Risk of miscalculation with Chinese warships highest it has ever been, expert warns
The risk of a miscalculation between Western and Chinese warships in the South China Sea is the highest it has ever been, an expert has said.
With so many foreign navies sailing through what they see as international waters near China, the chance of Xi Jinping’s navy firing a warning shot that is misinterpreted is growing.
Meanwhile, China has for the first time fitted its fleet of nuclear-powered submarines with JL-3 missiles thought to have a range of up to 10,000km (6,200 miles) – enough to strike the US mainland from within their own waters.
Washington regards Beijing’s actions in the region as the “most comprehensive and serious challenge to US national security”.
In its latest national defence strategy published in early November, the US department of defence criticised China’s “coercive and increasingly aggressive endeavour to refashion the Indo-Pacific region and the international system to suit its interests and authoritarian preferences”.
Beijing hit out at the report, saying that it “smears” China and vilifies normal military growth.
Ministry spokesperson Tan Kefei, as quoted in the South China Morning Post, said: “The countries that stubbornly prioritise their own interests above anyone else and gang up on an ‘integrated deterrence’ in the Asia Pacific are the real ‘pacing challenge’ to the international system and the region.”
“A strong Chinese army is… also a steadfast force to maintain world and regional peace and stability,” he added.
Risk of armed conflict highest it has ever been, analyst says
“I think the Western powers, the NATO powers, are growing very concerned about what China is doing in this region,” says Ridzwan Rahmat, principal defence analyst for the Janes intelligence agency.
Speaking to Sky News, he said that more and more Western countries are deploying naval forces to the South China Sea – Canada, Germany, France and Australia now among them – and this is raising tensions.
“It has created a form of tinderbox in this part of the world,” he said.
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Sky’s Asia correspondent Helen-Ann Smith shows some of the military jets on display at the Chinese military air show.
“I think there’s a very, very high chance of a miscalculation from any of this navies.
“So this is something that we are watching very, very closely, because as China grows, as more and more of these naval forces are deploy, chances of a miscalculation are increasing by the year.”
Asked if this risk of a miscalculation was the highest it has ever been, Mr Rahmat said yes.
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Chinese submarines fitted with JL-3 missiles
China’s submarines have now been equipped with JL-3 missiles, which have been reported to have a range of up to 10,000km (6,200 miles).
Such a range would allow China to strike the US mainland from within its own territory, and the fact that these missiles can be fired from underwater makes things even more tricky.
“The problem with submarine launch is that you are not able to detect the submarine,” Mr Rahmat says.
He continues: “When you are not able to detect that point of launch it makes it a lot harder to calculate the possible point of impact and the devastation and the kind of defensive manoeuvres that can be taken to overcome it.”
Mr Rahmat says this development represents a “change of posture” in terms of Chinese naval warfare thinking.
The Syrian presidency has announced it’s assembling a special taskforce to try to stop nearly a week of sectarian clashes in the southern Druze city of Sweida.
The presidency called for restraint on all sides and said it is making strenuous efforts to “stop the fighting and curb the violations that threaten the security of the citizens and the safety of society”.
By early Saturday morning, a ceasefire had been confirmed by the US special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, who posted on X that Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to a ceasefire supported by US secretary of state Marco Rubio.
The post went on to state that this agreement had the support of “Turkey, Jordan and its neighbours” and called upon the Druze, Bedouins, and Sunni factions to put down their arms.
Sky News special correspondent Alex Crawford reports from the road leading to Sweida, the city that has become the epicentre of Syria’s sectarian violence.
For the past 24 hours, we’ve watched as Syria‘s multiple Arab tribes began mobilising in the Sweida province to help defend their Bedouin brethren.
Thousands travelled from multiple different Syrian areas and had reached the edge of Sweida city by Friday nightfall after a day of almost non-stop violent clashes and killings.
“We have come to protect the [Arab] Bedouin women and children who are being terrorised by the Druze,” they told us.
Arab fighters said they had come to protect the Bedouin women and children
Fighters at a petrol station
Every shop and every home in the streets leading up to Sweida city has been burned or ransacked, the contents destroyed or looted.
We saw tribal fighters loading the back of pickup trucks and driving away from the city with vehicles packed with looted goods from Druze homes.
Shops and homes leading up to Sweida city have been burned or ransacked
Several videos posted online showed violence against the Druze, including one where tribal fighters force three men to throw themselves off a high-rise balcony and are seen being shot as they do so.
Doctors at the nearby community hospital in Buser al Harir said there had been a constant stream of casualties being brought in. As we watched, another dead fighter was carried out of an ambulance.
The medics estimated there had been more than 600 dead in their area alone. “The youngest child who was killed was a one-and-a-half-year-old baby,” one doctor told us.
Doctors said there had been a constant stream of casualties due to violence
The violence is the most dangerous outbreak of sectarian clashes since the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime last December – and the most serious challenge for the new leader to navigate.
The newly brokered deal is aimed at ending the sectarian killings and restoring some sort of stability in a country which is emerging from more than a decade of civil war.
Israel and Syria have agreed to a ceasefire, the US ambassador to Turkey has said.
Several hundred people have reportedly been killed this week in the south of Syria in violence involving local fighters, government authorities and Bedouin tribes.
As the violence escalated in the southern province of Sweida, Israel launched airstrikes, including attacks on Wednesday on the defence ministry in Damascus and a target near the presidential palace.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government said it aimed to protect Syrian Druze – part of a small but influential minority that also has followers in Lebanon and Israel.
In a post on X, the US ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, said Israel and Syria had agreed to a ceasefire supported by Turkey, Jordan and others.
“We call upon Druze, Bedouins, and Sunnis to put down their weapons and together with other minorities build a new and united Syrian identity,” Mr Barrack said in a post on X.
The Israeli embassy in Washington and Syrian Consulate in Canada did not immediately comment or respond to requests for comment from the Reuters news agency.
The ceasefire announcement came after the US worked to put an end to the conflict, with secretary of state Marco Rubio saying on Wednesday that steps had been agreed to end a “troubling and horrifying situation”.
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Why is Israel bombing Syria?
After Israel warned it would destroy forces attacking Syrian Druze, Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa told the minority group in a televised statement on Thursday that “we reject any attempt to drag you into hands of an external party”.
He then claimed Israel has “consistently targeted our stability and created discord among us since the fall of the former regime”.
It comes after the United Nations’ migration agency said earlier on Friday that nearly 80,000 people had been displaced in the region since violence broke out on Sunday.
It also said that essential services, including water and electricity, had collapsed in Sweida, telecommunications systems were widely disrupted, and health facilities in Sweida and Daraa were under severe strain.
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At least three people have been killed after a “horrific incident” at a Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department training facility, officials have said.
A spokesperson for the department said there was an explosion at the Biscailuz Center Academy Training in east LA.
The incident was reported at around 7.30am local time (3.30pm UK time).
Aerial footage from local channel KABC-TV suggests the blast happened in a parking lot filled with sheriff patrol cars and box trucks.
The training centre in east LA. Pic: NBC Los Angeles
Attorney general Pam Bondi wrote on X: “I just spoke to @USAttyEssayli about what appears to be a horrific incident that killed at least three at a law enforcement training facility in Los Angeles.
“Our federal agents are at the scene and we are working to learn more.”
California congressman Jimmy Sanchez said the explosion had “claimed the lives of at least three deputies”.
“My condolences to the families and everyone impacted by this loss,” he said.
Media and law enforcement officials near the explosion site. Pic: AP
The attorney general said in a follow-up post that agents from the FBI and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives are “on the ground to support”.
The mayor of Los Angeles, Karen Bass, said the LAPD bomb squad has also responded to the scene.
“The thoughts of all Angelenos are with all of those impacted by this blast,” she said.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has been briefed on the incident, his press office said in a post on X.
“The Governor’s Office of Emergency Services is in contact with the Sheriff’s Department and closely monitoring the situation, and has offered full state assistance,” it added.
The cause of the explosion is being investigated.
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