We were sitting on the back of his Trump-branded pick-up truck earlier this week when he made the prediction.
“I think that’s the only thing that’s going to bring America back together after this election if we lose.”
Civil war? When I moved to America a year ago, I recall people raising this fear. I remember thinking they were mad. How could anyone possibly believe the ‘world’s greatest democracy’, as it’s sometimes fondly described, could be heading for civil war?
I’ve reported from numerous failed or failing states over the years. It seemed nonsensical to suggest that the United States of America could be among them.
Well, a year on, my view is shifting and I am profoundly concerned.
The armies and frontlines are not formed in the traditional sense. But make no mistake, there are armies and there are frontlines. The fault lines are alarmingly deep. It would be wrong to think America can just muddle its way through this inflection point in its history.
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Recent polling suggests that a growing number of Americans believe political violence is acceptable. Just last week the husband of the nation’s third most senior politician, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was attacked in their home. Police say she was the target.
On the same day as the attack, authorities warned that threats of violence against politicians nationwide had massively increased.
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The nation is bitterly divided and there is one thing causing this agitation – about a third of voting-age people in this country believe the 2020 election was stolen. They believe Donald Trump won.
Doubt sown into fabric of US society
If you spent the past two years thinking this was a fringe view peddled by a former president; a con which can now be dismissed as background noise, well think again.
Doubt has been sown into the fabric of American society. People have been duped. They are dismissing the institutions on which American democracy was built. They have been told not to trust their electoral process.
Back on the pick-up truck, Mr Scherer’s friend Corey Check was angry. These two young disciples of Mr Trump firmly believe the election was stolen by Joe Biden and the ‘woke radical left’.
“Everything. Everything is at stake. America is at stake. If we lose it, our country’s going to hell…” Mr Check said.
Loyalists still believe Trump won
Rattled by their stark predictions, I sought out a different generation of Republicans hoping for a more measured, nuanced perspective.
Local campaigner Cindy Hilderbrand had invited me to meet a group of six friends and activists at the local Republican party headquarters.
My first question – how many of them thought that Mr Trump was the rightful winner in 2020? All their hands went up.
“Absolutely did win,” retired US Marine Paul Garcia said.
He was interrupted by another in the group, Cheryl Guenther: “… and it wasn’t just the election day shenanigans. It was everything leading up to that. The suppression of the news, the suppression of everything that happened, brought on by media. The media is nothing more than a Democrat arm that is helping suppress all of this information.”
To be clear, there is no evidence at all that the 2020 election was fraudulent. Audits, recounts and court cases in states across the land concluded that nothing had occurred which would have changed the result of the election. Mr Biden won by a wide margin.
Even Mr Trump’s closest aides and his own family have said he lost. Yet he persists and his loyalists believe him.
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Golfer Trump mocks White House successor Biden
Conspiracy theories spread faster than facts
Our conversation turns to the policy issues. On abortion, on crime, on drugs, on guns, on the economy, they all have perfectly legitimate conservative views. Broadly – abortion is wrong, crime and drugs are out of control, gun control is unconstitutional and the struggling economy is Mr Biden’s fault.
But here’s the problem. They believe they are failing to get their way on those policy issues not because a majority disagrees with them but because a minority stole the last election from them.
American society is siloed in echo chambers. They consume wildly partisan cable news, they believe nonsense on social media and dismiss factual reporting. Conspiracy theories spread faster than facts.
Threat to democracy ‘understated’
Not far away, at a rally for the local democratic party candidate, I got talking to a young Democratic Party voter, a man of similar age to Mr Scherer and Mr Check but poles apart in perspective.
Was this idea of a threat to democracy overstated, I asked.
“I think it might be understated. I think there’s a genuine threat to democracy in this country and it really scares the hell out of me,” Ryan told me.
“I don’t want to end up like what we’ve seen in Europe in the past. If we don’t learn from history, we’re doomed to repeat it and we need to uphold democracy to keep going, otherwise we are going to falter as well. I am worried.”
As America heads to the polls for this midterm take on the country’s direction, the anger and the division cannot be overstated.
Reflecting on all the conversations I have had, it’s jolting and bewildering.
There is so much going on; so many issues and there is absolutely no trust for the other side. There is anger and a sense of betrayal but I felt fear too. There is a real sense that Americans on all sides don’t know what comes next or how they will react to it.
Los Angeles County Fire chief Anthony Marrone estimated that 1,000 homes and businesses have burned in the Palisades fire, the largest of the blazes in the south of the city, alone and that 100 more have been destroyed in the Eaton fire.
A preliminary review from insurance analysts at JP Morgan estimated that losses from the fires could top $10bn (£8.1bn), Sky News’ US partner network NBC News reported.
Here is everything we know about the blazes, in what fire chiefs have called a “tragic” chapter for the city.
Where are the fires, and how big are they?
There are currently five major fires raging across LA.
Here is a list of how big they are and how “contained” they are – referring to what degree the fire department has them under control.
Palisades fire
A bush fire started the blaze in Pacific Palisades, a Los Angeles County neighbourhood east of Malibu, on Tuesday morning.
By Wednesday afternoon, it had grown to more than 15,000 acres, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
Currently, it is covering at least 17,234 acres and is 0% contained by firefighters.
Eaton fire
The Eaton fire ignited Tuesday night near a canyon in the sprawling national forest lands north of downtown LA and had exploded to more than 10,000 acres by Wednesday, according to the US Forest Service.
Currently, it covers at least 10,600 acres and is 0% contained.
Hurst fire
Also on Tuesday night a fire broke out in Sylmar, a suburban neighbourhood north of San Fernando, after a brush fire.
It quickly grew to 500 acres, and currently covers 855 acres. It is 10% contained.
Lidia fire
The Lidia fire broke out near the community of Acton in a region between the Sierra Pelona and San Gabriel mountains.
Currently, at least 348 acres are affected by the blaze. It is 40% contained.
Sunset fire
The Sunset fire was sparked in the Hollywood Hills of LA, near Runyon Canyon, shortly before 6pm local time on Wednesday, prompting mandatory evacuations.
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0:57
Wildfires burn through Hollywood Hills
The blaze currently covers 43 acres and is 0% contained.
The Woodley fire in Sepulveda Basin was “under control” before it grew beyond 30 acres, while a blaze that engulfed Hollywood’s Studio City has now been extinguished, with no casualties.
Why is this happening in January – and when is wildfire season?
The typical wildfire season in the US usually kicks off mid-year, around May.
Wind speeds of up to 100mph work to spread the flames and coupled with a lack of humidity in the air, and patches of dry vegetation, the ground is much more flammable.
These winds create an “atmospheric blow-dryer” effect that will “dry things out even further”, Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), said.
The longer the extreme wind persists, the drier the vegetation will become, he said.
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2:45
How fast did the wildfires spread?
California governor Gavin Newsom said fire season has become “year-round in the state of California” despite the state not “traditionally” seeing fires at this time of year – apparently alluding to the impact of climate change.
Why are firefighters running out of water?
The demanding nature of the fires has led to reports that fire hydrants across the city have gone dry.
Wildfire attorney Ari Friedman, a partner and trial attorney at the Los Angeles-based law firm Wisner Baum, put this down to the increased demand simply overwhelming the supply.
But, he said, this “doesn’t immediately point to an equipment or water line failure as a lawyer might think of it”.
Mr Friedman added that the Palisades area, the site of the biggest fire, is served by water tanks because of the area’s high elevation.
Which celebrities have been impacted?
Hollywood celebrities are among the thousands of people who have been evacuated, while some have said they have lost their homes completely due to the fires.
The likes of Paris Hilton and actor Billy Crystal both described the anguish of losing the homes they raised their children in, with the socialite saying she was “heartbroken beyond words” to see her Malibu home “burn to the ground on live TV”.
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Actor tells Sky News of wildfires ‘panic’
Oscar-winning songwriter Diane Warren said she had also lost her home of 30 years in the fires, while The Hills stars Spencer Pratt and Heidi Montag also confirmed they had lost their home in the fires.
American presenter and actress Ricki Lake posted on Instagram to say she had lost her “dream home”, the same place she and her husband got married three years ago.
Sky News’ US correspondent Martha Kelner reported that Tom Hanks, Ben Affleck and Reese Witherspoon were all evacuated as wildfires continued to spread in the Pacific Palisades suburb of LA – an area known to be home to billionaires and A-listers.
The havoc caused by the fires has also led to the cancellation of several key dates in the awards season calendar.
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1:37
Stephanie Pratt: ‘I don’t know if my house is there’
The annual Critics Choice Awards ceremony was due to take place this weekend, but has been postponed by two weeks, to 26 January, “due to the catastrophic fires”, organisers said in a statement.
Production on several television programmes, including America’s Got Talent, Loot, Ted, Suits: LA, Happy’s Place and Hacks, is also at a standstill.
What have Trump and Biden said?
The White House said on Wednesday that President Joe Biden approved a major disaster declaration for California that will clear the way for federal funds and resources to be accessed in recovery efforts.
A statement said the president is “focused on mobilising life-saving and life-sustaining resources across the region,” and that he is “praying for those who lost loved ones, had property damaged, were injured, and for everyone affected by this and other devastating fires in the area”.
He has also cancelled his coming trip to Italy to deal with the wildfires.
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1:13
Trump blames governor for wildfires
Meanwhile, president-elect Donald Trump took aim at California’s governor Mr Newsom, repeating claims that firefighters did not have enough water in their hydrants to tackle the blaze.
“It’s a mistake of the governor, and you can say the administration,” he said on Wednesday evening.
“They don’t have any water. They didn’t have water in the fire hydrants. The governor has not done a good job.”
When will the fire weather end?
The winds that have been fuelling the blazes are beginning to drop, but dangerous conditions are expected to persist through until at least Friday, NBC said.
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Climate scientist Daniel Swain said some of the driest vegetation will come after the strongest winds have died down, warning: “So the reality is that there’s going to be a very long period of high fire risk.”
A warning for high wind remains in place for parts of greater Los Angeles, including the Malibu coast and the Santa Monica Mountains, according to the National Weather Service.
The forecaster suggests wind speeds could reach up to 60 mph.
Red flag warnings – which are issued by the National Weather Service to warn the public and authorities of imminent weather conditions that may result in extreme fire – are also set to remain in place until at least 6pm local time on Friday.
Humidity levels are expected to stay low, and they could dip into single digits in some areas into Friday.
A real-life drama is unfolding just outside Hollywood. Ferocious wildfires have ballooned at an “alarming speed”, in just a matter of hours. Why?
What caused the California wildfires?
There are currently three wildfires torching southern California. The causes of all three are still being investigated.
The majority (85%) of all forest fires across the United States are started by humans, either deliberately or accidentally, according to the US Forest Service.
But there is a difference between what ignites a wildfire and what allows it to spread.
However these fires were sparked, other factors have fuelled them, making them spread quickly and leaving people less time to prepare or flee.
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1:35
LA residents face ‘long and scary night ahead’
What are Santa Ana winds?
So-called Santa Ana winds are extreme, dry winds that are common in LA in colder winter months.
The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection warned strong Santa Ana winds and low humidity are whipping up “extreme wildfire risks”.
Winds have already topped 60mph and could reach 100mph in mountains and foothills – including in areas that have barely had any rain for months.
It has been too windy to launch firefighting aircraft, further hampering efforts to tackle the blazes.
These north-easterly winds blow from the interior of Southern California towards the coast, picking up speed as they squeeze through mountain ranges that border the urban area around the coast.
They blow in the opposite direction to the normal onshore flow that carries moist air from the Pacific Ocean into the area.
The lack of humidity in the air parches vegetation, making it more flammable once a fire is started.
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0:59
Wildfires spread as state of emergency declared
The ‘atmospheric blow-dryer’ effect
The winds create an “atmospheric blow-dryer” effect that will “dry things out even further”, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).
The longer the extreme wind persists, the drier the vegetation will become, he said.
“So some of the strongest winds will be at the beginning of the event, but some of the driest vegetation will actually come at the end, and so the reality is that there’s going to be a very long period of high fire risk.”
What role has climate change played?
California governor Gavin Newsom said fire season has become “year-round in the state of California” despite the state not “traditionally” seeing fires at this time of year – apparently alluding to the impact of climate change.
Scientists will need time to assess the role of climate change in these fires, which could range from drying out the land to actually decreasing wind speeds.
But broadly we know that climate change is increasing the hot, dry weather in the US that parches vegetation, thereby creating the fuel for wildfires – that’s according to scientists at World Weather Attribution.
But human activities, such as forest management and ignition sources, are also important factors that dictate how a fire spreads, WWA said.
Southern California has experienced a particularly hot summer, followed by almost no rain during what should be the wet season, said Professor Alex Hall, also from UCLA.
“And all of this comes on the heels of two very rainy years, which means there is plenty of fuel for potential wildfires.
“These intense winds have the potential to turn a small spark into a conflagration that eats up thousands of acres with alarming speed – a dynamic that is only intensifying with the warmer temperatures of a changing climate.”
The flames from a fire that broke out yesterday evening near a nature reserve in the inland foothills northeast of LA spread so quickly that staff at a care home had to push residents in wheelchairs and hospital beds down the street to a car park.
A billowing cloud of black smoke loomed over the main shopping street with its fancy restaurants and designer shops, threatening to destroy what many here consider to be their slice of paradise.
It is a reminder of the destructive power of this sort of weather.
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1:02
Martha Kelner reports from Pacific Palisades
Reza, a lifelong resident of Pacific Palisades, was evacuating with what belongings he could fit in his SUV.
“This is surreal, this is unbelievable,” he said.
“I’ve lived here all my life but this is like nothing I’ve ever seen before. This is the worst of the worst.
“I’ve never seen it with these winds, we just keep praying that the direction changes. But if the direction changes it’s to the detriment of somebody else, that’s the horrible part about it all.”
January is not normally wildfire season, but these are not ordinary circumstances, the blazes being propelled by the strongest winds in southern California for more than a decade, fuelled by drought conditions.
Authorities are warning that the winds will grow stronger overnight, meaning that conditions will likely worsen before they get better.
Police and the fire department went door to door, urging people to evacuate or risk losing their lives.
On the main road out of town, there was gridlock traffic, with some abandoning their cars to flee on foot.
On Mount Holyoake Avenue, Liz Lerner, an 84-year-old with congestive heart failure, was on her driveway and visibly panicked.
“I don’t drive, and I’m by myself,” she said.
“I have no relatives, I’m 100% alone and I don’t know what to do. My father built this house in 1949, this is my family home and this is the end. I’ve never seen anything like this.”
Around the corner, another man was hosing down his multi-million dollar home in a bid to save his property from the fire bounding towards it from a nearby canyon.
“I can’t decide whether to evacuate or stay and carry on hosing down my house,” he said.
“It’s hard to know which way the flames are heading.”
Other blazes were breaking out across LA with firefighting planes grounded because of winds which are growing stronger by the hour.
More homes, neighbourhoods and lives are under threat from this perfect and petrifying storm.