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Two people are reported to have been killed in Poland near the Ukrainian border by a Russian missile.

It didn’t take long for talk of Article 5 to surface – the part of the North Atlantic Treaty that binds all NATO members to protect the country that has been attacked.

But going straight for Article 5 skips a number of important steps that must be taken.

What is the next step?

General Sir Richard Barrons, former commander of UK Joint Forces Command, told Sky News: “All eyes will now be on the site of the explosion, and experts in the technology will be looking for the missile debris and other debris to identify what it was that killed these two poor souls.

“And then when they’ve identified what it was, they can start to investigate how it got there and what was behind it.

“And really only when that is clearer – and clear, in my view – should the North Atlantic Council and NATO members take a definitive position on this.

“Because, to do so beforehand would imply they were prepared to decide on something really significant in the absence of actually knowing the facts.”

‘Crisis situation’ as NATO responds – follow live reaction

General Sir Richard said many of these facts will probably be established in daylight – it was late when the explosion happened – and he added that bits of the missile can be found and radar tracks through the sky can also be examined.

Lord Richard Dannatt, former chief of the general staff, explained to Sky News the importance of this stage, saying: “If we take – or anybody takes – decisions on poor information then we’re bound to make poor decisions.”

So what happens while the investigation is under way?

Lord Dannatt said that one of the most important things at this stage is that the countries involved keep talking, saying: “The open channels and back channels should be being worked vigorously at the present moment to find out not just what happened but why it happened.”

At the same time, the other vital thing is what Lord Dannatt and General Sir Richard described as “cool heads and facts”.

Lord Dannatt said: “Establishing what has happened is really important and then cool heads are needed to analyse what our response should be.

“At this stage, we should be very, very cautious.”

General Sir Richard added: “We need to know what happened, what the intent was behind it and then people should take a view on it.

“I think an international junior school football match whirring up the rhetoric around this is deeply unhelpful.”

Read more:
Russian missile’ kills two in Poland
Missile strike on Poland may be an attempt to test NATO

What is likely to have happened?

Lord Dannatt said there are two possibilities – a Russian error or the Russians testing NATO’s response.

He said: “Modern technology is pretty accurate, so it’s quite difficult to explain a way that this might have been an accident.

“If it wasn’t an accident and it was a test of the West’s response, that’s something that has got to be thought through very, very carefully.

“Cool heads are required to make sure this appalling war does not get escalated as a result of miscalculation.”

General Sir Richard said: “We should recognise it’s probably unlikely Russia would choose to target a random grain silo in a village with a population of just 400 to start a war with NATO.

“But if Russia has decided to do that, then this world of ours is taking a turn that no one could have imagined even a month ago.

“It’s far more likely that a missile has gone rogue – it has malfunctioned or been deflected – and ended up in Poland with tragic consequences.”

What is Article 5 and why are we even talking about it?

Article 5 is perhaps the best-known part of the North Atlantic Treaty – the collective defence principle that means an attack against one member is considered an attack on all.

It was not invoked when Russia invaded Ukraine, because Ukraine is not a NATO member. But Poland is a NATO member, so anything that is found to have been an attack on Poland could possibly reach the stage of Article 5.

So does that mean the UK and other NATO countries have to go to war now?

Hold your horses and breathe. We’ve already talked about the need for an investigation. But even then, before Article 5 comes Article 4.

Article 4 says: “The parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened.”

Late on Tuesday night, NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu told Sky News that the alliance’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, will chair an emergency meeting of the 30 member states in Brussels on Wednesday.

Reuters news agency reported that this meeting is at the request of Poland on the basis of Article 4.

The report cited two European diplomats, one of whom said the alliance would act cautiously and needed time to verify exactly what had happened.

It’s not clear what form this stage will take or how long it might last.

Any country can invoke Article 4 and NATO’s own website says that all decisions are made by consensus.

Article 4 does not always have to lead to NATO entering a conflict.

Has Article 4 been invoked before?

Since NATO was created in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked seven times and you’ll see below that all-out war is not the default option:
• On 24 February 2022, Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia requested to hold consultations under Article 4 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine
• On 26 July 2015, Turkey made the same request following terror attacks and to inform allies of the measures it was taking
• On 3 March 2014, Poland invoked it as tensions increased in Ukraine as a result of Russia’s aggressive actions
• In 2012, Turkey invoked it twice – once in June after one of its fighter jets was shot down by Syrian air defence and in October when five Turkish civilians were killed by Syrian shelling. In November, NATO agreed to Turkey’s request for the deployment of Patriot missiles as a defensive measure
• On 10 February 2002, Turkey invoked the article as a result of the armed conflict in neighbouring Iraq. NATO agreed a package of defensive measures and conducted Operation Display Deterrence

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Ukraine War: Vladimir Putin open to peace talks in Slovakia

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Ukraine War: Vladimir Putin open to peace talks in Slovakia

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he would be open to peace talks with Ukraine in Slovakia “if it comes to that”. 

Mr Putin said Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, who this week visited the Kremlin, had offered his country as a location for negotiations as the war in Ukraine nears the three-year mark.

The Russian president said the Slovakian authorities “would be happy to provide their own country as a platform for negotiations”.

“We are not opposed, if it comes to that. Why not? Since Slovakia takes such a neutral position,” Mr Putin said, adding he was resolved to end the conflict in Ukraine, which started with a land, air and sea invasion of Russia’s smaller neighbour in February 2022.

Follow the latest updates on the war in Ukraine

Ukraine is yet to comment on Slovakia’s offer but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly criticised the country, which borders Ukraine, for the friendly tone Mr Fico has struck towards Russia since his return to power after an election in 2023.

Mr Fico has been critical of EU support for Ukraine, where millions have been displaced since Mr Putin’s decision to launch a “special military operation” to “denazify” and “demilitarise” the 37 million-strong country.

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Mr Zelenskyy on North Korea and Slovakian PM in Moscow

Mr Putin has repeatedly said Russia is open to talks to end the conflict with Kyiv, but that it would nevertheless achieve its goals in Ukraine.

He has previously demanded Ukraine withdraw its bid to join NATO and asked it to recognise Russia’s gains. Both Kyiv and the West have rejected those demands.

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But while Mr Zelenskyy had for most of the conflict insisted Ukraine would keep fighting until it regained control of its territories, his position on negotiations now appears to have shifted.

In an interview with Sky News, Mr Zelenskyy suggested a ceasefire deal could be struck if the Ukrainian territory he controls could be taken “under the NATO umbrella”.

This would then allow him to negotiate the return of the rest later “in a diplomatic way”.

The Ukrainian leader admitted last week his forces would be unable to recapture any territories occupied by Russia in the east of Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula.

While Kyiv would never recognise Russia’s rule, he said diplomacy is the only option to get Mr Putin to withdraw his army.

The war in Ukraine has taken a devastating toll on Russia too. UK government and military analysis estimates that Russia has lost around half a million troops killed or wounded in Ukraine.

Such is the pressure on manpower that The Kremlin turned to one of its remaining allies, North Korea, to provide additional forces.

It’s thought 10,000 to 12,000 troops were sent in October to fight alongside the Russian military in the fighting in the Kursk region.

However it’s suggested their lack of combat experience has resulted in heavy losses, with Mr Zelenskyy saying earlier this week that 3,000 North Korean troops have already been killed and wounded.

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Donald Trump: President-elect targets Canada, Greenland and Panama Canal in Christmas message

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Donald Trump: President-elect targets Canada, Greenland and Panama Canal in Christmas message

Donald Trump has suggested the US could take control of Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal in a series of Christmas Day social media posts.

The president-elect wished a merry Christmas to all on his Truth Social platform, “including to the wonderful soldiers of China, who are lovingly, but illegally, operating the Panama Canal”.

In the lengthy posts, Mr Trump referred to the American lives lost during the canal’s construction and said the US “puts in billions of dollars in ‘repair’ money, but will have absolutely nothing to say about ‘anything’.”

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Panama Canal, strange sounds and Elon Musk

He also mocked Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “governor” and again suggested the country could be turned into a US state – following similar comments made in recent weeks.

“If Canada was to become our 51st state, their taxes would be cut by more than 60%, their businesses would immediately double in size, and they would be militarily protected like no other country anywhere in the world,” he wrote.

FILE - A cargo ship traverses the Agua Clara Locks of the Panama Canal in Colon, Panama, Sept. 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix, File)
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A cargo ship traverses the Panama Canal in Colon, Panama. Pic: AP

In another post, Mr Trump, 78, said he had encouraged former ice hockey star Wayne Gretzky to run for prime minister but he “had no interest”.

He also addressed “the people of Greenland, which is needed by the United States for national security purposes and, who want the US to be there, and we will!”

It comes after Mr Trump renewed the call he made during his first term in office for the US to buy Greenland from Denmark.

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The world’s largest island, which sits between the Atlantic and Arctic oceans, is 80% covered by an ice sheet and is home to a large US military base. Greenland gained autonomy from Denmark in 1979.

The island’s Prime Minister Mute Egede has insisted Greenland is not for sale.

Mr Trump has also previously threatened to retake control of the Panama Canal, accusing Panama of charging excessive rates to use the crucial trade passage and warning of potential Chinese influence.

Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino previously said his country’s independence was non-negotiable and that China had no influence on the canal’s administration.

The canal is a critical waterway for world trade, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and allows ships to avoid lengthy and hazardous journeys around the southernmost tip of South America by cutting through the middle of the Americas.

After the ambitious project was opened in 1914, the canal and surrounding territory were controlled by the US until an agreement with Panama in 1977 paved the way for it to return to full Panamanian control in 1999.

China does not control the canal but a subsidiary of Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings has long managed two ports at the canal’s Caribbean and Pacific entrances.

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Syrian equestrian champion tells of 21-year prison ordeal after beating Bashar al Assad’s brother in competition

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Syrian equestrian champion tells of 21-year prison ordeal after beating Bashar al Assad's brother in competition

A Syrian former equestrian champion has told how he was jailed and tortured for 21 years after he beat Bashar al Assad’s older brother in a competition.

Adnan Kassar, once a celebrated figure in the country’s sports scene, spoke to Sky News about his ordeal for the first time following the fall of the Assad family regime‘s more than 50-year rule.

He won multiple gold medals and captained the national equestrian team in the late 1980s, with his career peaking in 1993 at the third International Equestrian Championship in Latakia, where his flawless performance secured victory for the team.

Mr Kassar was a close friend of Bassel al Assad but the achievement apparently drew the ire of his fellow equestrian, who had faltered during the competition.

Bassel was the heir apparent to the Syrian presidency before his death in a car crash in 1994 led to his brother Bashar al Assad‘s return from London, where he worked as an eye doctor, to be trained to take over when his father died.

Adnan Kassar (left) with Bassel al Assad
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Adnan Kassar (left) with Bassel al Assad

“The crowd lifted me on their shoulders. It was a moment of pure joy, but for Bassel, it wasn’t the same. That day marked the beginning of my nightmare,” he said.

Shortly after the event, Mr Kassar was arrested over vague accusations, which he said were fabricated as a result of Bassel’s resentment.

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He told how his detention turned into a prolonged ordeal marked by brutal interrogations and years of physical and psychological abuse.

“I was kept underground for six months, beaten constantly, and interrogated without end,” he said.

He was then transferred to the notorious Sednaya Prison, dubbed the “human slaughterhouse”, where he said “the torture only got worse”.

Former Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, his wife Aniseh, sons Maher, Bashar, Bassel, Majd and daughter Bushra (standing, L-R) pose for a family portrait.
Pic: Sana/Reuters
Image:
Former Syrian President Hafez al Assad, his wife Aniseh, sons Maher, Bashar, Bassel, Majd and daughter Bushra (standing, L-R). Pic: Sana/Reuters

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Inside Syria’s notorious ‘human slaughterhouse’

Mr Kassar said his treatment became even more severe after Bassel died.

“They blamed me for his death,” he said. “Every year on the anniversary of his passing, the torture intensified.”

He was also held for seven-and-a-half years at Tadmur Prison, which is also infamous for its inhumane conditions.

“They pierced my ear one morning and broke my jaw in the evening,” he recalled, saying acts as simple as praying were met with extreme punishment.

“For praying, they lashed me 1,000 times. My feet were torn apart, my bones exposed,” he said.

Many activists repeatedly raised his case following the outbreak of the Syrian revolution, which demanded the end of the Assad family rule.

But despite international appeals, his name was repeatedly excluded from amnesty decrees issued during his imprisonment.

Mr Kassar was finally released on 16 June 2014 after sustained pressure from international groups – nearly 22 years after his arrest.

Until now, he has remained silent about his imprisonment, fearing that any attempt to share his story could result in re-arrest and a return to prison, but has spoken out after Assad was toppled as Syrian president.

“After years of imprisonment, torture, and injustice, the revolution finally toppled the dictatorial regime,” he added.

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