Connect with us

Published

on

Never in recent history, perhaps, have so many Americans viewed the Supreme Court as fundamentally partisan.

Public approval of the nine-justice panel stands near historic lows. Declining faith in the institution seems rooted in a growing concern that the high court is deciding cases on politics, rather than law. In one recent poll, a majority of Americans opined that Supreme Court justices let partisan views influence major rulings.  

Three quarters of Republicans approve of the high court’s recent job performance. But Democrats’ support has plummeted to 13 percent, and more than half the nation overall disapproves of how the court is doing its job. 

Public support for the high court sank swiftly last summer in response to Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, a landmark ruling that revoked a constitutional right to abortion. The decision delighted many conservatives but defied a large majority of Americans who believe abortion should be legal.  

Anti-abortion advocates celebrate outside the Supreme Court in Washington on June 24, 2022, following the court’s decision to end constitutional protections for abortion that had been in place nearly 50 years. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

Yet, partisan anger runs deeper than Dobbs. Liberals are fuming about a confluence of lucky timing and political maneuvering that enabled a Republican-controlled Senate to approve three conservative justices in four years, knocking the panel out of synch with the American public.  

Judged by last year’s opinions, the current court is the most conservative in nearly a century, at a time when a majority of Americans are voting Democratic in most elections. Democrats say the court no longer mirrors society, a disconnect that spans politics and religion. All six of the court’s conservatives were raised Catholic, a faith that claims roughly one-fifth of the U.S. population. 

Republicans counter that the high court’s job is to serve the Constitution, not to please the public. 

“The Left was used to, for the most part, getting its way with the court,” said John Malcolm, a senior legal fellow at conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation. “Now that the Left is not getting its way with the court, they’re trying to tear it down and delegitimize it.” 

Legal scholars may not care much about the high court’s popularity, but they care deeply about its legitimacy.  

And what is legitimacy? James L. Gibson, a political scientist at Washington University in St. Louis, defines it as “loyalty to the institution. It is willingness to support the institution even when it’s doing things with which you disagree.” 

Americans remained steadfastly loyal to the high court for decades, Gibson said, embracing it even after the powder-keg Bush v. Gore decision of 2000, which decided an election.   Members of Congress near bottom of ethics ratings: Gallup

But then, with Dobbs, the high court suffered “the largest decline in legitimacy that’s ever been registered, through dozens and dozens of surveys using the same indicators,” Gibson said. “I’ve never seen anything like it.” 

One Gallup poll, taken after someone leaked a draft of the Dobbs ruling, found that only 25 percent of the American public had confidence in the court, the lowest figure recorded in a half century of polling. 

Around the same time, journalists revealed that Ginni Thomas, wife of high court Justice Clarence Thomas, had pressed state lawmakers to help overturn former President Trump’s 2020 defeat at the polls.  

“The idea that you have the spouse of a Supreme Court justice advocating for overthrowing the government — sui generis, I think,” said Caroline Fredrickson, a visiting law professor at Georgetown University, invoking the Latin term for “unique.” 

With the high court’s legitimacy eroding, Gibson said, the panel faces “greater institutional vulnerability to congressional manipulation.”  

An unsympathetic legislature could add seats to the court, “packing” it to dilute the influence of the conservative majority. Congress could impose term limits on justices who now serve for life. Lawmakers could narrow the court’s jurisdiction, limiting its authority to hear contentious cases. 

“Practically nothing about the court is free from congressional manipulation,” Gibson said. “And, man, John Roberts is aware of this.” 

President Donald Trump, left, walks with Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts on Monday, July 22, 2019, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

The chief justice has emerged as a voice of moderation on the right-leaning panel. One Gallup poll, taken in December 2021, found that 60 percent of Americans approved of how Roberts was handling his job. Roberts outpolled other A-list leaders, including the president, vice president and leaders of the House and Senate. 

“He’s the justice who twice saved Obamacare,” Malcolm said. Roberts joined the court’s liberals in rejecting legal challenges to health care reform by a popular president.  

“He’s the justice who said, ‘I would not have overturned Roe v. Wade,’” Malcolm said. While he joined his conservative colleagues in the majority on Dobbs, Roberts wrote in a concurring opinion that he would have preferred not to reverse the 1973 abortion decision, but instead to rule more narrowly on the case at hand.  

Roberts, chief justice since 2005, has defended the court’s legitimacy in public remarks since Dobbs. Legal scholars say he is keenly aware that his court is drifting away from the mainstream of public opinion.  

“I think Chief Justice Roberts cares a lot about the optics,” Fredrickson said. 

In its first term with a six-person conservative bloc, the high court overturned Roe, posited a Second Amendment right to carry guns in public and restricted the government’s role in combating climate change, among other rulings.  

According to a scholarly database, the Dobbs court delivered its most conservative term since 1931.  

In previous decades, by contrast, “the U.S. Supreme Court has rarely been out of step with the preferences of its constituents, the people,” Gibson said. “Throughout history, the court has ratified the views of the majority, not opposed them.” 

If the current court has a historical precedent, it is the Warren court of the 1950s and 1960s. The panel led by Chief Justice Earl Warren inspired mass protests with decisions that expanded civil rights and outlawed segregation in public schools.  

“You ended up having ‘Impeach Earl Warren’ signs throughout the Southeast during this time,” Malcolm said.  

But even the Warren court didn’t cleave the nation by political party.  

“While the divisions over the Warren court may have been just as deep or deeper, they didn’t break down deeply along party lines,” said Ilya Somin, a law professor at George Mason University. “There used to be liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats.” 

Over the decades, the transfer of presidential power between parties has guaranteed a steady stream of liberal and conservative appointees to maintain political balance on the court. Former Presidents Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama each appointed two Supreme Court justices in a two-term, eight-year presidency.  

And then came President Trump, who collaborated with a Republican Senate to deliver three justices in a single term. 

Trump’s first appointment, Neil Gorsuch, plugged a vacancy Obama had attempted to fill with Merrick Garland, now the attorney general. The Republican Senate majority blocked Garland, stalling until the 2016 election in hope that a Republican candidate would prevail. Democrats howled. 

Trump’s second pick, Brett Kavanaugh, followed a more orderly process but seeded even more controversy when a congressional witness, Christine Blasey Ford, accused the nominee of sexual assault.  

Trump’s third appointment, Amy Coney Barrett, arrived on the eve of the 2020 election. This time, the Republican majority chose not to await the results. Again, Democrats howled. 

Members of the Supreme Court sit for a new group portrait following the addition of Associate Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, at the Supreme Court building in Washington, Friday, Oct. 7, 2022. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Barrett replaced Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a liberal icon who had clung to her seat through two bouts of cancer before dying in office at 87. Liberal strategists had urged her to resign during the Obama presidency. Some progressives fault her still for not stepping down.  

In the months to come, President Biden and congressional Democrats could restore the court’s ideological balance by packing it with liberals, or hobble it by narrowing its jurisdiction. But they probably won’t, legal observers say, because the Republicans could one day weaponize the same tools against the Democrats. 

Far more possible, in the long term, is a bipartisan consensus to impose term limits on the court. With medical advances extending human life, high-court justices now routinely serve for 30 years. Lifetime appointment “gives them a bizarrely monarchical sort of power,” Fredrickson said.  

A 2021 bill proposed 18-year terms, with the president allowed to nominate a new justice every other year.  

Two-thirds of the public support term limits. But Republicans have little incentive to back legislation that, from their perspective, solves a nonexistent problem. 

“There’s a good chance that, sooner or later, we will get term limits for the Supreme Court,” Somin said. “But later is more likely than sooner.” 

Continue Reading

Business

Germany: Europe’s largest economy is facing a third consecutive year of recession

Published

on

By

Germany: Europe's largest economy is facing a third consecutive year of recession

Forget this week’s minor decrease in the UK inflation number. 

The most important European data release was the confirmation from Germany that, during 2024, its economy contracted for the second consecutive year.

Europe’s largest economy shrank by 0.2% during 2024 – on top of a 0.3% contraction in 2023.

Now it must be stressed that this was a very early estimate from Germany’s Federal Statistics Office and that the numbers may be revised higher in due course. That health warning is especially appropriate this time around because, very unexpectedly, the figures suggest the economy contracted during the final three months of the year and most economists had expected a modest expansion.

Money latest: Guinness rival’s sales surge 632%

If unrevised, though, it would confirm that Germany is suffering its worst bout of economic stagnation since the Second World War.

The timing is lousy for Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, who faces the electorate just six weeks from now.

More on Germany

Worse still, things seem unlikely to get better this year, regardless of who wins the election.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

How young people intend to vote in Germany

Germany, along with the rest of the world, is watching anxiously to see what tariffs Donald Trump will slap on imports when he returns to the White House next week.

Germany, whose trade surplus with the United States is estimated by the Reuters news agency to have hit a record €65bbn (£54.7bn) during the first 11 months of 2024, is likely to be a prime target for such tariffs.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Fallout of Trump’s tariff plans?

Aside from that, Germany remains beset by some of the problems with which it has been grappling for some time.

Because of its large manufacturing sector, Germany has been hit disproportionately by the surge in energy prices since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago, while those manufacturers are also suffering from intense competition from China. The big three carmakers – Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW – were already staring at a huge increase in costs because of having to switch to producing electric vehicles instead of cars powered by traditional internal combustion engines. That task has got harder as Chinese EV makers, such as BYD, undercut them on price.

Other German manufacturers – many of which have not fully recovered from the COVID lockdowns five years ago – have also been beset by higher costs as shown by the fact that, remarkably, German industrial production in November last year was fully 15% lower than the record high achieved in 2017.

German consumer spending, meanwhile, remains becalmed. Consumers have kept their purse strings closed amid the economic uncertainty while a fall in house prices has further depressed sentiment. While home ownership is lower in Germany than many other OECD countries, those Germans who do own their own homes have a bigger proportion of their household wealth tied up in bricks and mortar than most of their OECD counterparts, including the property-crazy British.

Consumer sentiment has also been hit by waves of lay-offs. German companies in the Fortune 500, including big names such as Siemens, Bosch, Thyssenkrupp and Deutsche Bahn, are reckoned to have laid off more than 60,000 staff during the first 10 months of 2024. Bosch, one of the country’s most admired manufacturing companies, announced in November alone plans to let go of some 7,000 workers.

More of the same is expected in 2025.

Volkswagen shocked the German public in September last year when it said it was considering its first German factory closure in its 87-year history. Analysts suggest as many as 15,000 jobs could go at the company.

Accordingly, hopes for much of a recovery are severely depressed.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Starmer in Germany to boost relations

As Jens-Oliver Niklasch, of LBBW Bank, put it today: “Everything suggests that 2025 will be the third consecutive year of recession.”

That is not the view of the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, whose official forecast – set last month – is that the economy will expand by 0.2% this year. But that was down from its previous forecast of 1.1% – and growth of 0.2%, for a weary German electorate, will not feel that different from a contraction of 0.2%.

And all is not yet lost. The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates more aggressively this year than any of its peers. Meanwhile, one option for whoever wins the German election would be to remove the ‘debt brake’ imposed in 2009 in response to the global financial crisis, which restricts the government from running a structural budget deficit of more than 0.35% of German GDP each year.

The incoming chancellor, expected to be Friedrich Merz of the centre-right CDU/CSU, could easily justify such a move by ramping up defence spending in response to Mr Trump’s demands for NATO members to do so. Mr Merz has also indicated that policies aimed at supporting decarbonisation will take less of a priority than defending Germany’s beleaguered manufacturers.

But these are all, for now, only things that may happen rather than things that will happen.

And the current economic doldrums, in the meantime, will only push German voters to the extreme left-wing Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht or the extreme right-wing Alternative fur Deutschland.

Continue Reading

World

Israeli cabinet due to approve ceasefire as Netanyahu insists deal not finalised

Published

on

By

Israeli cabinet due to approve ceasefire as Netanyahu insists deal not finalised

Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed Hamas has backtracked on an earlier understanding of the ceasefire agreement, which is awaiting the approval of the Israeli government.

The Israeli prime minister said the group was objecting to part of the agreement which would give Israel the ability to veto the release of certain Palestinian prisoners.

Hamas was trying to dictate which Palestinian prisoners would be released, he said.

Follow live: Gaza ceasefire deal

Palestinians stand among the rubble of houses destroyed in previous Israeli strikes in Gaza City.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Palestinians stand among the rubble of houses destroyed in Israeli strikes in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters

“Among other things – contrary to a specific clause that grants Israel the veto power over the release of mass murderers who are symbols of terrorism, Hamas is demanding to dictate the identities of these terrorists,” the prime minister’s office said in a statement.

It said Mr Netanyahu has told Israeli negotiators to stand firm on the earlier agreement. Hamas is yet to respond.

Any deal will need to be approved by Mr Netanyahu’s security cabinet and then his government.

Since the agreement has been announced at least 32 people have been killed in heavy Israeli bombardment in Gaza, medics reported.

Strikes continued into Thursday morning, flattening houses in Rafah in southern Gaza, Nuseirat in central Gaza and in northern Gaza, local residents said.

The ceasefire deal does not come into force until Sunday.

The announcement comes after weeks of painstaking negotiations in Doha against the backdrop of a war in Gaza that has left tens of thousands of Palestinians dead and many more injured and displaced from their homes.

Much of the densely-populated territory has been razed to the ground as Israel launched a ground offensive following the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023 which left 1,200 people dead and around 250 people taken hostage.

Read more:
A timeline of events in more than a year of war
Faces of 94 hostages who still haven’t returned home
What does the agreement say?
The war in numbers

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

15 months of the Gaza war explained

What’s in the deal?

The deal outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase that includes a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from central Gaza and the return of Palestinians to north Gaza, the Reuters news agency reported, citing an official briefed on the agreement.

Hamas will release 33 hostages, including all women, children and men over the age of 50, the agency said.

In return for the release of the hostages, Israel will free between 990 and 1,650 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

Israel will release 30 Palestinian detainees for every civilian hostage and 50 Palestinian detainees for every female Israeli soldier that Hamas releases.

There will also be a surge of humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza as part of the agreement, which requires 600 aid trucks to be allowed into Gaza each day.

Negotiations over a second phase of the agreement are to begin on the 16th day of phase one and are expected to include the release of all remaining hostages, including male Israeli soldiers, a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces.

A third phase is expected to include the return of the bodies of the dead hostages and the beginning of Gaza’s reconstruction, supervised by Egypt, Qatar and the UN.

Analysis: This deal wouldn’t have happened without Trump

An end to this long war is finally in sight

Finally, after 467 days of fighting, a ceasefire agreement has been approved.

Within minutes, there were celebrations in Gaza. Palestinians were cheering on the streets of Khan Yunis, a city that is barely standing after 15 and a half months of war.

In Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, where weekly demonstrators calling for a deal have brought parts of the city to a standstill, there is now an outpouring of hope and relief that their loved ones might be home soon.

The deal will need to be approved by the Israeli security cabinet, expected to meet on Thursday – despite opposition from some far-right politicians, it should pass.

The Supreme Court in Jerusalem will be given the opportunity to hear objections relating to the Palestinian prisoners who will be released in the deal – that should be a relatively swift process and is unlikely to hold up the deal.

But the hard yards are complete, the two sides are in agreement and an end to this long war is finally in sight.

Shortly after the ceasefire deal was announced, Hamas’ acting Gaza chief Khalil al-Hayya said in a televised address that Israel failed to achieve its goals in the Palestinian territory.

He also vowed Hamas will neither forgive nor forget Israel’s actions in Gaza.

Continue Reading

Technology

TSMC net profit hits record high as fourth-quarter results top expectations on robust AI chip demand

Published

on

By

TSMC net profit hits record high as fourth-quarter results top expectations on robust AI chip demand

A logo of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is seen during the TSMC global RnD Center opening ceremony in Hsinchu on July 28, 2023. (Photo by Amber Wang / AFP)

Amber Wang | Afp | Getty Images

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company‘s fourth-quarter revenue and profit beat expectations, as demand for advanced chips used in artificial intelligence applications continued to surge.

Here are TSMC’s fourth-quarter results versus LSEG consensus estimates:

  • Net revenue: 868.46 billion New Taiwan dollars ($26.36 billion), vs. NT$850.08 billion expected
  • Net income: NT$374.68 billion, vs. NT$366.61 billion expected

TSMC profit rose 57% from a year earlier to a record high, while revenue jumped 38.8%. The firm had forecast fourth-quarter revenue between $26.1 billion and $26.9 billion.

As the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer TSMC produces advanced processors for clients such as Nvidia and Apple and has benefited from the megatrend in favor of AI.

TSMC’s high-performance computing division, which encompasses artificial intelligence and 5G applications, drove sales in the fourth quarter, contributing 53% of revenue. That HPC revenue was up 19% from the previous quarter.

“The surging demand for AI chips has exceeded expectations in Q4,” Brady Wang, associate director at Counterpoint Research told CNBC, adding that revenue was also bolstered by demand for the advanced chips in Apple’s latest iPhone 16 model.

The Taiwan-based company first released its December revenue last week, bringing its annual total to NT$ 2.9 trillion — a record-breaking year in sales since the company went public in 1994.

“We observed robust AI related demand from our customers throughout 2024,” Wendell Huang, chief financial officer and vice president at TSMC, said in an earnings call on Thursday, adding that revenue from AI accelerator products accounted for “close to a mid-teens percentage” of total revenue in 2024.

“Even after more than tripling in 2024, we forecast our revenue from AI accelerators to double in 2025 as a strong surge in AI-related demand continues as a key enabler of AI applications,” Huang added.

However, TSMC may face some headwinds in 2025 from U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductor shipments to China and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy of President-elect Donald Trump.

TSMC Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei said the company will not attend Trump’s inauguration as its philosophy is to keep a low profile, Reuters reported.

Trump, who will assume office next week, has threatened to impose broad tariffs on imports and has previously accused Taiwan of “stealing” the U.S. chip business. .

Still, Counterpoint’s Wang forecasts 2025 to be another strong year for TSMC, with significant revenue growth fueled by strong and expanding demand for AI applications, both in diversity and volume.

Taiwan-listed shares of TSMC gained 81% in 2024 and were trading 3.75% higher on Thursday.

Stocks of European semiconductor companies trading on the Euronext Amsterdam Stock Exchange rose Thursday, with ASML up 3.5%, ASM International gaining 3.75% and Besi rising 5.1%.

Continue Reading

Trending