Indyref2: The four possible outcomes as Scotland awaits Supreme Court’s ruling
The intense discussion over Scotland’s future is reaching another, major milestone.
Politicians on both sides of Scotland’s independence debate are waiting with bated breath for the judgment from the Supreme Court on whether the Scottish parliament has the power to legislate for a second referendum without the approval of Westminster.
Follow updates in the Politics Hub
Five judges – who have spent the last month examining 8,000 pages of legal arguments – are set to deliver their determination at 9.45am today.
There are four possible outcomes.
Scottish government wins
If the Scottish government wins, activists say it would essentially trigger the beginning of a referendum campaign.
It would allow Nicola Sturgeon to table the draft referendum bill at the Scottish parliament, where it would pass because the majority of MSPs are independence supporters.
An emboldened first minister would demand renewed talks with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to seek the “gold standard” agreement similar to 2014.
It is likely these talks would be fraught.
UK government wins
The second scenario is the court sides with the UK government and rules consent is needed from Westminster to re-run a referendum.
Downing Street would feel its position has been vindicated, but Ms Sturgeon is likely to argue it is an attack on democracy and “proves” Scotland is “trapped in an unequal union”.
The first minister has been clear that she will use the next general election on the single issue of whether Scotland should become independent.
Her ministers say it would be a “de-facto” referendum; their opponents say they will boycott any such scenario.
Court makes no ruling
Another possible outcome is the court decides it is unable to rule on a Holyrood-created referendum because the planned legislation is still in draft form.
Court gives a view – even if premature
And even though UK government lawyers urged the judges to hold back on ruling on hypothetical scenarios, they might decide to offer a view to clear things up once and for all.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘Fiction’ of union if referendum blocked
How did we get here?
In the run-up to the 2014 Scottish referendum, the former first minister Alex Salmond and then prime minister David Cameron signed an official agreement to allow the vote to take place.
The eventual outcome was Scotland voting to stay in the United Kingdom.
Since then, Ms Sturgeon’s SNP government has won every Scottish election and put a referendum commitment in each manifesto.
Ms Sturgeon argued, among other issues, that Scotland was “dragged” out of the EU despite voting to remain.
She insists her party has a mandate to test the electorate on the question of independence on 19 October 2023.
However, this time the Conservative government at Westminster is not agreeing to a second vote.
Successive prime ministers have said the 2014 vote was decisive, and the SNP should instead focus on improving domestic challenges in education and the health service.
Rishi Sunak and Nicola Sturgeon
Why this ruling matters
There has been a deadlock between Holyrood and London for years.
The political stand-off landed in the Supreme Court in October, where the Scottish government sought clarity on Edinburgh holding a vote without the consent of London.
It argued any referendum would be “entirely advisory” with “no legal consequences”.
UK government lawyers insisted it was crystal clear Holyrood does not hold the power for a second vote, and urged judges to throw out the case.
They argued it would be “premature” to rule on something which is only a proposed bill at this stage.
The Supreme Court’s role is to look at the matter only from a legal perspective.
It cannot be underestimated how important this ruling is because nearly every day-to-day issue in Scotland is seen through the prism of the constitution.
It is arguably the biggest political elephant in the room, lingering over domestic debate.
Almost every poll suggests Scots are split down the middle on the future of the country, and it’s unclear whether this judgment will help settle the matter.
World
Trump criticises Putin after potentially ‘historic’ meeting with Zelenskyy before Pope’s funeral
Donald Trump has criticised Vladimir Putin and suggested a shift in his stance towards the Russian president after a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the Pope’s funeral.
The Ukrainian president said the one-on-one talks could prove to be “historic” after pictures showed him sitting opposite Mr Trump, around two feet apart, in the large marble hall inside St Peter’s Basilica.
The US president said he doubted his Russian counterpart’s willingness to end the war after leaving Rome after the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican.
Follow live updates: 200,000 mourn at Vatican
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said “there was no reason” for the Russian president “to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days”.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
He added: “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!”
The meeting between the US and Ukrainian leaders was their first face-to-face encounter since a very public row in the Oval Office in February.
Mr Zelenskyy said he had a good meeting with Mr Trump in which they talked about the defence of the Ukrainian people, a full and unconditional ceasefire, and a durable and lasting peace that would prevent the war restarting.
Other images released by the Ukrainian president’s office show Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron were present for part of the talks, which were described as “positive” by the French presidency.
Mr Zelenskyy‘s spokesman said the meeting lasted for around 15 minutes and he and Mr Trump had agreed to hold further discussions later on Saturday.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in the Basilica
But the US president left Rome for Washington on Air Force One soon after the funeral without any other talks having taken place.
The Ukrainian president’s office said there was no second meeting in Rome because of the tight schedule of both leaders, although he had separate discussions with Mr Starmer and Mr Macron.
The French president said in a post on X “Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire” and that a so-called coalition of the willing, led by the UK and France, would continue working to achieve a lasting peace.
There was applause from some of the other world leaders in attendance at the Vatican when Mr Zelenskyy walked out of St Peter’s Basilica after stopping in front of the pontiff’s coffin to pay his respects.
Donald Trump and the Ukrainian president met for the first time since their Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
Sir Tony Brenton, the former British ambassador to Russia, said the event presents diplomatic opportunities, including the “biggest possible meeting” between Mr Trump and the Ukrainian leader.
He told Sky News it could mark “an important step” in starting the peace process between Russia and Ukraine.
Professor Father Francesco Giordano told Sky News the meeting is being called “Pope Francis’s miracle” by members of the clergy, adding: “There’s so many things that happened today – it was just overwhelming.”
The bilateral meeting comes after Mr Trump’s peace negotiator Steve Witkoff held talks with Mr Putin at the Kremlin.
They discussed “the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine”, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.
👉 Listen to Sky News Daily on your podcast app 👈
Russia and Ukraine have not held direct talks since the early weeks of the war, which began in February 2022.
Mr Trump has claimed a deal to end the war is “very close” and has urged Mr Zelenskyy to “get it done” in a post on his Truth Social platform.
He has previously warned both sides his administration would walk away from its efforts to achieve a peace if the two sides do not agree a deal soon.
Meanwhile, the Polish armed forces said a Russian military helicopter violated its airspace over the Baltic Sea on Friday evening.
“The nature of the incident indicates that Russia is testing the readiness of our air defence systems,” they said in a post on X.
On an extraordinary day, remarkable pictures on the margins that capture what may be a turning point for the world.
In a corner of St Peter’s Basilica before the funeral of Pope Francis, the leaders of America and Ukraine sit facing each other in two solitary chairs.
They look like confessor and sinner except we cannot tell which one is which.
Leaning forward hands together in their laps, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy stare at each other in one photo.
In another, the Ukrainian president seems to be remonstrating with the US president. This is their first encounter since their infamous bust-up in the Oval Office.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
Other pictures show the moment their French and British counterparts introduced the two men. There is a palpable sense of nervousness in the way the leaders engage.
We do not know what the two presidents said in their brief meeting.
But in the mind of the Ukrainian leader will be the knowledge President Trump has this week said America will reward Russia for its unprovoked brutal invasion of his country, under any peace deal.
Mr Trump has presented Ukraine and Russia with a proposal and ultimatum so one-sided it could have been written in the Kremlin.
Kyiv must surrender the land Russia has taken by force, Crimea forever, the rest at least for now. And it must submit to an act of extortion, a proposed deal that would hand over half its mineral wealth effectively to America.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Afterwards, Zelenskyy said it had been a good meeting that could turn out to be historic “if we reach results together”.
They had talked, he said, about the defence of Ukraine, a full and unconditional ceasefire and a durable and lasting peace that will prevent a war restarting.
The Trump peace proposal includes only unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine from countries that do not include the US. It rules out any membership of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s allies are watching closely to see if Mr Trump will apply any pressure on Vladimir Putin, let alone punish him for recent bloody attacks on Ukraine.
Or will he simply walk away if the proposal fails, blaming Ukrainian intransigence, however outrageously, before moving onto a rapprochement with Moscow.
If he does, America’s role as guarantor of international security will be seen effectively as over.
This could be the week we see the world order as we have known it since the end of the Second World War buried, as well as a pope.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway