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It could be all over on Monday or the Conservatives may be about to mesmerise the nation with another round of vicious infighting.

The Conservative Party rules can’t be changed. They are that Conservative MPs draw up a shortlist of two candidates from their number.

The 180,000 paid-up and unelected party members then choose between them. Less than half of those eligible to vote actually voted for Liz Truss last time but they still overruled the MPs’ preference and saddled the nation with a prime minister who lasted less than 50 days.

Three names emerge in Tory leadership contest – politics latest

Sir Graham Brady and the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers have done what they can to try to stop it happening again by changing the way MPs draw up the shortlist. It is possible that the MPs will present the membership with a fait accompli early next week.

After the bumpy ride for the country and their party under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, senior Tory backbenchers have done what they can to ensure an orderly transition to an orthodox candidate: most likely Rishi Sunak or Penny Mordaunt, who were the runners-up in the last contest which, amazingly, elected Ms Truss less than two months ago.

As things stand, however, there is a chance that these best laid plans could go awry, resulting in Britain ending up with another “disrupter” prime minister drawn from an unrepresentative band of populist libertarians.

How will Tories pick the new PM?

Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak
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Rishi Sunak lost to Liz Truss in the last Tory leadership contest

The ’22 have set the threshold for nominations high. To enter the contest, a candidate will need to gather written backing from 100 fellow Tory MPs over this weekend. That is five times higher than the 20 required last time and has the desired effect of limiting the field to a maximum of three candidates since there are only 357 Conservatives in the Commons.

Nominations will close at 2pm on Monday. MPs will then vote, with the results declared at 6pm. Theoretically, that may not be necessary. It is possible that only one candidate – Rishi Sunak, the runaway favourite – will get enough nominations. He would then win by a walkover, similiar to the way Gordon Brown took over the premiership from Tony Blair.

How the Tory Party changes its leader

Nominating someone is more potent than just voting for them. Remember the charity nominations Margaret Beckett and other “morons”, her words not mine, gave Jeremy Corbyn so he could run. This time MPs might decide that Mr Sunak is going to win anyway, so for a quiet life and possibly currying favour with the new boss they could give him a key to No 10.

But in the final round this summer, Mr Sunak led with 137 votes, to 113 for Ms Truss and 105 for Penny Mordaunt. Ms Mordaunt wants to run again and is scrabbling for her base to nominate her. In polls this summer she was more popular with Tory voters than Mr Sunak. She would prefer a straight fight with Mr Sunak, whether that comes about because only she and he are nominated or because they beat a possible third candidate in an initial vote.

The expected timeline of events in electing a new PM

If there are two candidates left for the membership to choose from, there will be an online ballot of the membership next week, with the result declared on Friday. Before that, the ’22 have already said that there will be “an indicative vote” between them first by MPs. The purpose of this is to send a powerful and unambiguous message to the membership about whom MPs want as leader. In choosing Ms Truss last time they went against the MPs’ first preference of Sunak.

If Mr Sunak and Ms Mordaunt are the final two, they could still take the decision out of the membership’s hands by agreeing that one who has least backing from MPs withdraw in favour of the one with most, allowing him or her to become prime minister. They would also both commit in advance to serve in the same cabinet and to keep Jeremy Hunt as chancellor .

Read more:
Resignations, reversals and rebellion – the 44 days of Liz Truss’s premiership
It’s hard to see how new PM will stop the rot – Beth Rigby analysis

Will Johnson derail the smooth transition?

Boris Johnson outside Number 10 on 6 September, the day he handed over power to Liz Truss Pic: AP

Such a smooth transition would be derailed if there is a third candidate with 100 nominations.

All eyes are on Boris Johnson, who is said, like Donald Trump, to want a comeback. If, and it is a big if, he gets on to the starting grid, there could be a stampede of MPs who might decide he looks like a vote winner and put him into the second round against either Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak.

His chances of victory and re-election by the membership would be very high. He is popular and he is the only candidate who can claim a personal mandate, having led the party to victory in the 2019 general election.

But, but, but.

Tory MPs and cabinet ministers turfed out Mr Johnson this summer for serial dishonesty and sending others out to lie on his behalf. Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries and a few diehards may be calling on him to return but he has never been loved by the rank and file of the parliamentary party, who control the nominations. Nor does he fit snuggly with the libertarian, UKIP-style entryists of the European Research Group, who are now fighting a rear-guard action to preserve their influence in the party.

There are obvious efforts by Johnson supporters in parliament and the media to talk him up this weekend. But his shooting star support from some MPs could easily plateau short of 100 nominations. If so, having drawn attention to himself yet again, Mr Johnson would most likely return to his less demanding, more lucrative exertions on the US lecture circuit.

Could an unlikely outsider emerge?

Attorney General Suella Braverman during a regional cabinet meeting at Middleport Pottery in Stoke on Trent. Picture date: Thursday May 12, 2022.

If it is not Mr Johnson, someone else could emerge as the third challenger.

Suella Braverman fancies her chances and her sacking as Ms Truss’s home secretary positions her to rally the right. Kemi Badenoch also has high ambitions.

Fortunately for Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak, Jeremy Hunt and Ben Wallace have both ruled themselves out of the race. It is unlikely anyone else would be able to muster 100 nominating signatures.

Shell-shocked Tory MPs do not want to take the risk of taking a punt on another incoherent or incompetent leader. They want a well-known figure with a proven track record to steady the ship.

In the ultimate reckoning, this is likely to count against Ms Mordaunt. At 49, she is older than Mr Sunak, 42, and has been in parliament five years longer, since 2010. But she has served barely two years as a cabinet minister.

Mr Sunak by contrast has three years in cabinet under his belt, two of them as the chancellor who piloted the economy through COVID.

MPs have the future of the nation in their hands. One option would be to open the door to the return of the discredited individual they kicked out a few months ago. Or they could shut him out for good and opt for a technocrat.

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President Duda says Trump best chance for Ukraine peace – and urges allies to stay calm over tariffs ‘shock therapy’

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President Duda says Trump best chance for Ukraine peace - and urges allies to stay calm over tariffs 'shock therapy'

Poland’s outgoing President Andrzej Duda has kept few revelations for the final weeks of his presidency.

Ten years in office – a tenure spanning Donald Trump’s first and current term – his admiration for the incumbent leader of the free world remains undimmed. As is his conviction that Ukraine’s only chance of peace lies with the US leader.

In an interview with Sky News in the presidential palace in Warsaw, President Duda described Mr Trump‘s tariff policy as “shock therapy”, a negotiating tactic from a man “of huge business and commercial success” that he now brings to the arena of politics.

That may not be what European politicians are used to, Mr Duda says, but Donald Trump is answerable to the US taxpayer and not to his European counterparts, and allies must “stay calm” in the face of this new transatlantic modus operandi.

As for negotiations with Vladimir Putin, President Duda is sure that Donald Trump has the measure of the Russian leader, while refusing to be drawn on the competencies of his chief negotiator Steve Witkoff who landed on Friday in Moscow for further talks with Vladimir Putin – a man Mr Witkoff has described as “trustworthy” and “not a bad guy”.

Putting the kybosh on Nord Stream 2 in his first term and thwarting President Putin’s energy ambitions via his state-owned energy giant Gazprom are evidence enough that Mr Trump knows where to hit so it hurts, Mr Duda says.

Given the failures of Europe’s leaders to negotiate peace through the Minsk accords, he believes the onus now falls on Donald Trump.

More on Poland

“If anyone is able to force the end of Russia’s war, it is most likely only the President of the United States,” he says.

“The question is whether he will be determined enough to do that in a way – because it is also very important here in Europe being a neighbour of Russian aggression against Ukraine – that the peace is fair and lasting.”

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The Polish NATO base on the frontline with Russia

President Duda has just weeks left in office before the country votes for a new president in May.

Originally from Poland’s conservative Law and Justice party, one of the few points of alignment with the liberal and euro-centric prime minister Donald Tusk is the emphasis both place on security.

Hopes for ‘Fort Trump’ base

So did the announcement this week that the US would be withdrawing from the Jasionka air base near Rzeszow, which is the key logistics hub for allied support into Ukraine, come as a shock to the president, as it did to many Poles?

Not at all, Mr Duda says.

“We were warned that the change was planned. I have not received any information from [the US] about decreasing the number of American soldiers. Quite the opposite.”

US defence secretary Pete Hegseth and President Duda met in Warsaw in February. Pic: Reuters
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US defence secretary Hegseth and President Duda met in February. Pic: Reuters

He referred back to talks with US defence secretary Pete Hegseth in February, saying: “We discussed strengthening the American presence in Poland, and I mentioned the idea of creating a huge base of US troops. Then, we called it Fort Trump. I do still hope that this idea will be implemented.”

Read more:
Eyewitness: Inside Polish NATO base on frontline with Russia

Andrzej Duda has staked his legacy on close ties with Donald Trump at a time when many NATO allies are considering a form of de-Americanisation, as they consider new trading realities and build up their own defence capabilities.

Poland has proven itself a model in terms of defence spending, investing more than any other NATO member – a massive 4.7% of GDP for 2025. But as the case of Canada shows, even the best of friendships can turn sour.

The Canadian conservative party, once dubbed a maple MAGA, was flying high in the polls before Donald Trump decided to savage links with his closest trading partner.

Now in the space of just a few months they are floundering behind the ruling liberal party. Is this a cautionary tale for Poland’s conservative Law and Justice party?

“For Canadian conservatives it is a kind of side effect of President Trump’s very tough economic policy,” Mr Duda says.

“In Poland, this does not have such an impact. The security issues are the most important. That’s the most important issue in Poland.”

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Athens: Bomb explodes outside Hellenic Train’s offices amid anger over Greece’s worst train disaster

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Athens: Bomb explodes outside Hellenic Train's offices amid anger over Greece's worst train disaster

Police in Greece are investigating after a bomb exploded outside the offices of the country’s main railway company.

There were no reports of injuries after the blast next to Hellenic Train’s offices in central Athens on Friday evening.

An anonymous phone warning was reportedly made to a newspaper and a news website, saying a bomb had been left outside the railway company offices and would go off within about 40 minutes.

Police forensics experts wearing white coveralls were pictured collecting evidence at the scene following the blast on Syngrou Avenue, a major road in the Greek capital.

A police officer investigates the area of a bomb blast outside the Hellenic Train offices, in Athens, Greece, April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Stelios Misinas
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A police officer at the scene. Pic: Reuters

The logo of Hellenic Train, Greece's main railway company, is seen outside company's headquarters, following a bomb explosion Friday night causing causing limited damage but no injuries, in Athens, Greece, on Saturday, April 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Yorgos Karahalis)
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The bomb caused limited damage but no injuries to Hellenic Trains’ offices. Pic: AP

The male caller gave a timeframe of 35 to 40 minutes and insisted it was not a joke, local media outlet efsyn said.

Police cordoned off the site, keeping people away from the building in an area with several bars and restaurants.

A bag, described in local media as a rucksack, containing an explosive device had been placed near the Hellenic Train building.

More on Greece

The explosion comes amid widespread public anger over the Tempe railway disaster in which 57 people, mostly university students, were killed in northern Greece.

The government has been widely criticised for its handling of the aftermath of the country’s deadliest rail disaster when a freight train and a passenger train heading in opposite directions were accidentally put on the same track on 28 February 2023.

Unhappiness has grown over the last few weeks in the wake of the second anniversary of the tragedy.

Forensics officers investigate the area of a bomb blast outside the Hellenic Train offices, in Athens, Greece, April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Stelios Misinas
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Pic: Reuters

A municipal worker cleans the area outside Hellenic Train headquarters, Greece's main railway company, following a bomb explosion Friday night causing causing limited damage but no injuries, in Athens, Greece, on Saturday, April 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Yorgos Karahalis)
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A worker cleans the area after the bomb. Pic: AP

Safety deficiencies exposed

The crash, which exposed severe deficiencies in Greece’s railway system, including in safety systems, has triggered mass protests, led by the relatives of those killed, which have targeted the country’s conservative government.

Critics accuse authorities of failing to take political responsibility for the disaster or hold senior officials accountable.

So far, only rail officials have been charged with any crimes. Several protests in recent weeks have turned violent, with demonstrators clashing with police.

Heated debate in parliament

Earlier on Friday, a heated debate on the accident in the Greek parliament saw a former cabinet minister referred to investigators for alleged failures in his handling of the immediate aftermath of the crash.

Hellenic Train said it “unreservedly condemns every form of violence and tension which are triggering a climate of toxicity that is undermining all progress”.

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Greece has a long history of politically motivated violence, with domestic extremist groups carrying out small-scale bombings which usually cause damage but rarely lead to injuries.

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US envoy meets Putin for talks – as Trump urges Russia to ‘get moving’ on Ukraine

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US envoy meets Putin for talks - as Trump urges Russia to 'get moving' on Ukraine

Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff has met Vladimir Putin for talks in Russia – as the US president called on Moscow to “get moving” with ending the war in Ukraine.

Mr Witkoff, who has been pressing the Kremlin to accept a truce, visited Mr Putin in St Petersburg after earlier meeting the Russian leader’s international co-operation envoy Kirill Dmitriev.

Mr Putin was shown on state TV greeting Mr Witkoff at the city’s presidential library at the start of the latest discussions about the search for a peace deal on Ukraine.

Before Friday’s meeting, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov played down expectations of a breakthrough and told state media the visit would not be “momentous”.

Follow the latest updates on the war in Ukraine

However, Sky News Moscow correspondent Ivor Bennett said he believes the meeting – Mr Witkoff’s third with Mr Putin this year – is significant as a sign of the Trump administration’s “increasing frustration at the lack of progress on peace talks”.

Earlier on Friday, Mr Trump issued his latest social media statement on trying to end the war, writing on Truth Social: “Russia has to get moving. Too many people ere [sic] DYING, thousands a week, in a terrible and senseless war – A war that should have never happened, and wouldn’t have happened, if I were President!!!”

Dialogue between the US and Russia, aimed at agreeing a ceasefire ahead of a possible peace deal to end the war, has recently appeared to have stalled over disagreements around conditions for a full pause.

President Donald Trump speaks at a cabinet meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House, Thursday, April 10, 2025, in Washington. (Pool via AP)
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Mr Trump, pictured at a cabinet meeting at the White House earlier this week, has called for Russia to ‘get moving’. Pic: AP

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Secondary sanctions could be imposed on countries that buy Russian oil, Mr Trump has said, if he feels Moscow is dragging its feet on a deal.

Mr Putin has said he is ready in principle to agree a full ceasefire, but argues crucial conditions have yet to be agreed – and that what he calls the root causes of the war have yet to be addressed.

The Russian president wants to dismantle Ukraine as an independent, functioning state and has demanded Kyiv recognise Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and other partly occupied areas, and pull its forces out, as well as a pledge for Ukraine to never join NATO and for the size of its army to be limited.

Zelenskyy renews support calls after attack on home city

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Children killed in strike on Zelenskyy’s home town

Meanwhile, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has renewed his appeals for more Patriot air defence systems after the deaths of 20 people, including nine children, who were killed when a Russian missile hit apartment buildings and a playground in his home city of Kryvyi Rih last week.

Speaking online at a meeting of the so-called Ramstein group of about 50 nations that provide military support to Ukraine, named after a previous meeting at America’s Ramstein air base in Germany in 2022, Mr Zelenskyy said recent Russian attacks showed Moscow was not ready to accept and implement any realistic and effective peace proposals.

Mr Zelenskyy also made his evening address to the nation, saying: “Ukraine is not just asking – we are ready to buy appropriate additional systems.”

The UK’s defence secretary, John Healy, has said this is “the critical year” for Ukraine – and has confirmed £450m in funding for a military support package.

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