Jeremy Hunt delays Halloween economic statement
Jeremy Hunt has delayed the announcement of the government’s economic plan from Halloween to 17 November, saying it will help ministers make “difficult decisions… that stand the test of time”.
A medium term fiscal statement was due to be delivered by the chancellor in the Commons on 31 October – along with a forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility – after Liz Truss’s tax slashing mini-budget last month left a blackhole in government finances and the markets in turmoil.
But it will now be put back by more than two weeks and be turned into a full autumn statement – expanding its remit and providing longer term plans.
Mr Hunt, who remains as chancellor in Rishi Sunak’s new cabinet, said he had made the recommendation to the new prime minister to ensure any decisions are based on “accurate economic forecasts”.
And he said he was “willing to make choices that are politically embarrassing if they’re the right thing to do for the country”.
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The chancellor also revealed the autumn statement would include measures to make debt fall “over the medium term”.
“Our number one priority is economic stability and restoring confidence that the United Kingdom is a country that pays its way,” said Mr Hunt.
“But it is also extremely important the statement is based on the most accurate possible economic forecasts and forecasts of public finances.”
The Bank of England is due to make an announcement on interest rates on 3 November, meaning the original government statement would have come ahead of the decision.
Asked if it was wise to change it now, Mr Hunt said Mr Sunak’s entrance to Number 10 meant there was “the prospect of much longer term stability for the economy in the country – and in that context, a short two and a half week delay is the best way we will make sure that it is the right decisions we take”.
Rishi Sunak kept Jeremy Hunt in post after he became prime minister on Tuesday.
The chancellor added: “There has been a lot of market turbulence even in the last 48 hours, and the question is how you deal with that turbulence to make sure that the very, very important, very difficult decisions that I and the prime minister have to make are the right ones – decisions that stand the test of time and do the right thing for people at home who are worried about their mortgages, their jobs, the cost of living, the bills and so on.
“And for that reason, accuracy in the forecasts both around public finances and economic growth is very important, and that’s why this is the right decision and a prudent decision.”
What’s in a name?
By calling the 17 November announcement an “autumn statement”, the Treasury is signalling that this is a bigger deal than the announcement originally envisaged, unattractively known as the medium term fiscal statement.
However, it is also still significant they are not calling it either a budget, with a full review of tax and spending measures, or a spending review, where every government department’s budgets are set for years to come.
The job of the statement is to identify the size of the black hole the government needs to fill, and how they are going to fill it. It will be accompanied by the Office for Budget Responsibility growth forecast.
Given the job it’s going to have to do, with some curbs to spending, it is likely to feel like a “spending review-lite”. However it could also include some tax measures, like a new system to cap the profits from renewable energy regeneration, as well as a decision about benefit uprating.
Ultimately titles don’t matter in times of crisis – Liz Truss labelled her September statement a “mini budget”, yet this was the biggest set of spending announcements in one day every seen in modern times.
But Liberal Democrat MP Sarah Olney said the delay “risks leaving mortgage borrowers, pensioners and struggling families under a damaging cloud of uncertainty”.
She called on the PM to confirm benefits and pensions will be up-rated in line with inflation, and that there will be no cuts to public services, including the NHS.
“Sunak was installed by Conservative MPs into Number 10 without anyone voting for him, and without telling anyone about his plans for the country,” she said.
“The public deserve to know immediately what lies in store, and that they will not be made to pay for the Conservative Party trashing our economy.”
How did we get here?
Ms Truss came to power in September off the back of a summer of campaigning for lower taxes and higher growth.
A mini-budget by her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng spooked the markets, leading to the pound plunging, mortgages being withdrawn, and the Bank of England being forced to intervene.
Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng announced huge plans based on government borrowing that sent the markets into a spin.
He was replaced by Mr Hunt and within three days had reversed nearly all of the policies.
Read more:
What was in the mini-budget and what has been scrapped?
Rishi Sunak appoints new cabinet – here’s who’s in and who’s out
Ms Truss resigned in the same week, and has now been replaced by Mr Sunak, who promised on the steps of Downing Street that “economic stability and confidence [would be] at the heart of this government’s agenda”.
There were hints the statement could be delayed on Wednesday when Foreign Secretary James Cleverly could not confirm the date to Sky News.
And later that morning, a Treasury source told our political editor Beth Rigby that it was “very possible”.
World
In the idyllic Cognac region of southern France, Trump’s tariffs threaten a centuries-old way of life
The impact of Trump’s tariffs is reaching deep into every economy.
We travelled into the French rural heartland, heading for Cognac – the home of French brandy.
It is only half the size of Surrey but its exports to America are worth €1bn a year and that trade is now severely threatened.
The first buds are out on the vines of Amy Pasquet’s vineyard.
An American, she has married into the industry and with her French husband owns JLP Cognac.
She knows more than most the bond brandy has formed between their two countries that goes back to the war.
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Ms Pasquet said: “A lot of the African-American soldiers had really loved their experience here and had brought back the cognac. And I think that stayed because this African-American community truly is a community and they want to drink like their grandfather did.”
The ties remain with rappers like Jay Z’s love for cognac.
However, Ms Pasquet adds: “There’s also this other community of people who have been drinking bourbon for a long time, love bourbon, but find the prices just outrageous today. So they want to try something different.”
Amy Pasquet owns JLP Cognac with her husband
JLP’s products were served at New York’s prestigious Met Gala.
They were preparing to launch new product lines in the US. But now that’s in doubt.
It is hard being an American in France now, Ms Pasquet says.
Her French neighbours are appalled by what US President Donald Trump is doing.
She continues: “They’re like, okay, America’s forgotten how close France and America are as far as (their) relationship is concerned. And I think that’s hurtful on both sides. I think it’s important to remember that the US is many things, and not just this one person, and there are millions of inhabitants that didn’t vote for him.”
A fresh challenge for a centuries-old tradition
Making cognac takes years, using techniques that go back centuries. In another vineyard we met Pierre Louis Giboin whose family have been doing it for more than 200 years.
In a cellar dating back to the French Revolution, barrels of oak sit under thick cobwebs, ageing the brandy.
The walls are lined with a unique black mould that thrives off the vapours of cognac.
They have seen threats come and go over those centuries, wars, weather, pestilence. But never from a country they regard as one of their oldest allies and best of customers.
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Pierre Louis Giboin’s cellar dates back to the French revolution
Mr Trump’s tariffs, says Mr Giboin, now threaten a way of life.
“It’s at the end of like very good times in the Cognac region. It’s been like 10 years when everything’s been perfect, we have good harvest, we sell really easily all the stock, but now I mean it’s the end.”
Ms Pasquet and Mr Giboin are unusual.
Most cognac makers sell their produce through the drink’s four big houses, Hennessy, Remy Martin, Martell and Courvoisier.
Some have been told the amounts they can sell have been drastically reduced.
Independents though like them must find new markets if the tariff threat persists.
Confusion away from the chaos
Outside in the dappled light of a Cognac evening Mr Giboin and I toast glasses of pineau – the diluted form of cognac drunk as an aperitif.
In this idyllic corner of France, a world away from Washington, Mr Trump’s trade war on Europe simply makes no sense.
“He’s like angry against the whole world and the way he talks like that Europe the EU was made against the US to cheat on the US. It’s just crazy to think like this,” Mr Giboin says.
It’s not just what Mr Trump’s done. It’s how Europe now strikes back that concerns the French. And it’s not just in Cognac where they’re concerned
France exports more than €2bn worth of wine to America.
In the heart of the Bordeaux wine region, Sylvie Courselle’s family have been making wine since the 1940s at their Chateau Thieuley vineyard.
It’s bottling season but they can’t prepare the wine headed for America while everything is up in the air.
Showing me the unused reels of US labels for her wine she told me she was losing sleep over the uncertainty.
Later she was meeting with her American distributors.
Gerry Keogh sells Ms Courselle’s wine across the US.
He says the entire industry is reeling
Sylvie Courselle with distributers
The Chateau Thieuley vineyard in the Bordeaux wine region
“I think it’s like anything. You don’t really believe it’s happening. And even when you’re in the midst of it, it was kind of like 9/11.
“You’re like… This is actually happening. It’s unbelievable. And when you start seeing the repercussions from the stock market, et cetera, and how it’s impacting every level, it’s quite shocking.”
They know the crisis is far from over and could now escalate.
“We feel stuck in the middle of this commercial war and we don’t have the weapons to fight, I think,” Ms Courselle said.
It is, she says, very stressful.
Gerry Keogh
The histories of America and France have been intertwined for centuries through revolutions against tyranny and two wars fighting for liberty.
America used to call France its oldest ally, but under Donald Trump its now seen here as turning on France and the rest of Europe in a reckless and unjustified trade war.
It is all doing enormous harm to relations between the US and its European allies.
How Europe now decides to retaliate will help determine the extent of that damage.
World
Donald Trump’s 104% tariffs on China – and other levies on ‘worst offenders’ – in effect this morning
Donald Trump’s trade tariffs on what he calls “the worst offenders” come into effect at 5am UK time, with China facing by far the biggest levy.
The US will hit Chinese imports with 104% tariffs, marking a significant trade escalation between the world’s two largest superpowers.
At a briefing on Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Donald Trump “believes that China wants to make a deal with the US,” before saying: “It was a mistake for China to retaliate.
“When America is punched, he punches back harder.”
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White House announces 104% tariff on China
After Mr Trump announced sweeping levies last week – hitting some imported goods from China with 34% tariffs – Beijing officials responded with like-for-like measures.
The US president then piled on an extra 50% levy on China, taking the total to 104% unless it withdrew its retaliatory 34% tariff.
China’s commerce ministry said in turn that it would “fight to the end”, and its foreign ministry accused the US of “economic bullying” and “destabilising” the world’s economies.
‘Worst offender’ tariffs also in effect
Alongside China’s 104% tariff, roughly 60 countries – dubbed by the US president as the “worst offenders” – will also see levies come into effect today.
The EU will be hit with 20% tariffs, while countries like Vietnam and Cambodia see a 46% levy and 49% rate respectively.
The UK was not included on this list, and instead saw a “baseline”, worldwide 10% tariff on imported goods in effect from last Saturday.
At the weekend, Sir Keir Starmer promised the government was ready to “shelter British businesses from the storm”.
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What’s going on with the US and China?
Since the tariffs were announced last Wednesday, global stock markets have plummeted, with four days of steep losses for all three of the US’ major indexes.
As trading closed on Tuesday evening, the S&P 500 lost 1.49%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.15%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.84%.
According to LSEG data, S&P 500 companies have lost $5.8tn (£4.5tn) in stock market value since last Wednesday, the deepest four-day loss since the benchmark was created in the 1950s.
Global stock markets have been reeling since Trump’s tariff announcement last week. Pic: AP
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What China could do next as Trump’s tariff war ramps up
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Trump signs coal orders
Meanwhile, the US president signed four executive orders to boost American coal mining and production.
The directives order:
• keeping some coal plants that were set for retirement open;
• directing the interior secretary to “acknowledge the end” of an Obama-era moratorium that paused coal leasing on federal lands;
• requiring federal agencies to rescind policies transitioning the US away from coal production, and;
• directing the Department of Energy and other federal agencies to assess how coal energy can meet rising demand from artificial intelligence.
Read more:
The good, the bad and the ugly in Trump’s coal plans
At a White House ceremony, Mr Trump said the orders end his predecessor Joe Biden’s “war on beautiful clean coal,” and miners “will be put back to work”.
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