The College Football Playoff selection committee will never ask coaches to run up the score, and the protocol specifically states that comparing games against a common opponent is done “without incenting margin of victory.”
That doesn’t mean they don’t appreciate a good old-fashioned drubbing.
With no changes to the top five of the third ranking on Tuesday night — No. 6 LSU and No. 7 USC earned small promotions at the expense of two-loss Oregon, which sank to 12 — Week 12 will provide several opportunities for the top contenders to leave no doubt they’re the better team.
In the case of No. 7 USC, now the committee’s top-ranked Pac-12 team, the one-loss Trojans can make a statement against a ranked rival in No. 16 UCLA — or eliminate the Pac-12 entirely with a loss. No team is better positioned to finish in the top four than No. 1 Georgia, which clinched the SEC East and will face LSU in the conference title game. A resounding win at Kentucky, though, would be another highlight the committee could point to if Georgia finishes as SEC runner-up.
No. 3 Michigan has a chance to continue to assert itself against unranked Illinois, a three-loss team that dropped out of the CFP Top 25 but could still win the Big Ten West. Tennessee and TCU, meanwhile, should cruise against unranked, unheralded conference opponents.
With only two weeks remaining in the regular season, here’s how Week 12 could potentially influence the committee’s evaluation on Selection Day, ranked in order of biggest impact:
Why it’s important: USC has no margin for error, and the road game against the ranked neighborhood rival is the next step in padding a résumé that could eventually trump one-loss Tennessee. USC is the Pac-12’s best hope at the playoff, and while many seem to assume No. 5 Tennessee will finish in the top four because the Vols are currently ranked ahead of USC, it will be much more complicated for the committee once the conference titles are added to the résumés and Tennessee doesn’t have one. USC could finish the season with three straight wins against ranked opponents — UCLA, Notre Dame and the Pac-12 title game opponent — which would put it squarely in the conversation for the top four.
2. TCU at Baylor
Why it’s important: No. 4 TCU didn’t get a bump this week, even though it played its best defense of the season, earned a road win against what used to be a CFP Top 25 team in Texas, and clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game. That indicates the Horned Frogs still don’t have much if any margin for error, and a loss on Saturday to an unranked Baylor (6-4) team that K-State just hammered 31-3 would be difficult to overcome on Selection Day. If TCU finishes as an undefeated Big 12 champion, the Horned Frogs will finish in the top four, but a loss to either Baylor or Iowa State along the way will put them in a precarious position. It helped TCU that No. 22 Oklahoma State popped back into the Top 25, giving the Frogs two wins against ranked opponents, along with Kansas State. That would probably match Clemson, if it finishes as a one-loss ACC champ, but they could both be looking up at USC or Tennessee — or both.
3. Tennessee at South Carolina
Why it’s important: If you’re not playing on championship weekend, you’re praying. Without a division or conference title, Tennessee needs to impress the committee every chance it gets, and a road win against a bowl-bound SEC opponent is another boost for the Vols — even if South Carolina isn’t ranked. Assuming the SEC and Big Ten champions are in the top four, Tennessee needs to be concerned about undefeated TCU and one-loss USC. The Vols will need their wins against LSU and Alabama to overcome not having a conference title. Where it could get interesting is if LSU wins the SEC, because Tennessee could then claim a resounding 40-13 win over the SEC champs — in Baton Rouge. The Vols can’t control any of that, though, so finishing the season in style is their best bet.
4. Miami at Clemson
Why it’s important: Clemson and the ACC remain in the worst playoff position of any of the Power 5 conferences, so the Tigers cannot afford to struggle at home against a mediocre Miami team. Clemson hasn’t exactly dominated anyone this season, either. The Tigers are 2-1 against teams currently ranked in the CFP, and have a point margin of minus-5 in those three games (wins against NC State and FSU, loss to Notre Dame). If the SEC, Big Ten and undefeated TCU are in, Clemson needs to worry about one-loss Tennessee. The Vols’ wins against LSU and Alabama would be more impressive than Clemson’s wins against NC State, Florida State and UNC. The Tigers could also lose a résumé debate with one-loss USC. Their bigger problem, though, is that they’re already looking up at two two-loss teams, including Alabama.
Why it’s important: No, Illinois isn’t ranked, but the three-loss Illini are at least above .500, and that’s more than you can say for most of Michigan’s opponents. Because the only ranked win so far is against Penn State, and only the Nittany Lions, Maryland, Iowa, Illinois and UConn have winning records, Michigan needs to make the most of every opportunity it has against a respectable team in case it doesn’t beat No. 2 Ohio State. It’s not impossible for the loser of The Game to finish in the top four, but it would be more difficult for the Wolverines. The selection committee isn’t thrilled with Michigan’s schedule, which at No. 82 is easily the worst of any CFP contender. Michigan could face Illinois twice if they win their respective divisions and meet in the Big Ten championship game.
6. Ohio State at Maryland
Why it’s important: The Buckeyes haven’t clinched the East yet, and if they don’t beat Michigan in the regular-season finale, there’s zero chance Ohio State will finish in the top four if it can’t win in College Park. Ohio State has already struggled this season in bad weather against 1-9 Northwestern. Another ugly win could raise some eyebrows in the committee meeting room if Ohio State doesn’t win its division. Saturday will also give a glimpse into the health status of their two star running backs, TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams, who have been injured and will be key to making a serious playoff run. Ohio State coach Ryan Day told reporters he wouldn’t know their statuses until Thursday. The selection committee considers injuries to key players, but so far, the Buckeyes have continued to piece it together but have relied heavily on their passing game.
7. Georgia at Kentucky
Why it’s important: What if LSU wins the SEC? It’s likely Georgia also finishes in the top four, but it’s not a guarantee — especially with Tennessee sitting there with a win over the SEC champs. The selection committee considers common opponents, and there is no example more critical than this one. Would the committee put in the team that lost to the SEC champs, and not the one that beat them? It’s not the only component, though. Head-to-head results also matter, and Georgia owned Tennessee in a game that was far more lopsided than the final score indicated. Georgia could continue to boost its case with a road win against a division opponent, and wouldn’t be a great look if the Bulldogs struggled against a team Vanderbilt just found a way to beat.
Anger index
There are just two weeks remaining in the regular season, which means we’ve got just three more sets of rankings to go before the committee retires to its underground lair to begin plotting against the Group of 5 for another offseason. This week’s CFP Top 25 offered few surprises. If anyone expected the committee to challenge conventional wisdom, they were sorely disappointed. But that doesn’t mean no one has cause for frustration in the aftermath of the release. This is college football, after all. Anger is the default setting. So, let’s get to this week’s Anger Index.
1. Washington Huskies (8-2)
We talk a lot about résumé when it comes to the College Football Playoff rankings, but we rarely define what exactly a good résumé looks like. So, here’s one suggestion:
• At least one win vs. a very good to great opponent (in the top 10% of FBS teams) to prove you can play with the best of the best.
• Three or more wins against good teams (in the top one-third of FBS teams) to prove you can survive the week-in, week-out grind.
• Two or more wins in true road games to show you can go into a hostile environment and hold your own.
Add those three things up, package them with a sterling win-loss record, and you’ve got a resumé worthy of playoff consideration.
So, who fits that bill right now?
As of this week, there are nine teams. Eight of them are ranked among the top nine teams in the country (No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan, No. 4 TCU, No. 5 Tennessee, No. 6 LSU, No. 8 Alabama and No. 9 Clemson).
The ninth team? That’d be the Washington Huskies, who check in at a less-than-exciting No. 17 in this week’s rankings, behind four other Pac-12 teams, including two-loss Utah at No. 10 and two-loss UCLA at No. 16 as well as two-loss Oregon, ranked five spots higher, despite losing last week at home to… Washington!
So, why does the committee dismiss the Huskies? It’s all about style points.
Washington led Michigan State 39-10 in the second half, but the game finished 39-28.
The Huskies were up 30-7 on Stanford at the end of the third quarter, but the Cardinal rallied late for a 40-22 loss.
They were up 42-24 on Arizona in the second half, too, but that game ended 49-39.
Essentially, Washington has gone up big then gone on autopilot, and the end result is a handful of wins against lackluster opponents that look entirely mediocre.
Well, that and the loss to Arizona State. How can anyone explain that one? A pick six? Three turnovers on downs? Some sort of voodoo curse? Your guess is as good as ours.
The first eight teams we included here are 23-0 against the bottom half of FBS teams (per FPI) and have an average margin of victory of 40 points.
Washington is 4-1 and has won by an average of 10 points.
But is it reasonable to judge Washington by what it did against Arizona State when we’ve witnessed the Huskies toppled Oregon in Eugene?
The Pac-12 is essentially a five-team stalemate right now, so a lot can change. But there’s really very little case for Washington as the fourth of those five teams, and if we simply look at the credits rather than the debits on the Huskies’ resumé, there’s actually a fairly strong case for putting them at the top of the heap.
2. The ACC
Clearly the committee is not a fan of the ACC, despite the league’s nine teams with six wins or better already. That pesky Notre Dame deal, which keeps leading to ugly losses for the league and no salvation from realignment from the Irish is a real problem.
This week’s rankings put the ACC in a bit of a bind. Clemson is ranked No. 9, the lowest by any of the supposed playoff contenders, a spot behind two-loss Alabama. Yes, Clemson’s résumé is far superior to, say, No. 7 USC. And yes, Clemson beat a Florida State team that beat two-loss LSU (ranked three spots higher). And yes, the Tigers rebounded nicely from the Notre Dame loss last week with an emphatic win over Louisville. But the committee isn’t buying, which means the Tigers can win out and still be at the bottom of the conference champion pecking order.
That’s doubly true for North Carolina. Here’s a quick comparison:
Team A: 9-1, No. 11 strength of record, No. 75 strength of schedule, road loss to ranked team, Heisman contender QB, shaky defense, former Big 12 coaching great at the helm, sort of a wine-and-cheese fan base.
Team B: 9-1, No. 10 strength of record, No. 65 strength of schedule, road loss to a ranked team, Heisman contender at QB, former Big 12 coaching great at the helm, sort of a wine-and-cheese fan base.
Not much separating the two, right? And yet, six spots separate Team A (North Carolina) from Team B (USC) in the rankings.
3. Everyone outside the Big Ten
Ohio State is No. 2. Michigan is No. 3. Both, by any eye test or statistical metric, are very good teams.
And yet, look at the résumés.
Michigan beat Penn State. It’s next best win is by a touchdown at home vs. Maryland. Seven of its 10 wins are against teams .500 or worse (and the other is Iowa, which… sorry, we fell asleep while typing Iowa.)
Ohio State beat Penn State. It’s next best win was a rather unimpressive affair in the opener against Notre Dame. In Big Ten play, the best team the Buckeyes have beaten is… sorry, we nodded off again thinking about Iowa.
So the lynchpin for both teams to be ranked in the top three is Penn State. And yet, Penn State’s best wins are Purdue, Auburn and Minnesota — all unranked.
None of this is to suggest Michigan and Ohio State aren’t two of the three best teams in the country. They may well be. But even before the season began, it was obvious the path to get here was just a two-step process: Beat Penn State, meet up in Columbus on Nov. 26.
Must be nice.
How a 12-team playoff would look
Everyone with the power to expand the College Football Playoff wants the field to grow to 12 teams in time for the 2024 season.
But currently, expansion is scheduled to begin in 2026. So while discussions continue on how to move up the timeline, we’re taking a look at how a 12-team playoff would look today based on the already-determined model released by the commissioners and presidents.
The field will be composed of the selection committee’s six highest-ranked conference champions and its next six highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn the top seeds and a first-round bye. The other eight teams will play in the first round, with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds on campus or at another site of their choice.
Here’s what the playoff would look like if the 12-team format were in place today:
Seeds with byes
1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. USC
Remaining seeds (conference champs in bold)
5. Michigan 6. Tennessee 7. LSU 8. Alabama 9. Clemson 10. Utah 11. Penn State 12. UCF
First-round games
No. 12 UCF at No. 5 Michigan No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Tennessee No. 10 Utah at No. 7 LSU No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Alabama
Quarterfinal games
No. 9 Clemson-No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Georgia No. 10 Utah-No. 7 LSU winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State No. 11 Penn State-No. 6 Tennessee winner vs. No. 3 TCU No. 12 UCF-No. 5 Michigan winner vs. No. 4 USC
Top résumés
1. Georgia
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 44 | SOR: 2 Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Tennessee 27-13 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at Kentucky Last playoff appearance: 2022 CFP National championship, No. 3 Georgia 33, No. 1 Alabama 18
No. 2 Ohio State
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 60 | SOR: 4 Biggest win: Oct. 29 at Penn State 44-31 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 vs. Michigan Last playoff appearance: 2021 CFP National Championship, No. 1 Alabama 52, No. 3 Ohio State 24
No. 3 Michigan
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 82 | SOR: 5 Biggest win: Oct. 15 vs. Penn State 41-17 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 at Ohio State Last playoff appearance: 2022 Playoff Semifinal at the Orange Bowl, No. 3 Georgia 34, No. 2 Michigan 11
No. 4 TCU
Record: 10-0 | SOS: 38 | SOR: 1 Biggest win: Oct. 22 vs. Texas 17-10 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at Baylor Last playoff appearance: Never
No. 5 Tennessee
Record: 9-1 | SOS: 3 | SOR: 3 Biggest win: Oct. 8 at LSU 40-13 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at South Carolina Last playoff appearance: Never
No. 6 LSU
Record: 8-2 | SOS: 11 | SOR: 7 Biggest win: Nov. 5 vs. Alabama 32-31 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 at Texas A&M Last playoff appearance: 2020 CFP National Championship: No. 1 LSU 42, No. 3 Clemson 25
No. 7 USC
Record: 9-1 | SOS: 65 | SOR: 10 Biggest win: Sept. 24 at Oregon State 17-14 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Saturday at UCLA Last playoff appearance: Never
No. 8 Clemson
Record: 9-1 | SOS: 55 | SOR: 8 Biggest win: Oct. 1 vs. NC State 30-20 Biggest remaining regular-season game: Nov. 26 vs. South Carolina Last playoff appearance: 2021 Playoff Semifinal at the Sugar Bowl, No. 3 Ohio State 49, No. 2 Clemson 28
The legal efforts to unionize college athletes appear to be running out of steam this month as a new Republican-led administration gets set to take over the federal agency in charge of ruling on employment cases.
A players’ advocacy group who filed charges against the NCAA, Pac-12 and USC that would have potentially opened the door for college players to form a union decided Friday to withdraw its complaint. Their case – which was first filed in February 2022 – was one of two battles against the NCAA taken up by the National Labor Relations Board in recent years. Earlier this week, an administrative law judge closed the other case, which was filed by men’s basketball players at Dartmouth.
The National College Players Association, which filed its complaint on behalf of USC athletes, said the recent changes in state law and NCAA rules that are on track to allow schools to directly pay their players starting this summer caused them to reconsider their complaint.
“[T]he NCPA believes that it is best to provide adequate time for the college sports industry to transition into this new era before football and basketball players employee status is ruled upon,” the organization’s founder Ramogi Huma wrote in the motion to withdraw.
The NCAA and its four power conferences agreed to the terms of a legal settlement this summer that will allow schools to spend up to roughly $20.5 million on direct payments to their athletes starting next academic year. The deal is scheduled to be finalized in April.
College sports leaders, including NCAA President Charlie Baker, have remained steadfast in their belief that athletes should not be considered employees of their schools during a period when college sports have moved closer to a professionalized model.
Some industry stakeholders believe that the richest schools in college sports will need to collectively bargain with athletes to put an end to the current onslaught of legal challenges facing the industry. Currently, any collective bargaining would have to happen with a formal union to provide sufficient legal protection. Some members of Congress say they are discussing the possibility of creating a special status for college sports that would allow collective bargaining without employment. However, Congressional aides familiar with ongoing negotiations told ESPN that influential Republican leaders in Congress are firmly against the idea.
The NLRB’s national board previously declined to make a ruling on whether college athletes should be employees in 2015 when a group of football players at Northwestern attempted to unionize. Jennifer Abruzzo, the agency’s leader during the Biden administration, signaled an interest in taking up the athletes’ fight to unionize early in her tenure. Abruzzo is not expected to remain as the NLRB’s general counsel during Donald Trump’s presidency.
Under Abruzzo, the agency’s regional offices pushed both the Dartmouth and USC cases forward in the past year. Dartmouth players got far enough to vote in favor of forming a union in March 2024, but were still in the appeals process when they decided to end their effort last month.
The only remaining legal fight over employee status in college sports is a federal lawsuit known as Johnson v. NCAA. That case claims the association is violating the Fair Labor Standards Act, which does not guarantee the right to unionize but instead would give athletes some basic employee rights such as minimum wage and overtime pay. That case is currently working its way through the legal process in the Third Circuit federal court.
Louisiana State Police have issued an arrest warrant for former LSU receiver Kyren Lacy, who is accused of causing a fatal crash that killed a 78-year-old man on Dec. 17 and then fleeing the scene without rendering aid or calling authorities.
Louisiana State Police said on Friday that Lacy will be charged with negligent homicide, felony hit-and-run and reckless operation of a vehicle.
Police said they have been in contact with Lacy and his attorney to turn himself in.
According to a news release from state police, Lacy was allegedly driving a 2023 Dodge Charger on Louisiana Highway 20 and “recklessly passed multiple vehicles at a high rate of speed by crossing the centerline and entering the northbound lane while in a designated no-passing zone.”
“As Lacy was illegally passing the other vehicles, the driver of a northbound pickup truck abruptly braked and swerved to the right to avoid a head-on collision with the approaching Dodge,” a Louisiana State Police news release said.
“Traveling behind the pickup was a 2017 Kia Cadenza whose driver swerved left to avoid the oncoming Dodge Charger. As the Kia Cadenza took evasive action to avoid impact with the Dodge, it crossed the centerline and collided head-on with a southbound 2017 Kia Sorento.”
Police alleged that Lacy, 24, drove around the crash scene and fled “without stopping to render aid, call emergency services, or report his involvement in the crash.”
Herman Hall, 78, of Thibodaux, Louisiana, who was a passenger in the Kia Sorrento, later died from injuries suffered in the crash, according to state police.
The drivers of the Cadenza and Sorento also sustained moderate injuries, according to police.
Lacy played two seasons at Louisiana before transferring to LSU in 2022. This past season, he had 58 catches for 866 yards with nine touchdowns and declared for the NFL draft on Dec. 19, two days after the crash.
College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — Tears welled in Drew Allar‘s eyes and began to fall down the Penn State quarterback’s face as he spoke about a game that was in his grasp, until it wasn’t.
Allar, who showed clear improvement during his second year as Penn State’s starting quarterback, struggled for much of Thursday’s 27-24 loss to Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl. But after helping Penn State take the lead midway through the fourth quarter, he had a chance to lead a game-winning drive as the offense took possession with 47 seconds to play and the score tied at 24-24.
Then, on first down from the Penn State 28-yard line, Allar looked downfield for wide receiver Omari Evans but badly misfired, and Notre Dame’s Christian Gray dove to intercept the ball. The Irish then picked up a key first down, setting up Mitch Jeter‘s 41-yard field goal attempt, which he converted with seven seconds left.
“I was going through my progression, got to the backside, and honestly, I was just trying to dirt it at his feet,” Allar said. “I should have just thrown it away when I felt the first two progressions not open, because of the situation we were in.”
Allar, who completed 71.6% of his passes during the regular season and helped Penn State reach the Big Ten title game, connected on only 12 of 23 attempts Thursday for 135 yards. Penn State converted 3 of 11 third-down chances and didn’t complete any passes to its wide receivers. Thursday marked the only game in the past 20 seasons that Penn State failed to complete a pass to a wide receiver.
Notre Dame entered the game fifth nationally in third-down conversion defense at a shade under 30%, while Penn State was 15th nationally in third-down conversions at 47%. On third-and-goal late in the first quarter, Allar’s pass to running back Nicholas Singleton went a bit behind him, bouncing off his hands to prevent a likely touchdown.
“I thought we had a really good plan,” Allar said. “I thought [offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki] and the offensive staff had a really good plan for normal downs, third down and red zone, but I missed a couple throws on it, so it comes down to just execution. Credit to Notre Dame for making it tough, for sure, but I think if we just execute those moments that we would have put ourselves in a better position. It starts with me hitting some of those throws.”
Despite winning a team-record 13 games, including the first two CFP victories in school history, Penn State squandered two leads to fall just short of advancing to the national title game. Coach James Franklin, who dropped to 1-15 against AP top-five opponents, pointed to Penn State’s third-down struggles on both sides of the ball — Notre Dame converted 11 of 17 opportunities — and the final minutes of the first half and start of the second half as the biggest factors in the outcome.
“He’s hurting right now, should be hurting, we’re all hurting, this ain’t easy,” Franklin said of Allar. “He’ll handle it great. He’ll be hurting tonight and he’ll be hurting tomorrow and he’ll hurt a little bit less than the next day and so on and so forth. But he’s a committed guy that’s going to do it the right way.”
Kotelnicki said the team embraced a “playing to win” mindset and wanted to remain aggressive in the final minute. After Singleton rushed for 13 yards on the first play, Penn State tried to use tempo on the ill-fated pass.
“He’s going to put that on himself, and he doesn’t have to,” Kotelnicki said. “I’ve got to be better for him and our offense to make sure that whatever we’re doing, whatever play we’re calling, that our people have a chance to separate and put him in a position where he can feel more comfortable. So I simply say to him, ‘That ain’t you. That’s not on you. You don’t need to take that on your shoulders and feel the blame for that.'”
Allar’s interception marked his first of the CFP and just his eighth all season. He struggled with accuracy during four postseason games — the Big Ten championship and three CFP contests — hitting on only 58 of 109 (53.2%) of his attempts, while throwing six touchdown passes and three interceptions.
The 6-foot-5, 238-pound junior announced last month that he intended to return to Penn State for the 2025 season rather than enter the NFL draft.
“We didn’t win the game, so it wasn’t good enough, I think it’s plain and simple,” Allar said. “So I’ll learn from it, just do everything in my power to get better from it and just grow from it.”
Franklin called Allar’s growth “significant” from 2023, his first year as Penn State’s starter.
“He said it, and it may not feel like it right now, but he’ll learn from this, and he’ll be better for it, and so will we,” Franklin said.