The untold story of Mike Leach’s ‘lost’ OU play script that fooled Texas
Editor’s note: This story was originally published in 2018.
Few rivalries in sports fuel as much hostility and pressure to win like college football’s annual Red River Showdown between Oklahoma and Texas.
And through the years, those monumental stakes have led to some serious skullduggery. The most notable example came in 1972, when the Sooners spied on Texas’ practices, allowing them to block a quick kick the Longhorns had secretly been working on en route to a victory.
Now, thanks to Mike Leach, the 1999 game can officially be added to that same legacy.
During pregame warm-ups of that year’s Red River Showdown, an underhanded script outlining OU’s opening offensive plays was spotted on the field by one of Texas’ student assistants, who scooped it up and took it to Longhorns defensive coordinator Carl Reese. To the heavily favored Longhorns, it seemed as if they’d caught an enormous break.
“We were trying to figure out if it was authentic,” Reese said. “We were in this state of, ‘Can we believe this?'”
They shouldn’t have.
It was a fake, part of a plot hatched by Leach, the Sooners’ offensive coordinator, and consulted by the Longhorns, who quickly fell behind 17-0 before realizing they’d been duped.
“That does sound like Mike,” said former Texas coach Mack Brown, unaware of the script at the time. “I do know this: Offensive coordinators are so careful with those scripts they wouldn’t be losing them. Those things are valuable. Only Mike would think to lay one out there as a decoy.”
In his 2011 book “Swing Your Sword,” Leach briefly mentioned the lark. But he never knew for sure just how seriously the Longhorns had taken it, how often they’d referenced it or just how effective it had been.
He was elated to learn recently that they had fallen for it so hard.
“These things evolve and become somewhat legendary,” Leach said.
Leading up to the game, Leach didn’t tell OU coach Bob Stoops he was planting it, and Reese didn’t inform Brown he had it. As a result, few people on either side knew of the decoy script’s existence. And yet, it nearly propelled the underdog Sooners, with Stoops in his first year and OU coming off a 5-6 season, to a victory.
“That game might’ve been the most bizarre experience I ever had as a college football player,” said Ahmad Brooks, a starting defensive back for the Longhorns. “I can’t tell you how wrong we were in the first three or four minutes with every playcall we had. I’ve never seen anything like it.
“It was complete pandemonium, and it was complete confusion.”
Reese finally trashed the script, and Texas settled back into its game plan to rally and roll 38-28.
But not before Leach unleashed pandemonium upon the Longhorns for a quarter.
“It was a decent effort,” Leach said. “But it would even be more legendary if we had won the sucker.”
A decent effort, fit for such a heated rivalry.
“Yeah, it was kind of shady,” said former OU tight end Trent Smith, whom Leach drafted to “accidentally” drop the sheet in front of the Texas coaches.
“But it’s OU-Texas. There are no rules.”
On the Wednesday night of game week, Leach was with OU offensive assistant Cale Gundy when the two began laughing about how funny it would be to create a decoy script for the Longhorns.
“You start out kind of joking around about it,” Leach said. “And then it’s like, ‘All right, screw it. Why not? Let’s do it.’ Then we had to think of stuff to put on it.”
Leach didn’t want to just mess with Texas. He wanted to use the ploy to gain an edge. So he took actual plays he had been planning to call and began doctoring up potential companions alongside them.
“In other words, with the fake playcall, we wanted to complement it,” he explained. “We would run something that would hopefully attack the space that we created by what they thought the play was gonna be.”
For the decoy script, Leach began inputting plays the Sooners didn’t even have in their system. And he invented the terminology for them as he went along, balancing the line between too complex to understand and too simple to be believable.
“It had to look like our terminology,” Leach continued. “But Z-25 Jet, they may not know what the hell that means, you know? But you didn’t wanna get busted, either. So it had to sound football-ish.”
When he’d finished his masterpiece, Leach put Gundy’s name at the top of it, as if it were Gundy’s copy of OU’s offensive play script. Then, he had it laminated to make it look official.
“That’s Mike,” Gundy said. “It was funny.”
Outside of Gundy, Leach kept the rest of the coaching staff in the dark, including Stoops, who was preparing for his first Red River Showdown.
“I figured Bob had enough problems and we’d let Bob just go ahead and deal with some Bob stuff,” Leach said. “It was really me and Cale. You couldn’t tell too many because if you did, the cat would get outta the bag or you’d have too many guys looking suspicious.”
Next, Leach had to figure out how to lure Texas into taking the bait.
During the 1999 season, Leach, Smith and fullback Seth Littrell had a little tradition during pregame warm-ups.
“Back then, Coach Leach and me and Seth all dipped Copenhagen snuff,” Smith recalled. “I would always carry the can out on the field during pregame. So I remember [Leach] calling me over and asking for the can. We were all going to take a dip together and he was like, ‘All right, here’s the deal, guys …’ explaining this to me and Seth. I just remember how excited he was about it. I got the feeling this was a total rogue thing that he was doing on his own.
“But he was like, ‘Oh, this is going to be amazing. This is going to be hilarious. This is going to be epic.'”
As Leach carried on, Littrell and Smith grew just as excited.
“I thought it was pretty clever, to be honest,” Littrell said.
“Yeah, it was kind of shady, but it’s OU-Texas. There are no rules.”
Former Oklahoma tight end Trent Smith
Leach then handed the script to Smith and ordered him to execute the plant, which he did to perfection.
“He says, ‘I’m going to walk off. I want you to stand here for a minute. Then, I want you to drop it right in front of their coaches over there and then just keep jogging,” Smith said. “It was kind of exciting. I act like I’m going to tuck this script in the belt on my pants. I let it fall and just kept jogging as though I thought I still had it.
“It was killing me not to look back and see if it had worked.”
Off to the side, Leach kept the discarded script within his peripheral vision. To his delight, he watched as Texas student assistant Casey Horny picked it up.
“The body language was awesome. It was like watching a Muttley cartoon,” Leach said, referring to the villainous 1960s dog who was the sidekick to Dick Dastardly. “They decided to give it the Muttley snicker and then went up the tunnel.”
Back in the locker room, a few of the Texas coaches, including Reese, secondary coach Everett Withers and Tom Herman, just a grad assistant that season, passed around the script, attempting to determine what to make of it.
“It was one of those deals where we were like, ‘No, this can’t be real,'” said Withers, now head coach at Texas State. “But we all kind of thought it was.”
They ultimately decided not to go to Brown with it. Instead, Reese took the script with him up to the press box.
“That’s when I really looked it over and we talked a little bit about it,” Reese said. “Everybody really thought it was the real deal.”
Reese began tweaking his defensive calls to match the script. And it wouldn’t take long for that to backfire.
“I just remember sitting in the huddle that first drive and kind of giggling,” Littrell said. “Like, they think they know what we’re fixin’ to do.”
The second play of the script called for something akin to a double-reverse pass. In response, the Longhorns brought Brooks on a nickel blitz with the goal of sacking the Sooners for a big loss.
Instead, Leach snuck freshman receiver Antwone Savage behind the linebackers on a shallow crossing route going the other direction to the right. Quarterback Josh Heupel found him so wide open that Savage galloped untouched for a 44-yard touchdown.
“We thought maybe we just screwed the verbiage up,” Herman said.
So despite getting torched for a touchdown in two plays, Texas didn’t immediately give up on the script. In turn, its defense grew only more discombobulated.
Reese was concerned about all the screens on the decoy script. So when he otherwise would’ve brought pressure, he sat back, giving Heupel ample time to pick Texas apart. According to Withers, the Longhorns were also unsettled by all the wrinkles in the script they hadn’t prepared for, such as backs going for passes out of the backfield.
“We were so worried about it that we weren’t worried about just doing our job,” Withers said. “It captivated our attention, and it was probably the reason they were so effective in the first quarter.”
When the Sooners went up 17-0 just 10 minutes into the game, Reese finally scrapped the script.
“It was tossed into the trash can,” he said. “At that point, you thought you’d been had. I just got back to the basics and started looking at what was really going on and trying to adjust to it.”
That’s all the Longhorns really needed. They dominated the rest of the way, picking off Heupel three times, including once by Brooks.
“The thing you didn’t want is those Longhorns just triggering at you full steam without any hesitation,” Leach said. “Because they were pretty overpowering at that point.”
They indeed overpowered the Sooners to complete Texas’ largest comeback in 34 years. The Longhorns held them to just one more touchdown, which didn’t come until late in the third quarter after Texas had built a 31-20 lead.
“When it was all over with, I had a good laugh,” Reese said. “Because it really was a nice ploy, and it did a good job of messing us up for a while.
“I learned a good lesson there.”
After the game, the Texas assistants were suspicious that Leach had been the one to plant the decoy script. But they weren’t positive.
“I had thought, based on his reputation — I mean that not negatively at all — but that it was certainly something that he might do,” Herman said. “I don’t know that I ever got confirmation until I talked to somebody who was on the Oklahoma staff, and they adamantly confirmed, ‘Oh yeah, that’s something he was working on all week.'”
Brooks, meanwhile, said he and his teammates remained mystified as to why their defense had looked so lost that first quarter.
“The funny part is, I didn’t hear that story until Tom told it a year ago,” he said. “The coaches never tipped us off that that had been found, so we had no idea.
“It was a brilliant move by Mike Leach.”
As for Leach, he’d never been told of Texas’ account of the event, either.
“Was Herman there?” Leach asked, before being reminded Herman was an assistant then, after which he perked up. “Oh, so what did he say? I’ve never heard their side. What did he say happened?”
For Herman and the eight other assistants or players in the game who would go on to become future head coaches, it was a valuable reminder that something that seems too good to be true probably is.
“Hey man, they shouldn’t have been trying to cheat,” said Littrell, now head coach at North Texas. “That’s why they got duped.”
Knowing the fruits of his efforts, Leach obviously doesn’t feel any shame. Only more pride.
“Well,” Leach said, “nobody said you had to pick it up and read it.
“It’s like, listen closer in your Sunday school lessons, and it probably wouldn’t have come so easily for us.”
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Bill Connelly
Back in May, ESPN’s team of college football reporters voted on the sport’s best coaches for 2025. The results were about as you would expect: Start with the three active guys who have most recently won national titles (Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney), move on to guys with recent top-five finishes or national title game appearances (Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, Penn State’s James Franklin), then squeeze in a couple of long-term overachievers at the end (Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell).
The rankings made plenty of sense, but I couldn’t help but notice that the top eight coaches on the list all work for some of the richest, most well-supported programs in the country. There are some epic pressures associated with leading these programs — just ask Day — but there are also major advantages. It might only take a good head coach to do great things in those jobs, while at programs with smaller alumni bases or lesser historic track records, it might take a great coach to do merely good things. They’re such different jobs that it’s almost impossible to even know how to compare the performance of, say, Matt Campbell to Steve Sarkisian. Could Campbell have led Texas to back-to-back CFP semifinals? Could Sark have brought ISU its first two AP top-15 finishes?
The May rankings made me want to see if there were a way to apply stats to the conversation. If you think about it, we’re basically measuring two things when we’re gauging coach performance: overall quality and quality relative to the expectations of the job. I thought it would be fun to come up with a blend of those two things and see what the results told us.
Performance versus expectation
Gauging overall performance is easy enough. You could simply look at win percentage, and it would tell you quite a bit. From 2015 to 2024, the active coaches with the best FBS win percentages (minimum 30 games) were Day (.870), Lanning (.854), Swinney (.850) and Smart (.847). All ranked high in the May rankings. I tend to want to get fancy and use my SP+ ratings whenever possible, and they tell a similar tale. Looking at average SP+ ratings for the past decade, the top active coaches are Day (30.4), Smart (27.0), Lanning (22.3), Swinney (21.9), Franklin (20.3) and Freeman (19.0). They’re all in the May top 10 too.
Again, though, all of those coaches are employed by college football royalty. (Granted, Swinney gets bonus points for helping Clemson turn into college football royalty, but still.) Isn’t it more impressive to win 11 regular-season games at Indiana, as Curt Cignetti did in 2024, than to go 10-4 like Swinney did? Isn’t it probably harder to finish 12th in SP+ at SMU, as Rhett Lashlee did in 2024, than to finish fifth like Franklin did?
I’ve begun to incorporate teams’ performance against long-term averages into my preseason SP+ projections, and it seems we could use a very similar concept to evaluate coach performances. For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years. (If the school is newer to FBS and doesn’t have a 20-year average, we can use whatever average exists to date. And for a program’s first FBS season, we can simply compare the team’s SP+ rating to the overall average for first-year programs.)
By this method, the 10 best single-season coaching performances of the past 20 years include Art Briles at Baylor in 2013-14, Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2010, Mark Mangino at Kansas in 2007, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2006, Greg Schiano at Rutgers in 2006 and Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina in 2020 — legendary seasons of overachievement — plus perhaps lesser-remembered performances such as Gary Andersen at Utah State in 2012, Matt Wells at Utah State in 2018 and Brian Kelly at Cincinnati in 2007.
As far as single-season overachievement goes, that’s a pretty good list. And if we look at a longer-term sample — coaches who have led FBS programs for at least nine of the past 20 years — here are the 15 best performance versus baseline averages.
(Note: I’m looking only at performances within the past 20 years, so Nick Saban’s work at LSU (2000-04) or Michigan State (1995-99), for instance, isn’t included. I also went with nine years instead of 10 so Smart’s current nine-year run at Georgia could be included in the sample.)
Best performance vs. historic baseline averages for the past 20 years (min. nine seasons):
1. Chris Petersen, Boise State (2006-13) and Washington (2014-19): +12.8 points above historic baseline
2. Art Briles, Houston (2005-07) and Baylor (2008-15): +12.8
3. Gary Pinkel, Missouri (2005-15): +12.5
4. Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23): +10.7
5. Jeff Monken, Army (2014-24): +10.3
6. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern (2014-15), Tulane (2016-23) and Houston (2024): +10.0
7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo (2015-20) and Kansas (2021-24): +9.5
8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville (2005-06), Arkansas (2008-11), Western Kentucky (2013) and Louisville (2014-18): +9.5
9. Gary Patterson, TCU (2005-21): +8.6
10. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford (2007-10) and Michigan (2015-23): +8.5
11. Blake Anderson, Arkansas State (2014-20) and Utah State (2021-23): +8.5
12. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005-15): +8.2
13. Greg Schiano, Rutgers (2005-11 and 2020-24): +7.8
14. Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky (2014-16), Purdue (2017-22) and Louisville (2023-24): +7.7
15. David Cutcliffe, Duke (2008-21): +7.7
If we are looking for pure overachievement and aren’t in the mood to reward coaches for winning at schools that always win, this is again a pretty good list. Petersen was spectacular at both Boise State and Washington, while Briles, Pinkel, Monken and Patterson all won big at schools that hadn’t won big in quite a while. (Monken, in fact, is still winning big.) Blake Anderson’s presence surprised me, but most of the names here are extremely well regarded. And Saban’s presence at No. 4, despite coaching at one of the bluest of blue-blood programs, is a pretty good indicator of just how special his reign at Alabama was.
Still, looking only at performance against expectations obviously sells coaches like Saban and Smart short. Saban is probably the best head coach in the sport’s history but ranks only fourth on the above list. Meanwhile, Smart has overachieved by only 6.0 points above the historic baseline in his nine seasons at Georgia thanks to the high bar predecessor Mark Richt set. But he has also won two national titles, overcoming Georgia’s history of falling just short and at least briefly surpassing Saban as well. If our goal is to measure coaching prowess, we need to account for raw quality too.
The best coaches of the past 20 years
If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating. We can debate the weights involved, but here’s what an overall rating looks like if we use 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average:
I always like to say that numbers make great starting points for a conversation, and this is a pretty good starting point. Anyone reading this would probably tweak this list to suit their own preferences, and while it probably isn’t surprising that Pinkel is in the top 20, seeing him fourth, ahead of Meyer, Harbaugh and others, is a bit jarring. (I promise that this Mizzou alum didn’t put his finger on the scales.) Regardless, this is a fun mix of guys who won big at big schools and guys who won pretty big at pretty big schools. That was the goal of the exercise.
Maybe the most confusing coach in this top 20 is Dabo Swinney. Clemson had enjoyed just one AP top-five finish in its history before he took over 16 years ago, and he has led the Tigers to 2 national titles, 6 top-five finishes and 7 CFP appearances. And while they haven’t had a true, title-caliber team in a few years, they’ve still won two of the past three ACC crowns. How is he only 10th?
The main culprit for Swinney’s lower-than-expected ranking is his recent performance — it has been inferior to both national title standards and his standards. Since we’re using a team’s performance against 20-year averages, a lot of this rating is basically comparing Swinney to himself, and he hasn’t quite measured up of late.
From 2012 to 2020, Swinney’s average rating was an incredible 17.0, which would have ranked second to only Saban on the list above. But his average over the past four seasons is only 3.6.
Part of what made Saban so impressive was how long he managed to clear the bar he himself was setting in Tuscaloosa. Per SP+, his best team was his 14th — the 2020 team that won his sixth and final title at Bama. While Swinney was basically matching Saban’s standard 12 years into their respective tenures, Saban continued at a particularly high level for at least three more years while Swinney fell off the pace.
Comparing Saban, Swinney and Smart year by year, we see that Smart was hitting Saban-esque levels seven seasons into his tenure, but his rating has fallen off each of the past two seasons. Even Saban slipped starting in Year 15, even though he still had nearly the best program in the sport for a couple more years.
The best coaches of 2025
Six of the top seven coaches on the list above are either retired or coaching in the NFL now, so let’s focus our gaze specifically on the guys who will be leading college teams out onto the field in 2025. Using the same 20-year sample as above — which cuts off the tenure of Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but includes everything else — here’s how the current crop of FBS head coaches has performed at the FBS level. We’ll break this into two samples: the guys who have coached for at least four years in this sample and the guys who have coached between one and three years.
Our May top 10 list featured eight guys who have been head coaches for at least four years; all eight are represented on this list, including four of the top five. (Sarkisian has averaged a 13.8 rating over the past two seasons, which is a top-five level, but his overall run as head coach at Washington, USC and Texas has featured a number of ups and downs.)
Maybe the name that jumps out the most above is Josh Heupel. I think anyone would consider him a very good coach (he’s 37-15 overall), but he doesn’t exactly draw any “best in the game?” hype. He benefited from a positive situation at UCF, where he inherited a rising program from Scott Frost in 2019 and produced big ratings in his first couple of years on the job. But his average rating at Tennessee has been a solid 14.0 as well; the Volunteers had been up and down for years, but he has produced four top-20 SP+ ratings in a row and two top-10s in the past three years. He might not be getting the credit he deserves for that.
All in all, I enjoy this list. We’ve got mostly predictable names at the top, we’ve got some oldies but (mostly) goodies spread throughout, and we’ve got room for up-and-comers like Jeff Traylor too. This 60-40 approach probably doesn’t give enough respect to the Chris Creightons of the world — the Eastern Michigan coach has overachieved against EMU’s baseline by 7.2 points per season, which is a fantastic average, but at such a hard job, his Eagles have still averaged only a minus-14.4 SP+ rating during his tenure. Still, this is a mostly solid approach.
Now let’s talk about some small-sample all-stars.
Four of the top six of this list coached in the College Football Playoff last season, and while the guys ranked fifth and sixth made our May top 10 list, the guys who won big at SMU and Indiana, not Oregon and Notre Dame, take priority here. I was honestly floored that Curt Cignetti didn’t make our top 10 list; he led James Madison to one of the best FBS debuts ever, going 19-4 in 2022-23, then he moved to Bloomington and led Indiana — INDIANA! — to 11 wins in his first season there.
On this list, however, Rhett Lashlee tops even Cignetti. I’m not sure we’ve talked enough about the job he has done at SMU. He, too, inherited a rising program, as Sonny Dykes had done some of the nitty-gritty work in getting the Mustangs back on their feet (with help from an offensive coordinator named Rhett Lashlee). SMU hadn’t produced a top-50 ranking since 1985 before Dykes did so for three straight seasons (2019-21). But after holding steady in his first year replacing Dykes, Lashlee’s program has ignited: 12-2 and 24th in SP+ in 2023, then 11-3 and 12th in 2024. Looking specifically at the 2021-24 range, as the game has undergone so much change, Lashlee’s 16.8 average rating ranks second overall, behind only Smart (18.0) and ahead of Kiffin (15.1), Cignetti (15.0), Odom (15.0), Heupel (14.0) and Day (13.9).
Along with quite a few others here, Lashlee made my 2024 list of 30 coaches who would define the next decade; he’d definitely still be on the list — along with new additions like GJ Kinne and perhaps Fran Brown — if I remade that list today.
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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