Public support for sanctions on Russia remains overwhelming, but could erode if the cost-of-living crisis worsens, an exclusive poll for Sky News has found.
The poll by Ipsos suggests that 70% of the public support implementing sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
However, just 41% of people now say they would still back sanctions if it means a further rise in energy bills.
That’s a significant decrease since March, when three out of four people (73%) were willing to stomach an increase in energy prices.
Since then, energy costs have more than doubled, adding over £1,200 to the annual bills of a typical household.
A third of people (32%) now say they would oppose sanctions if they were to lead to a further increase in energy prices, up from just 8% of respondents in March.
The poll comes ahead of a special programme on Sky News in conjunction with the Imperial War Museum Institute looking at the war in Ukraine on Tuesday evening at 7.30pm.
Analysis: Support for Ukraine sanctions strong – but for how long?
The link between Russian sanctions and rising prices here is not as obvious as it may seem.
A House of Commons briefing from earlier this month found in 2021 Russian imports made up 4% of the gas used in the UK, 9% of oil and 27% of coal.
Across the EU, the equivalent figures were 39% for gas, 23% for oil and 46% for coal.
But the disruption to supply caused by the war in Ukraine, combined with an increase in demand as countries look for alternative energy sources, has still pushed up prices substantially on international markets.
This has caused the spikes in what we’re all paying to heat and power our homes.
It has also led to the government trying to convince countries like Saudi Arabia to step up energy production in a bid to calm the markets.
All that said, this polling shows that a strong response to Russia over Ukraine is still a vote winner with the public.
In fact, you can make a convincing argument that the initial muscular approach adopted by Boris Johnson was the main reason he was able to cling onto power in Downing Street for quite so long.
Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,069 adults aged 16-75 in Great Britain between 19 and 20 October for Sky News.
The poll suggests that public support for Britain’s role in assisting Ukraine remains high, with 59% of people in favour of sending arms and money to the country and 58% saying that the UK should accept more Ukrainian refugees.
However, increases in energy bills since March have left public support for sanctions more fragile than before.
According to the poll, 41% of the public are “very concerned” about the war’s impact on the UK economy, with the same proportion saying that it is contributing “a great deal” to rising prices.
The only factor which respondents were more likely to identify as contributing significantly to inflation was the Conservative government’s economic policies (48% of people). Respondents also identified excessive corporate profits, global economic headwinds and UK interest rates as key causes of the cost-of-living crisis.
One in four (25%) said they were “very concerned” about being unable to pay their bills over the next six months, with a further 45% “fairly concerned”.
Were sanctions to lead to an increase in energy bills, they would no longer enjoy support across all parts of society, as they have done so far.
Half of people in relatively secure financial positions (48%) would continue to back sanctions, with only 27% opposed.
Among those struggling most with the cost of living, however, the number of people against sanctions would be larger than the number of people in favour.
For now, however, Britain’s sympathies lie overwhelmingly with Ukraine. Just 63% of respondents said they were very concerned about the impact of the war on themselves personally, compared to 82% who said they were worried for Ukrainian civilians.
Three in four people (74%) are also concerned about the possible implications of the war for Britain’s national security.
Although additional price increases would dent support for sanctions, most people (52%) would still back the measures if they led to prices remaining at their current, high level for longer.
Even among those who said they were finding it “difficult” to get by at the moment, 45% said they would be willing to endure continued high prices for the sake of supporting Ukraine, with 30% disagreeing.
Keiran Pedley, Research Director at Ipsos, told Sky News: “These findings show sustained support for Ukraine from the British public over time, as a clear majority continue to support Britain’s role supporting Ukraine amidst widespread sympathy for Ukraine’s people.
“Although there is concern about the impact of the war on Britain’s economy, most continue to support sanctions, and think they are necessary even with higher energy and food prices.
“However, there is some evidence that support for sanctions in the face of rising energy and food prices may not be limitless if they continue to rise even further over time.”
Methodology
Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,069 adults aged 16-75 in Great Britain. Interviews took place online between 19 and 20 October 2022. Data has been weighted to the known offline population proportions. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Four teenagers and a 45-year-old man have been found guilty of murdering two boys, aged 15 and 16, who were attacked with machetes in a case of mistaken identity.
The convictions follow a five-week trial at Bristol Crown Court.
The jury heard how Max Dixon and Mason Rist were killed in a case of mistaken identity on 27 January, after being wrongly identified as being responsible for a house attack in the Hartcliffe area of the city earlier that evening.
Antony Snook, 45, Riley Tolliver, 18, and three boys aged 15, 16 and 17 were all on trial each charged with two counts of murder.
As the jury foreman returned the guilty verdicts, none of the defendants showed any reaction from the dock, as they sat impassively and stared straight ahead.
The fatal stabbings in Knowle West lasted just 33 seconds – with both boys suffering what the court heard were “unsurvivable” injuries and “instant severe blood loss”.
Both died in hospital in the early hours of 28 January.
Detective Superintendent Gary Haskins, the case’s senior investigating officer from Avon and Somerset Police, told Sky News that Max and Mason had nothing to do with the house attack.
“Those boys were not known to their attackers, they were best friends, two beautiful children just going about their lives and attacked for no reason whatsoever,” he said.
Much of the prosecution’s case was based on CCTV and doorbell videos, including a camera on Mason’s own house which captured footage of the knife attack against him.
The pair were seen leaving Mason’s home at around 11.15pm and were going for a pizza.
Prosecutor Ray Tully KC told the jury that the boys were set upon by the group who had been travelling in Snook’s Audi Q2.
He said the group were “out for revenge”, “acting as a pack” to hunt down those responsible and “tooled up” with fearsome weapons.
After the attackers fled, Max and Mason were left bleeding in the street.
The investigation involved more than 230 police officers and staff – with thousands of pieces of evidence analysed.
Hundreds mourned victims at school
The teenage victims were in year 11 together at the Oasis Academy John Williams secondary school and were preparing to sit their GCSEs this summer.
The school’s headteacher Victoria Boomer-Clark told Sky News that everyone rallied to support fellow pupils and staff.
She said: “After the boys were tragically murdered, for us first and foremost we were thinking about the families and how they were coping with the absolute tragedy and shock of that.
“I can remember trying to prepare for that Monday morning and my memories now are how exceptionally strong our young people are and how we have a real sense of community.
“Unbeknownst to us the young people had arranged to hold a vigil on the playground during breaktime on that first Monday. We had hundreds of young people and staff coming together in silence.”
Ms Boomer-Clark said the boys would have attended school prom this summer.
“We had a wall that was lit up in red for Mason and Liverpool football club and a wall in blue for Park Knowle Football Club,” she said. “The year group came together and supported each other through it.”
Detective had never seen ‘horrific’ weapons before
Detective Superintendent Gary Haskins said: “The weapons used in the attack on Mason and Max were simply horrific.
“I’ve been a detective for many, many years and I’ve had the misfortune of investigating some serious offences.
“In all my service I’ve not seen a weapon like the one we saw used on those two boys.
“There is no place for a weapon of that type in society for any reason whatsoever.”
The detective praised the boy’s families, who attended court throughout the trial.
He added: “I’m humbled by the families involved in this investigation. They’ve been at court every day, they’ve seen things at court that no parent should ever be exposed to. They saw the attacks on their children, but they maintain their dignity, their courage and their love for their family.
“How can you replace what they’ve lost? They’ve lost two beautiful sons, and I can only hope that the verdicts will bring some form of closure. It will never close completely.”
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The UK economy grew by 0.1% between July and September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
However, despite the small positive GDP growth recorded in the third quarter, the economy shrank by 0.1% in September, dragging down overall growth for the quarter.
The growth was also slower than what had been expected by experts and a drop from the 0.5% growth between April and June, the ONS said.
Economists polled by Reuters and the Bank of England had forecast an expansion of 0.2%, slowing from the rapid growth seen over the first half of 2024 when the economy was rebounding from last year’s shallow recession.
And the metric that Labour has said it is most focused on – the GDP per capita, or the economic output divided by the number of people in the country – also fell by 0.1%.
Reacting to the figures, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said: “Improving economic growth is at the heart of everything I am seeking to achieve, which is why I am not satisfied with these numbers.
“At my budget, I took the difficult choices to fix the foundations and stabilise our public finances.
“Now we are going to deliver growth through investment and reform to create more jobs and more money in people’s pockets, get the NHS back on its feet, rebuild Britain and secure our borders in a decade of national renewal,” Ms Reeves added.
The sluggish services sector – which makes up the bulk of the British economy – was a particular drag on growth over the past three months. It expanded by 0.1%, cancelling out the 0.8% growth in the construction sector.
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The UK’s GDP for the most recent quarter is lower than the 0.7% growth in the US and 0.4% in the Eurozone.
The figures have pushed the UK towards the bottom of the G7 growth table for the third quarter of the year.
It was expected to meet the same 0.2% growth figures reported in Germany and Japan – but fell below that after a slow September.
The pound remained stable following the news, hovering around $1.267. The FTSE 100, meanwhile, opened the day down by 0.4%.
The Bank of England last week predicted that Ms Reeves’s first budget as chancellor will increase inflation by up to half a percentage point over the next two years, contributing to a slower decline in interest rates than previously thought.
Announcing a widely anticipated 0.25 percentage point cut in the base rate to 4.75%, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecast that inflation will return “sustainably” to its target of 2% in the first half of 2027, a year later than at its last meeting.
The Bank’s quarterly report found Ms Reeves’s £70bn package of tax and borrowing measures will place upward pressure on prices, as well as delivering a three-quarter point increase to GDP next year.
“If you are a member of something, it means you’ve accepted membership. Anything with ‘ship’ on the end, it’s giving you a clue: it’s telling you that’s maritime law. That means you’ve entered into a contract.”
This isn’t your standard legal argument and it is becoming clear that I am dealing with an unusual way of looking at the world.
I’m in the library of a hotel in Leicestershire, a wood-panelled room with warm lighting, and Pete Stone, better known as Sovereign Pete, is explaining how “the system” works. Mr Stone is in his mid-50, bald with a goatee beard and wearing, as he always does for public appearances, a black T-shirt and black jeans.
With us are six other people, mainly dressed in neat jumpers. They’re members of the Sovereign Project (SP), an organisation Mr Stone founded in 2020, which, he says, now has more than 20,000 paying members.
As arcane as this may sound, it represents a worldview that is becoming more influential – and causing problems for authorities. Loosely, they’re defined as “sovereign citizens” or “freemen on the land”.
Their fundamental point is that nobody is required to obey laws they have not specifically consented to – especially when it comes to tax. They have hundreds of thousands of followers in the UK across platforms including YouTube, Facebook and Telegram.
Increasingly, they are coming into conflict with governments and the law. Sovereign citizens have ended up in the High Court in recent months, challenging the legalities of tax bills and losing on both occasions.
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In October, four people were sentenced to prison for the attempted kidnapping of an Essex coroner, who they saw as acting unlawfully. The self-appointed “sheriffs” attempted to force entry to the court, one of them demanding: “You guys have been practising fraud!”
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Moment ‘cult’ tries to kidnap coroner
The Sovereign Project is not connected to any of those cases, nor does it promote any sort of political action, let alone violence.
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Instead, they are focused on issues like questioning the obligation to pay taxes, as Mr Stone explains, referencing the feudal system that operated in the Middle Ages.
“Do you know about the feudal system when people were slaves and were forced to pay tax?” he asks.
“Now, unless the feudal system still operates today, and we still have serfs and slaves, then the only way that you can pay taxes is to have a contract, you have to agree to it and consent to it.”
Another member, Karl Deans, a 43-year-old property developer who runs the SP’s social media, says: “We’re not here to dodge tax.”
Local government tends to be a target beyond just demands for tax. Mr Stone speaks of “council employee crimes”.
I ask whether, considering the attempted kidnapping in Essex, there is a danger that people will listen to these accusations of crimes by councils and act on them.
“Well that’s proved,” Mr Stone says. “We only deal with facts.”
Evidence suggests this approach is becoming an issue for councils across the UK, as people search online for ways to avoid paying tax.
Sky News analysis shows that out of 374 council websites covering Great Britain, at least 172 (46%) have pages responding to sovereign citizen arguments around avoiding paying council tax. They point out that liability for council tax is not dependent on consent, or a contract, and instead relies on the Local Government Finance Act 1992, voted on by Parliament.
But the Sovereign Project’s worldview extends beyond council tax. It is deeply anti-establishment, at times conspiratorial. Stone suggests the summer riots may have been organised by the government.
“The sovereign fraternity operates above all of this,” he says. “We look down at the world like a chessboard. We see what’s going on.”
He explains that, really, the UK government isn’t actually in control: there is a shadow government above them.
“These are the people who control government,” he explains.
“A lot of people say this could be the crown council of 13, this could be a series of Italian families.”
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Professor Christine Sarteschi, an expert in sovereign citizens at Chatham University, Pittsburgh, says she’s worried about the threat sovereign citizens may pose to the rule of law, especially in the US where guns are readily available.
“The movement is growing and that’s evidenced by seeing it in different countries and hearing about different cases. The concern is that they will become emboldened and commit acts of violence,” she says.
“Because sovereigns truly believe in their ideas and if they feel very aggrieved by, you know, the government or whomever they think is oppressing them or controlling them… they can become emotionally involved.
“That emotional involvement sometimes leads to violence in some cases, or the belief that they have the power to attempt to overthrow a government in some capacity.”
Much of this seems to be based on an underlying and familiar frustration at the state of this country and of the world.
Mr Stone echoes some of the characteristic arguments also made by the right, that there is “two-tier policing”, that refugees arriving in the UK are “young men of fighting age”, that the government is using “forced immigration to destroy the country”.
Another SP member, retired investment banker David Hopgood, 61, says: “I firmly believe it is the true Englishman – and woman – of this country – that has the power to unlock this madness that’s happening in the West.
“We’ve got the Magna Carta – all these checks and balances. We just need to pack up, go down to Parliament and say: It’s time to dismiss you. You’re not fit for purpose.”
The members of the Sovereign Project are unfailingly patient and polite in explaining their understanding of the world.
But there is no doubt they hold a deeply radical view, one that is apparently growing in popularity.