S&P Global Mobility released new EV sale data that shows Tesla still owns the US EV market, but it is losing market share.
But when you had close to 100% of the market, there’s only one way to go, and that’s down.
For years now, Tesla has dominated the electric auto market in its home country. It is expected that Tesla’s hold on the market will erode as more EV options hit and help grow the US market, but for now, the US EV market is still extremely dependent on Tesla’s production and deliveries.
Now in 2022, new data released by S&P Global Mobility today shows that Tesla still dominates with 65% of market share this year through the first nine months:
Although U.S. electric vehicle registrations remain dominated by Tesla, the brand is showing the expected signs of shedding market share as more entrants arrive. Much of Tesla’s share loss is to EVs available in a more accessible MSRP range – below $50,000, where Tesla does not yet truly compete.
Out of the more than 525,000 EVs registered over the first nine months of 2022 in the US, nearly 340,000 were Tesla vehicles.
When you look into the luxury EV market (over $50,000), Tesla’s dominance is even clearer with 85% market share.
S&P Global Mobility predicts that the number of EV models available in the US will grow from 48 at present to 159 by 2025.
Tesla is expected to only contribute a single additional vehicle, the Cybertruck, to those 100+ new EV models, but S&P says that it will still only marginally affect Tesla, which is expected to still grow its volume during that time.
Stephanie Brinley, associate director of AutoIntelligence for S&P Global Mobility, commented:
Before you feel too badly for Tesla, however, remember that the brand will continue to see unit sales grow, even as share declines. The EV market in 2022 is a Tesla market, and it will continue to be, so long as its competitors are bound by production capacity.
However, some of those new EV models from other automakers are expected to reach high-volume production within the next three years and start challenging Tesla’s dominance in the US.
In fact, S&P thinks that Tesla’s US EV share will drop to below 20% of the overall market by 2025 which means that either Tesla will have to falter or the rest of the industry will have to go all out in the next three years. Or more likely both.
Electrek’s Take
When you basically own the whole market, there’s only one way, and that’s down. So if I were Tesla, I wouldn’t worry too much.
It’s all about production volume. Whichever automaker is able to produce compelling EVs in large volume is going to dominate, and so far, that’s Tesla. There’s no doubt about it.
It’s important to note that Tesla dominates the EV market in the US right now, but the EV market is itself just about 5% of the US light vehicle market.
By the time there are a few dozen EV programs that have production capacities near a million units, the EV market will take a majority of market shares.
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It’s finally happening. After years of promises, missed timelines dating back to the “Autonomy Day” in 2019, and endless iterations of “Full Self-Driving” (FSD), a Tesla vehicle has been spotted driving on public roads in Austin without anyone in the driver’s seat or a safety monitor in the passenger seat.
Elon Musk has confirmed that Robotaxi testing has officially commenced. This is undeniably a step forward for the company’s autonomy ambitions.
But it is also a terrifying leap of faith, given the complete lack of safety data proving the system is ready for this.
The sighting, captured over the weekend by locals in Austin, shows what appears to be a specially outfitted Model Y, presumably a testbed for the upcoming dedicated Robotaxi platform, navigating city streets. The steering wheel is turning, the car is moving, and the driver’s seat and front passenger seat are empty:
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Following the online buzz surrounding the sighting, Elon Musk took to X to confirm the obvious:
“Testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
In isolation, this is exciting news. It suggests Tesla has reached an internal confidence level in their latest FSD builds for Robotaxi (not in consumer vehicles) where they feel comfortable pulling the human monitor.
It’s the tangible progress toward the driverless future many Tesla owners bought into years ago.
However, there’s still a lot of room for concerns.
Tesla has, to date, never released comprehensive, verifiable data proving that its FSD system is safer than a human driver. We get anecdotal evidence, curated video clips, and high-level statistics about “miles driven,” but not the granular disengagement data that competitors like Waymo provide to regulators and the public.
In fact, the data we do have, based on incident reports submitted to the NHTSA under their Standing General Order regarding ADS and ADAS systems, paints a worrying picture.
The data pointed to Tesla’s Robotaxi pilot in Austin having a crash every ~62,000 miles, significantly higher than the human average, despite a safety monitor inside the car that should have prevented further crashes.
Think about that for a second. The current fleet requires human intervention to avoid crashes. We know this. If human interventions are currently preventing accidents, common sense dictates that removing the human without a massive, documented improvement in the system’s base capability will lead to more incidents.
Tesla seems to be skipping the “prove it’s safe” phase and jumping straight to the “deploy it” phase.
I want Tesla to succeed here. A functional, scalable Robotaxi network would be a civilization-level improvement in transport. Seeing a driverless Tesla on public roads might feel like a visceral milestone, proof that the technology is advancing.
But “advancing” is not the same as “safe.”
I have serious concerns about the fact that Tesla has consistently avoided releasing verifiable, valuable data on the safety of FSD or its Robotaxi pilot program.
We have to try ourselves to match Tesla’s sparse release of Robotaxi mileage to the limited crash data reported to NHTSA. And that doesn’t look very good for Tesla.
So far, and even with this sighting, the Robotaxi program in Austin seems more of a marketing effort than the true first step toward scaling a driverless ride-hailing service. It looks like an effort to manufacture a win while Waymo rapidly scales its commercial driverless system.
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The Cat 793 XE Early Learner battery-electric haul trucks deliver all the performance of its diesel-powered siblings without the noise, vibrations, and harmful emissions – and now, they’re being put to the test at BHP’s iron ore mine in Australia.
Part of a collaborative effort between BHP and Rio Tinto to help decarbonize BHP’s Jimblebar iron ore mine in the Pilbara, these 240-ton Cat 793 XE Early Learner electric haul trucks represent a major step toward a more sustainable future in mining, designed to deliver zero exhaust emissions while maintaining productivity and performance.
“Powering up our first battery-electric haul trucks in the Pilbara is an important step forward on the mining industry’s road to decarbonization,” says BHP Western Australia Iron Ore Asset president, Tim Day. “Replacing diesel isn’t just about changing energy sources, it’s about reimagining how we operate and creating the technologies, infrastructure, and supply chains to transform mining operations. These trials will help us understand how all the pieces of the puzzle fit together: the battery technologies, generation and charging infrastructure, power management, as well as the supply chains to potentially deliver this at scale.”
Decarbonisation of Pilbara iron ore operations will rely on technology advancements and breakthroughs in research and development, which is why BHP and Rio Tinto are working closely with Caterpillar to accelerate their fleets’ transition to electric power.
Despite the urgency, however, they need to get it right or risk huge disruptions that will eat up any projected efficiency gains. “A significant shift like this demands a strong commitment to research and development, coupled with collaboration across the industry,” adds Day. “This is going to take time to get right, which is why trials like this one with Rio Tinto and Caterpillar are so critical.”
Caterpillar 793 XE Early Learner
793 XE Early Learner; via Caterpillar.
The big Caterpillar haul truck is powered by a 564 kWh lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery pack that sends electrons to a 480 kW (645 hp) electric motor that kicks out an undisclosed amount of torque – but which is more than capable of hauling 250 tons of truck and payload at the same 38 mph to speed as its 2,650 hp diesel-powered bretheren.
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A few weeks ago, we talked about some real-world numbers shared by Redditors who added a rooftop solar system to their homes. Not to be outdone, Electrek readers took to the comments to share their own real-world solar numbers. Here are some of the best!
That original post, which you can read here, was inspired by a Reddit user going by DontBuyBitcoin who shared a screenshot on r/Solar indicating that their newly-installed ~11.5 kW system produced over 1,700 kWh of electricity in October. “Pretty surprised by the production of the system I got,” writes DontBuyBitcoin. “11.48KW. I cant wait to see what JUNE-AUGUST [2026] going to look like 😍 I wish SolarEdge will make their app better looking with more functionality.”
Other Redditors were quick to share in the enthusiasm, but our Electrek readers weren’t going to be outdone, and shared their own results in the comments section.
I’ve got a 49 panel, 16.5 kW system just outside Austin, TX, and while it’s expensive ($320/mo), I produce much more power than I use each month. But with 2 EVs, a hot tub, and air conditioning in a Texas summer, I’m not mad I have all this. On a current sunny day, I’m producing about 65 kWh. I top out around 107 kWh on a long but somehow not hot day.l in late spring or early fall (whatever that means in Texas).
Another reader, Craig Morrow, had a much smaller system at “just” 6.5 kW compared to David’s 16.5 kW deal, but still put up some highly respectable numbers.
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My 6.5 kw PV generates from 16 kwh/day (winter) to 38 kwh/day (late spring). Between the efficiency of my house and my consumption habits, my usage averages 5-6 kwh per day. Went all-in on passive and active solar when I built the house ten years ago, an investment which has long since paid for itself with no heating or utility bills, plus having battery storage means no worries about power outages when the grid goes down. A great feeling to be energy independent!
Craig had the top comment with twenty upvotes, but he wasn’t the only reader to see some big efficiency gains with home solar. Several of you posted about the cost of your system, and when you’d begin to see an ROI with the savings you were seeing.
My ROI on a $42k system ($30k with the IRA tax credit) was calculated to be 15 years assuming a 4% yearly rate increase. Without the tax credit it would likely be 20+ years. It makes no sense financially. Interestingly, Europeans pay a lot less for similar size systems. Why is that?
Another commenter, Leonard Bates, was also seeing great returns – but took things a step further by doing some extra math to compare the cost of fueling up his car with gas vs. topping it off with electrons generated by his home solar system.
It is hard for the average Joe to understand electricity production numbers, so I have reduced our experience into dollars. We have a 8.8 kWh rooftop system and two EVs that (other than a few vacation trips a year) are charged at home. We are retired, so we can charge during the day. Bottom line, we saved over $4,000 by not buying gasoline last year (drove ~41,000 miles). Electric bills, with the load of the EVs, is basically a breakeven. The system cost us about $22,000, so a breakeven on the system of about six years and then free electricity for another 20, until the panels need to be replace. Plus we are “energy independent” for our cars. If there is turmoil in the Middle East, it doesn’t affect our pocket books.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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