Don’t expect Britain’s first hedge fund premiership to be smooth or enjoyable | Ed Conway

Published

2 years ago

October 24, 2022

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Rishi Sunak is not just our first British Asian prime minister, our first Hindu PM.

He is not just the youngest prime minister of the modern era. He is also the youngest since the Napoleonic wars and the first millennial PM.

Just as intriguingly, and possibly even more consequentially, he is Britain’s first hedge fund prime minister too.

Before he was a politician, Mr Sunak worked in finance, both at Goldman Sachs and Chris Hohn’s hedge fund – The Children’s Investment Fund Management. His time in the sector was relatively short, but it nonetheless makes for a CV quite unlike almost every other resident of 10 Downing Street.

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Markets shaped him. And now, at the very point when the rise and fall of certain benchmarks are influencing British politics more than in any era since at least the early 1990s, we have a prime minister who takes those markets unusually seriously.

Markets helped him through the door. For, in the end, what did for Liz Truss was the extraordinary response to her mini-budget, which contributed to a dramatic leap in interest rates on both government debt and mortgages. That in turn triggered a crisis in the gilt markets which underlie Britain’s financial system.

And markets have welcomed him. The news that Boris Johnson was pulling out of the leadership race was followed by a sudden rise in the value of the pound. When trading opened in government bonds this morning, they very quickly rallied. The implied interest rate on these bonds dropped sharply.

And since these markets are the foundations of the rest of the financial system, that had an instant effect on prices elsewhere. After the mini-budget, traders were expecting Bank of England interest rates to rise to well above 6% next year; this morning the expected peak dropped below 5% for the first time since that fiscal event.

At this stage you are doubtless wondering: why on earth does any of this matter? Why are we paying so much attention to the markets? Why (as some might put it) is Britain allowing the whims of the globalist elite – the “Davos consensus” – to shape its policy? Whatever happened to democracy?

And, frankly, you have a point. A democratic country’s policies should be shaped by politicians elected by its people. That’s part of the unwritten social contract that binds us.

But the reality – depressing as it might be – is that the ability of those politicians to act is circumscribed by markets. They can, to give you a straightforward example, only borrow to the extent that investors around the world are willing to lend them money.

Markets matter not because they are right or wrong (that’s not how it works) but because that’s where the money is. And Britain, a country with enormous “twin deficits” on its current account and government account, is more reliant than pretty much any other developed economy on borrowing from those markets. This is just the way it is – ask anyone who worked at Goldman Sachs.

And that logic is worth keeping in mind as Britain’s first hedge fund prime minister takes office and begins to shape policy. Our ability to do what we want to do as a country is dependent on persuading the millions of investors around the world, taking second-by-second decisions on where to put their money, that we are on the right course. Other prime ministers (certainly the last couple) tried to ignore that; it’s unlikely that a “hedge fund prime minister” would.

However, the economic challenges that face Mr Sunak go well beyond the tick-tick-tick of a gilt chart. He enters Number 10 with the UK economy quite plausibly in recession. Energy costs remain at unprecedented highs (even though the wholesale cost of gas has fallen sharply).

So too do food prices and the costs of all sorts of household sundries. Further shocks from the Ukraine war seem highly likely. And on top of this, households will have to contend, in the coming year or so, with a very sharp increase in mortgage costs. Even the slight improvement in those interest rates since Mr Sunak became the odds-on favourite for PM does little to change that.

In short, even in a best-case scenario for the markets, the coming months for the UK economy are likely to feel grim, with households squeezed at every corner – more than they have been for decades. One can argue the toss over who bears the most responsibility for this – whether that’s the Tory party, central banks or, yes, markets. But that’s what we’re heading for.

Mr Sunak spent most of his time as chancellor doling out money during the pandemic. Normally in a recession, governments tend to “loosen fiscal policy” – which is to say, dole out more money.

But that brings us back to markets. Will those investors be relaxed about Britain borrowing more in the coming years? Will they be assured enough by the hedge fund credentials of the PM to give Britain the benefit of the doubt? Will Mr Sunak want to take that risk?

The past few weeks have been an astonishing ride in politics. We are now off the Truss rollercoaster. The Sunak journey might feel different; it might not have the same twists and turns; but don’t expect it to be especially smooth or enjoyable either.

Business

Basic questions unanswered by Shein at Business and Trade Committee despite firm eyeing London listing

Published

11 mins ago

January 8, 2025

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Basic questions unanswered by Shein at Business and Trade Committee despite firm eyeing London listing

A representative for one of the world’s biggest fast fashion retailers, Shein was unable to answer questions from MPs over where it sources its cotton from.

Shein’s general counsel for Europe Middle East Africa (EMEA) Yinan Zhu was asked if the company sells products containing cotton from China, mainly the region of Xinjiang, where China has been accused of subjecting members of the Uyghur ethnic group to forced labour.

Speaking at the Business and Trade Committee, Ms Zhu was asked several times whether the company uses cotton supplied from China.

After being pressed on the matter, she said she would have to write to the committee with an answer.

She said: “For detailed operational information and other aspects, I am not able to assist. I will have to write back to the committee afterwards.”

She added: “Obviously, we comply with laws and regulations everywhere we do business in the role. And we have supplier code of conducts, we have robust systems and procedures in place and policies in place.

“We also have very strong enforcement measures in place to ensure we adhere to these standards that are expected in our supply chain.”

When asked if the company believed forced labour took place in Xinjiang, Ms Zhu reminded MPs of the “agenda of the committee, as I understand it, we’re looking at upholding standards”, before adding: “I’m only able to answer the questions that are relating to our business.”

Shein was founded in China in 2012 and is now a leader in fast fashion, shipping to 150 countries.

Committee chairman Liam Byrne challenged Ms Zhu, but she repeated she would have to write to the committee afterwards.

Mr Byrne said the parliamentary committee was “horrified” by the lack of information provided and said Zhu’s statements gave lawmakers “zero confidence” in the integrity of Shein’s supply chains.

“The reluctance to answer basic questions has frankly bordered on contempt,” Mr Byrne said.

The top lawyer’s responses were said to be “ridiculous” and “very unhelpful and disrespectful” by committee member Charlie Maynard.

When Ms Zhu said she was answering to the best of her ability, the Lib Dem MP said: “That is simply not true. We’ve asked you some very, very, very simple questions and you are not giving us straight answers.”

Ms Zhu also said she was unable to say anything about reports the online giant was preparing to list as a public company on the London Stock Exchange.

Sky News reported exclusively in June that Shein had prepared to file a prospectus with the Financial Conduct Authority for approval ahead of a potential float on the exchange.

But when asked on Tuesday if this was true, and why the company had stopped pursuing a New York Stock Exchange float, Ms Zhu said she was unable to comment on any IPO (initial public offering) speculation as it was not her remit.

Business

UK long-term borrowing costs highest this century

Published

9 hours ago

January 7, 2025

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UK long-term borrowing costs highest this century

UK long-term borrowing costs have hit their highest level since 1998.

The unwanted milestone for the Treasury’s coffers was reached ahead of an auction of 30-year bonds, known as gilts, this morning.

The yield – the effective interest rate demanded by investors to hold UK public debt – peaked at 5.21%.

At that level, it is even above the yield seen in the wake of the mini-budget backlash of 2022 when financial markets baulked at the Truss government’s growth agenda which contained no independent scrutiny from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

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The premium is up, market analysts say, because of growing concerns the Bank of England will struggle to cut interest rates this year.

Just two cuts are currently priced in for 2025 as investors fear policymakers’ hands could be tied by a growing threat of stagflation.

The jargon essentially covers a scenario when an economy is flatlining at a time of rising unemployment and inflation.

Growth has ground to a halt, official data and private surveys have shown, since the second half of last year.

Critics of the government have accused Sir Keir Starmer and his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, of talking down the economy since taking office in July amid their claims of needing to fix a “£22bn black hole” in the public finances.

Both warned of a tough budget ahead. That first fiscal statement put businesses and the wealthy on the hook for £40bn of tax rises.

Corporate lobby groups have since warned of a hit to investment, pay growth and jobs to help offset the additional costs.

At the same time, consumer spending has remained constrained amid stubborn price growth elements in the economy.

Higher borrowing costs also reflect a rising risk premium globally linked to the looming return of Donald Trump as US president and his threats of universal trade tariffs.

The higher borrowing bill will pose a problem for Ms Reeves as she seeks to borrow more to finance higher public investment and spending.

Tuesday’s auction saw the Debt Management Office sell £2.25bn of 30-year gilts to investors at an average yield of 5.198%.

It was the highest yield for a 30-year gilt since its first auction in May 1998, Refinitiv data showed.

This extra borrowing could mean Ms Reeves is at risk of breaking the spending rules she created for herself, to bring down debt, and so she may have less money to spend, analysts at Capital Economics said.

“There is a significant chance that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will judge that the Chancellor Rachel Reeves is on course to miss her main fiscal rule when it revises its forecasts on 26 March. To maintain fiscal credibility, this may mean that Ms Reeves is forced to tighten fiscal policy further,” said Ruth Gregory, the deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics.