Bitcoin’s trading has become ‘boring’ — but that’s not necessarily a bad thing
Representations of cryptocurrency Bitcoin are seen in this illustration, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
Dado Ruvic | Reuters
Bitcoin’s lack of volatility lately isn’t a bad thing and could actually point to signs of a “bottoming out” in prices, analysts and investors told CNBC.
Digital currencies have fallen sharply since a scorching run in 2021 which saw bitcoin climb as high as $68,990. But for the past few months, bitcoin’s price has bounced stubbornly around $20,000 in a sign that volatility in the market has settled.
Last week, the cryptocurrency’s 20-day rolling volatility fell below that of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes for the first time since 2020, according to data from crypto research firm Kaiko.
Stocks and cryptocurrencies are both down sharply this year as interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar weighed on the sector.
Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks has increased over time as more institutional investors have invested in crypto.
But bitcoin’s price has stabilized recently. And for some investors, that easing of volatility is a good sign.
“Bitcoin has essentially been range bound between 18-25K for 4 months now, which indicates consolidation and a potential bottoming out pattern, given we are seeing the Dollar index top out as well,” Vijay Ayyar, head of international at crypto exchange Luno, told CNBC in emailed comments.”
“In previous cases such as in 2015, we’ve seen BTC bottom when DXY has topped, so we could be seeing a very similar pattern play out here.”
Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo, said bitcoin’s price stability was “a strong sign that the digital assets market has matured and is becoming less fragmented.”
An end to crypto winter?
Cryptocurrencies have suffered a brutal comedown this year, losing $2 trillion in value since the height of the 2021 rally. Bitcoin, the world’s biggest digital coin, is off around 70% from its November peak.
The current so-called “crypto winter” is largely the result of aggressive tightening from the Fed, which has been hiking interest rates in an effort to tame rocketing inflation. Large crypto investors with highly leveraged bets like Three Arrows Capital were floored by the pressure on prices, further accelerating the market’s drop.
However, some investors think the ice may now be beginning to thaw.
There are signs of an “accumulation phase,” according to Ayyar, when institutional investors are more willing to place bets on bitcoin given the lull in prices.
“Bitcoin being stuck in such a range does make it boring, but this is also when retail loses interest and smart money starts to accumulate,” Ayyar said.
Matteo Dante Perruccio, president of international at digital asset management firm Wave Financial, said he’s seen a “counterintuitive increase in demand of traditional institutional investors in crypto during what is a time where generally you would see interest fall off in the traditional markets.”
Financial institutions have continued taking steps into crypto despite the fall in prices and waning interest from retail investors.
Mastercard announced a service that allows banks to offer crypto trading, having previously launched a new blockchain security tool for card issuers. Visa, meanwhile, teamed up with crypto exchange FTX to offer debit cards linked to users’ trading accounts.
Goldman Sachs suggested we may be close to the end of a “particularly bearish” period in the latest cycle of crypto movements. In a note released Thursday, analysts at the bank said there were parallels with bitcoin’s trading in Nov. 2018, when prices steadied for a while before rising steadily.
“Low volatility [in Nov. 2018] was following a large bitcoin bear market,” Goldman’s analysts wrote, adding that “crypto QT” (quantitative tightening) occurred as investors poured out of stablecoins like tether, reducing liquidity. The circulating supply of USD Coin — a stablecoin that’s pegged to the U.S. dollar — has fallen $12 billion since June, while tether’s circulating supply has dropped over $14 billion since May.
Selling pressure has slowed, too, as bitcoin miners reduced their sales of the cryptocurrency, suggesting the worst may be over for the mining space. Publicly-traded bitcoin miners sold 12,000 bitcoins in June and only around 3,000 in September, according to Goldman Sachs.
Wave Financial’s Perruccio expects the second quarter of next year to be the time when crypto winter finally comes to an end.
“We’ll have seen a lot more failures in the DeFi [decentralized finance] space, a lot of the smaller players, which is absolutely necessary for the industry to evolve,” he added.
All eyes on the Fed
James Butterfill, head of research at crypto asset management firm CoinShares, said it was difficult to draw too many conclusions at this stage. However, he added, “we err on the side of greater potential for upside rather than further price falls.”
“The largest fund outflows recently have been in short-Bitcoin positions (US$15m this month, 10% of AuM), while we have seen small but uninterrupted inflows into long Bitcoin over the last 6 weeks,” Butterfill told CNBC via email.
The main thing that would lead to greater buying of bitcoin would be a signal from the Federal Reserve that it plans to ease its aggressive tightening, Butterfill said.
The Fed is expected to hike rates by 75 basis points at its meeting next week, but officials at the central bank are reportedly considering slowing the pace of future increases.
“Clients are telling us that once the Fed pivots, or is close to it, they will begin adding positions to Bitcoin,” Butterfill said. “The recent liquidations of net shorts is in sync with what we are seeing from a fund flows perspective and implies short sellers are beginning to capitulate.”
An attendee wearing a Super Mario costume uses a Nintendo Switch 2 game console while playing a video game during the Nintendo Switch 2 Experience at the ExCeL London international exhibition and convention centre in London, Britain, April 11, 2025.
Isabel Infantes | Reuters
Nintendo on Friday announced that retail preorder for its Nintendo Switch 2 gaming system will begin on April 24 starting at $449.99.
Preorders for the hotly anticipated console were initially slated for April 9, but Nintendo delayed the date to assess the impact of the far-reaching, aggressive “reciprocal” tariffs that President Donald Trump announced earlier this month.
Most electronics companies, including Nintendo, manufacture their products in Asia. Nintendo’s Switch 1 consoles were made in China and Vietnam, Reuters reported in 2019. Trump has imposed a 145% tariff rate on China and a 10% rate on Vietnam. The latter is down from 46%, after he instituted a 90-day pause to allow for negotiations.
Nintendo said Friday that the Switch 2 will cost $449.99 in the U.S., which is the same price the company first announced on April 2.
“We apologize for the retail pre-order delay, and hope this reduces some of the uncertainty our consumers may be experiencing,” Nintendo said in a statement. “We thank our customers for their patience, and we share their excitement to experience Nintendo Switch 2 starting June 5, 2025.”
The Nintendo Switch 2 and “Mario Kart World“ bundle will cost $499.99, the digital version “Mario Kart World” will cost $79.99 and the digital version of “Donkey Kong Bananza” will cost $69.99, Nintendo said. All of those prices remain unchanged from the company’s initial announcement.
However, accessories for the Nintendo Switch 2 will “experience price adjustments,” the company said, and other future changes in costs are possible for “any Nintendo product.”
It will cost gamers $10 more to by the dock set, $1 more to buy the controller strap and $5 more to buy most other accessories, for instance.
WATCH: Nintendo has ‘a lot of work to do’ to convince casual users to upgrade to Switch 2: Kantan Games
An employee walks past a quilt displaying Etsy Inc. signage at the company’s headquarters in the Brooklyn.
Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Etsy is trying to make it easier for shoppers to purchase products from local merchants and avoid the extra cost of imports as President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs raise concerns about soaring prices.
In a post to Etsy’s website on Thursday, CEO Josh Silverman said the company is “surfacing new ways for buyers to discover businesses in their countries” via shopping pages and by featuring local sellers on its website and app.
“While we continue to nurture and enable cross-border trade on Etsy, we understand that people are increasingly interested in shopping domestically,” Silverman said.
Etsy operates an online marketplace that connects buyers and sellers with mostly artisanal and handcrafted goods. The site, which had 5.6 million active sellers as of the end of December, competes with e-commerce juggernaut Amazon, as well as newer entrants that have ties to China like Temu, Shein and TikTok Shop.
By highlighting local sellers, Etsy could relieve some shoppers from having to pay higher prices induced by President Trump’s widespread tariffs on trade partners. Trump has imposed tariffs on most foreign countries, with China facing a rate of 145%, and other nations facing 10% rates after he instituted a 90-day pause to allow for negotiations. Trump also signed an executive order that will end the de minimis provision, a loophole for low-value shipments often used by online businesses, on May 2.
Temu and Shein have already announced they plan to raise prices late next week in response to the tariffs. Sellers on Amazon’s third-party marketplace, many of whom source their products from China, have said they’re considering raising prices.
Silverman said Etsy has provided guidance for its sellers to help them “run their businesses with as little disruption as possible” in the wake of tariffs and changes to the de minimis exemption.
Before Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs took effect, Silverman said on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call in late February that he expects Etsy to benefit from the tariffs and de minimis restrictions because it “has much less dependence on products coming in from China.”
“We’re doing whatever work we can do to anticipate and prepare for come what may,” Silverman said at the time. “In general, though, I think Etsy will be more resilient than many of our competitors in these situations.”
Still, American shoppers may face higher prices on Etsy as U.S. businesses that source their products or components from China pass some of those costs on to consumers.
Etsy shares are down 17% this year, slightly more than the Nasdaq.
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