After a swift leadership race, Rishi Sunak has won the contest to take over the Tory Party and become the next prime minister of the UK.
And it could be the right decision for the Conservative Party, if the most recent YouGov poll is to be believed.
Released just this morning it says voters familiar with all three candidates favour the former chancellor over Penny Mordaunt, who remains in the race, and Boris Johnson, who dropped out late last night.
But there are two stings in the tail for Mr Sunak and his colleagues.
Firstly, it would be fairer to describe him as the least unpopular candidate.
While 36% of those surveyed said they had a “favourable” opinion of him – compared to 34% for Ms Mordaunt and 30% for Mr Johnson – 64% said they had an “unfavourable” one – slightly lower than the 67% and 70% for the Commons leader and ex-prime minister.
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Secondly, his net favourability of -28 still trails behind Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, who with the same group of voters is only at -12.
In fact, another poll released yesterday by Redfield and Wilton Strategies showed it would be a much closer contest between Sir Keir and Mr Johnson.
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Asked who would be the better prime minister, 42% favoured the Labour leader compared to 39% for the former prime minister.
The gap widened between Sir Keir and Mr Sunak – 44% to 33% – and widened further still between him and Ms Mordaunt – 49% to 22%.
The new Tory chief took a stronger lead over the Labour leader when it was just 2019 Conservative voters surveyed, with 58% saying he’d make a better prime minister to Sir Keir’s 25%.
But Mr Johnson was even further ahead among this group, with 69% saying he would be the superior choice over 19% for Sir Keir.
There was a similar conclusion from YouGov’s polling on Friday.
Mr Sunak came out on top of the three candidates who were then expected to enter Tory leadership race – with 43% saying he would do a good job, compared to 34% for Mr Johnson and 26% for Ms Mordaunt.
And he was the only candidate whose percentage for doing a good job was higher than those who thought they would do a bad job – 40% for Mr Sunak, 56% for Mr Johnson and 35% for Ms Mordaunt.
But yet again, the public preferred the Labour leader to all three, with 43% choosing him over the former chancellor, who got the backing of 34%.
Numerous polls taken during the chaos of the last few weeks have put Labour on eye-watering leads over the Conservatives, with the highest claiming they were 36 points ahead – unheard of since the days of Tony Blair.
So some Tories are understandably worried about the steep hill the party has to climb to win back voters before the next election comes around.
Writing in the Times, former chancellor Sajid Javid said the long-term consequences of a Labour victory would be “disastrous”, adding: “We know that support for proportional representation, a lower voting age of sixteen, and changes to rules on political donations is deep-rooted within Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.
“We would be left in the political wilderness for years under a series of coalition governments.”
Image: Sajid Javid issued a warning to his party to unite behind the new leader
Mr Javid believes Mr Sunak is the right man to “provide the leadership that we desperately need”, but he said it would be up to MPs and members to “set aside their differences and look to the future”.
“If we cannot do that, and unite behind Rishi, the party as we know it will be on the cusp of an extinction-level event.”
But what wider direction should Mr Sunak take to get the public back onside?
According to the Conservative think tank Onward, it is about breaking away from so-called Trussonomics and moving back to the centre ground on the economy to win back the voters they have lost.
According to its research, those who have moved away from the Tories since 2019 lean to the left on economic policy, with strong support for the state intervening to tackle low pay and rising inequality, and for tax and spend, especially when it comes to taking from large businesses to fund the likes of the NHS.
Meanwhile, tax cuts are only popular in 15% of constituencies across the country, and culture war issues around being “woke” or gender identities are not a priority.
“Liz Truss misunderstood Britain,” said Onward’s chief data analyst James Blagden. “The next prime minister cannot make the same mistake.”
He said it may be “unpalatable” to some in the party, but voters care about well-funded public services and stagnating wages “rather than waiting for growth to trickle down”, and they want the government to “proactively reduce the gap between rich and poor”.
Mr Blagden added: “The result of the last leadership election and the libertarian experiment that followed brought the Conservative Party close to oblivion.
“If MPs and members hope to survive as a serious fighting force then they cannot make this mistake again. They need to listen to the electorate.”
It’s a year since the US put Donald Trump back in the White House and I’ve spent this anniversary week in Florida and in Pennsylvania – two worlds in one country where I found two such contrasting snapshots of Trump’s America.
There are many ways to reflect on the successes and failures of the past year. Different issues matter to different people. But the thing which matters to all Americans is money.
The cost of living was a key factor in Donald Trump’s victory. He promised to make the country more affordable again. So: how’s he done?
On Wednesday, exactly a year since Americans went to the polls, the president was in Miami. He had picked this city and a particular crowd for his anniversary speech.
I was in the audience at the America Business Forum as he told wealthy entrepreneurs and investors how great life is now.
“One year ago we were a dead country, now we’re considered the hottest country in the world.” he told them to cheers. “Record high, record high, record high…”
The vibe was glitzy and wealthy. These days, these are his voters; his crowd.
“After just one year since that glorious election, I’m thrilled to say that America is back, America is back bigger, better, stronger than ever.” he said.
“We’ve done really well. I think it’s the best nine months, they say, of any president. And I really believe that if we can have a few more nine months like this, you’d be very happy. You’d be very satisfied.”
There was little question here that people are happy.
Image: Liz Ciborowski says Trump has been good for the economy
“Trump’s been a good thing?” I asked one attendee, Liz Ciborowski.
“Yes. He has really pushed for a lot of issues that are really important for our economy,” she said.
“I’m an investor,” said another, Andrea.
“I’m a happy girl. I’m doing good,” she said with a laugh.
Image: Andrea says she’s happy with how the economy is faring
A year on from his historic victory, the president was, notably, not with the grassroots folk in the places that propelled him back to the White House.
He had chosen to be among business leaders in Miami. Safe crowd, safe state, safe space.
But there was just one hint in his speech which seemed to acknowledge the reality that should be a concern for him.
“We have the greatest economy right now,” he said, adding: “A lot of people don’t see that.”
That is the crux of it: many people beyond the fortunate here don’t feel the “greatest economy” he talks about. And many of those people are in the places that delivered Trump his victory.
That’s the untold story of the past year.
A thousand miles to the north of Miami is another America – another world.
Steelton, Pennsylvania sits in one of Donald Trump’s heartlands. But it is not feeling the beat of his greatest economy. Not at all.
At the local steel union, I was invited to attend a meeting of a group of steel workers. It was an intimate glimpse into a hard, life-changing moment for the men.
The steel plant is shutting down and they were listening to their union representative explaining what happens next.
Image: David Myers used to be employed at the steelworks
The conversation was punctuated with all the words no one wants to hear: laid off, severance, redundancy.
“For over 100 years, my family has been here working. And I was planning on possibly one day having my son join me, but I don’t know if that’s a possibility now,” former employee David Myers tells me.
“And…” he pauses. “Sorry I’m getting a little emotional about it. We’ve been supplying America with railroad tracks for over a century and a half, and it feels weird for it to be coming to an end.”
Cleveland Cliffs Steelton plant is closing because of weakening demand, according to its owners. Their stock price has since surged. Good news for the Miami crowd, probably. It is the irony between the two Americas.
Down at the shuttered plant, it’s empty, eerie and depressing. It is certainly not the image or the vision that Donald Trump imagined for his America.
Pennsylvania, remember, was key to propelling Trump back to the White House. In this swing state, they swung to his promises – factories reopened and life more affordable.
Up the road, conversations outside the town’s government-subsidised homes frame the challenges here so starkly.
“How much help does the community need?” I asked a man running the local food bank.
Image: Elder Melvin Watts is a community organiser
“As much as they can get. I mean, help is a four-letter word but it has a big meaning. So help!” community organiser Elder Melvin Watts said.
I asked if he thought things were worse than a year ago.
“Yes sir. I believe they needed it then and they need it that much more now. You know it’s not hard to figure that out. The cost of living is high.”
Nearby, I met a woman called Sandra.
Image: Sandra says it’s getting harder to make ends meet
“It’s been harder, and I’m a hard-working woman.” she told me. “I don’t get no food stamps, I don’t get none of that. You’ve got to take care of them bills, eat a little bit or don’t have the lights on. Then you have people like Mr Melvin, he’s been out here for years, serving the community.”
Inside Mr Melvin’s food bank, a moment then unfolded that cut to the heart of the need here.
A woman called Geraldine Santiago arrived, distressed, emotional and then overwhelmed by the boxes of food available to her.
“We’ll help you…” Mr Melvin said as she sobbed.
Image: Geraldine’s welfare has been affected by the shutdown
Geraldine is one of 40 million Americans now not receiving the full nutritional assistance programme, known as SNAP, and usually provided by the federal government.
SNAP benefits have stopped because the government remains shut down amid political deadlock.
I watched Geraldine’s rollercoaster emotions spilling out – from desperation to gratitude at this moment of respite. She left with a car boot full of food.
A year on from his victory, Donald Trump continues to frame himself as the “America First” president and now with an economy transformed. But parts of America feel far, far away.
Pirates firing machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades have boarded a tanker off the coast of Somalia.
Greek shipping company Latsco Marine Management confirmed its vessel, Hellas Aphrodite, had been attacked in the early hours of Thursday.
The tanker, which was carrying fuel, was en route from India to South Africa when a “security incident” took place, the firm said.
“All 24 crew are safe and accounted for and we remain in close contact with them,” it added in a statement.
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The crew members took shelter in the ship’s “citadel”, or fortified safe room, and remain there, an official from maritime security company Diaplous said.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency issued an alert to warn ships in the area.
It located the vessel 560 nautical miles southeast of Eyl, Somalia, in the Indian Ocean. Eyl became famous in the mid-2000s as the centre of a string of piracy attacks.
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“The Master of a vessel has reported being approached by one small craft on its stern. The small craft fired small arms and RPGs [rocket-propelled grenades] towards the vessel,” UKMTO said in a statement.
EU forces move in on tanker
The European Union’s Operation Atalanta, a counter-piracy mission around the Horn of Africa, said one of its assets was “close to the incident” and “ready to take the appropriate actions”.
That EU force has responded to other recent pirate attacks in the area and had issued a recent alert that a pirate group was operating off Somalia and assaults were “almost certain” to happen.
Private security firm Ambrey has claimed that Somali pirates were operating from an Iranian fishing boat they had seized and had opened fire on the tanker.
Thursday’s attack comes after another vessel, the Cayman Islands-flagged Stolt Sagaland, found itself targeted in a suspected pirate attack that included both its armed security force and the attackers shooting at each other, the EU force said.
The vessel’s operator Stolt-Nielsen confirmed there was an attempted attack, early on 3 November, which was unsuccessful.
Somali pirate gangs have been relatively inactive in recent years. In May 2024, suspected pirates boarded the Liberian-flagged vessel Basilisk. EU naval forces later rescued the 17 crew members.
Meanwhile, the last hijacking took place in December 2023, when the Maltese-flagged Ruen was taken by assailants to the Somali coast before Indian naval forces freed the crew and arrested the attackers.
Hellas Aphrodite was en route from Sikka, India, to Durban, South Africa.
The Malta-flagged tanker is described as an oil/chemical tanker, 183m long and 32m wide, which was built in 2016, according to vesselfinder.com.