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The below is an excerpt from a recent edition of Bitcoin Magazine PRO, Bitcoin Magazine's premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now.

As we head into 2023, we want to highlight the latest state of bitcoin’s volume and volatility after a recent wave of capitulation. Last time we touched on these dynamics was in “The Bitcoin Ghost Town” in October, where we highlighted that an extremely low volume and low volatility period in bitcoin price, GBTC and the options market was a concerning sign for the next leg lower. This played out in early November.

Fast forward and the trends of declining volume and low volatility are back once again. Although this could be indicative of another leg lower to come in the market, it’s more likely indicative of a complacent and decimated market that few participants want to touch.

Even during the November 2021 capitulation period, there was a historically low period of volatility. Sometimes the most market pain can be felt when having to wait for a clear change in trends. The bitcoin price is providing that pain as we’ve yet to see the type of explosion in market volatility that has defined market pivots and major directional moves in the past.

SPX Bottoms

While there are many different ways to define, classify and estimate bitcoin volume in the market, they all show the same thing: September and November 2021 were the peak months of action. Since then, volume in both the spot and perpetual futures markets have been in steady decline.

Bitcoin volume across spot and perpetual futures markets

Overall market depth and liquidity has also taken a major hit after the collapse of FTX and Alameda. Their destruction has led to a large liquidity hole, which is yet to be filled due to the lack of market makers currently in the space.

By far, bitcoin is still the most liquid market of any other cryptocurrency or “token,” but it’s still relatively illiquid compared to other capital markets since the whole industry has been crushed over the last few months. Lower market depth and liquidity means assets are prone to more volatile shocks as single, relatively large orders can have a greater impact on market price. 

Source: Kaiko Q4 Report

Source: Kaiko Q4 ReportOn-Chain Apathy

As expected in the current environment, we’re also seeing more market complacency when looking at on-chain data. Although continuing to rise over time, the number of active addresses — unique addresses active as either a sender or receiver — remain fairly stagnant over the last few months. The chart below highlights the 14-day moving average of active addresses falling below the running average over the last year. In previous bull market conditions, we’ve seen growth in active addresses outpace the existing trend fairly significantly. 

Moving averages of active bitcoin adresseses

Since address data has its flaws, looking at Glassnode’s data for active entities shows us the same trend. Overall, bear markets reversing are the result of many factors, including growth in new users and an increase in on-chain activity. 

Moving averages of active bitcoin entities

Bitcoin transfer volume momentum

Bitcoin seller exhaustion levels

In our July 11 release “When Will The Bear Market End?”, we made the case that the brunt of the price-based capitulation had already been felt, while the real pain ahead was in the form of a time-based capitulation.“A look at previous bitcoin bear market cycles shows two distinct phases of capitulation:

“The first is a price-based capitulation, through a series of sharp selloffs and liquidations, as the asset draws down anywhere from 70 to 90% below previous all-time-high levels.

“The second phase, and the one that is spoken of far less often, is the time-based capitulation, where the market finally begins to find an equilibrium of supply and demand in a deep trough.” — Bitcoin Magazine PRO

We believe time-based capitulation is where we stand today. While exchange rate pressures can certainly intensify over the short term — given the macroeconomic headwinds that remain — the conditions that look likely to persist over the short and medium term look to be a sustained period of chop with extremely low levels of volatility that leave both traders and HODLers questioning when volatility and exchange rate appreciation will return.

Like this content? Subscribe now to receive PRO articles directly in your inbox.Relevant Past Articles:The Bitcoin Ghost TownWhen Will The Bear Market End?On-Chain Data Shows ‘Potential Bottom’ For Bitcoin But Macro Headwinds RemainState Of The Mining Industry: Survival Of The Fittest

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Technology

Meta extends ban on new political ads past Election Day

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Meta extends ban on new political ads past Election Day

Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg plans to visit South Korea, scheduling key meetings during the trip, according to a statement by Meta on Wednesday, which did not provide further details. Reportedly, Zuckerberg is anticipated to meet with Samsung Electronics chairman Jay Y. Lee later this month to discuss AI chip supply and other generative AI issues, as per the South Korean newspaper Seoul Economic Daily, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.

Alex Wong | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Meta extended its ban on new political ads on Facebook and Instagram past Election Day in the U.S.

The social media giant announced the political ads policy update on Monday, extending its ban on new political ads past Tuesday, the original end date for the restriction period.

Meta did not specify the day it will lift the restriction, saying only that the ad blocking will continue “until later this week.” The company did not say why it extended the political advertising restriction period.

The company announced in August that any political ads that ran at least once before Oct. 29 would still be allowed to run on Meta’s services in the final week before Election Day. Other political ads will not be allowed to run.

Organization with eligible ads will have “limited editing capabilities” while the restriction is still in place, Meta said. Those advertisers will be allowed to make scheduling, budgeting and bidding-related changes to their political ads, Meta said.

Meta enacted the same policy in 2020. The company said the policy is in place because “we recognize there may not be enough time to contest new claims made in ads.”

Google-parent Alphabet announced a similar ad policy update last month, saying it would pause ads relating to U.S. elections from running in the U.S. after the last polls close on Tuesday. Alphabet said it would notify advertisers when it lifts the pause.

Nearly $1 billion has been spent on political ads over the last week, with the bulk of the money spent on down-ballot races throughout the U.S., according to data from advertising analytics firm AdImpact.

Watch: Tech still investing big in AI development despite few breakout products.

Tech still investing big in AI development despite few breakout products

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US

Elon Musk can keep giving away $1m to voters, judge rules – as lawyer admits winners aren’t chosen randomly

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Elon Musk can keep giving away m to voters, judge rules - as lawyer admits winners aren't chosen randomly

Elon Musk can keep giving away $1m to voters in battleground states, a judge has ruled – as a lawyer admitted the winners aren’t chosen randomly.

Musk – a supporter of Republican candidate Donald Trump – launched the giveaways last month via America PAC, his political action committee (PAC).

He has already handed out $16m in the scheme, which is open to registered voters in seven key battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – who sign a petition pledging to support free speech and gun rights.

On Monday, Pennsylvania Judge Angelo Foglietta ruled the giveaways could carry on, rejecting a district attorney’s request that he shut it down because it allegedly violated state election law.

US election latest: Harris team reveals when it expects results

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Elon Musk hands out $1m cheques

Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, a Democrat, said it was “a political marketing masquerading as a lottery”, adding “That’s what it is. A grift.”

Judge Foglietta did not explain his ruling on the matter but Chris Gober, a lawyer for America PAC, had argued the winners are not chosen by chance and are instead hand-picked based on who would be the best spokespeople for the group – despite Musk’s assertion that they would be chosen randomly.

More on Donald Trump

Mr Gober said the final two winners before Tuesday’s presidential election will be in Arizona on Monday and Michigan on Tuesday.

He said the recipients “are not chosen by chance”, adding: “We know exactly who will be announced as the recipient today and tomorrow.”

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Musk: Mark Stone’s deep dive

America PAC director Chris Young said recipients are vetted ahead of time to “feel out their personality, (and) make sure they were someone whose values aligned” with the group.

In closing arguments, Musk’s legal team said it was “core political speech” as anyone taking part had to sign a petition endorsing the US Constitution.

Given there will be no more Pennsylvania winners before the programme ends, Musk’s lawyers said any legal bid to stop it under Pennsylvania law was irrelevant.

Launching the plan in the state on 19 October, Musk said they would be “awarding a million dollars randomly to people who have signed the petition every day from now until the election.”

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The following day, he said in a social media post shown in court that anyone signing the petition had “a daily chance of winning one million dollars!”

Musk did not attend the hearing.

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Sports

Cole decides to stay with Yankees on original deal

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Cole decides to stay with Yankees on original deal

Right-hander Gerrit Cole decided Monday to remain with the New York Yankees on the four-year, $144 million contract he opted out of Saturday, the team confirmed late in the day.

Originally, the only way Cole would remain a Yankee without reaching free agency was if the club voided his opt-out with a one-year, $36 million extension to his contract, making it a five-year, $180 million deal. The Yankees declined to do so, however, but they came to an agreement for Cole to remain in New York anyway, as if he had not triggered the opt-out in the first place.

“It was something at the moment we weren’t necessarily comfortable doing, but we wanted our player and our ace back, and he certainly didn’t want to go either at the same time,” Yankees GM Brian Cashman said at the general managers meetings in Texas on Monday. “And so we had a lot of healthy dialogue about trying to just thread the needle and just keep it in play.”

The two sides originally had until Sunday to decide Cole’s fate, but they extended the deadline to Monday at 5 p.m. ET because the conversations were ongoing. Though the Yankees would love to have Cole finish his career in New York, Cashman indicated there are no current discussions on a potential contract extension, citing the timing of the end of the World Series as having played a part in the saga.

“Was a 48-hour window, very small,” Cashman said. “It feels like he legitimately just got off the mound and we were in our discussions. We were wrestling with it [the decision] and sharing that [with Cole]. And at the same time, there is an opportunity that arose that Gerrit didn’t want to go anywhere either.”

Cashman was asked if the team had won a game of chicken with Cole and his representatives.

“No, I don’t look at it as anything other than more conversations we’re having after the opt-out than probably should have happened before the opt-out,” he answered. “And so I think it’s easier to try to understand and find common ground with each other when you’re having the conversations versus a contractual right you exercise and now the other side has to do things instead.”

In other words, the Yankees didn’t feel comfortable with making a fast decision right after the World Series and were ready to let Cole walk but instead offered to kick the discussions down the road.

Cashman had a layover in Charlotte on the way to San Antonio on Monday afternoon, realizing then that the sides were in a good place.

“It felt like we were going to be in a safe harbor where we were both willing to move forward with the four years that was in play and continue obviously to have conversations,” Cashman said. “But there’s no pressure point with any conversations. We’re always open to talk about future years, but right now we don’t have to because it’s a four-year locked-in commitment, and it’s on to our next focus.”

A six-time All-Star, the 34-year-old Cole fulfilled his boyhood dream of joining the Yankees before the COVID-shortened 2020 season on what was, at the time, the largest contract ever given to a pitcher: nine years, $324 million. He became the workhorse ace New York envisioned, posting a 3.08 ERA in 108 starts over the next four seasons, and peaked in 2023, when he went 15-4 with a 2.63 ERA across 209 innings in 33 starts to win his first Cy Young Award. A repeat performance, however, was doomed from the start.

Cole was shut down in mid-March with nerve irritation and edema in his throwing elbow. He avoided surgery but began the season on the injured list. He made three rehab starts before making his season debut June 19 against the Baltimore Orioles. Initially not built up to his usual pitch count, Cole didn’t record an out in the sixth inning in his first four outings.

But the Yankees’ measured plan for Cole paid dividends. The right-hander ultimately logged at least six innings in eight of his 17 starts, posting a 3.41 ERA across 95 innings. He had his occasional blow-up — he surrendered 11 runs in two starts against the Boston Red Sox and 12 runs to the New York Mets in two outings — but was otherwise stingy, allowing two or fewer runs in 10 of his starts. He delivered his best performance in Oakland, holding the A’s to one run over nine innings Sept. 20.

Cole added another five starts in the postseason, pitching to a 2.17 ERA over 29 innings. He limited the Kansas City Royals to one run in seven innings in the Yankees’ American League Division Series-clinching Game 4 win. The Dodgers mustered just one run in six innings against him in Game 1 of the World Series, although the Yankees lost in extra innings.

His final start of the season in Game 5, however, will haunt the Yankees: After four hitless innings, three Yankees defensive miscues in the fifth — including Cole not covering first base on a routine ground ball to first baseman Anthony Rizzo with two outs — allowed the Dodgers to tie the score with five unearned runs in their eventual 7-6 win.

The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Cole with the No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft out of UCLA. He made his major league debut in 2013 and made one All-Star team for Pittsburgh. It wasn’t until he was traded to the Houston Astros after the 2017 season that he became a consistent ace, recording two 200-plus-inning seasons with a 2.68 ERA before hitting free agency and signing with the Yankees in December 2019.

“I think he’s happy where he’s at,” Cashman said. “I think he likes our setup. I think he likes playing for who he’s playing for and working for. And I think he likes his teammates, and I think he thinks we have a legitimate chance to win. And sometimes the grass isn’t always greener, and so that goes for us, too. I know we’d prefer not to be trying to look to how we’re going to replace our ace.”

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