
College football’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 for 2023
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adminThe team that couldn’t win a national championship for more than four decades can’t stop winning them.
After winning its first national title since 1980 last season, Georgia crushed TCU 65-7 on Monday night in the College Football Playoff National Championship presented by AT&T. The Bulldogs became the first team in the CFP era to win consecutive national titles.
And it seems like Georgia coach Kirby Smart is just getting started. With a plethora of young defensive stars, a deep receiver corps and a cupboard full of former five-star recruits coming back, the Bulldogs are the No. 1 team in the 2023 Way-Too-Early Top 25.
The Bulldogs are followed by Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State and Alabama.
CFP participants Ohio State, Georgia and Michigan were all ranked in the top five of last year’s Way-Too-Early Top 25. TCU wasn’t ranked at all.
Among the teams that were ranked too high: Texas A&M (No. 4!), NC State, Oklahoma State and Michigan State. In addition to TCU, teams ranked too low (or unranked) included Tennessee, Kansas State, Washington and Tulane.
Here’s the 2023 Way-Too-Early Top 25:
2022 record: 15-0, 8-0 SEC
Expected returning starters: 6 offense, 6 defense, 1 special teams
Expected key losses: DT Jalen Carter, CB Kelee Ringo, OT Broderick Jones, QB Stetson Bennett, SS Christopher Smith, LB Robert Beal, TE Darnell Washington, C Sedrick Van Pran
Expected key additions: WR Rara Thomas, WR Dominic Lovett, S Joenel Aguero, DE Samuel M’Pemba, DE Damon Wilson, CB A.J. Harris
Outlook: After winning their first national championship in 41 years in 2021 and losing 15 starters to the NFL draft, the Bulldogs did even better by winning an SEC title and finishing unbeaten. The personnel losses shouldn’t be quite as heavy this offseason and another top-three recruiting class will provide help. Sophomore Carson Beck will be the top contender to replace Bennett, who went from an unheralded walk-on to one of the most celebrated players in school history. Tight end Brock Bowers, who had 56 catches for 790 yards and six TDs entering Monday’s game, returns to give Beck a big target. The additions of Thomas and Lovett, who led Mississippi State and Missouri in receiving yards this past season, respectively, should help shore up a thin receiver corps. Five freshmen and sophomores started on defense in 2022, including defensive end Mykel Williams and safety Malaki Starks, who might be the next big things in Athens. Georgia’s nonconference schedule is especially soft in 2023, with games against Ball State, UAB, Georgia Tech and FCS program UT Martin, after a scheduled contest against Oklahoma was canceled.
2022 record: 11-2, 8-1 Big Ten
Expected returning starters: 7 offense, 7 defense, 1 special teams
Expected key losses: QB C.J. Stroud, OT Paris Johnson Jr., OT Dawand Jones, G Matthew Jones, DT Taron Vincent, DE Zach Harrison, S Ronnie Hickman, K Noah Ruggles
Expected key additions: WR Brandon Inniss, DE Jason Moore, OT Luke Montgomery, WR Noah Rogers, TE Jelani Thurman, CB Calvin Simpson-Hunt, G Joshua Padilla
Outlook: It might have been a deflating end to the 2022 season, after the Buckeyes lost to rival Michigan for the second straight season and then fell to Georgia in a CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Bowl. But to suggest that Ohio State isn’t trending in the right direction under coach Ryan Day is laughable. The Buckeyes won 11 games this past season, despite playing without star receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and tailback TreVeyon Henderson for much of the campaign. Henderson is expected back in 2023; Smith-Njigba has already declared for the NFL draft. Kyle McCord, who started against Akron in 2021, will battle Devin Brown for the starting quarterback job in the spring. Whoever wins the job will be surrounded by plenty of playmakers, including receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. Replacing Johnson and Jones on the offensive line will be a priority in the spring. The Buckeyes play road games at Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Michigan in 2023.
2022 record: 13-1, 9-0 Big Ten
Expected returning starters: 6 offense, 8 defense, 0 special teams
Expected key losses: C Olusegun Oluwatimi, DT Mazi Smith, WR Ronnie Bell, OT Ryan Hayes, TE Luke Schoonmaker, CB DJ Turner, DE Mike Moris, K Jake Moody
Expected key additions: LB Ernest Hausmann, OL LaDarius Henderson, DE Josaiah Stewart, OL Myles Hinton, C Drake Nugent, WR Karmello English, RB Cole Cabana
Outlook: The Wolverines face a lot of uncertainty, as coach Jim Harbaugh has been connected to NFL openings in Denver and Indianapolis. For what it’s worth, Harbaugh released a statement last week in which he said he intends to coach the Wolverines in 2023. If Harbaugh leaves, Michigan will probably fall out of the top four. It finally seemed to turn the corner under Harbaugh, defeating rival Ohio State and reaching the CFP in each of the past two seasons. Depending on how many underclassmen return in 2023, Michigan could again be the team to beat in the Big Ten. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy is coming back, and star RB Blake Corum announced Monday he would return after injuring his left knee 11 games into the season. Turner and Big Ten defensive lineman of the year Morris have entered the draft, and linebacker Michael Barrett might as well. Regardless, Harbaugh has built a solid culture and foundation. A handful of additions from the transfer portal might provide some immediate help. Henderson, Hinton and Nugent were multiyear starters in the Pac-12, and Stewart had 12½ sacks at Coastal Carolina in 2021.
2022 record: 10-3, 5-3 ACC
Expected returning starters: 7 offense, 9 defense, 2 special teams
Expected key losses: FS Jammie Robinson, G Dillan Gibbons, G D’Mitri Emmanuel, WR Ontaria Wilson, NT Robert Cooper, OT Jazston Turnetine
Expected key additions: WR Hykeem Williams, TE Jaheim Bell, TE Kyle Morlock, OL Jeremiah Byers, OL Casey Roddick, DT Darrell Jackson, DT Braden Fiske, CB Fentrell Cypress II
Outlook: It has taken longer than Florida State hoped, but the Seminoles have finally turned the corner and might be a legitimate ACC title and CFP contender in 2023. In coach Mike Norvell’s third season, the Seminoles won 10 games for the first time since 2016 and won their last six contests. Quarterback Jordan Travis might be a Heisman Trophy candidate next season, and most of his top running backs and receivers are expected to return. Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin can talk about being the transfer portal king, but Norvell has used it as well as anyone. Top tight end transfers Bell (South Carolina) and Morlock (Shorter) are nice additions. Two starters will have to be replaced on the offensive line; Byers, an All-Conference USA selection at UTEP, and Roddick, a team captain at Colorado, might be able to step right in. Jackson (Miami) and Fiske (Western Michigan) will add good depth to the defensive line, which welcomes back Fabien Lovett and Jared Verse, a potential top-10 pick, who returned for one more season. Cypress was one of the better cornerbacks in the portal.
2022 record: 11-2, 6-2 SEC
Expected returning starters: 5 offense, 5 defense, 1 special teams
Expected key losses: LB Will Anderson Jr., QB Bryce Young, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, LB Henry To’oTo’o, SS Jordan Battle, FS DeMarcco Hellams, G Emil Ekiyor Jr., S Brian Branch
Expected key additions: TE CJ Dippre, WR Malik Benson, OT Kadyn Proctor, OLB Jaquavious Russaw, DT James Smith, S Caleb Downs, CB Desmond Ricks, RB Richard Young
Outlook: It might seem like Alabama has reached a crossroads, but we have to remember how many times we’ve been here before. Yes, the Crimson Tide were uncharacteristically sloppy and undisciplined in 2022. They finished next-to-last in the SEC in penalties and 10th in turnover margin. That was a big reason Alabama lost twice — each on the last play of road games. Replacing Bryce Young, the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner, won’t be easy. Freshman Jalen Milroe struggled with ball security in limited time this past season; Ty Simpson was the No. 2 dual-threat quarterback in the 2022 ESPN 300. Alabama has to figure out a way to get better on the offensive line and at receiver. Benson, a junior college transfer, and Dippre, who caught 30 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns at Maryland in 2022, might provide immediate help. Will Bill O’Brien be back to call plays on offense? Anderson and To’oTo’o won’t be easily replaced on defense.
2022 record: 11-2, 7-2 Big Ten
Expected returning starters: 6 offense, 7 defense, 1 special teams
Expected key losses: QB Sean Clifford, WR Parker Washington, C Juice Scruggs, TE Brenton Strange, CB Joey Porter Jr., DE Nick Tarburton, DT PJ Mustipher, S Ji’Ayir Brown
Expected key additions: WR Devin Carter, CB Storm Duck, P Riley Thompson, S Elliot Washington, G J’ven Williams, G Alex Birchmeier, S King Mack
Outlook: After a couple of mediocre seasons, coach James Franklin has the Nittany Lions headed back in the right direction. Penn State won 11 games in 2022 and might be poised to challenge Michigan and Ohio State for a Big Ten title. Clifford departs at quarterback, but the coaching staff is excited about freshman Drew Allar, who was the No. 2 pocket passer in the 2022 ESPN 300. Many of Penn State’s best players this past season were freshmen or sophomores, including tailbacks Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith, cornerback Kalen King and linebacker Abdul Carter. The defense made tremendous strides under new coordinator Manny Diaz, finishing in the top 20 in the FBS in scoring defense, run defense and total defense. The Nittany Lions will play division crossover games against Iowa (home) and Illinois (road) next season, and they’ll play Ohio State on the road and Michigan at home.
2022 record: 11-3, 8-1 Pac-12
Expected returning starters: 5 offense, 7 defense, 2 special teams
Expected key losses: WR Jordan Addison, G Andrew Vorhees, C Brett Neilon, OT Bobby Haskins, DE Tuli Tuipulotu, RB Travis Dye, CB Mekhi Blackmon, DE Nick Figueroa
Expected key additions: QB Malachi Nelson, WR Zachariah Branch, WR Makai Lemon, ILB Tackett Curtis, DT Kyon Barrs, WR Dorian Singer, LB Mason Cobb, CB Christian Roland-Wallace, OT Michael Tarquin, RB MarShawn Lloyd
Outlook: The Trojans just missed out on winning a Pac-12 championship and reaching the CFP in coach Lincoln Riley’s first season. Then they collapsed late against Tulane and lost 46-45 in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic. This past season looked all too familiar for a Riley-coached team: a Heisman Trophy winner leading an explosive offense and a defense that couldn’t stop anyone. The Trojans will have plenty of firepower coming back on offense in 2023, including Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and receivers Mario Williams, Tahj Washington and Brenden Rice. Singer, who led the Pac-12 with 1,105 receiving yards at Arizona this past season, was a nice addition from the transfer portal. So was Cobb, who had 96 tackles at Oklahoma State, and Roland-Wallace, who started 29 games at Arizona the past three seasons. Tarquin was an important addition with three starters leaving the offensive line. The Trojans will play Notre Dame and Oregon on the road next season, and they’ll get UCLA, Utah and Washington at home.
2022 record: 10-4, 6-2 SEC
Expected returning starters: 10 offense, 5 defense, 2 special teams
Expected key losses: WR Kayshon Boutte, CB Jarrick Bernard-Converse, DL Ali Gaye, DL Jaquelin Roy, LB BJ Ojulari, S Jay Ward, CB Mekhi Garner
Expected key additions: CB Denver Harris, WR Aaron Anderson, DT Paris Shand, DT Jalen Lee, DE Bradyn Swinson, DT Jordan Jefferson, WR Shelton Sampson Jr., CB Javien Toviano, CB Zy Alexander
Outlook: After all the concerns about whether former Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly would be a good cultural fit at LSU, he proved to be what he has always been — a good football coach. The Tigers won 10 games, stunned Alabama and captured the SEC West in his first season. Quarterback Jayden Daniels will return, along with all five starting offensive linemen. Receiver Malik Nabers is a future NFL first-round pick after catching 72 passes for 1,017 yards in 2022. The Tigers will have some holes to fill on defense, but the return of defensive tackle Maason Smith from a torn ACL will outweigh any of them. Kelly dipped into the transfer portal to land Shand, Lee and Swinson to give them SEC-like depth on the defensive front. The Tigers open the 2023 season against Florida State in Orlando, and play SEC road games at Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Missouri and Alabama.
2022 record: 10-3, 7-2 Pac-12
Expected returning starters: 6 offense, 5 defense, 2 special teams
Expected key losses: OT T.J. Bass, G Ryan Walk, C Alex Forsyth, OT Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu, LB Noah Sewell, CB Christian Gonzalez, DE DJ Johnson
Expected key additions: WR Traeshon Holden, WR Tez Johnson, LB Jestin Jacobs, OL Junior Angilau, OT Ajani Cornelius, CB Khyree Jackson, DE Matayo Uiagalelei, CB Daylen Austin
Outlook: Dan Lanning’s first season as a head coach started with a thud, as the Ducks fell to Georgia 49-3 in their opener. But Lanning and his staff did a remarkable job keeping the team together, finishing 10-3 and defeating North Carolina 28-27 in the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl. The good news for 2023: Quarterback Bo Nix announced he’s coming back after throwing for 3,594 yards with 44 total touchdowns. The bad news: Four starters from a very experienced offensive line are expected to depart. Lanning worked the transfer portal hard to pick up Angilau, who was a multi-year starter at Texas before missing 2022 with an injury, and Cornelius, who was one of the top transfers from Rhode Island. Lanning helped build a defense that led Georgia to a national title in 2021, but his first unit at Oregon wasn’t very good. Losing Sewell, Gonzalez and Johnson won’t make things easier. Lanning proved his recruiting chops by signing the No. 8 class in the FBS, according to ESPN Recruiting.
2022 record: 11-2, 6-2 SEC
Expected returning starters: 6 offense, 7 defense, 0 special teams
Expected key losses: QB Hendon Hooker, WR Jalin Hyatt, WR Cedric Tillman, OT Darnell Wright, DE Byron Young, DE LaTrell Bumphus, LB Jeremy Banks, S Trevon Flowers
Expected key additions: QB Nicholaus Iamaleava, DE Chandavian Bradley, WR Cameron Seldon, LB Caleb Herring, OT Andrej Karic, LB Keenan Pili, TE McCallan Castles
Outlook: The Volunteers enjoyed their best campaign in more than two decades and finally returned to national relevancy. Now, Josh Heupel has to replace many of the key pieces from his high-flying offense, including Hooker and star wideouts Hyatt and Tillman. Michigan transfer Joe Milton played well during a 31-14 victory over Clemson in the Capital One Orange Bowl, throwing for 251 yards with three touchdowns. Iamaleava, an incoming freshman from Downey, California, was the No. 6 pocket passer in the ESPN 300. Offensive coordinator Alex Golesh was hired as South Florida’s coach, and Heupel promoted quarterbacks coach Joey Halzle as his replacement. The Volunteers have to figure out a way to get better on defense, and they’ll have to do it without top pass-rusher Young and three other starters. Tennessee will play games against SEC West foes Alabama (road) and Texas A&M (home), and it’ll face Georgia at home.
2022 record: 11-2, 7-2 Pac-12
Expected returning starters: 7 offense, 7 defense, 1 special teams
Expected key losses: G Jaxson Kirkland, C Corey Luciano, G Henry Bainivalu, RB Wayne Taulapapa, DE Jeremiah Martin, LB Cam Bright, S Alex Cook
Expected key additions: WR Germie Bernard, DE Zach Durfee, LB Ralen Goforth, TE Josh Cuevas, DE Joe Moore, RB Daniyel Ngata, CB Jabar Muhammad, CB Caleb Presley, ATH Rashid Williams
Outlook: Kalen DeBoer, who won three NAIA national championships at the University of Sioux Falls, didn’t need long to completely transform Washington’s program. After going 4-8 in 2021, the Huskies finished 11-2 this past season. They beat rivals Oregon and Washington State and four ranked opponents. With quarterback Michael Penix Jr. deciding to come back, along with a handful of other underclassmen who were eligible for the NFL draft, Washington might be a CFP sleeper in 2023. Penix Jr. flourished in DeBoer’s offense, throwing for 4,641 yards with 31 touchdowns. The Huskies will have to rebuild their interior offensive line, but most of its skill players are expected back. Leading tackler Cook and Bright are key losses on defense.
2022 record: 13-2, 9-0 Big 12
Expected returning starters: 5 offense, 7 defense, 0 special teams
Expected key losses: QB Max Duggan, RB Kendre Miller, WR Quentin Johnston, G Steve Avila, C Alan Ali, DE Dylan Horton, DE Terrell Cooper, CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson
Expected key additions: DE Avion Carter, CB Jamel Johnson, OT Markis Deal, WR Cordale Russell, CB Channing Canada, CB Mason White, WR JoJo Earle, CB Avery Helm, WR Jack Bech, OT Tommy Brockermeyer
Outlook: The Horned Frogs struck paydirt in hiring former SMU coach Sonny Dykes, as he led them to a 12-0 record in the regular season and an unexpected trip to the CFP after starting the season unranked. Maintaining that success isn’t going to be easy. With some key additions through the transfer portal, however, TCU should remain a Big 12 title contender. Duggan is gone after a storybook senior season. Chandler Morris, who opened the 2022 season as the starter, is in line to replace him, although Dykes said he might add another passer from the transfer portal. Miller, the leading rusher, and Johnson, the top receiver, are also probably entering the NFL draft. TCU’s nonconference schedule in 2023 includes home games against Colorado, FCS program Nicholls and SMU.
2022 record: 10-4, 7-2 Pac-12
Expected returning starters: 7 offense, 8 defense, 2 special teams
Expected key losses: TE Dalton Kincaid, CB Clark Phillips III, LB Mohamoud Diabate, OT Braeden Daniels, RB Micah Bernard, RB Tavion Thomas, DE Gabe Reid
Expected key additions: LB Levani Damuni, DE Logan Fano, CB Miles Battle, OT Spencer Fano, DE Hunter Clegg, RB Michael Mitchell, ATH Dijon Stanley
Outlook: The Utes have reached unprecedented heights by winning back-to-back Pac-12 championships and making consecutive trips to the Rose Bowl. Unfortunately, both of those games ended in losses after starting quarterback Cam Rising was hurt. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said Rising’s leg injury wasn’t good and his recovery would take a while. It’s unclear how much that affected his decision to return to Utah for one more season. Rising announced on Monday that he’s coming back, and if he’s healthy, the Utes could be very good again in 2023. Kincaid is leaving, along with leading rushers Thomas and Bernard, who entered the transfer portal. Phillips was one of the best cornerbacks in the country and is also departing. Damuni, a team captain at Stanford last season, might be able to replace Diabate at middle linebacker.
2022 record: 9-4
Expected returning starters: 6 offense, 6 defense, 1 special teams
Expected key losses: TE Michael Mayer, QB Drew Pyne, G Jarrett Patterson, G Josh Lugg, DL Isaiah Foskey, S Brandon Joseph, CB TaRiq Bracy
Expected key additions: QB Sam Hartman, LB Jaiden Ausberry, WR Braylon James, OT Charles Jagusah, CB Drayk Bowen, RB Jeremiyah Love, K Spencer Shrader, P Ben Krimm, WR Kaleb Smith
Outlook: Things could have gotten ugly for Notre Dame in Marcus Freeman’s first season as coach, especially after an 0-2 start that included a home loss to Marshall. A 16-14 defeat against Stanford at home wasn’t much better. But Freeman and his staff got things back on track by winning six of seven games, including a 45-38 victory against South Carolina in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. Former starting quarterback Pyne transferred to Arizona State, but the Irish landed former Wake Forest starter Hartman, who has thrown for nearly 13,000 yards with 110 touchdowns during five seasons with Wake Forest. He’ll compete with Tyler Buchner, who had five touchdowns against the Gamecocks. The top three tailbacks and three starting offensive linemen are expected to return, although Mayer won’t easily be replaced. Top pass rushers Foskey and Jayson Ademilola are moving on as well.
2022 record: 11-3, 8-0 ACC
Expected returning starters: 8 offense, 8 defense, 1 special teams
Expected key losses: DT Bryan Bresee, DE Myles Murphy, LB Trenton Simpson, OT Jordan McFadden, QB DJ Uiagalelei, TE Davis Allen
Expected key additions: QB Christopher Vizzina, DT Peter Woods, DT Vic Burley, G Harris Sewell, LB Jamal Anderson, DE Tomarrion Parker, QB Paul Tyson
Outlook: The sky isn’t falling over Death Valley, but Dabo Swinney’s dynasty did seem to show some crack the past couple of seasons. Swinney set the ceiling ridiculously high by winning two national championships in three years, in 2016 and 2018, and the Tigers went a combined 21-6 the past two seasons. But Clemson’s talent level seemed to slip behind Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State, and now much of the star power from its ridiculously talented defensive line is leaving for the NFL draft. Uiagalelei entered the transfer portal after he was benched and transferred to Oregon State. The Cade Klubnik era started during the loss to Tennessee in the Orange Bowl. Four starting offensive linemen are expected back, and receiver Antonio Williams played well as a freshman. There are some solid pieces around Klubnik. The Tigers play nonconference games against Notre Dame (home) and South Carolina (road) in 2023.
2022 record: 8-5, 6-3 Big 12
Expected returning starters: 9 offense, 6 defense, 1 special teams
Expected key losses: RB Bijan Robinson, RB Roschon Johnson, OT Christian Jones, LB DeMarvion Overshown, S Anthony Cook, DE Ovie Oghoufo, NT Keondre Coburn
Expected key additions: QB Arch Manning, CB Anthony Hill, WR Johntay Cook II, RB Cedric Baxter Jr., CB Gavin Holmes, K Ryan Sanborn, CB Malik Muhammad, S Derek Williams
Outlook: The Longhorns made some progress in Steve Sarkisian’s second season, but it might not be enough to quiet critics on the Forty Acres. Sarkisian is 13-12 in two seasons, including a 2-7 record against ranked opponents. This past season, Texas lost five games by seven points or less. For Texas to take the next step before it potentially moves to the SEC in 2024, quarterback Quinn Ewers is going to have to be more accurate and consistent. The Longhorns won’t have Robinson and Johnson to lean on. The good news is four starting offensive linemen are returning, as well as the top three receivers. Overshown and Cook are big losses on defense.
2022 record: 10-3, 6-3 Pac-12
Expected returning starters: 8 offense, 6 defense, 1 special teams
Expected key losses: G Brandon Kipper, WR Tre’Shaun Harrison, WR Tyjon Lindsey, LB Kyrei Fisher-Morris, S Jaydon Grant, CB Alex Austin, CB Rejzohn Wright, LB/FB Jack Colletto
Expected key additions: QB DJ Uiagalelei, OL Grant Starck, DE Oluwaseyi Omotosho, DE Kelze Howard, QB Aidan Chiles, WR Montrel Hatten, DE Nikko Taylor
Outlook: Jonathan Smith has quietly done remarkable work at his alma mater, guiding the Beavers to only their third 10-win campaign in school history this past season. The Beavers closed the season with four straight victories, including a 30-3 rout of Florida in the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl. Oregon State ranked 11th in the Pac-12 in passing in 2022, and Smith hopes Uiagalelei, a former starter at Clemson, can once again find his confidence. Four starting offensive linemen are expected back; Starck, a 12-game starter at Nevada in 2022, might fill the lone hole. Omotosho had 6½ sacks and 46 tackles at Wyoming last season. The Beavers will have to replace three starters in the secondary. Oregon State’s nonconference schedule in 2023 isn’t overwhelming, and it will play Pac-12 opponents UCLA, Utah and Washington at home.
2022 record: 10-4, 7-2 Big 12
Expected returning starters: 8 offense, 6 defense, 1 special teams
Expected key losses: RB Deuce Vaughn, QB Adrian Martinez, WR Kade Warner, NG Eli Huggins, CB Julius Brents
Expected key additions: CB Marques Sigle, WR Keagan Johnson, QB Avery Johnson, LB Asa Newsom, S Will Lee, LB Rex Van Wyhe, LB Terry Kirksey Jr.
Outlook: The Wildcats were the only team to defeat TCU during the regular season, and their 31-28 victory in overtime in the Big 12 championship game earned them a trip to the Allstate Sugar Bowl. Now, the Wildcats will move on without Vaughn, who ran for 3,604 yards and 34 touchdowns during his celebrated career. At least quarterback Will Howard is coming back. All five starters might return on the offensive line if a few seniors decide to come back as super seniors. Defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah and cornerback Ekow Boye-Doe also are mulling over whether to enter the NFL draft. Sigle, a transfer from North Dakota State, could help shore up a secondary that might lose as many as four starters.
2022 record: 12-2, 7-1 AAC
Expected returning starters: 6 offense, 6 defense, 2 special teams
Expected key losses: RB Tyjae Spears, WR Duece Watts, WR Shae Wyatt, OT Joey Claybrook, LB Dorian Williams, LB Nick Anderson, S Larry Brooks, S Macon Clark
Expected key additions: DE A.J. Thomas, RB Trey Cornist, OT Cameron Wire, WR Dontae Fleming, LB Tyler Grubbs, CB A.J. Hampton, S Daruis Swanson, S Kevin Adams
Outlook: The Green Wave’s remarkable turnaround from 2-10 in 2021 to 12-2 in 2022 included an upset of Big 12 champion Kansas State and a stunning comeback victory against USC in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic. They also pulled off a minor upset by keeping coach Willie Fritz from leaving for Georgia Tech. Tulane won its first AAC title and played in its first major bowl game since 1939. Spears, who ran for 1,581 yards with 19 touchdowns, is leaving for the NFL, as well as top wideouts Wyatt and Watts. But quarterback Michael Pratt decided to stick around, and four starting offensive linemen should be back. The defense will have to replace its top four tacklers, which won’t be easy. The Green Wave hosts Ole Miss on Sept. 9.
2022 record: 8-5, 4-4 SEC
Expected returning starters: 7 offense, 6 offense, 1 special teams
Key losses: RB Zach Evans, G Nick Broeker, WR Jonathan Mingo, WR Malik Heath, NT KD Hill, DE Tavius Robinson, LB Troy Brown, S AJ Finley
Key additions: WR Tre Harris, DB John Saunders Jr., K Caden Davis, DL Joshua Harris, LB Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste, WR Chris Marshall, ATH Suntarine Perkins, WR Ayden Williams
Outlook: The Rebels were very good during the first two months of the 2022, starting 7-0 and debuting at No. 11 in the initial CFP selection committee’s rankings. But then the bottom fell out for Ole Miss, as it lost five of its last six games, including the ugly defeat to Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl. Coach Lane Kiffin flirted with Auburn but signed an extension instead. The good news is tailback Quinshon Judkins ran for 1,567 yards with 16 touchdowns as a freshman. Four of five starting offensive linemen are coming back. Jaxson Dart played pretty well but threw 11 interceptions. The Rebels have flirted with two other quarterbacks: Oklahoma State’s Spencer Sanders and Vanderbilt’s Mike Wright. Kiffin signed Harris (Louisiana Tech) and Marshall (Texas A&M) after losing Mingo and Heath, the top two receivers this past season. On defense, three of the top four tacklers are departing, as is leading pass-rusher Robinson.
2022 record: 9-5, 6-2 ACC
Expected returning starters: 7 offense, 8 defense, 2 special teams
Expected key losses: OT Asim Richards, G Ed Montilus, WR Josh Downs, WR Antoine Green, DB Cam’Ron Kelly, DB Storm Duck, DB Tony Grimes
Expected key additions: WR Devontez Walker, WR Nate McCollum, S Derrik Allen, CB Armani Chatman, LB Amari Gainer, CB Alijah Huzzie, K Ryan Coe, G Willie Lampkin, QB Tad Hudson, DT Joel Starlings
Outlook: Quarterback Drake Maye, a leading Heisman Trophy candidate in 2023, is a big reason the Tar Heels are here. He passed for 4,321 yards with 38 touchdowns and led the team in rushing with 698 yards while scoring seven touchdowns. Coach Mack Brown has to find Maye some help. Downs and Green, who were Maye’s favorite targets, are departing; McCollum and Walker led Georgia Tech and Kent State, respectively, in receiving in 2022. Three starters might be back on the offensive line; Brown hired new offensive line coach Randy Clements with hopes of improving the running game and red zone offense. Former UCF offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey replaces Phil Longo, who left for Wisconsin. UNC’s defense was a mess under first-year coordinator Gene Chizik. There’s going to be a ton of turnover in the secondary, which might not be a bad thing. Linebackers Cedric Gray and Power Echols are nice building blocks.
2022 record: 11-3, 8-0 C-USA
Expected returning starters: 8 offense, 7 defense, 1 special teams
Expected key losses: C Ahofitu Maka, G Terrell Haynes, G Kevin Davis, LB Dadrian Taylor, LB Trevor Harmanson, CB Corey Mayfield Jr., FS Clifford Chattman
Expected key additions: DT Vic Shaw, OT Buffalo Kruize, RB Robert Henry, WR Willie McCoy, DE Nnanna Anyanwu, CB Marcellus Wilkerson, QB Owen McCown
Outlook: The Roadrunners’ swan song in Conference USA ended with a second straight conference title and another double-digit-win campaign. UTSA is 23-5 the past two seasons and will move to the AAC in 2023. At least they’ll have quarterback Frank Harris for a seventh season after he threw for 4,059 yards and accounted for 41 total touchdowns. UTSA will have to rebuild its interior offensive line, but almost everyone else is coming back on that side of the ball. UTSA coach Jeff Traylor will have to find a new playcaller; co-offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Will Stein left for Oregon and Matt Mattox was hired as Purdue’s offensive line coach. Three of the top four tacklers are departing, but freshman Trey Moore and Jamal Ligon are coming back.
2022 record: 8-5, 5-4 Big 12
Expected returning starters: 9 offense, 7 defense, 1 special teams
Expected key losses: DE Tyree Wilson, LB Kosi Eldridge, S Marquis Waters, RB SaRodorick Thompson, G Weston Wright, K Trey Wolff, LB Krishon Merriweather
Expected key additions: WR Drae McCray, S CJ Baskerville, C Rusty Staats, DT Quincy Ledet Jr., DE Dylan Spencer, QB Jake Strong, S Brenden Jordan
Outlook: Texas Tech’s hiring of Joey McGuire, a former Texas high school coach who was Baylor’s associate head coach, is already paying big dividends. In his first campaign, the Red Raiders beat Oklahoma and Texas in the same season for the first time, had a winning record in Big 12 play for the first time since 2009 and won their last four games, including a 42-25 victory over Ole Miss in the TaxAct Texas Bowl. Tech rewarded McGuire with a new six-year contract before the bowl game. Tech’s talented receiver corps is going to get even deeper with the addition of McCray, who led the Atlantic Sun in receptions and receiving yards at Austin Peay in 2022. Staats, a two-time All-Conference USA center at Western Kentucky, will help shore up the offensive line. Quarterback Tyler Shough has already announced he’s returning, along with six senior starters on defense who will take advantage of a COVID-19 bonus season.
2022 record: 8-3, 6-2 Sun Belt
Expected returning starters: 5 offense, 9 defense, 1 special teams
Expected key losses: QB Todd Centeio, RB Percy Agyei-Obese, WR Terrance Greene Jr., WR Devin Ravenel, WR Kris Thornton, TE Drew Painter, DT Jamare Edwards, CB Jordan Swann
Expected key additions: QB Jordan McCloud, RB Ty Son Lawton, WR Phoenix Sproles, WR Omarion Dollison, WR Elijah Sarratt, TE Taylor Thompson, DB Tre’Von Jones
Outlook: The Dukes’ first season in the FBS was a smashing success, and they seem built to be a regular contender for a Sun Belt championship. The Dukes knocked off Appalachian State 32-28 and blasted Coastal Carolina 47-7 in the regular-season finale. James Madison wasn’t eligible for a bowl game during its transition from the FCS to FBS. Now, the Dukes will have to rebuild their offense, which loses its starting quarterback, leading rusher and four of its top five receivers. The entire offensive line is expected back, and coach Curt Cignetti brought in two transfer quarterbacks in McCloud (Arizona) and Brett Griffis (Wake Forest). Three receivers were added from the portal as well. The personnel losses won’t be as heavy on defense. The Dukes play road games at Virginia and Utah State and host UConn in 2023.
2022 record: 8-5, 5-4 Big Ten
Expected returning starters: 8 offense, 6 defense, 2 special teams
Expected key losses: LB Jack Campbell, CB Riley Moss, SS Kaevon Merriweather, DL Lukas Van Ness, DE John Waggoner, WR Arland Bruce IV, TE Sam LaPorta
Expected key additions: QB Cade McNamara, TE Erick All, WR Seth Anderson, QB Deacon Hill, LB Ben Kueter, OT Trevor Lauck, DT Anterio Thompson
Outlook: It’s a shame the Hawkeyes were so woefully inept on offense this past season because their defense was very good. Iowa ranked 130th in the FBS in total offense (only New Mexico was worse); it was second in scoring defense (only Illinois was better). Will coach Kirk Ferentz make changes on offense or hope things get better with McNamara, a former Michigan starter, coming on board? Iowa’s offense was plagued by a young offensive line and depleted receiver corps in 2022. The defense loses many of its stars, including Campbell, Moss, Van Ness and Merriweather. As bad as Iowa’s offense was in 2022, three of its five defeats were by seven points or fewer. It can’t get much worse. The Hawkeyes avoid Michigan and Ohio State during the regular season. They play seven home games but travel to Penn State and Wisconsin.
Just missed the Top 25: South Carolina, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, UCLA, Troy, Maryland and Boise State
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Sports
Which MLB pitchers are throwing their best stuff most often, and who shouldn’t be?
Published
20 mins agoon
June 20, 2025By
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Neil PaineJun 20, 2025, 08:00 AM ET
Close- Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.
Pitching is about keeping hitters guessing — and about walking the line between overusing certain pitches to the point of predictability and underusing others that have quietly confounded opponents in limited doses. Now more than ever, each MLB pitcher’s repertoire is scientifically calibrated, from the shape of the ball’s arc as it approaches the plate to the spin it carries and how it looks coming out of the hand. Modern pitchers take their pitch selection as seriously as a Michelin chef planning a gourmet menu.
But even with all of that sophistication, there are inefficiencies in how pitchers deploy their stuff. Many years ago, I dove into the game theory behind pitch selection, and specifically which pitchers were throwing their different pitch types in an optimal way versus those who could stand to tweak their pitch mix a bit to achieve better results.
The thought process went like this: We know from Statcast data how frequently each pitcher throws each type of pitch, and thanks to websites such as FanGraphs, we also know how effective each pitcher’s pitches have been at preventing runs. (We now even know how good each pitch should be based on its characteristics, such as velocity, movement, spin and other factors.)
From this data, we can then find cases where there are mismatches between a pitcher’s most effective pitches and the ones he uses the most.
Of course, not every pitch can be scaled up without diminishing returns. But in general, pitchers who lean more heavily on their best pitches are likely getting more out of their repertoire than those who don’t.
I then developed what I call the Nash Score for pitchers (so named for the Nash equilibrium of Game Theory, which describes a state in which any change in strategy from the current balance would result in less optimal results). Nash Scores work by comparing the runs a pitcher saves with each pitch in his arsenal to the average runs saved by all of his other pitches combined.
Pitchers with low (good) Nash Scores have achieved a close balance in effectiveness between their most-used pitches and the rest of their repertoire, which implies that any change in pitch mix would make them less effective overall. Meanwhile, pitchers who have high (bad) Nash Scores are either using ineffective pitches too much or not using their best pitches enough, suggesting that a reallocation might be needed.
Now is a good time to update Nash Scores for the current era of MLB pitchers.
Let’s highlight the top-15 qualified starters and relievers who have achieved the greatest balance according to their Nash Scores over the past three seasons (with recent years weighted more), as well as the 15 who might be leaving performance on the table.
But first, here is a chart showing all qualified MLB pitchers — using a three-year weighted pitch count — with their Nash Scores plotted against their Wins Above Replacement:
Explore the full, interactive chart.
Now, let’s get to the rankings, starting with the most balanced starters in our sample:
Irvin, Crochet among most optimized starters
Note: Listed rates for pitch types are usage share over the past three seasons and run values per 100 pitches for that pitch, relative to the average for the rest of their pitches combined.
The award for the league’s most balanced starter belongs to perhaps an unlikely name: Washington Nationals righty Jake Irvin. Irvin has been an average pitcher at best in his three MLB seasons, with an ERA of 107 (100 is average and lower is better) and a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 114, and he has never even had 2 WAR in a season yet. But in terms of maximizing his repertoire, the case can be made that no pitcher is getting more out of what he has to work with.
Over the past three seasons (again, with more weight on more recent data), Irvin has almost exclusively used three pitches: four-seam fastball, curve and sinker. Each was within 0.2 runs per 100 pitches of the average of his other offerings, meaning he found the mix where basically all of his pitches are equally effective — the whole point of this entire exercise.
Now, Irvin has drifted a bit away from equilibrium in 2025, using more of his curve (and less of his fastballs) despite them being more effective, so it’s worth keeping an eye on whether he continues to optimize his Nash Score. (Especially since his best-shaped pitch is actually his slider, which he almost never uses!)
Among the rest of the top 15, several other pitchers showed a knack for maximizing their stuff. Garrett Crochet — the nasty left-hander who broke out last year and was dealt from the Chicago White Sox to the Boston Red Sox — pairs an elite fastball with an even more dominant cutter (plus a bit of a sinker-slider), giving him one of the game’s best (and most equalized) pitch mixes.
Fellow Red Sox hurler Kutter Crawford follows the same template, with similarly effective four-seamers and cutters making the bulk of his repertoire. Others strike the balance differently: Jesus Luzardo and Freddy Peralta use more off-speed stuff, while Ryan Pepiot and Corbin Burnes rely on strong fastballs as their primary pitches — but only use them about half the time. And then there are guys such as Taj Bradley and Taijuan Walker, who lead with shaky main pitches, but throw them so infrequently that the rest of their pitches help equalize the overall mix.
It’s also no surprise to see Tarik Skubal, arguably the best pitcher in baseball, grace a list of hurlers who pick from their arsenals in the most efficient way. What everyone on the list has in common is a pitch selection largely in equilibrium, where effectiveness and usage are closely aligned.
Sewald, Poche among most optimized relievers
You’ll likely notice that the top relievers tend to be more optimized (with lower Nash Scores) than the top starters, which is probably an artifact of a few factors: First, relievers usually throw just a couple of pitch types, so it’s inherently easier to align usage with effectiveness when there’s less to balance. Second, those pitches are often thrown in short bursts at maximum intensity, which allows pitchers to rely more heavily on their strengths without diminishing returns. And finally, relievers don’t need to navigate a lineup multiple times, so they can lean on their best pitches more without the same concerns about stamina or predictability that starters face.
That said, some relievers do a better job of balancing than others. Though he has been nursing an injured shoulder since April, Cleveland’s Paul Sewald had been the best over the past few seasons — the two pitches he used 99.7% of the time, a four-seamer and a slider, were both within five hundredths of a run of each other in terms of effectiveness per 100 pitches. The batter knows one is likely coming… but they’re both equally tough to hit.
This was a very common theme among the top relievers, too: Each of the next four names on the list (Colin Poche, Tanner Scott, Joe Jimenez and Alexis Díaz), and eight of the top 11, used a version of that same pitch mix, with fastballs and sliders of near-equal effectiveness making up the vast majority of their pitches. Hey, if it works, it works.
But those who bucked the trend are also interesting. Philadelphia’s Orion Kerkering, for instance, flipped the tendency and relied mostly on a slider with the four-seamer as a change-of-pace pitch. Milwaukee’s Elvis Peguero was exactly 50-50 on sliders and sinkers (though both abandoned him earlier this season, and he has bounced between MLB and AAA), while Nats closer Kyle Finnegan introduces a splitter into the equation — and there’s longtime veteran closer Craig Kimbrel with his knuckle-curve (though it hurt his Nash Score).
Not all of these relievers have been lights-out, but many were, serving as great examples of how to stay effective even when hitters have a good guess at what’s coming.
Blanco, Kelly among least optimized starters
Now we get into some truly fascinating cases, where it’s important to remember that you can still be a great pitcher while still having a deeply strange, and seemingly suboptimal, mix of pitches.
There seem to be a few ways to land on this list: First, and most straightforwardly, you could have a far less effective No. 1 pitch than the rest of your arsenal, meaning you might stand to throw it less and the others more. Both of the top two above, Houston’s Ronel Blanco and Arizona’s Merrill Kelly, have primary four-seamers that are at least 1.5 runs worse per 100 pitches than their other options, and secondary off-speed pitches that are at least 2.4 runs better than the rest — classic cases where the Nash Score would suggest bringing them closer to balanced until the difference begins to flatten out.
Then there are cases such as Joe Ryan, Michael Wacha, Dylan Cease, Chris Sale and Michael King, in which their No. 1 option is clearly the best, but they throw other, much less effective pitches nearly as much, reducing the advantage of a dominant primary pitch. Spamming the top choice might lead to diminishing returns, but there’s room to give there before it starts being a suboptimal strategy.
And finally, we have the odd case of Paul Skenes — and Gavin Williams too, but Skenes is more fun to dissect — in which somehow the primary four-seamer is less effective than the other pitches, and so is the secondary breaking pitch, suggesting the need to dig deeper into the bag more often. But how can you argue that Skenes isn’t doing the most he can? He literally leads all pitchers in WAR. The thought he could optimize his stuff even more is terrifying.
Kahnle, Bender among least optimized relievers
Finally, we get to the less optimal end of the reliever spectrum. And as stable as the opposite side was, with a bunch of guys using their boring fastball-slider combos to carefully record outs, this one contains more varied pitch mixes. Well-represented, for instance, is the phenomenon I found with R.A. Dickey the first time around — that despite his knuckleball being both his best pitch and the one he used most often, the Nash Score implied he should throw it even more because it was much more effective than the rest of his offerings.
While we don’t have any knucklers in the bunch this time, we do have guys such as Detroit Tigers setup man Tommy Kahnle, whose lead pitch is a changeup (not a fastball) so effective that it’s nearly four runs per 100 pitches better than the rest of his repertoire. Pitchers who work backwards like this must mix in fastballs to keep hitters honest — but at the same time, the fastballs are much less valuable that using them slightly less might be good even if it makes the change less effective. (Anthony Bender, Brenan Hanifee, Steven Okert, David Robertson, Greg Weissert and Cade Smith were in this category as well, among others.)
Just as odd were the cases of Ryan Helsley, Justin Lawrence and John Brebbia, whose primary pitches were far less effective than their secondary options, despite each essentially having only two pitches to work with. The numbers might be asking for those hierarchies to be flipped around.
And finally, there are guys such as Kenley Jansen, who spam one solid pitch — but they don’t have much else to work with, so any deviation worsens performance, even if the Nash Score still dings them for imbalance.
In the end, no metric — not even one rooted in Game Theory — can capture the full complexity of pitching. But Nash Scores do give us a window into something that’s often hard to pin down: How much a pitcher gets out of what they’re working with, and whether they’re winning the rock-paper-scissors aspect of the batter-pitcher showdown.
Some get the most out of average stuff through smarter allocation. Others leave value on the table despite electric arsenals. In either case, the path to better performance might be as simple (or difficult) as throwing the right pitch at the right moment just a little more often.
Sports
Oregon lands No. 1-rated safety, nephew of Kobe
Published
2 hours agoon
June 20, 2025By
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Eli LedermanJun 19, 2025, 09:57 PM ET
Close- Eli Lederman covers college football and recruiting for ESPN.com. He joined ESPN in 2024 after covering the University of Oklahoma for Sellout Crowd and the Tulsa World.
Four-star prospect Jett Washington, ESPN’s No. 1 safety in the 2026 class, announced his commitment to Oregon over Alabama and USC on Thursday night.
Washington is a 6-foot-5, 210-pound defender from Las Vegas and the nation’s No. 22 prospect. The top-ranked four-star recruit in the 2026 ESPN 300, he trails only five-star tight end Kendre’ Harrison (No. 11 overall) as the highest rated of the Ducks’ six top-300 pledges in the current cycle.
Washington enters the fall as a third-year starter at Las Vegas powerhouse Bishop Gorman, where he logged 38 tackles and five interceptions during his junior season in 2024. A nephew of the late Los Angeles Lakers legend Kobe Bryant, Washington helped lead Bishop Gorman to a second consecutive Nevada Class 5A state basketball title earlier this year.
Washington’s pledge is a much-needed recruiting win for Ducks coach Dan Lanning after a string of near misses with top-end talents this spring.
Last month, Oregon whiffed as finalists for five-stars Jackson Cantwell (No. 3 overall) and Jared Curtis (No. 5). As recently as Thursday morning, five-star athlete Brandon Arrington (No. 14) picked Texas A&M after a hotly contested race between the Aggies and Ducks.
But Oregon, alongside Alabama, was among the first major programs to enter Washington’s recruitment last year. Through Washington’s connection with Oregon defensive backs coach Chris Hampton, the program held an edge heading into Washington’s slate of official visits with the Ducks, Crimson Tide and Trojans.
“I have that great time with [Hampton] and the coaching staff,” Washington told ESPN this month. “I loved the way they treated me out there. My relationship with them has been going the right way ever since I started talking to them.”
With his pledge, Washington becomes the top-ranked defender in Oregon’s 2026 class. He is one of three ESPN 300 commits on defense for the Ducks, joining defensive tackles Tony Cumberland (No. 89 overall) and Viliami Moala (No. 262).
Sports
CFP meetings wrap with all formats still on table
Published
2 hours agoon
June 20, 2025By
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Leaders of the College Football Playoff are still “mulling over” what the format should look like in 2026 and beyond, CFP executive director Rich Clark said Wednesday following the conclusion of two days of meetings in Asheville, North Carolina.
“Pretty much everything’s on the table, and they’re taking a good look at it all of it,” Clark said. “So, I wouldn’t say there’s a leading contender right now for them, but they’re taking a fresh look at it.”
Last month, at the SEC’s spring meetings in Destin, Florida, there was new support from the head football coaches for a 16-team model that would include the five highest-ranked conference champions and 11 at-large teams. That quickly gained traction and public support from other leagues, but it also surprised many leaders in the Big Ten Conference.
Many athletic directors in both leagues had been aligned in their desire to have automatic qualifiers that would guarantee both conferences four spots each in the playoff, with play-in games to determine whom the third and fourth playoff participants would be. Following the SEC’s spring meetings, many sources in the Big Ten have indicated that they wouldn’t even consider a 5+11 model unless the SEC and the ACC both go to nine conference games.
The Big Ten and the SEC have the bulk of control of the next iteration of the playoff, but the two conferences haven’t been on the same page recently in terms of what that should look like.
“They’re obligated to come to an agreement on what the format is,” Clark said.
SEC commissioner Greg Sankey has said repeatedly that he wanted more clarity on the selection process before determining if the league should move to a nine-game schedule, and much of this week’s meetings were spent studying metrics, including strength of schedule. Clark said the CFP brought in a mathematician from Google to help the group, which included all 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua.
“I would say a lot of it is refreshing our metrics,” Clark said. “Some of these metrics were put into place with a whole different look at the way college football was laid out and the conferences were structured.
“I wouldn’t say it’s dramatic, but it’s a refresh. We looked at some of our processes and how we do things within the selection committee meeting room. Some of the things we brought up to the table for them to consider, but just things to help us get better.”
Clark reiterated something Sankey said at his spring meetings and multiple other sources have surmised: The current 12-team model remains an option for 2026 and beyond. Whatever they decide, Clark said, they’d like to do it by the fall, and they’re not looking to postpone the decision by keeping the status quo for another season.
“I don’t think they’re going to kick the can a second year,” Clark said. “They’re going to make a decision on what they think that whole period should look like.”
The CFP did decide this week to incorporate sports wagering monitoring and will have its staff determine the details of it. The playoff also will use player availability reports, which would be handled in a similar way to what some conferences already do, Clark said.
“We’re going to take that model on,” he said. “We have some work to do on that, though, to perfect it and to ensure that we’re doing it the right way, but that will be an important position for the CFP.”
Clark said there has been progress but that the group still has “lots of space to still make some decisions.”
“I don’t know if there’s any hurdles they have to get over; I think they just want to make sure they get it right,” Clark said. “That’s going to be six years of format that they’re deciding, and rushing to a bad decision is not in any of our best interests. They want to make sure they look at all the options and understand what the pros and cons are and make the best decision they can rather than trying to rush to something that may not suit us for the next phase of the CFP.”
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