Ukraine ‘preparing’ for Russia to invade from north, top commander says
Ukraine is preparing for Russia to try again to invade from the north – maybe around the anniversary of its first, failed attempt to seize Kyiv last February, a top commander has said.
President Vladimir Putin could even ultimately order millions of soldiers into the war as Russia’s offensive falters in the face of fierce and enduring Ukrainian resistance, Major General Andrii Kovalchuk, one of Ukraine’s most senior military officers, said in an interview.
He said the Ukrainian armed forces would be ready, even to combat millions of Russians, but they would need ever more lethal support from Western allies, including potentially cluster munitions – a type of weapon that many countries, including the UK, have banned.
‘One of the most intense attacks so far’ – Ukraine war live updates
Major General Kovalchuk, 48, a key architect of a major counter-offensive in the south of the country, told Sky News that Ukraine would win the war – retaking all of its territory including the Crimean Peninsula.
But the decorated and highly-experienced officer warned that the fiercest fighting might yet be to come.
The comments came in a wide-ranging interview in which Major General Kovalchuk offered his thoughts on the operation over the summer and autumn that recaptured swathes of territory in southern Ukraine, culminating in the liberation of the city of Kherson, the only regional capital to have been captured by Russia since the full-scale invasion.
His most notable remarks, however, were about the potential for Russia to expand its attack.
Major General Andrii Kovalchuk
‘We live with the thought that they will attack again’
Asked whether Russian forces will again try to invade Ukraine from the north, the east and the south, maybe even on 24 February, the anniversary of the start of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion last year, the commander said: “Yes, we foresee such options, such scenarios. We are preparing for it. We live with the thought that they will attack again. This is our task.”
He appeared particularly focused on the possibility of Russian troops again invading via Belarus on Ukraine’s northern border – the route to target the capital.
“We are considering a possible offensive from Belarus at the end of February, maybe later,” Major General Kovalchuk said, speaking at an undisclosed location in southern Ukraine.
“We are preparing for it. We are investigating. We look at where they accumulate strength and means. We are preparing.”
Russia’s first attempt to conquer Kyiv from the north ended in humiliating failure.
Ukraine’s more-motivated forces, backed with an initially limited flow of Western weapons, managed to beat back the poorly prepared and badly equipped invading troops within a matter of weeks.
‘We have to be ready’ if Putin orders full mobilisation
If Putin tried a second time, drawing on the remainder of some 300,000 troops he mobilised over the summer, Ukraine would be better prepared to fend them off, the general warned.
“We mined individual areas, and prepared reliable defences in certain areas,” he said.
“It will no longer be the case that they [the Russians] will simply walk in, as was the case on 24 February (2022).”
The frank-talking commander – well-liked and highly regarded among his troops and peers – also raised the prospect of the Russian president ordering a full mobilisation in Russia as the war drags on, generating potentially millions of men to send into the fight.
Asked if he was expecting the mobilisation of millions, Major General Kovalchuk said: “I think Putin is thinking about it. And we cannot rule out such an option. We have to be ready for it.”
As to whether Ukraine would be able to cope with such a large invading force, he said: “Definitely yes. I believe that our position and the position of our partners today should be clear. If Putin carries out a full mobilisation, our partners are ready to provide us with all the force and means to stop not an army of 300,000, but an army of a million.”
Map of the war on day 296
Ukraine ‘needs more weapons’
He signalled that Western weapons would need to become even more deadly to respond to such an expansion.
“We need more collective weapons – not an assault rifle, but a machine gun; not a projectile, but a cluster munition. There is a corresponding counteraction to the enemy’s actions. We are sure that our partners will help us in this matter – those who want [us] to win. Because it is not only Ukraine winning today, but the entire civilized world. And we must win.”
The UK is one of more than 100 countries signed up to an international treaty that bans the use of cluster bombs. Dozens of nations are not yet signatories, including the United States.
In the immediate term, the general said Ukraine needs weapons from Western allies that are intended for offensive operations.
“We need both tanks and planes. We also need a reliable air defence system that is at least 95% effective.”
The commander spoke of his forces’ operation to recapture swathes of occupied territory on the Western side of the Dnipro River in the south, including the regional capital of Kherson on 11 November.
He said the ultimate goal had been to destroy all Russian soldiers on the west bank of the river. However, timing pressures and shortfalls in ammunition meant ultimately the Russians were able to retreat.
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Russia seeking more missiles
‘We will return every square centimetre of our territory’
The general said it meant the counter-offensive had been only 50 to 60% successful, noting that these Russian troops had since moved to fight Ukrainian positions in the east and were also still able to launch artillery strikes onto the Western side of the river.
As for Ukraine’s next targets, the senior commander was tight-lipped – for now.
“Someday I will definitely write a memoir,” he said. “I will tell the truth about what happened. “Today I can’t say too much so as not to spoil the future.”
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The plans, though, do include retaking Crimea.
“Crimea is a must – it is only a matter of time,” the general said, sitting in front of a line of flags representing different regions in the south of Ukraine, including the peninsula.
“This flag doesn’t just hang there,” he said.
“We will return every square centimetre of our territory.”
He would not be drawn of a timeline for victory, other than to say he hoped it would be soon.
“I would like to solve all the issues this year. But I believe that next year we will bring everything to a logical conclusion.”
World
Asianmarkets bounce back after Trump pauses higher tariffs for most countries – despite increasing those on China to 125%
Asian markets have reacted positively after Donald Trump paused his so-called “reciprocal” tariffs on most of America’s trading partners for 90 days, despite the US president increasing those on China to 125%.
There have been fears of a global recession and stock markets around the world had plummeted after Mr Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on Wednesday 2 April.
However, Japan’s Nikkei share average was up 8.2% by 3.50am BST, while the broader Topix had risen 7.5%.
Similarly, the S&P 500 stock index had jumped 9.5% and global markets bounced back following Mr Trump’s announcement on Wednesday that the increased tariffs on nearly all trading partners would now be paused.
Tariffs latest: Trump gives reasons for pausing some tariffs
In a post on his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump said the “90-day pause” was for the “more than 75 countries” who had not retaliated against his tariffs “in any way”.
He added that during this period they would still have to pay a “substantially lowered” 10% tariff, which is “effective immediately”.
It is lower than the 20% tariff that Mr Trump had set for goods from the European Union, 24% on imports from Japan and 25% on products from South Korea.
The UK was already going to face a blanket 10% tariff under the new system.
Mr Trump said the increased 125% tariff on imported goods from China was “effective immediately”.
He added: “At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realise that the days of ripping off the USA, and other countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable.”
Hours after Mr Trump announced the pause on tariffs for most countries, a White House official clarified that this did not apply to the 25% duties imposed on some US imports from Mexico and Canada.
The tariffs were first announced in February and Mexico and Canada were not included in the “Liberation Day” announcements.
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Donald Trump says China ‘wants to make a deal’
Hours before the 125% tariff on China was revealed, Beijing said it was increasing tariffs on US goods by 50%.
It meant tariffs of 84% would be enforced on US goods – up from the 34% China had previously planned.
Mr Trump spoke to reporters in the Oval Office. Pic: Reuters
China ‘want to make a deal’
Asked why he posted “BE COOL” on Truth Social hours before announcing his tariff pause, Mr Trump told reporters at the White House: “I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line.”
“They were getting yippy, you know, were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid,” he added.
Mr Trump continued: “China wants to make a deal, they just don’t know how to go about it.
“[They’re] quite the proud people, and President Xi is a proud man. I know him very well, and they don’t know quite how to go about it, but they’ll figure it out.
“They’re in the process of figuring out, but they want to make a deal.”
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White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the walk back was part of a grand negotiating strategy by Mr Trump.
“President Trump created maximum negotiating leverage for himself,” she said, adding that the news media “clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here”.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also insisted Mr Trump had strengthened his hand through his tariffs.
“President Trump created maximum negotiating leverage for himself,” he said.
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Mr Bessent said Mr Trump decided to raise tariffs on China because Beijing hadn’t reached out to the US and instead increased its own levies on US goods.
Downing Street said that the UK will “coolly and calmly” continue its negotiations with the US.
A Number 10 spokeswoman said: “A trade war is in nobody’s interests. We don’t want any tariffs at all, so for jobs and livelihoods across the UK, we will coolly and calmly continue to negotiate in Britain’s interests.”
Along the thin strip of beach and woodland known as the Vistula Spit which marks the northernmost demarcation between Poland and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, there is not much in the way of a border.
Just some torn wire fencing and a few rotten posts which seem to stagger drunkenly into the shallows of the Baltic Sea.
Beneath a sign barring entry, we find a couple of empty bottles of Russian cognac and vodka.
It doesn’t feel like the edge of NATO territory.
This doesn’t feel like the edge of NATO territory
“I don’t see much protection. It’s not good,” says Krzysztof from Katowice, who has come to inspect the border himself.
“We have to have some kind of scare tactic, something to show that we are trying to strengthen our army,” says Grzegorz, who lives nearby.
“At the same time I think I would not base the defence of our country solely on our army. I am convinced that Europe or America, if anything were to happen, will help us 100%.”
Poland is investing massively in its defence, with military spending set to hit 4.7% of GDP in 2025, more than any other NATO country.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said he will introduce voluntary military training for men of any age, and women too should they wish, so the army has a competent reserve force in the event of war.
Border between EU and the Russian Federation
He is investing $2.5bn in stronger border fortifications between Russia and Belarus, a project called East Shield which will include anti-tank obstacles, bunkers and potentially minefields too.
Along with its Baltic neighbours, Poland is withdrawing from the Ottawa convention against the use of land mines. It hasn’t committed to using them, but it wants to have that option.
We’ve been granted access to one of the cornerstones of Polish, and European defence, which is a couple of hours drive from the Vistula spit at the Redowicze military base.
Aegis Ashore Poland
Aegis Ashore Poland, together with its sister site in Romania, are the land-based arms of NATO’s missile defence shield over Europe, which is run by the US navy.
They are symbols of the US commitment to NATO and to the protection of Europe.
The control room at Aegis Ashore Poland
And despite changes at the top of the Pentagon it is “business as usual”, says Captain Michael Dwan who oversees air and missile defence within the US Sixth Fleet.
“Our mission to work with NATO forces has been unchanged. And so our commitment from the United States perspective and what capability we bring to ballistic missile defence and the defence of NATO is championed here in Poland.”
The control room at Aegis Ashore Poland
As far as Russia is concerned, NATO’s two missile defence bases in Romania and Poland represent a NATO threat on their doorstep and are therefore a “priority target for potential neutralisation”, per Russia’s foreign ministry.
NATO says the installations are purely defensive and their SM-3 interceptor missiles are not armed and are not intended to carry warheads. Russia counters they could easily be adapted to threaten Russia.
Not the case, Captain Dwan says.
Aegis Ashore Poland
Aegis Ashore Poland
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“It’s not a matter of moving offensive weapons here into the facility, the hardware and the infrastructure is simply not installed.
“It would take months or years to change the mission of this site and a significant amount of money and capability and design.”
With so much marked “secret” on the site, it seems amazing to be granted the access.
But for NATO, transparency is part of deterrence. They want potential adversaries to know how sophisticated their radar and interception systems are.
They know that if they carried warheads on site, that would make them a target so they don’t.
Deterrence also depends on whether potential adversaries believe in the US’s commitment to NATO and to Europe’s defence.
On an operational level, as far as the troops are concerned, that commitment may still be iron-clad.
But as far as its commander-in-chief goes, there is still – as with so much around Donald Trump’s presidency – a great deal of uncertainty.
In the Oval Office on Wednesday afternoon President Trump suggested he might bundle a potential US troop drawdown in Europe together with the issue of EU trade and tariffs.
“Nice to wrap it up in one package,” he said, “it’s nice and clean”.
Probably not the way Europe sees it, not with a resurgent Russia on their doorstep, economic tailwinds breeding animosity and the notion of Pax Americana crumbling at their feet.
The defence secretary will urge “coalition of the willing” nations to increase pressure on Russia to end its war in Ukraine as plans to support peace ramp up.
John Healey and French defence minister Sebastien Lecornu will lead about 30 defence ministers in Brussels on Thursday as they discuss operational plans for a multinational peacekeeping force in Ukraine as part of the “coalition of the willing”.
They will look at each nation’s capabilities and how they could be best used to support Ukraine’s long-term defence and security as part of what the Ministry of Defence called a “reassurance force”.
UK and French military chiefs discussed planning with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his military chiefs in Kyiv last weekend.
Peace negotiations are ongoing between the US and Russia, however, US officials appear to be growing increasingly impatient with the lack of progress after Donald Trump publicly suggested a month ago Vladimir Putin wants to end the war.
Read more: Who’s in and who’s out of the coalition of the willing?
Leaders of nations part of the coalition of the willing at a summit in Paris on 27 March. Pic: AP
Last Tuesday, the Kremlin described the latest US peace proposal as unacceptable in its current form because it does not solve the “root causes” of the conflict.
Mr Putin wants to dismantle Ukraine as an independent, functioning state and has demanded Kyiv recognise Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and other partly occupied areas and pull its forces out, as well as a pledge for Ukraine to never join NATO and to demilitarise.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday Mr Trump is not “going to fall into the trap of endless negotiations” with Moscow.
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Children killed in Russian missile strike
Despite the apparent impasse in talks, the coalition of the willing – which does not include the US – is continuing with its plans for when peace is agreed.
Mr Healey is expected to tell his fellow defence ministers: “We cannot jeopardise the peace by forgetting about the war, so we must put even more pressure on Putin and step up our support for Ukraine – both in today’s fight and the push for peace.
“Our commitment is to put Ukraine in the strongest position to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty and deter future Russian aggression.”
On Friday, the defence secretary and his German counterpart, Boris Pistorius, will chair the 27th meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group at NATO’s headquarters in Brussels.
The group is an alliance of about 50 countries – all 32 NATO member states, including the US, and about 20 other countries – that has been supporting Ukraine by sending military equipment since Russia invaded in April 2022.
A Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting – including the US defence secretary – in March. Pic: AP
Mr Healey and Mr Pistorius will “drive forward additional military support” as Russia continues to attack Ukraine.
The latest development in the war has seen Mr Zelenskyy say Ukraine has intelligence there are at least 155 Chinese citizens fighting for the Russian military.
On Tuesday, Mr Zelenskyy released a video of a Chinese soldier taken by Ukrainian forces, with another captured by Ukrainian forces, he said.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian denied claims there were “many more” Chinese citizens fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine.
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