Deeply divided Sao Paolo a perfect metaphor for Brazil’s contentious election
There’s a Gotham City-esque feel to the towering skyscrapers that dominate the skyline in every direction as far as the eye can see.
Sao Paulo is a megacity.
It’s a bustling financial hub, home to over 12 million people. The city proper is the most populous in the Americas, the western and southern hemispheres.
It’s the largest Portuguese-speaking city in the world – and that includes Portugal.
Sao Paulo has incredible wealth and dreadful poverty.
It is a deeply divided place. And is the perfect metaphor for Brazil‘s presidential election that is tearing the country apart.
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Across the country they’re voting in the second round of this election after neither the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, nor his main opponent Lula da Silva secured the vital 50% plus one vote needed for victory earlier this month.
The country is on a knife’s edge. It’s impossible to tell where this is going.
Both candidates are populists in their own ways.
Jair Bolsonaro is often compared to Donald Trump, and he certainly apes his United States’ buddy’s approach to faith, gender issues, gun ownership, and human rights – and appears to simultaneously bask in abject rudeness with a tenuous adherence to fact if it doesn’t suit his personal agenda.
Like Trump, he and his advisers have been casting the election as rigged against them.
There is a huge trade in election merchandise
This week his 26-year-old son Flavio Bolsonaro said his father is “the victim of the largest electoral fraud ever seen”, though they’ve offered no evidence.
And if Bolsonaro does win, that allegation will probably be dropped instantly.
He could win, the polls are neck and neck.
There is fear amongst Lula da Silva’s supporters that they lost momentum after the first round, that the polls had given them an inflated sense of confidence, and that the election result might not go their way.
Lula, a former president, is bidding to stage a remarkable comeback to the top of the political ladder.
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Confidence and exuberance at Lula da Silva rally in Brazil
Arrested in 2018 on corruption charges, later quashed, he was consistently the most popular political leader in the world with approval ratings in the 80s and 90s during his time in office from 2003 until 2011.
Many thought he could win the presidency in the first round on 1 October. He didn’t, and worse for him and his party, President Bolsonaro closed the gap to a handful of points.
Now everything is to play for.
The polling companies in Brazil are very sophisticated, but their results have been questioned by many.
There is a huge trade in election merchandise here; towels, flags, buttons, and caps for both candidates are sold on street corners and outside virtually every subway station and at newsagents.
Jair Bolsonaro is often compared to Donald Trump
Saulo Adriel and his brother set up store on Paulista Avenue, this city’s equivalent of Oxford Street, and he’s doing a big trade in presidential merch.
Hanging on the traffic lights next to a pedestrian crossing, Saulo has a chalkboard where he keeps a running tally which candidate’s merchandise is selling the best.
He told me after the first round it was literally neck and neck, but today, Lula appeared to be well ahead. That could be because he was about to hold a rally on the same street.
The real point is Saulo says he’s been totalling his figures up, and it appears to be too close to call.
“I don’t know who is going to win anymore. This is the most polarised election in history, I guess,” he told me while overseeing more sales.
“I think there will be 500,000 to one million votes difference between them, though I can’t say, literally, who is going to win.”
Saulo Adriel and his brother set up store on Paulista Avenue
While I spoke to him, he updated the chalkboard with another two sales for Lula.
Still, it’s so close he’s investing his money on both of them.
“My brother and I have already invested in 1,000 Bolsonaro supporter badges and 1,000 Lula badges, so it’s fifty-fifty, you know?”
The two candidates have finished their final election rallies.
President Bolsonaro took to his motorcycle in Belo Horizonte in Brazil’s south, and was greeted by thousands of adoring supporters, some also on their motorcycles.
Belo Horizonte is a bellwether state that usually predicts the eventual winner.
On Sao Paulo’s Paulista Avenue, Lula da Silva was greeted by huge numbers of partying supporters as he took to a cavalcade through the city.
In the crowd we met a group of university professors who were there dressed in white, as opposed to the party’s usual red.
Lula da Silva merchandise for sale
They explained the rally had been divided into a series of colours, and white indicated that they were there demonstrating for the protection of democratic principles and peace.
Marcos Oliveira, a professor at the University of Rio de Janeiro, told me he believes the behaviour of Donald Trump and his supporters after his election loss has been co-opted by Bolsonaro’s team, and threatens Brazilian democracy.
“The ideology behind Bolsonaro’s administration is the very same one that was built for Donald Trump,” he said.
“So, the structure behind it and the narratives are exactly the same, the difference is we know now in advance because of what happened with the elections in the United States, it prepared the groundwork for us to strike back, so we need to have this in mind.”
Standing next to him, his friend Professor Ariel Silva from Sao Paulo, nodded in agreement.
Marcos Oliveira (L) and his friend professor Ariel Silva
“Their strategy is very similar to the strategy of Trump in the last election, so we more or less have an idea what to expect, but we are here to fight for democracy,” Silva added.
On the final day then, either could win, it seems to be that close.
The problem for Brazil is that the divisions are so deep any reconciliation between the two sides will prove incredibly difficult.
World
Russia wants ‘quick peace’ in Ukraine and London is ‘head of those resisting it’, ambassador to UK tells Sky News
Russia wants “quick peace” in Ukraine and London is at the “head of those resisting” it, the Russian ambassador to the UK has told Sky News.
In an interview on The World With Yalda Hakim, Andrei Kelin accused the UK, France and other European nations of not wanting to end the war in Ukraine.
“We are prepared to negotiate and to talk,” he said. “We have our position. If we can strike a negotiated settlement… we need a very serious approach to that and a very serious agreement about all of that – and about security in Europe.”
Russian ambassador Andrei Kelin speaks to Yalda Hakim
US President Donald Trump held a surprise phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin last month, shocking America’s European allies. He went on to call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator” and relations between the pair were left in tatters after a meeting in the Oval Office descended into a shouting match.
Days later, the US leader suspended military aid to Ukraine, though there were signs the relationship between the two leaders appeared to be on the mend following the contentious White House meeting last week, with Mr Trump saying he “appreciated” a letter from Mr Zelenskyy saying Kyiv was ready to sign a minerals agreement with Washington “at any time”.
In his interview with Sky News’ Yalda Hakim, Mr Kelin said he was “not surprised” the US has changed its position on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in 2022, claiming Mr Trump “knows the history of the conflict”.
“He knows history and is very different from European leaders,” he added.
No doubt Russia is welcoming shift in world order
I’ve interviewed the Russian ambassador to the UK, Andrei Kelin, on a number of occasions, at times the conversation has been tense and heated.
But today, I found a diplomat full of confidence and cautiously optimistic.
The optics of course have suddenly changed in Russia’s favour since Donald Trump was elected.
I asked him if Russia couldn’t believe its luck. “I would not exaggerate this too much,” he quipped.
Mr Kelin also “categorically” ruled out European troops on the ground and said the flurry of diplomatic activity and summits over the course of the past few weeks is not because Europeans want to talk to Moscow but because they want to present something to Mr Trump.
He appeared to relish the split the world is witnessing in transatlantic relations.
Of course the ambassador remained cagey about the conversations that have taken place between President Trump and Vladimir Putin.
There is no doubt however that Russia is welcoming what Mr Kelin says is a shift in the world order.
Peace deal ‘should recognise Russian advances’
The Russian ambassador said Moscow had told Washington it believed its territorial advances in Ukraine “should be recognised” as part of any peace deal.
“What we will need is a new Ukraine as a neutral, non-nuclear state,” he said. “The territorial situation should be recognised. These territories have been included in our constitution and we will continue to push that all forces of the Ukrainian government will leave these territories.”
Asked if he thought the Americans would agree to give occupied Ukrainian land to Russia, he said: “I don’t think we have discussed it seriously. [From] what I have read, the Americans actually understand the reality.”
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In full: Russian ambassador’s interview with Sky’s Yalda Hakim
Moscow rules out NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine
He said Russia “categorically ruled out” the prospect of NATO peacekeepers on the ground in Ukraine – a proposal made by UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron – saying “they have no rules of engagement” and so would just be “sitting in cities”.
“It’s senseless” and “not for reality,” Mr Kelin added.
He branded the temporary ceasefire raised by Mr Zelenskyy “a crazy idea”, and said: “We will never accept it and they perfectly are aware of that.
“We will only accept the final version, when we are going to sign it. Until then things are very shaky.”
He added: “We’re trying to find a resolution on the battlefield, until the US administration suggest something constructive.”
World
US ‘destroying’ international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia ‘halfway’, Ukraine’s UK ambassador warns
The United States is “finally destroying” the international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia “halfway”, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK has warned.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi said Washington’s recent actions in relation to Moscow could lead to the collapse of NATO – with Europe becoming Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s next target.
“The failure to qualify actions of Russia as an aggression is a huge challenge for the entire world and Europe, in particular,” he told a conference at the Chatham House think tank.
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“We see that it is not just the axis of evil and Russia trying to revise the world order, but the US is finally destroying this order.”
Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Pic: Reuters
Mr Zaluzhnyi, who took over as Kyiv’s ambassador to London in 2024 following three years as commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, also warned that the White House had “questioned the unity of the whole Western world” – suggesting NATO could cease to exist as a result.
It comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy scrambles to repair relations with US President Donald Trump following a dramatic row between the two men in the Oval Office last week.
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Mr Trump signalled on Tuesday that tensions could be easing, telling Congress he had received a letter from Mr Zelenskyy saying he was ready to sign a peace deal “at any time”.
Zelenskyy and Trump during their extraordinary Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
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But on the same day, the US president ordered a sudden freeze on shipments of US military aid to Ukraine, and Washington has since paused intelligence sharing with Kyiv and halted cyber operations against Russia.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Mr Zaluzhnyi said the pause in cyber operations and an earlier decision by the US to oppose a UN resolution condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine were “a huge challenge for the entire world”.
He added that talks between the US and Russia – “headed by a war criminal” – showed the White House “makes steps towards the Kremlin, trying to meet them halfway”, warning Moscow’s next target “could be Europe”.
World
Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh being forced to fight for same military accused of genocide against their people
Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh is a sprawling mass of humanity.
It’s a sea of makeshift bamboo shelters, home to more than one million Rohingya refugees – a mainly Muslim minority from Rakhine state in Myanmar.
Some 700,000 fled their homeland back in 2017 – after the Myanmar military massacred thousands.
The army was accused of genocide by the United Nations.
The Rohingya refugees didn’t escape danger though.
Right now, violence is at its worst levels in the camps since 2017 and Rohingya people face a particularly cruel new threat – they’re being forced back to fight for the same Myanmar military accused of trying to wipe out their people.
A child at the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar
Militant groups are recruiting Rohingya men in the camps, some at gunpoint, and taking them back to Myanmar to fight for a force that’s losing ground.
Jaker is just 19.
We’ve changed his name to protect his identity.
He says he was abducted at gunpoint last year by a group of nine men in Cox’s.
They tied his hands with rope he says and took him to the border where he was taken by boat with three other men to fight for the Myanmar military.
“It was heartbreaking,” he told me. “They targeted poor children. The children of wealthy families only avoided it by paying money.”
And he says the impact has been deadly.
“Many of our Rohingya boys, who were taken by force from the camps, were killed in battle.”
Jaker speaks to Sky’s Cordelia Lynch
An aerial view of the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar
The situation in Cox’s is desperate.
People are disillusioned by poverty, violence and the plight of their own people and the civil war they ran from is getting worse.
In Rakhine, just across the border, there’s been a big shift in dynamics.
The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group has all but taken control of the state from the ruling military junta.
Both the military and the AA are accused of committing atrocities against Rohingya Muslims.
And whilst some Rohingya claim they’re being forced into the fray – dragged back to Myanmar from Bangladesh, others are willing to go.
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Teknaf in Cox’s Bazar – where refugees arrive from Myanmar after crossing the Naf River
Some are so aggrieved with the AA, they’re willing to support their former persecutors.
Abu Zar is one of those willing to take up arms.
But not for the military or AA, he says.
Everyone praying in the mosque with him is prepared to go back to protect their own cause he says – not anyone else’s.
“We want to fight for our rights because we have been demanding justice for a long time. But the situation has become unbearable,” he tells me.
Abu Zar has said he is willing to take up arms for his own cause
It’s estimated between 3,000 and 5,000 Rohingya have joined armed groups from this camp.
But the fight they are joining has become increasingly bloody.
In a cramped shelter, we meet Safura.
Safura came under fire as she fled Myanmar
Safura’s son Aman had his foot blown off
Five days ago she managed to get out of Myanmar but she had to be carried part of the way.
Her legs are riddled with bullet wounds and the pain is severe.
Her son, Aman, who lies on the floor next to her, has had his foot blown off.
They were injured she said, during an attack on her family home in the middle of the night.
“They entered our house and shot all my family members. My husband and mother-in-law were killed on the spot.”
The military denies forcing Rohingya to the battlefield. But the camps tell a different story- one of surging violence and vulnerability.
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