It could be all over on Monday or the Conservatives may be about to mesmerise the nation with another round of vicious infighting.
The Conservative Party rules can’t be changed. They are that Conservative MPs draw up a shortlist of two candidates from their number.
The 180,000 paid-up and unelected party members then choose between them. Less than half of those eligible to vote actually voted for Liz Truss last time but they still overruled the MPs’ preference and saddled the nation with a prime minister who lasted less than 50 days.
Sir Graham Brady and the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers have done what they can to try to stop it happening again by changing the way MPs draw up the shortlist. It is possible that the MPs will present the membership with a fait accompli early next week.
After the bumpy ride for the country and their party under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, senior Tory backbenchers have done what they can to ensure an orderly transition to an orthodox candidate: most likely Rishi Sunak or Penny Mordaunt, who were the runners-up in the last contest which, amazingly, elected Ms Truss less than two months ago.
As things stand, however, there is a chance that these best laid plans could go awry, resulting in Britain ending up with another “disrupter” prime minister drawn from an unrepresentative band of populist libertarians.
How will Tories pick the new PM?
Image: Rishi Sunak lost to Liz Truss in the last Tory leadership contest
The ’22 have set the threshold for nominations high. To enter the contest, a candidate will need to gather written backing from 100 fellow Tory MPs over this weekend. That is five times higher than the 20 required last time and has the desired effect of limiting the field to a maximum of three candidates since there are only 357 Conservatives in the Commons.
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Nominations will close at 2pm on Monday. MPs will then vote, with the results declared at 6pm. Theoretically, that may not be necessary. It is possible that only one candidate – Rishi Sunak, the runaway favourite – will get enough nominations. He would then win by a walkover, similiar to the way Gordon Brown took over the premiership from Tony Blair.
Nominating someone is more potent than just voting for them. Remember the charity nominations Margaret Beckett and other “morons”, her words not mine, gave Jeremy Corbyn so he could run. This time MPs might decide that Mr Sunak is going to win anyway, so for a quiet life and possibly currying favour with the new boss they could give him a key to No 10.
But in the final round this summer, Mr Sunak led with 137 votes, to 113 for Ms Truss and 105 for Penny Mordaunt. Ms Mordaunt wants to run again and is scrabbling for her base to nominate her. In polls this summer she was more popular with Tory voters than Mr Sunak. She would prefer a straight fight with Mr Sunak, whether that comes about because only she and he are nominated or because they beat a possible third candidate in an initial vote.
If there are two candidates left for the membership to choose from, there will be an online ballot of the membership next week, with the result declared on Friday. Before that, the ’22 have already said that there will be “an indicative vote” between them first by MPs. The purpose of this is to send a powerful and unambiguous message to the membership about whom MPs want as leader. In choosing Ms Truss last time they went against the MPs’ first preference of Sunak.
If Mr Sunak and Ms Mordaunt are the final two, they could still take the decision out of the membership’s hands by agreeing that one who has least backing from MPs withdraw in favour of the one with most, allowing him or her to become prime minister. They would also both commit in advance to serve in the same cabinet and to keep Jeremy Hunt as chancellor .
Such a smooth transition would be derailed if there is a third candidate with 100 nominations.
All eyes are on Boris Johnson, who is said, like Donald Trump, to want a comeback. If, and it is a big if, he gets on to the starting grid, there could be a stampede of MPs who might decide he looks like a vote winner and put him into the second round against either Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak.
His chances of victory and re-election by the membership would be very high. He is popular and he is the only candidate who can claim a personal mandate, having led the party to victory in the 2019 general election.
But, but, but.
Tory MPs and cabinet ministers turfed out Mr Johnson this summer for serial dishonesty and sending others out to lie on his behalf. Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries and a few diehards may be calling on him to return but he has never been loved by the rank and file of the parliamentary party, who control the nominations. Nor does he fit snuggly with the libertarian, UKIP-style entryists of the European Research Group, who are now fighting a rear-guard action to preserve their influence in the party.
There are obvious efforts by Johnson supporters in parliament and the media to talk him up this weekend. But his shooting star support from some MPs could easily plateau short of 100 nominations. If so, having drawn attention to himself yet again, Mr Johnson would most likely return to his less demanding, more lucrative exertions on the US lecture circuit.
Could an unlikely outsider emerge?
If it is not Mr Johnson, someone else could emerge as the third challenger.
Suella Braverman fancies her chances and her sacking as Ms Truss’s home secretary positions her to rally the right. Kemi Badenoch also has high ambitions.
Fortunately for Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak, Jeremy Hunt and Ben Wallace have both ruled themselves out of the race. It is unlikely anyone else would be able to muster 100 nominating signatures.
Shell-shocked Tory MPs do not want to take the risk of taking a punt on another incoherent or incompetent leader. They want a well-known figure with a proven track record to steady the ship.
In the ultimate reckoning, this is likely to count against Ms Mordaunt. At 49, she is older than Mr Sunak, 42, and has been in parliament five years longer, since 2010. But she has served barely two years as a cabinet minister.
Mr Sunak by contrast has three years in cabinet under his belt, two of them as the chancellor who piloted the economy through COVID.
MPs have the future of the nation in their hands. One option would be to open the door to the return of the discredited individual they kicked out a few months ago. Or they could shut him out for good and opt for a technocrat.
The death toll from a fire that tore through a Hong Kong apartment complex has risen.
Investigators are searching for bodies in the residential towers of Wang Fuk Court, where the blaze erupted on Wednesday.
Authorities say 146 bodies have now been found, rising from a previous reported total of 128.
Image: A girl places flowers in front of the fire-damaged residential blocks at Wang Fuk Court. Pic: Reuters
Shuk-yin Tsang, the head of the Hong Kong police casualty unit, said another 100 people remained unaccounted for, and 79 people were injured.
Flames spread through seven of the eight towers of the complex, and the fire was not fully extinguished until Friday.
Police said they had completed searches through four of the affected buildings.
But a city official said they expected the search process to take three to four weeks.
Image: People line up to offer flowers and prayers for the victims of the fire at Wang Fuk Court. Pic: AP
The burnt towers
Cheng Ka-chun, the police officer leading the search, said bodies had been found both in apartments and on the roofs.
He said: “It is so dark inside, and because of the low light, it is very difficult to do the work, especially in places away from the windows.”
Before the fire broke out, the towers had been undergoing renovations and were clad in bamboo scaffolding, draped with nylon netting, with windows covered by polystyrene panels.
Residents say they repeatedly warned about the potential flammability of the materials, but were told by the authorities that they faced “relatively low fire risks”.
Image: Smoke rises after a fire broke out at Wang Fuk Court. Pic: AP
Image: Firefighters work to extinguish the fire. Pic: AP
Now the authorities are investigating whether fire codes were violated amid growing public anger over the blaze.
Beijing has warned it will use a national security law to crack down on any “anti-China” protests that result.
Eyewitness: Hong Kong mourns those lost to fire
Grief was not lonely today in Hong Kong. Three days after the worst fire in the history of modern Hong Kong, it feels as though it has barely sunk in.
The weekend at least lent them time to pay tribute, and gave them some space to reflect.
People came in droves to lay flowers, so many a queuing system was needed.
Official books of condolences were also set up in multiple parts of the city.
Over 1,000 people turned out on Sunday to pay tribute to the victims of the fire, which was Hong Kong’s deadliest in more than 75 years.
Mourners queued for more than a kilometre to lay flowers, some with sticky notes attached addressed to the victims.
Image: People leave notes with well-wishes after the deadly fire. Pic: Reuters
Joey Yeung, whose grandmother’s apartment burned in the fire, asked for justice.
The 28-year-old said: “I can’t accept it. So today I came with my father and my family to lay flowers.
“I’m not asking to get anything back but at least give some justice to the families of the deceased – to those who are still alive.”
Another mourner, Lian Shuzheng, said: “This really serves as a wake-up call for everyone, especially with these super high-rise buildings.”
Image: People offer flowers for the victims. Pic: AP
Image: People offer flowers and pray for the victims. Pic: AP
‘Serious deficiencies’ in safety
An online petition demanding an independent probe into possible corruption and a review of construction oversight drew over 10,000 signatures before it was closed.
Another petition with similar demands attracted more than 2,700 signatures with its plea for “explicit accountability” from the government.
City officials have announced they were suspending 28 building projects undertaken by the contractor that was renovating Wang Fuk Court, the Prestige Construction & Engineering Company.
They said the fire had “exposed serious deficiencies” in the safety of the company’s sites, “including the extensive use of foam boards to block up windows during building repairs”.
Image: The burned towers and makeshift flower memorial. Pic: Reuters
The day after the fire broke out, two directors and an engineering consultant from a construction firm were arrested on suspicion of manslaughter.
Police said they also suspected the company’s leaders of gross negligence, without identifying the firm by name.
The three men were released on bail, but then rearrested by Hong Kong’s anti-corruption authorities, who made a further eight arrests.
Venezuela has accused Donald Trump of a “colonial threat” after he said the airspace “above and surrounding” the country should be considered closed “in its entirety”.
Mr Trumpmade the declaration amid growing tensions with President Maduro – and as the US continues attacking boats it claims are carrying drugs from Venezuela.
He wrote on Truth Social: “To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY.”
Image: Air traffic above Venezuela on Saturday afternoon. Pic: FlightRadar24
Venezuela’s foreign affairs office called it a “colonial threat” and “illegal, and unjustified aggression”.
It accused the president of threatening “the sovereignty of the national airspace… and the full sovereignty of the Venezuelan state”.
President Trump’s words were part of a “permanent policy of aggression against our country” that breached international law and the UN Charter, it added.
The Pentagon and the White House have so far not given any additional detail on the president’s statement.
Mr Trump’s post comes after the American aviation regulator last week warned of a “potentially hazardous situation” over Venezuela due to a “worsening security situation”.
Image: Nicolas Maduro is widely considered a dictator by the West. Pic: Reuters
The South American nation revoked operating rights for six major airlines that went on to suspend flights to the country.
Mr Trump warned a few days ago that land operations against suspected Venezuelan drug traffickers would begin “very soon”.
Such a move would be a major escalation in Operation Southern Spear – the US naval deployment in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific that’s so far attacked at least 21 vessels.
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0:59
Three killed as US strikes another alleged drug boat
Venezuela has said the attacks, which have killed more than 80 people, amount to murder.
The US has released videos of boats being targeted, but hasn’t provided evidence – such as photos of their cargo – to support the smuggling claims.
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1:41
Venezuela claims Trump creating ‘fables’ to justify ‘war’
The Pentagon has sought to justify the strikes by labelling the drug gangs as “foreign terrorist organisations” – putting them on par with the likes of al Qaeda.
It claims the boats targeted are carrying drugs bound for the US, although Sky’s chief correspondent says the final destination is likely to be Europe and West Africa.
President Maduro has denied Mr Trump’s claims he is involved in the drugs trade himself and said his counterpart wants to oust him so he can install a more sympathetic government.
Venezuelan officials have also claimed Mr Trump’s true motivation is access to the country’s plentiful oil reserves.
Mr Maduro is widely considered a dictator who’s cheated elections and has been president since 2013.
Ukraine’s representatives are preparing for renewed peace talks in the US, while dramatic footage has shown Russian tankers being hit by naval drones.
President Zelenskyy said a delegation headed by national security chief Rustem Umerov was on its way to “swiftly and substantively work out the steps needed to end the war”.
They are due to be greeted by US secretary of state Marco Rubio, Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, and the US president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, a senior US official told Reuters news agency.
Image: National security chief Rustem Umerov is leading the delegation. Pic: Reuters
After the US-Ukraine talks, an American delegation is expected to travel to Moscow to meet President Putin.
It comes after Mr Trump released a 28-point proposal last week that would hand swathes of land to Russia and limit the size of Kyiv’s military.
It was widely seen as heavily favouring Russia and led Mr Zelenskyy to swiftly engage with American negotiators.
President Trump said on Tuesday his plan had been “fine-tuned”.
More on Ukraine
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1:05
Ukraine peace plan in 60 seconds
In his evening address on Saturday, the Ukrainian leader said: “The American side is demonstrating a constructive approach, and in the coming days it is feasible to flesh out the steps to determine how to bring the war to a dignified end.”
Mr Zelenskyy’s team in the US is without his former chief of staff and lead negotiator, Andrii Yermak, as he quit on Friday after officials raided his home amid a corruption scandal.
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2:59
What do we know about Ukraine’s corruption scandal?
Tankers hit by ‘Sea Baby’ drones
Ukrainian drones were shown hitting two of Russia‘s so-called “shadow fleet” oil tankers in the Black Sea in footage released on Saturday.
Friday’s attack was carried out by the country’s security service and its navy, an official told Reuters. They said both ships “sustained critical damage” that took them out of service.
A security source told Associated Press that domestically-made “Sea Baby” drones were used.
The tankers were under sanctions and heading to a Russian port to load up with oil destined for foreign markets, the official said.
They have been identified as the Kairos and Virat.
Image: The blasts hit tankers off Turkey’s Black Sea coast. Pic: Turkish Directorate General for Maritime Affairs/Reuters
The 274m-long Kairos suffered an explosion and caught fire en route from Egypt to Russia on Friday, Turkey’s transport ministry said. The crew was evacuated.
The Virat was reportedly struck about 35 nautical miles offshore.
It was attacked by unmanned vessels and sustained minor damage to its starboard side, the Turkish ministry said.
Russia deploys a fleet of often ageing, uninsured and unmarked tankers to circumvent sanctions on its oil exports, which continue to help pay for the Ukraine war.
Another Ukrainian attack halted operations at an oil terminal near the Russian port of Novorossiysk on Saturday.
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1:30
Russian drone and missile attack hits Kyiv
Andriy Kovalenko, from Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, said special forces were responsible.
“Naval drones managed to destroy one of the three oil tanker berths of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in the Novorossiysk area,” he wrote on Telegram.
Six killed in aerial attacks on Ukraine
Russia carried out another onslaught on the Ukrainian capital overnight into Saturday, firing 36 cruise and ballistic missiles and launching around 600 drones.
Officials said three people were killed in and around Kyiv, two in the Dnipropetrovsk region and one in a midday attack in Kherson region in the south.
Mayor Vitali Klitschko said 29 others were injured in Kyiv, largely due to falling debris from intercepted drones hitting buildings.
The attacks also hit Ukrainian energy facilities and left hundreds of thousands without power in the capital. Supplies have since been restored.
Targeting such infrastructure has become a familiar tactic from Russia over the winter, in what Ukraine officials say is the “weaponising” of the cold.