Russia’s announcement of an oil export ban on countries that abide by a G-7 price cap is the latest sign that we’ve entered a new era for global energy markets, according to analysts.
But they also note it’s unlikely to have a short-term impact on oil prices, with markets taking their cues from data and concrete actions rather than words.
The price cap was introduced on Dec. 5 and requires traders using Western services such as maritime routes, insurance and financing to pay no more than $60 per barrel for seaborne Russian oil. Urals crude is currently trading around $50 per barrel, according to Finnish refining firm Neste.
Russia on Wednesday said that from Feb. 1 it would stop crude oil and oil products for five months to any nation that adhered to the cap, with a separate ban on refined oil products to come.
Dan Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Tuesday that despite skepticism over whether the program would work, leaders had found a way to keep oil flowing into the market while reducing Russian oil revenues.
But as a result, he said, we now have a “divided, more politically charged oil market.”
“For the last 30 years, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, we’ve had a global market in which oil has pretty much moved around based on the economics, exceptions were Iran and Venezuela.”
“But now we have what I call a partitioned oil market in which Russian oil can no longer go to its largest market, which is Europe, and the markets have been divided and that oil is now flowing east.”
European countries have been scrambling to find alternative sources of oil and gas and new energy security solutions following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February. The EU got 14.4% of its petroleum oils from Russia in the third quarter of 2022, down 10.5 percentage points year-on-year, as it increased imports from the U.S., Norway, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
On Wednesday, a German government spokesperson told Reuters that Moscow’s ban would have “no practical significance” for its economy, which is Europe’s largest.
Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the ban would “add fuel to the anxieties around supply.” Coming just as China’s reopening is set to increase oil demand, oil prices are likely to remain elevated, she told CNBC by email.
However, she added: “To some extent, the export ban will have been priced in already – Russia readily applying pressure to countries which enforce unhelpful policies isn’t a new or unexpected tactic. The shock in the oil price that we’ve seen today isn’t as bad as it could have been and is likely to calm down, at least partly, in the coming weeks.”
Bill Weatherburn, commodities economist at Capital Economics, agreed the immediate market impact would be limited since the move has been threatened by Russia for some time.
He also said this would be the case because the U.S. and Europe have already banned Russian seaborne crude oil imports; and Urals crude is still trading below $60, so India and China can continue to import without falling foul of the cap.
Boom phase
Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” the EU’s embargo on Russian seaborne oil, the oil price cap and Russia’s export ban would be the most significant factors impacting supply next year, and presented a “completely new” scenario.
He expects 2023 and subsequent years to see continued volatility in oil markets. Brent crude oil futures are currently trading around $84 per barrel, near where they started the year, but have been on a rollercoaster in the mean time, approaching $140 per barrel in intraday trading in March and rising above $120 per barrel in June.
McNally believes the market is ending a roughly seven-year bust phase that was characterized by oversupply, and is in the foothills of a new multi-year boom phase that will see stronger than expected demand. That will play out amid big geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, and OPEC+ will struggle to balance the market, he said.
But for now, McNally argued, markets have a “boy who cried wolf” mentality after warnings that Russian supply would be cut off in March 2022 sent prices soaring but did not materialize.
“The market is in a little bit of a complacent mood regarding Russia, saying we’ll believe it when we see it,” McNally said.
Russian seaborne crude oil exports are down around 24% month-on-month in December — “so it’s starting to happen, but the market will wait till it can see it before it prices it in and reacts to it,” he added.
Yamaha has announced to its dealers that it will be pulling its e-bikes out of the North American market at the end of this year. In the meantime, the brand says that it will offer sales of up to 60% off for its remaining inventory and continue to support its e-bikes already sold in the US for at least five more years.
Yamaha’s electric bikes have been well-received in global markets and have also received rave reviews in the US. However, the company’s higher prices make it harder to compete in the North American market, which is dominated by value-oriented models with significantly lower price points.
Yamaha’s various electric bikes designed for commuting, fitness, and mountain biking all feature higher-end components, which has resulted in the company competing more directly with premium bicycle shops. The company’s elaborate frames and in-house motors have added value to their models, yet have also contributed to a more premium price range.
Meanwhile, Yamaha hasn’t been immune to the same sales slowdown and overstocking issues that have plagued the e-bike industry over the last few years, as the company explained to its dealers in the letter seen below.
“Dear Yamaha eBike Dealer,
We want to thank you for your partnership and for your business in purchasing and retailing Yamaha eBikes, and for proudly representing the Yamaha brand. However, as you know, the combination of a post-COVID oversupply within the entire bicycle industry, coupled with a significant softening of the market, has resulted in a particularly challenging business environment where it is extremely difficult to achieve a sustainable business model. Given these market conditions, we regret to inform you that Yamaha has made the difficult decision to withdraw from the U.S. eBike business and cease wholesaling units effective the end of this year.
Yamaha Motor Corporation, U.S.A. (YMUS) entered the U.S. eBike market in 2018, and we have enjoyed the opportunity to partner with you these past six years to sell exciting, high-quality, all-road, mountain, and fitness/lifestyle eBikes.
We will continue to support your dealership in the sell down of your inventory by extending the current “Fan Promotion” program where customers may receive up to 60% off their purchase of a new Yamaha eBike. This “Fan Promotion” program will be offered on all units retailed and warranty registered through June 30, 2025. YMUS will continue to provide parts, service, and customer support in the United States both now and in support of our limited 5-year warranty.
Finally, we wish to express our sincere appreciation and gratitude to you and your staff for your dedication and support of the Yamaha eBike business.
Thank you for your understanding and support.”
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Enbridge, a Canadian energy company, just announced it’s moving forward with an 815-megawatt (MW) solar project called Sequoia in Texas. When it’s done, it’ll be one of the largest solar farms in North America. The project’s price tag is a hefty $1.1 billion.
Enbridge’s Sequoia, around 150 miles west of Dallas, has already landed long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with AT&T and Toyota, ensuring most of its output is sold for years to come. This deal was highlighted in Enbridge’s third-quarter report on Friday.
Sequoia will be built in two phases, with power expected to start flowing in 2025 and 2026. Enbridge says it’s taken steps to reduce risks by securing equipment and procurement contracts in advance. Permits and purchase orders are also locked down.
Toyota’s PPA with Enbridge’s Texas solar project is part of Toyota’s broader push toward sustainability, as the automaker aims to achieve net zero by 2035 and match 45% of its purchased power with renewable electricity by 2026 as it still clings to its “diverse powertrain strategy.”
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With its new electric SUV rolling out, NIO’s (NIO) sales topped the 20,000 mark again in Oct, its sixth straight month hitting the milestone.
NIO sold 20,976 vehicles last month, up 30.5% from October 2023. The NIO brand sold 16,657 vehicles, while its new “family-oriented smart vehicle brand,” Onvo, contributed 4,319 in its first full sales month.
After launching its new mid-size Onvo L60 electric SUV in September, NIO said production and deliveries are steadily ramping up.
At the end of October, NIO’s Onvo had 166 Centers and Spaces throughout 60 cities. Onvo plans to continue expanding its network to drive future growth.
NIO’s new electric SUV starts at around $21,200 (149,900) and is a direct rival to Tesla’s Model Y. The base $21K model is if you rent the battery. Even with the battery included, Onvo L60 prices still start at under $30,000 (206,900 yuan), with a CLTC range of up to 341 miles (555 km). That’s still less than the Model Y.
Tesla’s Model Y RWD starts at around $35,000 (249,900 yuan) with 344 mi (554 km) CLTC range in China.
NIO’s new Onvo brand drives higher Oct sales
NIO has often compared its new electric SUV to the Model Y, claiming it’s superior in many ways. The L60 has better consumption at 12.1 kWh/100km compared to the Model Y at 12.5 kWh/100km).
With a longer wheelbase (2,950 mm vs 2,890 mm), NIO’s electric SUV also provides slightly more interior space.
Despite the L60’s success so far, NIO believes its second Onvo model will be an even bigger hit. It could be a potential game-changer.
“If you think the L60 is good, then this new model is a much more competitive product,” NIO’s CEO William Li told CnEVPost after launching the L60. Onvo will launch a new EV every year. Following the L60, Onvo will launch a new mid-to-large-size electric SUV next year.
NIO’s leader claims the new model will be revolutionary. According to Li, it will offer even more surprises than the L60. Deliveries are planned to begin in Q3 2025.
NIO Onvo L60 vs Tesla Model Y trims
Range (CLTC)
Starting Price
NIO Onvo L60 (Battery rental)
555 km (341 mi) 730 km (454 mi)
149,900 yuan ($21,200)
NIO Onvo L60 (60 kWh)
555 km (341 mi)
206,900 yuan ($29,300)
NIO Onvo L60 (85 kWh)
730 km (454 mi)
235,900 yuan ($33,400)
NIO Onvo L60 (150 kWh)
+1,000 km (+621 mi)
TBD
Tesla Model Y RWD
554 km (344 mi)
249,900 yuan ($34,600)
Tesla Model Y AWD Long Range
688 km (427 mi)
290,900 yuan ($40,300)
Tesla Model Y AWD Performance
615 km (382 mi)
354,900 yuan ($49,100)
NIO Onvo L60 compared to Tesla Model Y prices and range in China
Local reports suggest a six-or seven-seat electric SUV could hit the market even sooner. With rumors of a launch around Q1 2025, deliveries could happen as soon as May 2025.
According to sources close to the matter, the L60 is just a “stepping stone” with even more exciting EVs on the way. The source claimed the new six-seat option will start at around $42,100 (300,000 yuan).
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