Royal Mail is seeking to reduce its commitment to letter deliveries as an estimated £70m impact from strike action is blamed for plunging its parent firm into the red.
International Distributions Services, which includes its GLS global delivery division, reported pre-tax losses of £127m for the 26 weeks to 25 September.
That compared to profits of £315m a year ago.
Royal Mail, it said, slumped to an underlying operating loss of £219m after recording profits of £235m in the same period in 2021.
It cited weaker parcel volumes and said three days of strikes over the six month period cost the UK business £70m.
The company estimated a further five days of action during October had resulted in additional losses of £30m.
Royal Mail, which is no stranger to strikes amid an often tempestuous relationship with its largest union the CWU, remains locked in a dispute over pay and its modernisation plans, including Sunday and flexible working, affecting 115,000 frontline postal staff.
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The union has threatened further walkouts in the run-up to the core Christmas season.
The strike dates are pencilled-in for 24 and 25 November, which is Black Friday, 30 November and 1 December.
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For its part, Royal Mail has warned it could axe up to 10,000 jobs without an agreement.
Just last month, it revealed a consultation on up to 6,000 redundancies.
It has also approached the government about slashing letter deliveries to five days a week – instead of the current six – with its boss Simon Thompson saying he must do “whatever it takes” to turn the business around.
A government spokesperson said there are “no current plans to change the universal service”.
He added: “While we recognise the issues that Royal Mail raise, there would need to be a strong case that showed changes would meet reasonable needs of users of postal services and ensure the financial sustainability of the universal postal service.”
There is a sign of progress in the company’s negotiations with the CWU, which resumed last week.
Royal Mail revealed earlier this week that the talks, which had been scheduled to conclude on Tuesday, had been extended to allow more time for a resolution to be reached.
A spokesperson said then: “Time is tight given the notified strikes starting on 24 November.
“If these strikes go ahead, they will cause more damage to the business and make our improved 9% pay offer over two years less affordable.”
IDS said it still expected a full-year adjusted operating loss for Royal Mail of between £350m-£450m.
It is targeting for Royal Mail to return to adjusted operating profit in the next financial year.
Keith Williams, non-executive chairman of IDS, said: “We are now heading in a clear direction in light of the substantial losses in Royal Mail.
“Whilst our frontline management population under Unite/CMA has agreed both pay and change in the last few months, progress on a deal for frontline employees has been blocked by the actions of CWU.
“Accordingly, we have started to implement the change needed to rightsize Royal Mail which will ensure that it is both better placed to serve our customers’ needs in parcels, as well as letters, bring it back to profitability and provide a sustainable future.
“We believe that this is the best course of action for the long-term survival of Royal Mail even if it results in short-term disruption.”
He added: “The board reiterates that in the event of the lack of significant operational change in Royal Mail it will look at all options to preserve value for the group including the possibility of separation of the two businesses.”
Such a move would affect Royal Mail staff who have retained shares awarded under its 2013 flotation.
IDS shares opened more than 6% down but later recovered much of that ground.
The owners of Visma, one of Europe’s biggest software companies, are close to hiring bankers for a £16bn flotation that would rank among the London market’s biggest for years.
Sky News understands that Visma’s board and shareholders have convened a beauty parade of investment banks in the last fortnight ahead of an initial public offering (IPO) likely to take place in 2026.
Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are understood to be among those in contention for the top roles on the deal, City insiders said on Friday.
Several banks are expected to be appointed as global coordinators on the IPO as soon as this month.
Visma is a Norwegian company which supplies accounting, payroll, HR and other business software to well over one million small business customers.
It has grown at a rapid rate in recent years, both organically and through scores of acquisitions, and has seen its profitability and valuation rise substantially during that period.
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The business is now valued at about €19bn (£16.4bn) and is partly owned by a number of sovereign wealth funds and other private equity firms.
The majority of the company is owned by Hg, the London-based private equity firm which has backed a string of spectacularly successful companies in the software industry.
Visma’s owners’ decision to pick the UK ahead of competition from Amsterdam represents a welcome boost to the City amid ongoing questions about the attractiveness of the London stock market to international companies.
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, used last month’s speech at Mansion House to launch a taskforce aimed at generating additional IPO activity in the UK.
Spokespeople claiming to represent Visma at Kekst, a communications firm, did not respond to a series of enquiries about the IPO appointments.
Hg also failed to respond to a request for comment.
The American investment giant Carlyle is preparing to take control of Very Group, one of Britain’s biggest online retailers, in a deal that will end the Barclay family’s long tenure at another major UK company.
Sky News has learnt that Carlyle, which is the biggest lender to Very Group’s immediate parent company, could assume ownership of the retailer as soon as October under the terms of its financing arrangements.
On Friday, sources said that Carlyle was expected to hold further talks in the coming weeks with fellow creditors including IMI, the Abu Dhabi-based vehicle which assumed part of Very Group’s debts in a complex deal related to ownership of the Telegraph newspaper titles.
Carlyle will probably end up holding a majority stake in Very Group, which has about 4.5 million customers, once it exercises a ‘step-in right’ which effectively converts its debt into equity ownership, the sources said.
Very Group – which is chaired by the former Conservative chancellor Nadhim Zahawi – borrowed a further £600m from Arini, a Mayfair-based fund, earlier this year as it sought to stave off a cash crunch and buy itself breathing space.
Precise details of the company’s capital and ownership structure will be thrashed out before the change of control rights are triggered at the beginning of October.
The Barclay family drew up plans to hire bankers to run an auction of Very Group earlier this year, but a process was never formally launched.
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Carlyle, which declined to comment, may hold onto the business for a further period before looking to offload it.
IMI is also likely to end up with an equity stake or a preferred position in the recapitalised company’s debt structure, sources added.
Prospective bidders for Very Group were expected to be courted on the basis of its technology-driven financial services arm as well as the core retail offering which sells everything from electrical goods to fashion.
Retail industry insiders have long speculated that the business was likely to be valued in the region of £2.5bn – below the valuation which the Barclay family was holding out for in an auction which took place several years ago.
Very Group – previously known as Shop Direct – is one of the UK’s biggest online shopping businesses, owning the Very and Littlewoods brands and employing 3,700 people.
It boasts well over £2bn in annual sales, with about one-fifth of that generated by its Very Finance consumer lending arm.
Mr Zahawi was appointed as the company’s chairman last year, days after he announced that he was standing down as the MP for Stratford-on-Avon at July’s general election.
He replaced Aidan Barclay, a senior member of the family which has owned the business for decades.
In the 39 weeks to 29 March, Very Group reported a 3.8% fall in revenue to £1.67bn, which it said included “a decrease in Littlewoods revenue of 15.1%, reflecting the ongoing managed decline of this business”.
Nevertheless, it said sales in its home and sports categories were performing strongly.
IMI’s position is expected to be pivotal to the talks about the future of the business, given Abu Dhabi’s status as an important global backer of buyout, credit and infrastructure funds such as those raised and managed by Carlyle.
The UAE vehicle is expected to emerge from the protracted saga over the Telegraph’s ownership with a 15% stake in the newspapers.
Under the original deal struck in 2023, RedBird and IMI paid a total of £1.2bn to refinance the Barclay family’s debts to Lloyds Banking Group, with half tied to the media assets and the other half – solely funded by IMI – secured against other family assets including part of Very Group’s debt pile.
The Barclays, who used to own London’s Ritz hotel, have already lost control of other corporate assets including the Yodel parcel delivery service.
A spokesman for Very Group declined to comment, while IMI also declined to comment.
It had seemed simple enough. In her first budget as chancellor, Rachel Reeves promised a crackdown on the non-dom regime, which for the past 200 years has allowed residents to declare they are permanently domiciled in another country for tax purposes.
Under the scheme, non-doms, some of the richest people in the country, were not taxed on their foreign incomes.
Then that all changed.
Standing at the despatch box in October last year, the chancellor said: “I have always said that if you make Britain your home, you should pay your tax here. So today, I can confirm we will abolish the non-dom tax regime and remove the outdated concept of domicile from the tax system from April 2025.”
The hope was that the move would raise £3.8bn for the public purse. However, there are signs that the non-doms are leaving in such great numbers that the policy could end up costing the UK investment, jobs and, of course, the tax that the non-doms already pay on their UK earnings.
If the numbers don’t add up, this tax-raising policy could morph into an act of self-harm.
Image: Rachel Reeves has plenty to ponder ahead of her next budget. File pic: Reuters
With the budget already under strain, a poor calculation would be costly financially. The alternative, a U-turn, could be expensive for other reasons, eroding faith in a chancellor who has already been on a turbulent ride.
So, how worried should she be?
The data on the number of non-doms in the country is published with a considerable lag. So, it will be a while before we know the full impact of this policy.
However, there is much uncertainty about how this group will behave.
While the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast that the policy could generate £3.8bn for the government over the next five years, assuming between 12 and 25% of them leave, it admitted it lacked confidence in those numbers.
Worryingly for ministers, there are signs, especially in London, that the exodus could be greater.
Property sales
Analysis from the property company LonRes, shows there were 35.8% fewer transactions in May for properties in London’s most exclusive postcodes compared with a year earlier and 33.5% fewer than the pre-pandemic average.
Estate agents blame falling demand from non-dom buyers.
This comes as no surprise to Magda Wierzycka, a South African billionaire businesswoman, who runs an investment fund in London. She herself is threatening to leave the UK unless the government waters down its plans.
Image: Magda Wierzycka, from Narwan nondom VT
“Non-doms are leaving, as we speak, and the problem with numbers is that the consequences will only become known in the next 12 to 18 months,” she said.
“But I have absolutely no doubt, based on people I know who have already left, that the consequences would be quite significant.
“It’s not just about the people who are leaving that everyone is focusing on. It’s also about the people who are not coming, people who would have come, set up businesses, created jobs, they’re not coming. They take one look at what has happened here, and they’re not coming.”
Lack of options for non-doms
But where will they go? Britain was unusual in offering such an attractive regime. Bar a few notable exceptions, such as Italy, most countries run residency-based tax systems, meaning people pay tax to the country in which they live.
This approach meant many non-doms escaped paying tax on their foreign income altogether because they didn’t live in those countries where they earned their foreign income.
In any case, widespread double taxation treaties mean people are generally not taxed twice, although they may have to pay the difference.
In one important sense, Magda is right. It could take a while before the consequences are fully known. There are few firm data points for us to draw conclusions from right now, but the past could be illustrative.
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3:06
Are taxes going to rise?
The non-dom regime has been through repeated reform. George Osborne changed the system back in 2017 to limit it to just 15 years. Then Jeremy Hunt announced the Tories would abolish the regime altogether in one of his final budgets.
Following the 2017 reforms there was an initial shock, but the numbers stabilised, falling just 5% after a few years. The data suggests there was an initial exodus of people who were probably considering leaving anyway, but those who remained – and then arrived – were intent on staying in the UK.
So, should the government look through the numbers and hold its nerve? Not necessarily.
Have Labour crossed a red line?
Stuart Adam, a senior economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the response could be far greater this time because of some key changes under Labour.
The government will no longer allow non-doms to protect money held in trusts, so 40% inheritance tax will be due on their estates. For many, that is a red line.
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1:57
‘Rachel Reeves would hate what you just said’
Mr Adam said: “The 2017 reform deliberately built in what you might call a loophole, a way to avoid paying a lot more tax through the use of existing offshore trusts. That was a route deliberately left open to enable many people to avoid the tax.
“So it’s not then surprising that they didn’t up sticks and leave. Part of the reform that was announced last year was actually not having that kind of gap in the system to enable people to avoid the tax using trusts, and therefore you might expect to see a bigger response to the kind of reforms we’ve seen announced now, but it also means we don’t have very much idea about how big a response to expect.”
With the public finances under considerable pressure, that will offer little comfort to a chancellor who is operating on the finest of margins.