Jeremy Hunt to unveil package of tax hikes and spending cuts in autumn statement to plug £54bn black hole
Jeremy Hunt will promise to weather an economic “storm” by raising taxes, cutting public spending and scaling back energy support to fill a £54bn black hole in the nation’s finances.
The chancellor will insist to MPs on Thursday that his autumn statement puts the UK on a “balanced path to stability” as he tackles the “enemy” of inflation, which has soared to a 41-year high.
But the measures could put him on a collision course with Tory MPs on the right of his party who are already voicing anger about the prospect of some of the plans.
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An 11th hour petition from two dozen Tory MPs, led by Jonathan Gullis, has been sent to the chancellor asking him not to hike fuel duty in the statement.
The package will be in the form of £30bn of spending cuts and £24bn in tax rises over the next five years – a stark contrast to Kwasi Kwarteng’s unfunded tax-slashing spending splurge two months ago.
Among the measures, annual energy bills for a typical household will stay capped at £2,500, but this will rise to £3,000 in April 2023, when support will become more targeted with additional payments for low-income households and pensioners, Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby understands.
On tax rises, those with the broadest shoulders will bear most of the burden, but there will be pain all around.
The chancellor is expected to lower the threshold for paying the highest rate of tax to £125,000 – down from the existing £150,000.
This is a marked difference to Liz Truss’s plans to scrap the 45p rate altogether, giving the highest earners an average tax cut of £10,000.
Analysis says lowering the threshold will bring an extra 246,000 people into the highest bracket at a cost to them of around £580 each a year, which in turn would raise the Treasury £1.3bn a year.
Mr Hunt is also expected to announce a freeze on personal income tax and national insurance tax thresholds lasting until 2028.
Sometimes referred to as a “stealth tax”, freezing tax thresholds drags more earners into paying higher rates of tax.
Mr Hunt has already hinted he will make it easier for local authorities to increase council tax, with reports suggesting the threshold for raising bills without a referendum could increase from 2.99% to 5%.
There is also expected to be a big increase in the windfall tax on energy companies, and a new tax on electricity generators.
Labour has previously said a windfall tax extension could raise an additional £50bn, and criticised what it calls the “loophole” that allows gas and oil firms to offset their tax liability if they invest back into the UK.
On spending cuts, departments are expected to be told to live within an envelope of the March Spending Review, when inflation at was 3%.
With inflation now at 11.1%, that amounts to a real-terms cut across the board, meaning tough choices will be necessary.
However, there will be some exceptions, with the NHS expected to get more money.
There is also likely to be some protection for the schools budget, Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates understands.
“There will inevitably be some good news after the weeks of doom-laden warnings,” he said.
Mr Sunak and Mr Hunt have spent weeks warning that tough choices lay ahead.
However, the prime minister told Sky News on Tuesday that “fairness and compassion” will be at the heart of his decisions.
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It is understood the chancellor will keep the triple lock for pensioners in his autumn statement – honouring a manifesto commitment.
He is also expected to uprate benefits in line with inflation, rather than earnings (a controversial move that would have saved £5bn).
The government has not confirmed what measures will be in the statement, but there has been a constant stream of measures reportedly being considered.
This “pitch rolling” helps markets get an idea of what is coming down the road and avoids spooking traders.
When Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng made several surprise announcements in their mini-budget in September, it contributed to the financial chaos which saw the pound crash and the Bank of England forced to intervene to prevent pension funds from collapsing.
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Analysis released on Monday by the independent Resolution Foundation think tank found the mistakes they made cost the UK £30bn, doubling the sum the Treasury says will have to be raised.
Mr Hunt will say that his “difficult decisions” are necessary to keep mortgage rates low and tackle the rocketing energy and food prices intensifying the cost of living crisis.
“Families across Britain make sacrifices every day to live within their means, and so too must governments because the United Kingdom will always pay its way,” he is expected to say.
But Tories on the right of the Conservative Party are already voicing anger about the prospect of raising taxes.
Among the Tory critics, former cabinet minister Esther McVey has warned she will not support tax rises without the scrapping of the “unnecessary vanity project” of HS2.
Former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg told ITV’s Peston he would vote for the budget so as to not bring the government down, but warned he opposes tax increases, which he believes “risks making a recession worse”.
Labour has also warned that Britain is “falling behind on the global stage”.
Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “The country is being held back by 12 years of Tory economic failure and wasted opportunities and working people are paying the price.
“What Britain needs in the autumn statement are fairer choices for working people, and a proper plan for growth.”
And Sharon Graham, the general secretary of the Unite union, warned Mr Hunt “workers are ready to take a stand”.
“He can choose to inject investment into the NHS and deliver a fair pay deal – or he can leave it as it is today, in danger of fatal collapse,” she said.
UK
No 10 backs Chancellor Rachel Reeves and says she ‘is going nowhere’ after tearful appearance in Commons
Rachel Reeves has not offered her resignation and is “going nowhere”, Downing Street has said, following her tearful appearance in the House of Commons.
A Number 10 spokesperson said the chancellor had the “full backing” of Sir Keir Starmer, despite Ms Reeves looking visibly upset during Prime Minister’s Questions.
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A spokesperson for the chancellor later clarified that Ms Reeves had been affected by a “personal matter” and would be working out of Downing Street this afternoon.
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UK government bond prices fell by the most since October 2022, and the pound tumbled after Ms Reeves’s Commons appearance, while the yield on the 10-year government bond, or gilt, rose as much as 22 basis points at one point to around 4.68%.
Downing Street’s insistence came despite Sir Keir refusing to guarantee that Ms Reeves would stay as chancellor until the next election following the fallout from the government’s recent welfare U-turn.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch branded the chancellor the “human shield” for the prime minister’s “incompetence” just hours after he was forced to perform a humiliating U-turn over his controversial welfare bill.
Speaking at Prime Minister’s Questions, Ms Badenoch said: “This man has forgotten that his welfare bill was there to plug a black hole created by the chancellor. Instead they’re creating new ones.”
Turning to the chancellor, the Tory leader added: “[She] is pointing at me – she looks absolutely miserable.
“Labour MPs are going on the record saying that the chancellor is toast, and the reality is that she is a human shield for his incompetence. In January, he said that she would be in post until the next election. Will she really?”
Not fully answering the question, the prime minister replied: “[Ms Badenoch] certainly won’t.
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Welfare vote ‘a blow to the prime minister’
“I have to say, I’m always cheered up when she asks me questions or responds to a statement because she always makes a complete mess of it and shows just how unserious and irrelevant they are.”
Mrs Badenoch interjected: “How awful for the chancellor that he couldn’t confirm that she would stay in place.”
The prime minister’s watered-down Universal Credit and Personal Independent Payment Bill, aimed at saving £5bn, was backed by a majority of 75 in a tense vote on Tuesday evening.
A total of 49 Labour MPs voted against the bill – the largest rebellion in a prime minister’s first year in office since 47 MPs voted against Tony Blair’s Lone Parent benefit in 1997, according to Professor Phil Cowley from Queen Mary University.
After multiple concessions made due to threats of a Labour rebellion, many MPs questioned what they were voting for as the bill had been severely stripped down.
They ended up voting for only one part of the plan: a cut to Universal Credit (UC) sickness benefits for new claimants from £97 a week to £50 from 2026/7.
Ms Badenoch said the climbdown was proof that Sir Keir was “too weak to get anything done”.
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Ms Reeves has also borne a lot of the criticism over the handling of the vote, with some MPs believing that her strict approach to fiscal rules has meant she has approached the ballooning welfare bill from the standpoint of trying to make savings, rather than getting people into work.
Experts have now warned that the welfare U-turn, on top of reversing the cut to winter fuel, means that tax rises in the autumn are more likely – with Ms Reeves now needing to find £5bn to make up for the policy U-turns.
Asked by Ms Badenoch whether he could rule out further tax rises – something Labour promised it would not do on working people in its manifesto – Sir Keir said: “She knows that no prime minister or chancellor ever stands at the despatch box and writes budgets in the future.
“But she talks about growth, for 14 years we had stagnation, and that is what caused the problem.”
Prosecutors are considering whether to bring further criminal charges against Lucy Letby over the deaths of babies at two hospitals where she worked
The Crown Prosecution Service said it had received “a full file of evidence from Cheshire Constabulary asking us to consider further allegations in relation to deaths and non-fatal collapses of babies at the Countess of Chester Hospital and Liverpool Women’s Hospital”.
“We will now carefully consider the evidence to determine whether any further criminal charges should be brought,” it added.
“As always, we will make that decision independently, based on the evidence and in line with our legal test.”
Letby, 35, was found guilty of murdering seven children and attempting to murder seven more between June 2015 and June 2016 while working in the neonatal unit of the Countess of Chester Hospital and is currently serving 15 whole-life orders.
Letby worked at the Countess of Chester Hospital and Liverpool Women’s Hospital
She is understood to have carried out two work placements at Liverpool Women’s Hospital, where she trained as a student, between October and December 2012, and January and February 2015.
Police said in December that Letby was interviewed in prison as part of an investigation into more baby deaths and non-fatal collapses.
A Cheshire Constabulary spokesperson said: “We can confirm that Cheshire Constabulary has submitted a full file of evidence to the CPS for charging advice regarding the ongoing investigation into deaths and non-fatal collapses of babies at the neo-natal units of both the Countess of Chester Hospital and the Liverpool Women’s Hospital as part of Operation Hummingbird.”
Detectives previously said the investigation was looking into the full period of time that Letby worked as a nurse, covering the period from 2012 to 2016 and including a review of 4,000 admissions of babies.
Letby’s lawyer Mark McDonald said: “The evidence of the innocence of Lucy Letby is overwhelming,” adding: “We will cross every bridge when we get to it but if Lucy is charged I know we have a whole army of internationally renowned medical experts who will totally undermine the prosecution’s unfounded allegations.”
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Three managers at the hospital where Lucy Letby worked have been arrested on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter.
On Tuesday, it was confirmed that three managers at the Countess of Chester hospital had been arrested on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter in a separate investigation.
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Police said the suspects, who occupied senior positions at the hospital between 2015 and 2016, have all been bailed pending further inquiries.
There is also an investigation into corporate manslaughter at the hospital, which began in October 2023.
A public inquiry has also been examining the hospital’s response to concerns raised about Letby before her arrest.
In May, it was announced the inquiry’s final report into how the former nurse was able to commit her crimes will now be published early next year.
Earlier this year, Letby’s lawyers called for the suspension of the inquiry, claiming there was “overwhelming and compelling evidence” that her convictions were unsafe.
In February, an international panel of neonatologists and paediatric specialists told reporters that poor medical care and natural causes were the reasons for the collapses and deaths.
Their evidence has been passed to the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC), which investigates potential miscarriages of justice, and Letby’s legal team hopes her case will be referred back to the Court of Appeal.
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