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Jeremy Hunt will promise to weather an economic “storm” by raising taxes, cutting public spending and scaling back energy support to fill a £54bn black hole in the nation’s finances.

The chancellor will insist to MPs on Thursday that his autumn statement puts the UK on a “balanced path to stability” as he tackles the “enemy” of inflation, which has soared to a 41-year high.

But the measures could put him on a collision course with Tory MPs on the right of his party who are already voicing anger about the prospect of some of the plans.

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An 11th hour petition from two dozen Tory MPs, led by Jonathan Gullis, has been sent to the chancellor asking him not to hike fuel duty in the statement.

The package will be in the form of £30bn of spending cuts and £24bn in tax rises over the next five years – a stark contrast to Kwasi Kwarteng’s unfunded tax-slashing spending splurge two months ago.

Among the measures, annual energy bills for a typical household will stay capped at £2,500, but this will rise to £3,000 in April 2023, when support will become more targeted with additional payments for low-income households and pensioners, Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby understands.

More on Jeremy Hunt

On tax rises, those with the broadest shoulders will bear most of the burden, but there will be pain all around.

The chancellor is expected to lower the threshold for paying the highest rate of tax to £125,000 – down from the existing £150,000.

This is a marked difference to Liz Truss’s plans to scrap the 45p rate altogether, giving the highest earners an average tax cut of £10,000.

Analysis says lowering the threshold will bring an extra 246,000 people into the highest bracket at a cost to them of around £580 each a year, which in turn would raise the Treasury £1.3bn a year.

Mr Hunt is also expected to announce a freeze on personal income tax and national insurance tax thresholds lasting until 2028.

Sometimes referred to as a “stealth tax”, freezing tax thresholds drags more earners into paying higher rates of tax.

Mr Hunt has already hinted he will make it easier for local authorities to increase council tax, with reports suggesting the threshold for raising bills without a referendum could increase from 2.99% to 5%.

There is also expected to be a big increase in the windfall tax on energy companies, and a new tax on electricity generators.

Labour has previously said a windfall tax extension could raise an additional £50bn, and criticised what it calls the “loophole” that allows gas and oil firms to offset their tax liability if they invest back into the UK.

On spending cuts, departments are expected to be told to live within an envelope of the March Spending Review, when inflation at was 3%.

With inflation now at 11.1%, that amounts to a real-terms cut across the board, meaning tough choices will be necessary.

However, there will be some exceptions, with the NHS expected to get more money.

There is also likely to be some protection for the schools budget, Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates understands.

“There will inevitably be some good news after the weeks of doom-laden warnings,” he said.

Mr Sunak and Mr Hunt have spent weeks warning that tough choices lay ahead.

However, the prime minister told Sky News on Tuesday that “fairness and compassion” will be at the heart of his decisions.

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Rishi Sunak refuses to apologise for the economic turmoil Liz Truss’s short-lived government caused for the UK

It is understood the chancellor will keep the triple lock for pensioners in his autumn statement – honouring a manifesto commitment.

He is also expected to uprate benefits in line with inflation, rather than earnings (a controversial move that would have saved £5bn).

The government has not confirmed what measures will be in the statement, but there has been a constant stream of measures reportedly being considered.

This “pitch rolling” helps markets get an idea of what is coming down the road and avoids spooking traders.

When Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng made several surprise announcements in their mini-budget in September, it contributed to the financial chaos which saw the pound crash and the Bank of England forced to intervene to prevent pension funds from collapsing.

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Analysis released on Monday by the independent Resolution Foundation think tank found the mistakes they made cost the UK £30bn, doubling the sum the Treasury says will have to be raised.

Mr Hunt will say that his “difficult decisions” are necessary to keep mortgage rates low and tackle the rocketing energy and food prices intensifying the cost of living crisis.

“Families across Britain make sacrifices every day to live within their means, and so too must governments because the United Kingdom will always pay its way,” he is expected to say.

But Tories on the right of the Conservative Party are already voicing anger about the prospect of raising taxes.

Among the Tory critics, former cabinet minister Esther McVey has warned she will not support tax rises without the scrapping of the “unnecessary vanity project” of HS2.

Former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg told ITV’s Peston he would vote for the budget so as to not bring the government down, but warned he opposes tax increases, which he believes “risks making a recession worse”.

Labour has also warned that Britain is “falling behind on the global stage”.

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “The country is being held back by 12 years of Tory economic failure and wasted opportunities and working people are paying the price.

“What Britain needs in the autumn statement are fairer choices for working people, and a proper plan for growth.”

And Sharon Graham, the general secretary of the Unite union, warned Mr Hunt “workers are ready to take a stand”.

“He can choose to inject investment into the NHS and deliver a fair pay deal – or he can leave it as it is today, in danger of fatal collapse,” she said.

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Girl, 12, who died after being found unresponsive at psychiatric unit failed on multiple levels, inquest finds

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Girl, 12, who died after being found unresponsive at psychiatric unit failed on multiple levels, inquest finds

A 12-year-old girl who died after an incident of self-harm was failed on multiple levels, an inquest jury has found.

Warning: This story contains references to self-harm and suicide

Mia Lucas, who died in January 2024, was found unresponsive at an NHS children’s psychiatric unit after developing a rare neurological disorder that had been left undiagnosed.

The jury at Sheffield Coroner’s Court heard the girl was found at the Becton Centre, part of Sheffield Children’s NHS Foundation Trust.

She had been placed there after being sectioned while suffering an “acute psychotic episode” during an assessment at the Queen’s Medical Centre (QMC) in Nottingham.

On Thursday, the jury found that the failure to undertake a lumbar puncture at QMC before her transfer to the Becton Centre “possibly contributed to Mia’s death”.

A lumbar puncture involves a needle being inserted into your lower back to find out if symptoms are caused by a brain or spine condition.

Mia Lucas.
Pic: Family handout/PA
Image:
Mia Lucas.
Pic: Family handout/PA

The jury also said there was a failure at the Becton Centre to respond adequately to Mia’s risk of self-harm.

Professor Marta Cohen told the jury Mia’s cause of death was “compression of the neck” but she had now added that this was caused by “acute psychosis”, which was caused by “autoimmune encephalitis”, an inflammation of the brain that can cause extreme psychiatric symptoms and is treatable.

The autoimmune encephalitis diagnosis emerged during the nine-day inquest after a pathologist revealed she had received new post-mortem results.

The revelation prompted shock in the courtroom and tears from Mia’s family members in the public gallery.

The condition was described as “complex and rare”, according to consultant paediatric neurologist Mike Taylor.

He added that there was a low level of suspicion Mia had it, while being assessed at QMC, and told the court that experts had to consider the very severe treatment side effects, which included death.

Mia’s mother, Chloe Hayes, told Sky News she was unhappy at how the Becton Centre had supervised her daughter.

Mia Lucas (right), with her mother Chloe. Pic: Family handout/PA
Image:
Mia Lucas (right), with her mother Chloe. Pic: Family handout/PA

“All they had to do was watch her. I actually never got told the truth about the attempts that Mia made [to self-harm] until after she died,” she said.

“If I’d have known the truth I wouldn’t have left Mia there. And I think she had so much to live for. I don’t think she knew what she was doing.”

In a statement, Mrs Hayes added that she wanted people to know her daughter’s extreme behaviour was only evident in the final few weeks of her life.

“For the other 12 years, she was a beautiful soul who loved life and loved her family, and that’s how we want her to be remembered,” she said, describing Mia as a “happy, fun, friendly girl who had so much to live for.”

NHS Trusts apologise for Mia’s death

In a statement, Dr Manjeet Shehmar, medical director at Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, offered “heartfelt condolences to Mia’s family for the loss of their daughter”.

She continued: “We accept the coroner’s outcome in court today and apologise to Mia’s family for not identifying autoimmune encephalitis while she was in our care. While this is an incredibly rare condition and initial tests were negative, we recognise that further testing may have had an impact on her future, for which we are truly sorry.”

Dr Shehmar said that in future cases of suspected possible autoimmune encephalitis, a lumbar puncture will be performed.

The trust will also “strengthen training and guidance for staff internally and review current published evidence of acute psychotic episodes in children and young people”.

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Pic: Family handout/PA
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Pic: Family handout/PA

Dr Jeff Perring, executive medical director at Sheffield Children’s NHS Foundation Trust, said: “Our thoughts are with Mia’s family and everyone who is grieving her loss in such tragic circumstances.

“We are deeply sorry for Mia’s death and recognise the profound impact this has had on those who loved her.”

The trust has carried out a thorough review of Mia’s care and made “significant changes” at the Becton Centre, he added.

“We will continue to work with children, young people, their families and carers to listen to, learn and take action from their experiences.

“The inquest has been important to understand fully the circumstances surrounding Mia’s death. We will now carefully reflect on the evidence heard and the coroner’s conclusions to ensure we continue to provide safe and compassionate care.”

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. Alternatively, you can call Mind’s support line on 0300 102 1234, or NHS on 111.

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Budget 2025 is a big risk for Labour’s election plans

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Budget 2025 is a big risk for Labour's election plans

Day two after a budget is always an important moment.

This is when the nerds and boffins of Britain’s fiscal thinktanks assemble to deliver their snap verdict on the chancellor’s decisions.

The moment is more important than ever when, as was certainly the case this time, the budget is a big one.

So what did the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and the Resolution Foundation make of this year’s budget?

Well, as you’d probably expect, they both fell short of distilling it into a single soundbite, but in broad terms, they both sounded somewhat positive.

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Yes, there were plenty of big provisos. The head of the IFS, Helen Miller, said Labour have broken their manifesto pledge not to raise National Insurance.

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The Resolution Foundation argued that if only the chancellor had raised the basic rate of income tax instead of freezing personal allowances, it would have made the tax rise considerably fairer and more progressive.

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Treasury minister vs Ed Conway

And that’s before one gets into the criticism of some of the other bits and pieces from the red book – the structure of the EV tax, for instance (why doesn’t it try to penalise congestion?), or of the mansion tax (why not just overhaul council tax altogether?).

But for the most part, these closely-followed institutions seemed pretty supportive of this year’s budget – more so, certainly, than they were last year.

Primarily, that’s because while the last budget left only a very thin bit of headroom against Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules, this one was far more cautious, doubling that fiscal insurance policy to just over £21bn.

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Beth Rigby challenges Sir Keir Starmer over the budget

Yet that headroom is dependent on a couple of important factors. First, that the government will hold to its promises to keep spending growth constrained towards the end of the decade. Second, that it will be able to raise all the tax revenues it’s promising in that year.

That, in turn, gets to a deeper issue with the budget. Most of the tough stuff has been put off to the final year of the forecast – namely 2029.

That year, the government will face a squeeze at the very same moment that Britons are all asked to pay more in taxes.

And, critically, that’s the very year Labour is due to face a general election. Does it really plan to fight an election off the back of a contracting economy?

Consider, too, that for all the government’s promises to get living standards growing this parliament, they are currently only forecast to rise at the slowest rate since the 1950s – save for the pandemic and energy price shock period. The economic backdrop, in other words, is hardly rosy.

Still, for the time being, the chancellor has managed to put together a budget that has bolstered her position both in her party and in her job.

Markets remain relatively sanguine – much more so than after Rachel Reeves’s first budget last year – with bond yields lower today than before the event (albeit a little higher than yesterday).

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However, this was a complex budget. And, as with all bits of complex engineering, there remains a distinct possibility of large chunks of the budget failing to work.

But since so much of it isn’t due to kick in for a few years, it may take quite a while before we find out which bits work and which, if any, don’t.

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Man arrested at Manchester airport in connection with attack at Heaton Park synagogue

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Man arrested at Manchester airport in connection with attack at Heaton Park synagogue

A man has been arrested at an airport as part of the investigation into the terrorist attack at a Manchester synagogue.

The 31-year-old was detained at Manchester Airport on suspicion of the commission, preparation and instigation of acts of terrorism after arriving on an inbound flight, police said.

It brings the total number of people arrested in connection with the incident at Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue to seven.

Jihad al Shamie launched the attack at the synagogue in Crumpsall on 2 October, driving his car at worshippers gathering on the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur, before attacking others with a knife and trying to storm inside.

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Manchester synagogue terrorist: what we know now

Armed police shot al Shamie after he ran towards officers “aggressively” while carrying a knife and what police feared was an explosive device – later identified as a fake.

Worshippers Melvin Cravitz, 66, and Adrian Daulby, 53, were killed, with Mr Daulby being described as a “quiet hero” who leapt from his seat to block the doors of the synagogue as it came under attack.

Adrian Daulby, left, and Melvin Cravitz. Pics: Family handout/Greater Manchester Police
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Adrian Daulby, left, and Melvin Cravitz. Pics: Family handout/Greater Manchester Police

He died from a single gunshot wound to the chest fired by an armed police officer, while father-of-three Mr Cravitz died from multiple knife wounds inflicted by al Shamie, an inquest at Manchester Coroner’s Court heard in October.

The inquests into the deaths of both men have been adjourned until February next year.

Three other men were treated in hospital for serious injuries. Two have since been released, police said on Thursday.

The deadly attack rocked the local community. Pic: PA
Image:
The deadly attack rocked the local community. Pic: PA

An inquest into the death of al Shamie, a Syrian-born UK citizen, heard he was identified by his fingerprints and evidence, including his car, phone and inquiries with his immediate family in the aftermath of the attack.

At the hearing in October, Judge Alexia Durran, the chief coroner of England and Wales, said her provisional findings were that al Shamie died of gunshot wounds.

The Independent Office for Police Conduct found no misconduct in the police response.

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Synagogue attacker died of gunshot wounds

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In a statement on Thursday, Assistant Chief Constable Rob Potts, from Counter Terrorism Policing North West, said: “The loved ones of Mr Daulby and Mr Cravitz have been updated on this development, as have those who were seriously injured in the attack.

“Our investigation is continuing, and I would once again appeal for anyone with information that they think could assist our enquiries to please come forward.”

Police also said a 30-year-old man arrested on 9 October on suspicion of failing to disclose information contrary to S38B of the Terrorism Act 2000 remains on bail.

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