What to watch for in second College Football Playoff rankings
The results from a wild Week 10 will cause some shuffling at the top of the College Football Playoff selection committee’s rankings, as No. 1 Tennessee and No. 4 Clemson both lost.
The door to No. 4 is open for undefeated TCU … or is it?
There have been three times in the CFP era that a team has lost in the regular season and remained in the selection committee’s top four the following week. It happened in 2014 when No. 1 Mississippi State lost and dropped to No. 4, in 2016 when No. 2 Clemson lost and fell to No. 4 and in 2016 when No. 3 Michigan lost but held strong at No. 3 the next week.
While we’ll be watching to see how far Tennessee tumbles after its loss to Georgia, no team or conference should take a bigger hit when the new rankings are released Tuesday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) than the ACC and Clemson, which lost in embarrassing fashion at Notre Dame on Saturday.
Here are the key questions the committee will answer Tuesday night. Additionally, Adam Rittenberg looks at what will happen as opposed to what should happen, and our college football reporters weigh in with their picks for the top four.
Six key questions to watch for
1. Will Georgia be the undisputed No. 1? Well, the Bulldogs certainly should be — and this decision became much easier for the group, which struggled last week to separate Tennessee, Ohio State and Georgia at No. 1. There were committee members who felt strongly about all three teams for the top spot, but there should be more consensus after Georgia thoroughly outplayed the Vols, the committee’s No. 1 team from a week ago, in a 27-13 win. Georgia has supplanted Tennessee for the top spot in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, as the Bulldogs also have a dominant win against No. 8 Oregon.
“Georgia is an exceedingly solid team that the committee really likes and felt good about who they are,” selection committee chair Boo Corrigan said last week. “Obviously the dominant win at the beginning of the season against Oregon turned a lot of heads.”
Saturday’s win should only create further separation between Georgia and the rest of the contenders.
2. Can TCU top Tennessee? With the losses by Tennessee and Clemson, the timing is right for the committee to reward the undefeated Frogs, who were No. 7 last week, and slot them in the top four. It’s not a given, though, because Tennessee still trumps TCU with its high-quality wins over LSU and Alabama, and the selection committee had questions about TCU’s defense, which Corrigan said “struggled to keep points off the board at times.” (The same could be said for Tennessee, however.)
On Saturday, TCU once again had to come from behind — this time against a Texas Tech team that fell below .500 with the loss. TCU has also been hurt by a downward spiral in the rest of the Big 12, as the Frogs’ run of four straight wins over potentially ranked opponents (vs. Oklahoma, at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma State and vs. Kansas State) now looks less impressive. All of those opponents have at least three losses and only K-State figures to be in this week’s top 25. The committee doesn’t just look at wins against top 25 teams, though. It also sees wins against opponents above .500 as respectable, and all four of those teams still have winning records.
Tennessee, meanwhile, hasn’t lost what impressed the committee enough to earn the No. 1 spot in the first place: its wins against Alabama and LSU, and the latter looks better than ever.
3. Speaking of LSU, how high will the two-loss Tigers be? LSU should be hovering around No. 7 as the highest-ranked two-loss team, but still behind Tennessee because the committee will honor the head-to-head result. That wasn’t pretty for the Tigers as the Vols pummeled LSU 40-13 in Baton Rouge on Oct. 8. Even with LSU seemingly out of the picture for now, don’t discount the Tigers from ultimately finishing in the top four if they can run the table and win the SEC. No two-loss team has ever made the playoff, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. If LSU wins out, it would have defeated Alabama and SEC East champion Georgia along the way, helping to compensate for its season-opening 24-23 loss to Florida State (which could now be a CFP top 25 team) and that ugly loss to Tennessee.
LSU should win its final three regular-seasons games at Arkansas, vs. UAB and at Texas A&M, who are a combined 12-13. Any Power 5 team that can punctuate its résumé with a conference title will have the committee’s attention, and it’s one tiebreaker the group will use when choosing between teams they think are otherwise comparable.
4. Who has the edge, Tennessee or Oregon? This is an under-the-radar storyline that could be critical on Selection Day. If the Ducks run the table and finish as a one-loss Pac-12 champion and the Vols finish 11-1, this could be a huge debate in the committee meeting room. Where these teams are ranked Tuesday will be the first clue, as they both have suffered their only loss of the season to Georgia. The Vols and Ducks combined to score 16 points in their games against the Dawgs — and they’ve scored at least 30 points against everyone else they’ve played this year. Oregon has won eight straight games since that season-opening debacle, and the committee has noticed.
“I think the win over UCLA has gone a long way,” Corrigan said last week. “They’ve scored at least 41 points since that game and … Bo Nix has had a great season. As we looked at it, obviously that initial game, what they’ve been able to do since that time, I think, has really turned the committee’s head.”
Here’s the potential headache for the committee: LSU wins the SEC, but Tennessee is sitting there with a convincing win over the SEC champion despite not even playing for the title. And one-loss Oregon wins the Pac-12 title. Who gets the nod?
5. How far do Clemson, Wake Forest and Syracuse sink? This is the nightmare scenario for the ACC, which is easily in the worst playoff position of any Power 5 conference. Wake Forest and Syracuse, which are two of Clemson’s best wins, should drop out of the committee’s top 25 after suffering their third losses. Clemson can’t be dismissed from the conversation entirely, as it could still finish as a one-loss ACC champion, but it’s clear the Tigers aren’t playing like a top-four team.
The ACC would need absolute chaos in the other conference title games to garner serious consideration, but the committee liked something about Clemson, enough to have the Tigers at No. 4 last week. Their best justification for that move was that Clemson was the only team to have three wins against CFP top 25 opponents, and that went out the window Saturday with the performances by Wake Forest and Syracuse.
6. Is Notre Dame ranked? If the Irish make their first appearance in the top 25, it could help Ohio State and one-loss USC. Oregon is the Pac-12’s best hope at a playoff team, but it’s not the only one-loss team still in the mix. Both USC and UCLA would be considered if they can add the Pac-12 title to their résumé. USC hosts Notre Dame on Nov. 26 in its regular-season finale — right after a road trip to UCLA. Those could be back-to-back games against ranked opponents that either catapult USC into the top four or derail its hopes entirely.
Ohio State’s win against Notre Dame in the season opener has helped separate the Buckeyes from Michigan, which has been criticized in the committee meeting room for its weak strength of schedule. While the selection committee holds the Wolverines in high regard, it’s clear that if Michigan doesn’t beat Ohio State in the regular-season finale, it probably won’t have enough on its résumé to finish in the top four. Its best win would be against Penn State. Should Ohio State lose to the Wolverines, though, it would have at least a slightly better chance of consideration in part because of its win against the Irish, especially if Notre Dame can find a way to win out.
What the committee will — and should — do
I warned them last week. The selection committee members could have read right here why ranking Clemson ahead of TCU carried risk. They did it anyway, slotting the Tigers three spots ahead of the Horned Frogs, and paid the price. Maybe they’ll listen this time.
What the CFP selection committee will do: Leave TCU out of the top four
What the CFP selection committee should do: Include TCU in the top four
NC State athletic director Boo Corrigan, and every CFP selection committee chair before him, has a mostly thankless job. Every week until the final ranking, Corrigan must justify the committee’s reasoning for slotting teams in certain places, even if the rationale is different and arguably hypocritical.
Last week, the committee ranked TCU at No. 7 because of its slow starts and perceived lack of overall dominance.
“You look at TCU, and again we’re looking for a balanced team, offense and defense, they have gotten behind in some games,” Corrigan said.
Never mind that LSU, ranked No. 10 in the initial top 25, had started slowly in almost every game: Florida State, Mississippi State, Auburn, Tennessee, Ole Miss. Like TCU, LSU had found ways to rally and post come-from-behind wins. Unlike TCU, LSU had lost two of those contests.
The Horned Frogs on Saturday played right into the selection committee’s perception of them, trailing 4-4 Texas Tech at the end of the first and third quarters before pulling away in the fourth. TCU has trailed in the second half in four of its six league wins. Even though two undefeated top-four teams lost last week (No. 1 Tennessee and No. 4 Clemson), the committee has leeway to leave out TCU again. You can hear it now: Tennessee had been more dominant until it faced Georgia; Oregon has been more dominant since it faced Georgia.
But TCU absolutely deserves top-four inclusion after its first 9-0 start since 2010, when the team ran the table and won the Rose Bowl. The reason? Few FBS teams are better finishers.
TCU has outscored opponents 180-102 in the second half and 104-48 in the fourth quarter. The Frogs won by only 10 Saturday, but had a drive stall at Texas Tech’s 4-yard line with 3:34 left, which allowed the Red Raiders to score once more. The final easily could have been 41-17 instead of 34-24.
Teams should get credit for in-game adjustments and dominating the most critical quarter. TCU also has the balance Corrigan wants, even if it’s not always displayed in traditional ways. The Frogs have scored 30 or more points in every game (UCLA is the only other FBS team to do so). They’ve allowed a total of 30 points in the second half in their past four games combined.
TCU likely needs more complete performances to remain undefeated, beginning this week at Texas. But rallies and resiliency can’t be selective traits when evaluating teams. They’ve become TCU’s identity this season. At this moment, the Frogs absolutely belong in the top four. — Adam Rittenberg
Staff picks for top four
Here’s a look at how ESPN’s college football reporters see the current playoff picture.
Andrea Adelson: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Blake Baumgartner: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Ohio State 4. TCU
Bill Connelly: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Heather Dinich: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
David Hale: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Tennessee 4 TCU
Chris Low: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Michigan, 4. TCU
Harry Lyles Jr.: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Ryan McGee: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Oregon
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Alex Scarborough: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Mark Schlabach: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Oregon
Tom VanHaaren: 1 Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Dave Wilson: 1 Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
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Chris Low, ESPN Senior Writer
Tennessee‘s Nico Iamaleava has been cleared medically to play Saturday against Georgia and is set to return as the Vols’ starting quarterback, sources told ESPN.
Iamaleava, a redshirt freshman, missed the second half of the 33-14 win over Mississippi State last week after suffering a blow to the head. He was listed as questionable earlier this week on the SEC availability report but has been removed in the latest report.
Iamaleava practiced this week, including team periods, and there was optimism among the staff that he was trending in the right direction and would be able to play. But the final call was made by medical personnel. Iamaleava was examined by doctors for what sources told ESPN were concussion-like symptoms after leaving the Mississippi State game. He did not return to the sideline for the second half.
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said on Monday that he felt like Iamaleava would be in “great shape for Saturday” and noted that Iamaleava was with the team earlier Monday morning for meetings and team activities. The Vols’ first full-scale practice was Tuesday.
Iamaleava was having his most productive outing against an SEC team this season before leaving the game against Mississippi State. He completed 8 of 13 passes for 174 yards, no interceptions and a pair of touchdowns as Tennessee built a 20-7 halftime lead. In Iamaleava’s previous five SEC games, he had accounted for three touchdowns and turned it over five times. He was also sacked 15 times in those five games.
Redshirt senior Gaston Moore filled in for Iamaleava in the second half last week and finished 5-of-8 for 38 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions.
Getting Iamaleava back for the Georgia game is big news for Tennessee, which is right in the middle of the SEC championship race and College Football Playoff picture.
Receiver Dont’e Thornton (hand) has also been given the green light to play for Tennessee after earlier being listed as questionable.
Week 12 is here as we take a look at an SEC matchup that has College Football Playoff implications, learn about three of the nation’s top passers who all played under the same coach and see what’s going on in the Big 12.
No. 7 Tennessee will visit Sanford Stadium as it takes on conference opponent No. 12 Georgia on Saturday night. With so much at stake, what can each team improve on ahead of this SEC showdown?
The Big 12 has six teams in the hunt for a spot in the conference title game. With the final CFP rankings coming out in less than a month, what scenario looks most realistic for the conference in terms of how many of its teams could make the 12-team field?
Our college football experts preview big games and storylines ahead of the Week 12 slate.
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Tennessee-Georgia | The coach behind three top QB passers
What’s going on in the Big 12 | Quotes of the Week
What has each team done well in conference play? What improvements can be made?
It has been a historic (and dominant) season for Tennessee’s defense, which has yet to give up more than 19 points in any of its nine games. Against SEC competition, the Volunteers lead the conference in scoring defense, giving up 16.7 points per game, and also lead the way in third-down defense and red zone defense. In other words, they’ve given up very little of anything on defense and are buoyed by a line that’s both talented and deep. Tennessee plays a ton of players up front and has been especially good at forcing key turnovers. In 23 trips inside its own 20-yard line, the Vols have forced six turnovers.
The reality is that Tennessee has played to its defense for much of this season out of necessity. The offense has lacked consistency and struggled to generate explosive plays, particularly in the passing game. It’s not all on redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava, either. Iamaleava has thrown only five touchdown passes in six SEC games, and the Vols are tied for 10th with an average of 7.5 yards per completion. Iamaleava, who sustained a head injury in a win over Mississippi State last week, has been the victim of poor pass protection at times, and his receivers have dropped some costly passes. Iamaleava has also been shaky when it comes to overthrowing receivers and occasionally holding onto the ball too long.
The bright spot on offense for Tennessee has been running back Dylan Sampson, who has a school-record 20 rushing touchdowns. He has been a constant for the Vols on offense and has an SEC-leading 772 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns in conference play. As good as he has been, the Vols are probably going to need more from their passing game to win in Athens. — Chris Low
The Bulldogs didn’t do much of anything well in last week’s 28-10 loss at Ole Miss, which was the first time in a long time that Kirby Smart’s team was manhandled on the lines of scrimmage.
The good news for Georgia: It’s heading home to Sanford Stadium for the first time in more than a month. Georgia hasn’t dropped back-to-back games in the regular season since 2016, Smart’s first season, and it has bounced back after each of its past eight losses. The Bulldogs have won seven of their past eight games against the Volunteers.
For all of quarterback Carson Beck‘s turnovers, Georgia’s problems on offense probably start up front. The offensive line hasn’t done a good job of protecting him, and the Bulldogs’ lack of a potent running game has prevented them from effectively utilizing play-action passes. Their banged-up offensive line is going to face another formidable defensive front Saturday. Georgia has 27 dropped passes, fourth most in the FBS, according to TruMedia, so its receivers need to become more reliable as well. — Mark Schlabach
The coach behind three of college football’s top passers
Miami‘s Cam Ward, Washington State‘s John Mateer and North Texas‘ Chandler Morris are three of the top five quarterbacks in total offense this season in FBS. All three have the same head coach to thank for where they are today.
North Texas coach Eric Morris coached Ward at Incarnate Word and Washington State, recruited Mateer to the Cougars and signed Morris out of the transfer portal this offseason. All three hailed from Texas and are putting up big numbers this season. Morris, a Mike Leach disciple, knows what he’s looking for when it comes to QBs.
For each one, the journey was different. Ward was a zero-star recruit out of West Columbia, Texas, played in a wing-T offense and had no scholarship offers. But he showed up to Incarnate Word’s camp in 2019 and impressed with his quick release and accuracy. Morris saw appealing traits, too, in Ward’s multisport talents.
“He was such a good basketball player,” Morris said. “He was a bigger guy who could really handle the ball and move with ease. He had a twitch and quickness about him that was almost Mahomes-esque, where he’s not fast but you see him get out of the pocket and scramble and he’s nifty on his feet. He saw the floor great and shot the basketball great.
“It might be easier at an FCS school to take that risk, but it was something we were really confident in.”
Ward came in with extreme confidence, telling coaches he’d win the starting job over their returning all-conference player (and he did). He followed Morris to Pullman, Washington, out of loyalty to the coach who believed in him. Now he’s playing on a big stage, chasing a College Football Playoff bid and a Heisman Trophy with the No. 9 Hurricanes.
“It’s been fun to watch him flourish and get rewarded for being patient all these years,” Morris said.
When Morris left UIW to become Washington State’s offensive coordinator in 2022, he brought Ward but needed another QB. On his first recruiting trip in Texas, he stopped by to check out Mateer. The two-star recruit had a prolific senior season at Little Elm High School but was committed to Central Arkansas. Morris didn’t understand what FBS programs were missing and convinced Mateer to flip.
After two seasons behind Ward, Mateer has emerged as one of the top dual-threat QBs in college football with 2,332 passing yards, 805 rushing yards (excluding sacks) and 33 total TDs.
“I think the sky’s the limit,” Ward said. “He’s just so dang hard to tackle in the open field. Just a kid that loves ball and was under-recruited. The tide’s turned and he ends up being a big-time ballplayer.”
Chandler Morris was not an under-the-radar talent, but he’s having his best season yet at North Texas. He began his career at Oklahoma, won the starting job at TCU in 2022, sustained a knee injury in its season opener and then watched Max Duggan lead the Horned Frogs to the national title game.
Morris had a six-game stint as TCU’s starter last season before injuring the same knee. At UNT, he’s leading the nation’s No. 3 passing offense with 3,244 total yards and 30 TDs. Like Ward and Mateer, he processes information quickly, makes plays with his feet and throws outside the pocket with accuracy. If you ask Eric Morris, those traits are a must in today’s game. When paired with his version of Air Raid ball, you get big-time results.
“It’s been fun to see him get his swagger back,” Morris said.
Eric Morris points to Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels. The QBs thriving at the highest level are becoming unstoppable by creating plays out of the pocket. And so are his guys.
“Everybody obviously watches Cam and the magic he makes,” Morris said, “but I think all three of ’em can make plays when it’s not a perfect play call. There are a bunch of really good pure passers nowadays, but that’s what sets them all apart.” — Max Olson
What’s going on in the Big 12?
Two-thirds of the way through the Big 12 schedule, six teams are still in the hunt for a title-game appearance: BYU (6-0), Colorado (5-1), Arizona State, Iowa State, Kansas State and West Virginia, all of which are 4-2. There are too many variables to discuss all the scenarios, but the conference has a straightforward tiebreaker policy.
It’s possible to come up with scenarios in which the Big 12 could get two bids, one bid or shut out altogether.
For the Big 12 to get two bids, BYU probably would have to finish 12-0, then lose a close game in the championship to a two-loss team (Colorado, Iowa State or Kansas State). A 12-1 BYU team would get consideration, but it would become a question of how far it would fall and what else happens around the country.
The most likely scenario is the Big 12 will get one team in: whichever one wins the conference title game. If BYU wins out, it will have a bye, but if it slips up even once — or if another team wins the title — Boise State might be in position to get a first-round bye, assuming the Broncos win out.
The doomsday scenario in the Big 12 is if the conference champion has two or three losses and Army and Boise State win out. If that’s the case, there is a good possibility both of those schools would be ranked ahead of the Big 12 champion and the Big 12 would be left out. — Kyle Bonagura
Quotes of the Week
“They’re stubborn, man. They’re physical. He is an elite runner. The runs they run are sometimes nontraditional. They run some runs that other people don’t run because of the space in the box. He’s very patient. He hits small creases. He’s hard to tackle. How many touchdowns has he got in the SEC? Twenty-something? That’s crazy. In the SEC? The SEC is the hardest league in the world to run the ball in on because they’ve got the most size defensive lineman, and he continues to do it at a crazy pace to me.” — Kirby Smart on Volunteers tailback Dylan Sampson.
“I never try to take a step back. I try to take a step up. I’m always putting my head out the window. I’m trying to see around the corner, not trying to see straight ahead. It’s normalcy for everybody to see what’s in front of them. I’m trying to see around the corner. That’s the relationship I have with the Lord, to help me see around the corner so I can help navigate these young men as well as the women that’s attached to our program to a better way and a better life. So I don’t get caught up in the ‘You go, boys!’ or the ‘You ain’t nothing.’ You know, if I would’ve listened to you guys earlier, I’ve gotta listen to you now. So I might as well just put some headphones on and block you out. Notice I don’t have a sponsor for headphones, but that would’ve been a good placement for a sponsor.” — Deion Sanders when asked if he takes time to step back and appreciate the magnitude of Colorado’s turnaround.
“I hope anyone who has ambitions about playing in the National Football League, let’s see what you’ve got against Clemson. Let’s see you play your best game here. If you weren’t focused for Virginia, which I can’t imagine you weren’t — and I’m not saying anybody was not focused — but if they didn’t get your focus, I imagine Clemson will get your focus when you put the tape on.” — Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi on whether playing Clemson gets the attention of his players.
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