Bank of England official hints interest rates may not rise as much as market expects
Might interest rates not peak as high as the market is expecting?
That is certainly the conclusion that has been drawn today following a speech by Ben Broadbent, deputy governor for monetary policy of the Bank of England, in which he discussed the impact of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Speaking at Imperial College London, Mr Broadbent – in language rarely used by a member of the Bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) – more or less told financial market participants that they were pricing in too many future increases in Bank rate.
In his speech, Mr Broadbent discussed recent movements in the market’s expectations for how high Bank rate might go, pointing out that, as recently as the Monetary Policy Report in August, prices in financial markets were consistent with Bank Rate rising to a peak of 3% next spring and then falling back a little over the following year.
But he pointed out that, despite a decline in recent days, that expected peak was now around 5.25%. He said that this was “by some distance” the largest rise in market interest rates between MPC forecasts since the committee was founded in 1997.
Mr Broadbent said that, were that to come to pass, the cumulative impact of interest rate rises over the “entire hiking cycle” would be sufficient to reduce the UK’s GDP by just under 5%.
He added: “It would imply a pretty material hit to demand over the next couple of years.”
In his crucial concluding remarks, Mr Broadbent said: “Whether official interest rates have to rise by quite as much as currently priced in financial markets remains to be seen.”
His comments immediately had an interest on market expectations. Last night, the market was pricing in a peak for Bank Rate of 4.785% but that has slipped today to 4.68%. A week ago, prior to the new chancellor Jeremy Hunt tearing up most of his predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget, market expectations for peak Bank rate were at 5.099%.
Ben Broadbent, deputy governor for monetary policy of the Bank of England
Impact of the energy price guarantee
Central to the MPC’s deliberations, Mr Broadbent made clear, would be the government’s energy price guarantee aimed at protecting households and businesses from soaring energy bills this winter.
He noted that, for as long as it was in place, the guarantee would have the effect of limiting headline inflation and, with it, any related so-called ‘second-round’ effects – the term used to describe how a high level of inflation can feed into further inflation by, for example, prompting workers to demand inflation-busting pay increases.
But he pointed out that the guarantee would also reduce “the severity of the hit to household incomes” by soaring energy prices and, as a result, would support demand – something that would, in normal circumstances, add to inflation. He reminded his audience that the MPC had already judged that the second effect was likely to outweigh the first.
Mr Broadbent pointed out that on Monday, Mr Hunt had said the energy price guarantee would be maintained only for six months, rather than the two-year period originally planned.
He added: “He suggested support was likely to continue, beyond six months, albeit in a more targeted fashion. But we are unlikely to know for a while precisely the form that will take.”
Mr Broadbent said that, if government support for households and businesses on energy prices were to mitigate the impact of higher inflation, there would be “more at the margin for monetary policy to do”.
And he went on: “The MPC is likely to respond relatively promptly to news about fiscal policy.”
That was a clear hint that were Mr Hunt to continue with the energy price guarantee beyond March next year, having said on Monday this week that it would come to an end then, the MPC might have to respond by setting a higher level of Bank rate than might otherwise be the case.
Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey
A change in policy outlook
Mr Broadbent’s remarks today are all the more significant because they underline just how much the policy outlook for the UK has changed during the last week.
It was only as recently as last Saturday that Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s governor, delivered a speech at the International Banking Seminar in Washington in which he said: “We will not hesitate to raise interest rates to meet the inflation target. And, as things stand today, my best guess is that inflationary pressures will require a stronger response than we perhaps thought in August.”
Since then, in a bid to pacify the bond market, Jeremy Hunt has unwound most of Mr Kwarteng’s unfunded giveaways and set a date, 31 October, on which he is expected to come up with further tax increases and public spending cuts to plug the government’s fiscal hole.
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Gilt yields – implied government borrowing costs – have fallen sharply from where they were immediately after the mini-budget.
Mr Broadbent’s comments today suggest that, so too, should market expectations of where Bank rate will peak.
Sir Keir Starmer has said his government stands ready to use industrial policy to “shelter British business from the storm” after Donald Trump’s new 10% tariff kicked in.
The UK was among a number of countries hit with the lowest import duty rate following the president’s announcement on 2 April – which he called ‘Liberation Day’, while other nations, such as Vietnam, Cambodia and China face much higher US levies.
But a global trade war will hurt the UK’s open economy.
The prime minister said “these new times demand a new mentality”, after the 10% tax on British imports into America came into force on Saturday. A 25% US levy on all foreign car imports was introduced on Thursday.
It comes as Jaguar Land Rover announced it would “pause” shipments to the US for a month, as firms grapple with the new taxes.
On Saturday, the car manufacturer said it was working to “address the new trading terms” and was looking to “develop our mid to longer-term plans”.
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Jobs fears as Jaguar halts shipments
Referring to the tariffs, Sir Keir said “the immediate priority is to keep calm and fight for the best deal”.
Writing in The Sunday Telegraph, he said that in the coming days “we will turbocharge plans that will improve our domestic competitiveness”, adding: “We stand ready to use industrial policy to help shelter British business from the storm.”
It is believed a number of announcements could be made soon as ministers look to encourage growth.
NI contribution rate for employers goes up
From Sunday, the rate of employer NICs (national insurance contributions) increased from 13.8% to 15%.
At the same time, firms will also pay more because the government lowered the salary threshold at which companies start paying NICs from £9,100 to £5,000.
Also, the FTSE 100 of leading UK companies had its worst day of trading since the start of the pandemic on Friday, with banks among some of the firms to suffer the sharpest losses.
Sir Keir said: “This week, the government will do everything necessary to protect Britain’s national interest. Because when global economic sands are shifting, our laser focus on delivering for Britain will not. And these new times demand a new mentality.”
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Trump defiant despite markets
UK spared highest tariff rates
Some of the highest rates have been applied to “worst offender” countries including some in Southeast Asia. Imports from Cambodia will be subject to a 49% tariff, while those from Vietnam will face a 46% rate. Chinese goods will be hit with a 34% tariff.
Imports from France will have a 20% tariff, the rate which has been set for European Union nations. These will come into effect on 9 April.
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Red wall on Wall Street – but Trump undeterred
How will UK respond to Trump’s tariffs?
Sir Keir has been speaking to foreign leaders on the phone over the weekend, including French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, to discuss the tariff changes.
A Downing Street spokesperson said of the conversation between Sir Keir and Mr Macron: “They agreed that a trade war was in nobody’s interests but nothing should be off the table and that it was important to keep business updated on developments.
“The prime minister and president also shared their concerns about the global economic and security impact, particularly in Southeast Asia.”
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Trump’s warning
Mr Trump has warned Americans the tariffs “won’t be easy”, but urged them to “hang tough”.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said: “We are bringing back jobs and businesses like never before.
“Already, more than FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS OF INVESTMENT, and rising fast!
“THIS IS AN ECONOMIC REVOLUTION, AND WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH, it won’t be easy, but the end result will be historic.”
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