Ukraine ‘preparing’ for Russia to invade from north, top commander says

Published

3 years ago

December 16, 2022

admin

Ukraine is preparing for Russia to try again to invade from the north – maybe around the anniversary of its first, failed attempt to seize Kyiv last February, a top commander has said.

President Vladimir Putin could even ultimately order millions of soldiers into the war as Russia’s offensive falters in the face of fierce and enduring Ukrainian resistance, Major General Andrii Kovalchuk, one of Ukraine’s most senior military officers, said in an interview.

He said the Ukrainian armed forces would be ready, even to combat millions of Russians, but they would need ever more lethal support from Western allies, including potentially cluster munitions – a type of weapon that many countries, including the UK, have banned.

‘One of the most intense attacks so far’ – Ukraine war live updates

Major General Kovalchuk, 48, a key architect of a major counter-offensive in the south of the country, told Sky News that Ukraine would win the war – retaking all of its territory including the Crimean Peninsula.

But the decorated and highly-experienced officer warned that the fiercest fighting might yet be to come.

The comments came in a wide-ranging interview in which Major General Kovalchuk offered his thoughts on the operation over the summer and autumn that recaptured swathes of territory in southern Ukraine, culminating in the liberation of the city of Kherson, the only regional capital to have been captured by Russia since the full-scale invasion.

His most notable remarks, however, were about the potential for Russia to expand its attack.

‘We live with the thought that they will attack again’

Asked whether Russian forces will again try to invade Ukraine from the north, the east and the south, maybe even on 24 February, the anniversary of the start of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion last year, the commander said: “Yes, we foresee such options, such scenarios. We are preparing for it. We live with the thought that they will attack again. This is our task.”

He appeared particularly focused on the possibility of Russian troops again invading via Belarus on Ukraine’s northern border – the route to target the capital.

“We are considering a possible offensive from Belarus at the end of February, maybe later,” Major General Kovalchuk said, speaking at an undisclosed location in southern Ukraine.

“We are preparing for it. We are investigating. We look at where they accumulate strength and means. We are preparing.”

Russia’s first attempt to conquer Kyiv from the north ended in humiliating failure.

Ukraine’s more-motivated forces, backed with an initially limited flow of Western weapons, managed to beat back the poorly prepared and badly equipped invading troops within a matter of weeks.

‘We have to be ready’ if Putin orders full mobilisation

If Putin tried a second time, drawing on the remainder of some 300,000 troops he mobilised over the summer, Ukraine would be better prepared to fend them off, the general warned.

“We mined individual areas, and prepared reliable defences in certain areas,” he said.

“It will no longer be the case that they [the Russians] will simply walk in, as was the case on 24 February (2022).”

The frank-talking commander – well-liked and highly regarded among his troops and peers – also raised the prospect of the Russian president ordering a full mobilisation in Russia as the war drags on, generating potentially millions of men to send into the fight.

Asked if he was expecting the mobilisation of millions, Major General Kovalchuk said: “I think Putin is thinking about it. And we cannot rule out such an option. We have to be ready for it.”

As to whether Ukraine would be able to cope with such a large invading force, he said: “Definitely yes. I believe that our position and the position of our partners today should be clear. If Putin carries out a full mobilisation, our partners are ready to provide us with all the force and means to stop not an army of 300,000, but an army of a million.”

Ukraine ‘needs more weapons’

He signalled that Western weapons would need to become even more deadly to respond to such an expansion.

“We need more collective weapons – not an assault rifle, but a machine gun; not a projectile, but a cluster munition. There is a corresponding counteraction to the enemy’s actions. We are sure that our partners will help us in this matter – those who want [us] to win. Because it is not only Ukraine winning today, but the entire civilized world. And we must win.”

The UK is one of more than 100 countries signed up to an international treaty that bans the use of cluster bombs. Dozens of nations are not yet signatories, including the United States.

In the immediate term, the general said Ukraine needs weapons from Western allies that are intended for offensive operations.

“We need both tanks and planes. We also need a reliable air defence system that is at least 95% effective.”

The commander spoke of his forces’ operation to recapture swathes of occupied territory on the Western side of the Dnipro River in the south, including the regional capital of Kherson on 11 November.

He said the ultimate goal had been to destroy all Russian soldiers on the west bank of the river. However, timing pressures and shortfalls in ammunition meant ultimately the Russians were able to retreat.

‘We will return every square centimetre of our territory’

The general said it meant the counter-offensive had been only 50 to 60% successful, noting that these Russian troops had since moved to fight Ukrainian positions in the east and were also still able to launch artillery strikes onto the Western side of the river.

As for Ukraine’s next targets, the senior commander was tight-lipped – for now.

“Someday I will definitely write a memoir,” he said. “I will tell the truth about what happened. “Today I can’t say too much so as not to spoil the future.”

The plans, though, do include retaking Crimea.

“Crimea is a must – it is only a matter of time,” the general said, sitting in front of a line of flags representing different regions in the south of Ukraine, including the peninsula.

“This flag doesn’t just hang there,” he said.

“We will return every square centimetre of our territory.”

He would not be drawn of a timeline for victory, other than to say he hoped it would be soon.

“I would like to solve all the issues this year. But I believe that next year we will bring everything to a logical conclusion.”

World

Why hastily declared ceasefires tend to be fragile

Published

5 hours ago

June 24, 2025

admin

Why hastily declared ceasefires tend to be fragile

Ceasefires that are suddenly declared tend to be pretty fragile.

Stable ceasefires usually require a lot of preparation so that everyone on both sides knows what is supposed to happen, and – more importantly – when.

And they normally agree on how it will be monitored so one side cannot seize a quick advantage by breaking it suddenly.

Israel-Iran live updates: Trump swears live on camera as he rages at Israel and Iran

Without such preparations, and sometimes even with them, ceasefires will tend to be breached – perhaps by accident, perhaps because one side does not exercise full control over its own forces, perhaps as a result of false alarms, or even because a third party – a guerrilla group or a militia, say – choose that moment to launch an attack of their own.

The important question is whether a ceasefire breach is just random and unfortunate, or else deliberate and systemic – where someone is actively trying to break it.

Either way, ceasefires have to be politically reinforced all the time if they are to hold.

All sides may need to rededicate themselves to it at regular intervals, mainly because, as genuine enemies, they won’t trust each other and will remain naturally suspicious at every twitch and utterance from the other side.

This is where an external power like the United States plays a critical part.

If enemies like Israel and Iran naturally distrust each other and need little incentive to “hit back” in some way at every provocation, it will take US pressure to make them abide by a ceasefire that may be breaking down.

Appeals to good nature are hardly relevant in this respect. An external arbiter has to make the continuance of a ceasefire a matter of hard national interest to both sides.

And that often requires as much bullying as persuasion. It may be true that “blessed are the peacemakers”.

World

Five key takeaways from Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s interview with Sky News

Published

5 hours ago

June 24, 2025

admin

Five key takeaways from Volodymyr Zelenskyy's interview with Sky News

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has given a wide-ranging interview to Sky News in which he was asked about the prospect of Russia attacking NATO, whether he would cede land as part of a peace deal and how to force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.

The Ukrainian president spoke to chief presenter Mark Austin.

Here are the five key takeaways from their discussion.

NATO ‘at risk of attack’

Mr Zelenskyy said plans for NATO members to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 are “very slow” and warned Russia could attack a NATO country within five years to test the alliance.

“We believe that, starting from 2030, Putin can have significantly greater capabilities,” he said. “Today, Ukraine is holding him up, he has no time to drill the army.”

But while Mr Zelenskyy conceded his ambition to join NATO “isn’t possible now”, he asserted long term “NATO needs Ukrainians”.

US support ‘may be reduced’

Asked about his views on the Israel-Iran conflict, and the impact of a wider Middle East war on Ukraine, Mr Zelenskyy accepted the “political focus is changing”.

“This means that aid from partners, above all from the United States, may be reduced,” he said.

“He [Putin] will increase strikes against us to use this opportunity, to use the fact that America’s focus is changing over to the Middle East.”

On the subject of Mr Putin’s close relationship with Iran, which has supplied Russia with attack drones, Mr Zelenskyy said: “The Russians will feel the advantage on the battlefield and it will be difficult for us.”

Ukraine war latest: Kyiv launches attacks inside Russia

Trump and Putin ‘will never be friends’

Mr Zelenskyy was sceptical about Mr Putin’s relationship with Donald Trump.

“I truly don’t know what relationship Trump has with Putin… but I am confident that President Trump understands that Ukrainians are allies to America, and the real existential enemy of America is Russia.

“They may be short-term partners, but they will never be friends.”

On his relationship with Mr Trump, Mr Zelenskyy was asked about whether he felt bullied by the US president during their spat in the Oval Office.

👉 Follow Trump100 on your podcast app 👈

“I believe I conducted myself honestly. I really wanted America to be a strong partner… and to be honest, I was counting on that,” he said.

In a sign of potential frustration, the Ukrainian president added: “Indeed, there were things that don’t bring us closer to ending the war. There were some media… standing around us… talking about some small things like my suit. It’s not the main thing.”

Putin and peace talks

Mr Zelenskyy was clear he supported both a ceasefire and peace talks, adding that he would enter negotiations to understand “if real compromises are possible and if there is a real way to end the war”.

But he avoided directly saying whether he would be willing to surrender four annexed regions of Ukraine, as part of any peace deal.

“I don’t believe that he [Putin] is interested in these four regions. He wants to occupy Ukraine. Putin wants more,” he said.

“Putin is counting on a slow occupation of Ukraine, the reduction in European support and America standing back from this war completely… plus the removal of sanctions.

“But I think the strategy should be as follows: Pressure on Putin with political sanctions, with long-range weapons… to force him to the negotiating table.”

Russia ‘using UK tech for missiles’

On Monday, Mr Zelenskyy met Sir Keir Starmer and agreed to share battlefield technology, boosting Ukraine’s drone production, which Mr Zelenskyy described as a “strong step forward”.

But he also spoke about the failure to limit Russia’s access to crucial technology being used in military hardware.

He said “components for missiles and drones” from countries “including the UK” were being used by Russian companies who were not subject to sanctions.

“It is vitally important for us, and we’re handing these lists [of Russian companies] over to our partners and asking them to apply sanctions. Otherwise, the Russians will have missiles,” he added.

World

At least 25 people killed after Israeli forces open fire near aid trucks in Gaza, witnesses say

Published

5 hours ago

June 24, 2025

admin

At least 25 people killed after Israeli forces open fire near aid trucks in Gaza, witnesses say

At least 25 people have been killed after Israeli forces opened fire towards people waiting for aid trucks in Gaza, according to witnesses and hospitals.

The Awda hospital in the Nuseirat refugee camp, which received the victims, said the Palestinians were waiting for the trucks on a road south of Wadi Gaza.

Witnesses told the Associated Press (AP) news agency Israeli forces opened fire as people were advancing to be close to the approaching trucks.

Israel-Iran live updates: Trump tells two sides ‘do not violate’ ceasefire

The Awda hospital said another 146 Palestinians were wounded. Among them were 62 in a critical condition, who were transferred to other hospitals in central Gaza, it added.

In the central town of Deir al-Balah, the Al Aqsa Martyrs hospital said it received the bodies of six people who were killed in the same incident.

“It was a massacre,” one witness, Ahmed Halawa, said.

He said tanks and drones fired at people, “even as we were fleeing – many people were either martyred or wounded”.

Another witness, Hossam Abu Shahada, said drones were flying over the area, watching the crowds. Then there was gunfire from tanks and drones, leaving a “chaotic and bloody” scene as people attempted to escape.

He said he saw at least three people lying on the ground motionless and many others wounded as he fled.

The Israeli military did not immediately comment on the reports.

Philippe Lazzarini, the head of the UN’s Palestinian refugee agency, described the aid delivery mechanism in Gaza as “an abomination that humiliates and degrades desperate people”.

He added: “It is a death trap, costing more lives than it saves.”

A spokesperson for the UN’s Human Rights Office said: “The weaponisation of food for civilians, in addition to restricting or preventing their access to life-sustaining services, constitutes a war crime and, under certain circumstances, may constitute elements of other crimes under international law.”

Around 56,000 Palestinians have been killed during the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry. The ministry says more than half of the dead were women and children, but does not distinguish between civilians and militants in its count.

The war began after Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, when militants stormed across the border and killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took another 251 hostages. Most of the hostages have been released in ceasefire agreements.