S&P Global Mobility released new EV sale data that shows Tesla still owns the US EV market, but it is losing market share.
But when you had close to 100% of the market, there’s only one way to go, and that’s down.
For years now, Tesla has dominated the electric auto market in its home country. It is expected that Tesla’s hold on the market will erode as more EV options hit and help grow the US market, but for now, the US EV market is still extremely dependent on Tesla’s production and deliveries.
Now in 2022, new data released by S&P Global Mobility today shows that Tesla still dominates with 65% of market share this year through the first nine months:
Although U.S. electric vehicle registrations remain dominated by Tesla, the brand is showing the expected signs of shedding market share as more entrants arrive. Much of Tesla’s share loss is to EVs available in a more accessible MSRP range – below $50,000, where Tesla does not yet truly compete.
Out of the more than 525,000 EVs registered over the first nine months of 2022 in the US, nearly 340,000 were Tesla vehicles.
When you look into the luxury EV market (over $50,000), Tesla’s dominance is even clearer with 85% market share.
S&P Global Mobility predicts that the number of EV models available in the US will grow from 48 at present to 159 by 2025.
Tesla is expected to only contribute a single additional vehicle, the Cybertruck, to those 100+ new EV models, but S&P says that it will still only marginally affect Tesla, which is expected to still grow its volume during that time.
Stephanie Brinley, associate director of AutoIntelligence for S&P Global Mobility, commented:
Before you feel too badly for Tesla, however, remember that the brand will continue to see unit sales grow, even as share declines. The EV market in 2022 is a Tesla market, and it will continue to be, so long as its competitors are bound by production capacity.
However, some of those new EV models from other automakers are expected to reach high-volume production within the next three years and start challenging Tesla’s dominance in the US.
In fact, S&P thinks that Tesla’s US EV share will drop to below 20% of the overall market by 2025 which means that either Tesla will have to falter or the rest of the industry will have to go all out in the next three years. Or more likely both.
Electrek’s Take
When you basically own the whole market, there’s only one way, and that’s down. So if I were Tesla, I wouldn’t worry too much.
It’s all about production volume. Whichever automaker is able to produce compelling EVs in large volume is going to dominate, and so far, that’s Tesla. There’s no doubt about it.
It’s important to note that Tesla dominates the EV market in the US right now, but the EV market is itself just about 5% of the US light vehicle market.
By the time there are a few dozen EV programs that have production capacities near a million units, the EV market will take a majority of market shares.
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Wind energy powered 20% of all electricity consumed in Europe (19% in the EU) in 2024, and the EU has set a goal to grow this share to 34% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050.
To stay on track, the EU needs to install 30 GW of new wind farms annually, but it only managed 13 GW in 2024 – 11.4 GW onshore and 1.4 GW offshore. This is what’s holding the EU back from achieving its wind growth goals.
Three big problems holding Europe’s wind power back
Europe’s wind power growth is stalling for three key reasons:
Permitting delays. Many governments haven’t implemented the EU’s new permitting rules, making it harder for projects to move forward.
Grid connection bottlenecks. Over 500 GW(!) of potential wind capacity is stuck in grid connection queues.
Slow electrification. Europe’s economy isn’t electrifying fast enough to drive demand for more renewable energy.
Brussels-based trade association WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson summed it up: “The EU must urgently tackle all three problems. More wind means cheaper power, which means increased competitiveness.”
Permitting: Germany sets the standard
Permitting remains a massive roadblock, despite new EU rules aimed at streamlining the process. In fact, the situation worsened in 2024 in many countries. The bright spot? Germany. By embracing the EU’s permitting rules — with measures like binding deadlines and treating wind energy as a public interest priority — Germany approved a record 15 GW of new onshore wind in 2024. That’s seven times more than five years ago.
If other governments follow Germany’s lead, Europe could unlock the full potential of wind energy and bolster energy security.
Grid connections: a growing crisis
Access to the electricity grid is now the biggest obstacle to deploying wind energy. And it’s not just about long queues — Europe’s grid infrastructure isn’t expanding fast enough to keep up with demand. A glaring example is Germany’s 900-megawatt (MW) Borkum Riffgrund 3 offshore wind farm. The turbines are ready to go, but the grid connection won’t be in place until 2026.
This issue isn’t isolated. Governments need to accelerate grid expansion if they’re serious about meeting renewable energy targets.
Electrification: falling behind
Wind energy’s growth is also tied to how quickly Europe electrifies its economy. Right now, electricity accounts for just 23% of the EU’s total energy consumption. That needs to jump to 61% by 2050 to align with climate goals. However, electrification efforts in key sectors like transportation, heating, and industry are moving too slowly.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has tasked Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen with crafting an Electrification Action Plan. That can’t come soon enough.
More wind farms awarded, but challenges persist
On a positive note, governments across Europe awarded a record 37 GW of new wind capacity (29 GW in the EU) in 2024. But without faster permitting, better grid connections, and increased electrification, these awards won’t translate into the clean energy-producing wind farms Europe desperately needs.
Investments and corporate interest
Investments in wind energy totaled €31 billion in 2024, financing 19 GW of new capacity. While onshore wind investments remained strong at €24 billion, offshore wind funding saw a dip. Final investment decisions for offshore projects remain challenging due to slow permitting and grid delays.
Corporate consumers continue to show strong interest in wind energy. Half of all electricity contracted under Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) in 2024 was wind. Dedicated wind PPAs were 4 GW out of a total of 12 GW of renewable PPAs.
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In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss the official unveiling of the new Tesla Model Y, Mazda 6e, Aptera solar car production-intent, and more.
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The Chinese EV leader is launching a new flagship electric sedan. BYD’s new Han L EV leaked in China on Friday, revealing a potential Tesla Model S Plaid challenger.
What we know about the BYD Han L EV so far
We knew it was coming soon after BYD teased the Han L on social media a few days ago. Now, we are learning more about what to expect.
BYD’s new electric sedan appeared in China’s latest Ministry of Industry and Information Tech (MIIT) filing, a catalog of new vehicles that will soon be sold.
The filing revealed four versions, including two EV and two PHEV models. The Han L EV will be available in single- and dual-motor configurations. With a peak power of 580 kW (777 hp), the single-motor model packs more power than expected.
BYD’s dual-motor Han L gains an additional 230 kW (308 hp) front-mounted motor. As CnEVPost pointed out, the vehicle’s back has a “2.7S” badge, which suggests a 0 to 100 km/h (0 to 62 mph) sprint time of just 2.7 seconds.
To put that into perspective, the Tesla Model S Plaid can accelerate from 0 to 100 km in 2.1 seconds. In China, the Model S Plaid starts at RBM 814,900, or over $110,000. Speaking of Tesla, the EV leader just unveiled its highly anticipated Model Y “Juniper” refresh in China on Thursday. It starts at RMB 263,500 ($36,000).
BYD already sells the Han EV in China, starting at around RMB 200,000. However, the single front motor, with a peak power of 180 kW, is much less potent than the “L” model. The Han EV can accelerate from 0 to 100 km/h in 7.9 seconds.
At 5,050 mm long, 1,960 mm wide, and 1,505 mm tall with a wheelbase of 2,970 mm, BYD’s new Han L is roughly the size of the Model Y (4,970 mm long, 1,964 mm wide, 1,445 mm tall, wheelbase of 2,960 mm).
Other than that it will use a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) pack from BYD’s FinDreams unit, no other battery specs were revealed. Check back soon for the full rundown.