PMQs is a huge test for a prime minister trying to survive from one day to the next
It’s a sign of how bad things are for the new prime minister that only her third Prime Minister’s Questions is being billed as a potentially defining moment in her short premiership.
MPs tell me that how Liz Truss performs at the dispatch box against Sir Keir Starmer at their weekly joust will be an acid test for the prime minister put on notice by her party.
Having dodged questions on Friday when she reversed key planks of her economic plan, and then left it to her new chancellor complete the mini-Budget and two-year energy support plan reversal, this PMQs will be a moment of reckoning.
Truss under pressure: Latest live updates
Many of her party doubt she can meet the moment and think a poor performance will again reignite calls for her go.
“I can’t see what she says at PMQs,” one former minister told me. “Her reputation’s in shreds.”
For the opposition this a “moment of jeopardy” to exploit. “On the Labour side looking across you can see a PM’s authority draining away – as we saw with Johnson.
“I’m sure sets of electrodes are being handed to MPs to bounce up and down in support of the prime minister.
“But it will a big moment, and isn’t just about exchanges with Keir Starmer, the most damaging stuff can come from their own side.”
We saw that back in January when David Davis, the former cabinet minister, used PMQs to publicly call on Mr Johnson to resign. And just moments before that happened Bury South MP Christian Wakeford crossed the floor of the House, defecting from the Conservatives to Labour in another body blow for an embattled prime minister.
Mr Johnson clung on for another six months in a rolling political and leadership crisis, finally being pushed out from Downing Street after dozens of ministers quit his government. As he put it in his resignation speech: “When the herd moves it moves.”
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January 2022: Johnson told ‘in the name of God, go’
This PMQs will be the latest test of that herd mentality with MPs muttering that she needs to put in a strong showing. She is undoubtedly in deep trouble, with five MPs calling for her publicly to go – although many are privately saying the same.
But if a bad performance is further destabilising, a good performance will now do little to change the fortunes for Ms Truss beyond the immediate moment.
All the talk in Westminster – apart from those cabinet ministers taking to the airwaves to try to shore her up, is about the timing and mechanism for removing and replacing her. The polling around her is disastrous with only one in 10 Britons satisfied with her.
It is the worst polling ever for any leader, from which there is likely no way back. One former cabinet minister told me this week that they thought 90 per cent of the party thought Ms Truss had to go and said Sir Graham Brady will, at some point, have to go to the PM and tell her she no longer has the support of her party and can either stand aside or see a rule change that would force a confidence vote in the PM.
Changing the rules?
What I hear Sir Graham is now working on is a change in the nominations to basically try to force a unity candidate onto the party and avoid a drawn-out run-off in which party members get the final say.
There is talk of setting the nominations bar as perhaps around a third of the parliamentary party – something like 100 or 120 votes. At that level the likely trio with a chance at the top job would be Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt or Penny Mordaunt.
But the aim might be to set the threshold at the level that only one could reach in order to settle the matter quickly, and amongst MPs rather than members, who polling now shows they regret their choice of Ms Truss.
If it all sounds ferociously complicated, that’s because it is. And it comes back to the point that there is not an obvious unity candidate, while MPs are desperate to avoid a protracted run-off – two reasons helping Mr Truss stay in post.
But even if the herd isn’t quite ready to stampede, the outlook is treacherous for the prime minister.
Read more: Which Tory MPs are calling for Truss to go – and how could the PM be ousted?
Her new chancellor told me this week after he had ripped up the mini-Budget and reversed £32bn of tax cuts that there would be “eye-wateringly difficult decisions” to take around spending. That’s because he has to fill a fiscal black hole running to perhaps £40bn-£50bn through spending cuts and further tax rises.
One former cabinet minister told me that the cuts Mr Hunt is eyeing will be much bigger than those dealt by former chancellor George Osborne. “They might end up having to do double the amount of cuts than in the austerity years. Jeremy is really worried about it.”
Unease over spending cuts
And so he should be. MPs and ministers are already agitating against potential spending cuts, after Mr Hunt on Monday put everything back on the table. He refused in an interview with me on Monday to commit to uprating pension or benefits by inflation or honouring Liz Truss’s promise to lift defence spending to 3% of GDP by the end of the decade.
The Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and his deputy James Heappey have suggested they could quit if this pledge is reversed, while two MPs have already publicly said they will not support the government if it attempts to end the pensions triple lock.
“Pensioners should not be paying the price for the cost of living crisis whether caused by the war in Ukraine or mini budgets,” wrote Tory MP Maria Caulfield on Twitter last night.
Mr Hunt is also eyeing up additional taxes to raise funds for government coffers. Options include possible windfall taxes on banks and energy companies – again Ms Truss vowed not to introduce an energy windfall tax when she became PM – as a way to help plug the gap.
It goes without saying that all of this is fraught with political difficulty and if the markets decide Mr Hunt can’t get his spending cuts through parliament and begin selling off government debt, there could be another bout of market turbulence, with all the potentially fatal fall-out that has for Ms Truss. That fiscal statement, billed for 31 October, really could prove a frightful event.
PMQs is undoubtedly a huge test for the prime minister today whose reputation has been shredded this week. But this is just the first test of many she’s going to face. For now, this is a PM and a No 10 just trying to survive from one day to the next.
When Canada goes to the polls today, it might be the second election Donald Trump wins in six months.
The US president has transformed Canada’s political landscape, and the “Trump effect” looks like it will be the difference between winners and losers.
Tariffs, and his threat to annexe the country as the 51st state, have provoked a surge in Canadian nationalism, and it’s made a favourite of the candidate styled anti-Trump.
Step forward, Mark Carney: Former governor of the Bank of England, now Canadian prime minister.
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‘Canada will win’
His ruling Liberal party had been written off as an electoral contender. Canadians had turned their back on the party after a decade in power under Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau.
The opposition Conservative Party, under the effective leadership of Pierre Poilievre, grew to a 25-point lead in the polls on the promise of change on the economy, crime and a chronic housing crisis.
However, his conservative politics are more aligned with the neighbour in the White House and, in Canada right now, it’s not a good look.
Read more: Everything you need to know about the election
Pierre Poilievre led the Conservatives to a 25-point lead before Trudeau stepped down. Pic: Reuters
In a stunning reversal of fortune, the Conservative Party’s lead vanished within weeks, as Canadians turned to Carney as the choice to take on Trump.
If he wins, the swing from Conservative to Liberal will be the biggest swing in the polls in recent democratic history.
Carney, 60, is the former governor of the Bank of Canada, as well as England. He replaced Mr Trudeau as Liberal Party leader and Canadian prime minister after his predecessor stepped down last month.
Polls indicate that Canadians see Carney as a stronger choice to negotiate with Donald Trump. He is a veteran of economic turmoil, having dealt with the 2008 financial crisis and Brexit.
Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney after an English-language leaders’ debate in Montreal. Pic: Reuters
At a weekend news conference, Sky News asked the Canadian prime minister what lessons he’d learned from Brexit that could be applied to his dealings with Donald Trump.
He replied: “The lessons of Brexit are beginning to be applied. When you break off, or substantially rupture, trading relationships with your major trading partners, including the most important trading partner of the United States, you end up with slower growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, volatility, weaker currency, a weaker economy.
“We’re in the early stages of that in the United States, and that’s one of the important things here. With respect to influencing the president, with respect to the dynamics of a negotiation, America’s going to get weaker as time goes on, we’re going to get stronger.”
Canada’s vote is as close as it gets to a single-issue election.
Carney’s position as favourite is reinforced consistently by the opinion polls, although the gap narrowed as election day approached.
It could yet be tight.
World
Trump ‘very disappointed’ in Russian strikes on Ukraine and calls for Putin to ‘sit down and sign a deal’
Donald Trump has said he’s “very disappointed” with Russia as he continues to push for a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine.
On Saturday, the US president met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Vatican for their first face-to-face meeting since their explosive White House summit.
The Ukrainian president said the meeting ahead of Pope Francis’s funeral could end up being “historic.” Hours later, Mr Trump questioned Vladimir Putin’s appetite for peace in a Truth Social post.
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From Saturday: Trump meets Zelenskyy at funeral
Speaking before boarding Air Force One on Sunday, Mr Trump again said the meeting went well, and that the Ukrainian leader was “calmer”.
“I think he understands the picture, I think he wants to make a deal,” he said, before turning to Mr Putin and Russia.
“I want him to stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal,” the US president said, adding he was “very disappointed that they did the bombing of those places (including Kyiv, where nine people were killed in a Russian airstrike on Friday) after discussions”.
However, Mr Trump said he thinks Mr Zelenskyy is ready to give up Crimea, which the Ukrainian leader has repeatedly said he would refuse to do.
He added that “we’ll see what happens in the next few days” and said “don’t talk to me about Crimea, talk to Obama and Biden about Crimea”.
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, while Barack Obama was president.
Meanwhile, US secretary of state Marco Rubio told Sky’s US partner network NBC News that a peace deal to end the war was “closer in general than they’ve been any time in the last three years, but it’s still not there”.
“If this was an easy war to end, it would have been ended by someone else a long time ago,” he added on the Meet the Press show.
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It comes after North Korea confirmed it had deployed troops to fight for Russia, months after Ukraine and Western officials said its forces were in Europe.
State media outlet KCNA reported North Korean soldiers made an “important contribution” to expelling Ukrainian forces from Russian territory, likely to be the Kursk region.
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KCNA said leader Kim Jong Un made the decision to deploy troops to Russia and notified Moscow, and quoted him as saying: “They who fought for justice are all heroes and representatives of the honour of the motherland.”
It also quoted the country’s ruling Workers’ Party as saying the end of the battle to liberate Kursk showed the “highest strategic level of the firm militant friendship” between North Korea and Russia.
Last June, Mr Kim and Mr Putin signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty after a state visit – his first to the country in 24 years.
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From June 2024: Putin drives Kim around in luxury limo during state visit
The North Korean leader promised at the time “full support and solidarity to the Russian government, army and people in carrying out the special military operation in Ukraine”.
World
40 killed in blast at Iran’s biggest port as Tehran denies explosion ‘linked to fuel for missiles’
At least 40 people have been killed and several hundred more injured after an explosion and fire at Iran’s largest port, according to state media.
The blast, at the Shahid Rajaei container hub near the southern city of Bandar Abbas, happened on Saturday as Iran held a third round of talks with the US in Oman about Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Shipping containers burned, goods inside were badly damaged and the explosion was so powerful that windows several miles away were shattered, reports said.
Iranian Red Crescent rescuers work at the site of the blast. Pic: Reuters
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The blast at the Shahid Rajaei port happened as Iran and the US met for the third round of negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program.
Helicopters and aircraft dumped water from the air on the blaze and by Sunday afternoon it was 90% extinguished, the head of Iran’s Red Crescent Society told state media.
Officials said port activities had resumed in unaffected parts of Shahid Rajaei.
Out of the 752 people who had received treatment for their injuries, 190 were still being treated in medical centres on Sunday, according to Iran’s crisis management organisation.
Chemicals at the port were suspected to have worsened the blast, but the exact cause of the explosion was not clear.
Iran’s defence ministry denied international media reports that the explosion may be connected to the mishandling of solid fuel used for missiles.
The reports were “aligned with enemy psyops [psychological operations]”, according to a ministry spokesperson, who told state TV the blast-hit area did not contain any military cargo.
Firefighters work to extinguish the blaze. Pic: AP
Pic: AP
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According to the Associated Press, British security company Ambrey said that the port in March received sodium perchlorate, which is used to propel ballistic missiles and the mishandling of which could have led to the explosion.
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The Financial Times previously reported two Iranian vessels had shipped from China enough of the ingredient to propel up to 260 mid-range missiles.
It was reportedly to help Tehran replenish stocks after its missile attacks on Israel in 2024.
Iran’s military has sought to deny the delivery of sodium perchlorate from China.
Iran’s state-run Irna news agency reported on Sunday that Russian President Vladimir Putin deployed several emergency aircraft to Bandar Abbas to provide help.
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