The mood music in Westminster is that Rishi Sunak will win the Tory leadership contest and become the next prime minister of the UK.
This could be the right decision for the Conservative Party, if the most recent YouGov poll is to be believed.
Released just this morning it says voters familiar with all three candidates favour the former chancellor over Penny Mordaunt, who remains in the race, and Boris Johnson, who dropped out late last night.
But there are two stings in the tail for Mr Sunak and his colleagues.
Firstly, it would be fairer to describe him as the least unpopular candidate.
While 36% of those surveyed said they had a “favourable” opinion of him – compared to 34% for Ms Mordaunt and 30% for Mr Johnson – 64% said they had an “unfavourable” one – slightly lower than the 67% and 70% for the Commons leader and ex-prime minister.
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Secondly, his net favourability of -28 still trails behind Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, who with the same group of voters is only at -12.
In fact, another poll released yesterday by Redfield and Wilton Strategies showed it would be a much closer contest between Sir Keir and Mr Johnson.
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Asked who would be the better prime minister, 42% favoured the Labour leader compared to 39% for the former prime minister.
The gap widened between Sir Keir and Mr Sunak – 44% to 33% – and widened further still between him and Ms Mordaunt – 49% to 22%.
The former chancellor took a stronger lead over the Labour leader when it was just 2019 Conservative voters surveyed, with 58% saying he’d make a better prime minister to Sir Keir’s 25%.
But Mr Johnson was even further ahead among this group, with 69% saying he would be the superior choice over 19% for Sir Keir.
There was a similar conclusion from YouGov’s polling on Friday.
Mr Sunak came out on top of the three candidates who were then expected to enter Tory leadership race – with 43% saying he would do a good job, compared to 34% for Mr Johnson and 26% for Ms Mordaunt.
And he was the only candidate whose percentage for doing a good job was higher than those who thought they would do a bad job – 40% for Mr Sunak, 56% for Mr Johnson and 35% for Ms Mordaunt.
But yet again, the public preferred the Labour leader to all three, with 43% choosing him over the former chancellor, who got the backing of 34%.
Numerous polls taken during the chaos of the last few weeks have put Labour on eye-watering leads over the Conservatives, with the highest claiming they were 36 points ahead – unheard of since the days of Tony Blair.
So some Tories are understandably worried about the steep hill the party has to climb to win back voters before the next election comes around.
Writing in the Times, former chancellor Sajid Javid said the long-term consequences of a Labour victory would be “disastrous”, adding: “We know that support for proportional representation, a lower voting age of sixteen, and changes to rules on political donations is deep-rooted within Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.
“We would be left in the political wilderness for years under a series of coalition governments.”
Image: Sajid Javid issued a warning to his party to unite behind the new leader
Mr Javid believes Mr Sunak is the right man to “provide the leadership that we desperately need”, but he said it would be up to MPs and members to “set aside their differences and look to the future”.
“If we cannot do that, and unite behind Rishi, the party as we know it will be on the cusp of an extinction-level event.”
But what wider direction should Mr Sunak take to get the public back onside?
According to the Conservative think tank Onward, it is about breaking away from so-called Trussonomics and moving back to the centre ground on the economy to win back the voters they have lost.
According to its research, those who have moved away from the Tories since 2019 lean to the left on economic policy, with strong support for the state intervening to tackle low pay and rising inequality, and for tax and spend, especially when it comes to taking from large businesses to fund the likes of the NHS.
Meanwhile, tax cuts are only popular in 15% of constituencies across the country, and culture war issues around being “woke” or gender identities are not a priority.
“Liz Truss misunderstood Britain,” said Onward’s chief data analyst James Blagden. “The next prime minister cannot make the same mistake.”
He said it may be “unpalatable” to some in the party, but voters care about well-funded public services and stagnating wages “rather than waiting for growth to trickle down”, and they want the government to “proactively reduce the gap between rich and poor”.
Mr Blagden added: “The result of the last leadership election and the libertarian experiment that followed brought the Conservative Party close to oblivion.
“If MPs and members hope to survive as a serious fighting force then they cannot make this mistake again. They need to listen to the electorate.”
Veteran cabinet minister Michael Gove has been awarded a peerage in Rishi Sunak’s resignation honours list.
Mr Gove – now editor of The Spectator magazine – was first elected to parliament in 2005 and immediately joined then-Conservative leader David Cameron’s shadow cabinet.
He was appointed education secretary when the party entered government in 2010 and held multiple cabinet posts until the 2024 general election, when he stood down from parliament.
Mr Sunak elevated seven allies to the House of Lords, including former cabinet ministers Mark Harper, Victoria Prentis, Alister Jack, and Simon Hart. Former chief executive of the Conservative Party, Stephen Massey, also becomes a peer, as well as Eleanor Shawcross, former head of the No10 policy unit. He also awarded a number of honours.
It is traditional for prime ministers to award peerages and other gongs upon their resignation from office – with key political allies, donors and staff often rewarded.
An outgoing prime minister can request that the reigning monarch grants peerages, knighthoods, damehoods or other awards in the British honours system to any number of people.
In the case of peerages, the House of Lords Appointments Commission vets the list, and for other honours, the Cabinet Office conducts checks.
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Resignation honours are separate from dissolution honours, which are awarded by the incumbent prime minister and opposition leaders after the dissolution of parliament preceding a general election.
Here are the biggest names given honours by Mr Sunak:
Michael Gove – peerage
Image: Former cabinet minister Michael Gove. Pic: PA
From when the Conservatives returned to government in 2010, Michael Gove spent almost the whole time in a ministerial role.
After reforming the education system, he went on to hold roles like chief whip, environment secretary, justice secretary and housing secretary.
He led the pro-Brexit side of the 2016 referendum alongside Boris Johnson, and famously sunk the latter’s leadership bid with his own.
However, both failed at that juncture, and Mr Gove’s reputation never recovered to allow him another go at the top job.
The debt was repaid when Mr Johnson fired Mr Gove as his administration collapsed in 2022.
Mr Gove returned to government under Rishi Sunak, and ultimately retired from the Commons at the 2024 election.
James Anderson – knighthood
Image: Lancashire bowler James Anderson. Pic: PA
One of England’s most successful cricketers, Jimmy Anderson, has been awarded a knighthood in avid cricket fan Rishi Sunak’s resignation honours list.
He is regarded as one of the greatest bowlers in the history of the sport, and holds the record for the most wickets taken by a fast bowler in Test cricket.
Jeremy Hunt – knighthood
Image: Jeremy Hunt.
Pic: Reuters
A former chancellor and serial runner-up in Tory leadership competitions, Jeremy Hunt was ever present in Conservative cabinets while the party was in government.
He was both foreign secretary and defence secretary before failing to take over the party after Theresa May stood aside.
Following a stint on the backbenches, Mr Hunt returned as chancellor under Liz Truss in a bid to stabilise markets – retaining this position under Rishi Sunak.
Despite persistent speculation he was set to be ditched in favour of Claire Coutinho, Mr Hunt kept his job until the 2024 general election – where he won his seat and now sits as a backbencher.
James Cleverly – knighthood
Image: James Cleverly.
Pic: PA
A former leader of the Conservatives in the London Assembly, James Cleverly entered parliament at the 2015 general election as the MP for Braintree.
In 2018, he was appointed deputy chairman of the party, and in April 2019, was appointed a minister in the Brexit department.
Boris Johnson appointed him as party chairman after taking over the top job, and he took on a succession of junior ministerial posts before becoming education secretary following Mr Johnson’s resignation as prime minister.
Liz Truss appointed him as foreign secretary – a post he held until November 2023 when Rishi Sunak brought back David Cameron for the role, and he took over as home secretary – a post he held until the general election.
Mr Cleverly was one of the lucky cabinet ministers to survive the Labour landslide and retained his seat. But he was less successful in the Conservative Party leadership contest, losing out in the final round of MP voting.
Andrew Mitchell – knighthood
Image: Andrew Mitchell.
Pic: PA
The former deputy foreign secretary has been a fixture in Westminster since 1987, when he was first elected as the MP for Gedling. He was appointed to the government in 1994, but lost his seat in the 1997 Tony Blair landslide.
He returned to parliament in 2001 as the MP for Sutton Coldfield, and took on a number of shadow cabinet and then cabinet roles, culminating in his appointment to the Foreign Office in 2022, before becoming deputy foreign secretary to David Cameron in 2024.
He rose to public prominence in September 2012 when he allegedly swore when a police officer told him to dismount his bicycle and leave Downing Street through the pedestrian gate rather than the main gate. The incident became known as “Plebgate”.
Mel Stride – knighthood
Image: Shadow chancellor Mel Stride.
Pic: PA
One of Rishi Sunak’s closest aides, he chaired his campaign to be Tory leader against Liz Truss and was rewarded with the Work and Pensions brief when his man finally entered Number 10.
He was also a prominent figure in the downfall of Ms Truss as chair of the Treasury select committee – regularly requesting information from the Treasury and Bank of England that highlighted damaging information.
A capable media performer, he was ever present during the general election as he tried unsuccessfully to get Mr Sunak back into office.
Mr Stride kept his seat after the vote, and was rewarded by Kemi Badenoch with a role as shadow chancellor of the exchequer.
Stephen Massey – peerage
Image: Stephen Massey
Described as a “sensible man” by former chancellor George Osborne, Stephen Massey was appointed chief executive of the Conservative Party in November 2022 after Rishi Sunak took over as leader in the coronation leadership contest following the collapse of the Truss government.
Having spent his career as a financial adviser, Mr Sunak probably thought he was a safe pair of hands in which to entrust the leadership of the party machinery as they built their war chest ahead of the general election to come.
The personal donations of £343,000 to the party and £25,000 to Mr Sunak’s leadership campaign also likely made him an attractive candidate for the job.
Has Rishi Sunak previously awarded honours?
Mr Sunak previously granted peerages to former prime minister Theresa May, Sir Graham Brady, the former chairman of the influential Conservative backbench 1922 committee, as well as his right-hand man Liam Booth-Smith on 4 July 2024 – the day of the general election.
He lost the election by a landslide to Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, and resigned as prime minister that day. He remains in parliament as the MP for Richmond and Northallerton.
When the sun sets on Scunthorpe this Saturday, the town’s steelworks will likely have a new boss – Jonathan Reynolds.
The law that parliament will almost certainly approve this weekend hands the business secretary the powers to direct staff at British Steel, order raw materials and, crucially, keep the blast furnaces at the plant open.
This is not full nationalisation.
But it is an extraordinary step.
The Chinese firm Jingye will – on paper – remain the owner of British Steel.
But the UK state will insert itself into the corporate set-up to legally override the wishes of the multinational company.
A form of martial law invoked and applied to private enterprise.
Image: A general view shows British Steel’s Scunthorpe plant.
Pic Reuters
Political figures in Wales are now questioning why nationalisation wasn’t on the table for this site.
The response from government is that the deal was done by the previous Tory administration and the owners of the South Wales site agreed to the terms.
But there is also a sense that this decision over British Steel is being shaped by the domestic and international political context.
Labour came to power promising to revitalise left-behind communities and inject a sense of pride back into places still reeling from the loss of traditional industry.
With that in mind, it would be politically intolerable to see the UK’s last two blast furnaces closed and thousands of jobs lost in a relatively deprived part of the country.
Image: One of the two blast furnaces at British Steel’s Scunthorpe operation
Reform UK’s position of pushing for full and immediate nationalisation is also relevant, given the party is in electoral pursuit of Labour in many parts of the country where decline in manufacturing has been felt most acutely.
The geo-political situation is perhaps more pressing though.
Just look at the strength of the prime minister’s language in his Downing Street address – “our economic and national security are all on the line”.
The government’s reaction to the turmoil caused by President Donald Trump’s pronouncements on tariffs and security has been to emphasise the need to increase domestic resilience in both business and defence.
Becoming the only G7 nation unable to produce virgin steel at a time when globalisation appears to be in retreat hardly fits with that narrative.
It would also present serious practical questions about the ability of the UK to produce steel for defence and the broader switch to green energy production.
Then there is the intriguing subplot around US-China trade.
While this decision is separate from discussions with the White House on tariffs, one can imagine how a UK move to wrestle control of a site of national importance from its Chinese owner might go down with a US president currently engaged in a fierce trade war with Beijing.
This is a remarkable step from the government, but it is more a punctuation mark than a full answer.
The tension between manufacturing and decarbonisation remains, as do the challenges presented by a global economy appearing to fragment significantly.
But one thing is for sure.
As a political parable about changes to traditional industry and the challenges of globalisation, the saga of British Steel is hard to beat.
Hundreds of barber shops and other cash-heavy businesses have been targeted in a three-week money laundering blitz.
Police went to 265 premises, including vape shops, nail bars, American-themed sweet shops and car washes across England in a crackdown on high street crime.
The National Crime Agency (NCA) said 35 arrests were made, 97 people suspected to be victims of modern slavery were placed under police protection, and bank accounts containing more than £1m were frozen.
More than £40,000 in cash, some 200,000 cigarettes, 7,000 packs of tobacco, and more than 8,000 illegal vapes were also seized during Operation Machinize, which involved 19 different police forces and regional organised crime units.
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Officers also found two cannabis farms containing a total of 150 plants, while 10 shops have been shut down.
The NCA estimates that £12bn of criminal cash is generated in the UK each year with businesses such as barber shops, vape shops, nail bars, American-themed sweet shops and car washes often used by criminals.
Image: Goods seized during a visit to a vape shop in Rochdale. Pic: GMP/PA
Image: Police officers at a shop in Tameside. Pic: GMP/PA
Rachael Herbert, deputy director of the National Economic Crime Centre at the NCA, said: “Operation Machinize targeted barber shops and other high street businesses being used as cover for a whole range of criminality, all across the country.
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“We have seen links to drug trafficking and distribution, organised immigration crime, modern slavery and human trafficking, firearms, and the sale of illicit tobacco and vapes.
“We know cash-intensive businesses are used as fronts for money laundering, facilitating some of the highest harm and highest impact offending in the UK.”
Image: Money laundering crackdown. Pic: NCA
Security minister Dan Jarvis said the operation “highlights the scale and complexity of the criminality our towns and cities face”.
“High street crime undermines our security, our borders, and the confidence of our communities, and I am determined to take the decisive action necessary to bring those responsible to justice,” he said.