Who’s No. 5? USC or LSU? Key questions for new CFP rankings
Week 12 was a “gut it out, just get the W” kind of week, with each of the top four teams staring down too-close-for-comfort situations in their respective games.
Because all four won ugly, not much, if anything, should change Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET when the College Football Playoff selection committee announces its fourth of six rankings. No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 TCU should hold steady at the top as the nation’s only remaining undefeated teams.
The No. 5 spot will be the most interesting, as one-loss USC and two-loss LSU can both make a case to replace Tennessee following the Vols’ stunning 63-38 loss to unranked South Carolina on Saturday night.
Only one game remains in the regular season before the top contenders have a chance to punctuate their résumés with a conference title. No Week 13 game will have a greater impact on Selection Day than The Game, the annual rivalry matchup between Ohio State and Michigan, which will determine the winner of the Big Ten’s East division.
What the committee reveals Tuesday night, though, will provide more hints at how the group will sort everything out on Selection Day. Here’s what to look for, along with Adam Rittenberg’s case for USC being ranked higher than LSU and the top four picks of ESPN’s college football reporters.
Who’s No. 5?
LSU will remain the committee’s highest-ranked two-loss team, but while the Tigers were beating up on UAB 41-10, USC was clinching a spot in the Pac-12 championship game with a 48-45 instant classic against crosstown rival No. 16 UCLA. The Bruins now have three losses and will drop in the new rankings, but they should still be a CFP top 25 win for USC. According to ESPN’s strength of record metric, USC is ranked No. 9 and still looking up at No. 8 LSU.
The selection committee doesn’t look ahead, so while USC still has two opportunities to impress the committee in games against Notre Dame and the Pac-12 championship, the Trojans might not have done enough yet to usurp LSU. USC’s best wins are against Oregon State and UCLA. LSU’s best wins are against Alabama and Ole Miss, which has lost three of its past four. LSU’s 40-13 home loss to Tennessee now looks worse. If USC jumps LSU for that No. 5 spot, the loser of Ohio State-Michigan and Clemson Tigers should be concerned.
Does the loser of The Game really stand a chance?
The climb would appear more daunting if USC lands the fifth spot Tuesday — and if TCU happens to jump Michigan to No. 3. The committee determined last week that Georgia separated itself from the rest of the country, but there was discussion about Nos. 2, 3 and 4 before the committee ultimately settled on the status quo. Will TCU’s second road win change that, even though it wasn’t the Frogs’ best performance? If TCU jumps Michigan, it will put more pressure on the Wolverines to win Saturday. According to ESPN’s analytics, Michigan’s nonconference lineup of home games against Colorado State, Hawai’i and UConn was the second weakest in the FBS.
With Tennessee’s loss, the Big Ten has the best chance to send multiple teams to the CFP. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the Big Ten has a 67% chance to have multiple teams, while the SEC has a 29% chance. The reality in the committee meeting room, though, is that Ohio State would have a better chance than Michigan as East Division runner-up because of its win against Notre Dame. The Buckeyes’ win against the Irish would have to look better than whatever USC does Saturday to its rival because if the Trojans run the table and win the Pac-12, that common opponent will be a factor in the debate.
Will Clemson finish its season with two Top 25 opponents?
At No. 9, one-loss Clemson is currently stuck behind two-loss teams LSU and Alabama. Will Clemson also be looking up at two-loss Tennessee, too?! That would emphatically indicate Clemson is in a precarious position. In strength of record, Clemson, at No. 7, ranks behind No. 6 Tennessee.
Regardless, the Tigers need help, and they could get it Tuesday if four-loss South Carolina sneaks into the CFP top 25 after its resounding upset of Tennessee. Of course, that helps only if Clemson beats its in-state rival Saturday. Clemson’s best win currently is against No. 19 Florida State, followed by No. 24 NC State, but the Wolfpack lost their second straight game Saturday at Louisville and should drop out of the rankings Tuesday.
That leaves No. 13 North Carolina, which will face Clemson in the ACC championship game.
How far will the two-loss Tar Heels tumble after their embarrassing 21-17 loss to Georgia Tech (5-6)? A win for Clemson over the Tar Heels won’t impress the committee as much as the opportunities TCU and USC will have in their respective conference title games.
What the committee will — and should — do
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Paul Finebaum discusses USC’s path to the playoff after a win over UCLA in Week 12.
The top four teams in the CFP rankings survived Week 12 despite facing varying degrees of adversity. The committee isn’t likely to shuffle the order, so the real intrigue comes down to No. 5 after Tennessee’s historic loss at unranked South Carolina. Other than Georgia, Tennessee seemingly had the most secure path to the CFP until Saturday night. The Vols will be dropping in Tuesday night’s ranking, but which team replaces them at No. 5? That leads to our weekly debate.
What the CFP selection committee will do: Put LSU at No. 5 over USC
What the CFP selection committee should do: Put USC at No. 5 over LSU
The initial rankings had USC ahead of LSU, but the teams flipped after LSU’s dramatic win against Alabama. LSU remained one spot ahead of USC in last week’s rundown and didn’t do anything to hurt its standing Saturday night, pulling away from UAB in the second quarter for a 41-10 victory. The expectation here is that the committee will simply drop Tennessee and move up LSU and USC, in that order.
But how should USC be viewed after its dramatic 48-45 win over UCLA at the Rose Bowl? The UCLA game brought out the best in USC’s offense and quarterback Caleb Williams, who strengthened his case in the Heisman Trophy race with 470 passing yards. Until Saturday night, USC’s profile had been defined by wins over mostly bad teams and a respectable road loss to Utah. The Trojans now have two notable road victories: over UCLA and Oregon State, which could enter the committee’s top 20 Tuesday.
To be clear, USC doesn’t have a win that pops as much as LSU’s over Alabama. The Trojans’ best opportunities are ahead, against Notre Dame this week and, ideally, Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. But their top two wins occurred on the road, while LSU’s best road victories have come against Arkansas and Florida, two 6-5 teams that are under .500 in SEC play.
USC’s lone loss, to Utah, is quite similar to LSU’s 24-23 season-opening setback against Florida State, a three-loss team that should be slotted around the same spot as Utah in the new rankings. The only difference is USC’s loss occurred on the road, while LSU fell to FSU in New Orleans, hardly a true neutral site.
USC also doesn’t have a second loss, especially not a 27-point setback at home like the one LSU endured against Tennessee last month. Of note: Since dismantling LSU in Death Valley, Tennessee dropped its next two road games by a combined score of 90-51.
LSU’s second-best win, a 45-20 triumph over Ole Miss on Oct. 22, also has been devalued. The Rebels were largely noncompetitive in Saturday’s loss at Arkansas and likely will be slotted around Oregon State in Tuesday’s rankings.
A case can be made that LSU is more balanced than USC, which hasn’t stopped many offenses when it isn’t taking the ball away. LSU has risen to 20th nationally in points allowed, while USC languishes at 68th. But USC boasts a similar edge on offense, especially after Saturday night’s magic.
These are comparable teams, but USC now carries the stronger profile because of what has happened on the road — two good wins and a respectable loss. LSU can’t quite match that. — Adam Rittenberg
ESPN reporters’ top-four picks
Blake Baumgartner: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Bill Connelly: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Heather Dinich: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
David Hale: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Chris Low: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Harry Lyles Jr.: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Ryan McGee: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. USC
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Alex Scarborough: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
Tom VanHaaren: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
Dave Wilson: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU
For the first time since the turn of the century, MLB’s All-Star Game will be held in Atlanta — the first ever at Truist Park since its opening in 2017.
All-Star festivities begin July 11 and culminate in the Midsummer Classic on July 15, as the National League looks to gain just its second win since 2013 while the American League aims to extend its dominance.
Following the first phase of All-Star voting, we know the top overall vote-getters in each league — Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani — automatically earned the starting spot at their positions, outfield and designated hitter, respectively. Now, the starting lineups have been revealed, with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers leading the way each with three starters, followed by the Chicago Cubs with two. Four players named as starters — Cal Raleigh, Jacob Wilson, Ryan O’Hearn and Pete Crow-Armstrong — are first-time All-Stars.
Stay tuned, as we’ll have everything you need to navigate All-Star Week — from event schedules and full rosters to All-Star Game analysis.
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All-Star schedule
(All times ET)
July 2: MLB All-Star starters reveal at 7 p.m. on ESPN
July 6: MLB All-Star full rosters announced at 5 p.m. on ESPN
July 11: HBCU Swingman Classic at 8 p.m. on MLB Network
July 13: MLB Draft at 6 p.m. on ESPN and MLB Network
July 14: MLB All-Star Celebrity Softball Game at 1 p.m. on MLB Network
July 14: MLB Home Run Derby at 8 p.m. on ESPN
July 15: All-Star Red Carpet Show at 2 p.m. on MLB Network
July 15: MLB All-Star Game at 7 p.m. on FOX
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Jesse Rogers
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, MLB’s home run leader, and American League Rookie of the Year candidate Jacob Wilson of the Athletics will be in the starting lineup for the All-Star Game on July 15 at Truist Park in Atlanta, it was announced Wednesday.
Raleigh, nicknamed “The Big Dumper,” earned his first All-Star selection and starting spot on the back of his 33 first-half home runs and MLB-leading 71 RBIs (through Tuesday). Wilson, the Athletics’ shortstop, was voted in after a dynamic first half in which he has hit .339, second in all of MLB, through Tuesday’s games.
“Just trying to stay as consistent as I can — my work, preparation going into games and my approach at the plate,” Raleigh told ESPN on Wednesday. “It’s been working out so far, and I just got to keep it rolling and keep my head down.
“… This is all I’ve ever known — this city, Seattle. They’ve taken me in with open arms and I’m very blessed and very lucky to have them in my corner. They’ve been awesome and they’ve always been there for me in this organization. It’s great that I’m going to get to represent them, like I said, in the [Home Run] Derby and the All-Star Game. Hopefully I can make them proud.”
The 23-year-old Wilson, whose father, Jack, was an All-Star for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2004, is the lone rookie in either league to be voted into the starting lineup after edging the Royals‘ Bobby Witt Jr. 52% to 48%. He is the first rookie shortstop to win an All-Star fan election and just the second to start an All-Star Game after Baltimore’s Ron Hansen, who started both games in 1960.
Three players from the Detroit Tigers — second baseman Gleyber Torres and outfielders Riley Greene and Javier Baez — will join them in the AL’s starting lineup, while the National League starters are led by three representatives from the Los Angeles Dodgers: first baseman Freddie Freeman, catcher Will Smith and DH Shohei Ohtani, who received the most votes among NL players during Phase 1 of the voting.
Rounding out the starting lineup for the AL: Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez and Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn. They’ll all join New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, who was the AL’s top vote-getter in Phase 1.
Joining the Dodgers trio in the NL starting lineup will be Chicago Cubs outfielders Pete Crow-Armstrong (first selection) and Kyle Tucker (fourth), Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte, San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado and New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor, who was named an All-Star starter for the first time.
Despite missing the first seven weeks of the season, Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. also earned a starting nod after getting the most votes at the position during Phase 2 voting.
There are nine first-time starters for the second time in three years.
“I am overly grateful right now,” Crow-Armstrong, who has 21 home runs and 62 RBIs so far this season, told ESPN. “It’s pretty cool. … That’s definitely the highlight of the year so far.
“… I think what I kind of surprised myself with is obviously the power production, but in this specific time span. You know, pulling the ball in the air is something I’ve worked on for my whole pro career, and we’re really starting to make some good improvements here. But I think inherently I’ve always had enough confidence to produce a year like this.”
The Tigers had three fan-elected starters for the fourth time in history, matching a franchise best also accomplished in 1984, 1985 and 2007. Meanwhile, the three fan elections for the Dodgers marks their most in a single season since the team had four fan-elected starters for the 1980 Midsummer Classic: Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes, Bill Russell and Reggie Smith.
Freeman, 35, was picked for the ninth time — fifth as a starter — and is the oldest player on either team. He will return to Atlanta, where he starred from 2010 to 2021.
For Torres and Baez, it marks the first time since 2019 that they are All-Stars. Baez, meanwhile, will be making his third All-Star start at his third different position, having started for the NL at second base (2018) and shortstop (2019) while with the Cubs.
Baez edged the Los Angeles Angels‘ Mike Trout 26% to 24% in the closest vote.
Overall, 13 MLB teams are represented among the 18 positional starters, including seven clubs in the AL and six in the NL.
Judge, Ramirez and Machado each earned their seventh All-Star selection.
Under rules that began in 2022, voting was split into two stages, and the second phase ran from Monday to Thursday.
Pitchers and reserves for both teams — totaling 23 for each side — will be determined through a combination of player ballot choices and selections made by the MLB commissioner’s office. They’ll be announced Sunday (5 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
The Texas Rangers reinstated first baseman Jake Burger from the 10-day injured list before Wednesday night’s series finale against the visiting Baltimore Orioles.
Burger, 29, missed the Rangers’ past 10 games with a left oblique strain. He is batting .220 with 10 homers and 29 RBIs in 65 games this season, his first with Texas.
Burger is a career .246 hitter with 82 home runs and 214 RBIs in 409 games with the Chicago White Sox (2021-23), Miami Marlins (2023-24) and Rangers.
The Rangers optioned All-Star third baseman Josh Jung to Triple-A Round Rock in a corresponding move. Jung, 27, is batting .237 with eight homers and 35 RBIs in 75 games this season.
Jung is hitting .152 with one homer, eight RBIs and 13 strikeouts in his last 11 games.
Drafted No. 8 overall by Texas in 2019, Jung made the American League All-Star team in 2023 and is a career .252 hitter with 43 home runs and 135 RBIs in 269 games.
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