Europe’s ‘not out of the woods’ despite gas prices falling to 4-month lows
The latest data shows that the EU’s overall storage levels are at an average of nearly 94% full.
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European gas prices may have dropped to levels not seen in more than four months, but this is far from being the end of the energy crisis, four industry analysts told CNBC.
The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) is Europe’s main benchmark for natural gas prices. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent pressures on Europe’s energy mix have pushed natural gas prices to trade at historic levels back in August — above 340 euros per megawatt hour. However, these have significantly come down since then, ending Thursday’s session at 108.5 euros per megawatt hour.
In addition, intraday European gas prices even went negative at the start of the week — meaning that holders of natural gas paid buyers to take the cargo off their hands.
“With gas storage near full, LNG inflows in oversupply and favourable mild autumn weather, prices are doing the work to keep the system balanced as commodities trade in the present,” Ehsan Khoman, head of commodities research at MUFG Bank, told CNBC via email.
The latest data compiled by industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe shows that the EU’s overall storage levels are at an average of nearly 94% full. That’s comfortably above the 80% target the bloc had set for countries to reach by the start of November.
Some of the LNG (liquefied natural gas) orders made during the summer are arriving now, when storage is full, representing an oversupply. Temperatures in the region have also been unusually warm, with some nations currently experiencing 20 degree Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit) heat.
Nikoline Bromander, analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy, said high output from wind power and political agreement within the EU on cooperative measures to reduce gas prices and consumption have contributed to lowering gas prices.
But Europe’s energy crisis isn’t over, and analysts are warning European policymakers against complacency.
Europe ‘not out of the woods’
“The temptation in Europe will be to take a sigh of relief and acknowledge the hard work and tough decisions on demand and supply that have been taken,” Bromander said in a research note.
“However, a series of factors – from Asian demand for LNG potentially increasing to a lack of sufficient regasification facilities in Europe means that decision makers may feel the pressure sooner rather than later.”
One of the big question marks is what will happen to LNG demand when China fully reopens its economy. Beijing has been the biggest buyer of LNG in the world, but its zero-Covid policy has prevented its economy from operating at full capacity. If this dynamic changes in the coming months, there will be more competition for the commodity and prices could spike.
Even if this winter ends up being mild, next winter also remains a supply concern.
Tom Marzec-Manser
head of gas analytics at ICIS
Henning Gloystein, director for energy at consultancy firm Eurasia Group, told CNBC that “the current glut shouldn’t be seen as a signal though that the upcoming winter might not see energy shortages.”
“Given there’s virtually no Russian gas available in Europe, supply is tight. Once it gets cold, inventories will draw down. If there’s a late winter cold snap when stocks have been reduced, thigs could get pretty tight in early 2023, meaning possible price spikes and potential energy shortages,” Henning said, adding that “it’s therefore still very important for industry and households to try to reduce consumption.”
Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at energy consultancy ICIS, reaffirmed the point that that weak gas prices in recent days should not be interpreted as a sign that Europe is now out of the woods when it comes to managing the lost flows from Russia.
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU was obtaining about 40% of all its natural gas from Moscow. That has now fallen below 10%.
“Forward pricing indicates that high prices will soon return: ICIS data shows gas for delivery in January is more than four times the price of spot gas at the TTF,” Marzec-Manser told CNBC via email.
Europe has in recent months endured a sharp drop in gas exports from Russia, traditionally its largest energy supplier.
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“Even if this winter ends up being mild, next winter also remains a supply concern as refilling storages through the summer of 2023 will be much harder than summer just gone, with little-to-no Russian gas available,” he added.
Several experts have warned that Europe’s high storage levels were to a large extent achieved with Russian gas. Even Xavier Bettel, the prime minister of Luxembourg, an EU nation, acknowledged earlier this month that storage was full with Russian gas. However, Russia supplies have been severely disrupted and it is Europe’s aim to be completely free from Russian fossil fuels.
Furthermore, there’s also the risk that European demand picks up in the coming months.
“The risk with the sell-off in the European gas market is the potential that demand starts to pick-up,” Khoman from MUFG Bank said, citing reports that fertilizer producers in Europe are easing curtailments.
“If this is part of a broader trend that we see in European demand, it would make it increasingly difficult for Europe to rebuild storage to comfortable levels ahead of next winter,” he added, projecting gas prices to average 200 euros per megawatt hour in the second quarter of 2023 and until the end of next year.
The CEO of EDP, Portugal’s utilities firm, summed it up when speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Friday. “Certainly we are in a much better place than we were a couple of months ago,” Miguel Stilwell d’Andrade said, but “we should expect a lot of volatility going forward.”
EQORE, a distributed battery storage startup based in Somerville, Massachusetts, has raised $1.7 million in seed funding to help industrial buildings tackle rising electricity costs. The round was oversubscribed and includes backing from the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center (MassCEC), Henry Ford III of Ford Motor Company, and Jonathan Kraft of The Kraft Group.
The timing couldn’t be more relevant. Data centers are booming, and that demand is slamming an already stressed grid. Big, utility-scale batteries help at the grid level, but they can’t fix the bottlenecks happening on local distribution networks. That’s where onsite storage steps in — storing energy when demand is low and discharging it when demand spikes, which helps stabilize costs for both the grid and the businesses using it.
MassCEC’s head of investments, Susan Stewart, said, “What excites us the most about EQORE’s technology is the dual impact: grid support and customer savings.” She noted that commercial and industrial buildings are ideal hosts for battery storage, but haven’t gotten much attention until now. “EQORE is closing that gap.”
Investor Randolph Mann highlighted what makes the company stand out: “By uniting advanced controls with high‑resolution metering and true end‑to‑end service, EQORE finally makes commercial behind-the-meter storage effortless and financially compelling for businesses.”
EQORE comes out of MIT’s Sandbox program and delta v accelerator and is currently part of the Harvard Climate Entrepreneurs Circle incubator. CEO and cofounder Valeriia Tyshchenko, a third‑generation engineer from Ukraine and MIT graduate, said the new funding will help the company scale alongside its existing revenue.
With the seed round closed, EQORE plans to grow its team and ramp up battery deployments at energy-intensive manufacturing facilities. The company doesn’t just install batteries; it operates them. Its autonomous software shifts when a facility uses power based on market conditions and utility incentives, reshaping load in real-time without disrupting operations.
Read more: Battery boom: 5.6 GW of US energy storage added in Q2
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Hyundai took the sheets of its new off-road electric SUV, the Crater Concept, at the LA Auto Show. Here’s our first look at the compact off-roader.
Meet Hyundai’s new off-road SUV, the Crater Concept
We knew it was coming after Hyundai teased the off-road SUV earlier this week, hidden under a drape. Hyundai took the sheets off the Crater Concept at the LA Auto Show on Thursday, giving us our first real look at the rugged off-roader.
Hyundai refers to it as a compact off-road SUV that’s inspired by extreme events. The concept was brought to life at the Hyundai America Technical Center in Irvine, California.
The off-road SUV draws design elements from Hyundai’s Extra Rugged Terrain (XRT) models, such as the IONIQ 5 XRT, Santa Cruz XRT, and the new Pallisade XRT Pro.
Although it’s a concept, Hyundai said the Crater Concept is a testament to its commitment to designing future XRT vehicles that are more functional, more capable, and more emotional.
“CRATER began with a question: ‘What does freedom look like?’ This vehicle stands as our answer,” Hyundai’s global design boss, SangYup Lee said.
The off-road SUV features Hyundai’s new Art of Steel design theme, first showcased on the THREE concept at the Munich Motor Show in September.
Hyundai said the design team was guided by one clear goal: To create a rugged and capable vehicle that’s designed to go anywhere. The Crater Concept embodies that vision with added wide skid plates, 33″ off-road tires, limb risers, rocker panels, and a roof platform.
Hyundai designed the interior for “tech-savvy adventure seekers,” with a singular design centered around a high-brow crash pad that stretches across the dashboard.
The concept also swaps the traditional infotainment setup for a head-up display that spans the entire front window, which Hyundai said includes a live rearview camera.
Hyundai’s off-roader includes a new Off-Road Controller for front and rear locking differentials, as well as a terrain selector with modes including Sand, Snow, and Mud. Other off-road features include downhill brake control, trailer brake control, a compass, and an altimeter.
Although Hyundai said it was electric, it didn’t reveal any further details about the powertrain. The off-road SUV could be a battery-electric or fuel-cell-electric vehicle.
Like the new Nexo, Hyundai’s hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, the concept features “HTWO” lamps exclusive to its FCEVs.
Earlier this week, the design team at Hyundai Design North America also introduced its new design and ideation studio codenamed “The Sandbox.” The creative design studio is set to serve as a global hub for future XRT vehicles and gear.
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OpenAI is partnering with Taiwan’s Foxconn, the world’s largest contract electronics manufacturer, to design and build artificial intelligence data center components in the U.S., the AI startup’s latest announcement tied to its massive infrastructure development plans.
While no financial terms were disclosed, OpenAI said in Thursday’s announcement that it will have early access to evaluate the systems Foxconn produces, and the option to purchase them. The companies said the goal is to accelerate the deployment of infrastructure while securing long-term U.S. capacity.
Under the agreement, OpenAI and Foxconn will co-develop multiple generations of AI servers in parallel, while manufacturing core components like power, networking, and cooling systems at Foxconn’s U.S. facilities. The company’s website says it has factories in Wisconsin, Ohio, Texas, Virginia and Indiana.
“This partnership is a step toward ensuring the core technologies of the AI era are built here,” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a statement, calling AI infrastructure a “generational opportunity to reindustrialize America.”
OpenAI has been on a dealmaking blitz of late with many of the world’s largest technology companies, and has announced spending commitments of roughly $1.4 trillion, raising concerns about whether the startup will ever generate enough profit to justify those investments. Altman said earlier this month that the company will hit $20 billion in annualized revenue by the end of this year and hundreds of billions by 2030.
Prior deals include a $100 billion announced — but unfinalized — agreement with Nvidia for the chipmaker to invest in OpenAI in phases as the company builds out infrastructure. OpenAI also has cloud partnerships with Microsoft, Google and Amazon and hefty compute buildout commitments with Oracle.
Foxconn adds a manufacturing layer, further localizing OpenAI’s supply chain and potentially speeding the pace of deployment. The company is best known for assembling Apple’s iPhones but has expanded into AI and automotive manufacturing. It builds server racks tailored for AI workloads and is a key global supplier to Nvidia, the dominant player in high-end AI chips.
“Foxconn is uniquely positioned to support OpenAI’s mission with trusted, scalable infrastructure,” said Chairman Young Liu.
But the company has a checkered history in the U.S. In 2018, Foxconn broke ground on what was supposed to be a massive factory in Wisconsin for making flat-panel displays. That project was a failure, and is now the site of an AI data center being built by Microsoft.
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