Way-too-early Heisman contenders for the 2023 college football season
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ESPN staff
The 2022 Heisman Trophy ceremony has come and gone, and college football’s top honor went to a player who now will have a chance to become just the second player to win the award twice, joining Ohio State’s Archie Griffin (1974 and ’75).
USC’s Caleb Williams won the award but still has multiple seasons to play before taking his talents to the NFL. Stetson Bennett, C.J. Stroud and Max Duggan had great years and led their teams to the College Football Playoff, but Williams’ outstanding season couldn’t be topped in voters’ minds.
It’s never too early to look ahead at next year’s contenders, led by Williams. A look at the 2023 Heisman race:
Top contenders
Can Williams repeat? It’s unlikely, given it has happened only once in the history of the award, but he’ll surely be a favorite, odds-wise, going into next season. What’s unique about Williams’ case is that he’ll be set up even better than he was this past year to succeed. Williams will now have two years of playing in the Lincoln Riley offense under his belt as well as a plethora of talented options around him once again. USC will need to replace Jordan Addison and most of a strong offensive line, but the biggest challenge might be the fact that Williams will have to surpass the bar he set this season: over 4,000 passing yards, 47 total touchdowns and a surplus of Houdini-like scrambling highlights that helped him secure the award this year. — Paolo Uggetti
Considering he was kinda sorta discussed as a contender in 2022, Maye should be on the preseason list headed into 2023 after a breakout redshirt freshman season. Maye threw for 4,115 yards, 35 touchdowns and seven interceptions to win ACC Player of the Year honors and lead North Carolina to the ACC championship game. Top receiver Josh Downs is headed to the NFL draft, so a new favorite target is needed moving forward. But there is a reason many believe Maye is in position to be a high NFL draft pick in 2024. One ACC coach said this about Maye: “He’s got great pocket presence. He’s special. He’s just got ‘it.'” — Andrea Adelson
Morris beat out Max Duggan in camp and was the Horned Frogs’ starter before an injury. Sonny Dykes loves how he throws the ball, and TCU will reload at receiver. In Morris’ first start against Baylor‘s Big 12 champion team in 2021, he had 531 yards and three TDs. His 461 passing yards were third in Big 12 history for a player in his first career start. After watching Duggan become a Heisman finalist in his senior year, Morris will take the reins, ready to have a breakout season of his own. — Dave Wilson
Up-and-comers
Look, we’re not saying he’s going to win a Heisman as a freshman, but the quarterback spot will be up for grabs after Quinn Ewers‘ struggles in 2022, and the Longhorns will have talented players around him, including outstanding tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders — a quarterback’s best friend. Sarkisian likes to throw it, so if he wins the job, he’ll get a shot to produce. And if there’s anyone who’s used to dealing with the burden of expectations, it’s Manning. — Wilson
Consider this a placeholder for whoever becomes Ohio State’s — or Alabama’s! — starting quarterback next year. There could be some twists and turns in both QB battles, but we know that McCord was C.J. Stroud‘s backup this season, and we know that he was super sharp in tiny doses. He finished the regular season 16-for-20 for 190 yards and a touchdown, and he has the recruiting pedigree (No. 33 overall recruit in 2021, No. 6 pocket passer) to suggest he could put up something approaching Stroud-like numbers for a full season if asked to, especially with the skill corps options he will have at his disposal. — Bill Connelly
He was the No. 1 dual-threat QB in the class of 2022, and when, after weeks of speculation and expectation, he took over for the struggling DJ Uiagalelei in the ACC championship, he proceeded to obliterate North Carolina’s defense, going 20-for-24 for 279 yards and a touchdown. He has all the tools, he has exciting young receivers (Antonio Williams, Beaux Collins, Cole Turner) and he has a workhorse back next to him in Will Shipley. No one would be surprised if he turned himself into a front-runner rather quickly. — Connelly
Momentum players
Now that Travis has announced he is returning to Florida State for his sixth season of eligibility, it is time to truly appreciate what he did in 2022, and what that should mean for 2023. Those outside Tallahassee might regard him as a “running” quarterback,” but that would be disregarding his passing ability — and that was on full display in leading the Seminoles to a 9-3 season while earning second-team All-ACC honors. Travis is the first player in Florida State history with at least 20 touchdown passes and seven rushing touchdowns in a season, and the fourth player in school history with at least 3,000 total yards and 30 total touchdowns in a season. The others happen to be Heisman Trophy winners: Charlie Ward (1993), Chris Weinke (2000) and Jameis Winston (2013). — Adelson
A 6-5, 230-pound senior, the former Oregon transfer could still toy with entering the NFL after starting in the Texas Bowl. The Red Raiders played three different QBs this year, but Shough started all three of Tech’s wins over Kansas, Iowa State and Oklahoma, including passing for 436 yards and two touchdowns in the 51-48 OT win over the Sooners. Against Kansas, he threw for 246 yards and ran for 76 more with a touchdown. A full year in Zach Kittley’s system in Lubbock would result in huge numbers. — Wilson
No quarterback had more passing yards in the nation than Penix, who finished with 4,354 after transferring to Seattle from Indiana. Had it not been for back-to-back losses against UCLA and ASU, Penix would have likely been a Heisman finalist. And there’s a good argument to be made that he should have been in New York regardless. But the Huskies will get their quarterback for one more season. Penix announced he would be returning to school next year, and the way he shined over the course of this season makes him not only a rising contender, but perhaps just one or two games away from being a favorite. — Uggetti
We don’t yet know the intentions of Michigan’s star back, Blake Corum, who recently underwent season-ending surgery on an injured knee. If he chooses to return to Michigan and again finds fifth gear, then he automatically becomes a front-runner. But if he doesn’t, the Wolverines’ run game might not miss a beat with Edwards taking over instead. In two games as the feature back, he rushed 47 times for 401 yards and three TDs against Ohio State and Purdue, and he’s already proved himself one of the nation’s better receiving threats out of the backfield. He’s the total package. — Connelly
The Heisman is generally a quarterback award for obvious reasons, but who was the only non-QB to win in the past seven years? A receiver (DeVonta Smith, 2020)! And who emerged as the scariest receiver in the country down the stretch? Harrison. The sophomore had 1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns for the season but raised his game late, averaging 112 yards per game and 16.4 yards per catch over the final five games of the regular season. He has the pedigree and the production, and he’ll be on just about every preseason All-American list to start 2023. — Connelly
In his first year at a new school, battling a few injuries and learning a completely new system, all the Arizona State transfer did was throw for 2,774 yards and 16 touchdowns, rush for 818 and 11 more scores and lead LSU to an upset of Alabama and an SEC West title. If he chooses to return to Baton Rouge in 2023, he would enjoy solid continuity in the receiving corps with Malik Nabers, Kayshon Boutte and others returning, and he could produce at an even higher level. — Connelly
Redemption stories
NC State launched a Heisman campaign for Leary in August called “D Leary Delivers” after he threw for 3,433 yards, 35 touchdowns and five interceptions the previous season. But his year got off to a slow start before he suffered a season-ending pectoral injury in October. Now he is in the transfer portal, so perhaps he will end up being a Heisman contender after all. — Adelson
After suffering a concussion on a brutal late targeting hit against TCU, Gabriel missed the Texas game the next week as well. He finished the regular season with 2,925 yards passing and 24 TDs to 6 INTs. Most of his numbers were right on track with his consistent career trajectory. If Oklahoma improves and Gabriel produces, he’ll get his time in the spotlight. — Wilson
The first 12-team College Football Playoff is down to the final two contenders: Notre Dame and Ohio State.
The seventh-seeded Fighting Irish and eighth-seeded Buckeyes will meet Jan. 20 at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T. Whichever team wins will end a championship drought. Notre Dame aims for its first title since 1988. Ohio State’s lull isn’t nearly as long, as the Buckeyes won the first CFP championship a decade ago, but given how consistently elite they are, it seems like a while.
Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman and Ohio State’s Ryan Day are also aiming for their first championships as head coaches, and Freeman’s past will be in the spotlight. Freeman and the Irish lost to the Buckeyes and Day in each of the past two seasons. But after a masterful coaching job this season, Freeman now will face his alma mater — he was an All-Big Ten linebacker for Ohio State under coach Jim Tressel — with everything on the line. Day, meanwhile, can secure the loftiest goal for a team that fell short of earlier ones, but never stopped swinging.
Here’s your first look at the championship matchup and what to expect in the ATL. — Adam Rittenberg
When: Jan. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in the semifinal: Notre Dame’s resilience and situational awareness/execution are undeniably its signature traits and could propel the team to a title. The Irish have overcome injuries all season and did so again against Penn State. They also erased two deficits and continued to hold the edge in the “middle eight” — the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half — while dominating third down on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame can rely on front men such as quarterback Riley Leonard, running back Jeremiyah Love and linebacker Jack Kiser, but also on backup QB Steve Angeli, wide receiver Jaden Greathouse and kicker Mitch Jeter. These Irish fight, and they’re very hard to knock out.
X factor: Greathouse entered Thursday with moderate numbers — 29 receptions, 359 yards, one touchdown — and had only three total catches for 14 yards in the first two CFP games. But he recorded career highs in both receptions (7) and receiving yards (105) and tied the score on a 54-yard touchdown with 4:38 to play. A Notre Dame offense looking for more from its wide receivers, especially downfield, could lean more on Greathouse, who exceeded his receptions total from the previous five games but might be finding his groove at the perfect time. He also came up huge in the clutch, recording all but six of his receiving yards in the second half.
How Notre Dame wins: The Irish won’t have the talent edge in Atlanta, partly because they’ve lost several stars to season-ending injuries, but they have the right traits to hang with any opponent. Notre Dame needs contributions in all three phases and must continue to sprinkle in downfield passes, an element offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has pushed. And they finally did start seeing results against Penn State. The Irish likely can’t afford to lose the turnover margin, although they can help themselves by replicating their third-down brilliance — 11 of 17 conversions on offense, 3 of 11 conversions allowed on defense — from the Penn State win. — Rittenberg
What we learned in the semifinal: The Buckeyes have a defense with championship mettle, headlined by senior defensive end Jack Sawyer, who delivered one of the biggest defensive plays in Ohio State history. On fourth-and-goal with just over two minutes remaining, Sawyer sacked Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, forcing a fumble that he scooped up and raced 83 yards for a game-clinching touchdown, propelling Ohio State to the national title game. The Buckeyes weren’t perfect in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, and they struggled offensively for much of the night against a talented Texas defense. But Ohio State showed late why its defense is arguably the best in college football, too.
X factor: The play two snaps before the Sawyer scoop-and-score set the table. On second-and-goal from the Ohio State 1-yard line, unheralded senior safety Lathan Ransom dashed past incoming blockers and dropped Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner for a 7-yard loss. After an incomplete pass, the Longhorns were forced into desperation mode on fourth-and-goal down a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining. All-American safety Caleb Downs, who had an interception on Texas’ ensuing drive, rightfully gets all the headlines for the Ohio State secondary. But the Buckeyes have other veteran standouts such as Ransom throughout their defense.
How Ohio State wins: Texas took away Ohio State’s top offensive playmaker, true freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who had only one reception for 3 yards on three targets. As the first two playoff games underscored, the Buckeyes offense is at its best when Smith gets the ball early and often. Notre Dame is sure to emulate the Texas blueprint, positioning the defensive backs to challenge Smith. Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has to counter with a plan that finds ways to get the ball into Smith’s hands, no matter what the Fighting Irish do. — Jake Trotter
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Doug Greenberg, ESPN
Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite over Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T, per ESPN BET odds.
If that line holds, it would be tied for the second-largest spread in a CFP national championship game and the fourth largest in the CFP/BCS era. Georgia was -13.5 against TCU in the 2022 national championship, while Alabama showed -9.5 against none other than Ohio State to decide the 2020 campaign. Both favorites covered the spread in blowout fashion, combining for a cover margin of 63.
Notre Dame is 12-3 against the spread this season, tied with Arizona State (12-2) and Marshall (12-1) for the most covers in the nation. The Irish are 7-0 ATS against ranked teams and 2-0 ATS as underdogs, with both covers going down as outright victories, including their win over Penn State (-1.5) in the CFP national semifinal.
However, Notre Dame was also on the losing end of the largest outright upset of the college football season when it fell as a 28.5-point favorite to Northern Illinois.
Ohio State is 9-6 against the spread and has been a favorite in every game it has played this season; it has covered the favorite spread in every CFP game thus far, including in its semifinal win against Texas when it covered -6 with overwhelming public support.
The Buckeyes also have been an extremely popular pick in the futures market all season. At BetMGM as of Friday morning, OSU had garnered a leading 28.2% of money and 16.8% of bets to win the national title, checking in as the sportsbook’s greatest liability.
Ohio State opened at +700 to win it all this season and is now -350 with just one game to play.
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