
Key storylines for Ohio State-Penn State and the rest of Week 9’s biggest games
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ESPN staff
Week 9 of the college football season has begun, and multiple teams with an inside track to the playoff have big tests.
Tennessee survived its biggest challenge so far, outlasting Alabama 52-49 in Knoxville. The Volunteers will now host a Kentucky team coming off a bye that already has shown a propensity to knock off ranked opponents.
Sticking with the SEC East, Georgia and Florida will travel to Jacksonville to partake in an annual rivalry game that is still in search of its own name. Unfortunately for the Gators, they enter the matchup as more than three-touchdown underdogs, but anything is possible in Jacksonville.
Farther north, Michigan will host bitter rival Michigan State in a contest that always seems to bring fireworks, while Ohio State will travel to Penn State for the Buckeyes’ most important game to date. Ohio State has won five straight against the Nittany Lions and rolls into Happy Valley 7-0.
Oklahoma State looks to build off the momentum of a comeback win at home against Texas with an away game versus Kansas State, and out west, Oregon travels to Cal after a statement victory against UCLA in Eugene.
College football’s last weekend in October is here, and these are the biggest storylines this week.
No. 19 Kentucky at No. 3 Tennessee (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN app)
A few things have changed for Tennessee (actually a lot) since the Vols last faced Kentucky. Their 45-42 win over the No. 18-ranked Wildcats last season in Lexington snapped an 11-game losing streak against nationally ranked foes. Before that contest, which featured 1,073 yards of total offense, Tennessee’s last such victory came back in 2018 with a 24-7 win over No. 11 Kentucky.
That’s the way it’s been for the Wildcats in this series. They’ve lost 34 of the past 37 meetings, although Mark Stoops has two of those three wins in the past five years.
Stoops has built Kentucky’s program from the ground up with a pair of 10-win seasons in the past four years. Josh Heupel, in just his second season at Tennessee, has orchestrated an even more stunning turnaround. The Vols (7-0) are ranked No. 3 in the AP poll. They beat Alabama for the first time in 16 years. Tennessee leads the country in scoring offense (50.1 points per game) and is looking for its fifth win of the season over a ranked opponent.
For the first time in two decades, Tennessee is legitimately in the national championship conversation at a point in the season when the leaves are changing. A fifth win over a ranked team would match the number of coaches the Vols have had since Phillip Fulmer was fired in 2008.
These are dizzying times on Rocky Top indeed. But Heupel said his team is not about to get ahead of itself with a rested, healthier Kentucky team coming into Neyland Stadium on Saturday night.
“We’re still in the beginning stages of this journey, really the halfway point,” Heupel said. “For us, the preparation, being real with each other, competing every day is going to be critical. … So far, these guys have handled it the right way.”
In other words, any mention of the trip to No. 1 Georgia in two weeks is off-limits.
Kentucky (5-2) was off last week, which should ensure that quarterback Will Levis will be as healthy as he has been since suffering a turf toe injury against Ole Miss on Oct. 1 and missing the next game against South Carolina. Levis threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns last season against Tennessee. One of Kentucky’s chief problems this season has been protecting the quarterback. The Wildcats have allowed 26 sacks in seven games.
Levis will need to hit some big plays down the field against a Tennessee defense that is ranked 130th out of 131 teams in pass defense (329.7 yards per game). But the Vols have been stout against the run. They’re giving up just 90.8 yards per game on the ground, tied for eighth nationally. That’s where Chris Rodriguez Jr. comes in for Kentucky. He is a tough runner between the tackles, excellent after contact and can help shorten the game for the Wildcats if he is able to get it going against Tennessee’s D.
In Kentucky’s 27-17 win over Mississippi State two weeks ago, the 224-pound Rodriguez ran the ball 31 times for 197 yards and two touchdowns. — Chris Low
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 13 Penn State (Saturday, noon ET, Fox)
Before the season, an Ohio State schedule featuring Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Iowa — all before Nov. 1 — projected as one that could hold up against that of any national title contender. The way it turned out, the Buckeyes are still trying to peel off the ain’t-played-nobody label, despite their flat-out dominance.
Ohio State has won every game by double figures and the past six by an average of 38.7 points. Another convincing win at Beaver Stadium should enhance Ohio State’s profile heading into the first College Football Playoff rankings reveal, although thumping Penn State likely doesn’t carry the same value after what Michigan did to the Nittany Lions on Oct. 15.
“We know that we have to bring it every week,” Buckeyes coach Ryan Day said. “This is part of that competitive excellence, that competitive stamina. Going on the road and winning a game like this is going to be huge.”
Following the Michigan loss, Penn State responded well last week against Minnesota, and the Lions might match up better against the Buckeyes than the Wolverines, especially because of a talented secondary led by safety Ji’Ayir Brown and cornerback Joey Porter Jr. Michigan used Penn State’s aggressiveness on defense against the Lions, to the tune of 418 rushing yards, but Penn State D-coordinator Manny Diaz likely will keep the pressure on Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud if he can.
The Lions are looking for more sacks, collecting 15 through the first seven games.
“Obviously, we are challenging routes more in terms of the balls that are getting broken up, hopefully forcing the quarterback to hold onto the ball longer,” Penn State coach James Franklin said. “So in theory, we should be able to be more disruptive on the quarterback with sacks and pressures and things like that.”
Franklin has steadfastly supported his quarterback, senior Sean Clifford, who overcame an early interception against Minnesota to pass for 295 yards and four touchdowns, winning Big Ten offensive player of the week honors. Clifford played well in last year’s loss at Ohio State but received little help from Penn State’s offensive line and run game. The hope is that with improvement in both areas, combined with home-field advantage, Penn State can beat the Buckeyes for just the second time in State College since 2005.
Ohio State star wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (hamstring) is expected to play for a second straight game, but he could once again have a plays limit. Smith-Njigba has been limited to five receptions in three games, although teammates Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. have filled his production void with 1,333 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns.
The Buckeyes will look for more in the run game after Iowa limited them to 2.2 yards per carry with a long of 13 yards. — Adam Rittenberg
No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Kansas State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
The Cowboys will visit K-State for one of the biggest matchups of the Big 12 season thus far and what could shape up as an elimination game for a spot in the conference title game.
Both teams have already played the conference leader, TCU, and lost. According to ESPN Analytics, Oklahoma State has an 82% chance to reach the Big 12 title game with a win while Kansas State would have a 36% chance with a victory.
Kansas State coach Chris Klieman is 0-3 against Mike Gundy and the Cowboys since arriving in Manhattan, but Klieman is emphasizing to his team that it gets to play at home for the first time since Oct. 1 and still has a chance in the title race.
“Everything is still in front of us, but it’s all about our preparation, and this is the next opportunity,” Klieman said this week. “Now we’ve got five one-week seasons left.”
Klieman will likely be going into the game with starting quarterback Adrian Martinez as a game-time decision after an undisclosed injury in the first series sidelined him in a loss to TCU last week.
“I hope Adrian is available, but I don’t know if he’ll be available. And there’s other kids like that,” Klieman said. “We tried to manage our way through Deuce Vaughn being banged up, and he carried the ball not as many times as he typically does. We hope Deuce is healthier this week, but we’ll see.”
The Wildcats got a full dose of Cowboys quarterback Spencer Sanders last year when he threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another score in a 31-20 Oklahoma State win. But the Cowboys know they will have to stop the run against a tough K-State team that averages 232.1 rushing yards and hopes to keep Sanders — and an Oklahoma State offense that averages 44.7 points per game — off the field.
The Cowboys struggled early to stop the ground game last week against visiting Texas, allowing 161 rushing yards in the first half; but they tightened up in the second half, yielding just 43 yards while rallying for a 41-34 win.
“You know, unless you’re playing Mike Leach, you’ve got to stop the run, you got to run the ball effectively,” Gundy said. — Dave Wilson
Michigan State at No. 4 Michigan (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN app)
Michigan State handed Michigan its only regular-season loss last season in a 37-33 decision over the Wolverines. It didn’t prevent Michigan from making it to the conference championship game or the playoffs, but that loss has stuck with the Wolverines.
The teams are set to play Saturday night at Michigan Stadium in their annual rivalry game.
“Nobody’s watched the highlights of that game or the film of that game more than we have,” Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh said on the Inside Michigan Football radio show. “And also, this year’s tape. But you really want to just know them, you want to master what they’re doing so you can use it against them. And I’m sure they’re doing the same thing up the road, no question about it.”
Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker had five rushing touchdowns in last year’s victory, and the Spartans held Michigan without a rushing score. Walker is now in the NFL, and Michigan State has been trying to get its run game going, rushing for 106.1 yards per game, which is No. 116 of all FBS teams.
Michigan, on the other hand, is ranked No. 7 in rushing yards per game, and running back Blake Corum has had 666 yards on the ground in the past four games, which is the most for a Michigan running back since Mike Hart in 2004. Corum’s 13 rushing touchdowns are also the most through the team’s first seven games in program history.
That is going to make for a challenge for Michigan State to stop the Wolverines’ ground attack. Harbaugh said he expects it will be a physical game, as the team with the most rushing yards typically comes out on top, and it’s been marked on the calendar for both teams.
“We all know what this week is. It’s not just another game for us,” Michigan State coach Mel Tucker said. “Our players and staff and fans understand that.”
Tucker and the Spartans used their bye week to try to get healthy and get some players back. He noted that it’s going to take a concerted effort, whether it’s called circling the wagons, bunker mentality or “Us against the world,” to beat Michigan this weekend.
Tucker hasn’t lost to Harbaugh and Michigan over the past two seasons. And Harbaugh said that despite the Spartans having a 3-4 record, Michigan State will give the Wolverines its best.
“Old cliché, throw out the records, is very true,” Harbaugh said. “It doesn’t matter. Both sides just want it that much.” — Tom VanHaaren
Florida vs. No. 1 Georgia at TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Georgia and Florida are both coming off a bye week, but the Gators arguably needed the time to regroup a little more ahead of Saturday’s matchup.
It was one thing to lose at home to LSU on Oct. 15. But it was another thing to give up 45 points and 528 yards of offense in the process.
Florida coach Billy Napier doesn’t want to get technical or give away specifics of what’s driving his team’s defensive struggles. But he said, “I think we understand what the issues are.”
Chief among them, Napier explained, is a lack of consistency.
Defensive lineman Tyreak Sapp said the Gators are “just a few plays away.” And while that’s frustrating to be so close and yet so far away, Sapp acknowledged there’s hope in that sentiment, as well.
But digging deeper, you find a defense that desperately needs more from its front seven.
Florida is giving up the most yards per rush in the SEC East (4.47). And it is struggling to affect the quarterback with the conference’s lowest number of disrupted dropbacks at 31, a figure that includes sacks, interceptions, batted passes, passes defended and tipped passes.
Then there are the missed tackles. Florida has 67 of them. Georgia, meanwhile, has only 39.
To have any chance of pulling off the upset in Jacksonville, the Gators will need their defense to improve in a hurry, and Florida will need a big-time performance from quarterback Anthony Richardson.
Richardson has flashed first-round talent, but he also has battled consistency issues in the passing game, with six touchdowns and seven interceptions.
But Napier said he sees growth in Richardson’s understanding of the offensive system and diagnosing what the defense is doing.
“I think he’s still working hard on mastering what that process looks like Sunday to Saturday — the unwavering commitment to what’s required to play and win,” Napier said. “So that’s where he’s at. Seven games in and continues to get better.” — Alex Scarborough
Southern at Jackson State (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN app)
For all of the headlines Deion Sanders has created with his recruiting, he has done just as well on the field itself.
His Tigers will welcome “College GameDay” to town with an unbeaten status and a No. 5 FCS ranking by their name. They have won 14 straight SWAC games, and after rolling to an 11-2 record powered mostly by defense last season, they’ve been racking up major offensive numbers this time around. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders, the coach’s son, has taken his development up a few notches, completing 73% of his passes with a 23-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. And Jackson State is outscoring opponents by an average of 41-10. The Tigers did most of that without blue-chip freshman Travis Hunter too. He was injured in the first game of the season and didn’t return to action until last week.
If Southern maintains its recent form, however, this could be an intriguing game. The Jaguars fell to 1-2 after a shutout loss to Texas Southern on Sept. 17, but they have outscored their past four opponents by an average of 44-10. Sophomore dual-threat Besean McCray has completed 74% of his passes in that span and has rushed for over 70 yards four times this season. First-year coach Eric Dooley needed a few weeks, but he has the blue and gold rolling. Will that be enough against a superpowered Jackson State? We’ll see. — Bill Connelly
No. 8 Oregon at California (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
For a team that lost by 45 points to open the season, it’s a long road back to playoff relevance. That the Ducks are now ranked No. 8 in the AP poll — just past the halfway point of the regular season — represents a remarkable rise. Under first-year coach Dan Lanning, Oregon is the only team that is undefeated in Pac-12 play and heads to Berkeley, where things have started to fall apart for the Golden Bears under Justin Wilcox. The matchup provides a fascinating what-if storyline considering Oregon first pursued Wilcox before it was rebuffed, leading to Lanning.
It’s a strong year for quarterback play in the Pac-12, but Oregon’s Bo Nix is right there among the best. He ranks second in the conference in QBR, first in yards per dropback (8.7) and fourth in touchdown passes (17), and he has been sacked just once all season (the fewest among qualifying QBs in the country). Since the Georgia loss, Oregon has scored at least 41 points in each game and hasn’t been overly reliant on any of the playmakers around Nix. Despite its struggles, Cal’s defense has been good, having allowed no more than 28 points in any of the Bears’ four losses.
If Oregon really is going to make a push to be part of the playoff conversation, two key things must happen:
1. Georgia needs to keep rolling. If the Bulldogs are the clear No. 1 team in the country, it’s easier to forgive Oregon’s loss.
2. Style points. The Ducks can’t leave any doubt about how much they’ve improved, and close games against teams like Cal won’t make the necessary impression. They need to be dominant.
On the flip side, Cal’s paltry offensive production makes it fair to question how long coordinator Bill Musgrave will be for the job. The Bears have averaged just 14.3 points over the past three games, which just won’t get it done. — Kyle Bonagura
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MLB September predictions: From best record to playoff races and more
Published
9 hours agoon
September 4, 2025By
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Welcome to September! Five months into Major League Baseball’s 2025 season, a number of things seem to be settled — from a few divisions to some award races — but plenty of intrigue remains entering the homestretch.
Which of the current contenders will reach the playoffs? How will the closer division races play out? Which teams will secure first-round byes? And how many games will the Colorado Rockies lose?!
To discuss what the final month of the regular season might bring, we asked 16 ESPN baseball experts some of the game’s biggest questions, covering September and beyond, and to explain their answers. We also asked them to make bold predictions about what will happen over the final stretch.
Let’s get into it.
Which team will finish with the best record in baseball?
Milwaukee Brewers: 14
Detroit Tigers: 1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 1
What makes the Brewers the favorite to secure the majors’ best record? Besides the buffer the Brewers have built as we enter the final month of the regular season, there’s just nothing to suggest a falloff. They are on track to win about 100 games and their run differential supports that pace. The remaining schedule is friendly. And Milwaukee’s production has come from every position and category. It’s just a really complete team. — Bradford Doolittle
How many of the current 12 teams projected for the playoffs will be in the postseason field?
All 12: 15
11: 1
You have the Royals ousting the Mariners from the playoff field. Why do you think that will happen? The Kansas City Royals will make the playoffs. Crazy? Not so. They’ve played great in July and August. Vinnie Pasquantino is mashing home runs, Bobby Witt Jr. is red hot and the players they added at the trade deadline have chipped in to make this a good offense. The Royals also have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. But which team can they catch?
It might hinge on a three-game series at home against Seattle in mid-September. The Mariners have a recent history of falling just short of the postseason — including last year, when the Royals clinched a wild-card spot with 86 wins and the Mariners won 85 (the Mariners blew an 8-0 lead against Kansas City in June, which loomed large at the end of the season). Seattle has struggled on the road, so the aforementioned series can catapult the Royals back into the postseason. — David Schoenfield
Who will be the No. 1 seed in the AL: Toronto or Detroit?
Detroit Tigers: 14
Toronto Blue Jays: 2
The Tigers were the overwhelming choice. Why did you take them? For me, this was mostly a schedule play. The top seed, based on the standings, is likely to be the Tigers or the Blue Jays, with the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners all within plausible striking distance. Toronto doesn’t have an easy series left. Detroit’s schedule isn’t nearly as rigorous. In a race this close, with teams this close in talent and production, little things like schedule luck often determine the outcome. — Jeff Passan
You were one of two voters to pick the Blue Jays. Why do you think they top Detroit? The Tigers are a wonderful story, but not so much since the All-Star break, as they have played .500 ball, struggled to score runs and their ERA is among the bottom 10 in baseball. The Blue Jays are peaking at the right time, scoring plenty of runs, and Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber make the rotation formidable. Frankly, all three AL East contenders are better than the current Tigers, and it should show in the final standings. — Eric Karabell
Assuming the Brewers get one, who will get the second bye in the NL?
Los Angeles Dodgers: 9
Philadelphia Phillies: 5
San Diego Padres: 2
Despite dealing with star players slumping and a mountain of injuries this season, the Dodgers are still the slight favorites for the No. 2 seed in a stacked NL. Explain why. Because those are the very reasons why the Dodgers firmly believe their best baseball is still ahead of them. Their bullpen will soon be as close to whole as it has been all season. The same can be said about the lineup. The rotation already is, and the four-man group they’ll put together in October will be scary if the starters remain healthy.
That’s a big “if,” considering the pitching ailments that have plagued them the last couple years. But at the end of the day, the Dodgers possess the most depth and talent in the sport. They feel as if they’re on the verge of truly showcasing it. — Alden Gonzalez
The Phillies also received a fair number of votes. What makes them your pick? The Phillies seem to be flying under the radar for a team that has spent most of the season on a 95-win pace. Maybe it’s the Zack Wheeler injury, maybe it’s their struggles against the New York Mets — or maybe it’s just that this is about what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from Philly over the past few seasons.
But there is plenty to like here over the final month and into October as well. Even without Wheeler, the Phillies have the best Game 1 starter of any NL contender in Cristopher Sanchez. Kyle Schwarber has a real shot at Ryan Howard’s franchise home run record (58). They acquired the best reliever to move at the deadline in Jhoan Duran and filled their biggest hole by trading for outfielder Harrison Bader. Oh, and they currently hold that second spot in the NL — with a 1 1/2 game cushion over the Dodgers. — Dan Mullen
Will the Dodgers or Padres win the NL West?
Los Angeles Dodgers: 13
San Diego Padres: 3
The Dodgers were our voters’ overwhelming favorite to win the division. Why — and how — do you think San Diego can overtake L.A.? More than any other team, I think the Dodgers look at their seasons from 30,000 feet, rather than succumbing to the concerns of the moment. They demonstrate this every year with their handling of pitching injuries — they essentially rest veteran starters through long stretches of the season, rather than push them in May and June, in order to do what they can to ensure that the players will be relatively fresh in October. This is why we’ve seen such a deliberate ramp-up with Shohei Ohtani.
That’s why I think the Padres will wind up winning the division. They bolstered their bullpen with Mason Miller at the trade deadline, and since then, it feels like they’ve been playing a series of Game 7s. And, let’s face it, San Diego is all-in in trying to win right now, with its top-heavy roster and the likes of Dylan Cease and Michael King headed for free agency in the fall. The Dodgers, on the other hand, won’t go to the whip in September in the same way. No matter how their own division plays out, they’ll make the playoffs and have a shot to repeat as World Series winners, while it feels as if San Diego is going to go all-out down the stretch to win the NL West.
Different pressures, different styles, different context. — Buster Olney
Who will win the AL West?
Houston Astros: 8
Seattle Mariners: 8
Make the case for the Astros: Picking Houston to win the West isn’t going out on much of a limb: They’re currently in first place, just got slugger Yordan Alvarez back from injury and simply have more pedigree than Seattle. The Mariners have a slightly easier schedule the rest of the way but their road woes are for real — and will likely prevent them from going on an extended run. Picking against the Astros would be the headline-scratching move. They’re the division champ once again. — Jesse Rogers
Make the case for the Mariners: The Mariners aren’t playing their best baseball, but they are healthy and within striking distance of the Astros for the division entering September. Their starting rotation is elite. The bullpen and offense should be better. Meanwhile, the Astros have recently gotten Yordan Alvarez back from injury, but they’re without Josh Hader and Isaac Paredes, among others. The division could come down to the three-game series between the two rivals in late September. — Jorge Castillo
How many games will the Rockies lose?
119: 1
118: 3
117: 1
116: 3
115: 3
114: 3
113: 1
112: 1
We got quite the breadth of answers to this question, but you were one of three to say 118 losses — our second-highest loss total. Why is that your prediction? The Rockies aren’t far removed from being on a modern record-setting pace for losses, and they’ve been especially awful against the current 12 teams in the playoff field: 9-50 (.153). They play 13 of their final 24 against that group, at a time when they’re increasingly leaning on younger and less experienced players. Their September isn’t going to be pretty. — Tristan Cockcroft
Make one bold prediction about the final stretch
Tim Kurkjian: Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh will finish the season with 60 home runs.
Matt Marrone: With most of the playoff field set — other than last-minute jockeying for seeds — all eyes will be on the Mariners over the final days of the season, as Raleigh sets a new AL home run record.
Kiley McDaniel: Between hitting and pitching, Shohei Ohtani catches Raleigh in total WAR.
Passan: Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz will finish in the top five of AL MVP voting.
Karabell: The Phillies call up top pitching prospect Andrew Painter on Sept. 7 and he goes 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA.
Mullen: Nolan McLean will be the NL’s best pitcher not named Paul Skenes over the final month and take the mound in October — as the Mets’ Game 1 playoff starter.
Paul Hembekides: Boston’s Garrett Crochet will overtake Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and win the AL Cy Young Award.
Schoenfield: The Red Sox will catch the Blue Jays and win the AL East.
Gonzalez: Actually, the Yankees will win the AL East.
Cockcroft: Not only do the Yankees overtake Toronto for the division title, but they also grab a first-round bye, even if they can’t quite catch the Tigers for the No. 1 seed.
Olney: The Yankees have such a soft schedule in the final weeks that they wind up with the second-best record in the AL … but because Toronto holds on to win the division, New York is the No. 4 seed and faces Boston in the wild-card round.
Tim Keown: The Padres, with the easiest remaining schedule in baseball, will go 7-0 against the Colorado Rockies in September to win the NL West and take the second first-round bye spot.
Castillo: The Mets will overtake the Phillies and win the NL East.
Doolittle: If we started the playoffs tomorrow, the bracket would look exactly the same as it will after we’ve played out the season.
Voters: Dan Mullen, Liz Finny, Paul Hembekides, Jeff Passan, Eric Karabell, Alden Gonzalez, David Schoenfield, Tim Kurkjian, Kiley McDaniel, Tim Keown, Jorge Castillo, Matt Marrone, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Tristan Cockcroft, Buster Olney
Sports
MLB trade deadline winners and losers — a month later
Published
9 hours agoon
September 4, 2025By
admin
-
Bradford DoolittleSep 3, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
The last Stock Watch of the regular season is here. Before the next one, we’ll know who the 2025 World Series champion is, and will be knee-deep in another Hot Stove season.
With the Milwaukee Brewers topping the watch for the second month in a row, let’s use that surprising fact to make a couple of observations about this year’s competition:
• Payroll matters but it’s still no excuse. The likely playoff bracket looks loaded with big markets and big spenders, but teams like the Brewers and Kansas City Royals kind of take away the excuses of everyone who bemoans baseball’s economic disparity. Not that we shouldn’t seek to even the field, but in the meantime, teams should still be trying to win.
• There’s a solid chance we might see a champion we’ve never seen before. There are just five remaining teams with a goose egg in the World Series championship column. One of them is the Brewers, whose odds for ending that drought are the highest in baseball. Two others are the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners, both likely playoff teams. Taken together, these three clubs have around a 28% shot at this year’s title. In other words, there’s better than a 1-in-4 chance that some long-suffering fan base will get to have a parade in a couple of months.
With the MLB trade deadline more than a month old, let’s take a look at the most recent fortunes of all 30 teams, with an eye on how their moves (or non-moves) have worked (or not worked) so far.
Win average: 98.7 (Last: 95.9, 1st)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.2%)
Champions: 18.3% (Last:11.3%)
Deadline aftermath: Milwaukee was quiet at the deadline and hasn’t gotten much from its additions. Backup catcher Danny Jansen hasn’t hit since arriving, while reliever Shelby Miller has been so-so in a mid-leverage role. Yet Milwaukee has baseball’s best record and run differential since deadline day. Sometimes you don’t mess with a good thing. Should the injury to closer Trevor Megill linger, you might argue Milwaukee should have been more aggressive in pursuit of a back-end reliever. First, we ought to wait for the Brewers’ bullpen to actually struggle, because Milwaukee always has an answer when it comes to filling roster holes.
Win average: 93.8 (Last: 92.7, 5th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 96.8%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 7.8%)
Deadline aftermath: Dave Dombrowski went with quality over quantity at the deadline and it has paid off. Harrison Bader has mashed while playing mostly every day in center field. Jhoan Duran hasn’t been perfect, but he has been everything the Phillies could have hoped for, while changing the dynamic of the bullpen, now and looking ahead to October. It took Duran a month to move into a tie for the Phillies’ saves lead, a period during which he didn’t allow a walk or a homer. The additions continue even after the stinging loss of Zack Wheeler. Conceding nothing, Dombrowski also signed Walker Buehler on Sunday after Buehler was released by the Red Sox.
Win average: 93.3 (Last: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 99.4%)
Champions: 7.2% (Last: 13.6%)
Deadline aftermath: Chicago’s quiet deadline rankled pundits, and the reaction hasn’t softened given the struggles of the few additions the Cubs did make, and the ongoing distance between them and the Brewers in the National League Central. The Cubs might want to stop trading for infielders at the deadline. Last year, they picked up Isaac Paredes, who flailed as a Cub, then moved on and went back to his typical self this year with the Astros. This time, Willi Castro has gone from an above-average hitter with Minnesota to borderline unplayable with the Cubs, at least at the dish, as part of Chicago’s overall offensive slide.
Win average: 92.9 (Last: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 99.4%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 15.4%)
Deadline aftermath: Los Angeles’ deadline approach was more similar to a team straddling the add/subtract fence than what the Dodgers actually are: a talent-laden, mega-rich defending champ angling for a repeat. Alex Call has helped as an extra outfielder who plays against lefties, but reliever Brock Stewart has struggled. Mostly the Dodgers have leaned on improved pitching health over the past month. Their revived hurlers have kept the Dodgers in the elite tier. Over the remainder of the season, if L.A. can match its first-half hitting with its second-half pitching, the Dodgers will hit the postseason as the behemoth we always thought they were.
Win average: 92.9 (Last: 93.3, 4th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.2%)
Champions: 11.3% (Last: 11.3%)
Deadline aftermath: The Tigers went heavy on pitching at the deadline with a particular focus on positive regression candidates. It has worked for the bullpen, where Kyle Finnegan in particular has looked like a different pitcher than he was for Washington. The returns on starters Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack have been mixed. Detroit has played middling ball over the past month, largely due to an offense that has fallen off a bit and went unaddressed in the trade market. The Tigers are fine in the American League Central race, but find themselves in a tight battle for a No. 1 seed with Toronto.
Win average: 91.7 (Last: 90.7, 6th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 92.9%)
Champions: 7.7% (Last: 5.3%)
Deadline aftermath: A leaky bullpen has kept the Blue Jays from keeping their AL East rivals at bay, and, as we enter the final month, Toronto could end up with a No. 1 seed or could be a road team in the wild-card round. The deadline impact has been mixed. Shane Bieber looks like Shane Bieber, an undeniable boost. But on a relief staff that features a closer (Jeff Hoffman) with 29 saves and a below-replacement bWAR, the additions of Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland have yet to pay off. If Toronto’s bullpen picks up the pace, this is a complete team.
Win average: 90.6 (Last: 90.2, 7th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 89.0%)
Champions: 4.0% (Last: 4.5%)
Deadline aftermath: The Padres overtook the Dodgers a couple of times in August, only to slip back behind their nemesis. A.J. Preller’s deadline haul has accomplished its primary objective, which was to shore up roster holes and raise San Diego’s floor. The exception to that description — the addition of Mason Miller to an already strong bullpen — looks very much like a ceiling raiser. The only quibble might be in the rotation, where those the Padres dealt (Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek) have together outpitched those Preller acquired (Nestor Cortes, JP Sears). But Freddy Fermin, acquired for Bergert and Kolek, stabilized the catcher position.
Win average: 90.5 (Last: 88.8, 11th)
In the playoffs: 98.9% (Last: 87.2%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 8.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Yankees’ trajectory changed sharply over the second half of August, a month they exited as one of baseball’s hottest teams. Behind a reinvigorated offense and a steady rotation, New York is back in contention for the AL East crown, a No. 1 seed, the whole pinstriped ball of wax. But the deadline-infused bullpen needs to pull it together consistently, or Yankees fans will enter October in an even more heightened state of anxiety than usual. If not for the solid work done so far by ex-Pirate David Bednar, New York’s work bolstering the relief group might look even worse.
Win average: 89.7 (Last: 88.9, 10th)
In the playoffs: 97.9% (Last: 87.6%)
Champions: 6.7% (Last: 5.5%)
Deadline aftermath: Boston’s pitching staff additions of Steven Matz and Dustin May didn’t exactly scream “‘all-in!” for a team that by the end of July had positioned itself for a playoff run. May and earlier in-season addition Jordan Hicks haven’t had an impact, but Matz has been lights out in a surging bullpen. Boston continues to play well, and the promotion of rotation prospect Payton Tolle is a jolt of energy for that unit. The Red Sox needed a power bat, but those were in short supply. The bottom line is that Boston hasn’t lost any ground since we last convened.
Win average: 88.1 (Last: 89.5, 9th)
In the playoffs: 85.3% (Last: 88.0%)
Champions: 3.6% (Last: 6.1%)
Deadline aftermath: Whatever you thought about Houston’s attempt to bolster its offense at the deadline with the additions of Carlos Correa, Jesus Sanchez and Ramon Urias, it hasn’t had the desired effect. Houston had a losing August (13-15) while ranking 26th in net runs per game. Only the Guardians scored fewer runs. Each member of the incoming trio has performed close to projection, so you can’t blame them, and it’s likely that without them, things would be worse. Still, the Astros enter the stretch run in a more precarious position than they’ve been in a long time.
Win average: 86.7 (Last: 90.1, 8th)
In the playoffs: 88.2% (Last: 89.4%)
Champions: 5.2% (Last: 4.5%)
Deadline aftermath: The Mets enter September with one of baseball’s hottest offenses. They also have one of MLB’s coldest pitching staffs. Thus, we’ve seen many games like New York’s 10-8 win over Detroit on Labor Day. The Mets got five quality starts in August. That isn’t great, but if the bullpen is rolling … well, it’s not. The relievers went 2-for-7 in save opportunities. Deadline pickups Gregory Soto and Tyler Rogers have been fine, but the splash was supposed to come from Ryan Helsley, whose August ERA (9.31) was more like a belly flop. There’s a month to get this right before the playoffs.
Win average: 86.5 (Last: 86.8, 12th)
In the playoffs: 74.1% (Last: 70.4%)
Champions: 2.6% (Last: 3.4%)
Deadline aftermath: The process — acquiring Arizona’s corner infield of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez — was deservedly lauded. The early results are mixed. At first base, Seattle’s OPS before Naylor’s Mariners debut was 0.708, mostly Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano. Since then, it’s 0.761. Good! At third base, the OPS was 0.664 before Suarez. It’s 0.659 since. Meh! Seattle has treaded water since the deadline splash, ranking 18th in runs, despite a huge month from Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh‘s homer-fest. The Mariners need their big guns to get hot at the same time, because nothing, not even a playoff slot, is assured.
Win average: 83.6 (Last: 84.1, 13th)
In the playoffs: 28.7% (Last: 43.2%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 2.1%)
Deadline aftermath: Despite lackluster offense, Texas targeted pitching before the deadline, coming away with relievers Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton. The big prize was starter Merrill Kelly, who seemed like a luxury addition until the injury to Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers have leaned on Kelly and he has responded. That hasn’t been the case for the relievers, and for most of August, the Texas bullpen prevented the club from really catching fire. Texas heated up lately, but now faces most if not all of September without Eovaldi, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Manager Bruce Bochy will need to be in Hall of Fame form.
Win average: 82.5 (Last: 80.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 11.3% (Last: 12.5%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.1%)
Deadline aftermath: The Royals continue to undermine excuses from less aggressive clubs in baseball’s lower economic tiers. The threshold isn’t that high. Just try. Kansas City’s offense for most of the season was a hodgepodge of negative regression performers down from 2024, and glaring, gaping holes. The Royals, seven games under .500 near the end of June, added anyway, raising their floor with the likes of Adam Frazier, Randal Grichuk and Mike Yastrzemski. They also bolstered an injury-plagued rotation with Bergert and Kolek. End result: The Royals have plenty to play for during the stretch run. A playoff return remains in play.
Win average: 81.6 (Last: 82.3, 14th)
In the playoffs: 6.8% (Last: 12.3%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.4%)
Deadline aftermath: The Reds’ acquisition of starter Zack Littell struck me as odd and, frankly, it still does. He has been pretty good. But Cincinnati has plenty of “pretty good” when it comes to the rotation. The Reds have candidates for much better than that behind the pretty good. Anyway, the pickups for the lineup have been chef’s kiss good. Miguel Andujar has hit like peak-level Miguel Cabrera. Ke’Bryan Hayes has flashed his elite defense and paired it with a level of offense that adds up to a really good player. If the Reds don’t make the playoffs, it won’t be because of deadline deficiencies.
Win average: 81.6 (Last: 81.8, 15th)
In the playoffs: 4.8% (Last: 9.4%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.2%)
Deadline aftermath: The Giants went into soft unload mode around the deadline. They weren’t playing well, and while their probabilities made the playoffs possible, the trajectory wasn’t good. A month later, the Giants’ position hasn’t changed — they’re still a fringe playoff candidate — but some of their pickups have already contributed. Jose Butto has been very good out of the bullpen, and Drew Gilbert, while swinging at everything, has flashed some pop and is getting acclimated to the majors. The Giants are offering a glimpse of what they’ll be next season, and have given their fans reasons to watch the stretch run with interest.
Win average: 80.8 (Last: 80.3, 17th)
In the playoffs: 3.6% (Last: 10.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)
Deadline aftermath: Once again, the Rays’ deadline was about setting themselves up for the next season while not totally raising the white flag on the current one. As you can see from the unchanged win projection, things have chugged along on the same track, though staying the course has come with dwindling playoff odds. The new catchers — Hunter Feduccia and Nick Fortes — have together hit less than a pre-universal-DH pitcher. But the various departures have created openings for Feduccia, Carson Williams and Everson Pereira, and that’s the general idea. A miracle wild-card berth is not, as yet, totally out of the question.
Win average: 79.4 (Last: 79.3, 19th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 6.5%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Deadline aftermath: Having Bieber around for Cleveland’s long shot postseason bid would be nice, but the judgment on the deal with Toronto is years off and pending the development of prospect Khal Stephen. Besides, Cleveland’s problem isn’t pitching. Despite finishing .500 in August, the Guardians enjoyed a clean sweep in the major hitting categories, finishing last in runs, average, OBP and slugging. Between the putrid attack and the losses of pitchers Luis L. Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase to indefinite leave, it’s amazing that Cleveland’s hopes remain slightly alive. That’s the beauty of this year’s AL. It’s hard to play yourself out of contention.
Win average: 78.9 (Last: 77.3, 21st)
In the playoffs: 0.5% (Last: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: You can argue whether the Twins or the Diamondbacks traded more right-now value at the deadline but it’s one of the two. For Arizona, the losses of Kelly, Naylor, Suarez, Miller and Grichuk have … helped? It’s hard to claim that Arizona has played better because of those departures, but the Snakes have played better. The Diamondbacks went 17-12 in August and were in the top 10 in both run scoring and run prevention. Suarez replacement Blaze Alexander has taken off on offense, while on the pitching side, the bullpen has gotten hot thanks to the work of off-the-radar types.
Win average: 78.1 (Last: 79.4, 18th)
In the playoffs: 0.4% (Last: 2.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Deadline aftermath: The Cardinals followed a standard route last month, dealing free agents-to-be and forgoing short-term additions. The approach adheres to St. Louis’ plan to treat the 2025 season as a minor nuisance, no matter if the team on the field clings to fringe contention. The losses of those dealt, even closer Helsley, given how he has performed in New York, haven’t had any effect on the short-term performance. The Cardinals continue to plug along in the middle as they were, waiting for next season. In some ways, it might have been easier for their fans if the Cardinals had just politely bottomed out.
Win average: 75.8 (Last: 78.1, 20th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Marlins played it casual at the deadline rather than kicking the can down the road by dealing Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, for now anyway. So the rest of the season is about getting better and creating opportunity for young players like outfielder Jakob Marsee, who put up a huge August in the relative vacuum of a standard Marlins season. Unfortunately, one of the aspirants won’t be deadline pickup Ryan Gusto, who was torched over three Marlins starts before going down with a shoulder impingement. Hopefully in September we’ll see more prospects like Victor Mesa Jr. and Andrew Pintar.
Win average: 75.4 (Last: 76.0, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Angels’ soft add around the deadline has actually worked, to a degree, in that bullpen additions Andrew Chafin and Luis Garcia have been airtight. Thus a bottom-five bullpen has been middle of the pack since the end of July. But a 6.35 rotation ERA and an 0.665 OPS by the offense in August have rendered that development moot. The early returns on ex-Yankee Oswald Peraza haven’t been good, as not only has he struggled to keep his OPS over 0.500, but he gave up eight runs on the mound during a mop-up appearance. The Angels’ season appears headed nowhere.
Win average: 74.2 (Last: 69.5, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The A’s went 3-24 between May 6 and June 4, a month that sunk what looked like a possible wild-card candidacy. You don’t get to erase bad months from the record, but it’s worth considering that outside of that plunge, the Athletics are 10 games over .500. The splash at the deadline — trading Miller and getting elite prospect Leo De Vries in return — was a long-term play. Despite the short-term hit, the A’s had the fifth-best net runs per game figure in the majors during August and their relievers posted the best ERA in baseball. The Athletics are getting good.
Win average: 74.1 (Last: 72.4, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Braves had a winning month after the deadline, but it did little to mitigate a titanically disappointing season in Cobb County. The injuries have continued, as have some pretty crucial underperformances, like that of starter Spencer Strider. Michael Harris II has been hot as a firecracker since the break, which has been encouraging, but this season has mostly been one of Atlanta becoming a frequent stop on the DFA merry-go-round. The only note you might offer about the deadline is that pending free agents Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna should have been moved. It’s been a rough season.
Win average: 73.8 (Last: 76.1, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.3%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: Unsurprisingly, the Twins have floundered since their aggressive offloading approach to the deadline. With this season lost, Minnesota’s short-term focus is on the young players it picked up during the flurry of activity. The initial results for James Outman, Alan Roden, Mick Abel and Taj Bradley have been subpar across the board, but it’s early days and that list just represents those who have reached the majors. In any event, when you look at the exploits of ex-Twins like Harrison Bader, Jhoan Duran and Carlos Correa on their new teams, you can’t say Minnesota hasn’t impacted the pennant races.
Win average: 72.3 (Last: 72.3, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Orioles turned the page on a disappointing season at the deadline and added depth to their system in the process. The on-field results haven’t improved since the reshuffling, though the rotation had a nice run of outings. It’s all about next season. The Orioles’ August was a mixed bag in that regard. On the downside, Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser struggled last month. Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers reached the majors, with Beavers in particular getting off to a good start. The Orioles won’t return to the postseason, but they can enter the offseason with positive momentum.
Win average: 71.6 (Last: 69.9, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: With the Pirates’ focus, as ever, on the distant horizon, the remainder of Pittsburgh’s post-deadline roster has stayed competitive. The rotation remains the unit to watch, and August was not without interest for that group. Paul Skenes continues to build a Cy Young case, but for once, he’s not the biggest reason for excitement. That would be Bubba Chandler, technically a reliever for now, who has looked terrific over a pair of bulk outings. After eight scoreless frames to start his career, Chandler has a lifetime ERA even better than Skenes’. Hey, in Pittsburgh you get your kicks where you can.
Win average: 64.5 (Last: 64.5, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Nationals’ never-ending rebuild feels stalled, perhaps even more so after another deadline of dealing veteran talent. Whether or not Washington got fair return in its deals is almost beside the point. When will it end? If the young foundational players were picking up momentum, it might feel different. But CJ Abrams, James Wood, Dylan Crews and Brady House are among those who have lagged since the All-Star break. If ever there was a franchise in need of a spark, it’s this one right now. The offense has been brutal, but the pitching, especially the rotation, has been even worse. Sigh.
Win average: 59.6 (Last: 62.1, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The White Sox were playing pretty well at the time of the deadline, but the month since has not been kind. Still, the record is neither here nor there, it’s more about individual performances right now. And through that prism, there is plenty to like about Chicago’s direction. Kyle Teel has been a well-rounded force at the plate. Colson Montgomery has displayed explosive power. There’s more, but you get the idea. The downer is the possible season-ending injury to Luis Robert Jr., whose combined slash over the past two seasons is .223/.288/.372. Maybe this is just what he is now.
Win average: 45.9 (Last: 44.3, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: Colorado continues to lose games at a prodigious pace, but it’s a less frantic pace than earlier this season. Progress? Maybe not. During August, the Colorado rotation posted an ERA of 6.54 and allowed a .309/.381/.514 slash line. Before you start adjusting the rotation numbers for Coors Field, don’t bother. Those were the road numbers. The overall numbers can’t be published without a parental warning. One quest remains: Hunter Goodman‘s 2.7 bWAR places him third in Colorado history among primary catchers. The record is Chris Iannetta’s 3.2 in 2008. Setting any kind of positive record amid this mess would be something.
Sports
D-backs staying put; $500M renovation gets OK
Published
9 hours agoon
September 4, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Sep 3, 2025, 06:09 PM ET
PHOENIX — The Arizona Diamondbacks will remain at Chase Field for the next 30 years after Gov. Katie Hobbs signed a bill appropriating $500 million for renovations.
Hobbs signed House Bill 2704 atop the Diamondbacks’ dugout as players warmed up for Wednesday’s game against the Texas Rangers. Diamondbacks President and CEO Derrick Hall and bill sponsor Rep. Jeff Weninger joined Hobbs for the ceremony.
“Throughout all of the unforgettable moments and the history made here, Chase Field has largely gone unchanged, never once undergoing major renovation,” Hobbs told reporters from near the dugout. “Fans have routinely shown up for this city, this state, and it’s time we show up for them.”
The bill will recapture sales taxes from the stadium and other adjacent buildings over the next 30 years and reinvest them into infrastructure at the retractable-roof structure, home of the Diamondbacks since they joined MLB as an expansion franchise in 1998. Chase Field is owned by the Maricopa County Stadium District.
The Arizona House of Representatives approved the bill in June.
“We’ve been looking for a solution for easily over seven years, a long-term solution here for Chase Field to find a way to fund all the necessary renovations and maintenance, and we’re now there,” Hall said. “It was a way to bring in that steady flow, along with our money, the team money. We’ve already put over $200 million into this facility. We’re committed to putting in at least another $250 million.”
Hall has said the stadium needs several upgrades, most notably to its air conditioning system, which is critical during Phoenix’s brutally hot summer months.
The team’s current lease with the county expires in 2027.
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