Chancellor’s cull of more mini-budget giveaways eases financial market pressures

Published

2 years ago

October 17, 2022

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Financial markets have reacted positively to the new chancellor’s cull of more costly measures in his predecessor’s disastrous mini-budget.

Jeremy Hunt revealed in a televised statement that he would no longer be proceeding with almost all the controversial package, including the reduction in the basic rate of income tax from 20% to 19% from next April.

The main revelation was that the energy price guarantee, effectively capping wholesale costs for households over the next two years, would stall in April with its future make-up to become the subject of a Treasury-led review.

It would also, the chancellor said, be more targeted towards the worse off.

The moves, while potentially damaging for family finances next year, were welcomed by investors as the pound gained further lost ground against the dollar.

It stood above $1.13 at one stage – up by almost a cent and a half – before stabilising just below $1.13.

Sterling was also up by just over a cent versus the euro at $1.16.

UK government borrowing costs eased further too.

Yields – the effective interest rate demanded in return for holding UK public debt – on 20 and 30-year bonds were down by more than 40 basis points.

Sterling had fallen to a record low against the dollar and yields surged to 20-year highs at the end of September, after the short-lived then chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled the biggest programme of tax cuts for 50 years.

Mr Kwarteng, who was sacked on Friday after just 38 days in the job, paid the price for a tax and spending package that called into question the government’s economic credibility on financial markets.

The mini-budget forced an unprecedented intervention by the Bank of England (BoE) which had to prop up pension funds as they faced demands for higher collateral at the height of the market mayhem.

The pound and bond yields started to move in the right direction after the prime minister’s announcement on Friday that Mr Kwarteng was going and that corporation tax would rise to 25% from April next year instead of being kept at 19%.

Mr Hunt, a former foreign and health secretary, promised to win back the confidence of the financial markets by fully accounting for the government’s tax and spending plans.

His statement on Monday was aimed at supporting “fiscal sustainability”.

Mr Hunt met the BoE governor Andrew Bailey and the head of the Debt Management Office on Sunday night to brief them on his plans.

A full medium-term fiscal plan, containing analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility, is still due to be revealed on 31 October.

‘Unruly pupils are still scheming to oust the beleaguered head’

There remained an elephant in the room as far as financial analysts were concerned – the fate of the architect of the government’s initial economic strategy, Liz Truss.

Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: ”This is all part of his (Mr Hunt’s) charm offensive to instil confidence in the government’s ability to be fiscally responsible, but behind him unruly pupils are still scheming to oust the beleaguered head,” she wrote.

Joshua Raymond, director at online investment platform XTB.com, said of the chancellor’s update: “It’s a complete reversal on every single major political pledge she has made to date and as a result, her political authority is most likely at an end.

“In a matter of days, I expect the market focus to shift more towards who replaces Liz Truss as prime minister of the UK.

“Liz Truss today became prime minister in name only.”

Can Truss remain as PM?

A Tory MP told Sky News: “The idea that the prime minister can just scapegoat her chancellor and move on is deluded.

“This is her vision. She signed off on every detail and she defended it.”

The Conservative Party is now on its fifth chancellor in the past three years – Mr Hunt, Mr Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid.

Business

Trio of property giants oppose Cineworld rent cuts plan

Published

11 hours ago

September 20, 2024

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Trio of property giants oppose Cineworld rent cuts plan

A trio of property giants has lodged a protest against a radical financial restructuring that will see Cineworld imposing steep rent cuts on its landlords.

Sky News has learnt that British Land, Landsec and Legal & General Investment Management all voted against the cinema operator’s restructuring plan this week.

Cineworld has confirmed plans to close six of its UK multiplexes, but documents circulated to creditors show almost 50 others are in categories requiring landlords to agree to revised rent deals in order to ensure their long-term viability.

Although they carry significant influence in the commercial property sector, the trio’s protest will have no impact on the outcome of the company’s proposals, since its owners are now also among its largest creditors, meaning they can effectively force the deal through.

According to documents sent to creditors during the summer, 33 sites – categorised as Class B – “require a reduction of rent to ERV [Estimated Rental Value] Rent in order to place the sites on a viable long-term footing”.

A further 38 of Cineworld’s cinemas would be unaffected, while another 16 Class C1 and C2 leases require reductions to either turnover rent or zero rent in order to render them financially viable.

The documents added that the company did not have sufficient funding to meet a quarterly rent bill on June 24 of £15.9m.

“The UK group did not have sufficient liquidity to make the June 2024 Rent Payment and required further funding from the US Group to meet this liquidity need.

“Absent this funding, the UK Group would have been insolvent on a cashflow basis.”

Cineworld is being advised by AlixPartners.

Other cinema operators are now poised to step in to take over some of Cineworld’s sites.

The company trades from more than 100 locations in Britain, including at the Picturehouse chain, and employs thousands of people.

Cineworld grew under the leadership of the Greidinger family into a global giant of the industry, acquiring chains including Regal in the US in 2018 and the British company of the same name four years earlier.

Its multibillion-dollar debt mountain led it into crisis, though, and forced the company into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2022.

It delisted from the London Stock Exchange last August, having seen its share price collapse amid fears for its survival.

Cineworld also operates in central and Eastern Europe, Israel and the US.

Business

Consumer confidence slumps following warnings of ‘tough choices’ in budget ahead

Published

18 hours ago

September 20, 2024

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Consumer confidence slumps following warnings of 'tough choices' in budget ahead

A long-running measure of consumer confidence has slumped to levels last seen at the start of the year following warnings of “tough choices” ahead in the looming budget.

GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index fell seven points in September to minus 20, with significant drops in predictions for personal finances and the general economy over the coming year.

The report’s authors suggested it was “not encouraging news” for the new government, which has made growing the economy its top priority.

Money latest: Millions already buying mince pies ahead of Christmas

But within weeks of taking the post of chancellor, Rachel Reeves – followed by prime minister Sir Keir Starmer – moved to warn of a legacy £22bn “black hole” in the public finances and said it would result in a painful budget on 30 October.

Among measures already taken include cuts to winter fuel payments, leaving up to 10 million pensioners up to £300 worse off, and inflation-busting public sector pay settlements.

Tax rises and spending cuts are widely expected in next month’s statement to MPs though The Times reported on Friday that a decision by the Bank of England to slow a programme of loss-making bond sales would leave Ms Reeves £10bn better off than she had anticipated.

It added that she was still expected to push forward with her budget plans anyway as a signal of her commitment to fiscal discipline.

The latest snapshot on the public finances, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday showed net borrowing of £13.7bn during August.

Its chief economist, Grant Fitzner, said: “Borrowing was up by over £3bn last month on 2023’s figure, and was the third highest August borrowing on record.

“Central government tax receipts grew strongly, but this was outweighed by higher expenditure, largely driven by benefits uprating and higher spending on public services due to increased running costs and pay.”

Consumer spending accounts for around 60% of the UK economy.

Data released separately on Friday showed a 1% rise in retail sales volumes during August in the wake of weakness, mostly blamed on poor weather, over the previous couple of months.

The ONS said that the increase was driven by supermarket sales, as demand for BBQ food and drinks rose due to the arrival of some sunshine over the key holiday month.

It also credited discounting by clothing retailers.

The data chimes with the latest updates from big retailers, including Next and B&Q’s owner, which have spoken of weak demand for so-called big ticket items such as home furnishings and kitchens respectively.

GfK’s closely-watched survey showed expectations for the general economy over the next 12 months fell by 12 points to -27, while the forecast for personal finances was down nine points to -3.

Commenting on its key measures, including the headline figure, consumer insights director at GfK Neil Bellamy said: “These three measures are key forward-looking indicators so despite stable inflation and the prospect of further cuts in the base interest rate, this is not encouraging news for the UK’s new government.”

He added: “Strong consumer confidence matters because it underpins economic growth and is a significant driver of shoppers’ willingness to spend.

“Following the withdrawal of the winter fuel payments, and clear warnings of further difficult decisions to come on tax, spending and welfare, consumers are nervously awaiting the budget decisions on October 30.”

Business

Whitehall on alert as construction group ISG heads for collapse

Published

19 hours ago

September 20, 2024

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Whitehall on alert as construction group ISG heads for collapse

Thousands of construction industry jobs are at risk as ISG, a construction group which builds prisons and police stations, faces imminent collapse.

Sky News has learnt that Whitehall officials are lining up City advisers to work on contingency plans for ISG, which is expected to formally appoint administrators on Friday.

EY is on standby to handle the insolvency proceedings.

Money latest: Millions already buying mince pies ahead of Christmas

Construction industry sources said that government officials were closely monitoring the crisis at ISG, which is expected to be the biggest casualty in the sector since Carillion collapsed in 2018.

ISG employs about 2400 people and counts Apple, Barclays and Google among its private sector clients in the UK.

It is also understood to be involved in construction projects for leading City law firms including Addleshaw Goddard.

One insider said that EY would be appointed as administrator to eight ISG entities, including ISG Central Services and ISG Interior Services.

The accountancy firm is said to have been scrambling to find a buyer for the company after a South African bidder pulled out of talks several days ago.

ISG is owned by Cathexis, a Texan-based investor.

EY and the Cabinet Office declined to comment.