Connect with us

Published

on

Results have been coming in all night and our live maps and charts are continuing to update, showing the progress of both races.

When we started it seemed like the Democrats were likely to lose both the Senate and the House. Now, it looks like they could end up losing neither.

The latest estimate from NBC News has the Republicans winning 219 House seats compared with the Democrats’ 216, meaning they would still take control but with much less authority than the 40+ gains anticipated by some pollsters.

A margin for error is attached to that estimate as well, so what it truly means is that either party could still win.

And after the Democrats gained Pennsylvania’s Senate seat that race is also very much in the balance, with just a handful of states left to declare.

There has been the odd notable gain for the Republicans in certain seats, for example Jen Kiggans defeating January 6 investigator Elaine Luria in Virginia’s battleground 2nd district.

But much of the picture is muddied by the redistricting that has taken place since the 2020 election. Many of the seats listed as ‘gains’ are new districts entirely or representing geographies almost unrecognisable to ones they’ve replaced.

These gains, for both parties although benefiting the Republicans overall, don’t necessarily reflect the shifting of Americans’ political preferences but the adjustment of the American political map.

What is the House of Representatives and how are seats allocated?

Although the map above looks fairly well soaked-through in Republican red, that too can be misleading.

Each seat has a similar population to each other, but some are much smaller than others geographically. Usually that’s in city areas where there’s a denser population.

This map shows each district as the same size as each other, which can give a better sense of the balance of power across the country.

The race for the Senate

The balance of power in the Senate was always expected to be poised more delicately than the House, and with just five seats left to declare we’re not much closer to working out who will come out on top.

The Democrats made a potentially crucial gain in Pennsylvania, but are still battling tight defences in Nevada and Georgia which could turn the Senate to the Republicans. They only needed to make one gain in this election overall to take control.

The Democrat challenge in Wisconsin, a state won by Mr Biden in 2020, also appears to be closer than expected.

Including those seats which weren’t up for election this year, this is how the balance of the Senate will look until the 2024 election.

Why aren’t all states having elections?

What does this mean for Donald Trump?

The former president is yet to officially announce his intention to run for election again but is still the bookies’ favourite to win in 2024.

Although he is less prominent on social media these days he certainly hasn’t shied away from politics. Over the course of the campaign for these midterm elections he has issued endorsements to 174 of the 430 Republican candidates in the House, and tens more for would-be Republican Senators, Governors and Secretaries-of-State.

But initial results suggest that may have backfired. Republican House candidates backed by Mr Trump have actually performed worse than those who weren’t.

The Republican vote share in areas with a Trump-backed candidate has increased by 1.8 percentage points compared to the 2020 election.

That’s far less than the 6.9 percentage point increase in areas where the local Republican candidate had no such endorsement.

Those endorsements, prized weapons in Republican primaries of recent months, appear to have proven less helpful in winning over Democrats and independent voters.

The difference is most striking in Democrat-held seats, but even in Republican areas Trump-endorsed candidates have fared relatively poorly.

This analysis is based on early results from fewer than half of counties, so may not be representative of the final outcome but at least give us a glimpse of how things are going.

What does this election mean for America?

After the 2020 election it was the first time since Barack Obama’s first term that both chambers of Congress and the presidency had been in Democratic hands.

It is much easier for a president or a party to enact their policies if all three are held by the same party.

If Joe Biden’s Democrats lose control of one or both chambers they will lose the ability to set the agenda on the big issues dividing the country, things like gun control, the economy, abortion, immigration, and climate change.

The president’s parties do typically lose seats at the midterms – 28 on average – although the Democrats will of course be hoping to buck that trend as George W Bush last did in 2002, a year on from 9/11.

President Biden’s approval ratings have been at a historic low however, which made that look unlikely.

The Republicans needed to gain five seats from the 2020 result to take the House, and just one for the Senate.


Credits:

Reporters – Daniel Dunford and Ben van der Merwe
Lead data engineer – Przemyslaw Pluta

Continue Reading

World

A conversation with historian Sir Niall Ferguson on Trump, tariffs and China

Published

on

By

A conversation with historian Sir Niall Ferguson on Trump, tariffs and China

👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈

Richard and Yalda are joined by one of the world’s most eminent historians and political commentators to discuss culture wars, trade wars, and the possibility of World War Three over Taiwan.

Sir Niall says the US may be in the stage of “buyer’s remorse” with the Trump presidency, and predicts that by this time next year, he could be “deeply underwater” in the polls.

To get in touch or to share questions for Richard and Yalda, email theworld@sky.uk

Click here to visit their YouTube channel where you can watch all the episodes.

Click here to fill in our listener survey!

Episodes of The World With Richard Engel And Yalda Hakim will be available every Wednesday on all podcast platforms.

Continue Reading

World

In the idyllic Cognac region of southern France, Trump’s tariffs threaten a centuries-old way of life

Published

on

By

In the idyllic Cognac region of southern France, Trump's tariffs threaten a centuries-old way of life

The impact of Trump’s tariffs is reaching deep into every economy.

We travelled into the French rural heartland, heading for Cognac – the home of French brandy.

It is only half the size of Surrey but its exports to America are worth €1bn a year and that trade is now severely threatened.

The first buds are out on the vines of Amy Pasquet’s vineyard.

An American, she has married into the industry and with her French husband owns JLP Cognac.

She knows more than most the bond brandy has formed between their two countries that goes back to the war.

Tariffs latest: Follow live updates

More from World

Ms Pasquet said: “A lot of the African-American soldiers had really loved their experience here and had brought back the cognac. And I think that stayed because this African-American community truly is a community and they want to drink like their grandfather did.”

The ties remain with rappers like Jay Z’s love for cognac.

However, Ms Pasquet adds: “There’s also this other community of people who have been drinking bourbon for a long time, love bourbon, but find the prices just outrageous today. So they want to try something different.”

Amy Pasquet owns JLP Cognac with her husband
Image:
Amy Pasquet owns JLP Cognac with her husband

JLP’s products were served at New York’s prestigious Met Gala.

They were preparing to launch new product lines in the US. But now that’s in doubt.

It is hard being an American in France now, Ms Pasquet says.

Her French neighbours are appalled by what US President Donald Trump is doing.

She continues: “They’re like, okay, America’s forgotten how close France and America are as far as (their) relationship is concerned. And I think that’s hurtful on both sides. I think it’s important to remember that the US is many things, and not just this one person, and there are millions of inhabitants that didn’t vote for him.”

aaa

A fresh challenge for a centuries-old tradition

Making cognac takes years, using techniques that go back centuries. In another vineyard we met Pierre Louis Giboin whose family have been doing it for more than 200 years.

In a cellar dating back to the French Revolution, barrels of oak sit under thick cobwebs, ageing the brandy.

The walls are lined with a unique black mould that thrives off the vapours of cognac.

They have seen threats come and go over those centuries, wars, weather, pestilence. But never from a country they regard as one of their oldest allies and best of customers.

Read more:
What China could do next as Trump’s tariff war
How tariffs will affect your money

Could Trump’s tariffs tip the world into recession?

Pierre Louis Giboin's family has been making cognac for centuries
Image:
Pierre Louis Giboin’s cellar dates back to the French revolution

Mr Trump’s tariffs, says Mr Giboin, now threaten a way of life.

“It’s at the end of like very good times in the Cognac region. It’s been like 10 years when everything’s been perfect, we have good harvest, we sell really easily all the stock, but now I mean it’s the end.”

Ms Pasquet and Mr Giboin are unusual.

Most cognac makers sell their produce through the drink’s four big houses, Hennessy, Remy Martin, Martell and Courvoisier.

Some have been told the amounts they can sell have been drastically reduced.

Independents though like them must find new markets if the tariff threat persists.

Confusion away from the chaos

Outside in the dappled light of a Cognac evening Mr Giboin and I toast glasses of pineau – the diluted form of cognac drunk as an aperitif.

In this idyllic corner of France, a world away from Washington, Mr Trump’s trade war on Europe simply makes no sense.

“He’s like angry against the whole world and the way he talks like that Europe the EU was made against the US to cheat on the US. It’s just crazy to think like this,” Mr Giboin says.

It’s not just what Mr Trump’s done. It’s how Europe now strikes back that concerns the French. And it’s not just in Cognac where they’re concerned

France exports more than €2bn worth of wine to America.

In the heart of the Bordeaux wine region, Sylvie Courselle’s family have been making wine since the 1940s at their Chateau Thieuley vineyard.

It’s bottling season but they can’t prepare the wine headed for America while everything is up in the air.

Showing me the unused reels of US labels for her wine she told me she was losing sleep over the uncertainty.

Later she was meeting with her American distributors.

Gerry Keogh sells Ms Courselle’s wine across the US.

He says the entire industry is reeling

Sylvie Courselle with distributers
Image:
Sylvie Courselle with distributers

The Chateau Thieuley vineyard in the Bordeaux wine region
Image:
The Chateau Thieuley vineyard in the Bordeaux wine region

“I think it’s like anything. You don’t really believe it’s happening. And even when you’re in the midst of it, it was kind of like 9/11.

“You’re like… This is actually happening. It’s unbelievable. And when you start seeing the repercussions from the stock market, et cetera, and how it’s impacting every level, it’s quite shocking.”

They know the crisis is far from over and could now escalate.

“We feel stuck in the middle of this commercial war and we don’t have the weapons to fight, I think,” Ms Courselle said.

It is, she says, very stressful.

Jerry Keogh
Image:
Gerry Keogh

aaaaa

The histories of America and France have been intertwined for centuries through revolutions against tyranny and two wars fighting for liberty.

America used to call France its oldest ally, but under Donald Trump its now seen here as turning on France and the rest of Europe in a reckless and unjustified trade war.

It is all doing enormous harm to relations between the US and its European allies.

How Europe now decides to retaliate will help determine the extent of that damage.

Continue Reading

World

In the idyllic Cognac region of southern France, Trump’s tariffs threaten a centuries-old way of life

Published

on

By

In the idyllic Cognac region of southern France, Trump's tariffs threaten a centuries-old way of life

The impact of Trump’s tariffs is reaching deep into every economy.

We travelled into the French rural heartland, heading for Cognac – the home of French brandy.

It is only half the size of Surrey but its exports to America are worth €1bn a year and that trade is now severely threatened.

The first buds are out on the vines of Amy Pasquet’s vineyard.

An American, she has married into the industry and with her French husband owns JLP Cognac.

She knows more than most the bond brandy has formed between their two countries that goes back to the war.

Tariffs latest: Follow live updates

More from World

Ms Pasquet said: “A lot of the African-American soldiers had really loved their experience here and had brought back the cognac. And I think that stayed because this African-American community truly is a community. and they want to drink like their grandfather did.”

The ties remain with rappers like Jay Z’s love for cognac.

However, Ms Pasquet adds: “There’s also this other community of people who have been drinking bourbon for a long time, love bourbon, but find the prices just outrageous today. So they want to try something different.”

Amy Pasquet owns JLP Cognac with her husband
Image:
Amy Pasquet owns JLP Cognac with her husband

JLP’s products were served at New York’s prestigious Met Gala.

They were preparing to launch new product lines in the US. But now that’s in doubt.

It is hard being an American in France now, Ms Pasquet says.

Her French neighbours are appalled by what US President Donald Trump is doing.

She continues: “They’re like, okay, America’s forgotten how close France and America are as far as (their) relationship is concerned. And I think that’s hurtful on both sides. I think it’s important to remember that the US is many things, and not just this one person, and there are millions of inhabitants that didn’t vote for him.”

aaa

A fresh challenge for a centuries-old tradition

Making cognac takes years, using techniques that go back centuries. In another vineyard we met Pierre Louis Giboin whose family have been doing it for more than 200 years.

In a cellar dating back to the French Revolution, barrels of oak sit under thick cobwebs, ageing the brandy.

The walls are lined with a unique black mould that thrives off the vapours of cognac.

They have seen threats come and go over those centuries, wars, weather, pestilence. But never from a country they regard as one of their oldest allies and best of customers.

Read more:
What China could do next as Trump’s tariff war
How tariffs will affect your money

Could Trump’s tariffs tip the world into recession?

Pierre Louis Giboin's family has been making cognac for centuries
Image:
Pierre Louis Giboin’s cellar dates back to the French revolution

Mr Trump’s tariffs, says Mr Giboin, now threaten a way of life.

“It’s at the end of like very good times in the Cognac region. It’s been like 10 years when everything’s been perfect, we have good harvest, we sell really easily all the stock, but now I mean it’s the end.”

Ms Pasquet and Mr Giboin are unusual.

Most cognac makers sell their produce through the drink’s four big houses, Hennessy, Remy Martin, Martell and Courvoisier.

Some have been told the amounts they can sell have been drastically reduced.

Independents though like them must find new markets if the tariff threat persists.

Confusion away from the chaos

Outside in the dappled light of a Cognac evening Mr Giboin and I toast glasses of pineau – the diluted form of cognac drunk as an aperitif.

In this idyllic corner of France, a world away from Washington, Mr Trump’s trade war on Europe simply makes no sense.

“He’s like angry against the whole world and the way he talks like that Europe the EU was made against the US to cheat on the US. It’s just crazy to think like this,” Mr Giboin says.

It’s not just what Mr Trump’s done. It’s how Europe now strikes back that concerns the French. And it’s not just in Cognac where they’re concerned

France exports more than €2bn worth of wine to America.

In the heart of the Bordeaux wine region, Sylvie Courselle’s family have been making wine since the 1940s at their Chateau Thieuley vineyard.

It’s bottling season but they can’t prepare the wine headed for America while everything is up in the air.

Showing me the unused reels of US labels for her wine she told me she was losing sleep over the uncertainty.

Later she was meeting with her American distributors.

Gerry Keogh sells Ms Courselle’s wine across the US.

He says the entire industry is reeling

Sylvie Courselle with distributers
Image:
Sylvie Courselle with distributers

The Chateau Thieuley vineyard in the Bordeaux wine region
Image:
The Chateau Thieuley vineyard in the Bordeaux wine region

“I think it’s like anything. You don’t really believe it’s happening. And even when you’re in the midst of it, it was kind of like 9/11.

“You’re like… This is actually happening. It’s unbelievable. And when you start seeing the repercussions from the stock market, et cetera, and how it’s impacting every level, it’s quite shocking.”

They know the crisis is far from over and could now escalate.

“We feel stuck in the middle of this commercial war and we don’t have the weapons to fight, I think,” Ms Courselle said.

It is, she says, very stressful.

Jerry Keogh
Image:
Gerry Keogh

aaaaa

The histories of America and France have been intertwined for centuries through revolutions against tyranny and two wars fighting for liberty.

America used to call France its oldest ally, but under Mr Trump it is now being as turned on, as France, along with the rest of Europe, finds itself in what many would argue is a reckless and unjustified trade war.

It is all doing enormous harm to relations between the US and its European allies.

How Europe now decides to retaliate will help determine the extent of that damage.

Continue Reading

Trending