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The economy grew by 0.1% in November, partly aided by the football World Cup, according to official figures which call into question predictions the UK is already in recession.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed pressure on demand from the effects of high inflation but a boost from people packing pubs and bars to watch events unfold on the pitch in Qatar.

Economists had predicted a negative growth figure – of around 0.2%.

The figure for November came on the back of a positive growth reading the previous month, largely explained by activity getting back to normal after disruption to output from the late Queen’s death.

The additional bank holiday for the funeral in September saw most businesses close.

The Bank of England is among public bodies to have forecast that the UK fell into recession during the third quarter of 2022.

Should a reading by the ONS for the October to December period show a negative growth figure, then the economy will have met the criteria for recession: two consecutive quarters of contraction.

It seems the possibility will be tight.

The ONS said that gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3% in the three months to November.

That incorporates the decline of 0.6% in output measured during September and the 0.5% recovery in October.

ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan said: “The economy grew a little in November, with increases in telecommunications and computer programming helping to push the economy forward.

“Pubs and bars also did well as people went out to watch World Cup games.

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“This was partially offset by further falls in some manufacturing industries, including the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry, as well as falls in transport and postal, partially due to the impact of strikes.

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Firms fret over energy-led costs

“Over the last three months, however, the economy still shrank – mainly due to the impact of the extra bank holiday for the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth in September.”

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the economy would need to shrink by 0.6% or more in December for the fourth quarter of 2022 to contract as a whole – triggering a technical recession.

The prospect of avoiding such a downturn is easing not only in the UK but across Europe and in the US too but it does not mean that all is rosy.

Business groups warned that many sectors were struggling – and needed the support of government to protect jobs as energy-led costs continue to stifle orders and investment.

Pressure on squeezed consumers too is set to intensify as the Bank of England is still forecast to maintain interest rate increases to help inflation ease over the first half of 2023, raising bills in the process as mortgage costs climb.

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Food inflation reaches record levels

In its reaction to the GDP data, the living standards-focused think-tank the Resolution Foundation said that while a 2022 recession was now likely to have been avoided, family incomes were still shrinking.

Jonathan Moyes, head of investment research at the Wealth Club investor service, said of the UK’s prospects: “We have seen retailers report stronger than expected earnings reports for Q4 over the past week, and it appears a stronger than expected consumer services and services more broadly have helped the UK economy defy gloomy expectations.

“It may be too soon to mark the beginning of a turn in sentiment for the UK, but a quiet consensus appears to be forming.

“Energy prices are falling sharply, China is reopening and interest rate expectations have eased significantly,” he wrote.

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‘Sixteen killed’ in strike on Gaza hospital as Israel says it hit ‘Hamas command centre below’

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'Sixteen killed' in strike on Gaza hospital as Israel says it hit 'Hamas command centre below'

At least 16 people have been killed and 70 others were injured at a hospital in Gaza following an Israeli strike, according to the health ministry.

Nine missiles hit the European Hospital and its courtyard in the south of the Palestinian territory, officials said.

Israel said it had hit a “Hamas command centre” beneath the hospital in Khan Younis.

Hamas denies exploiting hospitals and civilian properties for military purposes.

Middle East latest – Trump signs Saudi arms deal

Palestinians inspect the damage after the European Hospital was partially damaged following Israeli airstrikes. Pic: Reuters
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The scene after the European Hospital was partially damaged following Israeli airstrikes. Pic: Reuters

Earlier, a well-known Palestinian photojournalist died following a separate attack on the Nasser Hospital, also in Khan Younis, said the ministry.

Hassan Aslih had been accused by Israel of working with Hamas and was recovering from an earlier airstrike.

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Aslih, who has hundreds of thousands of followers on social media, was said by the Israelis to have recorded and uploaded footage of “looting, arson and murder” during Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack into Israel that triggered the war in Gaza.

Aslih was one of two patients who died in Tuesday’s strike on Nasser Hospital, said the health ministry. Several others were wounded.

SENSITIVE MATERIAL. THIS IMAGE MAY OFFEND OR DISTURB Mourners carry the body of Palestinian journalist Hassan Aslih who was killed in an Israeli strike while he was recovering at Nasser Hospital from an earlier strike, during his funeral in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip May 13, 2025. Aslih was accused by Israel of working with Hamas. REUTERS/Hatem Khaled TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
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Mourners carry the body of Palestinian journalist Hassan Aslih. Pic: Reuters

Dozens of people were being treated on the third floor of the hospital building, where the missiles struck, Reuters said, quoting Ahmed Siyyam, a member of Gaza’s emergency services.

The Israeli military said it “eliminated significant Hamas terrorists” in Nasser Hospital, among them Aslih, who it said had “operated under the guise of a journalist”.

Footage showed heavy damage to one of the hospital buildings, including to medical equipment and beds inside.

At least 160 journalists and media workers have been killed in Gaza since the start of the war, according to the International Federation of Journalists.

Gazan officials accuse Israel of deliberately targeting journalists. Israel denies this and says it tries to avoid harm to civilians.

Aslih, who headed the Alam24 news outlet and had previously worked with Western news outlets, was recovering after being wounded last month in a deadly strike on a tent in the Nasser Hospital compound.

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Meanwhile, President Trump has spoken on the phone to Edan Alexander after he was released by Hamas on Monday, as part of ongoing efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire with Israel.

The 21-year-old was believed to be the last living American hostage in Gaza.

Some 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage in the 7 October attack on southern Israel, according to Israeli figures.

Israel’s response has killed more than 52,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, and destroyed much of the coastal territory. Gaza’s health ministry records do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

An aid blockade since March has left the population at critical risk of famine, according to the World Health Organisation, which warned on Tuesday that hunger and malnutrition could have a lasting impact on “an entire generation”.

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Trump to lift sanctions on Syria – as he announces $600bn deal with Saudi Arabia

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Trump to lift sanctions on Syria - as he announces 0bn deal with Saudi Arabia

Donald Trump has said the US will lift long-standing sanctions on Syria and signed a $600bn (£450bn) deal with Saudi Arabia as he visited the nation as part of a tour of the Middle East.

The US president revealed the US plans to lift sanctions on Syria following talks with Saudi Arabia‘s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Mr Trump was speaking at the US-Saudi investment conference during a four-day trip to the region.

Analysis: US-Saudi relationship feels tighter than ever as Trump signs flurry of deals

The comments follow Air Force One being escorted by Royal Saudi Air Force F-15s as it approached the kingdom’s capital, with Mr Trump welcomed by the crown prince, Saudi’s de facto ruler, as he stepped off the plane.

President Trump said the relationship between the were nations were “stronger and more powerful than ever before”, adding it would “remain that way”.

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How Trump’s Saudi visit unfolded

‘Largest defence cooperation agreement’

Mr Trump and Prince Mohammed signed several agreements aimed at increasing cooperation between their governments, including a commitment to $600bn in new Saudi investment in the US – though Mr Trump said a trillion dollars (£750bn) would be even better.

The US also agreed to sell Saudi Arabia an arms package worth nearly $142bn (£107bn), which the White House called “the largest defence cooperation agreement” Washington has ever done.

Royal Saudi Air Force F-15s provide an honorary escort for Air Force One. Pic: AP
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Royal Saudi Air Force F-15s provide an honorary escort for Air Force One. Pic: AP

In his speech, President Trump also urged Iran to take a “new and a much better path” and make a new nuclear deal with the US.

Speaking at the conference, Mr Trump said he wants to avoid a conflict with Iran but warned of “maximum pressure” if his olive branch was rejected.

Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

“As I have shown repeatedly, I am willing to end past conflicts and forge new partnerships for a better and more stable world, even if our differences may be profound,” he said.

“If Iran’s leadership rejects this olive branch… we will have no choice but to inflict massive maximum pressure, drive Iranian oil exports to zero.”

He added: “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. But with that said, Iran can have a much brighter future, but we’ll never allow America and its allies to be threatened with terrorism or nuclear attack. The choice is theirs to make.”

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President Donald Trump gestures next to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh. Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

Normalising relations with Syria

Mr Trump said he would ease US sanctions on Syria and move to normalise relations with its new government ahead of a meeting with its new leader Ahmad al Sharaa on Wednesday.

The Syrian president was formerly an insurgent who led the overthrow of former leader Bashar al Assad last year.

Mr Trump said he wants to give the country “a chance at peace” and added: “There is a new government that will hopefully succeed. I say good luck, Syria. Show us something special.”

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The US leader also said he hoped Saudi Arabia would soon join the Abraham Accords and recognise Israel “in your own time”.

Saudi Arabia has argued its recognition of Israel would be tied to the establishment of a Palestinian state along the lines of Israel’s 1967 borders.

Mr Trump will travel to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates over the next three days.

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US-Saudi relationship feels tighter than ever as Trump signs flurry of deals

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US-Saudi relationship feels tighter than ever as Trump signs flurry of deals

In today’s Saudi Arabia, convention centres resemble palaces. 

The King Abdul Aziz International Conference Centre was built in 1999 but inside it feels like Versailles.

Some might call it kitsch, but it’s a startling reflection of how far this country has come – the growth of a nation from desert bedouins to a vastly wealthy regional powerbroker in just one generation.

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Trump signs deal with Saudi Arabia

At a bar overnight, over mocktails and a shisha, I listened to one young Saudi man tell me how his family had watched this transformation.

His father, now in his 60s, had lived the change – a child born in a desert tent, an upbringing in a dusty town, his 30s as a mujahideen fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan, his 40s in a deeply conservative Riyadh and now his 60s watching, wide-eyed, the change supercharged in recent years.

The last few years’ acceleration of change is best reflected in the social transformation. Women, unveiled, can now drive. Here, make no mistake, that’s a profound leap forward.

Through a ‘western’ lens, there’s a way to go – homosexuality is illegal here. That, and the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, are no longer openly discussed here.

Bluntly, political and economic expedience have moved world leaders and business leaders beyond all that.

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Trump visit is ‘about opulence’

The guest list of delegates at the convention centre for the Saudi-US Investment Forum reads like a who’s who of America’s best business brains.

Signing a flurry of different deals worth about $600bn (£451bn) of inward investment from Saudi to the US – which actually only represent intentions or ‘memorandums of understanding’ at this stage – the White House said: “The deals… represent a new golden era of partnership between the United States and Saudi Arabia.

“From day one, President Trump‘s America First Trade and Investment Policy has put the American economy, the American worker, and our national security first.”

Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

That’s the answer when curious voters in faraway America wonder what this is all about.

With opulence and extravagance, this is about a two-way investment and opportunity.

There are defence deals – the largest defence sales agreement in history, at nearly $142bn (£106bn) – tech deals, and energy deals.

Underlying it all is the expectation of diplomatic cooperation, investment to further the geopolitical strategies for both countries on key global challenges.

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Trump says US will end sanctions on Syria

In the convention centre’s gold-clad corridors, outside the plenary hall, there are reminders of the history of this relationship.

There is a ‘gallery of memories’ – the American presidents with the Saudi kings – stretching back to the historic 1945 meeting between Franklin D Roosevelt and King Saud on board the USS Quincy. That laid the foundation for the relationship we now see.

Curiously, the only president missing is Barack Obama. Sources suggested to me that this was a ‘mistake’. A convenient one, maybe.

It’s no secret that the US-Saudi relationship was at its most strained during his presidency. Obama’s absence would give Trump a chuckle.

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From Monday: Why does Saudi Arabia love Trump?

Today, the relationship feels tighter than ever. There is a mutual respect between the president and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – Trump chose Saudi Arabia as his first foreign trip in his last presidency, and he’s done so again.

But there are differences this time. Both men are more powerful, more self-assured, and of course the region has changed.

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There are huge challenges like Gaza, but the two men see big opportunities too. A deal with Iran, a new Syria, and Gulf countries that are global players.

It’s money, money, money here in Riyadh. Will that translate to a better, more prosperous and peaceful world? That’s the question.

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