
NHL Power Rankings: Every team’s MVP so far
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adminThe quarter mark of the 2022-23 NHL season is fast approaching, as teams will hit game No. 20 on their schedules within the coming days. To mark the occasion, we’ve identified the MVP for all 32 teams, presented in conjunction with this week’s updated 1-32 power rankings.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors rates teams against one another — taking into account game results, injuries and upcoming schedule — and those results are tabulated to produce the list featured here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Nov. 11. Points paces are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 0.882
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Nov. 19), @ TB (Nov. 21), @ FLA (Nov. 23)
Hampus Lindholm is a revelation. He held the fort on Boston’s back end until Charlie McAvoy returned, and helped get the Bruins off to a franchise-best start. Yes, David Pastrnak is great too, but Lindholm elevated his game to dynamic new heights while averaging over a point-per-game, earning a plus-18 rating and generally dominating every shift.
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 0.824
Next seven days: @ OTT (Nov. 19), vs. EDM (Nov. 21), vs. TOR (Nov. 23)
Nico Hischier is on a mission; the Devils’ captain has developed into a two-way force. Hischier’s work ethic combined with talent (17 points in 15 games) and leadership acumen make him a true triple threat. As New Jersey coach Lindy Ruff noted, this is the best version of Hischier so far, and he should be in the conversation for the Selke Trophy.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 0.778
Next seven days: @EDM (Nov. 19), @ VAN (Nov. 21), vs. OTT (Nov. 23)
Logan Thompson is a fortress in net. It’s tough to get a puck by him. The Golden Knights’ goaltending was a question mark until Thompson answered the bell with confidence. Vegas reaps the rewards of that stability everywhere else, and the team’s standout scoring depth (led by Jack Eichel, Chandler Stephenson, et al) and solid back end provide Thompson with great support to be at his best.
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 0.647
Next seven days: @ MIN (Nov. 19), @ WPG (Nov. 21), vs. ARI (Nov. 23)
Andrei Svechnikov gives life to Carolina’s offense. He’s been humming along this season with impressive output right alongside ride-or-die, top-line teammate Sebastian Aho. So, who’s the real MVP? Like the NHL in 2004, we’ll allow for a tie here. Svechnikov and Aho work seamlessly together and apart. Carolina is lucky to have them both firing.
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 0.700
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Nov. 19), vs. CAR (Nov. 21), @ MIN (Nov. 23)
Connor Hellebuyck is back on top. The goalie appeared fully recovered from last season’s downturn with an accomplished start, collecting two shutouts in 11 games and sterling stats, too. Hellebuyck’s resurgence has propelled Winnipeg to unexpectedly strong results early on. Good for the Jets, and good for Hellebuyck in a contract year.
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 0.647
Next seven days: vs. NYI (Nov. 19), vs. COL (Nov. 21), vs. CHI (Nov. 23)
Jason Robertson is worth the investment. He’s lived up to the promise of that new contract with eye-popping output and an emerging two-way game that’s giving the Stars a real boost. Robertson is fortunate to skate with linemates Joe Pavelski and Roope Hintz, too, forming a trio that oozes more chemistry than it does offense. Robertson’s talents are right in the thick of it.
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 0.611
Next seven days: @ DAL (Nov. 19), @ TOR (Nov. 21), vs. EDM (Nov. 23)
Ilya Sorokin is among the league’s hottest — and most unheralded, thus far — goaltenders. He routinely holds the Islanders in games with outstanding saves and has backstopped New York to some stirring come-from-behind wins. That breeds confidence in a team, and the Islanders are latching onto it.
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 0.633
Next seven days: @ WSH (Nov. 19), @ DAL (Nov. 21, vs. VAN (Nov. 23)
Mikko Rantanen does it all for the Avs. While forward injuries have piled up — including to Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin — Rantanen has been excellent filling in the gaps with consistent scoring, and a physical two-way game that’s generating opportunities for him and whatever teammate is nearby to collect a great pass.
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 0.611
Next seven days: vs. BUF (Nov. 19), vs. NYI (Nov. 21), @ NJ (Nov. 23)
John Tavares is channeling Steven Stamkos. The Leafs’ captain is on pace for a career year at 32 — much like the one Stamkos put together last season in Tampa Bay. Toronto has needed every bit of Tavares’ reliability. He’s a top asset on the Leafs’ power play and has had terrific chemistry with William Nylander — also off to a hot start — that’s helped mitigate some of Toronto’s other goal-scoring struggles. Now, what more can Tavares do with new linemate Mitchell Marner on his wing?
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 0.559
Next seven days: vs. CGY (Nov. 19), @ CBJ (No. 20), vs. BOS (Nov. 23)
Brandon Montour has stepped it up. When Aaron Ekblad got hurt it was Montour rising to the occasion to steady their back end. The 28-year-old has been shouldering nearly 26 minutes of ice time per game, and he’s on track to beat all personal career-high offensive marks with 16 points in 14 games alone. Ekblad is easing back in post-injury, but the Panthers will keep leaning on Montour’s dependability.
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 0.618
Next seven days: @ NSH (Nov. 19), vs. BOS (Nov. 21)
Nikita Kucherov is earning plenty of accolades. The veteran wore an “A” this month for the first time in his nine-year career, proof he’s more than just the Lightning’s top sniper. Kucherov has the latter role down pat. First, there was the 11-game point streak, over which Kucherov netted 20 points. Then there’s the confidence Kucherov injects into each game, making the Lightning look dangerous even on their off nights. That’s a special skill.
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 0.605
Next seven days: @ VAN (Nov. 18), @ SEA (Nov. 19), vs. NYR (Nov. 22)
Gabriel Vilardi has officially arrived. The forward is making up for lost time after years of injury issues as L.A.’s newest scoring threat. He was the first King to hit double-digit goals, has a monster 21.3% shooting percentage and is shaping up to be a dual threat who can drive play for L.A.
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 0.556
Next seven days: @ SJ (Nov. 19), @ LA (Nov. 22), @ ANA (Nov. 23)
Adam Fox is excelling everywhere. New York’s top defenseman has the stamina to carry nearly 25 minutes per game while generating the second most points for his team this season. Fox’s ability to body skaters off pucks, manufacture rush chances and be a key playmaker adds up to inspired returns night after night.
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 0.618
Next seven days: vs. LA (Nov. 19), vs. SJ (Nov. 23)
Chris Tanev is putting in work. Seattle’s forward has excelled at both 5-on-5 (registering 10 points in 16 games) and been a top-end performer on the Kraken’s penalty kill. Tanev can be a menace almost anywhere, whether blocking shots or teeing up teammates in transition. Seattle has to hope Tanev can stay healthy enough to keep the good times rolling.
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 0.529
Next seven days: vs. VGK (Nov. 19), @ NJ (Nov. 21), @ NYI (Nov. 23)
Connor McDavid remains otherworldly. Edmonton’s captain led the league with 15 goals and 32 points through 17 tilts and continues to create more highlight-reel-worthy moments per night than he averages points per game. Which is a lot. Rinse, repeat, for the two-time Hart Trophy winner.
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 0.588
Next seven days: @ CBJ (Nov. 19), vs. NSH (Nov. 23)
Ville Husso came as advertised. Detroit needed a No. 1 netminder, and Husso fits the bill with standout performances, key stops and solid numbers. It’s rare for Husso to give up a truly bad goal. The more support Detroit can offer Husso — from the hot sticks of Dylan Larkin and Dominik Kubalik especially — the faster these Red Wings could climb the standings.
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 0.500
Next seven days: @ FLA (Nov. 19), @ PHI (Nov. 21), @ PIT (Nov. 23)
Nazem Kadri won’t be stopped. The Flames’ center wields his unique blend of skill, speed, physicality and grit to pull Calgary into the fight each night. Kadri has been an offensive catalyst through his team’s ups and downs so far, remaining notably consistent with his 5-on-5 production and on special teams. Calgary needs more of that from everyone.
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 0.500
Next seven days: vs. ANA (Nov. 19), vs. ANA (Nov. 21), @ BUF (Nov. 23)
Jordan Binnington is back to being the Blues’ backbone. His recent 4-0-0 run came with a 2.25 goals-against average and .936 save percentage, and included a 45-save performance against the reigning Stanley Cup champions in Colorado. Binnington’s helped get St. Louis on stable ground following a rocky stretch of eight consecutive losses.
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 0.471
Next seven days: vs. CAR (Nov. 19), vs. WPG (Nov. 23)
Marc-Andre Fleury can still steal a win. His tough start evaporated when Fleury reeled off a 5-2-0 record with .939 SV% into mid-November that sheltered Minnesota’s slow-moving offense (28th overall). The Wild couldn’t have asked for a better rebound from their goaltender — making it especially hard to see Fleury suddenly sidelined this week by an injury.
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 0.500
Next seven days: @ WPG (Nov. 19), @ CHI (Nov. 20), vs. CGY (Nov. 23)
Jason Zucker goes hard every shift. Zucker is a trusted presence for the Penguins up front. He puts pucks in the net and feeds off his reenergized linemate — and fellow team MVP candidate — Evgeni Malkin. Zucker brings an infectious energy when the Penguins lack for it elsewhere.
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 0.500
Next seven days: @ MTL (Nov. 19), vs. CGY (Nov. 21), @ WSH (Nov. 23)
Carter Hart is back on track, after well-documented struggles in recent campaigns. The young goaltender has held Philadelphia above water despite all manner of inconsistency in front of him. Hart’s 6-2-3 record with .929 SV% at the mid-November mark was hard-earned through several terrific individual performances. Hart always gives the Flyers a chance.
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 0.500
Next seven days: vs. TB (Nov. 19), vs. ARI (Nov. 21), @ DET (Nov. 23)
Filip Forsberg plays well with others. The Predators have had trouble finding the right mix up front, but Nashville’s scoring leader elevates just about anyone. That provides the underwhelming Predators with some stability and hope that their offense can keep bouncing back and find its form.
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 0.447
Next seven days: vs. COL (Nov. 19), vs. PHI (Nov. 23)
Alex Ovechkin is fun to watch. The Great 8’s milestone hunt is the most engaging part of this Capitals’ campaign (so far, anyway). And along the way there’s been dazzling dangles, pretty passes and timely tallies to push Washington towards its full potential.
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 0.500
Next seven days: vs. PHI (Nov. 19), vs. BUF (Nov. 22), @ CBJ (Nov. 23)
Nick Suzuki takes his role seriously. The Canadiens’ captain leads with passion and makes the most of offensive opportunities. He and linemate Cole Caufield have enviable chemistry that’s produced a landslide of goals to power Montreal through an unexpectedly solid start. All the Canadiens could ask for is more, please.
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 0.406
Next seven days: vs. NJ (Nov. 19), @ SJ (Nov. 21), @ VGK (Nov. 23)
Jake Sanderson has turned heads. The 20-year-old is helping anchor Ottawa’s blue line through its crush of injuries — and disappointing start — with hard-nosed effort and strong defensive skills that reflect how he’s maturing before the Senators’ eyes. Sanderson gamely took on more minutes as well with Thomas Chabot sidelined. He’s a beacon for Ottawa’s back end.
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 0.412
Next seven days: @ TOR (Nov. 19), @ MTL (Nov. 22), vs. STL (Nov. 23)
Rasmus Dahlin is growing towards stardom. He’s honed reliable defensive details, and is an elusive puck-moving playmaker with high-end vision and a terrific first pass that can quickly put Buffalo on the attack. The early Norris Trophy noise Dahlin generated? Well-deserved.
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 0.382
Next seven days: vs. LA (Nov. 18), vs. VGK (Nov. 21), @ COL (Nov. 23)
Bo Horvat is leading by example. Vancouver’s captain can’t quiet all the outside noise, but he can keep scoring at an alarming rate (14 goals in 17 games), playing good defense and offering the Canucks a blueprint on how best to battle through their many challenges.
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 0.469
Next seven days: @ BOS (Nov. 19), vs. PIT (Nov. 20), @ DAL (Nov. 23)
Jonathan Toews is back on track. Chicago’s captain hasn’t played this well in years, pacing the Blackhawks in goals (seven) through 16 games and boasting an eye-popping 65.4% face-off winning percentage. That elite skill alone can swing momentum in Chicago’s favor, and puts Toews’ game-changing abilities repeatedly on display.
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 0.406
Next seven days: @ NSH (Nov. 21), @ CAR (Nov. 23)
Clayton Keller is elite. It’s one thing to be the stimulant behind Arizona’s even-strength offense. But Keller has also shaped the Coyotes’ dominant power play into a behemoth that’s ranked top five in the NHL (29.6%). Regardless of where Arizona plays, count on Keller to create something worth watching.
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 0.395
Next seven days: vs. NYR (Nov. 19), vs. OTT (Nov. 21), @ SEA (Nov. 23)
Erik Karlsson‘s name is trending — in early Norris Trophy buzz, and trade rumors — so he must be doing something right. The revitalized blueliner is San Jose’s best asset on both sides of the puck, hitting 10 goals and 24 points in 18 games amid 25-plus minutes of average ice time. The Sharks limit 5-on-5 scoring chances and shots against demonstrably better when Karlsson is on the ice. No surprise he’d be an attractive trade target — though with full trade protection it’d have to be the right situation.
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 0.406
Next seven days: vs. DET (Nov. 19), vs. FLA (Nov. 20), vs. MTL (Nov. 23)
Johnny Gaudreau brings fans out of their seats. That cannon is loud, after all. Columbus’ top-line winger produced six goals in his first 15 games as a Blue Jacket — each one scored at home. While Columbus has weathered mounting injury problems and sub-optimal results, Gaudreau’s talents remain on display and give Blue Jackets’ faithful something to cheer about.
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 0.324
Next seven days: @ STL (Nov. 19), @ STL (Nov. 21), vs. NYR (Nov. 23)
Trevor Zegras deserved better. Amid a not-so-fun season for the Ducks, Zegras continues to dominate with first-rate talent and skill that produced another Michigan-style lacrosse goal this month — which was called back upon offside review. Terrible. But that doesn’t diminish Zegras’ prowess or how it’s something to stay hopeful about in Anaheim.
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Ohio State coach Ryan Day was candid in his postgame assessment of the Buckeyes’ 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling on Saturday, acknowledging it was “not a matchup game.”
That was the theme of Week 2, which featured multiple contenders playing FCS opponents or other unranked, lower-level teams. That doesn’t mean there weren’t a few lessons learned.
“Regardless of your opponent, you can see good execution,” Day said. “Whether it’s penalties, assignments, spacing, timing — there’s a crispness to anybody you play.”
Not everyone demonstrated that crispness on Saturday against weaker competition — and it changed the playoff pecking order. (Here’s lookin’ at you, Clemson.) This list is fluid — and it should be early in the season. It is a ranking based on what each team has done to date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The win against Texas gives the Buckeyes a case for the top spot, as does the eye test, as quarterback Julian Sayin continues to flourish with his accuracy, consistency and minimal mistakes in his first year as a starter. The defense under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia continues to look stifling. Ohio State also benefited this week from Clemson’s struggles against Troy, because it takes some of the shine off LSU’s season-opening road win against Clemson. While Clemson struggled, Texas reasserted itself. The selection committee members would include those results in their discussions as they determine who had the better Week 1 win. With Clemson dropping out of this week’s top 12, that honor now goes to Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: The committee could still believe that LSU is the better team and reward it for a season-opening road win. Ohio State manhandled Grambling from the onset, a glorified practice in the Shoe against a SWAC team that trailed 35-0 at the half. The committee would consider that both of Ohio State’s wins were at home.
Need to know: The selection committee isn’t supposed to consider last year’s results, so Ohio State’s 2024 national title isn’t a part of its deliberations, nor is the Associated Press poll ranking. The group evaluates the teams based on their current résumés, so how Texas fares will eventually impact how much the committee values that season-opening win against the Longhorns.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes will again have home-field advantage for another marquee matchup, and ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 61.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Canes’ win against Notre Dame in the season opener separates them from the teams ranked below. They also showed no signs of a letdown against FCS Bethune-Cookman on Saturday. Quarterback Carson Beck completed 22 of his first 24 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions, and the Canes also accounted for three touchdowns on the ground — a balanced offense the Wildcats had no answer for. The biggest difference for Miami through two games, though, has been a dominant defense.
Why they could be lower: The committee could still reward LSU for winning on the road, whereas both of Miami’s wins were at home. The Seminoles’ win against Bama will carry weight in the room as long as the Tide keep winning, but the reality is that Miami’s win against Notre Dame looks better — at least through two weeks.
Need to know: With Clemson struggling against Troy and losing to LSU, Miami now has the highest chance in the ACC to reach the playoff (46.5%) and earn a first-round bye as one of the committee’s top four teams (14.6%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. The Canes get rival Florida at home later this month, but they have to travel to Tallahassee, where the Seminoles have quickly asserted themselves as a team to take seriously this year.
Why they could be here: LSU’s win at Clemson is still separating the Tigers from other contenders, but it lost some of its impact after Clemson had an underwhelming defensive performance and its offense was stagnant for a second straight week — this time against Troy. LSU had its own issues offensively against Louisiana Tech, which was able to put pressure on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier throughout the game. LSU struggled to establish the run and push the ball downfield through the bulk of three quarters against Louisiana Tech. While LSU struggled, both Ohio State and Miami left no doubt they were the better team.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee does consider factors such as where the game was played, and of the top three teams, LSU is the only one with a win on the road against what is probably still a CFP Top 25 team.
Need to know: The CFP selection committee this year is using a metric called “record strength” to help determine how a team performed against its schedule. LSU entered Week 2 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, second only to Ohio State.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Ole Miss. The Rebels just beat Kentucky 30-23 for their first SEC win and have a 69.8% chance to beat LSU, according to ESPN’s FPI.
Why they could be here: The Seminoles are still scoring. FSU racked up 70 points against FCS team East Texas A&M — through three quarters. It finished with a 77-3 victory. This FSU team is doing everything it can to make the selection committee forget the 2024 team that won two games. Florida State’s Week 1 win against Alabama was one of the most notable nationally and will continue to help the Noles if the Tide finish as a Top 25 CFP team. The committee also compares common opponents, and although beating East Texas A&M will be a moot point on Selection Day, it’s at least interesting to note that fellow ACC team SMU set the bar in Week 1 when it beat the Lions 42-13.
Why they could be lower: The committee tracks wins against FCS opponents and rewards teams that played tougher opponents. Beating the now 0-2 Lions from the Southland Conference — even with a sledgehammer — isn’t going to earn the Seminoles any bonus points in the room.
Need to know: If the Seminoles can win the unofficial state title by beating rivals Miami and Florida, they could be competing for one of the top four spots and an at-large bid, assuming they finish with one loss or better. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives FSU less than a 50% chance to beat each in-state rival.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Clemson. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a 69.9% chance to win. If that’s FSU’s only regular-season loss, though, the two could meet again in the ACC title game.
Why they could be here: The Ducks embarrassed Oklahoma State — they led 41-3 at the half — giving them a win against a struggling Big 12 program. The selection committee would view this as a better win than the lopsided beatdown the Ducks handed FCS opponent Montana State in Week 1. The committee respects sheer dominance, though, as evidenced by last year’s evaluation of Indiana, and for the second straight week, Oregon scored at least 59 points.
Why they could be lower: Both of the Ducks’ wins have come against significantly weaker opponents, and both were at home.
Need to know: Oregon won’t play a ranked opponent until it travels to Penn State later this month, and if the Ducks don’t win that game, their best chances to impress the selection committee against CFP Top 25 opponents during the regular season will likely be against Indiana and USC.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 67.7% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule that they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: Penn State shut out FIU and played a clean game with no penalties or turnovers — the first time the program has done that since Oct. 25, 2008, at Ohio State — but every team ranked above the Nittany Lions here has a better win on its résumé.
Why they could be lower: There are still some questions about Penn State’s offense. The Nittany Lions converted just 3 of 12 third downs and were 2-of-4 on fourth down. They also had a slow start — 10-0 halftime lead — and the pass protection from the offensive line was shaky at times.
Need to know: If Penn State goes 0-2 against Oregon and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions might have only one win against a CFP Top 25 opponent (Indiana). That’s a scenario where a weak nonconference lineup (Nevada, FIU and Villanova) could haunt them.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 61.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Vols have scored at least 45 points in back-to-back games. They have not missed a step without quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The season-opening win against Syracuse was respectable, but the Orange needed overtime to beat UConn in Week 2, so the jury is still out on the true value of that nonconference win. It’s still better, though, than what some other contenders are lining up and knocking down. That wasn’t the case on Saturday, when the Vols hammered FCS opponent East Tennessee State.
Why they could be higher: There could be a debate between the Vols and Penn State, as the Nittany Lions are the only team ranked above Tennessee without a Power 4 win. Tennessee’s win against a Southern Conference team won’t impress the committee, but unlike Penn State, the Vols have been consistently dominant on offense.
Need to know: Tennessee has the eighth-best chance to make the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff predictor (51%).
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Georgia. The Vols’ offense has been more productive than the Bulldogs’ so far, but ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 60% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are right where they’re supposed to be — undefeated heading into Tennessee — but it hasn’t always been pretty. Georgia closed as 46.5-point favorites against Austin Peay and was clinging to an 11-point halftime lead, its narrowest against a non-FBS opponent since 2016 against Nicholls State. Wins against Marshall and Austin Peay wouldn’t stack up well in the selection committee meeting room against some of the wins earned by the teams ranked above the Bulldogs.
Why they could be lower: Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton didn’t have a single passing touchdown against Austin Peay. He didn’t need to with the Bulldogs’ four rushing touchdowns, but the Dawgs were also stuffed to end the first half after a first-and-goal from the 1-yard line.
Need to know: Georgia has the best chance to earn a No. 1 seed (79.7%) and a first-round bye (50.7%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. If Arch Manning continues to improve and can find ways to execute the explosive plays he had on Saturday against SEC competition, the Longhorns will again be one of the toughest teams to beat in the SEC.
Why they could be here: Arch Manning and the Longhorns got what they needed — a convincing win against an overmatched opponent and a shot of confidence. But a lopsided win against now 0-2 San Jose State isn’t going to give Texas the boost it needs in the selection committee meeting room. The Longhorns won’t have another opportunity against a ranked opponent until their SEC opener on Oct. 4 at Florida — if the Gators are still a Top 25 team after losing at home to South Florida. The offensive improvement from Week 1 to Week 2, though, is something committee members would notice and continue to track. After a slow start, the Longhorns scored three touchdowns in three minutes and 12 seconds. Manning had four touchdowns on 10 completions at one point in the first half.
Why they could be lower: It’s hard to see the committee putting Texas lower during a week in which other contenders also played lower-caliber opponents.
Need to know: If Texas doesn’t lock up a spot in the CFP as the SEC champ, it should still have a strong enough résumé as a two-loss team to earn an at-large bid. Where it gets a little tricky is with a third loss, and that’s where not having a nonconference win against a Power 4 opponent would enter the committee’s discussion. ESPN’s FPI, though, projects Texas to finish as a two-loss team.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia. This could be a preview of the SEC championship game (again). ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 54% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Irish were idle following their 27-24 season-opening loss at Miami, and the selection committee doesn’t typically move teams that don’t play — unless it’s a result of shuffling around them. The loss to the Canes didn’t knock Notre Dame out of the top 10 because it was close and on the road to a ranked team capable of winning the ACC.
Why they could be lower: Simply because other teams have won two games.
Need to know: How Notre Dame’s opponents fare is critical to the selection process, and it helped the Irish (albeit slightly for now) that Boise State rebounded from its season-opening loss to South Florida. The better the Broncos play, the more respect Notre Dame will earn in the committee meeting room if it beats them on Oct. 4.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. USC. ESPN’s FPI projects Notre Dame will win out and has the second-best chance to do so behind Ohio State. The rivalry game against the Trojans, though, is the closest thing remaining to a coin toss. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 56.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: For the second straight week, the Illini scored at least 45 points, and this time they did it on the road against a respectable Duke team that won nine games last year. It was a convincing nonconference win on the same night South Carolina struggled to get its offense going early at home against South Carolina State. Iowa State garnered some consideration for this spot after its rivalry win against Iowa, but it didn’t help the Cyclones that Kansas State lost to Army (which also lost to Tarleton State). The selection committee considers opponents’ opponents. The Illini’s win wasn’t flawless, but they’re a veteran team that was able to capitalize on Duke’s mistakes on a night when other contenders either beat up on weaker teams or struggled against them.
Why they could be lower: Illinois led by just one at halftime and was aided by five Duke turnovers. South Carolina has a similar nonconference win against an ACC team, as it opened with a win against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies also lost to Vanderbilt on Saturday.
Need to know: Illinois doesn’t play Michigan, Oregon or Penn State during the regular season. That doesn’t mean the schedule is easy, but it’s manageable enough to earn an at-large spot if Illinois looks the part of a playoff team and doesn’t win the Big Ten.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State an 81.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: A nonconference win against a ranked Big Ten opponent will earn respect in the selection committee meeting room. It also came on a day when Arizona State struggled against Mississippi State, one of the SEC’s lower-tier teams, and Florida lost to South Florida at home. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s defense got enough pressure on Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to disrupt the Wolverines’ passing game. Sooners quarterback John Mateer accounted for two rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdown but wasn’t flawless.
Why they could be lower: The Sooners got an upgrade in Mateer, but he can’t do everything. The dual-threat quarterback led the team in passing and rushing, but Oklahoma will need more from its ground game against the SEC schedule.
Need to know: This head-to-head result could come into play later if the Sooners and Michigan are competing for an at-large spot. It’s a tiebreaker in the committee meeting room, and as long as their records are the same, OU will have the edge on Michigan. If Oklahoma is going to stay in the playoff race, though, it has to move up in the ranking, because right now it would be bumped out to make room for the Big 12 champ or the highest-ranked champion from the Group of 5.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 82.9% chance to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 LSU (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 USF (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Penn State
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Tennessee
No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 USF/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Penn State winner vs. No. 3 LSU
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Tennessee winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Sports
How big wins by Oregon, Oklahoma and South Florida shuffle the bowl picture
Published
5 hours agoon
September 8, 2025By
admin
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Kyle Bonagura
CloseKyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
-
Mark Schlabach
CloseMark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
Sep 7, 2025, 12:20 PM ET
While Week 2 of the college football season did not offer the blockbuster matchups we saw in Week 1, it nonetheless packed a significant punch.
The biggest blows were delivered by South Florida, Oklahoma and Oregon, which scored significant wins that boosted their standing in the College Football Playoff pecking order. But there were plenty of other results — some upsets, some near-misses and some less-than-stellar victories — that impacted the overall bowl picture.
As in last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Georgia
Bonagura: No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State at No. 7 Texas
Bonagura: No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Notre Dame
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: Welcome to the party, South Florida. After dominating Boise State in Week 1, the Bulls backed that up by shocking Florida 18-16. That’s two wins against ranked opponents to start the season, and while the jury remains out on how good Boise State and Florida actually are, no other Group of 5 team can claim as good a start. And for that reason, USF earns the No. 5 projected-champion spot this week.
The other big move this week is Oklahoma, which jumped into picture with a strong showing against Michigan. The John Mateer pickup has worked out as designed so far, and with Temple, Auburn and Kent State up next on the schedule, the expectation here is that the Sooners will take a 5-0 record into the Red River Rivalry game with Texas on Oct. 11.
Schlabach: Most of the top CFP contenders beat up on lesser opponents this week, but there was some shakeup in my top 12 because of a couple of surprising results. I dropped Clemson and Utah for Oklahoma and Iowa State. The Tigers struggled to put away Troy 27-16 at home (the Trojans led 16-0 late in the second quarter), which was probably a result of a hangover from a season-opening loss to LSU.
Utah is still one of the top teams in the Big 12, but I thought it was appropriate to reward the Cyclones for their 16-13 victory over Iowa on Saturday. Likewise for Oklahoma, which was impressive in its 24-13 win over Michigan at home. With a stingy defense and Mateer running the offense, the Sooners could be a serious CFP player this season.
South Florida also gets my Group of 5 conference champion pick after it stunned Florida in the Swamp. If USF can somehow make it three in a row at No. 5 Miami next week, it would be in the driver’s seat for a CFP bid.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Miami
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 LSU
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: Oregon didn’t just beat Oklahoma State — the Ducks demoralized the Cowboys. No living person was around the last time Oklahoma State lost by as many points, underscoring how lopsided the 69-3 win was. A quarterfinal matchup between the Ducks and Texas would be appointment viewing, but there are really no bad possibilities for this round — at least at this point in the season. This is another benefit of the change to not grant the byes to the top four conference champions. It ensures better matchups in the quarters.
Schlabach: The top six teams in my bracket remain unchanged, although I did shuffle the order after Georgia looked sloppy in its 28-6 victory against FCS program Austin Peay at home. The Bulldogs lost two fumbles and couldn’t score from the 1-yard line on three straight plays at the end of the first half. It wasn’t the kind of performance Georgia coach Kirby Smart wanted going into next week’s SEC opener at Tennessee.
I dropped the Bulldogs from No. 4 to No. 6 in the seedings, behind No. 4 Miami and No. 5 Oregon. The Ducks had one of the most impressive performances of the week with their 69-3 demolition of Oklahoma State. Oregon piled up 631 yards of offense and returned two interceptions for touchdowns, handing Mike Gundy the worst loss in his 20-year tenure at his alma mater.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 LSU
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: As the SEC and Big Ten arms race continues, just imagine the bragging rights that will come when one of the conferences sends two teams to the championship game for the first time in the expanded playoff era. Both leagues have a chance to achieve that this year, but right now — even though it’s way too early in the season to have a real sense of anything — the Big Ten looks like it has better odds. My current projection has Ohio State and Oregon playing for it all, a repeat of last year’s quarterfinal win by the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.
Schlabach: Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon rolled this week, while LSU looked a little lethargic in its 23-7 win against Louisiana Tech. The Tigers might have still been celebrating their 17-10 win at Clemson in Week 1. They’re going to have to be more consistent if they’re going to be a legitimate CFP title contender.
Like Kyle, I am projecting a rematch of last season’s Oregon-Ohio State Rose Bowl, but I have them meeting in the semifinals, with the Buckeyes again prevailing.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Alabama State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Duke
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. Virginia
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Washington State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Iowa
Schlabach: BYU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Duke vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wyoming vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Texas A&M
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. North Carolina
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Auburn
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Alabama
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cal
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Missouri
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Carolina
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State
Sports
Illini, Noles crack AP top 10; USF enters at No. 18
Published
5 hours agoon
September 8, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Sep 7, 2025, 02:19 PM ET
Ohio State, Penn State and LSU remained the top three teams in The Associated Press Top 25 college football poll Sunday, while Oregon is back in the top five and South Florida is ranked for the first time in seven years.
There was some movement inside the top 10, but the biggest changes came from Nos. 11 to 25.
Ohio State, whose 70-0 win over Grambling was among a bevy of weekend blowouts, received 57 of the 65 first-place votes from the media panel. Penn State got five first-place votes, and LSU got two.
No. 4 Oregon, which thrashed Oklahoma State, received the other first place-vote and flip-flopped with Georgia. The Bulldogs’ uninspired win over FCS foe Austin Peay caused them to slip to No. 6 behind Miami.
Texas, Notre Dame, Illinois and Florida State round out the top 10, with the latter two teams in the top 10 for the first time this season.
Illinois has its first top-10 ranking since it was No. 7 in December 2001. Florida State, meanwhile, climbed four spots to its highest ranking since it was No. 10 in the 2024 preseason poll.
Clemson, which trailed Troy 16-0 midway through the second quarter before winning 27-16, slipped from No. 8 to No. 12.
Oklahoma earned a five-rung promotion to No. 13, its highest ranking in two years, after its win over Michigan. The Wolverines dropped to No. 23. Tennessee jumped seven spots to No. 15, and No. 16 Texas A&M and No. 17 Ole Miss each moved up three.
The biggest upward mover was No. 18 South Florida, which was eight spots out of the Top 25 last week. The Bulls pulled the upset of the day with their 18-16 win over then-No. 13 Florida. That followed their 34-7 home win over then-No. 25 Boise State.
The Bulls’ ascent under third-year coach Alex Golesh is more of a revival than a breakthrough. They have their first ranking since 2018 under Charlie Strong. Jim Leavitt had the 2008 team as high as No. 10, and his 2007 team spent three straight weeks in the top 10 and was No. 2 after a 6-0 start.
No. 24 Auburn and No. 25 Missouri cracked the rankings along with USF.
Auburn followed a two-touchdown win at Baylor with an easy victory over Ball State and is in the Top 25 for the first time under third-year coach Hugh Freeze.
Until Sunday, No. 19 Alabama and Auburn had not appeared in the Top 25 at the same time since November 2021.
Missouri, which appeared in all but two polls last season, is back in after a win over Border War rival Kansas.
Arizona State, which was ranked 12th, Florida (13th) and SMU (17th) all tumbled out of the Top 25.
The Sun Devils erased a 17-point deficit and led in the final minute before losing at Mississippi State. Florida’s loss put heat back on coach Billy Napier. SMU also blew a lead in the last minute and lost to Baylor in two overtimes.
The 16-team SEC is the first league to have 11 teams in the Top 25.
CONFERENCE CALL
SEC: 11 teams (Nos. 3, 6, 7, 11, 13, 15, 16, 17, 19, 24, 25)
Big Ten: 6 (Nos. 1, 2, 4, 9, 22, 23)
ACC: 3 (Nos. 5, 10, 12)
Big 12: 3 (Nos. 14, 20, 21)
American: 1 (No. 18)
Independent: 1 (No. 8)
RANKED VS. RANKED
No. 18 South Florida at No. 5 Miami: Bulls will try to become the fifth team, and first since Miami in 1987, to open a season with three wins over ranked opponents.
No. 6 Georgia at No. 15 Tennessee: First big test for Volunteers QB Joey Aguilar. Bulldogs go for ninth straight win in the series.
No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 8 Notre Dame: Irish out to avoid second 0-2 start in four years. Jeremiyah Love scored late tiebreaking touchdown for Notre Dame in last year’s season-opening meeting in College Station.
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