The risk of a miscalculation between Western and Chinese warships in the South China Sea is the highest it has ever been, an expert has said.
With so many foreign navies sailing through what they see as international waters near China, the chance of Xi Jinping’s navy firing a warning shot that is misinterpreted is growing.
Meanwhile, China has for the first time fitted its fleet of nuclear-powered submarines with JL-3 missiles thought to have a range of up to 10,000km (6,200 miles) – enough to strike the US mainland from within their own waters.
Washington regards Beijing’s actions in the region as the “most comprehensive and serious challenge to US national security”.
In its latest national defence strategy published in early November, the US department of defence criticised China’s “coercive and increasingly aggressive endeavour to refashion the Indo-Pacific region and the international system to suit its interests and authoritarian preferences”.
Beijing hit out at the report, saying that it “smears” China and vilifies normal military growth.
Ministry spokesperson Tan Kefei, as quoted in the South China Morning Post, said: “The countries that stubbornly prioritise their own interests above anyone else and gang up on an ‘integrated deterrence’ in the Asia Pacific are the real ‘pacing challenge’ to the international system and the region.”
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“A strong Chinese army is… also a steadfast force to maintain world and regional peace and stability,” he added.
Risk of armed conflict highest it has ever been, analyst says
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“I think the Western powers, the NATO powers, are growing very concerned about what China is doing in this region,” says Ridzwan Rahmat, principal defence analyst for the Janes intelligence agency.
Speaking to Sky News, he said that more and more Western countries are deploying naval forces to the South China Sea – Canada, Germany, France and Australia now among them – and this is raising tensions.
“It has created a form of tinderbox in this part of the world,” he said.
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Sky’s Asia correspondent Helen-Ann Smith shows some of the military jets on display at the Chinese military air show.
“I think there’s a very, very high chance of a miscalculation from any of this navies.
“So this is something that we are watching very, very closely, because as China grows, as more and more of these naval forces are deploy, chances of a miscalculation are increasing by the year.”
Asked if this risk of a miscalculation was the highest it has ever been, Mr Rahmat said yes.
China’s submarines have now been equipped with JL-3 missiles, which have been reported to have a range of up to 10,000km (6,200 miles).
Such a range would allow China to strike the US mainland from within its own territory, and the fact that these missiles can be fired from underwater makes things even more tricky.
“The problem with submarine launch is that you are not able to detect the submarine,” Mr Rahmat says.
He continues: “When you are not able to detect that point of launch it makes it a lot harder to calculate the possible point of impact and the devastation and the kind of defensive manoeuvres that can be taken to overcome it.”
Mr Rahmat says this development represents a “change of posture” in terms of Chinese naval warfare thinking.
The COP29 climate talks have reached a last ditch deal on cash for developing countries, pulling the summit back from the brink of collapse after a group of countries stormed out of a negotiating room earlier.
The slew of deals finally signed off in the small hours of Sunday morning in Azerbaijan includes one that proved hardest of all – one about money.
Eventually the more than 190 countries in Baku agreed a target for richer polluting countries such as the UK, EU and Japan to drum up $300bn a year by 2035 to help poorer nations both curb and adapt to climate change.
It is a far cry from the $1.3trn experts say is needed, and from the $500bn that vulnerable countries like Uganda had said they would be willing to accept.
But in the end they were forced to, knowing they could not afford to live without it, nor wait until next year to try again, when a Donald Trump presidency would make things even harder.
Bolivia’s lead negotiator Diego Pacheco called it an “insult”, while the Marshall Islands’ Tina Stege said it was “not nearly enough, but it’s a start”.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell said: “This new finance goal is an insurance policy for humanity, amid worsening climate impacts hitting every country.
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“No country got everything they wanted, and we leave Baku with a mountain of work still to do. So this is no time for victory laps.”
The funding deal was clinched more than 24 hours into overtime, and against what felt like all the odds.
The fraught two weeks of negotiations pitted the anger of developing countries who are footing the bill for more dangerous weather that they did little to cause, against the tight public finances of rich countries.
A relieved Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, climate envoy for Panama, said there is “light at the end of the tunnel”.
Just hours ago, the talks almost fell apart as furious vulnerable nations stormed out of negotiations in frustration over that elusive funding goal.
They were also angry with oil and gas producing countries, who stood accused of trying to dilute aspects of the deal on cutting fossil fuels.
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Climate-vulnerable nations storm out of talks
The UN talks work on consensus, meaning everyone has to agree for a deal to fly.
A row over how to follow up on last year’s pledge to “transition away from fossil fuels” was left unresolved and punted into next year, following objections from Chile and Switzerland for being too weak.
A draft deal simply “reaffirmed” the commitment but did not dial up the pressure in the way the UK, EU, island states and many others here wanted.
Saudi Arabia fought the hardest against any step forward on cutting fossil fuels, the primary cause of climate change that is intensifying floods, drought and fires around the world.
Governments did manage to strike a deal on carbon markets at COP29, which has been 10 years in the making and will allow countries to trade emissions cuts.
‘Not everything we wanted’
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The UK’s energy secretary, Ed Miliband, said the deal is “not everything we or others wanted”, but described it as a “step forward”.
“It’s a deal that will drive forward the clean energy transition, which is essential for jobs and growth in Britain and for protecting us all against the worsening climate crisis,” he added.
“Today’s agreement sends the signal that the clean energy transition is unstoppable.
“It is the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century and through our championing of it we can help crowd in private investment.”
The Azerbaijan team leading COP29 said: “Every hour of the day, we have pulled people together. Every inch of the way, we have pushed for the highest common denominator.
“We have faced geopolitical headwinds and made every effort to be an honest broker for all sides.”
At least 20 people have been killed and 66 injured in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities have said.
Lebanon‘s health ministry said the death toll could rise as emergency workers dig through the rubble looking for survivors. DNA tests are being used to identify the victims, the ministry added.
The attack destroyed an eight-storey residential building and badly damaged several others around it in the Basta neighbourhood at 4am (2am UK time) on Saturday.
The Israeli military did not warn residents to evacuate before the attack and has not commented on the casualties.
At least four bombs were dropped in the attack – the fourth targeting the city centre this week.
A separate drone strike in the southern port city of Tyre this morning killed two people and injured three, according to the state-run National News Agency.
The victims were Palestinian refugees from the nearby al Rashidieh camp who were out fishing, according to Mohammed Bikai, spokesperson for the Fatah Palestinian faction in the Tyre area.
Israel’s military warned residents today in parts of Beirut’s southern suburbs that they were near Hezbollah facilities, which the army would target in the near future. The warning, posted on X, told people to evacuate at least 500 metres away.
The army said that over the past day it had conducted intelligence-based strikes on Hezbollah targets in Dahiyeh, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where Hezbollah has a strong presence. It said it hit several command centres and weapons storage facilities.
Israel has killed several Hezbollah leaders in air strikes on the capital’s southern suburbs.
Heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is ongoing in southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces push deeper into the country since launching a major offensive in September.
According to the Lebanese health ministry, at least 3,670 people have been killed in Israeli attacks there, with more than 15,400 wounded.
It has displaced about 1.2 million people – a quarter of Lebanon’s population – while Israel says about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed in northern Israel.
Meanwhile, six people, including three children and two women, were killed in the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis.
Some 44,176 Palestinians have been killed since the start of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, according to the Gaza health ministry.
The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but it has said that more than half of the fatalities are women and children.
The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking another 250 hostage.
US envoy Amos Hochstein was in the region this week to try to end more than 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, ignited last October by the war in Gaza.
Mr Hochstein indicated progress had been made after meetings in Beirut on Tuesday and Wednesday, before going to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and defence minister Israel Katz.
Israeli intelligence agency Mossad is investigating the disappearance of a rabbi in Abu Dhabi after receiving information indicating a “terrorist incident”, the Israeli prime minister’s office has said.
Zvi Kogan, an Israeli-Moldovan citizen, has been missing since Thursday.
The Israeli prime minister’s office said the country’s security and intelligence services have been investigating in Abu Dhabi.
It said: “Mossad has updated that since his disappearance, and given information indicating that this is a terrorist incident, an active investigation has been going on in the country.
“Israeli security and intelligence organisations, concerned for Kogan’s safety and wellbeing, have been working tirelessly on this case.”
In a travel advisory, it warned Israelis: “In major cities, or locations where demonstrations or protests are taking place, conceal anything that could identify you as Israeli or Jewish.”
The Israeli government’s travel advisory service warns its citizens to “avoid unnecessary travel” to the UAE as “there is terrorist activity in the UAE, which constitutes a real risk to Israelis who are staying/visiting in the country”.
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The UAE diplomatically recognised Israel in 2020, a deal it has honoured throughout the Israel-Hamas war and Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon.
The Chabad movement is a Hasidic branch of Judaism, according to Chabad Lubavitch UK.
The organisation describes the work of emissaries like Zvi Kogan as “explaining, shedding light, dispelling myths, countering stereotypes” about Judaism.