It seems like only yesterday that Florida State was running circles around Alabama, LSU was scoring a statement win over Clemson, Miami was defeating Notre Dame in a game with potential playoff stakes, and James Franklin and Brian Kelly were coaching top-10 teams.

College football has the shortest regular season around but remains capable of endless plot twists. A mere 13 weeks from Week 1, Florida State and Penn State are 5-6, Clemson is 6-5, Kelly is out of a job, Franklin has found a new one and, because of another couple of late-game failures, Miami is again just on the outside of the College Football Playoff looking in (while Notre Dame is again safe).

Now we get to find out how the story ends. Who will survive the intricate web of tiebreakers to reach conference title games? What surprises might fierce rivalry games provide? And most importantly, how much small-school playoff football do you plan on watching?

It’s time to feast on Thanksgiving and on football. It’s Rivalry Week! Here’s everything you need to follow.

Two huge rivalry games starring favorites as spoilers

Rivalry Week’s superpower is its depth. Everywhere you look — from the Egg Bowl to the Territorial Cup to the Battle on the Bayou (Louisiana-ULM) to the Battle for the Fremont Cannon (Nevada-UNLV) — you’ll find games that will define fans’ outlooks for an entire offseason.

It’s nice to have some bell-cow games, though. And two of the sport’s loudest rivalries have major stakes this year.

No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan (Saturday, noon, Fox)

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Ohio State hasn’t beaten Michigan in a while. Since the start of 2021, the Buckeyes are 0-4 in The Game and 58-4 in all others. They went through a full-on existential crisis after last year’s loss, then rallied to whomp four straight opponents and win the national title.

On Saturday, the Buckeyes will try out a new role for a new era: unbeaten spoiler. They’re safely in the CFP no matter what, though they could still lose their spot in the Big Ten championship game. (I guess that would be a bad thing?) But with a win, they could ensure that Michigan is out of the CFP running. That’s probably enough motivation.

Last week, Michigan provided a complete performance with a 45-20 win over Maryland. Reserve running backs Bryson Kuzdzal and Tomas O’Meara, in because of injuries, rushed for a combined 171 yards, and the defense allowed touchdowns on only the Terps’ first and last drives. Bryce Underwood ranks 12th in QBR in November, and the Wolverines are 10th in defensive SP+.

Ohio State has been so ruthlessly automatic that we still don’t know everything we need to know about quarterback Julian Sayin. Even with star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate battling injuries of late, Sayin has completed 79% of his passes with 27 TDs to four interceptions, but he has also thrown just 25 fourth-quarter passes. How will he perform when facing constant pressure? We don’t know. (Of course, Penn State got in his face a lot and he went 20-for-23.) Can he lead a late, do-or-die drive? We don’t know. (Granted, he’s 15-for-18 for 223 yards when trailing.)

Smith appears likely to play Saturday, but Tate’s status remains uncertain. This might be the stiffest defensive test Sayin has faced, but it’s definitely the stiffest Underwood has faced, and he doesn’t have the healthiest skill corps either. The pressure is all on Michigan for a change.

Current line: Buckeyes -11.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 14.6 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 8.5

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 16 Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)

For 15 years, Texas A&M (which beat Texas 24-17 in 2010) has been able to say it won its last trip to Austin. If the Aggies can still say that Saturday morning, they’ll have wrapped up their first unbeaten regular season since 1939, clinched their first SEC championship game appearance and officially knocked Texas out of CFP contention.

Texas just hasn’t looked the part for much of 2025. Projected fifth in SP+, the Longhorns are currently 23rd with a defense that has allowed more than 30 points for four straight games and an offense that only recently began carrying its weight. Of course, Arch Manning ranks ninth in QBR in November, and while he has derived loads of success from short, easy passes, the offense is indeed clicking even if the defense isn’t.

Two weeks ago against South Carolina, A&M’s Marcel Reed put together just about the worst first half (6-for-19 with two interceptions and two sacks) and best second half (16-for-20 for 298 yards and three TDs) of his life. You can’t ever say A&M is out of a game if Reed is around to dig the Aggies out of a hole, but he also might be part of the reason they’re in the hole to begin with.

Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.3 | FPI projection: Texas by 0.3

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Which contender falls on the road?

Of the 11 teams ranked from fourth to 14th in the CFP rankings, nine play on the road this weekend. A few could survive a loss with a CFP bid intact, but with so many similar teams packed together, you don’t really want to find out if you’re on the “could survive” list.

Based on SP+ win probabilities, there’s only about a 7% chance that these nine teams all win and there is a 37% chance that at least three lose. Chaos looms. Let’s talk about each of the nine games, going from the most likely to the least likely defeats for the contenders.

No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 19 Tennessee (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)

Tennessee and Vanderbilt have had basically the same season: They’re a combined 0-4 against teams in the SP+ top 12 (UT 0-3, VU 0-1) and 17-1 against everyone else (UT 8-0, VU 9-1). They have the same general strengths (ruthlessly efficient offenses) and weaknesses (defenses that show up only occasionally). Vols fans are probably annoyed that their team is out of the playoff running because their schedule was slightly harder, but they can exact some level of vengeance with a win Saturday.

My Heisman points race totals suggest Diego Pavia‘s odds should be better than they are. He’ll have to torch Tennessee’s (occasionally torchable) defense to make a good final impression. But Joey Aguilar is capable of doing the same. Both are in the best quadrant of this chart:

Both defenses played well last week against limited opponents, but the offenses have the advantage here.

Current line: Vols -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 0.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 2.0

No. 12 Miami at No. 22 Pitt (Saturday, noon, ABC)

Since walloping a good USF team in Week 3, Miami has played three SP+ top-40 teams — Florida State, Louisville and SMU — and lost to two. The defense has been consistently strong; the Canes are seventh in points allowed per drive, and they could give Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel hell if the Panthers’ run game isn’t sharp enough. But the Miami offense has been dragged down at times by a lack of explosiveness and forced to score via long drives with lots of snaps.

That makes Pitt a fascinating matchup: The Panthers come at you, risking explosive plays in exchange for three-and-outs. Miami receivers Malachi Toney, Keelan Marion and CJ Daniels have had their game-breaking moments, but they’re averaging just 12.2 yards per catch altogether. If they don’t find and exploit open spaces, an upset looms.

Current line: Miami -6.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 6.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 5.2

No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)

In the past three seasons, Auburn has played 14 ranked opponents; the Tigers have gone 1-13 but with nine one-score defeats. When you come so consistently close, you’re always a threat.

Auburn’s defense is elite against the run, but Alabama has all but given up on the ground game. The Tide choose instead to put everything on quarterback Ty Simpson‘s shoulders, and despite a solid pass rush Auburn ranks 93rd in yards allowed per dropback. That’s a problem, but the Tigers could make things confusing on offense. Both Ashton Daniels (against Vandy) and Deuce Knight (against Mercer) have enjoyed fantastic performances since Hugh Freeze’s firing, and there isn’t a ton of tape on either of them. If Auburn keeps this one uncomfortably close — or pulls off a terribly damaging upset — the element of surprise could be a major reason.

Current line: Bama -5.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 6.0 | FPI projection: Bama by 6.5

No. 6 Oregon at Washington (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)

Oregon might not need a win in Seattle to secure a playoff bid, but if other favorites win and it doesn’t, things could get tense.

Washington’s run defense is stout enough to push the Ducks off schedule and force quarterback Dante Moore to hit big third-and-long throws that he hasn’t always made this season. But this game will likely come down to quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and the Washington offense. They’ve dominated all but the most elite defenses.

Washington vs. two top-10 defenses (per SP+): 6.5 points per game, 4.5 yards per play

Washington vs. everyone else: 42.0 points per game, 7.0 yards per play

Unfortunately for the Huskies, Oregon ranks fifth in defensive SP+. If Williams gets going, Washington can beat anyone. But it would be the first time he has done so against a defense this good.

Current line: Ducks -6.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 6.7 | FPI projection: Ducks by 7.1

No. 4 Georgia at No. 23 Georgia Tech (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)

November has been a nightmare for Georgia Tech. After an 8-0 start, the Yellow Jackets have lost two of three, their defense giving up 41.3 points per game. Last week’s loss to Pitt removed a lot of stakes from this game. Luckily, coach Brent Key, a former Tech lineman, has enough hatred for Georgia to keep the stakes as high as possible.

If you can’t stop Georgia’s run game, the Dawgs will just keep at it, and that might be all that matters in this one. But Tech’s offense remains excellent. Haynes King has thrown for at least 300 yards in three of his past four games, and he has rushed for more than 85 non-sack yards seven times in 2025. King almost willed the Jackets to victory over UGA last season but fell just short. He’ll try again in his last Tech home game (although this one will be at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and not Bobby Dodd).

Current line: UGA -13.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 12.9 | FPI projection: UGA by 13.8

No. 7 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Friday, noon, ABC)

First things first: Yes, the current college football calendar stinks, and it was always conceivable that a coach would get wooed by blue-blood schools amid a playoff push. But as others have noted, this isn’t happening to Lane Kiffin. It’s happening to Ole Miss because Kiffin is actually thinking about leaving. There are plenty of legitimate reasons to weigh a blue-blood move — tradition, recruiting bases, an epic and ridiculous salary offer — but this is still his own doing.

Ole Miss is much better than MSU. The Rebels combine a steady run game with high tempo and high-ceiling passing. The defense has been mediocre against the run but strong against the pass. That pairs well against a Bulldogs team that makes big plays here and there but goes three-and-out too often and can’t stop even an average run game. With no distractions or rivalry weirdness, Ole Miss cruises. But, wow, is it difficult to assume no distractions or rivalry weirdness.

Current line: Rebels -7.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 14.3 | FPI projection: Rebels by 8.5

No. 13 Utah at Kansas (Friday, noon, ESPN)

Utah’s defense has allowed 75 points in the past two weeks, and star defensive end John Henry Daley is likely out for the season with a leg injury. But Kansas has lost four of five since a 4-2 start. The Jayhawks’ offense has underachieved against projections in every game since September, and Utah has scored at least 45 points in six of seven games. The Utes dodged a bullet with last week’s comeback win over Kansas State, and maybe the defense can’t right the ship. But signs still point to them reaching 10-2.

Current line: Utah -13.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 15.1 | FPI projection: Utah by 11.0

No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia (Saturday, noon, ESPN)

Over the past four weeks, WVU’s defense has made the most tackles for loss in the Big 12, while new quarterback Scotty Fox Jr. has become a more and more explosive passer. The Mountaineers have won two of three since a 2-6 start. Will any of this matter against Texas Tech? Probably not. The Red Raiders are on a different plane of existence in the trenches, and they’ve won four games by an average of 41-9 since quarterback Behren Morton returned from injury.

Current line: Tech -20.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 31.5 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.5

No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford (Saturday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN)

A game with CFP stakes will end at around 2 a.m. ET Sunday. Convenient. There shouldn’t be much drama, though. Notre Dame has won its past three games by an average of 52-11, and while Stanford has improved of late and scored a rousing rivalry win over Cal last week, its offense is still destitute. It will take epic rivalry magic for this to remain close past midnight.

Current line: Irish -32.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 31.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 24.9

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Does the ACC have another round of surprises?

Back in the 2010s, the ACC Coastal division was the shining light for either parity or slapstick. All seven of its members won the division title once from 2013 to 2019, and all seven proceeded to lose the ACC championship game. (That’s why we got rid of divisions — they were usually terribly unequal.)

The spirit of the Coastal lives. It’s in the walls; there’s no getting it out. Starting with Clemson in the preseason, the conference favorite per SP+ has changed, wait for it, seven times this year and has done so for each of the past four weeks. Odds suggest we’ll probably get an SMU-Virginia title game next week, but since when do odds matter in this league? Four other teams have at least a slight chance at taking advantage if (when?) the Mustangs or Cavaliers slip up, including whoever wins Miami-Pitt (listed above).

No. 21 SMU at California (Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN2)

SMU began the season 2-2, falling out of the SP+ top 50 from a starting point of 19th. Since October began, however, the Mustangs have gone 6-1 and surged all the way back to 24th. The defense rounded into form first, then the offense followed. The Mustangs still can’t run as well as expected, but quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 994 yards and seven touchdowns in three November games.

Now comes an odd test: Cal just fired Justin Wilcox after his Golden Bears followed an upset of Louisville with a catastrophic, error-strewn loss to Stanford. Interim coaches have done well this season, and Cal can combine solid pass defense with an occasionally productive Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele-to-Jacob De Jesus pass combo. But this game will probably come down to SMU: If the Mustangs keep hitting the notes they’ve been hitting, they’ll head back to Charlotte in a week and a half.

Current line: SMU -10.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 16.5 | FPI projection: SMU by 12.8

Virginia Tech at No. 18 Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN)

In the past 45 years, Virginia has been a double-digit favorite against rival Virginia Tech just once, in 1985. The Cavaliers lost 28-10. In fact, they’ve been favored over Tech 14 times in that span and have gone just 7-7 in those games. In terms of general rivalry nonsense, that’s delightful. But surely they can’t lose this one, right? Tech has lost five of six, Virginia has won eight of nine, and a win would take the Hoos to Charlotte for just the second time. Surely not, right?

To the Hokies’ credit, they haven’t stopped fighting. They made Louisville and Miami sweat for a while, but they just haven’t had the horses, especially on defense. Tech’s run game could test UVA, but even against an inconsistent Cavaliers offense, the Hokies will still have to make stops, and that has been a major issue.

Current line: UVA -11.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 22.2 | FPI projection: UVA by 9.5

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Down to the wire in the Group of 5

After weeks of turnover atop the Group of 5 hierarchy, last Saturday was actually stable, with the three current favorites (Tulane, North Texas and James Madison) all winning. If that continues — and SP+ suggests there’s only about a 15% chance one of them loses this week — we know where things stand: Tulane and North Texas will face off for the American title while JMU will hope to score style points against either Southern Miss or Troy in the Sun Belt championship game.

Temple at North Texas (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)

North Texas is essentially the mid-major USC: The Mean Green have a relentless passing game, a good run game, a solid pass defense and a very worrisome run defense. Earlier in the season, that might have been something Temple could take advantage of, but in November the Owls are averaging just 85 non-sack rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. If you can’t punish the Mean Green between the tackles, they will overwhelm you with points.

Current line: UNT -19.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 24.0 | FPI projection: UNT by 17.7

James Madison at Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3:45 p.m., ESPNU)

Despite a recent two-game skid, Coastal has scored 40-plus in four straight Sun Belt games thanks to big rushes from quarterback Samari Collier and an increase in aggressive downfield completions. Nothing really worked in a blowout loss to South Carolina last week — and honestly, on paper JMU’s defense might be better than South Carolina’s — but the Chanticleers’ big-play hunting makes them an intriguing candidate to pull an upset (or get totally thumped).

Current line: JMU -21.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 21.6 | FPI projection: JMU by 17.8

Charlotte at No. 24 Tulane (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU)

Tim Albin left an established culture at Ohio to build a new one at Charlotte. It might take a little while. His 49ers are 0-10 against FBS competition, and they haven’t lost by fewer than 17 since September. They might test Tulane with some vertical passing, but with the Green Wave playing a pretty good bend-don’t-break routine of late, I doubt it works. And every other matchup drastically favors Jake Retzlaff and the Wave.

Current line: Tulane -29.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 33.8 | FPI projection: Tulane by 28.2

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Week 14 chaos superfecta

We’re again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to Utah’s late comeback against Kansas State, we missed out last week and fell to 6-7 for the season. It’s time to claw back to .500!

SP+ says there’s only a 47% chance that Ole Miss (82% win probability against Mississippi State), Ohio State (82% against Michigan), Louisiana (84% against ULM) and UNLV (84% against Nevada) all win. Let’s take down a favored rival!

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Week 14 playlist

From Thursday night to Saturday night, here are more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Thursday

Navy at Memphis (7:30 p.m., ESPN). If either American favorite slips up, Navy could be ready to grab a conference title game bid with a track-meet win Thanksgiving night. The Midshipmen have given up more than 30 points in six straight games, and Memphis has done so in four of five. May we be blessed with a repeat of last season’s 100-point, 1,225-yard feast.

Current line: Memphis -5.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.5 | FPI projection: Memphis by 9.9

Early Friday

Iowa at Nebraska (noon, CBS). Both of these teams were hoping for better than 7-4 records this season, and Iowa in particular was painfully close to something far greater. Regardless, this has become a must-watch game: The past seven matchups have been decided by one score. Iowa has been the better team in 2025, but the Hawkeyes are only 2-4 in one-score finishes. Nebraska is 4-2.

Current line: Iowa -5.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 4.1 | FPI projection: Iowa by 2.3

Friday afternoon

San Diego State at New Mexico (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). If SDSU wins, the Aztecs are assured of a spot in the Mountain West title game, and we potentially avoid tiebreaker hell. But New Mexico, now 70th in SP+ — the last time the Lobos finished in the top 70 was 2007 — has an efficient passing game, a quickly improving defense and could make the race awfully messy with a home upset.

Current line: SDSU -1.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 4.7 | FPI projection: SDSU by 0.5

Friday evening

No. 2 Indiana at Purdue (7:30 p.m., NBC). After nine games of mostly comprehensive brilliance, Indiana has underachieved against SP+ projections by 9.8 points per game over its past two. Did the Hoosiers peak early? Did they just get bored? Will that matter against a fading Purdue team that has lost its past two games by a combined 83-23? Surely the Spoilermakers couldn’t spoil the Hoosiers’ party, right?

Current line: IU -28.5 | SP+ projection: IU by 33.9 | FPI projection: IU by 28.6

Late Friday

No. 25 Arizona at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). If Kansas upsets Utah earlier Friday, a win would keep ASU’s Big 12 title hopes alive. But Arizona has won four straight and has risen to 25th in SP+. ASU could exploit a suspect Wildcats run defense with Raleek Brown and quarterback Jeff Sims, but the Sun Devils must avoid passing downs and make some stops against an improving Arizona offense.

Current line: Arizona -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 4.0 | FPI projection: ASU by 0.4

Early Saturday

UCF at No. 11 BYU (1 p.m., ESPN2). Two years ago, 5-6 BYU nearly wrecked Oklahoma State’s Big 12 championship plans in Stillwater, bolting to an 18-point lead but falling in double overtime. (That’s right, kids, OSU was once good at football! Way back in 2023!) Now comes a reversal. The Cougars are one win away from the title game but must fend off a 5-6 UCF team with speed and no semblance of consistency.

Current line: BYU -18.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 19.1 | FPI projection: BYU by 21.3

Clemson at South Carolina (noon, SECN). These two preseason top-15 teams are a combined 11-12, having fallen victim to poor development, close losses, mediocre new hires and any number of other afflictions. But that’s why Rivalry Week is amazing: This game is still going to be intense and hostile, and the winner will get a dose of positivity before a challenging offseason.

Current line: S.C. -2.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 0.5 | FPI projection: S.C. by 3.4

Toledo at Central Michigan (noon, ESPN+). Since a shocking loss to Bowling Green sent Toledo to 1-2 in conference play, the Rockets have won their past four MAC games by an average of 37-6. Their defense ranks fifth nationally in points allowed per drive. But CMU has won four of five to remain in the hunt. Who keeps title hopes alive (until Miami maybe dashes them later in the day)?

Current line: Toledo -10.5 | SP+ projection: Toledo by 10.3 | FPI projection: CMU by 9.5

Saturday afternoon

LSU at No. 8 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC). This one almost certainly belonged in one of the marquee categories above, but while so many other playoff contenders take to the road over Rivalry Week, OU has a less complicated task: win at home against an LSU team with a nonexistent offense, and the Sooners are in the CFP.

The Oklahoma offense could make this one complicated: LSU ranks ninth in defensive SP+, and OU has averaged only 14.8 offensive points and 4.6 yards per play against defenses ranked higher than 20th. But the Tigers scored only 13 points on Western Kentucky last week; 14 by the Sooners could be enough.

Current line: OU -10.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 11.7 | FPI projection: OU by 6.6

Troy at Southern Miss (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). The Sun Belt race is simple: The winner in Hattiesburg faces James Madison in the title game. Southern Miss no-showed against Texas State and fell at South Alabama to drop to 7-4. The Golden Eagles are increasingly vulnerable on defense, but Troy’s offense ranks 125th in yards per play. The Trojans are here because of red zone defense and a fierce pass rush.

Current line: USM -6.5 | SP+ projection: USM by 2.5 | FPI projection: USM by 1.5

Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (2 p.m., ESPN+). The winner is guaranteed a spot in the Conference USA title game. JSU had won five in a row until a misstep last week at Florida International, and WKU has won three straight CUSA games and nearly toppled LSU last week. Which young QB — JSU’s Caden Creel or WKU’s Rodney Tisdale Jr. — handles the moment better?

Current line: WKU -2.5 | SP+ projection: WKU by 3.7 | FPI projection: JSU by 0.3

Wisconsin at Minnesota (3:30 p.m., FS1). The road team has won three straight in this strange series. In its past four games, Wisconsin has overachieved against SP+ projections by 20.8 points per game. Minnesota has underachieved by 9.7. Can the Badgers win to wrap up the happiest possible 5-7 finish? Or will Minnesota rally to grab Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the fourth time in five years?

Current line: Minnesota -2.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 7.0 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 0.3

Penn State at Rutgers (3:30 p.m., BTN). Along with Georgia Southern-Marshall (1:30 p.m., ESPN+) and Arkansas State-Appalachian State (2:30 p.m., ESPN+), we have a trio of “Winner bowls, loser stays home” games with 5-6 teams squaring off Saturday afternoon.

Penn State has been legitimately strong under interim coach Terry Smith, and Ethan Grunkemeyer‘s 71.4 Total QBR toasts that of injured veteran Drew Allar (56.6). It would be a surprise if the Nittany Lions slipped up this close to the finish line against a Rutgers team that has lost six of eight.

Current line: PSU -11.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 14.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 11.1

Saturday evening

Northwestern at Illinois (7:30 p.m., Fox). POTENTIAL SNOW GAME ALERT. The forecast in Champaign is looking pretty dicey, and here’s a big “hell yes” to that. The road team has won four of five in this series, but Illinois has been infinitely better at home than on the road this season. Of course, Luke Altmyer and the Illini offense have underachieved for weeks. Can they rally on senior night?

Current line: Illinois -6.5 | SP+ projection: Illinois by 11.3 | FPI projection: Illinois by 6.3

North Carolina at NC State (7:30 p.m., ACCN). This is Bill Belichick’s first foray into one of the sport’s most underrated rivalries. UNC was rallying toward bowl eligibility before last week’s tight loss to Duke. Now the Tar Heels head to Raleigh to face an NC State team that is both physical and maddeningly inconsistent. A Wolfpack blowout? A UNC upset? Nothing would be particularly surprising.

Current line: NC State -7.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.4 | FPI projection: NC State by 8.7

UCLA at No. 17 USC (7:30 p.m., NBC). After a brief upturn following DeShaun Foster’s firing, UCLA has bottomed out again, losing its past four games by an average of 45-13. Staying close might require a solid amount of rivalry magic, but USC could be reeling after last week’s loss to Oregon officially eliminated the Trojans from CFP contention.

Current line: USC -20.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 27.3 | FPI projection: USC by 23.6

Late Saturday

UNLV at Nevada (9 p.m., CBSSN). They play for a cannon, and they had a nasty brawl in the not-so-distant past. Major “underrated rivalry” points here. Nevada has suddenly started playing well of late, and while we don’t know if UNLV will still have MWC title hopes by kickoff, the Rebels could hit double-digit wins for the second straight year.

Current line: UNLV -9.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 15.8 | FPI projection: UNLV by 10.4

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. The playoffs are underway in every division, and while the favorites probably aren’t going to be tested just yet, here’s a game you should track at each level.

FCS round of 24: No. 21 Yale at No. 13 Youngstown State (12 p.m., ESPN+). Two Ivy League teams reached the FCS playoffs in the Ancient Eight’s first year of accepting bids, and while Harvard (at Villanova, noon, ESPN+) appears to be losing steam quickly, Yale is peaking just in time. The Bulldogs have won their past six and have risen to 12th in SP+. Youngstown State is only 24th, but the Penguins score loads of points with dual-threat quarterback and Payton Award candidate Beau Brungard, and with their status as FCS royalty, I’m guessing they want to send a message against the playoff newcomers from the Northeast.

SP+ projection: Yale by 3.3

Division II round of 16: No. 10 Texas-Permian Basin at No. 15 Western Colorado (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+). A week after thumping No. 4 CSU-Pueblo to score the school’s first playoff win, UTPB returns to Colorado to face a WCU team fresh off of a top-five win of its own over Central Washington. This is a dynamite quarterback matchup — UTPB’s Kanon Gibson vs. WCU’s Drew Nash — and though the winner probably will face a massive task against No. 2 Harding, a quarterfinal berth would be sweet all the same.

SP+ projection Western by 5.6

Division III round of 32: No. 20 Wheaton at No. 5 Wartburg (1 p.m., ESPN+). I bet you thought I’d choose one of four teams from the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference — my own personal obsession — for this section, but I resisted because this game seems particularly exciting. Wartburg gives up only 10 points per game and piles up tackles for loss with a ridiculously active defensive front. Wheaton, meanwhile, averages 48.6 points behind the arm of quarterback Mark Forcucci.

SP+ projection: Wartburg by 0.5

NAIA quarterfinals: No. 9 Morningside at No. 8 College of Idaho (3 p.m., local streaming). College of Idaho reached the NAIA semifinals a couple of years ago thanks to a dynamite offense, but the Yotes have earned a huge home game this year thanks to defense. Morningside is NAIA royalty, having won three national titles since 2018, and with Zach Chevalier throwing to Drew Sellon and Lennx Brown, the Mustangs might have the best passing attack in NAIA.

SP+ projection: Morningside by 8.3

LAS VEGAS — Golden Knights captain Mark Stone, back in the lineup after being out for more than a month because of a wrist injury, scored a tying power-play goal in the third period Wednesday, but Vegas dropped a 4-3 shootout loss to the Ottawa Senators.

Vegas dropped to 1-8 in overtime games. The Golden Knights have points in seven of eight games, but four were overtime losses.

Stone, who was placed on injured reserve Oct. 20, had 13 points in his first six games before getting hurt.

“It’s good to have his energy back,” coach Bruce Cassidy said before Wednesday’s loss. “He’s good on the bench. He’s a leader. It’s just nice to have him back. He makes our team better.”

Stone had been skating with the Golden Knights’ American Hockey League affiliate in Henderson, Nevada.

“If I didn’t have that, I’d probably be looking more at Friday,” Stone said of his return. “Everything’s healed. I got the practices I needed. I’m ready to go.”

Stone was on the top line when he was injured but was on the third-line center against the Senators, with Mitch Marner moving to wing. Braeden Bowman, a 22-year-old rookie, remained on the top line with Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev.

This was not the first time the 33-year-old Stone has been injured in recent seasons. He played 66 games last season, his most since the 2018-19 season.

“Every injury is frustrating,” Stone said before Wednesday’s game. “I don’t enjoy rehabbing. I’ve unfortunately gotten good at it. I understand the best way to go about it, but no rehab’s fun. I don’t wish it on anyone. I’m excited to be back.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

POCATELLO and MOSCOW, Idaho — In remote stretches of I-84 between Boise and Pocatello in southern Idaho, the speed limit is 80 mph. It wouldn’t be unusual to set the cruise control to 90 and not worry about a speeding ticket. But in 2023, when Maclane Westbrook was a student at Idaho State, he blew past a state trooper sitting in the median and his speedometer read triple digits.

“I didn’t even try to slow down,” Westbrook said.

Westbrook was driving an ISU-issued car — with university insignia on the side — and was on his way back to campus from a board of educators meeting in the state capital and was quickly pulled over.

As Westbrook searched for an explanation that might possibly get him out of the ticket, a puzzled look overtook the trooper’s face. Sitting on the lap of Westbrook’s friend riding shotgun was a bald, silver-colored potato wearing a dry human smirk.

“You got a pottery project there?” the trooper asked.

This is how Westbrook found himself telling the story of the King Spud trophy — a long-lost relic in the Idaho–Idaho State rivalry — on the side of the highway, with hope its lore would inspire the trooper to issue just a warning. The tale did not have the desired outcome, and when the trooper retreated to his car to write the ticket, Westbrook’s friend noticed King Spud’s crown had been sitting on the floor mat. While they waited, he fixed it back on the trophy’s head.

When the trooper returned, he was perplexed yet again.

“Hey, he wasn’t wearing a crown when I was here the first time,” he said.

For Westbrook, it was an awkward traffic stop. For King Spud, it was just another chapter in an already bizarre existence. Because sometime around 1979, long before a replica of the original trophy found itself in the front seat of an Idaho State fleet car, baffling a state trooper, the original King Spud quietly and mysteriously vanished entirely. And for decades, no one seemed to care.

Born as a quirky art project at the University of Idaho in the early 1960s, the trophy’s vanishing act is one of the stranger mysteries in college sports. Over the past four decades, others have tried to track it down. This year, ESPN set out on its own adventure through Idaho’s small towns and college campuses, following decades of faint clues to determine what really happened to the lost King Spud — and whether it might still be out there.

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THE QUEST BEGAN in early August at Buddy’s Italian Restaurant in Pocatello, where former Idaho State sports information director Glenn Alford suggested we meet. Buddy’s opened its doors in 1961, and its weathered exterior suggests the building hasn’t changed much in the decades since.

Alford, 83, has been dining here since he was hired in 1967, and he was quick to recommend the spaghetti and meatballs. He seemed excited to meet with an out-of-towner embarking upon an unusual treasure hunt. A Stanford-educated historian, Alford spent 31 years as Idaho State’s sports information director. No one was better to deliver a first-hand account of the trophy’s place in history.

In the first half of the 20th century, Idaho-Idaho State wasn’t much of a rivalry. The schools are located on opposite sides of the state, and they are separated by about a nine-hour drive that covers nearly 600 miles. Additionally, from 1922 to 1959, Idaho played in the Pacific Coast Conference with USC, UCLA, Stanford and other large West Coast universities. The two schools played only twice in football prior to 1962, but when the Big Sky Conference formed in 1963, they started playing annually, and as many as four times a year in basketball.

“Idaho got its butt kicked regularly, because what in the hell were they doing playing USC and UCLA?” Alford said. “But they took great pride in being a [Division I] school and eventually sanity reigned there and they decided that was unsustainable. So, they joined the Big Sky, and nobody in the conference liked their attitude about, ‘We’re more important than everybody else.'”

The Vandals remained in the Big Sky until 1996, when they left for the Big West and for two decades tried to make football work at what is now the FBS level. But the geography — among other reasons — didn’t allow it to work. Idaho returned most of its sports to the Big Sky in 2014, and football returned to the conference in 2018, where the school again competes with more natural peers.

In 1968, Alford was preparing to hit the road for a neutral-site basketball game against Idaho in Twin Falls when he was approached by his boss.

“He says, ‘You’ve got to take the King Spud trophy with you.’ And I said, ‘What is the King Spud trophy?'” Alford recalls. “I’d never seen it. Never heard of it.”

The King Spud trophy was commissioned by the Moscow Chamber of Commerce in 1962 with the idea it would be awarded annually to the winner of the Idaho-Idaho State men’s basketball game or series.

For at least 17 years, that’s what happened, with the trophy bouncing back and forth between Moscow and Pocatello.

The state was not exactly a basketball mecca during this period, but the Bengals delivered one of the great moments in Big Sky history in 1977 when they beat UCLA in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. The upset ended the Bruins’ run of 10 consecutive trips to the Final Four and sits alongside Idaho State’s 1981 Division I-AA football national title as the greatest achievement in school history.

Alford admits he didn’t have an affinity for the King Spud trophy, nor did anyone else the way he remembers it. He never wrote about it in news releases, and it was something of a nuisance because of how heavy it was — Alford estimates it weighed about 25 pounds — making it difficult to lug around.

When Lynn Archibald arrived as the head coach after the NCAA tournament run in 1977, he also didn’t care for the trophy. After losing to Idaho in 1979, he told reporters: “The trophy should go to the losing team, not the winning one. It’s the ugliest thing I’ve ever seen. The only good thing that happened last weekend was losing it.”

After that, the trophy simply drifted out of public consciousness. There was no announcement of a retirement, no news reports that it had gone missing, no campus legend about a theft. One year it existed — lumpy, metallic, ugly enough that a coach wanted to give it to the loser — and then it was gone.

The simplest explanation is probably the most likely, he thinks. It was left behind due to forgetfulness or even discarded.

The conversation inside Buddy’s didn’t lead to any strong King Spud leads, only a feeling of nostalgia for the Idaho State that lived in Alford’s stories.

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THE OBVIOUS PLACE to begin the physical search is Idaho State’s ICCU Dome.

On a Tuesday morning, Idaho State sports information director Jon Match was waiting just a few steps from where the football team was practicing. Match was friendly and helpful, but realistic: King Spud has been missing for more than four decades, and nothing about the Dome suggests it holds many secrets. Still, he said, there are storage rooms and dusty closets in the building to sift through. If the trophy somehow survived, that would be the place to focus on searching.

We walk through the concourse — where most of the Bengals’ most treasured keepsakes are displayed in glass trophy cases — into a room that rarely has visitors. Cardboard boxes are filled with old stuff: jerseys, pictures, 80-year-old trophies, folders and a binder labeled “bbq sauce/road trip.” At the back of the room there is a hatch that leads into a dark crawl space under the bleachers — Alford had thrown out the possibility King Spud could be in there — but the risk/reward analysis determines it isn’t worth venturing more than a few feet past the opening.

After working through a few more storage areas, it becomes clear that whatever secrets the Dome holds, none of them resemble our elusive potato.

Idaho State athletic director Pauline Thiros also seems politely amused by the search for King Spud. Thiros is from Poky, played volleyball for the Bengals and has worked in the ISU athletic department since 1995, beginning as a volleyball coach and becoming AD in 2019.

“I actually was not aware of King Spud until a couple of years before I became athletic director,” she said in her office. “I heard about it with a scavenger hunt and King Spud — if you find King Spud, you’re like the grand champion. And it was really just a joke.”

Thiros was disappointed when King Spud didn’t turn up during a renovation project a few years ago, but a track trophy from 1917 was discovered under the bleachers.

She didn’t rule out the possibility the royal russet was somewhere still on campus, but she wasn’t optimistic.

“I think somebody thought it was so ugly that they tossed it,” she said.

The general feeling about King Spud changed dramatically in the years after it faded into obscurity, however, and after a King Spud account was created on Twitter in 2022, a new generation of Idaho State students was introduced to the trophy in a more positive manner.

“The students became weirdly obsessed with King Spud,” she said, affectionately. “They’re the ones that ultimately worked with Idaho students to bring it back.”

One of those students was Maclane Westbrook. He grew up in Oregon and didn’t arrive in Pocatello with any sense of local tradition. He remembers King Spud as a vague image at first — a photo he might have seen somewhere online — until a 2021 Idaho State Journal story pulled it into focus.

During a detour from ISU as a student at College of Eastern Idaho, he noticed how little campus identity a community college can have. So when he returned to Idaho State, King Spud looked less like a joke and more like an opportunity. He got involved in student government and started pitching the idea of bringing the trophy back.

“Whenever I brought it up, I felt like I had to be careful about it,” he said. “I was afraid I would just start talking about King Spud and someone [would think] I was insane. So I was trying to be careful whenever I started talking about it or telling people about it. But whenever I did, everyone was pretty enthusiastic about it. ‘That’s really cool.’ ‘That should be brought back.'”

Westbrook put together a presentation, walked into a Wednesday night student senate meeting and made his case. Everyone was all for it. When the student government in Moscow was looped in, it was equally enthusiastic.

Details about funding were relatively easy to sort through, but there was a question about how it should be awarded. Should the trophy be tied only to men’s basketball, as it once was, or shared with the women’s teams?

“There was also a discussion for doing a Queen Spud trophy, which I thought would’ve been the coolest thing to do,” Westbrook said. “Have a King Spud and a Queen Spud. And then the goal is to try to win them both, so you can unite the monarchy of the spud.”

In the end, simplicity won out. King Spud would be a combined competition involving all four annual men’s and women’s basketball games. If either school won at least three of the four games, it kept the trophy for the year. If the series ended 2-2, the tiebreaker would be total point differential.

In the first season of the reboot in 2023, the tiebreaker was in play as the Idaho State women’s team needed to win or lose by seven points or fewer. The Bengals trailed by 21 at halftime but had cut the deficit to 8 with 1:17 left. At this point, Thiros’ rooting interest shifted from the game to what equated to a point spread.

She was watching on television as the final seconds ticked down.

“I am no longer thinking we need to win this game,” Thiros said. “I’m thinking we have to score a basket.”

A late jumper cut the deficit to six, ensuring King Spud would spend the next year in Pocatello.

“After the game, I’m congratulating Coach [Seton Sobolewski],” Thiros said. “I’m like, ‘Yeah, I know we wanted the W, but hey, you got it, you’re bringing home King Spud.’ And he was like, ‘What are you talking about?’ He was still pissed about the loss.

“He didn’t care about King Spud the first time. He cares now. It was hilarious.”

Idaho State also won the most recent series for the 2024-25 school year, so a visit to the student union — where the new King Spud is displayed — was also in order. School wasn’t in session, so the building was empty. On the second floor, in a vertical glass case, sat the modern King Spud.

It was … underwhelming. For all the enthusiasm students had poured into resurrecting the tradition, the display didn’t fully capture that energy. There was no plaque, no sign explaining its history or its odd place in the Idaho-Idaho State rivalry. Just a strange, side-eyed silver potato wearing a gold crown, looking vaguely annoyed to be sitting alone in an empty student union.

The last stop in Pocatello was a pawn shop about 7 miles away on the edge of town. “Pawn Stars” has tricked me into believing this is exactly the sort of place where miraculous discoveries happen. The cinderblock building with barred windows sat alone behind a patch of gravel. Inside, I approached a man with a dolly and asked if he was the proprietor.

“Depends on what you’re selling,” he said.

I gave him the quick King Spud spiel and he also had never heard of it. That was that, and I left Pocatello no closer to finding the original King Spud than when the journey started.

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WITHOUT ANY LUCK in Pocatello, the quest moved north to Moscow. If there is one building in the country that might be hiding a 60-year-old potato in some forgotten corner, maybe it would be the state’s other dome. The Kibbie Dome.

For decades, the building has been a personal curiosity — part football stadium, part indoor track, part architectural experiment, part fever dream. Assistant athletic director Jerek Wolcott weaved us through halls that felt more like the underbelly of a ship than the guts of a stadium. He unlocked a cement-walled room tucked behind one of the end zones. Dust coated everything. Cardboard boxes were filled with trophies dating back to the 1930s. No spud.

We climb a hidden set of stairs and a ladder into the rafters, where we can peer through the slats in the roof onto the field below. There is, of course, no logical reason King Spud would be here, but common sense has long been lost. And the view of the Palouse from the roof ends up being worth the climb.

With no luck inside the Kibbie Dome, the next logical step was to meet with the person who helped resurrect King Spud in the first place.

Casey Doyle is a professor of art and design at the University of Idaho, and during a quiet summer a few years ago someone from the library approached him with an unusual request: Could he re-create a long-lost potato-shaped rivalry trophy so the school could display it in the library?

The project was outside his normal artistic lane. He’s not a sports fan, and Doyle’s background blends traditional sculpture with performance-based work and nontraditional materials, but the idea of re-creating a decades-old trophy born from student folklore was interesting enough for him to take it on.

Doyle began with the few photographs that exist of the original King Spud. Working in clay made the most sense given the budget and his expertise. He blocked out a solid clay potato first, shaping its rounded form, then gradually carved in the signature elements: the smirking face, the rounded head, the base beneath it and the simple crown that once sat atop the original.

Once the exterior form looked right, he cut the sculpture cleanly down the middle and hollowed it out so it wouldn’t explode during firing. The base was thrown separately on a pottery wheel. After firing, it became the new physical reference point for the trophy’s rebirth.

The library then had Doyle’s sculpture 3D-scanned so it could produce small replica keychains. Doyle assumed that was the extent of its use. Until we met in the library a few feet from where his clay version is on display. Doyle had no idea it had also been 3D printed to be put back in circulation as a rivalry trophy.

By this point, the mission had shifted. Finding the original King Spud felt unlikely; understanding its lore was essential. And in Moscow, there was only one place to go for that — the Corner Club, the town’s legendary sports bar.

In the middle of a weekday afternoon, the place was empty. Marc Trivelpiece, the owner since 2007, stood behind the bar wiping down glasses. One of the King Spud keychains is on display and another depiction of the trophy is on the wall.

Trivelpiece didn’t need much prompting to dive into the mystery. His theory about the missing trophy mirrored the most common one: Someone tossed it decades ago.

“Where else would it have gone?” he asked. “We’ve been looking for it for years — at least we have. I don’t know how much effort Idaho State put into looking for it.

“It could have been somebody took it home and then it got put in the back of a closet and they passed away and their kids didn’t know what it was. They got rid of it. Who knows.”

At Corner Club, the lore of King Spud lived on. And maybe that would have to be enough.

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A HANDFUL OF follow-up calls after the Idaho quest didn’t uncover anything new. At some point, the odyssey stopped being about finding a missing object and became a question about why anyone would care this much about a decades-old potato trophy in the first place.

Maybe the answer is simple: Rivalry trophies are fun. Even the clothing company Homefield Apparel has embraced the lore, selling a King Spud T-shirt. Trophies can be quirky, tangible excuses for schools to argue about bragging rights, to tell old stories, to let a football game or basketball series feel like it carries just a little more weight than the standings say it does.

That became clearer when Idaho State revived not just King Spud, but a trophy it didn’t even know it had lost. In the wake of King Spud’s resurrection, Thiros asked Westbrook if he had any other ideas in the spirit of King Spud.

“Well, there’s the Train Bell Trophy. It’s down at Weber State collecting dust,” he said.

The bell wasn’t missing so much as forgotten, tucked away somewhere at Weber State since it was last awarded in 1973.

“So for two years we kind of had discussions with Weber State about, let’s bring back the Train Bell,” Thiros said.

Finally, Idaho State stopped waiting. The school announced unilaterally that the Train Bell Trophy was returning, and when the Bengals won in Ogden, Utah, for the first time in 40 years, the offensive line lugged the heavy bell to a roaring ISU student section.

The same pattern repeated itself in the Idaho-Idaho State football rivalry. Since 2018, the schools had played for the Battle of the Domes Trophy, but a corporate sponsorship change led to its quiet retirement after the 2022 season. Suddenly, football had no symbol at all.

For the 2023 meeting, then-Idaho head coach Jason Eck refused to let the game go trophy-less. He cobbled together a temporary Potato State Trophy by attaching a Mr. Potato Head to the Battle of the Domes base. It was goofy and earnest.

Last year, Wolcott created a permanent fix. He carved the official Potato State Trophy out of north Idaho Douglas fir, a straightforward, sturdy replacement for a rivalry that has never taken itself too seriously. Idaho won last year, but on Saturday the Bengals beat the Vandals 37-16 to claim the trophy, uniting it with King Spud for the first time.

The original King Spud remains missing — maybe in a landfill, maybe truly gone. If anything, the hunt for something lost ended up bringing more traditions back into the light. Rivalry trophies survive not because they endure, but because people keep deciding they still matter.