Xi wanted China to be at the tech frontier. 5 years on, tensions with the U.S. have dented that goal
Chinese President Xi Jinping proposing a toast at the welcome banquet for leaders attending the Belt and Road Forum at the Great Hall of the People on April 26, 2019 in Beijing, China.
Nicolas Asfouri | Getty Images
Xi Jinping once declared China should “prioritize innovation” and be on the “cutting-edge (of) frontier technologies, modern engineering technologies, and disruptive technologies.”
Since that speech in 2017, Beijing has spoken about technologies it wants to boost its prowess in, ranging from artificial intelligence to 5G technology and semiconductors.
Five years since Xi’s address at the Communist Party of China’s last National Congress, the global reality for the world’s second-largest economy has transformed. It comes amid an ongoing trade war with the U.S., challenges from Covid and a change in political direction at home that have hurt some of Beijing’s goals.
On Sunday, the 20th National Congress — held once every five years — will begin in Beijing. The high-level meeting is expected to pave the way for Xi to carry on as head of the Communist Party for an unprecedented third five-year term.
Xi will take stock of China’s achievements in science and technology, which have yielded mixed results.
“I agree it is a mixed bag,” Charles Mok, visiting scholar at the Global Digital Policy Incubator at Stanford University.
He said China sets “lofty” goals as it targets to be the best, but “they are limited politically and ideologically in terms of the strategies to reach them.”
Private tech enterprises are faltering under stricter regulation and a slowing economy. China is far from self-sufficient in semiconductors, a task made harder by recent U.S. export controls. Censorship on the mainland has tightened as well.
But China has made some notable advancements in areas such as 5G and space travel.
U.S.-China tech war
“It would seem that Xi underestimated the challenges China faced in overcoming its reliance on foreign, mostly U.S. firms…”
Paul Triolo
technology policy lead, Albright Stonebridge
Zero Covid
Another unforeseen event during the last five years is the outbreak of Covid, which originated in China and spread across the world.
While many countries dealt with the initial waves of the virus, they relied on vaccines and masking measures to eventually open up their economies after prolonged lockdowns and border closures.
China, however, has stuck to a policy of zero Covid, which involved locking down entire cities, including the major metropolis of Shanghai.
Semiconductor self-sufficiency
Beijing put a lot of focus on self-sufficiency in various areas of technology, but especially on semiconductors. The drive to boost China’s domestic chip industry was given further impetus as the trade war began.
In its its five-year development plan, the 14th of its kind, Beijing said it would make “science and technology self-reliance and self-improvement a strategic pillar for national development.”
One area it hoped to do so was in semiconductors.
But a number of restrictions by the U.S. has put a dent in those ambitions.
“It would seem that Xi underestimated the challenges China faced in overcoming its reliance on foreign, mostly U.S. firms, in key ‘core’ or ‘hard’ technologies such as semiconductors,” Paul Triolo, the technology policy lead at consulting firm Albright Stonebridge, told CNBC.
“He also did not account for growing U.S. concern over semiconductors as foundational to key technologies.”
Looking ahead, the latest package of U.S. controls will make a huge dent in China’s technology ambitions.
Paul Triolo
technology policy lead, Albright Stonebridge
Things did not look as “bleak” for China’s semiconductors in 2017 as they do now, Triolo said.
“Looking back, Xi should have redoubled efforts to bolster China’s domestic semiconductor manufacturing equipment sector, but even there, a heavy reliance on inputs such as semiconductors has made it difficult for Chinese firms to reproduce all elements of those complex supply chains.”
The Biden administration unveiled a slew of restrictions last week that aim to cut China off from key chips and manufacturing tools to make those semiconductors. Washington is looking to choke off supply of chips for critical technology areas like artificial intelligence and supercomputing.
Analysts previously told CNBC that this will likely hobble China’s domestic technology industry.
That’s because part of the rules also require certain foreign-made chips that use American tools and software in the design and manufacturing process, to obtain a license before being exported to China.
Chinese domestic chipmakers and design companies still rely heavily on American tools.
Chipmakers — like Taiwanese firm TSMC, the most advanced semiconductor manufacturer in the world —are also dependent on U.S. technology. That means any Chinese company relying on TSMC may be cut off from supply of chips.
Meanwhile, China does not have any domestic equivalent of TSMC. China’s leading chip manufacturer, SMIC, is still generations behind TSMC in its technology. And with the latest U.S. restrictions, it could make it difficult for SMIC to catch up.
So China is still a long way from self-sufficiency in semiconductors, even though Beijing is focusing heavily on it.
“Looking ahead, the latest package of U.S. controls will make a huge dent in China’s technology ambitions, because the curbs on advances semiconductors,” Triolo said. The curbs will “ripple across multiple associated sectors, and make it impossible for Chinese firms to compete in some areas, such as high performance computers, and AI related applications such as autonomous vehicles, that rely on hardware advances to make progress.”
China’s tech crackdown
A major hallmark of Xi’s last five years is how he has transformed China into one of the strictest regulatory regimes globally for technology.
Over the last two years, China’s once free-wheeling and fast-growing tech giants have come under heavy scrutiny.
It began in November 2020 when the $34.5 billion initial public offering of Ant Group, which would have been the biggest in the world, was pulled by regulators.
That sparked several months where regulators moved swiftly to introduce a slew of regulation in areas from antitrust to data protection.
In one of the first regulations of its kind globally, Beijing also passed a law which regulated how tech firms can use recommendation algorithms, underscoring the intense tightening that took place.
Looking back to Xi’s 2017 speech, there were hints that regulation was coming.
“We will provide more and better online content and put in place a system for integrated internet management to ensure a clean cyberspace,” Xi said at that time.
But the pace at which regulations were passed and the scope of the rules took investors off guard, and billions were wiped off the share prices of China’s biggest tech companies — including Alibaba and Tencent — in 2021 and 2022. They have yet to recover from those losses.
Analysts pointed out that even though there were mentions about cleaning up the internet, the swift nature of regulation that subsequently swept across China was unlikely to have been anticipated — even by Xi himself.
“While I believe that in 2017, Xi had absolutely become focused on strengthening platform regulation, I very much doubt that the rapid-fire nature of… [the regulation] was pre-planned,” Kendra Schaefer, partner at Trivium China consultancy, told CNBC.
Five years ago, Xi said the government would “do away with regulations and practices that impede the development of a unified market and fair competition, support the growth of private businesses, and stimulate the vitality of various market entities.”
This is another pledge that appears not to have been met. China’s technology giants are also posting their slowest growth in history, partly due to tighter regulations. Part of the story, analysts say, is about Xi exerting more control over powerful technology businesses that were perceived as a threat to the ruling Communist Party of China.
“It is obvious that they are not supporting the growth of private businesses,” Mok said. “In my view, they have not succeeded.”
“Think of it that they are putting the Party agenda and total control as the top priority … No one can be successful unless the Party is successful in sustaining its dominance and total control.”
China’s successes from 5G to space
Despite the challenges, China has found success in the realm of science and technology since 2017. Space exploration has been a key focus.
In 2020, a Chinese moon mission concluded with its spacecraft returning back to Earth with lunar samples, a first for the country. That same year, China completed its own satellite navigation system called Beidou, a rival to the U.S.-government owned Global Positioning System (GPS).
Last year, China landed an un-crewed spacecraft on Mars and is planning its first crewed mission to the Red Planet in 2033.
China was also one of the leading nations globally to roll out next-generation 5G mobile networks, which promise super-fast speeds and the ability to support new industries like autonomous driving.
In electric vehicles, China has also pushed ahead. The country is the largest electric car market in the world and home to CATL, the world’s largest EV battery maker, which is looking to expanding overseas.
What next for Xi’s tech policy?
The regulatory assault on the domestic technology sector, which has slowed in recent months, will not go away entirely.
Even if regulatory actions are “moving into a new phase” in Xi’s third term, companies like Alibaba and Tencent won’t necessarily see the breakneck growth speeds they’ve seen in the past, Mok said.
“Even if they find their feet, it is not the same ground. They won’t see that growth, because if China’s overall GDP and economy growth is like what people are talking about now for the next several years … then why should they even outperform the whole China market?” Mok said.
Without a doubt, technology will continue to be a key focus for Xi over the coming five years, with a focus on self-sufficiency. China will likely continue to strive for success in areas Beijing deems as “frontier” technologies such as artificial intelligence and chips.
But Xi’s job in tech is now that much harder.
“As the U.S. continues to ratchet up controls in other areas of technology, and squeeze technology investments in China via outbound investment reviews, the overall innovation engine in China, heretofore driven by the private sector, will also begin to sputter, and the government will have to increasingly step in with funding,” Triolo said.
“This is not necessarily a recipe for success, except for manufacturing heavy sectors, but not for advanced semiconductors, software, and AI.”
Microsoft Chairman and CEO Satya Nadella speaks at a press briefing on the company’s campus in Redmond, Washington, on May 20, 2024.
Jason Redmond | AFP | Getty Images
Microsoft is cutting a small percentage of jobs across departments, based on performance, the company confirmed to CNBC on Wednesday.
“At Microsoft we focus on high-performance talent,” a Microsoft spokesperson said in an email to CNBC on Wednesday. “We are always working on helping people learn and grow. When people are not performing, we take the appropriate action.”
Business Insider reported on the plans late Tuesday.
The job cuts will affect less than 1% of employees, said a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named in order to discuss private information.
Microsoft had 228,000 employees at the end of June. While the company’s net income margin of nearly 38% is close to its highest since the early 2000s, Microsoft’s stock underperformed its peers last year, rising 12% while the Nasdaq gained 29%.
Microsoft’s latest cuts are slim compared to recent downsizing efforts.
In early 2023, the company laid off 10,000 employees and consolidated leases. In January 2024, three months after completing the $75.4 billion Activision Blizzard acquisition, Microsoft’s gaming unit shed 1,900 jobs to reduce overlap.
As 2025 begins, Microsoft faces a more tenuous relationship with artificial intelligence startup OpenAI, which the company has backed to the tune of over $13 billion. The partnership helped propel Microsoft’s market cap past $3 trillion last year.
Over the summer, Microsoft added OpenAI to its list of competitors. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella used the phrase “cooperation tension” while discussing the relationship with investors Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley on a podcast released last month.
Meanwhile, the Microsoft 365 Copilot assistant, which draws on OpenAI technology, has yet to become pervasive in business. Analysts at UBS said in a note last month that they came away from Microsoft’s Ignite conference with the impression that Copilot rollouts “have been a bit slow/underwhelming.”
Microsoft is still touting its growth opportunities. Finance chief Amy Hood said in October that revenue growth from Microsoft’s Azure cloud will speed up in the first half of this year because of greater AI infrastructure capacity.
WATCH: Microsoft plans to spend $80 billion to build out AI this year
D-Wave Quantum CEO Alan Baratz said Nvidia’s Jensen Huang is “dead wrong” about quantum computing after comments from the head of the chip giant spooked Wall Street on Wednesday.
Huang was asked Tuesday about Nvidia’s strategy for quantum computing. He said Nvidia could make conventional chips that are needed alongside quantum computing chips, but that those computers would need 1 million times the number of quantum processing units, called qubits, that they currently have.
Getting “very useful quantum computers” to market could take 15 to 30 years, Huang told analysts.
Huang’s remarks sent stocks in the nascent industry slumping, with D-Wave plunging 36% on Wednesday.
“The reason he’s wrong is that we at D-Wave are commercial today,” Baratz told CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa on “The Exchange.” Baratz said companies including Mastercard and Japan’s NTT Docomo “are using our quantum computers today in production to benefit their business operations.”
“Not 30 years from now, not 20 years from now, not 15 years from now,” Baratz said. “But right now today.”
D-Wave’s revenue is still minimal. Sales in the latest quarter fell 27% to $1.9 million from $2.6 million a year earlier.
Quantum computing promises to solve problems that are difficult for current processors, such as decoding encryption, generating random numbers and large-scale simulations. Technologists have been working on it for decades, and companies including Nvidia, Microsoft and IBM are pursuing it today, alongside researchers at startups and universities.
Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., speaks while holding a Project Digits computer during the 2025 CES event in Las Vegas, Nevada, US, on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. Huang announced a raft of new chips, software and services, aiming to stay at the forefront of artificial intelligence computing. Photographer: Bridget Bennett/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
D-Wave was among a number of companies that enjoyed a revival of interest from investors in December, when Google announced a breakthrough in its own research. Google said it had completed a 100 qubit chip, the second of six steps in its strategy to build a quantum system with 1 million qubits.
D-Wave shares soared 178% in December after popping 185% the month prior. Quantum company Rigetti Computing, which plummeted 45% on Wednesday, quintupled in value last month. IonQ dropped 39% on Wednesday. The stock rose 14% in December following a 143% rally in November.
Baratz acknowledged that one approach to quantum computing, called gate-based, may be decades away. But he said uses an annealing approach, which can be deployed now.
While Huang’s “comments may not be totally off-base for gate model quantum computers, well, they are 100% off base for annealing quantum computers,” Baratz said.
Nvidia declined to comment.
Even after Wednesday’s slide, D-Wave shares are up about 600% in the last year, giving the company a market cap of $1.6 billion.
Quantum computing has also been boosted by investor interest in artificial intelligence, the technology that’s led to surging demand for Nvidia’s graphics processing units, which use conventional transistors instead of qubits. Nvidia’s market cap has increased by 168% in the past year to $3.4 trillion.
Baratz said D-Wave systems can solve problems beyond the capabilities of the fastest Nvidia-equipped systems.
“l’ll be happy to meet with Jensen any time, any place, to help fill in these gaps for him,” Baratz said.
A sign is posted in front of the eBay headquarters in San Jose, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Shares of eBay soared 8% Wednesday as Meta said it will allow some listings to show up on Facebook Marketplace, its popular platform connecting consumers for local item pickups and more.
EBay stock reached its highest level since November 2021.
The rollout will begin with a test in Germany, France and the United States, where buyers will be able to view listings directly on Marketplace and complete the rest of their transactions on eBay, Meta said in a release.
The partnership could provide a boost to eBay’s marketplace business, which has struggled to compete with e-commerce rivals like Amazon, Walmart, Temu and even Facebook’s own marketplace platform that lets users buy and sell items.
EBay has recently embraced niche categories like collectibles and luxury goods to try and keep buyers and sellers returning to its site. CEO Jamie Iannone told CNBC in an October interview that shoppers were coming to the site, known for its used and refurbished goods, as they sought out discounts amid a rocky macroeconomic environment.
Meta’s move is an attempt to appease the European Commission, the executive body of the European Union, after the regulator fined the company 797 million euros ($821 million) in November for tying its Marketplace product to the main Facebook app.
At the time, the Commission said that Meta’s bundling of Marketplace with Facebook could mean competitors are effectively “foreclosed” given the distribution reach of the platform. Facebook counts more than 3 billion users globally.
The Commission also said that Meta imposes “unfair trading conditions” on other online classified ads service providers who advertise on its platforms, especially Facebook and Instagram. It added that these conditions allow Meta to use data generated from other advertisers to benefit Marketplace.
Meta appealed the ruling at the time, saying that it “ignores the realities of the thriving European market for online classified listing services.”
“While we disagree with and continue to appeal the European Commission’s decision on Facebook Marketplace, we are working quickly and constructively to build a solution which addresses the points raised,” the company said Wednesday.
EBay touted its integration with Facebook Marketplace as a way for the e-commerce site to “increase exposure to our sellers’ listings, on and off eBay, as part of our strategy to engage buyers and deepen customer loyalty.”
Facebook in 2023 announced a similar partnership with Amazon that lets users browse and purchase products without leaving the app.
WATCH: Will AI stocks push higher in 2025? Nvidia investor shares his outlook
Additional reporting by CNBC’s Annie Palmer.
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