Rivian (RIVN) CEO discusses the road to profitability, supply chains, R2 platform, and more
RJ Scaringe, CEO of Rivian (RIVN), sat down with Charlie Coldicott, head of global automotive research at Redburn, to discuss demand, supply chain constraints, the R2 platform, profitability, and more.
Rivian exploded on the scene as one of the most intriguing electric vehicle (EV) makers after going public on the NASDAQ exchange a little over a year ago (November 9, 2021).
Investors rushed in to get their share of the future of the auto industry, pushing Rivian’s market cap well over $100 billion, surpassing both Ford (F) and General Motors (GM). Since then, Rivian has fallen back to reality (as with most unprofitable, growth companies) with a current market cap of around $26 billion.
To make matters worse, RIVN stock is down 72% this year. How has Rivian lost almost a fourth of its value?
To be fair, it’s not all Rivian’s fault. Some of it has to do with events outside the company’s control. Rising interest rates, geopolitical tension, and supply chain bottlenecks have slowed Rivian’s momentum while presenting hurdles for the company’s future.
In spite of this, Rivian is plowing ahead, confident it has what it takes to not only succeed but thrive in the evolving auto industry. In the third quarter, Rivian said it has produced over 15,000 EVs since the start of production while reaffirming its 25,000 goal for 2022.
Although the company is confident, investors are more hesitant, wondering if and when Rivian will turn a profit.
Rivian’s CEO RJ Scaringe sat down at the company’s Redburn’s CEO Conference to discuss the road to profitability, overcoming supply chain hurdles, the upcoming R2 platform, and more.
Demand for Rivian vehicles
Despite concerns over a slowing auto industry, Scaringe says he is confident the company can sell everything it makes with a strong order backlog that stretches into 2024.
Even recently, Scaringe notes, the company is seeing a strong order intake for Rivian vehicles. The company is trying to manage its backlog because too much can deter new buyers. One way of influencing orders is with price changes, which the company did in March.
Scaringe says there’s still room to stretch prices with different options, such as dual or quad motors. He adds Rivian’s unique capabilities continue driving demand.
Establishing its supply chain for the future
As the US and world venture toward 100% EV adoption, Scaringe says the least talked about hurdle is battery materials.
With nearly every automaker transitioning to an all-electric portfolio, demand for critical battery materials is skyrocketing, pushing prices higher. For example, lithium and nickel, two essential minerals for electric vehicles, are up significantly this year.
Establishing a consistent supply, Scaringe says, can take time with multiyear projects that need to come online. For this reason, it’s crucial to lock in capacity now for future production.
To that end, Scaringe says Rivian is building a “portfolio of relationships” for different setups. He adds that the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act supports domestic investments, which will help drive EV growth and ease the transition.
Rivian Profitability
In the most recent quarter, Rivian’s losses widened to $1.7 billion as the EV maker scales production. The company noted in its Q3 shareholder letter:
As we produce vehicles at low volumes on production lines designed for higher volumes, we have and will continue to experience negative gross profit related to labor, depreciation, and overhead costs.
Scaringe says it has been a “challenging year” with Rivian launching four products (two versions of the EV van, the R1T, and the R1S). Launching one vehicle is tough, but launching four is complex.
The company has experienced “unforeseen challenges” as a result, setting production back. To overcome this, Rivian’s CEO says it has first worked to establish the supply chains necessary. And now, it’s focusing on ramping production consistently.
As Rivian mentioned above, it has identified a few of these challenges (capital efficiency) and is now working to address them. For example, the company has added a second production shift to accelerate production.
Although the company is working hard to address these factors, Rivian is not out of the woods yet. The challenges are “well understood,” as Scaringe puts it, but they will still face hurdles while scaling.
Rivian has noted it has sufficient capital until at least 2025. This year, the EV start-up has focused primarily on scaling production. In 2023, Scaringe says, Rivian will work to reduce costs and drive volume, which will steer them toward positive gross margins.
The company is looking at all ways to maximize efficiency and cut costs wherever needed. For example, Rivian reduced its head count earlier this year and has streamlined many processes for its R1 models.
R2 Platform
Rivian plans to launch its next-generation EV architecture, the R2 platform, in 2026. But the company is already getting excited about the opportunity it will bring Rivian and EV buyers.
Scaringe says the R2 platform showcases the best of Rivian’s qualities, such as:
- Capability
- Aerodynamics
- Refinements
- Functionality
Although Rivian is targeting a lower price point, it will “still be very much a Rivian” as the company plans for significant demand. The company plans to implement the same “simplicity” it has learned to use with the R1 series.
The R2 platform is designed to be a much higher volume architecture and will launch in multiple global markets, according to Scaringe.
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Ford is jumping into the battery energy storage business, betting that booming demand from data centers and the electric grid can absorb the EV battery capacity it says it’s not using.
To achieve this, Ford plans to repurpose its existing EV battery manufacturing capacity in Glendale, Kentucky, into a dedicated hub for manufacturing battery energy storage systems.
Ford pivots from EVs to battery storage for data centers
Ford says it will invest about $2 billion over the next two years to scale the new business. The Kentucky site will be converted to build advanced battery energy storage systems larger than 5 megawatt-hours, including LFP prismatic cells, BESS modules, and 20-foot DC container systems — the kind of hardware increasingly used by data centers, utilities, and large-scale industrial companies.
The company plans to bring initial production online within 18 months, leaning on its manufacturing experience and licensed battery technology. By late 2027, Ford expects the business to deploy at least 20 gigawatt-hours of energy storage annually.
The move follows a joint venture disposition agreement reached last week between Ford, SK On, SK Battery America, and BlueOval SK. Under the agreement, a Ford subsidiary will independently own and operate the Kentucky battery plants, while SK On will fully own and operate the Tennessee battery plant.
Ford is also planning a separate energy storage play in Michigan. At BlueOval Battery Park Michigan in Marshall, the company will produce smaller amp-hour LFP prismatic cells for residential energy storage systems. That plant is on track to begin manufacturing in 2026, and it will also supply batteries for Ford’s upcoming midsize electric truck — the first model built on the company’s new Universal EV Platform.
Electrek’s Take
Overall, the shift reflects Ford’s broader push toward what it calls “higher-return opportunities.” Alongside taking a step backward to add more gas-powered trucks and vans to its US manufacturing footprint, Ford says it will no longer produce some larger EVs, such as the Lightning F-150, where softer demand and higher costs are resulting from the lack of support for EVs by the Trump administration. (Batteries produced at the Glendale plant were for the all-electric Ford F-150 Lightning. The best-selling electric truck in the US in Q3, before the federal tax credit expired, was the Ford F-150 Lightning, with 10,005 EVs sold, a 39.7% year-over-year increase.)
With tax credits eliminated and regulatory uncertainty, Ford is pivoting to adjacent markets, including grid-scale and residential energy storage, to keep its battery plants running and justify billions in sunk investment.
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Stellantis may have backed away from planned EVs like the all-electric Ram REV and range-topping Dodge Charger Daytona R/T EV, but the company isn’t standing still. A newly awarded patent outlines an innovative, foam-based thermal runaway suppression system that’s built into an EV’s battery pack.
The indisputable fact of the matter is that electric vehicles catch fire far less often — and far less frequently — than their combustion-powered brethren. Still, a number of highly-publicized early Tesla fires and poorly managed recall on the first-gen Chevy Bolt have linked “electric car” and “fire” in the minds of many Americans, and the ones who have been waiting to test the EV waters until a better safety solution came along are going to absolutely love this latest setup from Chrysler parent company Stellantis.
MoparInsiders is reporting on a new Stellantis patent awarded on a proactive battery safety system that’s designed to stop thermal runaway (read: fire) before it can cascade through an entire EV battery pack.
Rather than relying solely on passive barriers or post-event containment, Stellantis’ freshly patented system uses strategically placed foam channels and deployment mechanisms that can flood the affected cells with high insulation foam when abnormal heat is detected in a cell, isolating the problem area and dramatically slowing (if not outright stopping) the chain reaction that leads to catastrophic battery failure.
The patent describes an electric car battery that, on the outside, will look familiar to EV enthusiasts, but there are some key differences “layered in” around the familiar bits. These include:
- A bladder filled with a fire-retardant chemical; located close to the battery cells, typically between the cells and the top of the pack. It’s made from a flexible polymer, so it can be punctured when needed
- Two sets of blades; the first aimed at the bladder, ready to pierce it and release the fire-retardant chemical while the second targets specific points on the coolant inlet line, outlet line, or heat sinks to rupture them and release cooling foam directly where it’s needed
- Special coolant line sections; designed with small sealed apertures that closed off with a soft plug material that’s easy for the blades to pierce but strong enough to maintain pressure during normal operation
- Actuation devices tied to a controller; that push the blades into the bladder and coolant components when a thermal event is detected
Special coolant lines
The system relies on a suite of existing temperature sensors throughout the battery pack, and seems like a viable enough solution to a problem that, while rare, certainly exists — and which looms large over America’s Early Majority tech adopters.
As for me, I think Stellantis should focus on bringing more compelling products to market and stop looking for ways to blame the customer, market, and government for its inability to sell Jeep products that, apparently, have enough markup to cover nearly $30,000 in discounts to help dealers move their metal. I look forward to hearing about your take in the comments.
SOURCE | IMAGES: US Patent Office, via MoparInsiders.
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It’s official. The all-electric pickup is dead, but Ford is promising the F-150 Lightning EREV will be “every bit as revolutionary” as it shakes up EV plans once again.
Ford reveals next-gen F-150 Lightning EREV
Ford confirmed production of the current F-150 Lightning has ended as part of its updated Ford+ plan, which the company revealed on Monday.
The changes come as part of a broader shift from larger EVs, like the Lightning, to smaller, more affordable models.
While Ford still plans to launch lower-cost EVs based on its Universal EV Platform, the company is expanding its hybrid and extended range electric vehicle (EREV) lineup. By 2030, Ford expects 50% of its global volume to be hybrids, EREVs, and EVs, up from 17% in 2025.
As part of its new plans, Ford said the next-generation F-150 Lightning will switch to an EREV powertrain. It will be assembled at the Rouge EV Center in Dearborn, Michigan, replacing the current all-electric pickup.
With production of the current-generation Lightning now concluded, Ford is sending workers from the Rouge EV Center to its Dearborn Truck Plant as it doubles down on gas and hybrids.
During its Q3 earnings call last month, Ford said the electric pickup would remain paused following a fire at Novelis’ plant in New York that disrupted aluminum supply.
The F-150 Lightning is a “groundbreaking” vehicle, according to Doug Field, Ford’s chief EV, digital, and design officer, that showed an electric pickup can be a great F-Series.
Field claims the “next-generation Lightning EREV is every bit as revolutionary.” It will still offer 100% electric power delivery, sub-5-second acceleration, an estimated combined range of 700+ miles, and it “tows like a locomotive.”
Ford also plans to replace its electric commercial van for North America with affordable gas- and hybrid-powered versions. It will be assembled at Ford’s Ohio Assembly Plant.
The move comes as part of Ford’s plans to launch five new affordable vehicles by the end of the decade, four of which will be assembled in the US. Ford also plans to offer gas, hybrid, and EREV options across nearly every vehicle in its lineup by then.
The first vehicle based on Ford’s new Universal EV Platform will be a midsize electric pickup, starting at around $30,000. It’s expected to be about the size of the Ranger or Maverick.
The news comes after SK On announced last week that it planned to end its joint venture with Ford to build EV batteries at three US gigafactories.
Ford is now planning to use the wholly owned EV battery plants in Kentucky and Michigan to launch a new battery energy storage business. The company plans to begin shipping BESS systems in 2027, with an annual capacity of 20 GWh.
“The operating reality has changed, and we are redeploying capital into higher-return growth opportunities: Ford Pro, our market-leading trucks and vans, hybrids, and high-margin opportunities like our new battery energy storage business,” CEO Jim Farley said on Monday.
The changes are designed to improve profitability and returns. Ford’s EV business, Model e, is now expected to reach profitability by 2029 with improvements in 2026.
Model e lost another $1.4 billion in Q3, bringing the total to $3.6 billion through September. Around $3 billion was due to its current EVs, while the other $600 million was spent on its next-gen models.
Although sales of the F-150 Lightning dropped 60.8% last month following the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, Ford’s electric pickup remained the best-selling pickup in the US through September.
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