Democrats could be set to lose their decades-long hold on New York
For more than 20 years Democrats could rely on New York, a bastion of liberal support in their war with Republicans.
The state has not elected a Republican senator or governor for two decades.
But as the US midterms loom next week, their dominance is threatened.
As a sign they are in trouble, Democrats are drafting in the big guns this weekend
In the closing days of these elections the vice president, president and both Clintons are among the party’s stars campaigning here.
Polling numbers are moving against them.
Their candidate for governor Kathy Hochul could be in trouble.
She is neck and neck with her Republican challenger Lee Zeldin.
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But their problems go deeper.
New York is a bellwether state.
If a red wave of Republican support happens here, it is likely to be repeated nationally.
Upstate out in the suburbs there is a hankering for change.
Kathy Hochul
On the banks of the Hudson River the prosperous, sleepy town of Nyack is not a Republican stronghold, but people are not content with the last two years of Democrat government.
“I haven’t really seen the left really do anything,” waiter Maddux Cale told Sky News.
“I haven’t seen them step up when they said they were going to step up, and I haven’t seen them do anything that has actually been effective to help people.”
“Look at the inflation look at the price of fuel,” said Mike Rail, sitting outside a bar on Main St.
“I mean, it’s out of control so how do we not try something else for two years? Just two years.”
Post-pandemic problems may penalise the Democrats.
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How do midterm elections work?
Inflation, the cost of living and rising crime are motivating voters.
On the subway heading downtown, New Yorkers told Sky News they are deeply worried about their safety.
“Crime is definitely an issue – on the trains and in the suburbs as well,” one commuter said, declining to give his name.
“I have been in New York for over 40 years and this is the first time I have been afraid to come into Manhattan,” a female passenger said.
“But it’s not just Manhattan.
“I live on Long Island, which used to be safe that is not safe.
“I’m just scared.”
Lee Zeldin
She said she would still vote Democrat because she did not believe Republicans could do any better.
But enough voters are thinking of supporting Republicans to have Democrats alarmed.
You would expect a solidly liberal crowd at a drag bingo night.
But among the players in the Wolf and Warrior Brewery in White Plains New York, one former Democrat told Sky News he would be swinging his vote to Republicans.
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US braces for midterm elections
“I actually voted for Bill Clinton, so I liked Bill Clinton.
“I thought he was good for the economy and good for the markets, and then, after the last couple of years when you see what’s happening with everything now, I think you gotta go in a different direction.”
New York may be shifting politically and that spells trouble nationally.
If Republicans can do well here, they will across America too, with all that means for Joe Biden’s administration and party.
It’s 5.30am, but the car park outside a laundrette in south central Los Angeles is already bustling.
A woman is setting up a stand selling tacos on the pavement and the sun is beginning to rise behind the palm trees.
A group of seven women and two men are gathered in a circle, most wearing khaki green t-shirts.
The leader, a man named Francisco “Chavo” Romero, begins by asking how everyone is feeling. “Angry,” a few of them respond. “Proud of the community for pushing back,” says another.
Ron, a high school history teacher, issues a rallying cry. “This is like Vietnam,” he says. “We’re taking losses, but in the end we’re going to win. It’s a war.”
Francisco ‘Chavo’ Romero leads a volunteer group, attempting to warn people ahead of ICE raids
This is what the resistance against Donald Trump’s immigration policy looks like here. In the past month, immigration and customs enforcement agents – known as ICE – have intensified their raids on homes and workplaces across Los Angeles.
Since the beginning of June, nearly 2,800 undocumented immigrants have been arrested in the city, according to the Department of Homeland Security. The previous monthly high was just over 850 arrests in May this year.
Police use tear gas against protesters, angry at a recent immigration raid at a farm in Camarillo, California. Pic: AP
Videos have circulated online of people being tackled to the ground in the car park of DIY shops, in car washes and outside homes. The videos have prompted outrage, protests and a fightback.
“Chavo” and Ron belong to a group of organised volunteers called Union del Barrio. Every morning, a group of them meet, mostly in areas which have high immigrant populations.
The day I meet them, they’re in an area of LA which is heavily Latino. Armed with walkie talkies to communicate with each other, megaphones to warn the community and leaflets to raise awareness they set out in cars in different directions.
A volunteer from Union del Barrio shows Sky’s Martha Kelner how they try to stay one step ahead of ICE agents
They’re looking for cars used by ICE agents to monitor “targets”.
“That vehicle looks a little suspicious,” says Ron, pointing out a white SUV with blacked-out windows, “but there’s nobody in it”.
An elderly Latino man is standing on a street corner, cutting fruit to sell at his stall. “He’s the exact target that they’re looking for,” Ron says. “That’s what they’re doing now. The low-hanging fruit, the easy victim. And so that is proving to be more successful for their quotas.”
This man, selling fruit on a street corner in LA, is a potential target of immigration agents
In the end, it turns out to be a quiet morning in this part of LA, no brewing immigration operations. But elsewhere in the city, dawn raids are happening.
ICE agents are under pressure from the White House to boost their deportation numbers in line with Donald Trump’s campaign promise to crack down on illegal immigration.
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In June, tear gas and rubber bullets were fired at protestors demonstrating against immigration raids
Maria’s husband Javier was one of those arrested in LA. He came to the United States from Mexico when he was 19 and is now 58.
The couple have three grown-up children and two grandchildren. But Javier’s work permit expired two years ago, according to Maria and so he was living here illegally.
Maria’s husband Javier was arrested after his work permit expired
She shows me a video taken last month when Javier was at work at a car wash in Pomona, an area of LA. He is being handcuffed and arrested by armed and masked ICE agents, forced into a car. He is now being held at a detention centre two hours away.
“I know they’re doing their job,” she says, “but it’s like, ‘you don’t have to do it like that.’ Getting them and, you know, forcing people and pushing them down on the ground. They’re not animals.”
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US troops accused of ‘political stunt’ after park raid
Maria wipes away tears as she explains the impact of his absence for the past four weeks. “It’s been so hard without him,” she says. “You feel alone when you get used to somebody and he’s not there any more. We’ve never been apart for as long as this.”
The family have a lawyer and is appealing for him to remain in the US, but Maria fears he will be sent back to Mexico or even a third country.
Maria fears her husband, who has lived in the US for nearly 40 years, will be sent back to Mexico
“I don’t know what to say to my grandkids because the oldest one, who is five was very attached to his papas, as he calls him. And he’s asking me, ‘When is papa coming home?’ and I don’t know what to say. He’s not a criminal.”
The fear in immigrant communities can be measured by the empty restaurant booths and streets that are far quieter than usual.
People in LA are being asked to report sightings of ICE officials so others can be warned
I meet Soledad at the Mexican restaurant she owns in Hollywood. When I arrive, she’s watching the local news on the TV as yet another raid unfolds at a nearby farm.
She’s shaking her head as ICE agents face off with protesters and military helicopters hover overhead. “I am scared. I am very scared,” she says.
All of her eight employees are undocumented, and four of them are too scared to come into work, she says, in case they get arrested. The process to get papers, she says, is too long and too expensive.
Read more from Sky News:
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Soledad, who owns a Mexican restaurant, plans to hide her illegal workers if immigration officials arrive
“They call me and tell me they are too afraid to come in because immigration is around,” she says.
“I have to work double shifts to be able to make up for their hours, and yes, I am very desperate, and sometimes I cry… We have no sales, and no money to pay their wages.”
There is just one woman eating fajitas at a booth, where there would usually be a lunchtime rush. People are chilled by the raids.
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Soledad says she plans to hide her illegal workers if immigration officials arrive.
“I’ve told them, get inside the fridge, hide behind the stove, climb up where we have a space to store boxes, do not run because they will hunt you down.”
The White House says they’re protecting the country from criminals. ICE agents have been shot at while carrying out operations, their work becoming more dangerous by the day.
The tension here is ratcheting up. Deportation numbers are rising too. But the order from Donald Trump is to arrest even more people living here illegally.
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