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The pound and UK government bond yields have recovered in anticipation of a key statement from the new chancellor tasked with sorting out the fallout from the government’s disastrous mini-budget.

Sterling had fallen to a record low against the dollar at the end of September, after the short-lived then chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled the biggest programme of tax cuts for 50 years.

Mr Kwarteng, who was sacked on Friday after just 38 days in the job, paid the price for a giveaway that called into question the government’s economic credibility on financial markets.

The mini-budget led not just to a collapse in the value of the pound, but also prompted a surge in borrowing costs – forcing an unprecedented intervention by the Bank of England (BoE).

However, following the prime minister’s announcement on Friday that Mr Kwarteng had been sacked and that corporation tax would rise to 25% from April next year instead of being kept at 19%, there was a partial recovery for the UK currency and bond yields.

Mr Kwarteng’s replacement, former foreign and health secretary Jeremy Hunt, has since promised to win back the confidence of the financial markets by fully accounting for the government’s tax and spending plans.

Sterling gained 1.1% to hit $1.1294 on Monday at one stage and also made strides versus the euro when the Treasury revealed that Mr Hunt would deliver key parts of a medium-term plan later on Monday in support of “fiscal sustainability”.

The statement – released before UK financial markets opened – added that Mr Hunt met the BoE governor Andrew Bailey and the head of the Debt Management Office on Sunday night to brief them on the plans.

There would be a select few announcements brought forward from the medium-term fiscal plan that is due to be revealed on 31 October.

The bond markets also suggested an easing of the recent pressure, given additional concerns in some quarters after the BoE on Friday concluded its emergency gilt market support on Friday.

The Bank issued its own statement ahead of the open to say that its operations, aimed at helping pension funds battling higher collateral demands, had enabled a “significant increase in the resilience of the sector”.

It reiterated that other liquidity options remained available, if needed, to ensure smooth financing.

Any rises in government borrowing costs, through a gilt yield rise, would have reflected additional jitters.

‘Unruly pupils are still scheming to oust the beleaguered head’

But there was a downwards shift, with both the UK 20 and 30 year yields falling by more than 30 basis points in early trading.

CHANCELLOR SECURES SOME BREATHING SPACE


Paul Kelso - Health correspondent

Paul Kelso

Business correspondent

@pkelso

When markets closed on Friday, after a dramatic day that saw a chancellor sacked and a totemic economic policy junked, the verdict was troubling:

A sell off UK gilts had gathered pace before, during and after the Prime Minister’s press conference, and the closing bell could not come fast enough.

After Jeremy Hunt spent the weekend signalling a dramatic change in course to reassure the investors on whom confidence in the UK economy rests, the Treasury was plainly not going to take any chances on Monday morning.

That explains the pre-dawn announcement that the new chancellor would be bringing forward U-turns on Kwasi Kwarteng’s calamitous mini-budget.

The aim was to secure breathing space, a stay of execution from markets that could, had they continued to sense vulnerability, deepened the crisis and ended the fiscal repositioning before it began.

The need was all the more acute as this was the first Monday in a fortnight when the Bank of England was not acting as backstop to the gilt markets, its emergency intervention having been withdrawn on Friday, in part triggering the political meltdown that ended the week.

The response was precisely the one the Treasury and Downing Street wanted to see; the first move of UK gilt yields, a measure of the effective cost of Government borrowing, was down.

Yields on 10, 20 and 30-year bonds all moved down as trading began in London at 8am, a trend that if it lasts between now and 31st October, when the Office for Budget Responsibility delivers its calculation of the state of the public finances, has immense political and practical implications.

The gilt markets matter not just because they are an expression of confidence in a nation’s creditworthiness. Government bonds are the mechanism through which states borrow, and the less faith there is in your plan, the more it costs.

And those borrowing costs are central to the calculations the Treasury and the OBR are making. The UK has £2.4trn of debt and under the Truss plans was going to take on tens of billions more to fund tax cuts.

With market confidence evaporating (and gilt yields rising) the cost of that borrowing, old and new, rose. If yields can be brought down the cost of borrowing will fall, cutting billions from one side of the government’s balance sheet, which could in return reduce the need for cuts.

The next hours and days will be pivotal.

Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said other risk factors remained at play despite the initial recovery.

”New chancellor Jeremy Hunt has the air of a troubleshooting teacher brought in to turn around a failing school and faces his first big presentation test today with an emergency budget plan wheeled out to try and calm financial markets.

New Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt leaves 10 Downing Street

“This is all part of his charm offensive to instil confidence in the government’s ability to be fiscally responsible, but behind him unruly pupils are still scheming to oust the beleaguered head,” she wrote.

Can Truss remain PM?

It reflects a renewed focus on whether Ms Truss, the architect of the government’s initial economic strategy, can remain in the job.

A Tory MP told Sky News: “The idea that the prime minister can just scapegoat her chancellor and move on is deluded.

“This is her vision. She signed off on every detail and she defended it.”

The Conservative Party is now on its fifth chancellor in the past three years – Mr Hunt, Mr Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid.

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Barclays fined £40m over ‘reckless’ financial crisis capital raising

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Barclays fined £40m over 'reckless' financial crisis capital raising

Barclays has been fined £40m over capital raising that averted its need for taxpayer aid during the 2008 financial crisis.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) found that the bank should have disclosed more details to the stock market about the £11.8bn in funding, from Qatari and other sovereign investors, that it had previously described as “reckless” and lacking integrity.

The penalty followed a protracted investigation that began in 2013 but was held up by criminal proceedings brought by the Serious Fraud Office that led to the acquittal of all defendants charged, including Barclays.

A decision by the bank not to refer the FCA’s enforcement case to an Upper Tribunal meant that the watchdog’s planned fine could be imposed.

Its regulatory action concerned Barclays’ navigation of the events of 2008 when the-then Labour government took huge stakes in major lenders, including Lloyds and RBS – now NatWest – to prevent a collapse of the banking system.

The FCA said of its action: “The events in 2008 were of national importance as banks sought emergency recapitalisation.

“The FCA has a primary objective to ensure market integrity. Banks should treat their obligations to the market and shareholders seriously.”

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Barclays was yet to comment.

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‘When you hit profits, you hit growth’: Businesses criticise biggest budget tax increase in decades

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'When you hit profits, you hit growth': Businesses criticise biggest budget tax increase in decades

Tax rises announced during the recent budget will hit businesses rather than encourage growth, the head of one of the UK’s most prominent business groups will warn on Monday.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has joined a choir of voices opposing Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s fiscal measures, which the Labour Party claims are needed to plug a £22bn “black hole” left by 14 years of Tory government.

Labour put growth at the heart of their campaigning during the last general election, but business believe the £40bn tax rises announced last month – the largest such increase at a budget since John Major’s government in 1993 – will stifle investment.

Rain Newton-Smith, who heads the CBI, is expected to say at the group’s annual conference in London that “too many businesses are having to compromise on their plans for growth”.

She will say: “Across the board, in so many sectors, margins are being squeezed and profits are being hit by a tough trading environment that just got tougher.

“And here’s the rub, profits aren’t just extra money for companies to stuff in a pillowcase. Profits are investment.”

Ms Newton-Smith will add: “When you hit profits, you hit competitiveness, you hit investment, you hit growth.”

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which monitors the government’s spending plans and performance, has previously said most of the burden from the tax increase will be passed on to workers through lower wages, and consumers through higher prices.

Last week, dozens of retail bosses signed a letter to the chancellor warning of dire consequences for the economy and jobs if she pushes ahead with budget plans.

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Up to 79 signatories joined British Retail Consortium’s (BRC’s) scathing response to the fiscal announcement, which claimed Labour’s tax rises would increase their costs by £7bn next year alone.

It warned that higher costs, from measures such as higher employer National Insurance contributions and National Living Wage increases next year, would be passed on to shoppers and hit employment and investment.

The letter, backed by the UK boss of the country’s largest retailer Tesco, said: “The sheer scale of new costs and the speed with which they occur create a cumulative burden that will make job losses inevitable, and higher prices a certainty.”

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From October: ‘Raising taxes was not an easy decision’

‘Businesses will now have to make a choice’

A few days after the budget, Chancellor Reeves admitted she was “wrong” to say higher taxes were not needed during the election campaign – as she warned businesses may have to make less money or pay staff less to cover a tax increase.

But she claimed the previous government had “hid” the “huge black hole” in finances and she only discovered the extent of it once her party was voted in.

She told Sky News’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips: “Yes, businesses will now have to make a choice, whether they will absorb that through efficiency and productivity gains, whether it will be through lower profits or perhaps through lower wage growth.”

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ITV back in spotlight as suitors screen potential bids

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ITV back in spotlight as suitors screen potential bids

Potential suitors have again begun circling ITV, Britain’s biggest terrestrial commercial broadcaster, after a prolonged period of share price weakness and renewed questions about its long-term strategic destiny.

Sky News has learnt that a number of possible bidders for parts or all of the company, whose biggest shows include Love Island, have in recent weeks held early-stage discussions about teaming up to pursue a potential transaction.

TV industry sources said this weekend that CVC Capital Partners and a major European broadcaster – thought to be France’s Groupe TF1 – were among those which had been starting to study the merits of a potential offer.

The sources added that RedBird Capital-owned All3Media and Mediawan, which is backed by the private equity giant KKR, were also on the list of potential suitors for the ITV Studios production arm.

One cautioned this weekend that none of the work on potential bids was at a sufficiently advanced stage to require disclosure under the UK’s stock market disclosure rules, and suggested that ITV’s board – chaired by Andrew Cosslett – had not received any recent unsolicited approaches.

That meant that the prospects of any formal approach materialising was highly uncertain.

The person added, however, that Dame Carolyn McCall, ITV’s long-serving chief executive, had been discussing with the company’s financial advisers the merits of a demerger or other form of separation of its two main business units.

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Its main banking advisers are Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Robey Warshaw.

ITV’s shares are languishing at just 65.5p, giving the whole company a market capitalisation of £2.51bn.

The stock rose more than 5% on Friday amid vague market chatter about a possible takeover bid.

Bankers and analysts believe that ITV Studios, which made Disney+’s hit show, Rivals, would be worth more than the entire company’s market capitalisation in a break-up of ITV.

People close to the situation said that under one possible plan being studied, CVC could be interested in acquiring ITV Studios, with a European broadcast partner taking over its broadcasting arm, including the ITVX streaming platform.

“At the right price, it would make sense if CVC wanted the undervalued production business, with TF1 wanting an English language streaming service in ITVX, along with the cashflows of the declining channels,” one broadcasting industry veteran said this weekend.

“They would only get the assets, though, in a deal worth double the current share price.”

Takeover speculation about ITV, which competes with Sky News’ parent company, has been a recurring theme since the company was created from the merger of Carlton and Granada more than 20 years ago.

ITV said this month that it would seek additional cost savings of £20m this year as it continued to deal with the fallout from last year’s strikes by Hollywood writers and actors.

It added that revenues at the Studios arm would decline over the current financial year, with advertising revenues sharply lower in the fourth quarter than in the same period a year earlier because of the tough comparison with 2023’s Rugby World Cup.

Allies of Dame Carolyn, who has run ITV since 2018, argue that she has transformed ITV, diversifying further into production and overhauling its digital capabilities.

The majority of ITV’s revenue now comes from profitable and growing areas, including ITVX and the Studios arm, they said.

By 2026, those areas are expected to account for more than two-thirds of the group’s sales.

This year, its production arm was responsible for the most-viewed drama of the year on any channel or platform, Mr Bates versus The Post Office.

In its third-quarter update earlier this month, Dame Carolyn said the company’s “good strategic progress has continued in the first nine months of 2024 driven by strong execution and industry-leading creativity”.

“ITV Studios is performing well despite the expected impact of both the writer’s strike and a softer market from free-to-air broadcasters.”

She said the unit would achieve record profits this year.

ITV and CVC declined to comment, while TF1, RedBird and Mediawan did not respond to requests for comment.

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