Britain is in the grip of a mental health crisis that is causing workers to drop out of the labour market and fuelling staff shortages.
The number of people neither working nor seeking work has ballooned since the pandemic to almost nine million.
Figures analysed by Sky News show that this is being driven by long-term sickness and, in particular, mental health conditions.
Levels of economic inactivity among the long-term sick jumped by 537,500 between the year to June 2019 and the year to June 2022.
Some 454,300 can be attributed to mental health conditions, such as depression, stress and anxiety orders. The figures relate to those aged 16 and over.
Plummeting participation rates pose challenges for businesses. Although the number of job vacancies is falling after a post-lockdown jobs boom, they remain near record levels.
This means employers have fewer workers to choose from when filling roles and limits the economy’s potential to grow.
More on Mental Health
Related Topics:
The figures also suggest that employers could better support the workers they do have. The number of employed people with long-term mental health conditions jumped by 816,400 over the same period.
Image: Those off work due to mental health conditions jumped by 454,300
A recent report by the professional services firm Deloitte found that the annual costs to UK employers of poor mental health have increased by 25% since the start of the pandemic. This can be measured in levels of absenteeism, productivity and turnover.
Advertisement
Policymakers are alert to the problem.
Rise in economic inactivity will ‘hold UK growth back’
Jonathan Haskel, a member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee, warned last month: “In most countries in the developed world, the economic inactivity rate, that is the proportion of people neither working nor actively searching for jobs… increased during the pandemic, but then fell back.
“But the UK is different….This rise in economic inactivity will hold UK growth back.”
Growth will be key for the government as it seeks to fill a gaping hole in public finances. If more people are out of work it means smaller tax receipts for the Treasury and higher levels of spending on unemployment benefits.
Image: The number of employed people with long-term mental health conditions rose by 816,400
Britain’s disability benefits bill has already reached £14.7 billion. Four-fifths of the rise in the number of disability benefits recipients over the past two decades has been driven by psychiatric conditions, such as mental health problems and learning disabilities.
Uptick in disability benefits ‘driven by mental health conditions’
Tom Waters, an economist at the Institute of Fiscal Studies, said: “If those trends continue, that’s going to continue to put pressure on that expense, particularly at a time when the government is struggling to fill the deficit.
“When we look over the last couple of decades, there’s been a really big uptick in (the number of people) on disability benefits. That’s been almost entirely driven by mental health conditions. So we’re looking at something on the order of about a million people now claiming disability benefits for mental health. That makes up almost half of everyone who gets disability benefits. If we look back to the early 2000s, it was only about a quarter or so.”
At 3.5%, Britain’s unemployment rate is at a record low, but it belies worrying long-term trends that have been made worse by the pandemic.
A mental health epidemic is driving an increase in economic inactivity among the long-term sick. These people are not looking for work so they do not show up in the unemployment figures but the longer they remain out of work, the harder it will be for them to return.
A smaller workforce means there are fewer people to produce the goods and services that help the economy to grow.
It also increases competition for workers, bidding up wages at a time when inflation is running rampant.
The Bank of England has already asked workers to show “restraint” when asking for pay rises but, with competition rife, employers may have no choice but to fork out for workers.
Poundland will halt rent payments at hundreds of its shops if a restructuring of the ailing discount retailer is approved by creditors later this summer.
Sky News has learnt that Poundland’s new owner, the investment firm Gordon Brothers, is proposing to halt all rent payments at so-called Category C shops across the country.
According to a letter sent to creditors in the last few days, roughly 250 shops have been classed as Category C sites, with rent payments “reduced to nil”.
Poundland will have the right to terminate leases with 30 days’ notice at roughly 70 of these loss-making stores – classed as C2 – after the restructuring plan is approved, and with 60 days’ notice at about 180 more C2 sites.
The plan also raises the prospect of landlords activating break clauses in their contracts at the earliest possible opportunity if they can secure alternative retail tenants.
In addition to the zero-rent proposal, hundreds of Poundland’s stores would see rent payments reduced by between 15% and 75% if the restructuring plan is approved.
The document leaves open the question of how many shops will ultimately close under its new owners.
More on Retail
Related Topics:
Follow The World
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
A convening hearing has been scheduled for next month, while a sanction hearing, at which creditors will vote on the plan, is due to occur on or around August 26, according to one source.
The discounter was sold last week for a nominal sum to Gordon Brothers, the former owner of Laura Ashley, amid mounting losses suffered by its Warsaw-listed owner, Pepco Group.
The UK’s cost of living crisis hangover is facing fresh pressure from the Israel-Iran conflict and growing tensions across the Middle East.
Whenever the region, particularly a major oil-producing country, is embroiled in some kind of fracas, the potential consequences are first seen in global oil prices.
The Middle East accounts for a third of world output.
Iran’s share of the total is only about 3%, but it is the second-largest supplier of natural gas.
Add to that its control of the key Strait of Hormuz shipping route, and you can understand why any military action involving Iran has huge implications for the global economy at a time when a US-inspired global trade war is already playing out.
What’s happened to oil prices?
Global oil prices jumped by up to 13% on Friday as the Israel-Iran conflict ramped up.
It was the biggest one-day leap seen since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, which gave birth to the energy-driven cost-of-living crisis.
From lows of $64 (£47) a barrel for Brent crude, the international benchmark, earlier this month, the cost is currently 15% higher.
Iran ships all its oil to China because of Western sanctions, so the world’s second-largest economy would have the most to lose in the event of disruption.
Should that happen, China would need to replace that oil by buying elsewhere on the international market, threatening higher prices.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:42
How the Middle East conflict escalated
How are natural gas prices holding up?
UK day-ahead prices are 15% up over the past week alone.
Europe is more dependent on Middle East liquefied natural gas (LNG) these days because of sanctions against Russia.
The UK is particularly exposed due to the fact that we have low storage capacity and rely so much on gas-fired power to keep the lights on and for heating.
The day-ahead price, measured in pence per therm (I won’t go into that), is at 93p on Monday.
It sounds rather meaningless until you compare it with the price seen less than a week ago – 81p.
The higher sum was last seen over the winter – when demand is at its strongest.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:18
Aftermath of Iranian missile strike in northern Israel
What are the risks to these prices?
Market experts say Brent crude would easily exceed $100 (£74) a barrel in the event of any Iranian threats to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz – the 30-mile wide shipping lane controlled by both Iran and Oman.
While Iran has a history of disrupting trade, analysts believe it will not want to risk its oil and gas income through any blockade.
What do these price increases mean for the UK?
There are implications for the whole economy at a time when the chancellor can least afford it, as she bets big on public sector-led growth for the economy.
We can expect higher oil, gas and fuel costs to be passed on down supply chains – from the refinery and factory – to the end user, consumers. It could affect anything from foodstuffs to even fake tan.
Increases at the pumps are usually the first to appear – probably within the next 10 days. Prices are always quick to rise and slow to reflect easing wholesale costs.
Energy bills will also take in the gas spike, particularly if the wholesale price rises are sustained.
The energy price cap from September – and new fixed-term price deals – will first reflect these increases.
But energy price rises are an inflation risk and a potential threat to future interest rate cuts.
While LSEG data shows financial markets continuing to expect a further two interest rate cuts by the Bank of England this year, the rate-setting committee will be reluctant to cut if the pace of price growth is led higher than had been expected.
At a time when employers are grappling with higher taxes and minimum pay thresholds, and consumers a surge in bills following the ‘awful April’ hikes to council tax, water and other essentials, a fresh energy-linked inflation spike is the last thing anyone needs.
The cost of rural crime in Wales is at its highest in more than a decade, a new report has revealed.
Last year, rural crime cost an estimated £2.8m in Wales, according to insurance provider NFU Mutual.
That’s an 18% increase on the previous year, with Wales the only UK nation to have seen a rise.
For farmers like Caryl Davies, that makes their work harder.
The 21-year-old farms on a beef and sheep farm in Pembrokeshire.
She told Sky News that having the quad bike stolen from her family farm last August had made them feel “really unsafe at home”.
Image: Caryl Davies farms in North Pembrokeshire
The fact it happened in such a rural area was a “really big shock” for Ms Davies and her family.
More on Farming
Related Topics:
“We’d rely on the bike day in day out, to look after our cows and sheep, and it’s had a really negative impact on us,” she said.
The cost of replacing a bike exactly like theirs would be “close to £10,000”.
“They’re a really expensive piece of kit, but you can’t be without them, especially in these rural areas where we’ve got the mountain and maybe places that aren’t very accessible,” she added.
“The bike is totally crucial for our day-to-day running of the farm.”
Image: Caryl Davies
The incident was caught on camera in the calving shed, but the Davies family have since invested in an enhanced CCTV system. That comes at an additional cost.
“For some farmers, this is spare money that we haven’t really got,” Ms Davies added.
“Farming is hard enough as it is, without people stealing your things and having to spend this extra money on making your home farm safe.”
The total cost of rural crime across the UK has fallen since 2023 – down from £52.8m to £44.1m.
Quad bike and All Terrain Vehicles (ATVs) remained the top target for thieves during the past year, NFU Mutual’s figures show.
James Bourne farms in Pontypool, Torfaen, and claims to have had over 200 sheep stolen from common land adjoining his farm over a four-year period.
The 32-year-old told Sky News that losing sheep from his herd was a “big hit” on his business as well as the young family he is trying to support.
“The way agriculture is at the moment anyway, we’re struggling to make ends meet, and any profit that is in it is obviously being taken from me,” he said.
“So I really need to try and find out and get to the bottom of where they’re going because obviously it’s an ongoing issue.”
Image: James Bourne
Andrew Chalk, from NFU Mutual, told Sky News that while there had been a “significant drop” across the UK, there were “worrying signs”.
“In Wales,especially, rural crime’s gone up which just shows that organised criminals are looking for ways to target the countryside again and again,” he said.
“What we’ve found increasingly is that organised criminals are targeting certain areas of the countryside, so they’re hitting multiple farms in one night.
“They’re raiding them, they’re moving away to another area and then hitting multiple farms there. So it is hugely concerning.”
Image: Andrew Chalk
Mr Chalk said NFU Mutual had also heard reports of criminals using drones and other equipment to “look at the lay of the land”.
“What it does show is that organised criminals are always going to find new ways to target rural crime and that’s why we need to be on top of it and to work together to actually disrupt them,” he added.
Police forces in Wales say they are aware of the “significant impact” that rural crimes have on those affected.
A Dyfed-Powys Police spokesperson said the force had acquired new technology to help combat rural crime, including “advanced DNA asset-marking kits” and hopes to “empower farmers with effective tools and advice”.
The spokesperson acknowledged the difficulty of patrolling the entire police force area, “given the huge area” it has to cover, and thanked rural communities for their “continuing vigilance and for reporting any suspicious activity”.
Temporary Chief Superintendent Jason White, from Gwent Police, said the force would be “increasing resources” within the rural crime team throughout this financial year and urged anyone in a rural area who believes they have been a victim of crime to get in touch.