Key storylines for Ohio State-Penn State and the rest of Week 9’s biggest games
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ESPN staff
Week 9 of the college football season has begun, and multiple teams with an inside track to the playoff have big tests.
Tennessee survived its biggest challenge so far, outlasting Alabama 52-49 in Knoxville. The Volunteers will now host a Kentucky team coming off a bye that already has shown a propensity to knock off ranked opponents.
Sticking with the SEC East, Georgia and Florida will travel to Jacksonville to partake in an annual rivalry game that is still in search of its own name. Unfortunately for the Gators, they enter the matchup as more than three-touchdown underdogs, but anything is possible in Jacksonville.
Farther north, Michigan will host bitter rival Michigan State in a contest that always seems to bring fireworks, while Ohio State will travel to Penn State for the Buckeyes’ most important game to date. Ohio State has won five straight against the Nittany Lions and rolls into Happy Valley 7-0.
Oklahoma State looks to build off the momentum of a comeback win at home against Texas with an away game versus Kansas State, and out west, Oregon travels to Cal after a statement victory against UCLA in Eugene.
College football’s last weekend in October is here, and these are the biggest storylines this week.
No. 19 Kentucky at No. 3 Tennessee (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN app)
A few things have changed for Tennessee (actually a lot) since the Vols last faced Kentucky. Their 45-42 win over the No. 18-ranked Wildcats last season in Lexington snapped an 11-game losing streak against nationally ranked foes. Before that contest, which featured 1,073 yards of total offense, Tennessee’s last such victory came back in 2018 with a 24-7 win over No. 11 Kentucky.
That’s the way it’s been for the Wildcats in this series. They’ve lost 34 of the past 37 meetings, although Mark Stoops has two of those three wins in the past five years.
Stoops has built Kentucky’s program from the ground up with a pair of 10-win seasons in the past four years. Josh Heupel, in just his second season at Tennessee, has orchestrated an even more stunning turnaround. The Vols (7-0) are ranked No. 3 in the AP poll. They beat Alabama for the first time in 16 years. Tennessee leads the country in scoring offense (50.1 points per game) and is looking for its fifth win of the season over a ranked opponent.
For the first time in two decades, Tennessee is legitimately in the national championship conversation at a point in the season when the leaves are changing. A fifth win over a ranked team would match the number of coaches the Vols have had since Phillip Fulmer was fired in 2008.
These are dizzying times on Rocky Top indeed. But Heupel said his team is not about to get ahead of itself with a rested, healthier Kentucky team coming into Neyland Stadium on Saturday night.
“We’re still in the beginning stages of this journey, really the halfway point,” Heupel said. “For us, the preparation, being real with each other, competing every day is going to be critical. … So far, these guys have handled it the right way.”
In other words, any mention of the trip to No. 1 Georgia in two weeks is off-limits.
Kentucky (5-2) was off last week, which should ensure that quarterback Will Levis will be as healthy as he has been since suffering a turf toe injury against Ole Miss on Oct. 1 and missing the next game against South Carolina. Levis threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns last season against Tennessee. One of Kentucky’s chief problems this season has been protecting the quarterback. The Wildcats have allowed 26 sacks in seven games.
Levis will need to hit some big plays down the field against a Tennessee defense that is ranked 130th out of 131 teams in pass defense (329.7 yards per game). But the Vols have been stout against the run. They’re giving up just 90.8 yards per game on the ground, tied for eighth nationally. That’s where Chris Rodriguez Jr. comes in for Kentucky. He is a tough runner between the tackles, excellent after contact and can help shorten the game for the Wildcats if he is able to get it going against Tennessee’s D.
In Kentucky’s 27-17 win over Mississippi State two weeks ago, the 224-pound Rodriguez ran the ball 31 times for 197 yards and two touchdowns. — Chris Low
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 13 Penn State (Saturday, noon ET, Fox)
Before the season, an Ohio State schedule featuring Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Iowa — all before Nov. 1 — projected as one that could hold up against that of any national title contender. The way it turned out, the Buckeyes are still trying to peel off the ain’t-played-nobody label, despite their flat-out dominance.
Ohio State has won every game by double figures and the past six by an average of 38.7 points. Another convincing win at Beaver Stadium should enhance Ohio State’s profile heading into the first College Football Playoff rankings reveal, although thumping Penn State likely doesn’t carry the same value after what Michigan did to the Nittany Lions on Oct. 15.
“We know that we have to bring it every week,” Buckeyes coach Ryan Day said. “This is part of that competitive excellence, that competitive stamina. Going on the road and winning a game like this is going to be huge.”
Following the Michigan loss, Penn State responded well last week against Minnesota, and the Lions might match up better against the Buckeyes than the Wolverines, especially because of a talented secondary led by safety Ji’Ayir Brown and cornerback Joey Porter Jr. Michigan used Penn State’s aggressiveness on defense against the Lions, to the tune of 418 rushing yards, but Penn State D-coordinator Manny Diaz likely will keep the pressure on Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud if he can.
The Lions are looking for more sacks, collecting 15 through the first seven games.
“Obviously, we are challenging routes more in terms of the balls that are getting broken up, hopefully forcing the quarterback to hold onto the ball longer,” Penn State coach James Franklin said. “So in theory, we should be able to be more disruptive on the quarterback with sacks and pressures and things like that.”
Franklin has steadfastly supported his quarterback, senior Sean Clifford, who overcame an early interception against Minnesota to pass for 295 yards and four touchdowns, winning Big Ten offensive player of the week honors. Clifford played well in last year’s loss at Ohio State but received little help from Penn State’s offensive line and run game. The hope is that with improvement in both areas, combined with home-field advantage, Penn State can beat the Buckeyes for just the second time in State College since 2005.
Ohio State star wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (hamstring) is expected to play for a second straight game, but he could once again have a plays limit. Smith-Njigba has been limited to five receptions in three games, although teammates Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. have filled his production void with 1,333 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns.
The Buckeyes will look for more in the run game after Iowa limited them to 2.2 yards per carry with a long of 13 yards. — Adam Rittenberg
No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Kansas State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
The Cowboys will visit K-State for one of the biggest matchups of the Big 12 season thus far and what could shape up as an elimination game for a spot in the conference title game.
Both teams have already played the conference leader, TCU, and lost. According to ESPN Analytics, Oklahoma State has an 82% chance to reach the Big 12 title game with a win while Kansas State would have a 36% chance with a victory.
Kansas State coach Chris Klieman is 0-3 against Mike Gundy and the Cowboys since arriving in Manhattan, but Klieman is emphasizing to his team that it gets to play at home for the first time since Oct. 1 and still has a chance in the title race.
“Everything is still in front of us, but it’s all about our preparation, and this is the next opportunity,” Klieman said this week. “Now we’ve got five one-week seasons left.”
Klieman will likely be going into the game with starting quarterback Adrian Martinez as a game-time decision after an undisclosed injury in the first series sidelined him in a loss to TCU last week.
“I hope Adrian is available, but I don’t know if he’ll be available. And there’s other kids like that,” Klieman said. “We tried to manage our way through Deuce Vaughn being banged up, and he carried the ball not as many times as he typically does. We hope Deuce is healthier this week, but we’ll see.”
The Wildcats got a full dose of Cowboys quarterback Spencer Sanders last year when he threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another score in a 31-20 Oklahoma State win. But the Cowboys know they will have to stop the run against a tough K-State team that averages 232.1 rushing yards and hopes to keep Sanders — and an Oklahoma State offense that averages 44.7 points per game — off the field.
The Cowboys struggled early to stop the ground game last week against visiting Texas, allowing 161 rushing yards in the first half; but they tightened up in the second half, yielding just 43 yards while rallying for a 41-34 win.
“You know, unless you’re playing Mike Leach, you’ve got to stop the run, you got to run the ball effectively,” Gundy said. — Dave Wilson
Michigan State at No. 4 Michigan (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN app)
Michigan State handed Michigan its only regular-season loss last season in a 37-33 decision over the Wolverines. It didn’t prevent Michigan from making it to the conference championship game or the playoffs, but that loss has stuck with the Wolverines.
The teams are set to play Saturday night at Michigan Stadium in their annual rivalry game.
“Nobody’s watched the highlights of that game or the film of that game more than we have,” Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh said on the Inside Michigan Football radio show. “And also, this year’s tape. But you really want to just know them, you want to master what they’re doing so you can use it against them. And I’m sure they’re doing the same thing up the road, no question about it.”
Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker had five rushing touchdowns in last year’s victory, and the Spartans held Michigan without a rushing score. Walker is now in the NFL, and Michigan State has been trying to get its run game going, rushing for 106.1 yards per game, which is No. 116 of all FBS teams.
Michigan, on the other hand, is ranked No. 7 in rushing yards per game, and running back Blake Corum has had 666 yards on the ground in the past four games, which is the most for a Michigan running back since Mike Hart in 2004. Corum’s 13 rushing touchdowns are also the most through the team’s first seven games in program history.
That is going to make for a challenge for Michigan State to stop the Wolverines’ ground attack. Harbaugh said he expects it will be a physical game, as the team with the most rushing yards typically comes out on top, and it’s been marked on the calendar for both teams.
“We all know what this week is. It’s not just another game for us,” Michigan State coach Mel Tucker said. “Our players and staff and fans understand that.”
Tucker and the Spartans used their bye week to try to get healthy and get some players back. He noted that it’s going to take a concerted effort, whether it’s called circling the wagons, bunker mentality or “Us against the world,” to beat Michigan this weekend.
Tucker hasn’t lost to Harbaugh and Michigan over the past two seasons. And Harbaugh said that despite the Spartans having a 3-4 record, Michigan State will give the Wolverines its best.
“Old cliché, throw out the records, is very true,” Harbaugh said. “It doesn’t matter. Both sides just want it that much.” — Tom VanHaaren
Florida vs. No. 1 Georgia at TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Georgia and Florida are both coming off a bye week, but the Gators arguably needed the time to regroup a little more ahead of Saturday’s matchup.
It was one thing to lose at home to LSU on Oct. 15. But it was another thing to give up 45 points and 528 yards of offense in the process.
Florida coach Billy Napier doesn’t want to get technical or give away specifics of what’s driving his team’s defensive struggles. But he said, “I think we understand what the issues are.”
Chief among them, Napier explained, is a lack of consistency.
Defensive lineman Tyreak Sapp said the Gators are “just a few plays away.” And while that’s frustrating to be so close and yet so far away, Sapp acknowledged there’s hope in that sentiment, as well.
But digging deeper, you find a defense that desperately needs more from its front seven.
Florida is giving up the most yards per rush in the SEC East (4.47). And it is struggling to affect the quarterback with the conference’s lowest number of disrupted dropbacks at 31, a figure that includes sacks, interceptions, batted passes, passes defended and tipped passes.
Then there are the missed tackles. Florida has 67 of them. Georgia, meanwhile, has only 39.
To have any chance of pulling off the upset in Jacksonville, the Gators will need their defense to improve in a hurry, and Florida will need a big-time performance from quarterback Anthony Richardson.
Richardson has flashed first-round talent, but he also has battled consistency issues in the passing game, with six touchdowns and seven interceptions.
But Napier said he sees growth in Richardson’s understanding of the offensive system and diagnosing what the defense is doing.
“I think he’s still working hard on mastering what that process looks like Sunday to Saturday — the unwavering commitment to what’s required to play and win,” Napier said. “So that’s where he’s at. Seven games in and continues to get better.” — Alex Scarborough
Southern at Jackson State (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN app)
For all of the headlines Deion Sanders has created with his recruiting, he has done just as well on the field itself.
His Tigers will welcome “College GameDay” to town with an unbeaten status and a No. 5 FCS ranking by their name. They have won 14 straight SWAC games, and after rolling to an 11-2 record powered mostly by defense last season, they’ve been racking up major offensive numbers this time around. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders, the coach’s son, has taken his development up a few notches, completing 73% of his passes with a 23-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. And Jackson State is outscoring opponents by an average of 41-10. The Tigers did most of that without blue-chip freshman Travis Hunter too. He was injured in the first game of the season and didn’t return to action until last week.
If Southern maintains its recent form, however, this could be an intriguing game. The Jaguars fell to 1-2 after a shutout loss to Texas Southern on Sept. 17, but they have outscored their past four opponents by an average of 44-10. Sophomore dual-threat Besean McCray has completed 74% of his passes in that span and has rushed for over 70 yards four times this season. First-year coach Eric Dooley needed a few weeks, but he has the blue and gold rolling. Will that be enough against a superpowered Jackson State? We’ll see. — Bill Connelly
No. 8 Oregon at California (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
For a team that lost by 45 points to open the season, it’s a long road back to playoff relevance. That the Ducks are now ranked No. 8 in the AP poll — just past the halfway point of the regular season — represents a remarkable rise. Under first-year coach Dan Lanning, Oregon is the only team that is undefeated in Pac-12 play and heads to Berkeley, where things have started to fall apart for the Golden Bears under Justin Wilcox. The matchup provides a fascinating what-if storyline considering Oregon first pursued Wilcox before it was rebuffed, leading to Lanning.
It’s a strong year for quarterback play in the Pac-12, but Oregon’s Bo Nix is right there among the best. He ranks second in the conference in QBR, first in yards per dropback (8.7) and fourth in touchdown passes (17), and he has been sacked just once all season (the fewest among qualifying QBs in the country). Since the Georgia loss, Oregon has scored at least 41 points in each game and hasn’t been overly reliant on any of the playmakers around Nix. Despite its struggles, Cal’s defense has been good, having allowed no more than 28 points in any of the Bears’ four losses.
If Oregon really is going to make a push to be part of the playoff conversation, two key things must happen:
1. Georgia needs to keep rolling. If the Bulldogs are the clear No. 1 team in the country, it’s easier to forgive Oregon’s loss.
2. Style points. The Ducks can’t leave any doubt about how much they’ve improved, and close games against teams like Cal won’t make the necessary impression. They need to be dominant.
On the flip side, Cal’s paltry offensive production makes it fair to question how long coordinator Bill Musgrave will be for the job. The Bears have averaged just 14.3 points over the past three games, which just won’t get it done. — Kyle Bonagura
The 2025-26 NHL season begins Tuesday with a tripleheader on ESPN: Chicago Blackhawks–Florida Panthers at 5 p.m. ET (including the Stanley Cup banner-raising), Pittsburgh Penguins–New York Rangers at 8 p.m., and Colorado Avalanche–Los Angeles Kings at 10:30 p.m.
But we’re looking beyond those contests.
Will the Panthers three-peat as Stanley Cup champions? Which teams will finish the season atop the division standings? And which players will take home the major individual awards?
We’ve gathered our cross-platform ESPN hockey family together to predict the winners of each division, along with the Stanley Cup champion and the players who will win all of the hardware.
Dive deep on all 32 teams
Lapsed fan’s guide to the season
Bold predictions for every club
Fantasy hockey hub page
Goalie mask guide for 2025-26
Atlantic Division
Sean Allen: Maple Leafs
John Buccigross: Lightning
Stormy Buonantony: Lightning
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Maple Leafs
Sach Chandan: Lightning
Meghan Chayka: Lightning
Ryan S. Clark: Lightning
Ray Ferraro: Lightning
Emily Kaplan: Lightning
Tim Kavanagh: Senators
Rachel Kryshak: Lightning
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Lightning
Steve Levy: Maple Leafs
Vince Masi: Lightning
Victoria Matiash: Lightning
Sean McDonough: Lightning
AJ Mleczko: Lightning
Mike Monaco: Lightning
Arda Öcal: Lightning
T.J. Oshie: Lightning
Kristen Shilton: Maple Leafs
P.K. Subban: Lightning
John Tortorella: Panthers
Bob Wischusen: Lightning
Greg Wyshynski: Lightning
Totals: Lightning (19), Maple Leafs (4), Senators (1), Panthers (1)
Metropolitan Division
Sean Allen: Devils
John Buccigross: Hurricanes
Stormy Buonantony: Hurricanes
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Hurricanes
Sach Chandan: Devils
Meghan Chayka: Hurricanes
Ryan S. Clark: Hurricanes
Ray Ferraro: Hurricanes
Emily Kaplan: Hurricanes
Tim Kavanagh: Devils
Rachel Kryshak: Hurricanes
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Hurricanes
Steve Levy: Devils
Vince Masi: Hurricanes
Victoria Matiash: Devils
Sean McDonough: Rangers
AJ Mleczko: Hurricanes
Mike Monaco: Hurricanes
Arda Öcal: Devils
T.J. Oshie: Capitals
Kristen Shilton: Hurricanes
P.K. Subban: Capitals
John Tortorella: Devils
Bob Wischusen: Hurricanes
Greg Wyshynski: Hurricanes
Totals: Hurricanes (15), Devils (7), Capitals (2), Rangers (1)
Central Division
Sean Allen: Stars
John Buccigross: Avalanche
Stormy Buonantony: Avalanche
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Avalanche
Sach Chandan: Avalanche
Meghan Chayka: Avalanche
Ryan S. Clark: Avalanche
Ray Ferraro: Stars
Emily Kaplan: Avalanche
Tim Kavanagh: Avalanche
Rachel Kryshak: Stars
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Stars
Steve Levy: Stars
Vince Masi: Avalanche
Victoria Matiash: Stars
Sean McDonough: Stars
AJ Mleczko: Stars
Mike Monaco: Avalanche
Arda Öcal: Stars
T.J. Oshie: Stars
Kristen Shilton: Stars
P.K. Subban: Wild
John Tortorella: Wild
Bob Wischusen: Avalanche
Greg Wyshynski: Avalanche
Totals: Avalanche (12), Stars (11), Wild (2)
Pacific Division
Sean Allen: Oilers
John Buccigross: Oilers
Stormy Buonantony: Golden Knights
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Golden Knights
Sach Chandan: Golden Knights
Meghan Chayka: Golden Knights
Ryan S. Clark: Golden Knights
Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights
Emily Kaplan: Golden Knights
Tim Kavanagh: Golden Knights
Rachel Kryshak: Oilers
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights
Steve Levy: Kings
Vince Masi: Golden Knights
Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights
Sean McDonough: Oilers
AJ Mleczko: Golden Knights
Mike Monaco: Oilers
Arda Öcal: Golden Knights
T.J. Oshie: Golden Knights
Kristen Shilton: Golden Knights
P.K. Subban: Oilers
John Tortorella: Golden Knights
Bob Wischusen: Golden Knights
Greg Wyshynski: Oilers
Totals: Golden Knights (17), Oilers (7), Kings (1)
Stanley Cup
Sean Allen: Panthers
John Buccigross: Hurricanes
Stormy Buonantony: Golden Knights
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Jets
Sach Chandan: Avalanche
Meghan Chayka: Avalanche
Ryan S. Clark: Stars
Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights
Emily Kaplan: Panthers
Tim Kavanagh: Stars
Rachel Kryshak: Stars
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights
Steve Levy: Kings
Vince Masi: Avalanche
Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights
Sean McDonough: Oilers
AJ Mleczko: Avalanche
Mike Monaco: Oilers
Arda Öcal: Maple Leafs
T.J. Oshie: Oilers
Kristen Shilton: Stars
John Tortorella: Devils
Bob Wischusen: Panthers
Greg Wyshynski: Avalanche
Totals: Avalanche (5), Golden Knights (4), Stars (4), Panthers (3), Oilers (3), Hurricanes (1), Jets (1), Kings (1), Maple Leafs (1), Devils (1)
Hart Trophy (MVP)
Sean Allen: Kirill Kaprizov
John Buccigross: Connor McDavid
Stormy Buonantony: Jack Eichel
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Connor McDavid
Sach Chandan: Nathan MacKinnon
Meghan Chayka: Nathan MacKinnon
Ryan S. Clark: Kirill Kaprizov
Ray Ferraro: Nikita Kucherov
Emily Kaplan: Nathan MacKinnon
Tim Kavanagh: Nathan MacKinnon
Rachel Kryshak: Connor McDavid
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Nikita Kucherov
Steve Levy: Connor McDavid
Vince Masi: Connor McDavid
Victoria Matiash: Nikita Kucherov
Sean McDonough: Connor McDavid
AJ Mleczko: Connor McDavid
Mike Monaco: Connor McDavid
Arda Öcal: Connor McDavid
T.J. Oshie: Connor McDavid
Kristen Shilton: Auston Matthews
P.K. Subban: Kirill Kaprizov
John Tortorella: Kirill Kaprizov
Bob Wischusen: Connor McDavid
Greg Wyshynski: Nathan MacKinnon
Totals: McDavid (11), MacKinnon (5), Kaprizov (4), Kucherov (3), Eichel (1), Matthews (1)
Art Ross Trophy (points leader)
Sean Allen: Connor McDavid
John Buccigross: Connor McDavid
Stormy Buonantony: Nikita Kucherov
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Connor McDavid
Sach Chandan: Nikita Kucherov
Meghan Chayka: Connor McDavid
Ryan S. Clark: Mitch Marner
Ray Ferraro: Connor McDavid
Emily Kaplan: Nathan MacKinnon
Tim Kavanagh: Nikita Kucherov
Rachel Kryshak: Connor McDavid
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Nikita Kucherov
Steve Levy: Kirill Kaprizov
Vince Masi: Connor McDavid
Victoria Matiash: Nikita Kucherov
Sean McDonough: Connor McDavid
AJ Mleczko: Mitch Marner
Mike Monaco: Connor McDavid
Arda Öcal: Connor McDavid
T.J. Oshie: Nikita Kucherov
Kristen Shilton: Nathan MacKinnon
P.K. Subban: Connor McDavid
John Tortorella: Kirill Kaprizov
Bob Wischusen: Connor McDavid
Greg Wyshynski: Nathan MacKinnon
Totals: McDavid (12), Kucherov (6), MacKinnon (3), Marner (2), Kaprizov (2)
Rocket Richard Trophy (goals leader)
Sean Allen: Auston Matthews
John Buccigross: Auston Matthews
Stormy Buonantony: Connor McDavid
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Auston Matthews
Sach Chandan: Leon Draisaitl
Meghan Chayka: Leon Draisaitl
Ryan S. Clark: Nikita Kucherov
Ray Ferraro: Leon Draisaitl
Emily Kaplan: Leon Draisaitl
Tim Kavanagh: Kirill Kaprizov
Rachel Kryshak: Leon Draisaitl
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Auston Matthews
Steve Levy: Leon Draisaitl
Vince Masi: Brayden Point
Victoria Matiash: Auston Matthews
Sean McDonough: Leon Draisaitl
AJ Mleczko: Auston Matthews
Mike Monaco: Auston Matthews
Arda Öcal: Auston Matthews
T.J. Oshie: Leon Draisaitl
Kristen Shilton: Auston Matthews
P.K. Subban: Jake Guentzel
John Tortorella: Connor McDavid
Bob Wischusen: Auston Matthews
Greg Wyshynski: Leon Draisaitl
Totals: Matthews (10), Draisaitl (9), McDavid (2), Kucherov (1), Kaprizov (1), Point (1), Guentzel (1)
Norris Trophy (best defenseman)
Sean Allen: Cale Makar
John Buccigross: Cale Makar
Stormy Buonantony: Shea Theodore
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Cale Makar
Sach Chandan: Zach Werenski
Meghan Chayka: Cale Makar
Ryan S. Clark: Cale Makar
Ray Ferraro: Quinn Hughes
Emily Kaplan: Zach Werenski
Tim Kavanagh: Quinn Hughes
Rachel Kryshak: Cale Makar
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Cale Makar
Steve Levy: Quinn Hughes
Vince Masi: Quinn Hughes
Victoria Matiash: Quinn Hughes
Sean McDonough: Cale Makar
AJ Mleczko: Quinn Hughes
Mike Monaco: Cale Makar
Arda Öcal: Cale Makar
T.J. Oshie: Cale Makar
Kristen Shilton: Quinn Hughes
P.K. Subban: Lane Hutson
John Tortorella: Quinn Hughes
Bob Wischusen: Cale Makar
Greg Wyshynski: Rasmus Dahlin
Totals: Cale Makar (12), Hughes (8), Werenski (2), Theodore (1), Hutson (1), Dahlin (1)
Vezina Trophy (best goaltender)
Sean Allen: Jake Oettinger
John Buccigross: Jake Oettinger
Stormy Buonantony: Jake Oettinger
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Connor Hellebuyck
Sach Chandan: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Meghan Chayka: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Ryan S. Clark: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Ray Ferraro: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Emily Kaplan: Jake Oettinger
Tim Kavanagh: Jacob Markstrom
Rachel Kryshak: Igor Shesterkin
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Steve Levy: Jake Oettinger
Vince Masi: Linus Ullmark
Victoria Matiash: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Sean McDonough: Igor Shesterkin
AJ Mleczko: Jake Oettinger
Mike Monaco: Jake Oettinger
Arda Öcal: Andrei Vasilevskiy
T.J. Oshie: Connor Hellebuyck
Kristen Shilton: Igor Shesterkin
P.K. Subban: Andrei Vasilevskiy
John Tortorella: Sergei Bobrovsky
Bob Wischusen: Igor Shesterkin
Greg Wyshynski: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Totals: Vasilevskiy (9), Oettinger (7), Shesterkin (4), Markstrom (1), Ullmark (1), Bobrovsky (1)
Calder Trophy (rookie of the year)
Sean Allen: Alexander Nikishin
John Buccigross: Ivan Demidov
Stormy Buonantony: Ivan Demidov
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Ivan Demidov
Sach Chandan: Michael Misa
Meghan Chayka: Ivan Demidov
Ryan S. Clark: Ivan Demidov
Ray Ferraro: Ivan Demidov
Emily Kaplan: Zeev Buium
Tim Kavanagh: Jimmy Snuggerud
Rachel Kryshak: Ivan Demidov
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Ivan Demidov
Steve Levy: Zeev Buium
Vince Masi: Jimmy Snuggerud
Victoria Matiash: Jimmy Snuggerud
Sean McDonough: Ivan Demidov
AJ Mleczko: Zeev Buium
Mike Monaco: Ivan Demidov
Arda Öcal: Yaroslav Askarov
T.J. Oshie: Ryan Leonard
Kristen Shilton: Ivan Demidov
P.K. Subban: Matthew Schaefer
John Tortorella: Ryan Leonard
Bob Wischusen: Ivan Demidov
Greg Wyshynski: Alexander Nikishin
Totals: Demidov (12), Buium (3), Snuggerud (3), Nikishin (2), Leonard (2), Misa (1), Askarov (1), Schaefer (1)
Sports
Breaking down Aaron Judge’s early playoff performance: A productive start or another October disappointment?
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Kiley McDaniel
In case you hadn’t heard, Aaron Judge entered the 2025 MLB playoffs with a checkered history of October results compared with his stellar regular-season résumé.
For his career, Judge’s OPS is 250 points lower in the postseason than in the regular season (the average regular-season-to-playoff OPS dropoff for hitters in 2024 was 18 points), and his struggles on the biggest stage have become a talking point nearly every October.
After his .184/.344/.408 slash line during the Yankees’ 2024 postseason run, Judge is hitting objectively well in the playoffs this year — posting a 1.024 OPS and collecting an MLB-leading eight hits in his first five games. But he isn’t hitting for much power, with just one extra-base hit (a double) in 21 plate appearances, and his team enters Game 3 of the American League Division Series on the brink of elimination.
As the Yankees try to battle back against the Toronto Blue Jays, we dug deep into each of Judge’s first 18 at-bats (and three walks) to see what we can learn about his October so far.
How is Judge being pitched in the playoffs? Is it different from the regular season? Why isn’t he hitting for power? Is it bad luck? And where could his postseason go from here — if the Yankees can stick around long enough for him to find his home run stroke?
How left-handed pitchers are approaching Judge
Judge vs. lefties in playoff career: 42 PA, .400/.500/.714, 19% K, 17% BB, 3 HR
Judge vs. lefties this postseason: 8 PA, .500/.500/1.125, 13% K, 0% BB, 0 HR
Each pitcher has different strengths, but there are some clear trends that lefties are following when attacking Judge this month.
The game plan goes something like this: throw hard stuff (four-seam fastballs, sinkers, cutters) on his hands, largely down, then mix in softer stuff to keep him honest, locating those pitches down and on the corners — where he is least likely to do damage. If you miss, miss outside of the zone, not toward the middle. Don’t be afraid to nibble around the outside of the zone and live to fight another day.
That’s a solid plan against almost any hitter, but in this case, it means going hard inside against a 6-foot-7 slugger whose relative weaknesses will always include covering the plate against good stuff.
It’s telling that the two softer-throwing lefties Judge faced (Boston’s Connelly Early and Toronto’s Justin Bruihl) threw two fastballs out of their 10 total pitches and both missed off the plate inside, one missing so far inside that it hit Judge. Garrett Crochet, Aroldis Chapman, and Brendon Little were much more aggressive, likely because of their better fastballs.
How right-handed pitchers are approaching Judge
Judge vs. righties in playoff career: 241 PA, .192/.304/.409, 34% K, 13% BB, 13 HR
Judge vs. righties this postseason: 13 PA, .400/.538/.400, 23% K, 15% BB, 0 HR
Judge has faced eight different righties this postseason, and those pitchers vary vastly in their pitch mix and the quality of their stuff, but right-handed pitchers seem to be using a decision tree to craft their game plan against him.
If the righty’s top offspeed pitch is a breaking ball (slider, sweeper, curve) then he is throwing that as often as he can while locating it down and away — and mixing it with fastballs inside to keep Judge from leaning over the plate. Here’s a look at Judge vs. breaking balls only.
If the righty’s top secondary pitch is a splitter — such as Toronto’s Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage in the first two games of the ALDS — then he is mixing splitters and sliders away with some fastballs that are mostly targeted inside.
But no matter their style, one common goal for all of these pitchers is not to make a mistake over the plate!
How does Judge’s regular-season history factor into this plan?
Though Judge’s October struggles have become a narrative over his career, any team setting up its pitching strategy for a series will game plan for the two-time American League MVP with a career 1.028 OPS and 368 home runs rather than treating him like the player with a .223 average and .787 OPS in 63 career playoff games.
And that starts with keeping the ball away from where Judge can do the most damage.
During the 2025 regular season, Judge faced 176 pitches (essentially one pitch every four plate appearances) that qualified as in the middle-middle zone — or, in more general speak, right down the middle.
Against those pitches, Judge had a 1.630 OPS and 15 homers, both figures were second best in baseball.
This is where Judge ranked, among all qualified hitters in MLB this season, measured by xwOBA:
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Second best vs. middle-middle pitches
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Best vs. pitches in the heart of the zone (a larger part of the strike zone than middle-middle)
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Best per pitch vs. fastballs, second in overall value
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Best per pitch and overall vs. sinkers
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Best per pitch and overall vs. cutters
Imagine getting this scouting report as a pitcher before you face Judge in a playoff game. I wouldn’t throw him anything down the middle, either.
How Judge is handling pitches he should crush
Now for the twist: Judge has faced seven pitches in the playoffs that were in the middle-middle zone (one pitch every three plate appearances, so slightly more frequently than the regular season).
So far this postseason, Judge hasn’t put one of those pitches in play. He swung at five — fouled off four and whiffed at another — and took two middle-middle pitches for strikes.
This isn’t a trend I tried to identify in my research because the small sample means one home run on a center-cut ball would poke a hole in it, but in watching all of his playoff at-bats, I made too many of this sort of note: “target was [zone direction] corner, missed target to the middle of the zone, [nothing bad happened to the pitcher].”
So, yes, it’s a small sample, but October baseball is won and lost on small samples. Judge is getting pitched roughly how he was in the regular season (actually even a bit more hitter-friendly), but he hasn’t replicated his regular-season damage, especially when it comes to punishing mistakes thrown down the middle. Judge has performed basically the same (chase rate, xwOBA, etc.) as the regular season against noncenter-cut pitches, so not taking advantage of these mistakes is accounting for his dip in power in the playoffs this year.
Over 162 games, anyone putting up an OPS over 1.000 is having a very productive season — even if it’s all coming from singles and a few doubles — but the heat has been turned up with the Yankees facing elimination, and the offense needs to deliver, with Judge at the heart of it. This team needs Judge to punish mistakes and create some souvenirs or he is at risk of having another October disappointment added to his résumé.
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