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It’s a sign of how bad things are for the new prime minister that only her third Prime Minister’s Questions is being billed as a potentially defining moment in her short premiership.

MPs tell me that how Liz Truss performs at the dispatch box against Sir Keir Starmer at their weekly joust will be an acid test for the prime minister put on notice by her party.

Having dodged questions on Friday when she reversed key planks of her economic plan, and then left it to her new chancellor complete the mini-Budget and two-year energy support plan reversal, this PMQs will be a moment of reckoning.

Truss under pressure: Latest live updates

Many of her party doubt she can meet the moment and think a poor performance will again reignite calls for her go.

“I can’t see what she says at PMQs,” one former minister told me. “Her reputation’s in shreds.”

For the opposition this a “moment of jeopardy” to exploit. “On the Labour side looking across you can see a PM’s authority draining away – as we saw with Johnson.

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“I’m sure sets of electrodes are being handed to MPs to bounce up and down in support of the prime minister.

“But it will a big moment, and isn’t just about exchanges with Keir Starmer, the most damaging stuff can come from their own side.”

We saw that back in January when David Davis, the former cabinet minister, used PMQs to publicly call on Mr Johnson to resign. And just moments before that happened Bury South MP Christian Wakeford crossed the floor of the House, defecting from the Conservatives to Labour in another body blow for an embattled prime minister.

Mr Johnson clung on for another six months in a rolling political and leadership crisis, finally being pushed out from Downing Street after dozens of ministers quit his government. As he put it in his resignation speech: “When the herd moves it moves.”

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January 2022: Johnson told ‘in the name of God, go’

This PMQs will be the latest test of that herd mentality with MPs muttering that she needs to put in a strong showing. She is undoubtedly in deep trouble, with five MPs calling for her publicly to go – although many are privately saying the same.

But if a bad performance is further destabilising, a good performance will now do little to change the fortunes for Ms Truss beyond the immediate moment.

All the talk in Westminster – apart from those cabinet ministers taking to the airwaves to try to shore her up, is about the timing and mechanism for removing and replacing her. The polling around her is disastrous with only one in 10 Britons satisfied with her.

It is the worst polling ever for any leader, from which there is likely no way back. One former cabinet minister told me this week that they thought 90 per cent of the party thought Ms Truss had to go and said Sir Graham Brady will, at some point, have to go to the PM and tell her she no longer has the support of her party and can either stand aside or see a rule change that would force a confidence vote in the PM.

Changing the rules?

What I hear Sir Graham is now working on is a change in the nominations to basically try to force a unity candidate onto the party and avoid a drawn-out run-off in which party members get the final say.

There is talk of setting the nominations bar as perhaps around a third of the parliamentary party – something like 100 or 120 votes. At that level the likely trio with a chance at the top job would be Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt or Penny Mordaunt.

But the aim might be to set the threshold at the level that only one could reach in order to settle the matter quickly, and amongst MPs rather than members, who polling now shows they regret their choice of Ms Truss.

If it all sounds ferociously complicated, that’s because it is. And it comes back to the point that there is not an obvious unity candidate, while MPs are desperate to avoid a protracted run-off – two reasons helping Mr Truss stay in post.

But even if the herd isn’t quite ready to stampede, the outlook is treacherous for the prime minister.

Read more: Which Tory MPs are calling for Truss to go – and how could the PM be ousted?

Her new chancellor told me this week after he had ripped up the mini-Budget and reversed £32bn of tax cuts that there would be “eye-wateringly difficult decisions” to take around spending. That’s because he has to fill a fiscal black hole running to perhaps £40bn-£50bn through spending cuts and further tax rises.

One former cabinet minister told me that the cuts Mr Hunt is eyeing will be much bigger than those dealt by former chancellor George Osborne. “They might end up having to do double the amount of cuts than in the austerity years. Jeremy is really worried about it.”

Unease over spending cuts

And so he should be. MPs and ministers are already agitating against potential spending cuts, after Mr Hunt on Monday put everything back on the table. He refused in an interview with me on Monday to commit to uprating pension or benefits by inflation or honouring Liz Truss’s promise to lift defence spending to 3% of GDP by the end of the decade.

The Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and his deputy James Heappey have suggested they could quit if this pledge is reversed, while two MPs have already publicly said they will not support the government if it attempts to end the pensions triple lock.

“Pensioners should not be paying the price for the cost of living crisis whether caused by the war in Ukraine or mini budgets,” wrote Tory MP Maria Caulfield on Twitter last night.

Mr Hunt is also eyeing up additional taxes to raise funds for government coffers. Options include possible windfall taxes on banks and energy companies – again Ms Truss vowed not to introduce an energy windfall tax when she became PM – as a way to help plug the gap.

It goes without saying that all of this is fraught with political difficulty and if the markets decide Mr Hunt can’t get his spending cuts through parliament and begin selling off government debt, there could be another bout of market turbulence, with all the potentially fatal fall-out that has for Ms Truss. That fiscal statement, billed for 31 October, really could prove a frightful event.

PMQs is undoubtedly a huge test for the prime minister today whose reputation has been shredded this week. But this is just the first test of many she’s going to face. For now, this is a PM and a No 10 just trying to survive from one day to the next.

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‘The future is in our hands’ scientists say, as 2024 becomes first year to pass 1.5C global warming threshold

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'The future is in our hands' scientists say, as 2024 becomes first year to pass 1.5C global warming threshold

Last year was the warmest on record, the first to breach a symbolic threshold, and brought with it deadly impacts like flooding and drought, scientists have said.

Two new datasets found 2024 was the first calendar year when average global temperatures exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – before humans started burning fossil fuels at scale.

The record heat has not only has real-world implications, as it contributed to deadly flooding in Spain and vicious drought in places like Zambia in southern Africa.

It is also highly symbolic.

Countries agreed in the landmark Paris Agreement to limit warming ideally to 1.5C, because after that the impacts would be much more dangerous.

The news arrives as California battles “hell on earth” wildfires, suspected to have been exacerbated by climate change.

And it comes as experts warn support for the Paris goals is “more fragile than ever” – with Donald Trump and the Argentinian president poised to row back on climate action.

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What caused 2024 record heat – and is it here to stay?

Friends of the Earth called today’s findings from both the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change service and the Met Office “deeply disturbing”.

The “primary driver” of heat in the last two years was climate change from human activity, but the temporary El Nino weather phenomenon also contributed, they said.

The breach in 2024 does not mean the world has forever passed 1.5C of warming – as that would only be declared after several years of doing so, and warming may slightly ease this year as El Nino has faded.

But the world is “teetering on the edge” of doing so, Copernicus said.

Prof Piers Forster, chair of the UK’s Climate Change Committee, called it a “foretaste of life at 1.5C”.

Dr Gabriel Pollen, Zambia’s national coordinator for disasters, said “no area of life and the economy is untouched” by the country’s worst drought in more than 100 years.

Six million people face starvation, critical hydropower has plummeted, blackouts are frequent, industry is “decimated”, and growth has halved, he said.

Paris goal ‘not obsolete’

Scientists were at pains to point out it is not too late to curb worse climate change, urging leaders to maintain and step up climate action.

Professor Forster said temporarily breaching 1.5C “does not mean the goal is obsolete”, but that we should “double down” on slashing greenhouse gas emissions and on adapting to a hotter world.

The Met Office said “every fraction of a degree” still makes a difference to the severity of extreme weather.

Firefighters battle the Palisades fire as it burns during a windstorm on the west side of Los Angeles.
Pic: Reuters
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The California fires were whipped up by strong, dry winds and likely worsened by climate change. Pic: Reuters

Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo added: “The future is in our hands: swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate”.

Climate action is ‘economic opportunity’

Copernicus found that global temperatures in 2024 averaged 15.10°C, the hottest in records going back to 1850, making it 1.60°C above the pre-industrial level during 1850-1900.

The Met Office’s data found 2024 was 1.53C above pre-industrial levels.

The figures are global averages, which smooth out extremes from around the world into one number. That is why it still might have felt cold in some parts of the world last year.

Greenpeace campaigner Philip Evans said as “the world’s most powerful climate denier” Donald Trump returns to the White House, others must “take up the mantle of global climate leadership”.

The UK’s climate minister Kerry McCarthy said the UK has been working with other countries to cut global emissions, as well as greening the economy at home.

“Not only is this crucial for our planet, it is the economic opportunity of the 21st century… tackling the climate crisis while creating new jobs, delivering energy security and attracting new investment into the UK.”

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Picture shows baby girl moments after birth on packed migrant dinghy heading for Canary Islands

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Picture shows baby girl moments after birth on packed migrant dinghy heading for Canary Islands

Photographs have captured the moments after a baby girl was born on a packed migrant dinghy heading for the Canary Islands.

The small boat was carrying 60 people and had embarked from Tan-Tan – a Moroccan province 135 nautical miles (250km) away.

One image shows the baby lying on her mother’s lap as other passengers help the pair.

The boat’s passengers – a total of 60 people, including 14 women and four children – were rescued by a Spanish coastguard ship.

Coastguard captain Domingo Trujillo said: “The baby was crying, which indicated to us that it was alive and there were no problems, and we asked the woman’s permission to undress her and clean her.

“The umbilical cord had already been cut by one of her fellow passengers. The only thing we did was to check the child, give her to her mother and wrap them up for the trip.”

Pic: Salvmento Maritimo/Reuters

Spanish coast guards wearing white suits work on a rescue operation as they tow a rubber boat carrying migrants, including a newborn baby, off the island off the Canary Island of Lanzarote, in Spain, in this handout picture obtained on January 8, 2025. SALVAMENTO MARITIMO/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES. MANDATORY CREDIT
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Coastguards rescued all 60 people aboard the boat. Pic: Salvmento Maritimo/Reuters


The mother and baby were taken for medical checks and treated with antibiotics, medical authorities said.

Dr Maria Sabalich, an emergency coordinator of the Molina Orosa University Hospital in Lanzarote, said: “They are still in the hospital, but they are doing well.”

When they are discharged from hospital, the pair will be moved to a humanitarian centre for migrants, a government official said.

They will then most likely be relocated to a reception centre for mothers and children on another of the Canary Islands, they added.

Thousands of migrants board boats attempting to make the perilous journey from the African coast to the Spanish Canaries each year.

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In 2024, a total of 9,757 people died on the route, according to Spanish migration charity Walking Borders.

Mr Trujillo said: “Almost every night we leave at dawn and arrive back late.

“This case is very positive, because it was with a newborn, but in all the services we do, even if we are tired, we know we are helping people in distress.”

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It’s not ‘traditional’ wildfire season – so why have the California fires spread so quickly?

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It's not 'traditional' wildfire season - so why have the California fires spread so quickly?

A real-life drama is unfolding just outside Hollywood. Ferocious wildfires have ballooned at an “alarming speed”, in just a matter of hours. Why?

What caused the California wildfires?

There are currently three wildfires torching southern California. The causes of all three are still being investigated.

The majority (85%) of all forest fires across the United States are started by humans, either deliberately or accidentally, according to the US Forest Service.

But there is a difference between what ignites a wildfire and what allows it to spread.

However these fires were sparked, other factors have fuelled them, making them spread quickly and leaving people less time to prepare or flee.

The main culprit so far is the Santa Ana winds.

Follow live: Malibu residents told to get ready to flee

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LA residents face ‘long and scary night ahead’

What are Santa Ana winds?

So-called Santa Ana winds are extreme, dry winds that are common in LA in colder winter months.

The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection warned strong Santa Ana winds and low humidity are whipping up “extreme wildfire risks”.

Winds have already topped 60mph and could reach 100mph in mountains and foothills – including in areas that have barely had any rain for months.

It has been too windy to launch firefighting aircraft, further hampering efforts to tackle the blazes.

These north-easterly winds blow from the interior of Southern California towards the coast, picking up speed as they squeeze through mountain ranges that border the urban area around the coast.

They blow in the opposite direction to the normal onshore flow that carries moist air from the Pacific Ocean into the area.

The lack of humidity in the air parches vegetation, making it more flammable once a fire is started.

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Wildfires spread as state of emergency declared

The ‘atmospheric blow-dryer’ effect

The winds create an “atmospheric blow-dryer” effect that will “dry things out even further”, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).

The longer the extreme wind persists, the drier the vegetation will become, he said.

“So some of the strongest winds will be at the beginning of the event, but some of the driest vegetation will actually come at the end, and so the reality is that there’s going to be a very long period of high fire risk.”

What role has climate change played?

California governor Gavin Newsom said fire season has become “year-round in the state of California” despite the state not “traditionally” seeing fires at this time of year – apparently alluding to the impact of climate change.

Scientists will need time to assess the role of climate change in these fires, which could range from drying out the land to actually decreasing wind speeds.

But broadly we know that climate change is increasing the hot, dry weather in the US that parches vegetation, thereby creating the fuel for wildfires – that’s according to scientists at World Weather Attribution.

But human activities, such as forest management and ignition sources, are also important factors that dictate how a fire spreads, WWA said.

Read more:
Terrifying firestorm tears through home of film stars
State of emergency as wildfires sweep through LA celebrity suburb

A U.S flag flies as fire engulfs a structure while the Palisades Fire burns during a windstorm on the west side of Los Angeles, California.
Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

Southern California has experienced a particularly hot summer, followed by almost no rain during what should be the wet season, said Professor Alex Hall, also from UCLA.

“And all of this comes on the heels of two very rainy years, which means there is plenty of fuel for potential wildfires.

“These intense winds have the potential to turn a small spark into a conflagration that eats up thousands of acres with alarming speed – a dynamic that is only intensifying with the warmer temperatures of a changing climate.”

The flames from a fire that broke out yesterday evening near a nature reserve in the inland foothills northeast of LA spread so quickly that staff at a care home had to push residents in wheelchairs and hospital beds down the street to a car park.

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