The nuclear fusion breakthrough heralded on Tuesday was a historic event, culminating decades of research.
At the same time, fusion power will not be contributing electricity to any power grid for at least a decade, according to most industry watchers. To get there, there will have to be many more technical breakthroughs beyond what was celebrated on Tuesday — and the money to fund them.
Just after 1 a.m. on Monday, Dec. 5, researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California executed a successful experiment to produce more energy from a nuclear fusion reaction than went into the lasers used to power the reaction.
“We got out 3.15 megajoules, we put in 2.05 megajoules in the laser,” said Mark Herrmann, a program director at Lawrence Livermore, on Tuesday. “That’s never been done before in any fusion laboratory anywhere in the world. So it’s super exciting.”
In a technical panel discussion after the main press announcement on Tuesday, scientists on the team recounted their reactions on learning the news.
Tammy Ma, a laser-plasma physicist at the lab, was waiting in an airport when her boss called her. “I burst into tears. I was jumping up and down in the waiting area, the crazy person.”
It took about 300 megajoules of energy from the electricity grid to fire the laser that was used in the experiment, said Herrmann on Tuesday. That’s equivalent to what is included in about two-and-a-half gallons of gasoline.
All of that energy went into the laser fusion reaction that showed net gain of about 1.1 megajoules — enough energy to boil a teakettle maybe two or three times.
“This is a science achievement, not a practical one,” Omar A. Hurricane, a chief scientist at Lawrence Livermore, told CNBC.
But the amount of energy isn’t the point. “The laser wasn’t designed to be efficient. The laser was designed to give us as much juice as possible to make this incredible conditions possible,” Herrmann said. “So there are many, many steps that would have to be made in order to get to an inertial fusion as an energy source.”
That’s partly because National Ignition Facility, where the demonstration took place, is 20 years old, and was constructed using technological components made in the 1980s and 1990s. Laser technology has progressed significantly since then.
The reason for the celebration was simply that energy was created at all.
“It’s exciting because it proves that fusion can work, and it opens the floodgates to further interest, investment, and innovation toward turning fusion into a power source,” said Arthur Turrell, a plasma physicist and the author of The Star Builders.
(L-R) US Under Secretary of Energy for Nuclear Security, Jill Hruby; US Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholm; Director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Kimberly Budil; White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director, Arati Prabhakar; and National Nuclear Security Administration Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs, Marvin Adams hold a press conference to announce a major milestone in nuclear fusion research, at the US Department of Energy in Washington, DC on December 13, 2022. Researchers have achieved a breakthrough regarding nuclear fusion, a technology seen as a possible revolutionary alternative power source.
Olivier Douliery | Afp | Getty Images
The industry will need a whole lot more firsts
Progress is happening fast, but the scope of the problem is immense.
A little more than a year ago, in August 2021, the same laboratory had another breakthrough that Hurricane billed as “a Wright Brothers moment.” That experiment achieved fusion ignition in a controlled environment for the first time, but the total energy that was put into the reaction was less than what came out.
“A plasma is said to ignite when the energy gain due to fusion reactions exceeds all energy losses, resulting in a rapid escalation of temperature, pressure, and fusion energy yield. Previously this had only been achieved in the detonation of nuclear weapons,” explained Pravesh Patel, the scientific director of the fusion startup Focused Energy and a former scientist at Lawrence Livermore.
In that 2021 experiment, the energy gain was 0.73. The Dec. 5 experiment was the first time an energy gain over 1.0 was achieved — specifically, an energy gain of 1.5.
“Getting anything above 1x is everything psychologically because it shows fusion can be a (net) source of energy!” Turrell told CNBC. “To put it another way, it is this moment when >1x is achieved that will make it into the history books.”
An artists’ rendering of the 192 laser beams shooting to the center of the target chamber at the National Ignition Facility.
Courtesy Damien Jemison at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Patel expects to see energy gain of 4 or 5 coming out of the team at Lawrence Livermore eventually. But to make commercial fusion with lasers will require an energy gain of approximately 100x, Patel said.
To get to that level will require new facilities and new technology developments of component parts, such as efficient diode-pumped lasers.
“That will need progress in so-called ‘advanced concepts’ such as fast ignition or shock ignition, that are designed for high gain. Those concepts require new facilities to be built, so a breakthrough there will take until later this decade,” Patel said.
Moritz von der Linden, CEO of startup Marvel Fusion, also emphasized the importance of new lasers.
“Newest generation laser systems at other or new facilities must show that they can easily fire 10 laser pulses per second with high energies. Also, the targets must have an efficient energy absorption rate and be mass producible,” Linden told CNBC in a statement. “Only with optimized targets and latest-generation laser systems is it possible to show a net energy gain — the next truly revolutionary milestone. That will be one of the toughest engineering challenges imaginable to mankind.”
Here, the preamplifier module increases the laser energy as it heads toward the target chamber at the National Ignition Facitility.
Photo courtesy Damien Jemison at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Funding will have to increase dramatically
While it will be more than a decade until fusion is commercialized, investors are already pouring money into the sector: The private fusion industry has seen almost $5 billion in investment, according to the industry trade group, the Fusion Industry Association, and more than half of that has been since since the second quarter of 2021.
Most of that investment gone toward a different approach called magnetic fusion, which uses a donut-shaped device called a tokamak. Only about $180 million has gone into inertial fusion, the approach that typically uses lasers, according to Fusion Industry Association CEO Andrew Holland.
Regardless of the approach, Tuesday’s announcement is significant for the industry as a whole, according to Dennis Whyte, who works at MIT and cofounded Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS), a leading startup working with tokamak-based fusion that’s raised more than $2 billion.
“While the technology readiness of tokamaks is higher for energy systems, the breakthrough announced yesterday was a scientific one confirming that net energy can be produced by the fusion fuels,” Whyte told CNBC. “So this is an important result for all fusion endeavors.”
That funding is a critical step for fusion to be commercial by the late 2030s, where most fusion industry watchers are aiming, Patel told CNBC, but it is not enough. There needs to be between 10 and 100 times as much investment to “meaningfully accelerate the time it will take to commercialize fusion and reduce our dependency on fossil fuels,” Patel told CNBC.
Perhaps the greatest criticism of fusion is that it will take too long to come online to behelpful in responding to climate change.
But industry participants believe that bold action can succeed in time.
“In March, the White House agreed and launched a program to work together with the private sector to shoot for a ‘pilot plant’ with a bold decadal plan,” Whyte told CNBC. “Why this timeline? Well if you work backwards from 2050, the math tells you when you need the pilot plant if you want fusion to play a role in combatting climate change, based on the scale-up times that will be required. This will be hard, but worthwhile to attempt.”
Oil prices edged down on Tuesday after surging nearly 2% in the previous session, as traders kept a close watch on developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Anton Petrus | Moment | Getty Images
Oil prices gained ground on Tuesday, as Ukraine war escalations raised questions over the resilience of Russian supplies, while uncertainty lingers over the impact of Washington’s policies on key oil consumers.
Brent futures with November expiry were at $69.46 per barrel at 10:54 a.m. London time ( 5:54 a.m. E.T.), up 1.92% from the Monday close.
The front-month October Nymex WTI contract was trading at $65.97 per barrel, higher by 3.06%. WTI futures did not settle on Monday because of the U.S. Labor holiday.
Russia supply
Moscow and Kyiv have ramped up fire exchanges in their three-and-a-half-year conflict, with Reuters calculations pointing to Ukrainian drone attacks shutting down facilities accounting for at least 17% of Russia’s oil processing capacity. CNBC could not independently verify the report.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed “new deep strikes” against Russia in a social media post over the weekend, without disclosing details. His pledge comes amid stalling U.S. and European efforts to draw Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin into conceding to bilateral ceasefire talks with his Ukrainian counterpart.
The White House has separately piled on indirect pressure on Russia’s oil consumers, implementing additional levies on imports of Indian goods it attributed to New Delhi’s ongoing purchases of Moscow’s crude. India has criticized the impositions as “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable.”
In a further sign of deteriorating relations, U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday doubled down on lambasting Washington’s trade ties with India as a “totally one sided disaster.”
Critically, Washington has yet to move against China, the world’s largest crude importer and Russia’s biggest oil buyer since the introduction of G7 sanctions. Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met at this week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, in a show of Global South unity.
OPEC+
Also on the supply side, oil investors are looking out for output policy signals from an eight-member subset of the OPEC+ alliance – comprising heavyweights Russia and Saudi Arabia, alongside Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates – which are due to deliberate potential production steps on Sept. 7. The group, which recently expedited unwinding a 2.2-million-barrels-per-day production cut, is widely seen as unlikely to change course on strategy this week.
“We believe, just like the broader market, that the group will leave production levels unchanged for October,” ING analysts said Tuesday. “The scale of the surplus through next year means it’s unlikely the group will bring additional supply onto the market. The bigger risk is OPEC+ deciding to reinstate supply cuts, given concerns about a surplus.”
U.S. rates
Market participants are likewise following this week’s release of the U.S. August job report, expected to be factored into the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting of Sept. 16-17. The Fed is currently widely expected to lower interest rates at the time, in a move that could echo into a softer greenback and push up demand for U.S.-denominated commodities, such as oil.
BMW Motorrad just dropped a futuristic electric motorcycle concept that looks like it rolled straight out of a sci-fi movie and into a design studio. The new concept, called the BMW Motorrad Vision CE, is the company’s latest attempt to answer a question that’s been bouncing around for a while now: What should an electric BMW motorcycle actually look like?
Apparently, the answer is: not like anything else on the road.
Where traditional cruisers are low-slung and heavy with chrome, BMW’s new electric concept is lean, sharp, and unapologetically modern. The design team says it blends “emotional tech” with urban performance, which sounds like marketing fluff to me. But what we’re really looking at here is a sleek mashup of café racer attitude, cyberpunk energy, and hidden electric performance.
A structural canopy and a four-point harness work together to provide enclosed protection, meaning riders won’t necessarily need a helmet like on a traditional motorcycle – though eye protection is still a must.
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The CE 04-based concept bike still keeps some familiar lines, like a long, low silhouette and exposed mechanical elements, but everything else is turned up to eleven. LED lighting slashes through the front end. A massive disc-style rim dominates the rear. The bodywork floats above the drivetrain. And the whole bike looks like it could transform into a drone if you pressed the right button.
Under the hood – well, under the body panels – BMW hasn’t revealed exact specs yet, but the CE-04 platform this is based on was already pushing 31 kW (42 hp) and a top speed of 120 km/h (75 mph), making it ideal for urban riding and modest highway hops.
BMW says the Motorrad Vision CE is more than just a design exercise. It’s a glimpse at how the brand plans to evolve its iconic Motorrad DNA into the electric age. And while the bike is just a concept for now, it wouldn’t be the first time BMW took something wild off the show stand and eventually turned it into a production machine. (Remember the original CE 04 concept? Yeah, that’s a real bike you can overpay for and ride right now.) And of course, how could we not mention the original BMW C1 that adopted a similar helmet-free semi-enclosed cage design 25 years ago?
BMW has already made it clear that it sees electric mobility as the future of urban riding, and with the CE lineup forming the core of that push, we might not have to wait too long to see something like this actually hit the streets.
So if you’ve been waiting for a proper electric motorcycle that doesn’t just replace the engine but reimagines the whole experience to feel less biker-like, BMW’s latest concept might just be a glimpse at what’s coming next, reimagining the past with a focus on the future.
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Stark Future, the Spanish electric motorcycle maker that turned the off-road world on its head, just locked in a fresh round of funding, pushing its total capital raised past €100 million. And unlike the big, flashy VC rounds we usually see, this one came mostly from existing backers and a few hand-picked newcomers, including some heavy hitters from the MotoGP world.
In what has become classic Stark style, the round was closed quickly and quietly, underscoring just how confident investors are in the brand’s growth trajectory. CEO and founder Anton Wass says the company intentionally offered a “very attractive valuation” to those who already believed in the mission.
“We managed to close it within a couple of weeks,” said Wass. “It’s a strong testament to the results our team has created.”
And it’s not just hype. Stark has proven it can build bikes that not only compete with gas-powered motocross machines, but completely outclass them. Their flagship model, the all-electric Stark VARG, claims the title of most powerful motocross bike ever made. Riders have already racked up tens of millions of kilometers on the VARG, and the bike has helped convert thousands of motocross enthusiasts to battery power. The model even got e-motos banned from the X-Games when the organizers feared that gas-powered bikes couldn’t keep up.
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That kind of traction, paired with the company’s rapid expansion into over 70 countries, explains why investors are still lining up to get a piece of the action.
But what really makes Stark stand out in the electric motorcycle world is its quick path to profitability. That’s a rare word in the electric motorcycle space, especially for such a young company. Just two years after their first deliveries, and within six years of founding, Stark Future is profitable and thriving. With each passing year, they seem to be improving margins, growing revenues, and launching new platforms.
And speaking of new platforms, those are coming, too. The company teased “very exciting new products” on the way, though didn’t drop specifics just yet. From the rumor mill though, it sounds like the company is preparing street models that could give gas bikes a run for their money. And if they’re anything like the VARG, we can certainly expect bikes that push boundaries and continue proving Wass’s bold thesis: electric motorcycles can outperform internal combustion in just about every way.
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