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By definition, midterm elections in America occur two years into a presidential term with two years to go until the next general election.

They have no direct bearing on who is the president of the United States residing in the White House.

The midterms are about electing officials to Congress – the other, legislative, branch of the US government and to offices in each of the 50 states, the constitutional counterbalance to the centralised federal government in Washington DC.

In the excitement of poring over the many results from a massive nationwide vote involving millions of people, it is worth remembering that extrapolating from the midterms is a very unreliable way of predicting who will be the next president or even who will be the main nominees in the race.

Recent history shows how wrong snap judgments can be. Two years out from the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump was widely regarded as an unlikely joke candidate. At a similar point ahead of 2008, conventional wisdom was leaning towards Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani as nominees.

Quite different people, Barack Obama and John McCain, actually fought it out in the end. In 1994 Newt Gingrich led the “Republican Revolution” with his “contract with America” smashing the ambitions of Bill Clinton’s Democrats. He was Time magazine’s man of the year and tipped as a future president. In spite of numerous bids for the White House, he never came close.

The final results are not yet in but there are already some pointers as to the political mood in the US.

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The “expected” red wave was more of a ripple. There is almost always a backlash against a first-term president’s party in the midterms but the Democrats fared much better under President Joe Biden than they did under Mr Obama or Mr Clinton.

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Check the results from the US
Surge of support for Trump’s Republicans fails to take off

As Dominic Waghorn has reported here, Republican candidates endorsed by Donald Trump fared significantly worse than those who steered clear of him.

Only a minority of Republican candidates were interested in campaigning on “the big steal” – the false claim that Mr Trump really won re-election in 2020, Republican analysts argue that the party is now pivoting away from Donald Trump’s obsession.

Dr Mehmet Oz the Republican senate candidate in Pennsylvania pointedly phoned Democrat John Fetterman to concede defeat. Mr Trump is said to be furious with his wife Melania for endorsing the TV doctor. Fox News played Mr Trump down on election night and Rupert Murdoch’s main US newspapers, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Post, have become heavily critical of him. The Post dubbed the former President “Trumpty Dumpty” this week.

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‘Red wave’ fails to show

Control of the evenly-split US Senate is down to three states which also played a key role in determining the outcome of the 2020 presidential contest: Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. Given that Republicans have not polled as strongly as they would have liked, the special election run-off in Georgia on 6 December will be key. Under state law the winner has to take over 50% of the vote. In the first round the Democratic incumbent pastor Raphael Warnock had 49.2% and his Republican opponent, former football star Herschel Walker, had 48.7%.

From next January the lower house of Congress, the House of Representatives, will flip from Democrat to Republican. Kevin McCarthy will replace Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, the third-highest elected office in the US. A Republican House will most likely prevent President Biden from passing any further significant legislation. The investigation into the 6 January 2021 assault on the Capitol and Mr Trump’s role in it will probably be shelved.

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Donald Trump may soon be yesterday’s news as America’s right-wing media turns to Ron DeSantis
Could Florida governor Ron DeSantis thwart Donald Trump’s fresh run for the White House?

The stand-out winner of the night was 44-year-old Ron DeSantis, the Republican Governor of Florida who won re-election by a landslide in what is now Mr Trump’s home state. Another name to watch is the high profile and ambitious JD Vance, the best-selling author of Hillbilly Elegy. He fought a poor campaign but still held the Ohio Senate seat comfortably for the Republicans.

Immediately before the election, the assumption was that the race in 2024 would be a rerun of 2020: Biden v Trump. Both men had already indicated their intention of standing again, though neither had yet made a formal declaration. If he (all men so far) put his name forward, an incumbent president such as Mr Biden would not normally be seriously challenged by his own party. The Trump machine looked to be unbeatable.

Trump vs DeSantis battle anticipated

The Democrats’ relatively mild drubbing this week would seem to cement Mr Biden in place. But there is now a question mark over Mr Trump in spite of his insistence in advance that a poor Republican showing would have nothing to do with him. A battle for the nomination between Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis is widely anticipated. Things are unlikely to be so straight forward.

Mr Trump faces a busy few days. On Monday he is under subpoena to appear before the House January 6 Inquiry – though whether he will turn up is a matter of conjecture. On Tuesday he has promised to make a “very big announcement” that he said will be “perhaps” the biggest in American history. This is widely expected to be the official launch of his bid for re-election in 2024. Win or lose, campaigning is a money maker for Trump.

Becoming president would be the best escape from the various civil and legal law suits engulfing him. But the Republican hierarchy do not want him to be their candidate and pressure is mounting on him to delay. If he pulls out, Mr DeSantis will definitely put himself forward. However, there would be bound to be a contested primary season for the Republican nomination, with no certainty that Mr DeSantis would emerge the winner. Mr DeSantis’ prospects are even more uncertain if he gets locked in a bloody contest with Mr Trump, with others putting themselves forward as compromise candidates.

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The answer to the Republicans’ candidate quandary may determine whether Joe Biden, who will celebrate his 80th birthday on 20 November, really bids for the democratic nomination and a second term. Analysing the data, the Republican pollster Frank Luntz explains that Mr Biden is the only Democratic nominee likely to beat Mr Trump (he’s already done it once) but, paradoxically, any other Republican nominee would beat Mr Biden. If it is not going to be against Mr Trump, the Democrats would be wise to go with someone other than Mr Biden.

Fallibility of opinion polls

The fallibility of American opinion polls further adds to the uncertainty. The polls and the data mining aggregators who work from them, such as Nate Silver’s 538.com, had another bad night this week. John Della Volpe, the head of polling at the Kennedy School at Harvard University, did much better foreseeing the mere “red ripple”.

He points out that most of the commercial polls are commissioned by right-leaning entities and have tended to show the Republicans doing better than turns out to be the case. In particular their samples have failed to reflect the high level engagement of younger voters and their centrist tendencies, most likely boosted by the Supreme Court’s ruling against abortion.

All this means that we don’t yet know what the political battleground will be in 2024 and we can’t be sure who the “frontrunners” will be. It is unwise to read too much into the midterms or to pay much attention to the same pundits who told us that President Trump in 2024 was practically a locked-on certainty. The confusing wonders of democracy really were on the ballot this November.

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Boy, 8, killed in US Catholic school shooting named – as victim’s father brands attacker ‘a coward’

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Boy, 8, killed in US Catholic school shooting named - as victim's father brands attacker 'a coward'

An eight-year-old boy killed in the US Catholic school shooting has been named – as his father branded the attacker a “coward”.

Fletcher Merkel was one of two children killed during mass at Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis on Wednesday.

Eighteen other people were injured, including children aged between six and 15 and three adults in their 80s.

Police said Robin Westman, a male born as Robert Westman, opened fire with a rifle through the windows of the school’s church as children sat in pews.

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New details released of US school shooting

Dad says ‘Fletcher loved his family’

In a statement reported by Sky’s US partner network NBC News, Fletcher’s father Jesse Merkel blamed the “coward” killer for why the boy’s family can’t “hold him, talk to him, play with him, and watch him grow into the wonderful young man he was on the path to becoming”.

He added: “Fletcher loved his family, friends, fishing, cooking, and any sports that he was allowed to play.

“While the hole in our hearts and lives will never be filled, I hope that in time, our family can find healing.”

Mr Merkel said he prayed the family of the 10-year-old victim – who has not been identified – would also find peace.

“I’ve heard many stories accounting the swift and heroic actions of children and adults alike from inside the church,” he added.

“Without these people and their selfless actions, this could have been a tragedy of many magnitudes more. For these people, I am thankful.”

Families and loved ones reunite at the scene after the shooting. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Families and loved ones reunite at the scene after the shooting. Pic: Reuters

Mayor calls for assault weapon ban

It comes after Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey called for a statewide and federal ban on assault weapons, a day after the deadly school shooting.

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Minneapolis mayor urges assault weapons ban

“Thoughts and prayers are not going to cut it. It’s on all of us to see this through,” the mayor said at a news conference. “We need a statewide and a federal ban on assault weapons.

“We need a statewide and a federal ban on high-capacity magazines. There is no reason that someone should be able to reel off 30 shots before they even have to reload.

“We’re not talking about your father’s hunting rifle gear. We’re talking about guns that are built to pierce armour and kill people.”

Meanwhile, Minneapolis police chief Brian O’Hara gave an update on the investigation, saying the suspect had fired 116 rifle rounds into the church.

“It is very clear that this shooter had the intention to terrorise those innocent children,” he added, before saying the killer “fantasised” about the plans of other mass shooting attackers and wanted to “obtain notoriety”.

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Thomas Klemond, interim CEO of Minneapolis’s main trauma hospital Hennepin Healthcare, said at an earlier news conference that the hospital was treating nine patients injured in the shooting.

One child at the hospital was in a critical condition, he added.

Children’s Minnesota Hospital also said that three children remain in its care as of Thursday morning.

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New details released about killer in Catholic school shooting in US

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New details released about killer in Catholic school shooting in US

Police have released new details about the killer in the US Catholic school shooting – including that they “idolised” mass murderers and they wanted to “watch children suffer”.

Two children, aged eight and 10, were killed during mass at Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis on Wednesday.

Eighteen other people were injured, including children aged between six and 15 and three adults in their 80s.

Police said Robin Westman, a male born as Robert Westman, opened fire with a rifle through the windows of the school’s church as children sat in pews.

Robin Westman
Image:
Robin Westman

Almost 120 rifle rounds fired, police chief says

In a news conference on Thursday, Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O’Hara said the attacker fired 116 rifle rounds into the church.

“It is very clear that this shooter had the intention to terrorise those innocent children,” he added.

The police chief said the killer “fantasised” about the plans of other mass shooting attackers and wanted to “obtain notoriety”.

When asked about the attacker obtaining the firearms used legally, Mr O’Hara said that they did not have a criminal history or any diagnosed mental health disorders.

While they had potentially concerning social media posts, the police chief added that there was no evidence to suggest that Westman was legally barred from purchasing a firearm.

People mourn outside the Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis. Pic: Reuters
Image:
People mourn outside the Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis. Pic: Reuters

Suspect ‘wanted to watch children suffer’

Joe Thompson, acting US attorney for Minnesota, also said evidence recovered of the killer’s plans showed “pure indiscriminate hate” and that they “idolised some of the most notorious school shooters and mass murderers in our country’s history”.

“I won’t dignify the shooter’s words by repeating them,” Mr Thompson added. “They are horrific and vile, but in short, the shooter wanted to watch children suffer.”

Earlier, the mayor of Minneapolis called for a statewide and federal ban on assault weapons after the deadly attack, saying “thoughts and prayers are not going to cut it”.

“There is no reason that someone should be able to reel off 30 shots before they even have to reload,” he said.

“We’re not talking about your father’s hunting rifle gear. We’re talking about guns that are built to pierce armour and kill people.”

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Minneapolis mayor urges assault weapons ban

Thomas Klemond, interim CEO of Minneapolis’s main trauma hospital Hennepin Healthcare, said at a news conference earlier that the hospital was treating nine patients injured in the shooting.

One child at the hospital was in a critical condition, he added.

Children’s Minnesota Hospital also said that three children remain in its care as of Thursday morning.

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In a post on Facebook, the hospital said “there are no words to describe the overwhelming pain many are feeling”, adding: “We feel that pain with you.

“To the entire Annunciation community, you have our deepest condolences. During this time of unimaginable grief and loss, we want you to know that we at Children’s Minnesota are with you.

“We will always be here to care for you. And in this moment, we hurt alongside you.”

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As Trump sends in the troops, the US capital feels like it’s creeping towards a tipping point

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As Trump sends in the troops, the US capital feels like it's creeping towards a tipping point

The headlines these past few weeks have focused on the National Guard deployed by the American president to the streets of Washington DC.

With combat rifles and armoured vehicles, they are an effective visual for Donald Trump.

They neatly project his power. But they are a distraction too.

Donald Trump has deployed National Guard troops to Washington DC. Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump has deployed National Guard troops to Washington DC. Pic: Reuters

While the troops may, for his supporters, represent hard presidential power in a Democrat-run city perceived to be out of control, they are not actually fighting crime (nor are they the right tool to do that) and they are not focused on the nation’s immigration challenges.

This week, they were spotted collecting litter in downtown DC.

Yet Trump’s law, order, and crime agenda has many strands which represent an unprecedented extension of presidential authority. Two weeks ago, at the White House, he told America what to expect.

Protests in Washington DC following the deployment of National Guard troops. Pics: Reuters
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Protests in Washington DC following the deployment of National Guard troops. Pics: Reuters

“We’re going to take our capital back; we’re going to take it back,” he said.

“Massive enforcement operations targeting known gangs, drug dealers and criminal networks to get them the hell off the street, maybe get them out of the country because a lot of them came into our country illegally.

“They shouldn’t have been allowed in. They come from Venezuela. They come from all over the world. We’re going to get them the hell out. They won’t be here long.”

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Trump: National Guard deployment will ‘take capital back’

The real story is going on beyond the National Guard photo-op.

On Tuesday morning, I set out to see what this sweeping new presidential power really looks like on the streets of America’s capital city. I didn’t expect that it would take five minutes and a drive of just a few blocks to find what appears to be a new normal.

The neighbourhood of Mount Pleasant is a couple of miles north of the White House.

It’s a proudly multicultural and multi-income part of the city. In that sense, it’s somewhat unusual. Washington is mostly a city of bubbles – where different communities are distinct, and the wealth gap is vast.

Turning off 17th Street, the flashing lights were ahead. It was just after 7am. This residential neighbourhood had been awoken this particular morning by the sound of a commotion which was unfolding in front of me.

A construction truck had been pulled over by unmarked police vehicles. Three Latino men had been taken out, handcuffed and were in the process of being taken to the police cars.

Sky News witnessed several men being detained
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Sky News witnessed several men being detained

‘You’re the Gestapo’

It was an immigration raid. The men had been detained because they were not able to prove, on demand, as they went to work, whether they were in the country legally.

Locals, drawn out of their houses, shouted at the federal agents from ICE – the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency.

“Shame, shame, shame. You’re the Gestapo… why are you doing this,” they shouted.

“These are hardworking people,” one neighbour said of the men detained.

“These people work in our neighbourhood. They work in our restaurants. They’re our neighbours. They are taking hardworking people away, not criminals.”

“I’m feeling devastated for those men who were just ripped out of their lives unceremoniously,” another neighbour told me. “I’m feeling scared for my neighbours who are afraid to leave their house because they’re afraid of exactly that happening.”

“This is not making our city safe,” her partner added, his young children crying in his arms. “Pulling out workers who are an essential member of our community and being like, ‘oh, that makes DC a better place’. It doesn’t.”

Local residents are angry about how their neighbours are being treated
Image:
Local residents are angry about how their neighbours are being treated

The surge of federal law enforcement agents into America’s capital has been unprecedented, and their powers are too.

Using presidential authority and harnessing the unique status of Washington as a district rather than a state, Trump has taken control of local law enforcement agencies in the city.

The city’s Metropolitan Police now answer to him, not to the local government, and are working alongside federal agencies.

In a recent statement, a spokesperson for ICE said: “We will support the re-establishment of law and order and public safety in DC, which includes taking drug dealers, gang members and criminal aliens off city streets.”

Here, in Mount Pleasant, this now includes taking people, speculatively, from their vehicles on their way to work.

Much of the enforcement is heavily armed
Image:
Much of the enforcement is heavily armed

Twenty minutes later, whistles punctuated another moment of tension up the road.

Whistles are a new community tactic to alert people that ICE agents are in the area. Other innovative tactics include using the Waze Satnav system to report “icy streets” – in August.

On 16th Street, a small group of locals – commuters and local business owners among them – had gathered around a car with blacked-out windows. They had identified ICE agents inside.

An officer from the city’s Metropolitan Police arrived and asked what the commotion was about. The crowd told him about the ICE agents. He looked into the car, nodded, and retreated. He, too, was then jeered.

Read more:
The flashpoint in Trump’s deportations blitz

Sky's Mark Stone had no luck in his attempts to ask questions about what he witnessed
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Sky’s Mark Stone had no luck in his attempts to ask questions about what he witnessed

‘This is not what we’re about’

In these neighbourhoods of overwhelmingly Democratic, left-leaning Washington DC, the mood feels edgy; not a tipping point, but creeping towards one, for sure.

“I don’t feel safer, I feel more policed,” one woman said.

A day later, a few streets away, another raid. Officers were staged at the entrance to an apartment block. Heavily armed, they appeared to be from various agencies and the city police too.

“I’m sick, this is not this country, this is not what we’re about. We’re a quiet community. It’s unbelievable we’ve come to this, unbelievable,” a woman of retirement age told me as she watched the commotion.

‘They are brutalising people’

When questioned, the officers wouldn’t confirm what their operation was about, but no one was detained and in the end they were literally shouted out of the street by locals. The anger was visceral.

“I’ve lived here for 47 years, and I’ve never seen anything like this,” another woman said.

“They are occupying the city and our neighbourhoods. They are brutalising people, they are taking people for no reason. We don’t want them here. This is a Donald Trump dominance performance.”

It is more than a performance, though.

If this is the plan for Democrat-run cities across the country, well then the weeks ahead look divisive indeed.

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