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By definition, midterm elections in America occur two years into a presidential term with two years to go until the next general election.

They have no direct bearing on who is the president of the United States residing in the White House.

The midterms are about electing officials to Congress – the other, legislative, branch of the US government and to offices in each of the 50 states, the constitutional counterbalance to the centralised federal government in Washington DC.

In the excitement of poring over the many results from a massive nationwide vote involving millions of people, it is worth remembering that extrapolating from the midterms is a very unreliable way of predicting who will be the next president or even who will be the main nominees in the race.

Recent history shows how wrong snap judgments can be. Two years out from the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump was widely regarded as an unlikely joke candidate. At a similar point ahead of 2008, conventional wisdom was leaning towards Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani as nominees.

Quite different people, Barack Obama and John McCain, actually fought it out in the end. In 1994 Newt Gingrich led the “Republican Revolution” with his “contract with America” smashing the ambitions of Bill Clinton’s Democrats. He was Time magazine’s man of the year and tipped as a future president. In spite of numerous bids for the White House, he never came close.

The final results are not yet in but there are already some pointers as to the political mood in the US.

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The “expected” red wave was more of a ripple. There is almost always a backlash against a first-term president’s party in the midterms but the Democrats fared much better under President Joe Biden than they did under Mr Obama or Mr Clinton.

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Surge of support for Trump’s Republicans fails to take off

As Dominic Waghorn has reported here, Republican candidates endorsed by Donald Trump fared significantly worse than those who steered clear of him.

Only a minority of Republican candidates were interested in campaigning on “the big steal” – the false claim that Mr Trump really won re-election in 2020, Republican analysts argue that the party is now pivoting away from Donald Trump’s obsession.

Dr Mehmet Oz the Republican senate candidate in Pennsylvania pointedly phoned Democrat John Fetterman to concede defeat. Mr Trump is said to be furious with his wife Melania for endorsing the TV doctor. Fox News played Mr Trump down on election night and Rupert Murdoch’s main US newspapers, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Post, have become heavily critical of him. The Post dubbed the former President “Trumpty Dumpty” this week.

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‘Red wave’ fails to show

Control of the evenly-split US Senate is down to three states which also played a key role in determining the outcome of the 2020 presidential contest: Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. Given that Republicans have not polled as strongly as they would have liked, the special election run-off in Georgia on 6 December will be key. Under state law the winner has to take over 50% of the vote. In the first round the Democratic incumbent pastor Raphael Warnock had 49.2% and his Republican opponent, former football star Herschel Walker, had 48.7%.

From next January the lower house of Congress, the House of Representatives, will flip from Democrat to Republican. Kevin McCarthy will replace Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, the third-highest elected office in the US. A Republican House will most likely prevent President Biden from passing any further significant legislation. The investigation into the 6 January 2021 assault on the Capitol and Mr Trump’s role in it will probably be shelved.

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Donald Trump may soon be yesterday’s news as America’s right-wing media turns to Ron DeSantis
Could Florida governor Ron DeSantis thwart Donald Trump’s fresh run for the White House?

The stand-out winner of the night was 44-year-old Ron DeSantis, the Republican Governor of Florida who won re-election by a landslide in what is now Mr Trump’s home state. Another name to watch is the high profile and ambitious JD Vance, the best-selling author of Hillbilly Elegy. He fought a poor campaign but still held the Ohio Senate seat comfortably for the Republicans.

Immediately before the election, the assumption was that the race in 2024 would be a rerun of 2020: Biden v Trump. Both men had already indicated their intention of standing again, though neither had yet made a formal declaration. If he (all men so far) put his name forward, an incumbent president such as Mr Biden would not normally be seriously challenged by his own party. The Trump machine looked to be unbeatable.

Trump vs DeSantis battle anticipated

The Democrats’ relatively mild drubbing this week would seem to cement Mr Biden in place. But there is now a question mark over Mr Trump in spite of his insistence in advance that a poor Republican showing would have nothing to do with him. A battle for the nomination between Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis is widely anticipated. Things are unlikely to be so straight forward.

Mr Trump faces a busy few days. On Monday he is under subpoena to appear before the House January 6 Inquiry – though whether he will turn up is a matter of conjecture. On Tuesday he has promised to make a “very big announcement” that he said will be “perhaps” the biggest in American history. This is widely expected to be the official launch of his bid for re-election in 2024. Win or lose, campaigning is a money maker for Trump.

Becoming president would be the best escape from the various civil and legal law suits engulfing him. But the Republican hierarchy do not want him to be their candidate and pressure is mounting on him to delay. If he pulls out, Mr DeSantis will definitely put himself forward. However, there would be bound to be a contested primary season for the Republican nomination, with no certainty that Mr DeSantis would emerge the winner. Mr DeSantis’ prospects are even more uncertain if he gets locked in a bloody contest with Mr Trump, with others putting themselves forward as compromise candidates.

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The answer to the Republicans’ candidate quandary may determine whether Joe Biden, who will celebrate his 80th birthday on 20 November, really bids for the democratic nomination and a second term. Analysing the data, the Republican pollster Frank Luntz explains that Mr Biden is the only Democratic nominee likely to beat Mr Trump (he’s already done it once) but, paradoxically, any other Republican nominee would beat Mr Biden. If it is not going to be against Mr Trump, the Democrats would be wise to go with someone other than Mr Biden.

Fallibility of opinion polls

The fallibility of American opinion polls further adds to the uncertainty. The polls and the data mining aggregators who work from them, such as Nate Silver’s 538.com, had another bad night this week. John Della Volpe, the head of polling at the Kennedy School at Harvard University, did much better foreseeing the mere “red ripple”.

He points out that most of the commercial polls are commissioned by right-leaning entities and have tended to show the Republicans doing better than turns out to be the case. In particular their samples have failed to reflect the high level engagement of younger voters and their centrist tendencies, most likely boosted by the Supreme Court’s ruling against abortion.

All this means that we don’t yet know what the political battleground will be in 2024 and we can’t be sure who the “frontrunners” will be. It is unwise to read too much into the midterms or to pay much attention to the same pundits who told us that President Trump in 2024 was practically a locked-on certainty. The confusing wonders of democracy really were on the ballot this November.

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Four in hospital as police deal with active shooter at Florida university

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Four in hospital as police deal with active shooter at Florida university

Four people are in hospital as police deal with an active shooter on a university campus in Florida.

Videos showed people running through traffic, fleeing the scene, around the time of the shooting at the student union at Florida State University’s campus in Tallahassee.

Local police were “on the scene or on the way”, according to an alert sent out by the school and students have been told to “shelter in place”.

The FBI is also said to be responding to the incident.

Florida State University students wait for news amid an active shooter incident at the school.
Pic: AP/Kate Payne
Image:
Florida State University students wait for news amid an active shooter incident at the school.
Pic: AP/Kate Payne

In a statement, Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare said it was “actively receiving and caring for patients” from the incident.

“At this time, details are still unfolding, and we do not yet have specific information to share. However, we want to assure the community that our teams are fully mobilised and prepared to provide the highest level of care and support to all those affected,” it added.

President Donald Trump said he was fully briefed on the incident and described it as “a shame”.

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He added: “It’s a horrible thing. Horrible that things like this take place.”

Florida governor Ron DeSantis, in a statement posted on X, said: “Our prayers are with our FSU family and state law enforcement is actively responding.”

Ambulances, fire trucks and police vehicles raced to the campus around midday local time (5pm UK time) on Thursday.

As students streamed away from the area of the student union in their hundreds, some were visibly emotional and others were glued to their phones.

Dozens later gathered near the university’s music school, waiting for news.

Florida State University student Daniella Streety told NBC News of the chaos that unfolded at the scene.

She remained on lockdown in a campus building and said: “I did see them carry out one student in what looked like on a stretcher and kept them in the road until an ambulance was able to pick them up.”

Joshua Sirmans, 20, was in the university’s main library when he said alarms began going off warning of an active shooter.

Police escorted him and other students out of the library with their hands over their heads, he said.

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US judge warns Trump administration could be in criminal contempt over El Salvador deportations

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White House rages at 'appalling' attempt to return wrongly deported man from El Salvador

A US federal judge has warned that he could hold the Trump administration in contempt for violating his orders to turn around planes carrying deportees to El Salvador.

US District Judge James E. Boasberg said he had found “probable cause” to hold the administration in criminal contempt and warned he could refer the matter for prosecution if it does not “purge” its contempt.

If the government doesn’t purge the contempt, charges could be brought forward by the Justice Department, NBC News reported.

And if the executive-led Justice Department refused to prosecute the matter, Judge Boasberg said he would appoint another attorney to prosecute the contempt.

Mr Boasberg said the administration could “purge contempt by returning those who were sent to El Salvador prison, in violation of his order, to the US.

This, he said, “might avail themselves of their right to challenge their removability”.

“The Constitution does not tolerate wilful disobedience of judicial orders – especially by officials of a coordinate branch who have sworn an oath to uphold it,” the judge wrote.

Executive vs judicial

This marks a notable escalation in the ongoing tensions between the judicial and executive branches of the US government during Donald Trump’s second term.

Parts of the US president’s legislative programme have been halted by judges, as the administration strains against the restraints of the separation of powers.

Mr Trump previously called for Judge Boasberg to be impeached while the Justice Department claimed he overstepped his authority – both reflecting the administration’s attempts to overcome perceived obstacles to the implementation of its agenda.

Mr Trump’s administration has also argued it did not violate any orders.

It claimed the judge didn’t include a turnaround directive in his written order and said the planes had already left the US by the time the order came down.

‘Administrative error’

At the heart of the legal wrangling is Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a man who was sent to El Salvador by the Trump administration in March despite an immigration court order preventing his deportation.

Washington acknowledged that Mr Garcia was deported due to an “administrative error”.

The US Supreme Court has called on the administration to facilitate his return, upholding a court order by Judge Paula Xinis, but Trump officials have claimed that Mr Garcia has ties to the MS-13 gang.

Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Pic: CASA / AP
Image:
Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Pic: CASA/AP

Mr Garcia’s lawyers have argued there is no evidence of this.

This all comes after El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele visited the White House earlier this week.

During his time with Mr Trump, Mr Bukele said that he would not return Mr Garcia, likening it to smuggling “a terrorist into the United States.”

The US and El Salvador presidents in the Oval Office.
Pic: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque
Image:
The US and El Salvador presidents in the Oval Office.
Pic: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque

Along with Mr Garcia, the Trump administration has deported hundreds of people, mostly Venezuelans, whom it claims are gang members without presenting evidence and without a trial.

Democrat senator travels to El Salvador

Meanwhile, Democratic senator Chris Van Hollen arrived in El Salvador on Wednesday, saying he would seek a meeting with the country’s officials to secure Mr Garcia’s release.

“I just arrived in San Salvador a little while ago and look forward to meeting with the US embassy team to discuss Mr. Abrego Garcia’s release,” Mr Van Hollen said on social media.

Deportations have been an important part of Mr Trump’s second term, with him being vocal on the issue throughout the campaign trail and into office.

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Gene Hackman: Bodycam footage of actor’s home released by investigators into his death

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Gene Hackman: Bodycam footage of actor's home released by investigators into his death

Body camera footage of Gene Hackman’s home has been released by authorities investigating the deaths of the actor and his wife.

The video captured by Santa Fe County Sheriff’s Office shows officers inside and outside the property in northern New Mexico, with a German shepherd barking at some points as they carry out their search.

Actor Gene Hackman arrives and his wife, Betsy Arakawa pictured in 2003.
File pic: AP/Mark J. Terrill
Image:
Hackman and Arakawa pictured in 2003. Pic: AP/ Mark J Terrill

The bodies of Hackman, 95, and his wife, Betsy Arakawa, 65, were found in separate rooms of their home on 26 February.

“He’s guarding her,” a male officer can be heard saying, about the dog found alive at the home. “He seems pretty friendly.”

There is another “10-7 dog” – meaning the pet is dead – “round the corner in the kennel”, the officer says.

Authorities also released a report detailing some of Arakawa’s last emails and internet searches, revealing she was investigating information on flu-like symptoms, COVID-19, and breathing techniques before she died.

An image taken Santa Fe County Sheriff's Office during their investigation and search of the home of Gene Hackman and his wife Betsy Arakawa. Pic: Santa Fe County Sheriff via AP
Image:
Pic: Santa Fe County Sheriff via AP

Rat nests and dead rodents were also discovered in several outbuildings around the property, an environmental assessment by the New Mexico Department of Health revealed.

The inside of the home was clean and showed no evidence of rodent activity.

In March, a medical investigator concluded Arakawa died from hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, a rare infectious disease that can be caused by exposure to rodents.

Hackman had advanced Alzheimer’s and died from heart disease about a week later, with data from his pacemaker last registering on 18 February.

Read more:
What is hantavirus?
The reluctant star who turned his back on Hollywood

Law enforcement officials outside Gene Hackman and Betsy Arakawa's home the day after they were found dead. Pic: AP/Roberto Rosales
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Law enforcement officials pictured outside the property in Santa Fe the day after Hackman and Arakawa’s bodies were found. Pic: AP/Roberto Rosales

According to the records now released by the county sheriff’s office, Arakawa was researching medical conditions related to COVID-19 and flu between 8 February and the morning of 12 February.

In one email to a masseuse, she said Hackman had woken on 11 February with flu or cold-like symptoms and that she wanted to reschedule an appointment “out of an abundance of caution”.

Search history on the morning of 12 February showed she was looking into a medical concierge service in Santa Fe. Investigators said there was a call to the service which lasted under two minutes, and a follow-up call from them later that afternoon was missed.

The police footage shows officers checking the home and finding no signs of forced entry or other suspicious signs.

An image taken Santa Fe County Sheriff's Office during their investigation and search of the home of Gene Hackman and his wife Betsy Arakawa. Pic: Santa Fe County Sheriff via AP
Image:
Pic: Santa Fe County Sheriff via AP

What is hantavirus?

HPS, commonly known as hantavirus disease, is a respiratory disease caused by hantaviruses – which are carried by several types of rodents.

It is a rare condition in the US, with most cases concentrated in the western states of New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado and Utah. This was the first confirmed case in New Mexico this year.

There has so far been no confirmation about any potential link by authorities between the rodents and the hantavirus disease that claimed Arakawa’s life.

Who was Gene Hackman?

FILE - Actor Gene Hackman, winner of Best Supporting Actor at academy awards in March 1993. Hackman will turn 80 years on Jan. 30, 2010. (AP Photo, File)
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Pic: AP 1993

Hackman was a former Marine whose work on screen began with an uncredited TV role in 1961.

Acting became his career for many years, and he went on to play villains, heroes and antiheroes in more than 80 films spanning a range of genres.

He was best known by many for playing evil genius Lex Luthor in the Superman films in the late 1970s and ’80s, and won Oscars for his performances in The French Connection and Unforgiven.

After roles in The Royal Tenenbaums, Behind Enemy Lines and Runaway Jury in the 2000s, he left acting behind after his final film, Welcome To Mooseport.

He and Arakawa, a pianist, had been together since the mid-1980s.

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