With two weeks left, there’s eight teams for four spots.
That’s the overly simplified version of the College Football Playoff landscape right now, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Of course, the positions of those eight teams are wildly different from one another, so that’s where we’re going to rely on the Predictor — which uses FPI projections and predicts the committee’s selection process based on its past behavior — to answer key questions about the playoff race as we near the finish line.
That would make three undefeated slam dunks in the first teams listed above and result in a battle for the final spot between Michigan, USC and Clemson.
This is close! And it would be a fascinating decision for the committee. Here’s where the Playoff Predictor lands:
Michigan: 52% USC: 31% Clemson: 23%
(Note: those numbers add up to more than 100% on the off-chance the committee decides to leave out TCU).
So why does the model lean toward one-loss Michigan over the two one-loss conference champs? Two key factors: résumé and team quality.
Outside of the conference championship, we project that an 11-1 Michigan would actually have a slightly superior Strength of Record than a 12-1 USC or 12-1 Clemson, though it is exceptionally close with the Trojans and could flip. Michigan is also, in FPI’s mind, the best team of the three — by a lot. The Wolverines are ranked No. 4 in FPI, while Clemson and USC trail at Nos. 9 and 14, respectively.
So from the model’s perspective it sees a team with the better FPI and SOR, and that’s usually the team that gets the better ranking. But the conference championship muddies the waters, which is why this isn’t clear at all.
What if Michigan, instead of Ohio State, ends up 13-0 in the above scenario?
That sets up what should be a fairly easy selection process for the committee, with Georgia, Michigan and TCU virtual locks and Ohio State as a heavy favorite to land that last place.
Ohio State: 79% USC: 16% Clemson: 14%
The Buckeyes are the No. 2 ranked team in FPI and also would have a slightly stronger 11-1 SOR than an 11-1 Michigan, meaning Ohio State would also be ahead of USC and Clemson in the résumé metric.
What happens if Michigan or Ohio State lose in the Big Ten championship game?
This is too unlikely for us to do a full-blown scenario, but I think we can get the general idea by just plugging in, for starters, an Ohio State loss in that game — against whoever the opponent may be (Iowa, Purdue and Illinois all still have a chance to win the Big Ten West).
According to the Predictor, the Buckeyes would still have a 94% chance to get into the playoff in this scenario. That would drop a little bit if Clemson, TCU and USC all won out, but it still would be awfully likely Ohio State gets in.
For Michigan, it’s a pretty similar story: A loss in the Big Ten championship game — which the Wolverines can only get to by beating Ohio State first — still gives them an 86% chance at the playoff. Again, that would drop a little bit if everything else went against them elsewhere, but they’d probably still get in.
Is a one-loss TCU finished?
The Predictor says: not necessarily, particularly if the loss is to Iowa State, and then TCU goes on to win the Big 12 championship. At that point, TCU would be a one-loss conference champion with an average strength of record rank of 2.7. That’s the résumé of a playoff team! Independent of results elsewhere, the Predictor says TCU would have a 71% shot at the playoff in this spot, which I think might be a bit of a shock.
This drops to 64% if Clemson and USC also win out. But from the model’s perspective, TCU would have clearly the best résumé of those three teams at that point.
We mentioned there are eight teams with a shot at the playoff at the top and have talked about six of them thus far. The seventh is LSU, which can get in by winning out. The eighth is Alabama. Consider this scenario:
• Georgia wins the SEC
• Ohio State wins out
• Clemson, TCU and USC all lose in conference championship games
In this situation there are three teams virtually certain to get in: Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan. Who else? The Predictor leans TCU over Alabama 46% to 39%, but it’s close! And if we give TCU a loss against Iowa State, too, then Alabama would be the favorite for that fourth spot.
Is the Predictor overrating Alabama’s chances to reach the CFP at 12% right now? Probably by a little bit. But is it impossible the Crimson Tide get in? It is not.
Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite over Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T, per ESPN BET odds.
If that line holds, it would be tied for the second-largest spread in a CFP national championship game and the fourth largest in the CFP/BCS era. Georgia was -13.5 against TCU in the 2022 national championship, while Alabama showed -9.5 against none other than Ohio State to decide the 2020 campaign. Both favorites covered the spread in blowout fashion, combining for a cover margin of 63.
Notre Dame is 12-3 against the spread this season, tied with Arizona State (12-2) and Marshall (12-1) for the most covers in the nation. The Irish are 7-0 ATS against ranked teams and 2-0 ATS as underdogs, with both covers going down as outright victories, including their win over Penn State (-1.5) in the CFP national semifinal.
However, Notre Dame was also on the losing end of the largest outright upset of the college football season when it fell as a 28.5-point favorite to Northern Illinois.
Ohio State is 9-6 against the spread and has been a favorite in every game it has played this season; it has covered the favorite spread in every CFP game thus far, including in its semifinal win against Texas when it covered -6 with overwhelming public support.
The Buckeyes also have been an extremely popular pick in the futures market all season. At BetMGM as of Friday morning, OSU had garnered a leading 28.2% of money and 16.8% of bets to win the national title, checking in as the sportsbook’s greatest liability.
Ohio State opened at +700 to win it all this season and is now -350 with just one game to play.
ARLINGTON, Texas — Quinshon Judkins ran for two touchdowns before Jack Sawyer forced a fumble by his former roommate that he returned 83 yards for a clinching TD as Ohio State beat Texas28-14 in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic on Friday night to advance to a shot for their sixth national title.
Led by Judkins and Sawyer, the Buckeyes (13-2) posted the semifinal victory in the same stadium where 10 years ago they were champions in the debut of the College Football Playoff as a four-team format. Now they have the opportunity to be the winner again in the debut of the expanded 12-team field.
Ohio State plays Orange Bowl champion Notre Dame in Atlanta on Jan. 20. It could be quite a finish for the Buckeyes after they lost to rival Michigan on Nov. 30. Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite over the Irish, per ESPN BET.
“About a month ago, a lot of people counted us out. And these guys went to work, this team, these leaders, the captains, the staff,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said. “Everybody in the building believed. And because of that, I believe we won the game in the fourth quarter.”
Sawyer got to Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers on a fourth-and-goal from the 8, knocking the ball loose and scooping it up before lumbering all the way to the other end. It was the longest fumble return in CFP history.
Ewers and Sawyer were roommates in Columbus, Ohio, for the one semester the quarterback was there before transferring home to Texas and helping lead the Longhorns (13-3) to consecutive CFP semifinals. But next season will be their 20th since winning their last national title with Vince Young in 2005.
Texas had gotten to the 1, helped by two pass-interference penalties in the end zone before Quintrevion Wisner was stopped for a 7-yard loss.
Judkins had a 1-yard touchdown for a 21-14 lead with 7:02 left. That score came four plays after quarterback Will Howard converted fourth-and-2 from the Texas 34 with a stumbling 18-yard run that was almost a score.
Howard was 24-of-33 passing for 289 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
Ewers finished 23-of-39 for 283 yards with two TD passes to Jaydon Blue and an interception after getting the ball back one final time.
Bill McCartney, a three-time coach of the year in the Big Eight Conference who led the Colorado Buffaloes to their only national football title in 1990, has died. He was 84.
McCartney died Friday night “after a courageous journey with dementia,” according to a family statement.
“Coach Mac touched countless lives with his unwavering faith, boundless compassion, and enduring legacy as a leader, mentor and advocate for family, community and faith,” the family said in its statement. “As a trailblazer and visionary, his impact was felt both on and off the field, and his spirit will forever remain in the hearts of those he inspired.”
After playing college ball under Dan Devine at Missouri, McCartney started coaching high school football and basketball in Detroit. He then was hired onto the staff at Michigan, the only assistant ever plucked from the high school ranks by Bo Schembechler.
Schembechler chose wisely. As the Wolverines’ defensive coordinator during the 1980 season, McCartney earned Big Ten “Player” of the Week honors for the defensive scheme he devised to stop star Purdue quarterback Mark Herrmann.
“When I was 7 years old, I knew I was going to be a coach,” McCartney told The Gazette in 2013. “My friends, other kids at that age were going to be president, businessmen, attorneys, firemen. Ever since I was a little kid, I imitated my coaches, critiqued them, always followed and studied them.”
In 1982, McCartney took over a Colorado program that was coming off three straight losing seasons with a combined record of 7-26. After three more struggling seasons, McCartney turned things around to go to bowl games in nine out of 10 seasons starting in 1985, when he switched over to a wishbone offense.
His 1989 team was 11-0 when it headed to the Orange Bowl, where Notre Dame dashed Colorado’s hopes of a perfect season. McCartney and the Buffaloes, however, would get their revenge the following season.
After getting off to an uninspiring 1-1-1 start in 1990, Colorado won its next nine games to earn a No. 1 ranking and a rematch with the Fighting Irish. This time the Buffaloes prevailed, 10-9, and grabbed a share of the national title atop the AP poll (Georgia Tech was tops in the coaches’ poll).
McCartney won numerous coach of the year honors in 1989, and he was also Big Eight Coach of the Year in 1985 and 1990. His teams went a combined 58-11-4 in his last six seasons before retiring (1989-94).
The Buffaloes finished in the AP Top 20 in each of those seasons, including No. 3 in McCartney’s final year, when the team went 11-1 behind a roster that included Kordell Stewart, Michael Westbrook and the late Rashaan Salaam. That season featured the “Miracle in Michigan,” with Westbrook hauling in a 64-yard TD catch from Stewart on a Hail Mary as time expired in a win at Michigan. Salaam also rushed for 2,055 yards to earn the Heisman Trophy.
McCartney also groomed the next wave of coaches, mentoring assistants such as Gary Barnett, Jim Caldwell, Ron Dickerson, Gerry DiNardo, Karl Dorrell, Jon Embree, Les Miles, Rick Neuheisel, Bob Simmons, Lou Tepper, Ron Vanderlinden and John Wristen.
“I was fortunate to be able to say goodbye to Coach in person last week,” Colorado athletic director Rick George, who worked under McCartney and was a longtime friend of his, said in a statement. “Coach Mac was an incredible man who taught me about the importance of faith, family and being a good husband, father and grandfather. He instilled discipline and accountability to all of us who worked and played under his leadership.
“The mark that he left on CU football and our athletic department will be hard to replicate.”
McCartney remains the winningest coach in Colorado history. He retired at age 54 with an overall record of 93-55-5 (.602) in 13 seasons, all with Colorado.
He was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame in 2013. His family announced in 2016 that McCartney had been diagnosed with late-onset dementia and Alzheimer’s.
“Here’s what football does: It teaches a boy to be a man,” McCartney told USA Today in 2017. “You say, ‘How does it do that?’ Well, what if you line up across from a guy who’s bigger, stronger, faster and tougher than you are? What do you do? Do you stay and play? Or do you turn and run? That’s what football does. You’re always going to come up against somebody who’s better than you are.
“That’s what life is. Life is getting knocked down and getting back up and getting back in the game.”
In recent years, McCartney got to watch grandson Derek play defensive line at Colorado. Derek’s father, Shannon Clavelle, was a defensive lineman for Colorado from 1992-94 before playing a few seasons in the NFL. Derek’s brother, T.C. McCartney, was a quarterback at LSU and is the son of late Colorado quarterback Sal Aunese, who played for Bill McCartney in 1987 and ’88 before being diagnosed with stomach cancer in 1989 and dying six months later at 21.
Growing up, Derek McCartney used to go next door to his grandfather’s house to listen to his stories. He never tired of them.
When playing for Colorado, hardly a day would go by when someone wouldn’t ask Derek if he was somehow related to the coach.
“I like when that happens,” Derek said.
ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg and The Associated Press contributed to this report.