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After a swift leadership race, Rishi Sunak has won the contest to take over the Tory Party and become the next prime minister of the UK.

And it could be the right decision for the Conservative Party, if the most recent YouGov poll is to be believed.

Released just this morning it says voters familiar with all three candidates favour the former chancellor over Penny Mordaunt, who remains in the race, and Boris Johnson, who dropped out late last night.

But there are two stings in the tail for Mr Sunak and his colleagues.

Sunak tight-lipped as he arrives in Westminster – live updates

Firstly, it would be fairer to describe him as the least unpopular candidate.

While 36% of those surveyed said they had a “favourable” opinion of him – compared to 34% for Ms Mordaunt and 30% for Mr Johnson – 64% said they had an “unfavourable” one – slightly lower than the 67% and 70% for the Commons leader and ex-prime minister.

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Secondly, his net favourability of -28 still trails behind Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, who with the same group of voters is only at -12.

In fact, another poll released yesterday by Redfield and Wilton Strategies showed it would be a much closer contest between Sir Keir and Mr Johnson.

Asked who would be the better prime minister, 42% favoured the Labour leader compared to 39% for the former prime minister.

The gap widened between Sir Keir and Mr Sunak – 44% to 33% – and widened further still between him and Ms Mordaunt – 49% to 22%.

Redfield & Wilton

The new Tory chief took a stronger lead over the Labour leader when it was just 2019 Conservative voters surveyed, with 58% saying he’d make a better prime minister to Sir Keir’s 25%.

But Mr Johnson was even further ahead among this group, with 69% saying he would be the superior choice over 19% for Sir Keir.

There was a similar conclusion from YouGov’s polling on Friday.

Mr Sunak came out on top of the three candidates who were then expected to enter Tory leadership race – with 43% saying he would do a good job, compared to 34% for Mr Johnson and 26% for Ms Mordaunt.

And he was the only candidate whose percentage for doing a good job was higher than those who thought they would do a bad job – 40% for Mr Sunak, 56% for Mr Johnson and 35% for Ms Mordaunt.

But yet again, the public preferred the Labour leader to all three, with 43% choosing him over the former chancellor, who got the backing of 34%.

YouGov

Numerous polls taken during the chaos of the last few weeks have put Labour on eye-watering leads over the Conservatives, with the highest claiming they were 36 points ahead – unheard of since the days of Tony Blair.

So some Tories are understandably worried about the steep hill the party has to climb to win back voters before the next election comes around.

Writing in the Times, former chancellor Sajid Javid said the long-term consequences of a Labour victory would be “disastrous”, adding: “We know that support for proportional representation, a lower voting age of sixteen, and changes to rules on political donations is deep-rooted within Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.

“We would be left in the political wilderness for years under a series of coalition governments.”

Former Health Secretary Sajid Javid leaves his home in south west London following his resignation on Tuesday. Picture date: Wednesday July 6, 2022.
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Sajid Javid issued a warning to his party to unite behind the new leader

Mr Javid believes Mr Sunak is the right man to “provide the leadership that we desperately need”, but he said it would be up to MPs and members to “set aside their differences and look to the future”.

“If we cannot do that, and unite behind Rishi, the party as we know it will be on the cusp of an extinction-level event.”

But what wider direction should Mr Sunak take to get the public back onside?

According to the Conservative think tank Onward, it is about breaking away from so-called Trussonomics and moving back to the centre ground on the economy to win back the voters they have lost.

According to its research, those who have moved away from the Tories since 2019 lean to the left on economic policy, with strong support for the state intervening to tackle low pay and rising inequality, and for tax and spend, especially when it comes to taking from large businesses to fund the likes of the NHS.

Meanwhile, tax cuts are only popular in 15% of constituencies across the country, and culture war issues around being “woke” or gender identities are not a priority.

Onward survey

“Liz Truss misunderstood Britain,” said Onward’s chief data analyst James Blagden. “The next prime minister cannot make the same mistake.”

He said it may be “unpalatable” to some in the party, but voters care about well-funded public services and stagnating wages “rather than waiting for growth to trickle down”, and they want the government to “proactively reduce the gap between rich and poor”.

Mr Blagden added: “The result of the last leadership election and the libertarian experiment that followed brought the Conservative Party close to oblivion.

“If MPs and members hope to survive as a serious fighting force then they cannot make this mistake again. They need to listen to the electorate.”

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Donald Trump refuses to rule out military force over Panama Canal and Greenland – as he warns NATO to spend more

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Donald Trump refuses to rule out military force over Panama Canal and Greenland - as he warns NATO to spend more

US president-elect Donald Trump has refused to rule out military or economic action to seize the Panama Canal and Greenland – as he said he believes NATO spending should be increased to 5% per member state.

Speaking at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, Mr Trump made a series of sweeping claims on what his policies could look like when he takes office on 20 January.

He said he believes NATO spending should be increased to 5% per member state, while he also declared US control of Greenland and the Panama Canal as vital to American national security.

The 78-year-old Republican also spoke of relations with Canada, as well as addressing his position on the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.

Sky News takes a look at some of the key claims brought up during the conference.

NATO

Mr Trump claimed “nobody knows more about NATO than I do”, before adding: “If it weren’t for me, NATO wouldn’t exist right now.

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“I raised from countries that weren’t paying their bills, over $680bn. I saved NATO, but NATO is taking advantage of us.”

The president-elect also said members of NATO should be contributing 5% of their GDPs (gross domestic product) to defence spending – the previous target has been 2%.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump makes remarks at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S. January 7, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
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Donald Trump speaking at Mar-a-Lago. Pic: Reuters

Greenland and Panama Canal

Asked if he can reassure the world he won’t resort to military action or economic coercion in trying to get control of the areas, he said: “No, I can’t assure you on either of those two.”

“But, I can say this, we need them for economic security.”

He didn’t add any further detail around Greenland – which he has recently suggested the US should own or control – but he said the Panama Canal “was built for our military”.

He said the canal was “vital” to the country and China was “operating” it.

Mr Trump criticised the late Jimmy Carter for his role in signing over the Panama Canal to Panama during his presidency, saying it’s “a disgrace what took place” and “Jimmy Carter gave it to them for one dollar.”

Canada

A day after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he was stepping down, Mr Trump said he believed the US’ northern neighbour should become the 51st US state.

He mocked Mr Trudeau by calling him “governor” rather than prime minister.

He argued the US and Canada combined would amount to an “economic force” that would “really be something”.

“There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States,” Mr Trudeau responded.

Israel-Hamas war

Israel has been waging a 15-month war on the militant group ruling Gaza, Hamas, since they launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel on 7 October which saw 1,200 people massacred and about 250 taken hostage, many of whom remain in captivity.

Mr Trump said: “If those hostages aren’t back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East.”

Nearly 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s assault on Gaza, according to Hamas-run health officials in the enclave.

Analysis: Trump’s warning risks becoming less threatening

Ukraine war

Referring to Russia’s ongoing full-scale war against its smaller neighbour, Mr Trump said a “big part of the problem” was Russian President Vladimir Putin had said for many years he did not want Ukraine involved with NATO.

“Somewhere along the line [outgoing President Joe] Biden said you can join NATO,” he said.

“Well, then Russia has NATO right on their doorstep.

“When I heard the way Biden was negotiating I said ‘you are going to end up in a war’ and it turned out to be a war.”

Asked if he would commit to keep supporting Ukraine during negotiations with Moscow, Mr Trump quipped: “Well, I wouldn’t tell you if that were the case.”

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Mr Trump win’s certified by rival Kamala Harris

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Offshore drilling

Mr Trump repeated one of his favourite phrases from the campaign trail, “drill, baby, drill”.

On Monday, outgoing President Biden moved to ban new offshore oil and gas developments along most US coastlines.

But Mr Trump, who has vowed to boost domestic energy production, said he will undo it.

“We’re going to be drilling a lot of other locations,” he said.

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Donald Trump’s threats could be a make-or-break test for NATO

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Donald Trump's threats could be a make-or-break test for NATO

The public articulation by Donald Trump of a new desired target for NATO allies to spend 5% of national income on defence will surely plunge governments across Europe into crisis mode – not least here in the UK.

Britain presents itself to the world and in particular to the United States as the biggest defence spender in Europe and NATO’s most powerful European military.

Yet Sir Keir Starmer has not even managed to set out a timeline for what he describes as a “path to 2.5%” of GDP being invested in his armed forces, up from just over 2% today.

If the prime minister merely sticks to this pledge, he risks being viewed by the new administration as woefully unambitious and not credible on defence.

Then there is the extraordinary threat by Mr Trump to seize Greenland by force if necessary, even though this valuable piece of territory belongs to a fellow NATO ally in the form of Denmark.

The move – were it to happen – would demonstrate the limitations of the alliance’s Article 5 founding principle.

It is supposed to guarantee that all allies would come to the defence of any member state which is under armed attack.

But what about if the aggressor is also meant to be an ally?

The president-elect also appeared to dash any hope of Ukraine being offered membership to the alliance anytime soon – a core request of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Instead, Mr Trump sounded sympathetic to Vladimir Putin’s absolute opposition to such a move.

He said he would meet the Russian president after taking office – reiterating a promise to end the war in Ukraine, though again without spelling out how.

The outbursts came in a lengthy press conference on Tuesday that marked the starting shot in what could be a make-or-break test for NATO – an alliance of transatlantic friends that rose from the ashes of the Second World War.

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A guide to everything about Trump’s inauguration

European members of NATO, as well as Canada, already took a battering the last time Mr Trump was in the White House – and rightly so.

The US had for far too long largely bankrolled the security of Europe, while the majority of its allies – including the UK – reaped the so-called “peace dividend” that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, swapping expenditure on defence for peacetime priorities such as economic growth, healthcare and education.

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From 2019: Was this the most awkward NATO summit ever?

Mr Trump made clear during his first term his displeasure about what he saw as Washington being ripped off and vowed to make Europe take its fair share of the burden.

He even warned member states that the US would not come to the aid of an ally that was not hitting at the very least a minimum NATO spending targeting of 2% of GDP – something they had previously pledged to do by 2024 but were slow to deliver on.

Such language electrified allies in a way that even Putin’s initial 2014 invasion of Ukraine, with the annexation of Crimea and attacks in the east of the country, had not.

Yet, with the threat from Russia growing in the wake of its full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022, coupled with conflict in the Middle East and the challenge posed by China, it has become clear that this heightened level of expenditure by allies was still far short of what is required to rebuild militaries across Europe that have been hollowed out over decades.

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Mark Rutte, the new secretary general of NATO, set the stage for what is expected to be another push to ramp up investment when he delivered a landmark speech last month in which he called on allies to return to a “war mindset” and “turbocharge” defence spending.

He said this was to counter growing threats, but observers said it was also a pre-emptive response to the anticipated demands of the next Trump administration.

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‘Ukraine needs more arms, less talking’

Either way, it poses a huge challenge for all allies, in particular for Sir Keir Starmer.

He and Rachel Reeves face a choice: change course when it comes to their top priorities of economic growth, hospital waiting lists and new housing and instead invest more in defence or defy what will doubtless be growing demands from the United States to spend billions of pounds more on the UK armed forces – and maybe even leave the country in a position whereby the US would not come to its aid if attacked.

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Rapid Support Forces (RSF) accused by US of committing genocide in Sudan war

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Rapid Support Forces (RSF) accused by US of committing genocide in Sudan war

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and its allied militias are committing genocide in Sudan while waging war against the army for control of the country, Joe Biden’s US administration has determined – two weeks before leaving office.

In a statement sharing the designation on Tuesday, US secretary of state Antony Blinken said the RSF and its aligned militias had “systematically murdered men and boys – even infants – on an ethnic basis” and “deliberately targeted women and girls from certain ethnic groups for rape and other forms of brutal sexual violence”.

He announced that Washington would impose sanctions on RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo and seven RSF-owned companies located in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo
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Mohamed Hamdan ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo. File pic: AP

The UAE is credibly accused of backing and arming the RSF – something it has strenuously denied.

When reached for comment by Reuters, the RSF rejected these measures and said: “America previously punished the great African freedom fighter Nelson Mandela, which was wrong.

“Today, it is rewarding those who started the war by punishing (RSF leader) general Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, which is also wrong.”

The RSF has been fighting Sudan’s army for territorial control of the country since war erupted in the capital, Khartoum, in April 2023.

The ensuing devastation has been described as the worst humanitarian crisis ever recorded – with over 11 million people forced out of their homes, tens of thousands dead, and 30 million in need of humanitarian assistance.

Sudan, Africa
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Sudan, Africa

In December 2023, Mr Blinken announced that both warring parties had committed war crimes, but that the RSF in particular had committed crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing.

He mentioned this precedent in this latest announcement, adding: “Today’s action is part of our continued efforts to promote accountability for all warring parties whose actions fuel this conflict.

“The United States does not support either side of this war, and these actions against Hemedti and the RSF do not signify support or favour for the SAF (Sudanese Armed Forces).

“Both belligerents bear responsibility for the violence and suffering in Sudan and lack the legitimacy to govern a future peaceful Sudan.”

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From November: RSF attacks farming villages leaving dozens dead

This comes twenty years after then US secretary of state Colin Powell described the conflict in Darfur, western Sudan, as a genocide in 2004.

Back then, RSF leader Hemedti was heading up a lesser-known Janjaweed militia that was carrying out state-sanctioned atrocities against civilians.

He was not held accountable then, and many wonder if this latest designation will have any impact on the actions of forces on the ground.

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