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Next year is forecast to be one of the hottest years on record and even warmer than 2022, experts have said.

Met Office scientists estimate that 2023 will be the 10th consecutive year in which global temperatures will be at least 1C above pre-industrial levels, measured as the period from 1850 to 1900.

The current hottest year on record is 2016, a year that saw an “El Nino” climate pattern in the Pacific, pushing up sea temperatures and therefore global temperatures on top of global warming trends.

Annual averages of global air temperature at a height of two metres estimated change since the pre-industrial period (left-hand axis) and relative to 1991-2020 (right-hand axis) according to different datasets: Red bars: ERA5 (ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service, C3S); Dots: GISTEMPv4 (NASA); HadCRUT5 (Met Office Hadley Centre); NOAAGlobalTempv5 (NOAA), JRA-55 (JMA); and Berkeley Earth. Pic: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF
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Pic: Copernicus Climate Change Service

In recent years, the Pacific has experienced the opposite effect, “La Nina”, which has kept temperatures lower.

However, this is set to come to an end, says Dr Nick Dunstone, who has led the Met Office’s 2023 global temperature forecast.

“The global temperature over the last three years has been influenced by the effect of a prolonged La Nina – where cooler than average sea-surface temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific,” he said. “La Nina has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperature.

“For next year our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years with La Nina state, with a return to relative warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific.

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“This shift is likely to lead to global temperature in 2023 being warmer than 2022.”

The Met Office’s forecast predicts global average temperatures in 2023 will be around 1.2C above what they were before humans started to drive climate change.

Last year, experts predicted 2022’s global temperature would be between 0.97C and 1.21C above pre-industrial levels, with a central estimate of 1.09C. Data for the year to October suggests the temperature is around 1.16C above the pre-industrial era.

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At the COP27 climate summit, held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in November, countries agreed a historic dedicated fund to help vulnerable nations hit by climate disasters, but failed to step up efforts to tackle the damaging emissions that cause them.

Professor Adam Scaife, the Met Office’s head of long-range prediction, said that while 2023 might not break the 2016 record it will likely see further high temperatures.

“Without a preceding El Nino to boost global temperature, 2023 may not be a record-breaking year, but with the background increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace it is likely that next year will be another notable year in the series,” he said.

As the long hot summer continues, reservoirs like Howden reservoir, at the top of the Derwent Valley in The Peak District, begin to show the cracks.
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The Howden Reservoir, at the top of Derwent Valley in the Peak District, pictured earlier in 2022

Read more:
Why was it so cold, even though climate change is making the world hotter?

Properties in England at risk of flooding ‘to double in next 30 years’
How green is your city centre? The best and worst in Britain ranked

Dr Doug Smith, a climate prediction expert for the national weather service, said some parts of the world had seen greater increases than others.

“The fact that global average temperatures are at or above 1C for a decade masks the considerable temperature variation across the world,” he said.

“Some locations such as the Arctic have warmed by several degrees since pre-industrial times.”

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Billions of pounds wasted by Home Office on asylum hotels, MPs say

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Billions of pounds wasted by Home Office on asylum hotels, MPs say

Billions of pounds are being wasted by the Home Office on asylum hotels, a committee of MPs say.

A damning report by the Home Affairs Committee says the expected cost of housing asylum seekers has tripled from £4.5bn to £15.3bn.

This follows a “dramatic increase” in demand following the COVID pandemic and rising numbers of those arriving by small boat.

The report, referring to accommodation contracts for 2019-2029, criticises the Home Office for failing to reclaim excess profits from asylum accommodation providers totalling tens of millions of pounds owed to the department.

The government has promised to end the housing of asylum seekers in hotels by 2029 amid mounting pressure over costs and a backlash in local communities.

Communities Secretary Steve Reed told Sky News the government was “working at pace to fix the problems we inherited” including expanding the number of caseworkers examining asylum cases.

“The Home Secretary… has been involved in conversations about how you can look at using disused military bases, for instance, instead of hotels, to accommodate people far more cheaply.

“But it takes time to get your hands on those sites, construct the accommodation and then move people into it. But we’ve already saved £1 billion. So it’s starting to go down.”

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Meet those standing with the ‘dehumanised and degraded’

The report said that, without a clear plan for alternative accommodation, the government risks “under-delivery and consequently undermining public trust still further”.

It added that the Home Office repeatedly cut corners in its “chaotic” response to pressures.

Committee chair Dame Karen Bradley called for the government to “get a grip” on the system “in order to bring costs down” and learn from its mistakes, or it is “doomed to repeat them”.

She added: “The Home Office has not proved able to develop a long-term strategy for the delivery of asylum accommodation. It has instead focused on short-term, reactive responses.”

The committee’s report also noted the Home Office failed to engage with communities and local residents who have “genuine concerns” over asylum hotels in their area, as well as people travelling from other areas “to promote divisive agendas or instigate disorder”.

MPs have pressed for the Home Office to prioritise closing hotels where there have been “significant community cohesion issues” – including in Epping, Essex, where demonstrations outside the Bell Hotel were held after migrant Hadush Kebatu was charged and later jailed for sexual assault.

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Why do people oppose asylum hotels?

The report said: “The Home Office has undoubtedly been operating in an extremely challenging environment, but its chaotic response has demonstrated that it has not been up to the challenge.

“The 2026 break clause and end of the contracts in 2029 represent opportunities to draw a line under the current failed, chaotic and expensive system and move to a model that is more effective and offers value for money.

“The lack of engagement and transparency has left space for misinformation and mistrust to grow, which in too many areas has led to tensions and undermined the ability of local partners to promote social cohesion.”

The Bell Hotel in Epping. Pic: PA
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The Bell Hotel in Epping. Pic: PA

It also said the government has mismanaged contracts handed to hotels used to house asylum seekers. This includes a lack of fines for hotels that have poor performance and not claiming tens of millions of pounds in excess profits.

Read more:
Who says what on asylum hotels
Where could asylum seekers go?
How many asylum seekers are in hotels

Protests in Essex. Pic: AP
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Protests in Essex. Pic: AP

The committee has instead called for a future accommodation system to be based on fairness rather than cost alone, to improve communication with local communities and be flexible to meet unpredictable demands.

A Home Office spokesperson said: “The government is furious about the number of illegal migrants in this country and in hotels.

“That is why we will close every single asylum hotel – saving the taxpayer billions of pounds.

“We have already taken action – closing hotels, slashing asylum costs by nearly £1bn and exploring the use of military bases and disused properties.”

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Timeline of how manhunt for wrongly released sex offender migrant Hadush Kebatu unfolded

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Timeline of how manhunt for wrongly released sex offender migrant Hadush Kebatu unfolded

The small-boat sex offender Hadush Kebatu was arrested on Sunday morning on the third day of a manhunt after he was mistakenly freed from prison.

The Ethiopian national had been serving a 12-month sentence at HMP Chelmsford since September. He was due to be released in order to be immediately deported, but instead he was able to board a train to London.

The mistake triggered a manhunt that involved three police forces looking for the prisoner. He was finally tracked down to Finsbury Park on Sunday, where he was arrested.

Here, Sky News examines how the event has unfolded:

Friday 24 October

Kebatu is released from HMP Chelmsford wearing a prison-issued grey tracksuit. He is also holding a clear plastic bag containing his possessions.

The prison released him on the expectation that he would be picked up by immigration enforcement, and the Home Office was ready to take Kebatu to an immigration removal centre, it is understood.

But it is unclear exactly what happened next.

A lorry driver, who was delivering equipment to Chelmsford jail on Friday, told Sky News correspondent Tom Parmenter he saw the “confused” offender outside the facility being directed by prison staff to the city’s railway station following his release.

The offender is said to have returned to the prison “four or five times” but was turned away.

Footage later appears to show Kebatu in Chelmsford High Street.

In the video he appears to ask a group of people for help.

12.41pm: The prisoner boards a Greater Anglia London-bound train at Chelmsford station.

12.51pm: The train arrives at Shenfield station, in the Essex borough of Brentwood.

12.57pm: Essex Police are informed by the prison service that Kebatu was mistakenly released.

The force says it has launched a search operation and is working closely with partner agencies.

By the time the search started, the train that Kebatu boarded at Chelmsford had already called at Shenfield, according to Trainline data.

Essex Police appeals to anyone who has seen the prisoner to contact the force immediately.

1.12pm: Kebatu gets off the train at Stratford in east London.

8pm: Kebatu was seen in the Dalston area of Hackney.

He was pictured still wearing his prison-issue grey tracksuit top and bottoms, and was carrying his belongings “in a distinctive white bag with pictures of avocados on it”.

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Wanted asylum seeker captured on CCTV

Saturday 25 October

12.37pm: The Metropolitan Police announces it has taken over the manhunt for Kebatu.

In a statement, commander James Conway says senior investigating officers are “examining CCTV” from around Stratford station and further afield, to establish information about the prisoner’s subsequent movements.

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Police call on public to assist on manhunt

2.00pm: A delivery driver who spoke to Kebatu outside Chelmsford prison tells Sky News the “confused” offender was guided to the railway station by prison staff.

He says Kebatu approached him with no idea of where he was supposed to go.

He adds the prisoner must have been outside the prison for roughly “an hour and a half”, before he finally left, adding: “They [the officers] were basically sending him away, saying, ‘Go, you’ve been released, you go’.”

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Witness: Wrongly freed migrant ‘asked me for help’

4.30pm: Met Police Commander James Conway makes a direct appeal to Kebatu.

“We want to locate you in a safe and controlled way. You had already indicated a desire to return to Ethiopia when speaking to immigration staff,” he says.

“The best outcome for you is to make contact directly with us by either calling 999 or reporting yourself to a police station.”

He says he believes Kebatu has access to funds and that he’s sought assistance from members of the public and station staff in both Chelmsford and London.

Read more:
How many prisoners are released by mistake?

Sunday 26 October

8.30am: After receiving information from the public, the Met trace Kebatu to Finsbury Park where he is arrested and taken into custody.

9.30am: Met Police put out press statement confirming the arrest of Kebatu and say: “This has been a diligent and fast paced investigation led by specialist officers from the Metropolitan Police, supported by Essex Police and the British Transport Police.

“Information from the public led officers to Finsbury Park and following a search, they located Mr Kebatu. He was detained by police, but will be returned to the custody of the Prison Service.

“I am extremely grateful to the public for their support following our appeal, which assisted in locating Mr Kebatu.”

What happened in the lead up to the wrongful release?

Kebatu was found guilty of five offences after a three-day trial at Chelmsford and Colchester magistrates’ courts in September.

His case led to protesters and counter-protesters taking to the streets in Epping, Essex, and eventually outside hotels housing asylum seekers across the country.

The incidents occurred in July, eight days after he arrived in the UK by small boat.

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Father of boy, 2, who died from mould in flat hopes new law ‘might be enough to protect others’

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Father of boy, 2, who died from mould in flat hopes new law 'might be enough to protect others'

The father of a two-year-old boy who died from black mould in his social housing flat says he never wants anyone else to go through what they have – as a new law brought in after his death comes into effect.

Awaab Ishak died in 2020 from a severe respiratory illness caused by prolonged exposure to the mould in his family’s housing association flat in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.

His throat, windpipe and other airways were swollen and congested. Fungus was found in his blood and lungs, with such severe inflammation that his official cause of death was given as “environmental mould pollution”.

His father, Faisal Ishak, had complained repeatedly to the housing provider, Rochdale Boroughwide Housing, about the mould in the three years leading up to his son’s death – but nothing was done.

The toddler’s death caused outrage and prompted the passage of Awaab’s Law with a requirement for landlords to fix reported hazards in social housing more speedily and rehouse tenants in safe accommodation if necessary.

But as the rules come into force in England, a UK-wide survey found 23% of those who said they had issues such as damp, mould or condensation in their homes were social renters.

Two-year-old Awaab Ishak's death caused outrage. Pic: PA
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Two-year-old Awaab Ishak’s death caused outrage. Pic: PA

Some 3,982 adults were surveyed by Censuswide earlier this month for the Health Equals campaign, which claims lives are being cut short across the UK, with damp, cold and mould in people’s homes being part of the problem.

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Speaking to Sky News, Mr Ishak said he was grateful there was now a new law protecting people going forward, and although it would “never bring Awaab back… it might be enough to protect others”.

Following Awaab’s death, Rochdale Boroughwide Housing was eventually stripped of its funding, and its chief executive, Gareth Swarbrick, was sacked after it emerged that he earned £170,000 during the year of Awaab’s death.

Mr Ishak added: “It was really hard for me. I lost my first child suddenly – it was really hard.

“We were very angry but couldn’t do anything about it. We didn’t get help.

“They have to learn from our case.”

Awaab Ishak's home
Image:
Awaab Ishak’s home

The first phase of Awaab’s Law takes effect today and will compel landlords to rectify all emergency hazards and hazardous damp and mould. For emergency hazards, an investigation and the work to fix the problem must take place within 24 hours of the landlord becoming aware of the issue.

If they don’t – tenants can take legal action.

Read more on Sky News:
Reform UK defends MP accused of ‘racism’
Potential mansion tax plan criticised

Next year, the regulations will be extended to further issues like excess cold, fire and electrical hazards.

Housing Secretary Steve Reed said: “Everyone deserves a safe and decent home to live in and Awaab Ishak is a powerful reminder of how this can sadly be a matter of life or death.

“Awaab’s family has fought hard for change and their work to protect millions of tenants’ lives will live on as a legacy to their son.

“Our changes will give tenants a stronger voice and force landlords to act urgently when lives are at risk, ensuring such tragedies are never repeated.”

Awaab on his second birthday
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Awaab on his second birthday

In 2027, the government plans to extend the law to cover all remaining health and safety hazards. There are also plans to eventually extend the rules to the private rented sector, although no date has been given for this as yet.

While the government has committed to extending Awaab’s Law, through the Renters’ Rights Bill, which is currently awaiting royal assent, no firm timeframe has been given.

The research by Health Equals also found people from the lowest-income households were almost twice as likely to live in homes with issues like damp or mould than the highest income households – 21% compared with 12%.

‘It’s getting worse’

Some charities and campaign groups fear Awaab’s Law will not go far – or fast – enough to offset this disparity.

Kirby Hoyle of the Greater Manchester Tenants Union said: “It’s shocking – we’ve seen families coming forward whose children have been hospitalised with damp and mould. And this is even after Awaab’s death

“I think it’s getting worse”

Health Equals’ chief campaigns officer Paul McDonald said while Awaab’s Law was an “important milestone”, its research also shows “we need to go further”.

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