Defying forecasts, crude oil prices have wiped out most of this year’s gains and could head lower

Published

3 years ago

November 28, 2022

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Tom Kaye of Plymouth, Pennsylvania tops off his neighbor’s gas tank for them on at a gas station in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, U.S. October 19, 2022.

Aimee Dilger | Reuters

Oil prices are defying expectations and are barely higher on the year, as the outlook for oil demand continues to deteriorate for now.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures for January settled higher Monday at $77.24 per barrel, following a drop to $73.60 per barrel, the lowest price since last December. WTI was up 2.2% for the year, after briefly turning negative earlier Monday.

Gasoline prices at the pump have also been falling dramatically and could be cheaper than last year for many Americans by Christmas, according to an outlook from the Oil Price Information Service. On Monday, the national average was $3.546 per gallon of regular unleaded fuel, down from $3.662 a week ago but still higher than the $3.394 a year ago, according to AAA.

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‘Macro headwinds rather than tailwinds’

China’s lockdowns and the rare protests against Beijing this weekend have raised more doubt about the outlook for the country’s already weakened economy.

“We think the recessionary [forces] around the world, particularly in the three largest economies, are dominating the macro environment for the year as a whole, and we think that the issues we’ve been identifying as relatively bumpy in the period ahead are going to remain,” said Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup. “Right now, we are looking at macro headwinds rather than tailwinds.”

Morse was one of the more bearish strategists on Wall Street in 2022, but he said the latest market developments and the hit to major economies made even his forecast too bullish. He had revised his outlook higher at the end of the third quarter, based on the shift by OPEC+ to focus on prices and the pending ban of Russian crude by Europe.

The oil market has been focused on those two potential catalysts for higher prices, but the impact on demand from the slowdown in China and new lockdowns has outweighed concerns about supply for now. The European Union’s ban on purchases of seaborne Russian oil takes place Dec. 5. The EU is also expected to announce price caps for Russian crude.

OPEC+ is also a factor. The group includes OPEC, plus other producers, including Russia. The group surprised the market in October when it approved a production cut of 2 million barrels a day.

“We’re waiting to see if they signal even deeper cuts. There were rumors in the market about that happening,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. After dipping to the day’s lows, oil rebounded on Monday as speculation circulated about new OPEC+ cuts, he said.

Brent futures, the international benchmark, was lower Monday afternoon at $83.19 per barrel, recovering from $80.61 per barrel, the lowest price since January.

“Right now the target is below $60 [for WTI]. That’s what the chart is indicating… this is a new low for the move because previously the low for the year was late September and now we’ve broken that,” said Kilduff. “It all depends on what happens in China. China is as important on the demand side, as OPEC+ is on the supply side.”

Higher oil prices next year?

Analysts expect oil prices to increase next year. JPMorgan predicts Brent will average $90 per barrel in 2023.

Morgan Stanley expects the return of much higher prices mid-year, after China ends lockdowns.

“Our balances point to modest oversupply in coming months. Hence, we see Brent prices range-bound in the mid-80s to high-90s first,” the firm’s analysts wrote. “However, the market will likely return to balance in 2Q23 and undersupply in 2H23. With limited supply buffer, we expect Brent to return to ~$110/bbl by the middle of next year.”

Kilduff said he does not expect OPEC+ to make a big market impact this year with its cuts, though it is a wild card. Another factor that could drive prices would be if the war in Ukraine were to escalate.

“I’m not that worried about an OPEC+ cut just because the reality of it is most of the countries aren’t going to be cutting. It’s only going to be Saudi Arabia dialing back on the edges,” he said. “Everyone is so far into their quota. It’s a numbers game.”

Morse said market dynamics have changed and oil demand growth will be smaller as a percentage of gross domestic product. “We’re seeing a significant slowdown in global growth,” he said.

Oil demand growth for China turned out to be much less than expected. “We were thinking demand was sluggish. It turned out to be significantly more sluggish… We had thought this year was going to see 3.4 million barrels of demand growth. It actually grew by 1.7 million barrels,” Morse said. He noted that Europe’s demand is down by several hundred thousand barrels, and the U.S. was flat in 2022.

Morse said the demand decline is also part of bigger trend, tied in part to the energy transition toward renewables. “We are also looking for the peak of oil demand in this decade. It’s part of a longer term story,” he said.

The weather’s influence

Kilduff said La Niña’s weather pattern has also affected prices, with warmer weather in North America. He and other analysts say it could continue to impact the market.

“We keep getting cold outlooks, and then it falters. This is La Niña. You will get cold days, but then you get balmy stretches,” Kilduff said. He said concerns about winter heating fuel supplies have abated with a build in supplies in Europe.

The result for consumers could be a windfall at the pump during the holiday season. OPIS expects prices to keep falling into January before turning higher again.

“If you combine the Chinese demonstrations with the warm weather in the northern hemisphere, that’s kind of a double-barreled assault on the energy price at the moment,” said Tom Kloza, global energy analyst at OPIS. He said he expects gasoline to average between $3 and $3.25 per gallon at its low, but it will be below $3 in many parts of the country.

Kloza said by Christmas, the U.S. national average should be slightly below the $3.28 level it was at last year.

Diesel prices have also been falling. According to AAA, diesel averaged $5.215 per gallon nationally Monday, off by about 8 cents per gallon from a week ago.

“We’ve been counter-seasonally building distillate fuel supply so that’s been easing things. If the weather stays relatively benign here, we’re going to lose that upside catalyst and grind lower still,” said Again’s Kilduff.

–Michael Bloom contributed to this story.

Environment

Lease an electric G-Wagon? Mercedes is dangling $9,500 in incentives

Published

5 hours ago

August 15, 2025

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Lease an electric G-Wagon? Mercedes is dangling ,500 in incentives

Mercedes-Electric-G-Class — Mercedes-Benz Electric G-Wagon (Photo: Mercedes-Benz)

If you’ve been eyeing the all-electric G-Wagon, Mercedes-Benz just sweetened the deal – but only for a limited time.

According to a dealer bulletin, the 2025 Mercedes-Benz G 580 with EQ Technology – AKA the electric G-Wagon – now comes with $9,500 in lease cash, up from last month’s $7,500. That’s a 27% jump in savings. The move comes just weeks before the $7,500 EV lease tax credit loophole closes on September 30.

Like most EVs leased in the US, the G-Class has been able to qualify for the credit even though it’s excluded from purchase incentives. That benefit is about to disappear, which likely explains why Mercedes is boosting the offers now.

The electric G-Wagon doesn’t come cheap. With a base price of $162,650, the $9,500 incentive amounts to only a 5.8% discount. The SUV also carries a steep advertised lease: $1,869 per month for 36 months with $14,613 due at signing. Factor it all in, and you’re really paying about $2,275 a month for 10,000 miles a year. Current Mercedes deals run through September 2.

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For context, the 2025 G 580’s lease money factor now sits at 0.00180, which works out to around 4.3% APR – lower than the standard rates previously on offer.

Performance-wise, the electric G-Wagon earns an EPA rating of 62 MPGe and an electric range of 239 miles. Not groundbreaking numbers, but for buyers who want the iconic G-Wagon experience with zero tailpipe emissions, this is it.

With federal lease credits ending soon, Mercedes appears to be betting that drivers looking for a last chance at big EV savings will jump now rather than later.

Click here to find a local dealer that may have the 2025 Mercedes-Benz G 580 with EQ Technology in stock. –trusted affiliate

Thanks to CarsDirect for digging up this dealer offer.

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Environment

Used Honda Prologue EVs are selling faster than expected

Published

7 hours ago

August 15, 2025

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Used Honda Prologue EVs are selling faster than expected

The Honda Prologue is a surprise hit. It was the second-best-selling electric SUV behind the Tesla Model Y in the second half of 2024. Now, used models are in high demand.

Honda Prologue leads used EV sales growth in July

After it delivered the first customer models last March, the Honda Prologue quickly became one of the most popular EVs in the US.

Throughout the second half of the year, Honda sold an average of over 5,000 Prologues every month. In November, it was the third best-selling EV, trailing only the Tesla Model Y and Model 3.

Honda’s electric SUV continues to be a top seller this year. Last month, it outsold the Ford Mustang Mach-E and Hyundai IONIQ 5. Since delivering the first Prologue model last March, Honda has now sold 52,500 units in the US.

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According to Cox Automotive’s latest EV Market Monitor report, used Honda Prologue EVs are selling faster than expected.

Used EV sales rose sharply in July to 36,670, up 23.2% from June and 40% compared to last year. Honda had the biggest increase in used EV sales, more than doubling (+103%) month-over-month. Hyundai (+61.3%) and Rivian (60.5%) ranked second and third.

Tesla led used EV sales last month, selling 15,903 vehicles, up 18% year-over-year. GM’s Chevy (3,499 units, +28.6%), Ford (1,967 units, +25.7%), Mercedes-Benz (1,724 units, -12.3%), and Nissan (1,659 units, +19.9%) rounded out the top five.

Although its market share slipped to 43.4% from 45.2%, Tesla remained the leader by a wide margin. Other luxury brands, including BMW and Audi, reported higher used EV sales in July, with increases of 43.87% and 38%, respectively.

According to the report, used EV listing prices reached $35,263 last month, a 1.9% decrease from June. With a price gap of just $1,266, a record low, used electric vehicle prices are closing in on ICE vehicles.

New EV sales also picked up in July. With over 130,000 EVs sold, up 26% from June, the electric vehicle market share reached 9.1%, the second-highest to date.

Ahead of the $7,500 federal tax credit deadline, set to expire at the end of September, 11 brands posted their best EV sales of the year. The top five included Tesla, Chevy, Hyundai, Ford, and Honda. Volkswagen surged to sixth after electric vehicle sales surged 454% last month.

The Honda Prologue starts at $47,400, but with the credit, you can snag one for under $40,000 right now. Honda is also offering monthly leases as low as $159 in California and other ZEV states. In other regions, it’s still listed for as low as $229 per month.

2025 Honda Prologue trim	Starting Price*	Starting Price After Tax Credit*	EPA Range (miles)
EX (FWD)	$47,400	$39,900	308
EX (AWD)	$50,400	$42,900	294
Touring (FWD)	$51.700	$44,200	308
Touring (AWD)	$54,700	$47,200	294
Elite (AWD)	$57,900	$50,400	283

2025 Honda Prologue prices and range by trim (*Does not include $1,450 D&H fee)

Even Honda’s luxury brand, Acura, is selling more electric vehicles than expected. Through the first half of the year, the Acura ZDX outsold the Cadillac Lyriq, and it’s based on the same GM Ultium platform.

Sales are expected to continue picking up ahead of the deadline. As Cox Automotive highlighted, “July’s performance sets a strong precedent, and as policy support winds down, the market’s ability to respond to real-time demand and brand-level dynamics will be critical in shaping the next phase of growth.”

Ready to take advantage of the savings while they are still here? We’re here to help. You can use our link to find deals on the Honda Prologue in your area (trusted affiliate link).

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Environment

Refuse revolution: Republic deploys Mack LR Electric garbage trucks in Chicago

Published

7 hours ago

August 15, 2025

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Refuse revolution: Republic deploys Mack LR Electric garbage trucks in Chicago

We’re thrilled to support Republic Services in announcing its first 2 electric recycling and waste collection vehicles in Chicago

The waste management experts at Republic Services are committed to cleaning up the Chicagoland area — and now, that includes the air Chicagoans breathe, thanks to the deployment of new Mack LR Electric garbage trucks in the heart of America’s Second City.

Republic Services executives and partners from local utility ComEd gathered yesterday, 14AUG, to celebrate the deployment of Chicago’s first electric refuse fleet, featuring two new Mack LR Electric garbage trucks paid for, in part, by ComEd’s commercial EV rebate program.

“The Mack LR Electric is purpose-built for refuse applications, delivering zero local emissions while maintaining the durability and performance Mack trucks are known for,” reads the official Mack press release. “The electric powertrain provides quieter operation for early morning routes and helps fleet operators meet sustainability goals while supporting cleaner air quality in urban communities. With its low cab-forward design and tight turning radius, the LR Electric maintains the maneuverability essential for residential and commercial waste collection routes.”

The big Class 8 Mack Trucks are powered by a pair of electric motors putting 400 combined kW (about 536 hp) through a 2-speed Mack Powershift transmission that offers a whopping 4,051 lb-ft of peak torque output. That’s over 40% more power than the first generation Mack LR Electric released in 2019, and this iteration can charge the 376 kWh Samsung-sourced batteries fully in under two hours at 150 kW.

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Real money, real results

ComEd and Republic Svcs. executives pose with “big check,” via ComEd.

While Washington continues to threaten America’s economic security and position as a global technology leader by toying with the idea of killing the $7,500 Federal EV tax credit, the ENERGY STAR program, and other energy efficiency incentives, the private energy sector is stepping up with massive investments in battery storage, charging infrastructure, and commercial EV rebates – and Chicago is leading that charge (pun very much intended), with EV adoption outpacing the rest of the nation by 4:1 in Q1.

“ComEd is proud to support Republic Services in advancing zero emissions transportation for Chicago’s neighborhoods,” explains Melissa Washington, our senior vice president of customer operations and strategic initiatives. “As more customers take advantage of our EV rebate programs, we are helping empower customers to realize the air quality and energy savings benefits of EVs, and moving our communities closer to their goals for a more sustainable future.”

The new HD electric vehicles will be powered up nightly by equally new 150 kW DC fast charging stations from BP pulse, which are installed at Republic’s vehicle yard in the Little Village neighborhood. Part of the ComEd rebate money awarded to the company helped fund the make-ready infrastructure portion (effectively from the transformer to the stub) of that project, as well as at least one Ford F-150 Lightning pickup.

And, if these trucks look familiar, it might be because Republic Services also handles refuse collection for the City of Madison, Wisconsin, and added two Class 8 electric trucks to their garbage fleet last year in the form of a pair of similar Mack Electric LR HDEVs.

Electrek’s Take

Look, you know me. There is absolutely ZERO chance that I’ll be able to remain objective about anything that’s putting down more than four thousand lb-ft of torque. Make that thing quieter, cleaner, and generally better for me and my community, and there’s even less of a chance of me saying anything critical about it.

Here’s hoping more cities go electric rather sooner than later.

SOURCES | IMAGES: Mack Trucks, Republic Services, via LinkedIn.

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