Tory leadership: The case for and against another ‘disrupter’ prime minister I Adam Boulton

Published

3 years ago

October 21, 2022

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It could be all over on Monday or the Conservatives may be about to mesmerise the nation with another round of vicious infighting.

The Conservative Party rules can’t be changed. They are that Conservative MPs draw up a shortlist of two candidates from their number.

The 180,000 paid-up and unelected party members then choose between them. Less than half of those eligible to vote actually voted for Liz Truss last time but they still overruled the MPs’ preference and saddled the nation with a prime minister who lasted less than 50 days.

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Sir Graham Brady and the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers have done what they can to try to stop it happening again by changing the way MPs draw up the shortlist. It is possible that the MPs will present the membership with a fait accompli early next week.

After the bumpy ride for the country and their party under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, senior Tory backbenchers have done what they can to ensure an orderly transition to an orthodox candidate: most likely Rishi Sunak or Penny Mordaunt, who were the runners-up in the last contest which, amazingly, elected Ms Truss less than two months ago.

As things stand, however, there is a chance that these best laid plans could go awry, resulting in Britain ending up with another “disrupter” prime minister drawn from an unrepresentative band of populist libertarians.

How will Tories pick the new PM?

The ’22 have set the threshold for nominations high. To enter the contest, a candidate will need to gather written backing from 100 fellow Tory MPs over this weekend. That is five times higher than the 20 required last time and has the desired effect of limiting the field to a maximum of three candidates since there are only 357 Conservatives in the Commons.

Nominations will close at 2pm on Monday. MPs will then vote, with the results declared at 6pm. Theoretically, that may not be necessary. It is possible that only one candidate – Rishi Sunak, the runaway favourite – will get enough nominations. He would then win by a walkover, similiar to the way Gordon Brown took over the premiership from Tony Blair.

Nominating someone is more potent than just voting for them. Remember the charity nominations Margaret Beckett and other “morons”, her words not mine, gave Jeremy Corbyn so he could run. This time MPs might decide that Mr Sunak is going to win anyway, so for a quiet life and possibly currying favour with the new boss they could give him a key to No 10.

But in the final round this summer, Mr Sunak led with 137 votes, to 113 for Ms Truss and 105 for Penny Mordaunt. Ms Mordaunt wants to run again and is scrabbling for her base to nominate her. In polls this summer she was more popular with Tory voters than Mr Sunak. She would prefer a straight fight with Mr Sunak, whether that comes about because only she and he are nominated or because they beat a possible third candidate in an initial vote.

If there are two candidates left for the membership to choose from, there will be an online ballot of the membership next week, with the result declared on Friday. Before that, the ’22 have already said that there will be “an indicative vote” between them first by MPs. The purpose of this is to send a powerful and unambiguous message to the membership about whom MPs want as leader. In choosing Ms Truss last time they went against the MPs’ first preference of Sunak.

If Mr Sunak and Ms Mordaunt are the final two, they could still take the decision out of the membership’s hands by agreeing that one who has least backing from MPs withdraw in favour of the one with most, allowing him or her to become prime minister. They would also both commit in advance to serve in the same cabinet and to keep Jeremy Hunt as chancellor .

Will Johnson derail the smooth transition?

Such a smooth transition would be derailed if there is a third candidate with 100 nominations.

All eyes are on Boris Johnson, who is said, like Donald Trump, to want a comeback. If, and it is a big if, he gets on to the starting grid, there could be a stampede of MPs who might decide he looks like a vote winner and put him into the second round against either Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak.

His chances of victory and re-election by the membership would be very high. He is popular and he is the only candidate who can claim a personal mandate, having led the party to victory in the 2019 general election.

But, but, but.

Tory MPs and cabinet ministers turfed out Mr Johnson this summer for serial dishonesty and sending others out to lie on his behalf. Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries and a few diehards may be calling on him to return but he has never been loved by the rank and file of the parliamentary party, who control the nominations. Nor does he fit snuggly with the libertarian, UKIP-style entryists of the European Research Group, who are now fighting a rear-guard action to preserve their influence in the party.

There are obvious efforts by Johnson supporters in parliament and the media to talk him up this weekend. But his shooting star support from some MPs could easily plateau short of 100 nominations. If so, having drawn attention to himself yet again, Mr Johnson would most likely return to his less demanding, more lucrative exertions on the US lecture circuit.

Could an unlikely outsider emerge?

If it is not Mr Johnson, someone else could emerge as the third challenger.

Suella Braverman fancies her chances and her sacking as Ms Truss’s home secretary positions her to rally the right. Kemi Badenoch also has high ambitions.

Fortunately for Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak, Jeremy Hunt and Ben Wallace have both ruled themselves out of the race. It is unlikely anyone else would be able to muster 100 nominating signatures.

Shell-shocked Tory MPs do not want to take the risk of taking a punt on another incoherent or incompetent leader. They want a well-known figure with a proven track record to steady the ship.

In the ultimate reckoning, this is likely to count against Ms Mordaunt. At 49, she is older than Mr Sunak, 42, and has been in parliament five years longer, since 2010. But she has served barely two years as a cabinet minister.

Mr Sunak by contrast has three years in cabinet under his belt, two of them as the chancellor who piloted the economy through COVID.

MPs have the future of the nation in their hands. One option would be to open the door to the return of the discredited individual they kicked out a few months ago. Or they could shut him out for good and opt for a technocrat.

World

‘Horrific incident’ at sheriff training facility in LA – at least three people dead

Published

5 hours ago

July 18, 2025

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'Horrific incident' at sheriff training facility in LA - at least three people dead

At least three people have been killed after a “horrific incident” at a Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department training facility, officials have said.

A spokesperson for the department said there was an explosion at the Biscailuz Center Academy Training in east LA.

The incident was reported at around 7.30am local time (3.30pm UK time).

Aerial footage from local channel KABC-TV suggests the blast happened in a parking lot filled with sheriff patrol cars and box trucks.

Attorney general Pam Bondi wrote on X: “I just spoke to @USAttyEssayli about what appears to be a horrific incident that killed at least three at a law enforcement training facility in Los Angeles.

“Our federal agents are at the scene and we are working to learn more.”

California congressman Jimmy Sanchez said the explosion had “claimed the lives of at least three deputies”.

“My condolences to the families and everyone impacted by this loss,” he said.

The attorney general said in a follow-up post that agents from the FBI and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives are “on the ground to support”.

The mayor of Los Angeles, Karen Bass, said the LAPD bomb squad has also responded to the scene.

“The thoughts of all Angelenos are with all of those impacted by this blast,” she said.

California Governor Gavin Newsom has been briefed on the incident, his press office said in a post on X.

“The Governor’s Office of Emergency Services is in contact with the Sheriff’s Department and closely monitoring the situation, and has offered full state assistance,” it added.

The cause of the explosion is being investigated.

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Unmasked: The 18 Russian spies who mounted series of attacks on UK

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5 hours ago

July 18, 2025

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Unmasked: The 18 Russian spies who mounted series of attacks on UK

Dozens of Russian spies have been sanctioned by the government – including those responsible for targeting Yulia Skripal five years before her attempted murder in Salisbury.

The Foreign Office has announced that three units of the Russian military intelligence agency (GRU) have been hit with sanctions, alongside 18 military intelligence officers.

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GRU officers attempted to murder Yulia Skipal and her father Sergei using the deadly Novichok nerve agent in Salisbury.

The 18 military intelligence officers have been targeted because of a sustained campaign of malicious cyber activity over many years, including in the UK, the Foreign Office said.

The government also accused the GRU of using cyber and information operations to “sow chaos, division and disorder in Ukraine and across the world”.

One of the groups sanctioned, Unit 26165, conducted online reconnaissance to help target missile strikes against Mariupol, including the bombing of Mariupol Theatre where hundreds of civilians, including children, were murdered.

Other military officers who have been sanctioned previously targeted Yulia Skripal’s mobile phone with malicious malware known as X-Agent.

The Skripals had moved to the UK after Sergei Skripal became a double agent, secretly working for the UK. He was tried for high treason and imprisoned in Russia – and later exchanged in a spy swap.

But five years after Yulia’s phone was targeted, the pair were poisoned with the nerve agent, Novichok, in Salisbury. Russia has always denied being involved in the chemical attack.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy said: “GRU spies are running a campaign to destabilise Europe, undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and threaten the safety of British citizens,” Foreign Secretary David Lammy said.

“The Kremlin should be in no doubt: we see what they are trying to do in the shadows and we won’t tolerate it.”

He said the UK was taking “decisive action” with the sanctions against Russian spies.

“Putin’s hybrid threats and aggression will never break our resolve. The UK and our allies’ support for Ukraine and Europe’s security is ironclad.”

Those sanctioned today include:

Aleksandr Vladimirovich Osadchuk

Yevgeniy Mikhaylovich Serbriakov

Anatoliy Sergeyvich Kovalev

Artem Valeryvich Ochichenko

The 161st Specialist Training Centre (TsPS) (Unit 29155) of the GRU

Vladislav Yevgenyevich Borovkov

Nikolay Aleksandrovich Korchagin

Yuriy Federovich Denisov

Vitaly Aleksandrovich Shevchenko

Ivan Sergeyevich Yermakov

Aleksey Viktorovich Lukashev

Sergey Sergeyevich Vasyuk

Andrey Eduardovich Baranov

Aleksey Sergeyevich Morenets

Sergey Aleksandrovich Morgachev

Artem Adreyevich Malyshev

Yuriy Leonidovich Shikolenko

Victor Borisovich Netyksho

Dmitriy Aleksandrovich Mikhaylov

African Initiative

Artyom Sergeevich Kureyev

Anna Sergeevna Zamaraeva

Victor Aleksandrovich Lukovenko

World

Antarctica’s oldest ice arrives in UK for analysis on climate shifts

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5 hours ago

July 18, 2025

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Antarctica's oldest ice arrives in UK for analysis on climate shifts

Antarctica’s oldest ice has arrived in the UK for analysis which scientists hope will reveal more about Earth’s climate shifts.

The ice was retrieved from depths of up to 2,800 metres at Little Dome C in East Antarctica as part of an international effort to “unlock the deepest secrets of Antarctica’s ice”.

The ice cores – cylindrical tubes of ancient ice – will be analysed at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) in Cambridge, with the ultimate goal of reconstructing up to 1.5 million years of Earth’s climate history, significantly extending the current ice core record of 800,000 years.

The research is also expected to offer valuable context for predicting future climate change, Dr Liz Thomas, head of the ice cores team at the British Antarctic Survey, said.

Over the next few years, the samples will be analysed by different labs across Europe to gain understanding of Earth’s climate evolution and greenhouse gas concentrations.

Dr Thomas said: “It’s incredibly exciting to be part of this international effort to unlock the deepest secrets of Antarctica’s ice.

“The project is driven by a central scientific question: why did the planet’s climate cycle shift roughly one million years ago from a 41,000-year to a 100,000-year phasing of glacial-interglacial cycles?

“By extending the ice core record beyond this turning point, researchers hope to improve predictions of how Earth’s climate may respond to future greenhouse gas increases.”

The ice was extracted as part of the Beyond EPICA – Oldest Ice project, which is funded by the European Commission and brings together researchers from 10 European countries and 12 institutions.

“Our data will yield the first continuous reconstructions of key environmental indicators-including atmospheric temperatures, wind patterns, sea ice extent, and marine productivity-spanning the past 1.5 million years,” Dr Thomas said.

“This unprecedented ice core dataset will provide vital insights into the link between atmospheric CO₂ levels and climate during a previously uncharted period in Earth’s history, offering valuable context for predicting future climate change.”