Dan Yergin predicts oil prices could hit $121 a barrel when China fully reopens, but warned there are three major uncertainties looming over the market.
“Our base case for 2023 is $90 for Brent but you have to look at other cases,” the S&P Global vice chairman said, adding there are three major uncertainties: the Federal Reserve’s decisions, China demand and Moscow’s reaction to the price caps.
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“If China gets over Covid … then you add a lot of demand to the market,” Yergin told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Tuesday.
That could be “one big boost” and push prices to $121 a barrel, building on strains caused by underinvestment in oil and gas, Yergin said. That would be near highs set in March after Russia invaded Ukraine.
On the flipside, Yergin said prices could fall to around $70 per barrel in a recession.
In the past three weeks, local and central government authorities in China loosened several strict Covid measures that had required people to stay home and businesses to operate mostly remotely.
Oil demand from the world’s top importer could reach 15.7 million barrels per day in 2023, which is around 700,000 barrels higher than 2022, S&P said in its most recent forecast.
Other considerations include Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to the price caps imposed by the European Union, as well as further rate hikes undertaken by the Fed.
EU’s energy ministers on Monday agreed to cap natural gas prices at 180 euros per megawatt hour, but the European Commission cautioned that the measure could be suspended if the “risks outweigh the benefits.” The decision came on the heels of an oil price cap of $60 per barrel at the start of December.
Yergin said he thinks the recently imposed gas price cap “probably will work. He said it also acts as an anticipation of higher gas prices in subsequent winters due to a lack of Russian gas and competing demand between Europe and Asia for LNG.
In Asia’s Wednesday morning trade, Brent crude futures added 0.40% to $80.31 a barrel, while U.S. marker West Texas Intermediate futures traded up 0.33% at $76.48 per barrel.
Cowboy, the Brussels-based connected e-bike maker, says it has secured the lifeline it needs to keep the lights on – and the wheels turning – after what the company calls “the most challenging period in its history.” And while market downturns and supply chain woes set the stage, it was a recall that nearly pushed the brand over the edge.
Over the past two years, Cowboy has been riding through the same headwinds that have knocked down much of the bike industry: post-COVID demand shifts, supply chain breakdowns, and a brutal market correction that has already claimed several high-profile e-bike brands. But in the middle of that storm came an extra blow – the company’s first-ever recall.
It started with an unapproved change from a supplier that affected a subset of Cowboy’s Cruiser ST bikes. It turned out that the frames were starting to crack after 2,500 km (1,550 miles). The issue was obviously serious, and it inevitably triggered an official recall. Frames had to be replaced, deliveries were delayed, spare parts became scarce, and customer service backlogs grew. For a company built on sleek design and seamless rider experience, it was a gut punch.
Cowboy says they kept quiet publicly while working on a solution, but now they’re ready to talk – because they’ve found one. In an announcement this week, the company revealed two major milestones: short-term financing to restart production and operations, and a signed term sheet with new financial partner REBIRTH GROUP HOLDING SA. The deal comes with the backing of Cowboy’s existing investors and debt provider, setting the company on a path it says will lead to long-term stability.
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There’s already some tangible progress. Replacement frames have arrived from suppliers, the first recall service hub is now operational (with more to open this summer), and production is gradually ramping back up.
Cowboy’s goal is to have normal operations restored before the end of the year, which means clearing backlogged orders, resolving outstanding customer cases, and getting back to the level of service that won them awards and loyal riders in the first place.
Cowboy has built a reputation for high-tech, urban-focused e-bikes and a premium riding experience, with customers across Europe and the US. But even the best-connected bike in the world can’t outrun a recall and a funding crunch forever. Now, this new deal gives Cowboy both the extra cash and the extra shot it needs to keep the ride going.
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Voltify plans to build a series of energy microgrids to power its locomotive batteries, as shown in this computer-generated image.
Voltify
Daphna Langer has a bold ambition: To decarbonize the rail industry in less than a decade.
How? By convincing U.S. freight railroad companies to switch from diesel power to rechargeable batteries — part of a business model Langer estimates could make her company, Voltify, as much as $10 billion a year.
The rail industry needs to reduce its emissions by 5% a year by 2030 to reach net-zero goals, according to a 2023 report by the International Energy Agency. In addition, switching to battery electricity would save U.S. rail freight companies $94 billion over 20 years, according to a 2021 study published in the journal Nature Energy.
Voltify’s VoltCars — essentially sodium-ion batteries on wheels — are designed to connect to existing freight locomotives.
Convincing the $80-billion U.S. rail industry to switch from a traditional and long-relied on fossil fuel to renewable energy might seem a tough task, but there are several reasons Langer said she is confident in Voltify’s goal.
After a stint advising multiple early-stage companies in the climate industry, Langer noticed two things that limited their growth. “Most of them rely on subsidies of governments, and [the] second [factor] is that they rely on manufacturing and scaling that just doesn’t exist today,” she said.
In a bid to overcome those hurdles, Langer held meetings with hundreds of people in the energy and materials industries, seeking opportunities. When she first met her co-founder Alon Kessel, it was a “ding ding” moment, she said.
A computer-generated image illustrating Voltify’s VoltCar batteries attached to a locomotive.
Voltify
Kessel knew the renewable energy market well, having co-founded Doral, a firm that owns and operates dozens of solar energy farms in the U.S. and Europe. He calculated that the six largest freight railroad companies in the U.S. — including Union Pacific and CSX — were collectively spending more than $11 billion a year on diesel, a figure verified by CNBC. Union Pacific, for example, spent almost $2.5 billion on fuel in 2024, per its annual report.
Langer and Kessel saw an opportunity. What if they could convince the large companies — known as Class 1 railroads — to convert their locomotives from diesel to battery power?
“Converting six companies is not that hard. And having that ability to create such an impact with just six companies, it’s huge,” Langer said. There is almost 140,000 miles of freight railroad track in the U.S., with the majority of the locomotives powered by diesel as there is little overhead electrification.
Langer and Kessel founded Voltify in 2023 and set about meeting the railroad companies. But they found initial resistance. “There’s a lot of skepticism, because this is such a traditional industry, and uptime and and reliability are key,” Langer said. “We’ve been figuring out what would be able to … fit into their schedule, to fit into their operations without harming their efficiency.”
The companies’ biggest concern was the amount of time it might take to charge the batteries, and that there would always be the power supply to do so. “The rail companies, who have been very blunt about it, [said] ‘Listen, we don’t really care about the energy source. We just need to make sure that it’s always up. There’s always energy,'” Langer said.
So Voltify spent about a year working on an algorithm that could forecast the energy demands of trains “in every route,” Langer said, and the company is also building its first solar-powered energy microgrid that Langer said is on track to be finished by the end of the year. “Our calculations show that a network of these microgrids could eventually power all trains in North America,” Langer told CNBC in an email. Voltify estimates that to do so would require 1,400 microgrids.
Wabtec’s FLXdrive battery locomotive was developed in 2019.
Wabtec
Voltify is in “very active” talks with three of North America’s largest railroad companies, Langer said, adding that it is set to run a demonstration project with a smaller railroad company later this year. Voltify is also starting a pilot with a Class 1 railroad company in early 2026, and Langer said it is “expected” that this will become a commercial deployment after several months.
Voltify isn’t the first company to come up with the idea of powering freight trains with batteries. In 2019, freight rail firm Wabtec developed a battery-electric locomotive called the FLXdrive, with the first trains set to operate in Australia after being ordered by miner BHP Group. The company also tested its battery-electric locomotive with GE, and said in an email to CNBC that it plans to test and operate FLXdrive trains in North and South American markets.
The technology can reduce diesel consumption and emissions by 30%, according to Tim Bader, Wabtec’s director of external and engineering communications, in an email to CNBC. “This benefit is critical since fuel is one of the major operating costs for a railroad,” he said.
But as the technology is emerging, there are challenges such as charging time and battery capacity, plus a “challenging” business case given the infrastructure investments required. “Like any emerging technology, these challenges will diminish as the industry continues to research and improve battery-power solutions,” Bader said.
A computer-generated image of a passenger train on New York City’s MTA Metro North network, which is set to be powered by Siemens Mobility Charger B+AC battery.
Siemens Mobility
There’s also “substantial” market potential for battery-powered passenger trains, according to Tobias Bauer, the acting CEO for Siemens Mobility North America, in an email to CNBC. “Battery-powered trains represent a new and exciting platform for the rail market, particularly as operators seek alternatives for non-electrified routes,” Bauer said.
Siemens Mobility has sold more than 400 diesel-electric Charger locomotives in North America, and in June launched its battery-electric train, the Charger B+AC, selling 13 to the New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority and Metro-North Railroad.
The new locomotive draws electricity from overhead catenary wires and transfers to battery power when needed, according to an online release. While the locomotives’ range is currently up to 100 miles, Bauer said that is expected to grow as the battery technology advances.
In February, Siemens Mobility received an order from Swiss freight operator WRS Widmer Rail Services for two of its Vectron lithium-ion battery locomotives, which can be used for shunting without the need for overhead power lines. Asked about the potential for battery-powered freight trains, Bauer said: “A full transition to battery-powered freight would depend on route specifics and charging infrastructure, but the potential is there.”
— CNBC’s Michael Wayland contributed to this report.
Chevy set a new EV range record going nearly 1,060 miles on a single charge in an optimized, but unmodified Chevy Silverado EV Work Truck that no one saw coming. No one, that is, except Chargeway founder Matt Teske. His EV route-planning map predicted the Silverado’s record-setting run with better than 99% accuracy – and he’s here to talk about it on today’s electric episode of Quick Charge!
We’ve also got a deep dive into what I think the biggest issue facing more widespread EV adoption might be, and a new solution from Blink Charging that might solve it.
Today’s episode is brought to you by Retrospec—makers of sleek, powerful e-bikes and outdoor gear built for everyday adventure. Check out Retrospec’s viral city ebike, the Beaumont Rev 2, made with a vintage-inspired frame design and modern electric features, all for just $999!
The best part: Electrek listeners can get 10% off their next ride until August 14 with the exclusive code ELECTREK10 only at retrospec.com
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