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Liz Truss has announced she will be leaving Downing Street just six weeks into the job.

So how did the leader go from securing her place at the top of the Conservative Party to leaving the most powerful post in the country after just 44 full days in office?

Let’s take a look.

Politics live: Sunak favourite to be new PM after Truss resigns

Monday 5 September

After a lengthy contest over the summer, Ms Truss beat Rishi Sunak to win the Conservative leadership and to become the UK’s next prime minister.

She promised to “deliver a bold plan” to cut taxes and grow the economy, and told the membership: “I campaigned as a Conservative and I will govern as a Conservative.”

Tuesday 6 September

Ms Truss travelled to Balmoral to meet the Queen and to officially be asked to form a government.

After returning to Downing Street through the wind and rain, she gave a speech promising the country could “ride out the storm” of the cost of living crisis.

Queen Elizabeth II welcomes Liz Truss during an audience at Balmoral, Scotland, where she invited the newly elected leader of the Conservative party to become Prime Minister and form a new government. Picture date: Tuesday September 6, 2022.
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Just days before the Queen’s death, she asked Liz Truss to form a government.

The new prime minister then began to appoint her cabinet, with close allies Therese Coffey and Kwasi Kwarteng getting top jobs as health secretary and chancellor respectively.

Wednesday 7 September

After less than 24 hours in the top job, Truss held her first cabinet meeting before facing her inaugural Prime Minister’s Questions in the Commons.

She promised to take “immediate action” on energy bills, but refused Labour’s call for a further windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas companies, telling MPs: “We cannot tax our way to growth.”

Thursday 8 September

The PM returned to the Commons to outline her energy plan, promising to set a cap on household prices for two years and to offer support to businesses for six months.

But the key policy moment was soon overshadowed by the news breaking that the Queen was gravely ill.

At 6.30pm, the palace announced her death, and soon after, Ms Truss gave a speech on the steps of Downing Street saying the monarch had been “the rock on which modern Britain was built”.

9 to 19 September

The country moved into a period of national mourning, and the new prime minister played a key part as the UK said farewell to its monarch.

After leading tributes in the Commons, she attended the accession to the throne of King Charles, and followed him to cathedral services in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

King Charles III during his first audience with Prime Minister Liz Truss at Buckingham Palace, London, following the death of Queen Elizabeth II on Thursday. Picture date: Friday September 9, 2022.
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Lis Truss holds her first audience with King Charles

After her first official audience with the King, rumours circulated that she had advised him not to attend the COP27 climate change summit – something he is known to have strong views about – but this was dismissed by Downing Street.

And on the day of the funeral, Ms Truss gave a reading at the service.

Tuesday 20 September

Having hosted world leaders in London for the Queen’s funeral, the PM headed to New York for her first United Nations General Assembly.

She gave her speech to the gathered delegates, and had her first official one-on-one with US President Joe Biden.

Liz Truss holds a bilateral with US President Joe Biden at the UN building in New York
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Liz Truss holds a bilateral with US President Joe Biden at the UN building in New York.

In front of the cameras, he made sure to make one point clear to her following her plan to scrap parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol – part of the post-Brexit trade deal to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland.

“We are both committed to protecting the Good Friday Agreement of Northern Ireland and I’m looking forward to hearing what’s on your mind,” said Mr Biden.

Friday 23 September

Back in London and it was a big day for Ms Truss’s chancellor as he took to the despatch box in the Commons to deliver his so-called mini-budget, or “the growth plan”.

Some of Mr Kwarteng’s policies had been expected as the PM had made clear during her leadership campaign that she would reverse the rise in National Insurance to pay for health and social care, and lower taxes.

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Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announces tax cuts for 31 million people.

But the scale of tax cuts was immense, and particular ire was targeted at the decision to scrap the 45p tax rate for the highest earners in the country, that all the measures would be funded through borrowing, and that there was no fiscal analysis from the Office of Budget Responsibility.

And the markets were spooked, with yields on gilts immediately spiking higher due to the prospect of a big surge in government borrowing.

Monday 26 September

The bad reaction to the growth plan played into the hands of Labour over the weekend as the party gathered in Liverpool for its annual conference.

And things got worse after Mr Kwarteng took to the airwaves, promising there were more tax cuts to follow.

The pound plunged as the markets made their view on the new leadership in Downing Street clear, and the Bank of England said it would “not hesitate to change interest rates as necessary”.

Tuesday 27 September

The fall-out from the mini-budget continued to grow and the pound continued to plunge.

Mortgage lenders began to remove products as fears of interest rates soaring grew stronger.

But Ms Truss had to be convinced to issue a government statement in an attempt to calm the markets.

The Treasury promised an update would be given on 23 November on how the government would ensure borrowing would not spiral out of control.

However, in an extraordinary statement on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it was “closely monitoring” developments in the UK and urged Mr Kwarteng to “re-evaluate the tax measures”.

Wednesday 28 September

The markets were still in turmoil.

The chancellor organised a meeting with bankers to try to reassure them about his plans and underline his commitment to fiscal discipline, having held calls with concerned MPs the night before.

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng gestures during Britain's Conservative Party's annual conference in Birmingham, Britain, October 3, 2022. REUTERS/Toby Melville
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Kwasi Kwarteng faces the pressure at conference

But things went from bad to worse when the Bank of England was forced to intervene, launching a temporary bond-buying programme to prevent “material risk” to UK financial stability.

As calls increased for a U-turn and even Mr Kwarteng’s resignation, the government ruled it out, with one minister telling Sky News it was “bulls***t” to say the market chaos was due to the mini-budget.

Thursday 29 September

The chaos was not just in Westminster or the markets, it was getting through to voters as well.

After a united Labour conference and a well-received speech from party leader Sir Keir Starmer, the party surged ahead in the polls, totting up a massive 33-point lead in a YouGov poll, with many more positive surveys following over the coming days.

Pic: AP
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Sir Keir Starmer’s own conference speech is well received. Pic: AP

Translated to a general election, Sir Keir would get a vote share of 54% compared to just 21% for the Tories.

But the PM came out to defend her and Mr Kwarteng’s fiscal plans again, insisting the mini-budget was necessary to help people and businesses facing soaring living costs.

Sunday 2 October

The party faithful gathered in Birmingham for the Conservative Party conference, but many MPs stayed away amid the ongoing rows around the economic plan.

Ms Truss appeared on the BBC and made her first hint of an apology for the chaos, admitting she “should have laid the ground better” for the tax cutting mini-budget, saying she had “learnt from that” and would “make sure in future we will do a better job”.

But the rebellion was already swelling, specifically around the scrapping of the 45p tax rate, with former frontbenchers Michael Gove and Grant Shapps seeming to lead the charge.

The PM doubled down on the policy, appearing to throw her chancellor under the bus by saying it was a decision taken by Mr Kwarteng. But a spokesman later said the pair were “in lockstep” on the measure.

Monday 3rd October

The rebellion grows as MPs gossiped in the fringe events around the conference centre in Birmingham.

Mr Gove said he would vote against the 45p tax rate if it comes to the Commons, while chair of the Treasury Committee – and close Sunak ally – Mel Stride demanded OBR forecasts are brought forward.

Then came the U-turn. Mr Kwarteng confirmed the 45p plan had been scrapped just hours before he took to the stage for his conference speech, saying it had become a “distraction” and adding: “We get it, we have listened.”

Despite the blow to his authority, the chancellor insisted he has “not at all” considered resigning.

The PM echoed his comments, and insisted her focus is now “building a high growth economy”.

Tuesday 4 October

More questions were raised about the relationship between the PM and her chancellor after Ms Truss repeatedly refused to say whether she trusted Mr Kwarteng following the 45p tax rate U-turn.

But she told Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby that she had “absolutely no shame” about the change of direction.

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PM defends tax cut reversal

Meanwhile, a fresh battle emerged over whether the government would increase benefits in line with inflation – a pledge made by her predecessor Boris Johnson.

Cabinet cohesion appeared to fall by the wayside as Leader of the House Penny Mordaunt told reporters the rise should happen, while Home Secretary Suella Braverman accused MPs of staging a “coup” against the prime minister.

Wednesday 5 October

On the final day of conference, Ms Truss got up to give her keynote speech and vowed to “get Britain through the tempest”, insisting “everyone will benefit” from the result of her economic policies.

She told the audience she and her chancellor “will keep closely co-ordinating our monetary and fiscal policy” after the government’s tax-cutting mini-budget which caused such market turmoil.

And she coined the phrase “the anti-growth coalition” as she attacked Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP, protesters and unions.

Thursday 6 October

Conference over, and Ms Truss took to the international stage again, flying to Prague to meet with European leaders about their response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

She had bilateral meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, and Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala.

The summit also came after Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney revealed the UK and EU would be holding talks during the week to resolve issues around the Northern Ireland Protocol – part of the Brexit deal aimed at preventing a harder border on the island of Ireland.

But rows within her party over the mini-budget and future plans for benefits continued to roll on at home, and would need to be faced when she got back.

Friday 7 October

Worrying warnings were issued by the National Grid that the UK households and businesses might face planned three-hour outages to ensure that the grid does not collapse in the “unlikely” event gas supplies fall short of demand during the winter.

But on the same day, there was friction between Ms Truss and her Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg over a campaign to advise the public to watch their energy usage.

Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg arrives in Downing Street in London, ahead of a cabinet meeting. Picture date: Tuesday October 18, 2022.
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There were tensions over Jacob Rees-Mogg’s plans.

Mr Rees-Mogg was believed to have backed a £15m campaign for over the winter to give out public information on energy saving.

But the Times reported he was overruled by the PM as she was “ideologically opposed” to such an approach as it could be too interventionist.

Monday 10 October

As markets continued to voice concerns over the mini-budget and MPs increasingly demanded an earlier update on how the chancellor plans to pay for all the measures, Mr Kwarteng confirmed he would bring forward the date of his medium-term fiscal update from the end of November to Halloween.

A spokesperson said he wanted to set out his commitment to debt falling over the medium term “as soon as possible” and the new date was “the right time to do that”.

And the government committed to it being accompanied by that all-important OBR forecast.

Tuesday 11 October

After a turbulent conference season recess, MPs returned to Westminster, with Labour promising to step up pressure on the government to U-turn on its entire mini-budget.

The chancellor opened business with Treasury Questions, and MPs saw through Ms Truss’ reversal of the National Insurance hike from earlier this year.

But there was still debate within the Tory Party about the direction of the PM, with one MP suggesting she would need to reintroduce a rise in corporation tax to pay for her policies.

British Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng attend the annual Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, Britain, October 2, 2022. REUTERS/Hannah McKay
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The PM and chancellor say they are ‘in lockstep’ over their plans.

Meanwhile, it was leaked to the press that Ms Truss planned to ban solar panels from farmland, saying they were “a blight on the landscape”.

It caused uproar within her party and the climate change lobby, all amid her ongoing pledge to bring fracking to the UK.

Wednesday 12 October

Ahead of her second PMQs since winning the keys to Number 10, the government announced it would cap the revenues of renewable energy firms to stop them benefitting from record profits.

It was welcomed by Labour, who said it was the windfall tax they had been calling for – but they wanted more action on oil and gas companies.

During the main Commons event, Ms Truss then pledged not to cut public spending.

But it raised even more questions about how the government would pay for its plans, especially after the Institute for Fiscal Studies said the chancellor would need to find £60bn of cuts to cover them.

As Tories continued to voice their concerns and unrest grew, Ms Truss embarked on a so-called “charm offensive” to try to win back the critics within her own party, touring the tea rooms and appealing to members of the 1922.

Thursday 13 October

Mr Kwarteng got on a plane and headed to Washington DC to meet leaders of the IMF – a difficult meeting considering the organisation’s previous critcisim of his fiscal plans.

But the open revolt at home was growing, with the likes of former home secretary Priti Patel saying “market forces” could make a government U-turn on corporation tax cuts unavoidable.

Downing Street insisted the prime minister and the chancellor “remained committed” to the growth plan.

But late on Thursday, after a hasty briefing with journalists, the chancellor cut his trip short and got on a plane to head home amid rumours of further U-turns.

Mr Kwarteng insisted that his position was safe, saying: “I am not going anywhere.”

Friday 14 October

Straight from the airport, Mr Kwarteng headed to Number 10. And after just 38 days in the job, Ms Truss fired one of her closest friends and allies in an attempt to win back the confidence, not only of her party, but of the markets and the public.

In a letter to the PM, he said her “vision is the right one” but he “accepted” her position.

Within an hour, his successor was appointed – former health and foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt.

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt walks outside Downing Street in London, Britain October 20, 2022. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls
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Jeremy Hunt is appointed as Liz Truss’s new chancellor.

He came from a very different wing of the party, and again showed Ms Truss reaching out to try and reunite MPs behind her.

In a tense press conference later that afternoon, she confirmed the latest U-turn from her government – reintroducing the rise in corporation tax to 25% – saying: “The way we deliver our mission has to changed.”

But she added the “mission remains” to deliver a “low-tax, high-wage, high-growth economy”.

Saturday 15 October

The new chancellor hit the airwaves to hammer home the message it was all change in the Treasury.

Mr Hunt said there had been “mistakes” in the mini-budget from his predecessor and his boss, and that it had been an error to “fly blind” by not having an OBR forecast alongside it.

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‘You’re out of your depth, prime minister?’

He revealed the government “won’t have the speed of tax cuts we were hoping for and some taxes will go up”.

And asked if this would mean a return to austerity, he replied: “I don’t think we’re talking about austerity in the way we had it in 2010. But we’re going to have to take tough decisions on both spending and tax.”

Mr Hunt also released a statement on Saturday night saying his focus was on “growth underpinned by stability”.

Monday 17 October

By Monday, the U-turns were in full swing. Mr Hunt made a statement from the Treasury saying he was reversing “almost all” of the tax cuts announced in Mr Kwarteng’s mini-budget and was scaling back support for energy bills.

He said the 1p cut to income tax would be delayed “indefinitely” and the government’s energy price guarantee would only be universal until April – not for two years as originally planned.

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Income tax cut to be delayed ‘indefinitely’

Meanwhile, Labour secured an urgent question in the Commons about what had happened with the ousting of the former chancellor in the days before.

Rather than answering the question, the PM sent Penny Mordaunt to the despatch box, where she said Ms Truss wasn’t “hiding under a desk” but was busy with work.

Yet in the closing minutes of the event, the prime minister came into the chamber in preparation for Mr Hunt’s statement on the long list of reversals of policy.

While many MPs welcomed the new chancellor and the change of direction, other were furious, and the attempts to settle the mood of the party did not seem to be working. Without her policies, it was unclear what the PM had to offer.

Tuesday 18 October

Ms Truss’s premiership was hanging by a thread. Questions over what further decisions Mr Hunt would make to balance the books led to rumours of abandoning the pensions triple lock, cutting benefits, and even reducing the defence budget.

Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said he remained supportive of Ms Truss, unlike many of his colleagues, but there was no more room for error after the previous day of U-turns.

During a full cabinet meeting on Tuesday morning, the chancellor told ministers every department would need to find savings, a Treasury source said, with many cabinet ministers wondering how.

Ms Truss continued to hold meetings with MPs from various factions of the party, but there was a sense in the air that things were not going her way.

Wednesday 19 October

It was just Ms Truss’s third appearance at PMQs, but a lot of pressure was mounting on her to give the performance of her life.

She told the Commons she was a “fighter” not a “quitter”, and many in her party seemed calmed by her performance.

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PM: ‘I’m a fighter, not a quitter’

But within hours, her Home Secretary Suella Braverman announced her exit from cabinet – technically over breaking the ministerial code, but with a resignation letter slamming the performance of the government.

Things went from bad to worse later in the evening over a vote on fracking in the Commons that Tory MPs had been told was equivalent to a “confidence vote” in the PM.

Confusion reigned. Reports of bullying tactics and man-handling came from the voting lobbies, the chief whip resigned, then was back in post, it was unclear if the three-line whip was in place and the party was furious, with MPs starting to publicly call for Ms Truss to resign.

Thursday 20 October

After the chaos of the Commons the night before, the number of MPs calling for Ms Truss to go began to pick up momentum.

The chair of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, was seen going in the backdoor of Downing Street, and a Number 10 spokesman confirmed the pair were meeting at the PM’s request.

Deputy Prime Minister Therese Coffey was seen entering next, followed by Conservative Party Chairman Jake Berry.

Shortly after 1.30pm, after just 44 days in power, Ms Truss came out onto the street and announced she was resigning, with a new PM to be chosen within one week.

British Prime Minister Liz Truss announces her resignation, outside Number 10 Downing Street, London, Britain October 20, 2022. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls
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Liz Truss announces her resignation.

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Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah killed after Beirut airstrikes, Israeli army says

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Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah killed after Beirut airstrikes, Israeli army says

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has been killed after airstrikes in Beirut, the Israeli army has said.

Recent weeks have seen Israel unleash a barrage of strikes against Lebanon after it turned its attention to the conflict at its northern border.

On Friday, Israel targeted the capital Beirut with a series of attacks claiming to have struck the headquarters of Hezbollah.

Israel-Hezbollah latest

People stand near a picture of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah during the funeral of Hezbollah member Ali Mohamed Chalbi, after hand-held radios and pagers used by Hezbollah detonated across Lebanon, in Kfar Melki, Lebanon September 19, 2024. REUTERS/Aziz Taher
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People stand near a picture of Nasrallah during the funeral of a Hezbollah member. Pic: Reuters

People watch Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah delivering a televised address, as they sit at a cafe in Beirut, Lebanon September 19, 2024. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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People watch Hassan Nasrallah delivering a televised address in Beirut. Pic: Reuters

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said it carried out a “precise strike” on Hezbollah’s “central headquarters”, which it claimed was “embedded under residential buildings in the heart of the Dahieh in Beirut”.

The first wave of attacks shook windows across the city and sent thick clouds of smoke billowing into the air.

Smoke rises from Israeli airstrikes in Beirut's southern suburbs. Pic: AP
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Smoke rises from Israeli airstrikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Pic: AP

While Israel stressed it had been a “precise” strike, preliminary figures from Lebanon’s health ministry confirmed at least six other people were killed and 91 were wounded.

Israel said Nasrallah was the intended target and initially there were claims he had survived.

However, after several hours of confusion, his death was confirmed by Israel.

“Hassan Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorise the world,” the IDF said.

Hours later, a defiant Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah’s death but vowed their fight with Israel would continue after confirming they had fired upon sites in northern Israel.

“The leadership of Hezbollah pledges to the highest, holiest, and most precious martyr in our path full of sacrifices and martyrs to continue its jihad in confronting the enemy, supporting Gaza and Palestine, and defending Lebanon and its steadfast and honourable people,” they said.

Recent days have seen Israel launch strikes in Lebanon in Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and Bhamdoun
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Recent days have seen Israel launch strikes in Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and Bhamdoun

datawrapper map of Beirut showing the suburb of Dahieh
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The Israeli strike that allegedly took Nasrallah’s life was on residential buildings in Dahieh, Beirut

Alongside claiming to have killed Nasrallah, the IDF said it had killed a number of other commanders, including Ali Karaki, the commander of the southern front.

The country’s military said the strike was carried out while Hezbollah leadership met at their underground headquarters in Dahieh.

In the aftermath of the most recent attacks, an Israeli military spokesperson declined to comment on whether US-made Mark 84 heavy bombs were used in the strike against Nasrallah.

“The strike was conducted while Hezbollah’s senior chain of command were operating from the headquarters and advancing terrorist activities against the citizens of the State of Israel,” Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani said in a media briefing.

He continued: “We hope this will change Hezbollah’s actions.”

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Hezbollah leader killed says IDF

He added the number of civilian casualties was unclear but blamed Hezbollah for positioning itself in residential areas.

“We’ve seen Hezbollah carry out attacks against us for a year. It’s safe to assume that they are going to continue carrying out their attacks against us or try to,” he said.

Meanwhile, Iran said it was in constant contact with Hezbollah and other allies to determine its “next step”, but Reuters reported the country’s supreme leader was transferred to a secure location in light of the latest attack.

Speaking after the attack, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on Muslims “to stand by the people of Lebanon and the proud Hezbollah” and said: “The fate of this region will be determined by the forces of resistance, with Hezbollah at the forefront,” state media reported.

Nasrallah’s death will be a blow to Hezbollah as it continues to reel from a campaign of escalating Israeli attacks.

Flames rise after an Israeli airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut this morning. Pic: AP
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Flames rise after an Israeli airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Saturday. Pic: AP

Nasrallah is latest Hezbollah leader to fall

While Nasrallah’s death is certainly the most high-profile of recent attacks, it continues a trend of Israel targeting Hezbollah’s leadership structure.

Also on Saturday, in the early hours of the morning, the commander of the group’s missile unit and his deputy were killed in another Israeli attack in southern Lebanon.

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Then, in a separate strike overnight on Friday, the IDF said it killed the head of Hamas’s network in southern Syria.

This followed the deaths of other senior commanders, including Muhammad Qabisi, earlier in the month.

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Muriel Furrer: Swiss teenage cyclist dies after crash at world championships

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Muriel Furrer: Swiss teenage cyclist dies after crash at world championships

A Swiss teenage cyclist with “a bright future ahead of her” has died a day after suffering a serious head injury at the world championships.

Muriel Furrer crashed while competing on rain-slicked roads in the junior women’s road race in her home country.

The 18-year-old rider fell heavily on Thursday in a forest area south of the city of Zurich and was airlifted to hospital by helicopter, reportedly in a critical condition.

Race organisers announced on Friday she had died.

Zurich University Hospital. Pic: Reuters
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The cyclist died at Zurich University Hospital. Pic: Reuters

They said in a statement: “Muriel Furrer sadly passed away today at Zurich University Hospital.”

The UCI governing body for world cycling paid tribute to her in a statement on its website, entitled “The cycling world mourns the loss of Muriel Furrer”.

It read: “It is with great sadness that the Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI) and the Organising Committee of the 2024 UCI Road and Para-cycling Road World Championships today learned the tragic news of the death of young Swiss cyclist Muriel Furrer.

“With the passing of Muriel Furrer, the international cycling community loses a rider with a bright future ahead of her. We offer sincere condolences to Muriel Furrer’s family, friends and her Federation Swiss Cycling.”

Swiss Cycling said in a post on X: “Our hearts are broken, we have no words. It is with a heavy heart and infinite sadness that we have to say goodbye to Muriel Furrer today.

“We are losing a warm-hearted and wonderful young woman who always had a smile on her face. There is no understanding, only pain and sadness.”

At a news conference, a director of the Swiss organising committee Olivier Senn said he could not confirm exactly where the crash happened.

Police and the public prosecutor’s office were investigating the incident, Mr Senn said.

Furrer had finished in 44th position in the junior women’s time trial earlier in the week.

The rider’s family has asked for the championships – which last for nine days – to continue, said UCI sports director Peter van den Abeele.

The women’s and men’s elite races, scheduled for Saturday and Sunday respectively, will use the same stretch of road where the fatal crash happened.

A UCI gala event scheduled for Saturday evening has been cancelled, along with public events to mark races planned for Friday.

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Second Swiss cyclist death

Furrer is the second Swiss cyclist to die in just over a year after crashing on home roads.

At the Tour de Suisse in June 2023, Gino Mader went off the road and down a ravine during a descent. The 26-year-old died from his injuries the next day.

“Obviously it is another tragic death,” Mr Senn said. “There are a lot of similarities, similar feelings. Today is about Muriel.”

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Hassan Nasrallah killed: Decapitated and in disarray, Hezbollah and Iran must now decide to fight or backdown

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Hassan Nasrallah killed: Decapitated and in disarray, Hezbollah and Iran must now decide to fight or backdown

The leader of Hezbollah is dead.

This is a very big moment, not just in this conflict but for the future of the Middle East.

In 2006, the last Lebanon War, Israel tried and failed to kill him.

Last night, in a huge series of strikes on southern Beirut, they finally hit their target.

Read more: Who was Hassan Nasrallah?
Listen: What is Hezbollah and how powerful is it?

People watch the speech of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as they sit in a cafe in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
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People watch the speech of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah earlier this month. Pic: AP

A man checks a damaged building at the site of an Israeli airstrike in Choueifat, south east of Beirut on Saturday. Pic: AP
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A man checks a damaged building at the site of an Israeli airstrike in Choueifat, south east of Beirut on Saturday. Pic: AP

Over the past 18 years Nasrallah has grown Hezbollah in his image, expanding its forces, building its infrastructure and significantly expanding its arsenal.

He wasn’t just the leader of Hezbollah, he was a global figurehead of anti-Israel resistance.

More on Hezbollah

With Iran’s help, Hezbollah became one of the best armed non-state militaries in the world.

It is now decapitated and in disarray.

During the past decades Israel has also been at work, steadily gathering intelligence on Nasrallah and Hezbollah, building a vast database of information, an effort which arguably distracted them from better understanding the intentions of Hamas.

The intelligence successes of the past days have helped restore Israel’s reputation after the stunning failures on October 7.

Iran and Hezbollah must choose

This is a pivotal moment.

Iran and Hezbollah must now decide how to respond: fight, or backdown.

The strike also killed Ali Karaqi, commander of Hezbollah’s southern front and labelled as the second most wanted by the IDF.

It is still unclear who else died in the strike, but given the location and the presence of top officials, it seems likely that other senior figures would have been eliminated too.

Nasrallah will be replaced.

The assassination of enemy leaders can prove to be a short-term victory because they are often succeeded by someone more formidable than before, as witnessed by the killing of the former Hezbollah leader Abbas al Moussawi in 1992.

He was succeeded by Nasrallah.

The working assumption is that the group will respond with barrages of missiles into Israel, probably targeting Tel Aviv.

But Hezbollah’s command structure has been severely degraded by Israel.

Nasrallah had become isolated as the IDF had steadily killed commanders over a fortnight of scything airstrikes on their compounds in Beirut and elsewhere.

It will probably take time to co-ordinate a response and it will probably be done with Iranian guidance.

Nasrallah might be dead, but Hezbollah isn’t

Hezbollah is badly wounded, not just as a paramilitary force but in the eyes of the Lebanese people, many of whom are angry their country is now facing another period of devastating violence.

This might be a moment for more moderate voices within Lebanon, including the national armed forces, to step in.

As the war escalated over recent weeks, noticeable divisions emerged between Tehran and Nasrallah.

He remained an important ally, however, a trusted advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, and this will come as a personal blow to him.

Having resisted the opportunity to get involved so far, Iran might decide the time has come to take the gloves off and deploy what is left of the thousands of missiles they’ve provided Hezbollah with.

Alternatively, after such a difficult ten days, Tehran might conclude that this round of fighting needs to end and pull back with its main proxy still in some shape to rebuild and fight another day.

With such momentum behind Israel, Iran will also be concerned about its own fate and that of its smaller proxies in Iraq and Syria.

Ultimately, the reason for Hezbollah’s existence – to act as insurance against an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities – hasn’t changed, but if Tehran calculates its proxies can no longer act as that shield it might try to accelerate its nuclear programme.

Could a ground invasion follow?

The Israeli government has choices of its own: order a ground invasion of southern Lebanon or continue with an air campaign that has delivered such dramatic successes.

There will be strong and compelling voices in Netanyahu’s cabinet urging him to take advantage of the situation and send troops in, but Hezbollah is not defeated, thousands of its soldiers remain and they are likely hiding in the vast tunnel network under the hills across the border.

Even a limited ground invasion risks large loss of life, on both sides, and the potential Israel will be lured into something more prolonged than it intended.

Nasrallah’s death might change the dynamic in Gaza too.

Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, has clung on and rejected ceasefire attempts in the hope that Hezbollah and Iran would go to war with Israel, dragging its enemy into a multi-front and unwinnable conflict.

That might still happen, but just as Nasrallah became isolated, so too is Sinwar.

The much trumpeted “unity of arenas” has failed to join up.

The Middle East might often look chaotic to outsiders, but there are unspoken rules generally acknowledged and followed by belligerents.

For years Hezbollah and Israel acted within the unwritten but understood parameters of a shadow war.

Then, eleven months ago on 8 October, Hezbollah attacked Israel out of solidarity with Hamas.

Nasrallah tied Lebanon’s fate to Hamas, insisting that Hezbollah would only stop when the fighting ended in Gaza.

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That ceasefire never came.

The rules shifted as the crossfire escalated, but it remained broadly contained within boundaries understood by both sides.

Until two weeks ago, 17 September, when thousands of pagers started exploding across Beirut and Lebanon.

It is possible Nasrallah had concluded that Israel was war-weary, and he overestimated the domestic and international pressure Netanyahu was under to end the fighting.

He might have believed that Netanyahu had neither the will nor the support to open up another front.

He, like so many of us, maybe assumed US influence on Israel would prevail.

Those miscalculations cost him his life.

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