The world’s eight billionth resident has been born today, according to projections by the United Nations Population Division.
The global population has reached eight billion – three times the size it was in 1950 – and although there are more people on Earth than ever before because we’re living longer, population growth is at its slowest rate in more than 70 years.
In 2020 the global population growth rate fell below 1%. This is largely due to a reduced birth rate, with women having fewer children due to widespread contraception and better education and mobility for women and girls.
The global population is also getting older – 10% are aged over 65, and this will increase to 16% by 2050.
By 2050 the number of over-65s will be twice that of those under five.
Where is it growing the fastest?
The two fastest-growing regions in the world are East and Southeast Asia, home to 2.3 billion people, and central and South Asia, which has 2.1 billion people.
China and India are the joint-most populated countries in the world, with 1.4 billion people each.
Based on UN projections, India will surpass China for the first time next year.
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More than half of the projected increase up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to contribute more than half of the increase anticipated through 2050.
The biggest increases will come specifically from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania, with both populations doubling in the next 30 years.
Elsewhere in Africa, the biggest surges will be in Nigeria, Ethiopia and Egypt.
In Asia outside India and China, the biggest growth will happen in Pakistan and the Philippines.
More generally, 46 of the least-developed countries in the world will have the fastest-growing populations between now and 2050.
Most of this growth (two-thirds) will be driven by what has already happened – and the youthful structure of the population.
Where is the population shrinking?
The world population is growing more slowly than it has in decades due to long periods of low fertility.
More than two-thirds of people live in countries where women have 2.1 children or fewer.
This is roughly the level that would produce zero growth worldwide.
The population of 61 countries will decrease by 1% or more between now and 2050 – either due to decreased birth rates or increased levels of migration.
The war in Ukraine is having a huge impact on its population size – with projections showing it will have lost more than 20% of its population by 2050.
Four other central and eastern European countries – Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and Serbia – will experience similar population decreases in the next three decades.
Overall life expectancy fell from 72.8 before the pandemic in 2019 to 71 last year.
COVID’s impact was not the same for every region, however.
Central and southern Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean were hit the most – with life expectancy decreasing by around three years.
But in Australia and New Zealand, which both shut their borders and pursued a “zero COVID” policy for most of the pandemic, life expectancy increased by 1.2 years due to a decreased risk of dying from other causes during successive lockdowns.
Coronavirus may have resulted in some short-term reductions in pregnancies, but there was no evidence of an overall decline, UN experts said.
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Overpopulation in Nigeria
What’s next?
The global population will continue to grow – to around 8.5 billion people by 2030 and 9.7 billion by 2050.
It will start to peak at around 10.4 billion people in the 2080s and remain at that level until 2100.
Australia, New Zealand, the rest of Oceania, North Africa and Western Asia will still be growing in population by the end of this century.
But the rest of the world, including Europe and North America, will have reached their peak and started to decline before the year 2100.
Antonio Guterres, the UN secretary-general, said of the eight billion milestone: “This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognise our common humanity and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates.”
But he added: “At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another.”
Sir Keir Starmer has condemned Russia’s Christmas Day bombardment of Ukraine, saying the hail of missiles and drones was “bloody and brutal”.
The prime minister lamented that there was “no respite even at Christmas” for Ukrainians, who spent the morning sheltering in metro stations as bombs rained down on their cities.
Russia’s defence ministry said it carried out a “massive strike” on energy facilities that it claimed supported Kyiv’s military.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy also condemned the attack, saying Russia was seeking to plunge his people into darkness.
“Putin deliberately chose Christmas,” he said on Wednesday. “What could be more inhumane?”
In the east, Kremlin forces claim to have captured the settlement of Vidrodzhennia as they continue to make territorial gains.
‘Christmas gift to Ukraine’
Regions across the country reported missile and drone strikes as Ukrainians spend another holiday season facing attacks on their power infrastructure.
Kyiv’s military said it downed 59 Russian missiles and 54 drones, but others made it through their air defences.
Strikes in Kharkiv wounded six people and left half a million in the region without heating, as temperatures hovered just a few degrees above zero.
“Kharkiv is under massive missile fire. A series of explosions rang out in the city and there are still ballistic missiles flying in the direction of the city. Stay in safe places,” Kharkiv mayor Ihor Terekhov said.
In the capital, residents faced blackouts while in Dnipro region one person was killed.
Dnipropetrovsk Governor Serhiy Lysa said the Russian army is trying to destroy the region’s power system.
Ukrainians, marking their second Christmas since changing to celebrate on the same day as the West, sheltered in underground metro stations as the deadly salvo of missiles soared towards them.
“Russia’s Christmas gift to Ukraine: more than 70 missiles and 100 drones,” US ambassador Bridget Brink said. “For the third holiday season, Russia weaponises winter.”
In the east, Ukrainian soldiers celebrated Christmas by candlelight as they ate together near the frontline.
Fighting continues to be tough in Donbas, as Russian forces push forward and make steady gains.
On Wednesday, Russia’s defence ministry said its forces had taken the settlement of Vidrodzhennia.
Across the border, in Russia’s Kursk region, four people were killed and five injured in the town of Lgov after Ukrainian shelling, the region’s acting governor said.
“A five-storey residential building, two single-storey residential buildings and a single-storey beauty salon were seriously damaged,” Alexander Khinshtein wrote on Telegram.
Pope calls for peace talks
In the Vatican, Pope Francis mentioned the war in Ukraine directly during his Christmas Day message, calling for “the boldness needed to open the door to negotiation”.
Speaking to thousands of people from the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica, he said: “May the sound of arms be silenced in war-torn Ukraine!”
He also called for “gestures of dialogue and encounter, in order to achieve a just and lasting peace”.
Azerbaijan Airlines said the aircraft had been forced to make an emergency landing at Aktau airport.
Russia’s aviation watchdog said in a statement that preliminary information suggested the pilot had decided to make an emergency landing after a bird strike.
Ramzan Kadyrov, an ally of Vladimir Putin and leader of Chechnya, expressed his condolences and said those being treated in hospital were in an extremely serious condition and that he and others would pray for their rapid recovery.
The sense of hollowness of the Church of the Nativity is deeper than absent tourists.
The chants and prayers are pain-stricken and desperate.
Down in the manger by the enshrined spot where baby Jesus was said to be born, a priest solemnly swings incense into the corners.
There is no beautifully-lit tree in the square outside for the second year in a row. Even in their homes, the Palestinian Christian community in Bethlehem is struggling to celebrate.
The empty spaces and lack of tourism are the shadow of 14 months of war in Gaza and a daily reminder of the ongoing devastation.
And around their family homes, Israeli settlements in the West Bank – illegal under international law – are inching closer.
‘Our country is shrinking’
“Normally we spend Christmas in Bethlehem and Jerusalem but this year there are no celebrations because of what is happening with the war. It is not nice to celebrate while people are dying,” says Alice Kisiya.
Alice is from Beit Jala, Bethlehem. For five years, her family have waged legal battles with settlers over their generational home.
“Each Christmas we had demolition because each time they come and demolish. Last year, we were celebrating Christmas there and they came and demolished our small tent,” says Alice.
She and her family are waiting for a Supreme Court ruling in January on whether they can return.
“Our country is shrinking. As Palestinian Christians, we cannot really have our freedom to move freely and it’s getting worse.”
Her words resonate as we drive along the West Bank wall on the edges of Bethlehem.
A stark reminder of the political divide that is tearing through the Holy Land.
‘It seems destiny of Holy Land is to stay divided’
On the other side of the wall from the sacred site where Jesus was born is where he was crucified in Jerusalem.
We hear that the procession of the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem is soon arriving through a checkpoint inside the wall into Bethlehem to the Church of Nativity.
A crowd of eager Catholics are waiting for him by Rachel’s Tomb, a sacred site for Orthodox Jews.
School children visiting the tomb are ushered off the street by elders aware of the arriving procession.
They start to sing defiantly as older students are forcefully removed from the road by Israeli police.
There is a hushed sense of anticipation and awe from those waiting for Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa to arrive from the Church of Holy Sepulchre – where Jesus was crucified – to the Church of the Nativity, where he was born in refuge.
“This is an important more than a thousand-year-old tradition,” says Tony Marcos, Dean of the Catholic Action Foundation.
As a Palestinian resident of the West Bank, Tony is not permitted to make the procession between the two holy sites.
“It seems the destiny of this Holy Land is to stay divided and these are difficult times we are living in,” he adds.
“Christmas is the season of love and the season of hope. There is big pain and there is instability – a lot of sacrifices and a lot of blood,” he says.
‘We want next year to be full of light’
The anxiety seems to dissipate as Cardinal Pizzaballa arrives.
He shakes hands with a queue of people eager to get close to the leader of the Church they cannot visit.
“This Christmas, we want people not to lose hope. It is possible to break down the hatred, the division, the contempt and the lack of justice and dignity we are experiencing here,” says Cardinal Pizzaballa.
“The prayer is to raise our gaze and to look forward, not backwards. We want the next year to be full of light – lighted in the darkness.”