Utah wins Pac-12 title, ends USC’s playoff hopes
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Paolo UggettiESPN
LAS VEGAS, NV — The only blemish in USC‘s 11-win regular season had been a one-point loss to Utah in October. Thanks to the Pac-12’s decision to turn its championship game into a matchup between its two best teams instead of division winners, the Trojans had an opportunity to make that loss moot and make their first-ever College Football Playoff appearance in Lincoln Riley’s first season as head coach.
But one blemish turned into two on Friday night in Vegas, as No. 11 Utah played spoiler and proved it has USC’s number this season.
The Utes scored 24 unanswered points and went on to beat No. 4 USC 47-24 to win their second-straight Pac-12 title and likely keep the Trojans out of the fourth playoff spot.
In what felt like a near-repeat of the matchup between the two teams earlier this season, the Utes’ slow start did not hold them back. USC dominated the first quarter and raced to a 17-3 lead early thanks to a few more Heisman-worthy plays by Caleb Williams, who finished the game with 296 passing yards, 65 rushing yards, three touchdowns and one interception.
But it all unraveled in a hurry for USC. After pulling off a miraculous 59-yard run that had him gasping for air and walking gingerly, Williams never quite looked the same.
Afterward, Trojans coach Lincoln Riley said that Williams “popped” his hamstring on that long first quarter run.
“I asked him at one point, I was like, are you 50 percent?” Riley said. “And I mean, he was not even close to 50 percent. I definitely thought about taking him out … he wouldn’t have let me. He wouldn’t even let me take him out at the end.”
Riley called the performance one of the gutsiest he’s witnessed. Williams, meanwhile, described the feeling of his injury as that of an old rubber band.
“The rest of the game I felt it,” Williams said. “But a person that I admire is Kobe and he always said the game is bigger than what you’re feeling.”
Utah, meanwhile, settled in during the second quarter and quarterback Cam Rising put together two touchdown drives at the end of the half to tie the game at 17.
In the second half, it became clear Williams was hurt. The 20-year-old quarterback favored his left side and was visibly limping. Though Williams stayed in the game, he was no longer the player that spearheaded one of the most explosive offenses in the nation.
During the second half, Williams showed some hesitation, too. And when the USC defense was on the field, Williams rode the stationary bike on the sidelines. Backup quarterback Miller Moss grabbed his helmet and warmed up, but Williams remained under center.
Having been unable to establish the run early, a hobbled Williams looked frozen in the pocket, and it all but sapped USC’s scoring prowess. Williams was uncharacteristically sacked four times and his throws lacked the pinpoint accuracy and strength they have had all season.
The Utes took advantage. They not only pressured Williams plenty, but on offense they went back to their most reliable option against the USC defense: tight ends. Dalton Kincaid and Thomas Yassmin combined for 121 yards, including a 60-yard Rising to Yassmin touchdown pass that pushed the lead back to 10 after USC cut it to three in the fourth quarter.
Rising finished with 310 yards in the air to six different receivers and three touchdowns. The senior out of California was selected the game’s most valuable player postgame. Thanks to Rising, the Utes once again did what no other team could all season: outscore and outgain the Trojans. Utah finished with 533 total yards of offense to USC’s 411.
By the time running back Ja’Quinden Jackson broke off a 53-yard touchdown run to put the Utes up 16, the result was all but set in stone. The Utes were going back to the Rose Bowl and USC was left with not just two losses to the same team, but a hurt quarterback and no title to show for their turnaround season too.
The first 12-team College Football Playoff is down to the final two contenders: Notre Dame and Ohio State.
The seventh-seeded Fighting Irish and eighth-seeded Buckeyes will meet Jan. 20 at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T. Whichever team wins will end a championship drought. Notre Dame aims for its first title since 1988. Ohio State’s lull isn’t nearly as long, as the Buckeyes won the first CFP championship a decade ago, but given how consistently elite they are, it seems like a while.
Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman and Ohio State’s Ryan Day are also aiming for their first championships as head coaches, and Freeman’s past will be in the spotlight. Freeman and the Irish lost to the Buckeyes and Day in each of the past two seasons. But after a masterful coaching job this season, Freeman now will face his alma mater — he was an All-Big Ten linebacker for Ohio State under coach Jim Tressel — with everything on the line. Day, meanwhile, can secure the loftiest goal for a team that fell short of earlier ones, but never stopped swinging.
Here’s your first look at the championship matchup and what to expect in the ATL. — Adam Rittenberg
When: Jan. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in the semifinal: Notre Dame’s resilience and situational awareness/execution are undeniably its signature traits and could propel the team to a title. The Irish have overcome injuries all season and did so again against Penn State. They also erased two deficits and continued to hold the edge in the “middle eight” — the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half — while dominating third down on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame can rely on front men such as quarterback Riley Leonard, running back Jeremiyah Love and linebacker Jack Kiser, but also on backup QB Steve Angeli, wide receiver Jaden Greathouse and kicker Mitch Jeter. These Irish fight, and they’re very hard to knock out.
X factor: Greathouse entered Thursday with moderate numbers — 29 receptions, 359 yards, one touchdown — and had only three total catches for 14 yards in the first two CFP games. But he recorded career highs in both receptions (7) and receiving yards (105) and tied the score on a 54-yard touchdown with 4:38 to play. A Notre Dame offense looking for more from its wide receivers, especially downfield, could lean more on Greathouse, who exceeded his receptions total from the previous five games but might be finding his groove at the perfect time. He also came up huge in the clutch, recording all but six of his receiving yards in the second half.
How Notre Dame wins: The Irish won’t have the talent edge in Atlanta, partly because they’ve lost several stars to season-ending injuries, but they have the right traits to hang with any opponent. Notre Dame needs contributions in all three phases and must continue to sprinkle in downfield passes, an element offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has pushed. And they finally did start seeing results against Penn State. The Irish likely can’t afford to lose the turnover margin, although they can help themselves by replicating their third-down brilliance — 11 of 17 conversions on offense, 3 of 11 conversions allowed on defense — from the Penn State win. — Rittenberg
What we learned in the semifinal: The Buckeyes have a defense with championship mettle, headlined by senior defensive end Jack Sawyer, who delivered one of the biggest defensive plays in Ohio State history. On fourth-and-goal with just over two minutes remaining, Sawyer sacked Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, forcing a fumble that he scooped up and raced 83 yards for a game-clinching touchdown, propelling Ohio State to the national title game. The Buckeyes weren’t perfect in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, and they struggled offensively for much of the night against a talented Texas defense. But Ohio State showed late why its defense is arguably the best in college football, too.
X factor: The play two snaps before the Sawyer scoop-and-score set the table. On second-and-goal from the Ohio State 1-yard line, unheralded senior safety Lathan Ransom dashed past incoming blockers and dropped Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner for a 7-yard loss. After an incomplete pass, the Longhorns were forced into desperation mode on fourth-and-goal down a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining. All-American safety Caleb Downs, who had an interception on Texas’ ensuing drive, rightfully gets all the headlines for the Ohio State secondary. But the Buckeyes have other veteran standouts such as Ransom throughout their defense.
How Ohio State wins: Texas took away Ohio State’s top offensive playmaker, true freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who had only one reception for 3 yards on three targets. As the first two playoff games underscored, the Buckeyes offense is at its best when Smith gets the ball early and often. Notre Dame is sure to emulate the Texas blueprint, positioning the defensive backs to challenge Smith. Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has to counter with a plan that finds ways to get the ball into Smith’s hands, no matter what the Fighting Irish do. — Jake Trotter
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Doug Greenberg, ESPN
Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite over Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T, per ESPN BET odds.
If that line holds, it would be tied for the second-largest spread in a CFP national championship game and the fourth largest in the CFP/BCS era. Georgia was -13.5 against TCU in the 2022 national championship, while Alabama showed -9.5 against none other than Ohio State to decide the 2020 campaign. Both favorites covered the spread in blowout fashion, combining for a cover margin of 63.
Notre Dame is 12-3 against the spread this season, tied with Arizona State (12-2) and Marshall (12-1) for the most covers in the nation. The Irish are 7-0 ATS against ranked teams and 2-0 ATS as underdogs, with both covers going down as outright victories, including their win over Penn State (-1.5) in the CFP national semifinal.
However, Notre Dame was also on the losing end of the largest outright upset of the college football season when it fell as a 28.5-point favorite to Northern Illinois.
Ohio State is 9-6 against the spread and has been a favorite in every game it has played this season; it has covered the favorite spread in every CFP game thus far, including in its semifinal win against Texas when it covered -6 with overwhelming public support.
The Buckeyes also have been an extremely popular pick in the futures market all season. At BetMGM as of Friday morning, OSU had garnered a leading 28.2% of money and 16.8% of bets to win the national title, checking in as the sportsbook’s greatest liability.
Ohio State opened at +700 to win it all this season and is now -350 with just one game to play.
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