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The intense discussion over Scotland’s future is reaching another, major milestone.

Politicians on both sides of Scotland’s independence debate are waiting with bated breath for the judgment from the Supreme Court on whether the Scottish parliament has the power to legislate for a second referendum without the approval of Westminster.

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Five judges – who have spent the last month examining 8,000 pages of legal arguments – are set to deliver their determination at 9.45am today.

There are four possible outcomes.

Scottish government wins

If the Scottish government wins, activists say it would essentially trigger the beginning of a referendum campaign.

It would allow Nicola Sturgeon to table the draft referendum bill at the Scottish parliament, where it would pass because the majority of MSPs are independence supporters.

An emboldened first minister would demand renewed talks with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to seek the “gold standard” agreement similar to 2014.

It is likely these talks would be fraught.

UK government wins

The second scenario is the court sides with the UK government and rules consent is needed from Westminster to re-run a referendum.

Downing Street would feel its position has been vindicated, but Ms Sturgeon is likely to argue it is an attack on democracy and “proves” Scotland is “trapped in an unequal union”.

The first minister has been clear that she will use the next general election on the single issue of whether Scotland should become independent.

Her ministers say it would be a “de-facto” referendum; their opponents say they will boycott any such scenario.

Court makes no ruling

Another possible outcome is the court decides it is unable to rule on a Holyrood-created referendum because the planned legislation is still in draft form.

Court gives a view – even if premature

And even though UK government lawyers urged the judges to hold back on ruling on hypothetical scenarios, they might decide to offer a view to clear things up once and for all.

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‘Fiction’ of union if referendum blocked

How did we get here?

In the run-up to the 2014 Scottish referendum, the former first minister Alex Salmond and then prime minister David Cameron signed an official agreement to allow the vote to take place.

The eventual outcome was Scotland voting to stay in the United Kingdom.

Since then, Ms Sturgeon’s SNP government has won every Scottish election and put a referendum commitment in each manifesto.

Ms Sturgeon argued, among other issues, that Scotland was “dragged” out of the EU despite voting to remain.

She insists her party has a mandate to test the electorate on the question of independence on 19 October 2023.

However, this time the Conservative government at Westminster is not agreeing to a second vote.

Successive prime ministers have said the 2014 vote was decisive, and the SNP should instead focus on improving domestic challenges in education and the health service.

Rishi Sunak and Nicola Sturgeon meet for the first time since he became prime minister.
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Rishi Sunak and Nicola Sturgeon

Why this ruling matters

There has been a deadlock between Holyrood and London for years.

The political stand-off landed in the Supreme Court in October, where the Scottish government sought clarity on Edinburgh holding a vote without the consent of London.

It argued any referendum would be “entirely advisory” with “no legal consequences”.

UK government lawyers insisted it was crystal clear Holyrood does not hold the power for a second vote, and urged judges to throw out the case.

They argued it would be “premature” to rule on something which is only a proposed bill at this stage.

The Supreme Court’s role is to look at the matter only from a legal perspective.

It cannot be underestimated how important this ruling is because nearly every day-to-day issue in Scotland is seen through the prism of the constitution.

It is arguably the biggest political elephant in the room, lingering over domestic debate.

Almost every poll suggests Scots are split down the middle on the future of the country, and it’s unclear whether this judgment will help settle the matter.

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Update given on health condition of Slovakia’s PM – as suspect in court over attempted assassination

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Update given on health condition of Slovakia's PM - as suspect in court over attempted assassination

Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico remains in a stable but serious condition as the man accused of attempting to assassinate him appeared in court for the first time.

Health minister Zuzana Dolinkova said further two-hour surgery on Friday “contributed to a positive prognosis” for the 59-year-old, who was shot five times at point blank range while greeting supporters in the former mining town of Handlova on Wednesday.

Policemen guard the area as convoy brings the suspect, in shooting of Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico, to court in Pezinok, Slovakia, Saturday, May 18, 2024. Officials in Slovakia say Prime Minister Robert Fico has undergone another operation two days after his assassination attempt and remains in serious condition. (AP Photo/Tomas Benedikovic)
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Pic: AP

However, although awake at the hospital in Banska Bystrica, where Mr Fico was taken by helicopter after being shot, his condition still made it impossible to transport him to the capital, Bratislava.

Read more:
Who is Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico?

Deputy prime minister Robert Kalinak has said there was no need to formally take over Mr Fico’s official duties.

The suspected gunman was tackled to the ground and arrested at the scene of the attack and the first assassination attempt of a European political leader for more than 20 years.

He has previously been named as 71-year-old Juraj Cintula, a former shopping centre security guard who also writes poetry.

More on Robert Fico

The special criminal court in Pezinok, a small town outside the capital, Bratislava, was guarded by officers wearing balaclavas and carrying automatic weapons for his court appearance.

Pic: AP
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The media were kept at a distance. Pic: AP

News media were not allowed in for the hearing and reporters were kept behind a gate outside.

Officers had taken the suspect, who has been charged with attempted murder, to his home in the town of Levice on Friday and seized a computer and some documents, according to local media.

The attack sent shockwaves throughout Europe and raised concerns over the already polarised and febrile political situation in Slovakia.

Slovakia's Health Minister Zuzana Dolinkova. Pic: Reuters
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Health minister Zuzana Dolinkova gave the latest update on the PM’s condition. Pic: Reuters

Mr Fico has long been a divisive figure.

His return to power last year on a pro-Russian, anti-American ticket fuelled worries among fellow EU and NATO members over the country’s direction.

Slovakia had previously been one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters, but on taking office Mr Fico halted arms supplies to the nation battling invading Russian forces.

Thousands of demonstrators have repeatedly rallied in the capital and around the country to protest against his policies.

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Bodies of three Israeli hostages killed at music festival recovered in Gaza

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Bodies of three Israeli hostages killed at music festival recovered in Gaza

The bodies of three Israeli hostage taken by Hamas have been recovered in Gaza.

The remains were discovered in an overnight operation carried out by Israel’s military and intelligence agency Shin Bet, said chief military spokesman Daniel Hagari.

Itzhak Gelerenter, 56, Amit Buskila, 28, and Shani Louk, 22, were killed at the Nova music festival on 7 October, with their bodies then taken into Gaza by Hamas militants.

Ms Louk’s body was seen face-down in a pick-up truck travelling through Gaza in a video that was shared widely on social media after the hostages were taken.

Israel-Gaza war latest updates

The Israeli military says it has recovered the body of Shani Louk from Gaza
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Shani Louk

Itzhak Gelerenter was murdered by Hamas on 7 October
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Itzhak Gelerenter

The body of Amit Buskila has been found by the Israeli military
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Amit Buskila

“They were celebrating life in the Nova music festival and they were murdered by Hamas,” said Mr Hagari.

He said their families have been notified.

“Our hearts go out to them, to the families at this difficult time. We will leave no stone unturned, we will do everything in our power to find our hostages and bring them home.”

The military did not give immediate details on where their bodies were found.

Ms Louk’s father has said the return of his daughter’s body to her family has been a form of closure.

Nissim Louk told the Israeli newspaper Haaretz his daughter “radiated light, to her and those who surrounded her, and in her death she still does”.

He added: “She is a symbol of the people of Israel, between light and darkness. Her inner and outer beauty that shone for all the world to see is a special one.”

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‘No respect’ for the world after Gaza horrors

Read more:
Hostages’ families urge Netanyahu to accept deal
Hamas releases video of hostages

Hostage’s parents tell him ‘stay strong’

In November, the brother of Ms Louk told Sky News of their last phone call as his sister tried to escape Hamas.

Speaking about the video that was circulated online after she was taken, Amit Louk said: “I never thought I was going to be in contact with this type of video, seeing my sister in that brutal position.

“And just in that moment, the whole family just crashed.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the deaths “heartbreaking”, saying: “We will return all of our hostages, both the living and the dead.”

Meanwhile, Professor Hagai Levine, a member of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, has said the recovery of the bodies is a “painful reminder” of those who are still in captivity.

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Child with rare genetic disorder stuck in Gaza

“We do not lose hope. We are preparing for the return of the hostages that are alive,” he added.

Israel has been operating in the Gaza Strip’s southern city of Rafah, where it says it has intelligence that hostages are being held.

Hamas-led militants killed around 1,200 people, mainly civilians, and abducted around 250 others in the 7 October attack.

Around half of those have since been freed, most in swaps for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel during a ceasefire in November.

Israel says around 100 hostages are still captive in Gaza, along with the bodies of around 30 more.

Israel’s campaign in Gaza since the attack has killed more than 35,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials.

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Gaza situation ‘a complete disaster’

Mr Netanyahu has vowed to both eliminate Hamas and bring all the hostages back.

He faces pressure to resign, and the US has threatened to scale back its support over the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

Israelis are divided into two main camps: those who want the government to put the war on hold and free the hostages, and others who think the hostages are an unfortunate price to pay for eradicating Hamas.

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Slovakia PM shooting: Friend of suspect recalls laughing with him just days before assassination attempt

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Slovakia PM shooting: Friend of suspect recalls laughing with him just days before assassination attempt

Mile L’Udovit is leaning on the front door of his apartment block when we meet, just as he has done so often since moving in four decades ago.

He was one of the original tenants of the tatty building and so was his dear friend Juraj Cintula – the man charged with trying to kill Slovakia’s prime minister.

Mile is at once shocked, bemused, appalled and bewildered.

“He’s a good friend,” he tells me. Both men are 71 years old and talked often. “He was a decent, polite man. A good worker. His wife is a professor and his kids were okay. He had a good reputation. Everything was okay.

“Nobody expected something like this to happen. No one could imagine it. That’s the worst thing about it.

“I spoke to him on Monday and we were having a laugh, like neighbours do. It’s so unpleasant.”

Juraj Cintula is the author of several poetry collections.
Pic: ENEX
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Suspect Juraj Cintula is the author of several poetry collections. Pic: ENEX

Building where the man who shot Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico reportedly lived, in Levice, Slovakia, Thursday, May 16, 2024. Pic: AP Photo/Denes Erdos
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The apartment block where L’Udovit and Cintula have lived for decades. Pic: AP Photo/Denes Erdos

He shakes his head and gestures up to Cintula’s apartment on the top of the building. “He will either die or get a life sentence. It’s going to be so hard for his family.”

Cintula has not yet been officially identified as the suspect, but it’s common knowledge in Slovakia.

Read more:
PM Fico’s background, beliefs and politics
What we know about the shooting suspect

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Video shows moment Slovak PM was shot

Armed police even brought him back to the apartment, dressed in a bulletproof jacket and helmet, to help gather evidence. So why, I ask Mile, did his old friend allegedly try to kill Robert Fico?

“You know, I can’t really say,” he replies thoughtfully. “We took politics as something to laugh at. But we kept our own opinions – he had his, I had mine.

“He was opposed to certain acts of the government and his opinions were quite different. But what was in his mind? Really, nobody knows.”

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