Through triumph and tragedy, Michigan’s Olu Oluwatimi became the nation’s top lineman
WHEN IT CAME time for center Olu Oluwatimi to take the stage at the Michigan talent show last August, he grabbed the microphone with a clear plan in mind.
It was time to let his new teammates really see him, the way his former Virginia teammates saw him for the bulk of his college career.
“I already know what song it was,” his old Virginia roommate, Richard Burney, says with a laugh.
Burney said Oluwatimi, who started 35 games at Virginia before transferring to Michigan, would sing the song in the shower, or alone in his room, or anywhere, really.
I never know when you might walk by
So I gotta be right on time
When I see you
When I see you
There is something unexpected but particularly endearing about watching a 6-foot-3, 307-pound man belt out “When I See U,” a slow jam by former American Idol winner Fantasia. His Michigan teammates started clapping and singing along.
Sherrone Moore, Michigan’s offensive line coach and co-offensive coordinator, remembers watching the reaction of the players in the room. “It was a really cool moment, and just to see him open up like that was super awesome,” Moore said.
Shortly after the talent show, his teammates voted Oluwatimi an alternate captain — seven months after his arrival to campus. Offensive linemen rarely take the spotlight, but that is not the case this season with Oluwatimi, the best player on the best offensive line in college football. “When I See U” might as well be the unofficial theme to his season.
Michigan plays TCU in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Saturday (4 p.m. ET, ESPN), and it’s Oluwatimi who drives one of the best rushing teams in the nation. He’s also a veteran presence for first-year starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy as the Wolverines try to win their first national championship since 1997.
His affable personality, smarts, work ethic and leadership have made him a locker room favorite. None of this is surprising to anyone at Virginia, who watched Oluwatimi grow from walk-on to Rimington Award finalist over four years with the Cavaliers. When he decided to transfer to Michigan for 2022, those who know him best understood.
Indeed, former teammates and coaches might as well run the Olu Oluwatimi fan club, as they soak in everything he has earned.
They saw this — saw him — long ago.
“When preparation meets opportunity, there’s no luck involved in that,” former Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall said. “Anyone on the previous staff at Virginia, just smiles, like of course. What else would you expect?'”
But the journey itself has been unexpected and filled with challenges, as Oluwatimi went from largely overlooked high school recruit to walk-on to the best center in the country. Then last month, amid the best season of his life, Oluwatimi had to confront the most gutting challenge he had ever faced when tragedy hit Charlottesville, his former home.
THIS SEASON HAS provided Oluwatimi with clarity, both to anyone who might have doubted whether he could perform on a bigger national stage and to himself. He always believed he was an elite center, always knew he could be the key cog in a power run game. He thrives on being physical. Scratch that. He has a passion for being physical.
It was not hard to see, and easy to understand why Oluwatimi racked up multiple awards earlier this month — the Rimington as the best center in the country, and the Outland Trophy, given annually to the best interior lineman on offense or defense. The individual honors are nice, but Oluwatimi will tell you the one that means the most is the Joe Moore Award, presented to the best offensive line in the country.
Needless to say, Oluwatimi is a big reason Michigan won that award for the second straight year.
“The way he attacks his preparation, the way he attacks the game, he’s an extraordinary player,” Sherrone Moore said. “He’s got elite ability, he’s got strength, he’s got power, he’s got physicality. And he uses all that very well in every situation, and his leadership traits have really pushed the guys because they see how he works, how he is, and they just want to emulate that.”
Oluwatimi has always taken great pride in being a great teammate, now at Michigan and previously at Virginia. After he left the Cavaliers, he stayed in touch with his former teammates and was part of several group texts — including one with offensive linemen who transferred at the same time he did.
The Monday before Michigan’s Nov. 19 game against Illinois, Oluwatimi learned that Virginia football players Devin Chandler, Lavel Davis Jr. and D’Sean Perry were shot and killed after returning home from a class trip. Oluwatimi played with Davis for two years, with Perry for three. Chandler had arrived after Oluwatimi left.
Oluwatimi played against Perry, a defensive lineman, both on the scout team and in practice. The text exchanges between friends and brothers continued that day and throughout the week as he tried to find a way to grapple with the loss while feeling disconnected from those suffering back in Charlottesville.
“It was a rough week,” Oluwatimi said. “To see them gone so soon, it was definitely rough, and I wasn’t around with the team when all that happened, so that was hard not being there with my guys. The team ended up going to three funerals within two weeks, so all the mourning and tears and the family members that have to deal with the loss, it hits home. It’s tough. But they’re in heaven. They’re proud of their teammates. They’re proud of me. We’ve got some angels up in heaven.”
There were phone calls, too, including to teammates who had also left UVA.
“It is a hard thing being detached from the situation, but also being so close to it,” said former Virginia teammate Ryan Swoboda, now at UCF. “We’re in contact with a lot of the guys still on the team, so just being able to talk to them and share stories was the most helpful.”
On the day of the memorial in Virginia, Oluwatimi suited up to take on Illinois. Earlier that week, his father was going in for surgery to remove a brain tumor. Oluwatimi had a lot to deal with, but being on the football field provided him a measure of solace.
“When we’re on that football field, it’s a beacon of togetherness, a beacon of hope, and it’s my happy space,” Oluwatimi said. “When I’m with my guys here, it was definitely a break from the grieving process. So playing football, it was easy for me, and it was actually needed for me.”
Said Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh following the Illinois game: “He has the strength of 10 men. The week he had this week, not only the physical strength of 10 men, but the mental strength of 10 men. The victims at Virginia, that tragedy was personal for him. Those were some of his teammates. And his dad had successful surgery to remove a tumor in his brain. All that was going on for Olu this week. I think back to being that age and there’s no way I could’ve handled that.”
With a heavy heart, Oluwatimi pushed forward to finish the season strong with a Big Ten championship and a spot in the CFP. His dad has since recovered from the surgery, a ray of hope heading into the final stretch of the year.
There is no doubt the biggest on-field tests remain, but if Oluwatimi knows one thing, it is how to handle challenges and doubters.
IT MIGHT FEEL expected now, but out of football hotbed DeMatha Catholic high school in Maryland, nobody saw Oluwatimi for what he could become. With zero Power 5 offers, Oluwatimi opted to go to Air Force as a freshman in 2017, but after a year he realized, “This is not for me.”
He decided to transfer to Virginia, in part because a former high school teammate told him he thought it would be a good fit. Plus, it was much closer to home. As the youngest of six children to Nigerian immigrants, family has always been a bedrock for him.
Oluwatimi arrived as a walk-on in 2018 with familiarity among the coaching staff. Virginia recruited him out of high school but did not offer a scholarship because, in large part, the projections about whether he could add enough weight and mature enough physically were unclear.
“A lot of times, there’s a risk aversion by a program when they don’t know for sure,” Mendenhall said. “After one year of seeing his growth and progress at Air Force, we wish we would have done something earlier. So when we had the second chance to act, it was a much easier decision.”
Playing on his second college team in as many years presents challenges, especially when it comes to getting to know a new set of teammates. But Oluwatimi took a simple approach.
“Every coach and every teammate loves somebody that’s going to lay it on the line and work hard for the squad and be selfless,” Oluwatimi said. “You can’t be fake. So if you’re yourself and you have those qualities of being humble and a hard worker, everybody’s going to love you, and that’s how I’ve been able to mesh with the teams that I’ve been on.”
Indeed, Oluwatimi got to work, putting in long hours both with the team and on his own. In the weight room, he had to work on gaining better flexibility in his hips and functional movement with his entire body. He ran stiff at times, so gaining better fluidity with his lower body was at the top of his list.
All that extra work, whether that meant waking up early, watching extra game tape or staying late to help a teammate, stood out immediately. Swoboda describes Oluwatimi’s preparation as “surgical” because “he takes everything into consideration and works to perfect his craft.”
“He’s in the top 1% of people in strength, speed, agility,” Swoboda said. “He’s in the top 1% of people in terms of his mental understanding of scheme and techniques, and he’s in the top 1% of people who finish plays and are tenacious on the field. So when you’re in the top 1% of those three categories, as an O-lineman, it’s probably a nightmare for defensive lineman.”
Oluwatimi had to sit out 2018 because of the transfer rules that existed back then, but he and then-graduate assistant Jackson Matteo got into a routine. Matteo told Oluwatimi about the Rimington Award. Every drill they did together, Matteo would repeat: Rimington, Rimington, Rimington. “All those words can just mean nothing,” Matteo said. “Or you can literally watch a young man take full responsibility for his destiny and turn it into reality.”
By the time 2019 rolled around, Oluwatimi had earned a scholarship and the starting center job, essentially becoming the assistant to then-offensive line coach Garett Tujague. The two spent countless hours together watching tape. Oluwatimi was responsible for setting the front and calling all protections, and his preparation provided a calming presence on the field, even when things would go wrong.
Former teammate Jack Keenan called it “ironclad emotional control.”
“It is almost impossible to ruffle his feathers,” Tujague said. “I never saw him lose control of the situation he was in. I would come over to the sideline to talk to the linemen and Olu would tell me, ‘Coach, we got it.’ He and I had invested so much in preparing for Saturdays that it made it that much easier.”
Perhaps more indicative of what was to come, Mendenhall had his players go through assessments to determine the best way they learned and communicated. Oluwatimi’s scoring was tilted heavily toward factual, analytical, logical and sequential learning and decision making.
“That is magical for the position he plays,” Mendenhall said. “His ability to identify defensive fronts, in a sequential, thorough way, and then have us in the appropriate run play, check or protection, the number of times that he misses that is almost zero.”
Mendenhall said he noticed Oluwatimi work even harder ahead of the 2021 season. Strength coaches would text him constantly, “Olu is here again.”
“If you put a camera outside of our outdoor and indoor facility at UVA, he probably walked in and out of that building more than anybody,” Swoboda said.
Oluwatimi would hold film sessions to help freshmen and sophomores, and stay after practice to help anyone who needed it. If anyone had a question about technique, formations or alignments, they would text Oluwatimi and he quickly responded.
“Coach Mendenhall had the mantra ‘earned not given,’ and Olu embodies that probably more than anybody else that came to that program,” Keenan said.
When the 2021 season ended, Oluwatimi had earned second-team All-ACC honors and was a finalist for the Rimington Trophy — a first in Virginia history. But when Mendenhall stepped down in December of 2021, Oluwatimi had to make a decision.
“I honestly wanted to go to the NFL, but the draft grades and scouts were telling me to come back to school,” Oluwatimi said. “So I decided to look for a different opportunity to try to elevate my draft grade, because I felt that I did all I could do at the University of Virginia. I wanted to go to a place where I felt that we could compete for a national title and win a conference championship.”
OLUWATIMI WAS TRANSFERRING for the second time in his career. Only this time, Michigan saw exactly who he was.
The Michigan recruiting staff alerted Sherrone Moore as soon as they saw Oluwatimi’s name enter the portal. Michigan was losing center Andrew Vastardis, the anchor of the Joe Moore-award winning offensive line, so this was a position that needed a veteran presence — especially with three starters on the offensive line returning.
“I knew right away who he was, and I went back to watch the film and was like, ‘This guy’s really good,” Moore said. “When he came on his visit, we knew right away he would be awesome, just from a personality standpoint, how he acted, very humble. It was love at first sight for everybody.”
Whether Moore knew it at the time or not, Michigan had always been a dream school for Oluwatimi. The opportunity to showcase his ability as a power run blocker — something that Virginia did not do as an Air Raid offense — only added to the appeal.
“It was a perfect fit,” said Burney, his Virginia roommate. “I remember telling him, ‘If you can put it all together, the sky’s the limit,’ and now we’re here. It’s crazy.”
The same characteristics his Virginia teammates and coaches raved about were on display as soon as he arrived in Ann Arbor last January. He simply worked, and essentially had the playbook down by the time spring practice started.
“He was asking me in the first days of spring ball, ‘Hey, Coach when are we going to put this play in?'” Moore said. “And I was like, ‘It’s not going in until like install seven. He’s like, ‘Oh because I was just looking at them last night and just want to make sure I had it down.'”
His play this season might have been a revelation to those unfamiliar with Virginia and ACC football, but those who have watched Oluwatimi over the past three seasons can’t help but smile.
Former Virginia teammate Martin Weisz decided to visit Oluwatimi in Ann Arbor for the Wolverines’ game against UConn in Week 3. Though the game was a 59-0 blowout win, Weisz recalls watching Oluwatimi interact with his coaches and teammates on the sideline, and again after the game.
“I could just tell even though he was in that offensive line room at Michigan for less than a year, he had already emerged as somebody who everyone could lean on,” Weisz said. “After the game, they always have a tailgate for players and their families, and one of the younger centers was going over film with Olu, asking him all these different questions about football, life, how he manages it all. I know how much they value Olu’s experience, and they truly take his words very, very seriously, just because he’s been through it all.”
Without question, Oluwatimi has elevated the offensive line in Ann Arbor. Michigan ranks No. 6 in the nation in rushing offense, and Moore said his presence was “huge” for McCarthy because “you’ve got somebody in the middle that can help you and get you out of things if you’re unsure.”
Now the biggest test remains. Michigan lost in the CFP semifinals to Georgia last year, in large part because it could not handle the Bulldogs’ defensive front.
This is all new to Oluwatimi but do not expect him to lose focus. That is simply not in his nature. He knows what is at stake, and how much his teammates are depending on him in what is now the biggest game of the season against TCU.
“Through the first 13 games of the year, I’m happy with how I performed and what I’ve done,” Oluwatimi said. “We’ve got two more, and I’ve got to show some more. I’m excited.”
Oluwatimi is now rated the No. 2 center headed into the 2023 NFL draft by both Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay, a far cry from being told to return to school a year ago. NFL scouts are recognizing Oluwatimi, too. But any NFL draft talk has been shoved to the side.
Instead, there has been time for reflection. The night before the regular-season finale against Ohio State, Michigan held a team meeting. As Harbaugh talked, Oluwatimi looked around, taking everything in, appreciating every moment over the last six years as if he was seeing it all for the first time.
“I could have never imagined my college journey bringing me here, being able to compete for a national title,” Oluwatimi said. “As I look back and reflect on the journey, I’m just speechless.”
Miami is inching closer but still needs some help.
With the Hurricanes creeping up to No. 12 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth of six rankings, the ACC’s hope of having two teams qualify for the 12-team field is still alive. Time is running out, though, to convince the selection committee they’re better than Notre Dame — and right now a gap remains in spite of the head-to-head win. The ACC champion — even if it’s No. 18 Virginia — is almost certainly guaranteed a spot as one of the five-highest ranked conference champions. That’s evidenced by the fact that five ACC teams are still ranked above No. 24 Tulane, the only representative from a Group of 5 conference. The question is whether Miami can do enough to join the ACC champion as an at-large team with one game remaining, on Saturday at No. 22 Pitt.
Though the Canes have no margin for error and could still use some help above them, they might get it if Ole Miss doesn’t win the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. No. 6 Oregon jumped one spot above No. 7 Ole Miss, indicating that the Rebels might not recover from a second stumble.
With Rivalry Week on the horizon, there are still plenty of scenarios that can unfold — and hope is still oozing from the bubble.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s fourth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but have work to do or need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the committee’s fourth ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either lock up a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl — or can miss the playoff entirely with a loss to its rival. The debate will come if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. The Tide have played the ninth-hardest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and their résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game. A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it might face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion — or a second Big 12 team.
First team out: Vanderbilt. The Commodores could stay status quo this week, which means at No. 14 they remain a long shot for an at-large bid. Punctuating their résumé with a win against a ranked Tennessee would be the first step, but they’d also need multiple upsets ahead of them to get serious consideration. It’s conceivable, as Miami can lose at Pitt, Oklahoma can suffer a third loss to LSU, and Alabama can lose the Iron Bowl. None of that would matter, though, without a win in Knoxville.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. With the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its place in the top 10. The win against USC boosted the Ducks’ résumé enough to jump Ole Miss, and the complete performance against another ranked contender answered some questions in the committee meeting room. Oregon now has a 16.5% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it must beat Washington and it needs Michigan to defeat Ohio State.
First team out: Michigan. The No. 15 Wolverines are here because they can reach the Big Ten championship game with a win against Ohio State and a loss by Indiana or Oregon. Michigan no longer has to worry about the head-to-head defeat to USC because the Trojans have three losses and dropped behind the Wolverines to No. 17 in the latest ranking. The loss to No. 8 Oklahoma, though, will probably keep them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finish with the same record. Nobody in the country, though, will have a better win than Michigan if it beats the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech does that, it should be a lock for the CFP — win or lose in the Big 12 championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify dropping Texas Tech if its second loss is to a top-11 BYU team that it beat handily during the regular season. The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a home win against UCF on Saturday. They’d be a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket because they’re already in a precarious position and would have lost to the same team twice. They would need multiple upsets to happen above them to stay in consideration as the two-loss Big 12 runner-up.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona and a BYU loss or a win and losses by both Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will reach the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas and both BYU and Arizona State win and Texas Tech loses.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. Miami’s chances of reaching the ACC title game are now 14.2% — third best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are both above 80%. That means their best chance to reach the CFP remains through an at-large bid. They must win at Pitt on Saturday, and it helped that the committee ranked the Panthers No. 22 on Tuesday night. Miami’s loss to SMU no longer looks as bad as it initially did after the Mustangs cracked the CFP top 25 at No. 21. Miami is getting some help, but it has also helped itself by winning three straight games by at least 17 points. Saturday at Virginia Tech brought Miami’s first road win outside of its home state, which is something the committee has been awaiting. Miami’s win against Notre Dame remains one of the best in the country, and the Canes are within range of the committee revisiting the head-to-head tiebreaker. They’re both in the same conversation as Alabama and BYU. If Miami can win at Pitt, the committee will certainly factor that into its discussion during the fifth ranking. It’s important to remember, though, that head-to-head isn’t the only factor in the room. The entire body of work is considered, and right now, the committee is more impressed by the Irish.
First team out: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: If Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game. And with No. 21 SMU now one of five ranked teams from the conference, the ACC title game is likely to feature two ranked opponents. The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (86%) followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest — the latter two of which are above .500. If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the committee’s second-highest-ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth ranking, and the Cavaliers had a bye.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Here’s where you can find your convoluted scenarios. Pitt can get into the ACC championship game with a win and a loss by SMU or UVA. Duke can get in with a win plus losses by two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so many things to happen it might want to find a church instead of playing Georgia.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right — they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with what should be a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching while the conference championship games unfold and possibly alter the picture. Notre Dame fans should be keeping a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games. If Miami beats Pitt, the committee will compare that common opponent with Notre Dame, which also beat Pitt. They would continue to talk about the head-to-head tiebreaker, but that’s not the final determinant. Both Miami and Notre Dame can earn at-large bids, but if there are two Big 12 teams in, someone currently in the top 10 will have to be excluded.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. This is where the committee will probably continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chances to reach the playoff. JMU’s schedule is currently ranked No. 123, while North Texas is No. 127, and that has held both of them back in the committee meeting room. Tulane is No. 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern. The No. 24-ranked Green Wave maintained their spot this week as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team following the 37-13 win at Temple, their largest margin of victory this season.
Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. It will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five teams from the American are still eligible to play in the conference title game, and multiple tiebreaker scenarios are still looming. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. It would clinch with a win if it is the highest-ranked team from the American in the CFP ranking. North Texas would clinch a spot with a win — because Navy was not ahead of Tulane and North Texas in the CFP ranking Tuesday. Navy could clinch a spot with a win and a loss by Tulane or North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s fourth ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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David Hale
We don’t talk nearly enough about luck in sports.
It’s only reasonable to want to believe the best team always wins, that the outcome of a game is the reward for a better process, that, in the end, we all get what we deserve.
But then you watch 10 minutes of Florida State football and it’s impossible to deny that there are football gods at work and they can be awfully vengeful.
And so it is that, at this late point in the season, the College Football Playoff rankings still hinge, in no small part, on a botched extra point at the end of Notre Dame-Texas A&M.
We can look back at Miami‘s game against SMU on Nov. 1 — a game that, with 2 minutes to go the Canes had a 90% chance of winning, according to ESPN’s metrics — and consider it a bad loss, then a week later, see Oregon — with less than a 40% chance of beating Iowa with 2 minutes remaining — pull off a comeback and have it constitute a critical point on the Ducks’ résumé.
Alabama nearly doubled Oklahoma‘s yardage but lost, Ole Miss gave up 526 yards to Arkansas and won, Georgia has trailed in the second half five times this year but has just one loss to show for it.
These things happen, and while there’s clearly valuable data involved — Georgia wins those games, because the Dawgs are really good — any time we’re discussing a one-game sample size, there’s room for ample debate over what matters and what doesn’t.
The committee’s job is to counterbalance the fickleness of luck with a calculated, rational, repeatable process of evaluation that, if applied again and again by dozens of different people, would largely yield the same results; something akin to scientific testing, a way to filter out the noise and get to what matters most. “The process,” as everyone from Nick Saban to Michael Lombardi have called it.
And yet, it’s hard to say exactly what the committee’s process really is. Even when it’s explained — Miami isn’t in the same bucket as Notre Dame, so they can’t be compared directly, for example — the logic often crumbles under the slightest bit of scrutiny.
Instead, the committee has mostly relied on its own luck, and each year, by the time the final rankings are revealed, the 13 games played on the field provide enough clarity that most reasonable people will proclaim the committee got things right, save for the occasional reminder to Florida State that, yes, the football gods are not Seminoles fans.
This year though, it’s increasingly likely the committee’s luck could run out.
We have one full weekend of games left. There are reasonably 16 teams who’ll make a case as to why they should earn one of the seven coveted at-large spots. Without a little luck in Week 14, the committee’s going to have some incredibly hard choices to make.
And that means we’ve got plenty of outrage left to send the committee’s way.
This past week seemed to be the apex of the biggest rankings debate: Notre Dame or Miami?
The argument here is easy to understand. The committee has consistently had the Irish well ahead of the Hurricanes, despite both teams having the same record and Miami holding a head-to-head win.
But you know what’s even easier to understand? BYU has a better record than both.
In fact, let’s look at some résumés.
Team A: Best win vs. SP+ No. 19, next best vs. No. 21. Loss to SP+ No. 2. Two wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 5 strength of record.
Team B: Best win vs. SP+ No. 9, next best vs. No. 25. Loss to SP+ No. 3. Six wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 6 strength of record.
Both look like pretty obvious playoff teams, right?
Well Team A just moved up a spot in the rankings, seems assured not just of making the playoff, but of hosting a home game, and no one seems to be arguing about its spot in the rankings. That’s Oregon at No. 6.
Team B would currently be our first team out, a team with a résumé that shows equally impressive wins, an equally understandable loss and a far more impressive breadth of quality opponents. And yet, no one seems to be arguing much about BYU’s spot in the rankings either.
Why is it that the Cougars — the forgotten one-loss team with a higher ranked win than Oregon or Notre Dame and a better loss than Alabama or Oklahoma — sit at No. 11 and no one seems to care?
We get the frustration over Miami’s placement. There’s plenty of anger to go around. But don’t let BYU get lost in the shuffle. The Cougars’ résumé holds up against all the two-loss teams and is on par with Oregon and Ole Miss. Somehow, the committee — and nearly everyone else outside of Provo — seems to be ignoring it.
Wait, are we really defending Notre Dame here? Hey, somebody’s got to do it.
Let’s take a closer look at the Irish, who’ve become the punching bag for every fan frustrated with the committee’s rankings.
Right now, Notre Dame is effectively the golfer who wrapped up his round early and is waiting in the clubhouse, hoping no one else makes too many birdies. The Irish are safely in the field, and only a road trip to lowly Stanford is left on the docket.
But as the committee’s rankings hold steady week after week, there has been more and more time to debate the merits of Notre Dame’s résumé, and when we reach the end of championship week, it’s hard to ignore that one team aiming for a playoff bid doesn’t actually play in a conference.
So, does Notre Dame really deserve the benefit of the doubt?
In short: Heck yeah.
The Irish have five wins against bowl-eligible opponents — more than Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt or Texas Tech.
Both of Notre Dame’s losses were one-possession affairs against top-12 opponents. The loss to Texas A&M came down to a fluke occurrence, as the Irish flubbed a point after try.
Notre Dame’s game control — about as good an estimation as we have for the eye test — puts the Irish ahead of everyone but Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Tech and Oregon.
In four games since Nov. 1, Notre Dame has beaten its opposition by a combined score of 181-42, lambasting Syracuse so badly in Week 13 that Fran Brown might not shower for a month.
Look at any of the underlying metrics — explosive play rates, defensive stop rates, Jeremiyah Love being awesome rates — and Notre Dame is as good as anyone in the country.
So yes, we get the more logical debates about Miami’s Week 1 win or Alabama’s superior schedule, but the bottom line is, outside of Ohio State, there’s probably no team in the country playing better, more balanced football than the Irish. That probably shouldn’t be the only consideration, but as we debate which teams ought to be docked a few points in the rankings, Notre Dame probably shouldn’t be at the front of the line either.
Yes, Miami has a good argument against the committee’s treatment of the Hurricanes. The committee, too, seems to acknowledge under-appreciating Miami early on, and is adjusting by slowly moving the Canes up one spot each week, hoping that’ll be enough to appease the masses.
But here’s a question: What if Miami’s real beef should be with the ACC, not with the committee?
For each of the past two years, there has been widespread consensus that the ACC’s best team is Miami. But, barring some truly high-level chaos in Week 14 — something the ACC is apt to provide — the Canes won’t be playing for a conference championship again.
When leagues were smaller and had two divisions, the idea of pitting one division champ against the other made intuitive sense. But with expansion and the end of division play, what we’ve gotten is wildly diverse scheduling and the potential for confounding tiebreakers to ultimately decide which two teams get to play for a conference title.
In the Big Ten and SEC, where winning the league isn’t a do-or-die proposition, that’s fine. In the ACC, where only the champion might get a playoff bid and there’s a real chance that six different teams will tie atop the conference with a 6-2 league record — well, that’s a big issue.
So, why not just tweak the rules of how a conference championship game is seeded? What if one spot goes to the team with the best conference record and the other spot goes to the next highest ranked team? Doing so would ensure both the most deserving team (best record) and best team (highest ranked) got a shot, and it would’ve ended any concerns about the ACC being passed by multiple Group of 5 leagues, because a mediocre team like Duke would’ve had no shot at winning the league.
The ACC has bent over backward to try to find unique solutions to potentially existential problems in recent years. This is a change that would be forward thinking, easy and beneficial to the league’s playoff prospects.
It just won’t come in time to save Miami in 2025.
Remember last week when Tulane was also No. 24, just ahead of Arizona State, and behind Illinois, Houston and Missouri, who all lost? It might seem reasonable, given that precondition, that Tulane would then move up, say, three spots or so, while remaining a tick ahead of Arizona State.
But no, a week later, the Green Wave still check in at No. 24, a spot the committee seems to have set aside as “Where we put a Group of 5 team,” like the junk drawer in your kitchen that holds packing tape and birthday candles and those weird scented oils your mother-in-law ordered for you off TV — a placeholder for all the stuff you don’t know what else to do with.
In the big picture, it probably doesn’t matter. As long as Tulane stays ahead of its compatriots in the Group of 5 — winning the American, out-ranking James Madison — the Green Wave will make the playoff. And perhaps that’s all that matters.
But of the teams that jumped Tulane in the rankings this week are Arizona State — still with a chance to win the Big 12 — and Pitt and SMU, who have decent odds of making the ACC title game. Georgia Tech, despite a miserable loss to Pitt, also held firm ahead of the Green Wave.
A year ago, the ACC’s championship game implosion earned Clemson a bid into the playoff, but also shifted the ACC behind Boise State, the best Group of 5 champion, allowing the Broncos to land a bye. The stakes have changed for 2025-26 — the top four conference champs are no longer guaranteed an off week — but that doesn’t mean Tulane should be fine settling for the 12-seed either.
Tulane’s strength of record is ahead of Georgia Tech, Virginia and Pitt. If one of those teams claims the ACC’s playoff berth, what’s the rationale for putting them ahead of the Green Wave? And the difference between the No. 11 seed and the No. 12 seed might be about traveling to the SEC or the Big 12 for a playoff game.
The Group of 5 has largely been set to the side by this committee all year, so none of this comes as a surprise. But Tulane — or JMU or Navy or North Texas or San Diego State — all deserve to be judged on the merits of their résumés, not by which conference they’re affiliated with.
The bottom of the top 25 seems to be prime real estate for the ACC, but the one ACC team who might most deserve one of those coveted spots between 20 and 25 is nowhere to be found.
Wake Forest has the same record as SMU, and it beat the Mustangs head-to-head.
Wake Forest has a better overall résumé than Georgia Tech, and it only lost to the Yellow Jackets (in overtime) as a result of an officiating call the ACC later apologized for.
Wake Forest is a game behind Virginia in the standings, and the Deacons have a head-to-head win over the No. 18 Cavaliers, too.
Look, Wake Forest doesn’t ask for much. The Deacons are like the friend who’s always willing to pick you up from the airport, only better because they’ll probably bring along a box of Krispy Kreme. So if some ACC team that no one respects is going to be ranked 23rd regardless, why not Wake? Because the next time a committee member’s connection gets delayed out of CLT, it won’t be Pitt offering to pick them up and give them an air mattress to crash on. That’s strictly a Wake Forest thing.
Also angry this week: James Madison Dukes (10-1, unranked), North Texas Mean Green (10-1, unranked and now losing their coach), Navy Midshipmen (8-2, unranked), Utah Utes (9-2, No. 13 after being this week’s team that somehow isn’t as good as Miami anymore), Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2, No. 10 and far too close to the edge of the playoff for comfort)
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